Eutrophication Assessment in Coastal WatersEutrophication Assessment in Coastal WatersA Decade of ChangeA Decade of Change

New Jersey Water Quality Monitoring Council Meeting September 6, 2007

NJDEP HQ – Public Hearing Room, Trenton, NJ

S.B. BrickerNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Silver Spring, MD, USA

http://www.eutro.orghttp://www.eutro.us

The Context and Guiding LegislationThe Context and Guiding LegislationUS Clean Water Act of 1972, US Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act of 1998

EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), EU UWWTD and Nitrates Directives – Definition of Sensitive Areas and Vulnerable Zones

Eutrophication is a significant problem worldwide (US, EU, Baltic, Mediterranean, Japan, Australia and elsewhere)

http://www.eutro.orghttp:;//www.eutro.ushttp://ian.umces.edu/neea

The Problem The Problem –– The Assessment ApproachThe Assessment Approach

High algal production (High algal production (ChlChl))Loss of water clarityEpiphyte problems

MacroalgalMacroalgal problemsproblems

Fish kills Loss of habitat

Human health risksLoss of tourism

Closed fishing grounds

Loss of SAVLoss of SAVLow D.OLow D.O

Nuisance/Toxic blooms (Nuisance/Toxic blooms (HABsHABs))

IncreasedN and P concentration

Symptoms and Consequences of Nutrient EnrichmentNutrient Inputs Primary Secondary Consequences and Processing Impacts Impacts of Symptoms

P: Influencing Factors – Natural processing + Human Nutrient LoadS: Overall Eutrophic Condition – Condition of waterbodyR: Future Outlook – What will happen in the future?

NEEA/ASSETS: Pressure NEEA/ASSETS: Pressure -- State State -- ResponseResponse

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Key Aspects of NEEA/ASSETS approachKey Aspects of NEEA/ASSETS approachThe NEEA approach may be divided into three parts:

Division of estuaries into homogeneous areasEvaluation of data completeness and reliabilityApplication of indices

Tidal freshwater (<0.5 Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psupsu) ) Mixing zone (0.5Mixing zone (0.5--25 25 psupsu))Seawater zone (>25 Seawater zone (>25 psupsu))

Spatial and temporal quality Spatial and temporal quality of datasets (completeness) of datasets (completeness) Confidence in results Confidence in results

(sampling and analytical (sampling and analytical reliability)reliability)

State:State: Overall Eutrophic Condition index Overall Eutrophic Condition index ((ChlChl, , macroalgaemacroalgae, , HABsHABs, DO, SAV loss), DO, SAV loss)

Pressure:Pressure: Overall Human Influence index Overall Human Influence index (susceptibility + nutrient load)(susceptibility + nutrient load)

Response:Response: Future Outlook index Future Outlook index (susceptibility + future nutrient load)(susceptibility + future nutrient load)

Guide for management, research, monitoringGuide for management, research, monitoring

Pressure: Influencing Factors

Moderate

Moderate Low

Low

Moderate High

Moderate

Low

High

Moderate High

Moderate Low

Overall Human Influence

Nutrient PressuresLow Moderate High

Low

Mod

erat

eH

igh

Susc

eptib

ility

Susceptibility + Nutrient Inputs = Overall Human Influencedilution & flushing land based or oceanic

StateState: Overall Eutrophic Condition: Overall Eutrophic Condition

Moderate

Moderate Low

Low

Moderate High

Moderate

Moderate Low

High

High

Moderate High

Overall Eutrophic Condition

Secondary Symptoms Low Moderate High

Low

Mod

erat

eH

igh

Prim

ary

Sym

ptom

s

ResponseResponse: Future Outlook: Future Outlook

Future outlook is based on susceptibility and projected changes in nutrient pressures:

Susceptibility is the capacity of a system to dilute or flush nutrients

Nutrient pressurechanges are based on expected population changes, future treatment and remediation plans and changes in watershed use (particularly agricultural)

