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www.epa.gov/researchSustainable and Healthy Communities Research
U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development
Evaluating ecosystem service trade-offs associated
with biofuel feedstock production in the Midwest
Randy Bruins and Betsy SmithNational Exposure Research Laboratory
ACES 2010
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
U.S. EPA’s Ecosystem Services Research Program• Program goal:
To transform decision-making by showing how society’s choices affect the type, quality and sustainability of services we receive from ecosystems
• Program emphases:– Develop ecological production functions
– Consider whole systems, examine trade-offs
– Learn how to support decisions
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Future Midwestern Landscapes Study:Change drivers of interest
• Biofuels– Potential for rapid, large-scale
changes in land use or land management
– Implicit trade-offs among ecosystem services
• Agricultural conservation practices– Existing area of large investment,
uncertain benefit– Increasing interest in ecosystem
service-based incentives and markets
Locations of ethanol biorefineries and FML boundary
Conservation Reserve Program Participation($/acre)
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Future Midwestern Landscapes Study:Decision-makers’ questions
• How will today's land use decisions affect trade-offs of future ecosystem services?
• What land-use configurations afford the best combinations of ecosystem services?
• What indicators of ecosystem service changes communicate the vulnerabilities and opportunities?
• How can we facilitate conservation and restoration of ecosystem services?
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
• Production of food, fiber and fuel• Clean air• Climate moderation (via carbon sequestration)• Water provision• Flood moderation• Aquatic habitat to support wildlife-based
recreation • Terrestrial habitat to support wildlife-based
recreation
Future Midwestern Landscapes Study:Ecosystem service trade-offs of interest
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Overview of present FML alternative-futures research approach
ScenarioDefinition
LandscapeConstruction
Landscape Analysis
Assessment& Management
Base Year
BiofuelTargets
Multiple Services
Socio/Economicprojection
Landscapedevelopment
Adapt/applymodels
Evaluateservices
Online “EnvironmentalDecision Toolkit”
Testing withuser groups
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
(Megan Mehaffey)
Enhanced Land Cover Data for FML– Combines the best of NLCD, NASS Crop Data Layer, and LANDFIRE using a set of rules
Includes crop type as well as rotation
Implications for better estimation of nutrients and pesticides loads/export
Better assessment of crop yields
Base Year Scenario Landscape (2001-2)
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
FML Base Year Landscape – Enhanced NLCD 2001/2002:Comparison of Traditional and Expanded NLCD Agriculture Classes
Traditional NLCD classes do not distinguish crop types.
Between 2006 and 2007, there was a 19% increase in corn plantings nationwide, mostly from conversion of soybean plantings.
N fertilizer need for corn is ~ 8 times that of soybeans.
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Biofuel Targets Scenario (2022)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bill
ions
of G
allo
ns
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Calendar Year
Renewable Fuel StandardEnergy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Cellulosic biofuel
BiodieselAdditional advanced biofuel
Additional renewable biofuel
Market Allocation (MARKAL) econometric model• Energy supply and demand
Sets conditions for:
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) econometric model
• Agricultural supply and demand• Projects crop acres / region
Results disaggregated using soils data, tillage practices, etc.
Tim JohnsonRebecca DodderOzge Kaplan& ISU/CARD
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Continuouscorn
Detail for Corn Belt area in Illinois
In the Corn Belt, corn/soybean rotation will change to continuous corn, requiring greater chemical inputs and depleting soil productivity
Corn/soybeanrotation
Projection of 2022 landscape changes due to biofuel targets:Parcel change from corn/soybean to continuous corn
(Megan Mehaffey)
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Development of “Multiple Services” Landscapevia a two-stage optimization
Spatially-explicitES production
functions
Optimize % land-use
Select optimal parcels
for reassignment
HUC8 Level Parcel Level
Iterate annually
2001-2Base Year Landscape
2022 Multiple Services
Landscape
Increases in conservation
practices
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Air emissions
Atmospheric concentration& deposition
Watershedprocesses
Lake/Coastalprocesses
Terrestrialwildlife habitat
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis Field-level
processes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Air emissions
Atmospheric concentration& deposition
Watershedprocesses
Lake/Coastalprocesses
Terrestrialwildlife habitat
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis EPIC,
Advanced EPIC
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
CMAQ
CMAQ
Watershedprocesses
Lake/Coastalprocesses
Terrestrialwildlife habitat
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis Field-level
processes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Air emissions
Atmospheric concentration& deposition
SWAT/AnnAGNPSRHYME2S
Lake/Coastalprocesses
Terrestrialwildlife habitat
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis Field-level
processes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Air emissions
Atmospheric concentration& deposition
Watershedprocesses
Lake ErieGulf of Mexico
Terrestrialwildlife habitat
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis Field-level
processes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Air emissions
Atmospheric concentration& deposition
Watershedprocesses
Lake/Coastalprocesses
Bird habitat modelsGUIDOS
Climate mitigation
Clean air
FoodFiber
Energy
Potable water
Flood control
Recreation
Aesthetics
Existence value
Models Services or proxies
BaseyearLandscape
MultipleServices
Landscape
Biofuel TargetsLandscape
ScenarioAnalysis Field-level
processes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
Ecosystem Services Framework (Wainger and Boyd)and ESRP programmatic emphasis
Natural features
Ecological endpoints*
Ecological Production Function
Economic Demand Function
Ecosystem-derived benefits
Complementary goods and services(Technological Production Function)
Social values
*A biophysical feature, quantity or quality that requires little further translationto make clear its relevance to human well-being
Population served,Available substitutes
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
ReVA’s Environmental Decision Toolkit (EDT)
• User-friendly tool for decision-makers
• Structured around resources and ES themes to promote problem solving
• Reduce complex information into useable performance metrics
• Promote understanding of cause/effects resulting from policy choices
http://reva.waratah.com user:[email protected] pass:vulnerability
% Continuous Corn, Base Year
Continuous corn
comparison
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Map 1 higher
Map 2 higher
Same
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Map 1 higher
Map 2 higher
Same
Corn production comparison
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Map 1 higher
Map 2 higher
Same
Nitrogen application comparison
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Map 1 higher
Map 