Improve High

Improve Low

ImproveLow

No Change

No Change

No Change

WorsenLow

WorsenHigh

WorsenHigh

Future Outlook For Eutrophic Conditions

Future Nutrient PressuresDecrease No Change Increase

Hig

hM

oder

ate

Low

Susc

eptib

ility

Region Human Influence Primary(No. systems) (M – H) >50% NPS NPS from Ag*No. Atlantic (18) 33 78 0Mid Atlantic (22) 100 91 60So. Atlantic (22) 81 100 81Gulf of Mexico (38) 95 100 85Pacific (39) 82 89 50US Total (139)** 68 92 56Portugal (10) 30 89 67China (4) 75 ? ?

as percentage of systemsUS from SPARROW model estimates, PT from Ferreira et al 2003*for US: >30% though most are >70% from ag, for PT: ag is most significant nonpt source* *Early 2000s: 44 of 64 (~70%) systems evaluated had moderate to high influencing factors

Influencing FactorsInfluencing Factors

Overall Eutrophic ConditionOverall Eutrophic Condition

? UnknownHighModerate High

Moderate LowLow

Moderate

TagusSado

Mira

MinhoMinhoLimaLima

DouroDouro

Ria de Aveiro

MondegoMondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

??

?

?

ChinaChina

http://ian.umces.edu/neeahttp://www.eutro.us

1990s – 84 of 121 assessed systems M to H17 systems unknown

2000s – 64 of 99 assessed systems M to H42 systems unknown

Future OutlookFuture Outlook

ChinaChina

http://ian.umces.edu/neeahttp’//www.eutro.us

1990s – 71% assessed systems – worsen7% assessed systems - improve

2000s – 65% assessed systems – worsen20% assessed systems - improve

? Unknown No Change

Worsen High Improve Low

Worsen Low Improve High

TagusSado

Mira

MinhoLima

Douro

Ria de Aveiro

Mondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

?

?

ASSETS SynthesisASSETS Synthesis

USUS US US EUEU CNCN1990s1990s 2000s2000s

HighHigh 22 11 22 11GoodGood 1919 55 22 11ModerateModerate 2828 1818 22PoorPoor 5353 1111 11BadBad 1818 1313 11UnknownUnknown 1919 9393 44 ManagementManagement

Changes 1990s Changes 1990s –– 2000s2000s

Analysis was possible for 58 of 141 systemsAnalysis was possible for 58 of 141 systems

Improved: 13 systems (9%) assessed surface areaImproved: 13 systems (9%) assessed surface area

Worsened: 13 systems (14%) assessed areaWorsened: 13 systems (14%) assessed area

Remained the sameRemained the same: : 32 systems (77% assessed area)32 systems (77% assessed area)

Due to management efforts, primarily point sourceDue to management efforts, primarily point source

Due to population increase and associated activitiesDue to population increase and associated activities

Mid Atlantic Lagoon SystemsMid Atlantic Lagoon Systems

14148686100100ChlChl aa131363635050HABsHABs

% change% change2004200419991999Mid Atlantic RegionMid Atlantic Region

% assessed systems with % assessed systems with Moderate & High symptom Moderate & High symptom

expressionexpression

Classification based on physical and hydrologic characteristics – nutrients will be processed differently in systems that flush well or flush poorly and management strategies will be different

A top-down classification resulted in 7 types. DISCO gives 6 types but semi-enclosed lagoons were not included

TagusSado

Mira

MinhoLima

Douro

Ria de Aveiro

Mondego

RiaFormosa

Guadiana

Spa

inS

pain

A top-down classification resulted in 14 types.DISCO gives 10 types.

Typology: DISCO Cluster ResultsTypology: DISCO Cluster Results

Eutrophication control Eutrophication control ������������

Phytoplankton removal31000 kg C y-1

N removal (kg y-1)Algae -4822POM -13151Excretion 3745Faeces 3545Mass balance -10683

Population equivalents3237 PEQ y-1

Shel

lfish

ffilt

ratio

n

Density of 500 oysters m-3

180 day cultivation period11 μg L-1 chl a initial3.3 kg N y-1 PEQ

Shellfish farming: 2300 k€ y-1

Sewage treatment: 2000 k€ y-1

Total income: 4300 k€ y-1

ASSETS INCOME PARAMETERS

Chl aO2

Detritus removal84540 kg C y-1

National and International PartnersNational and International Partners

Thank You!Thank You!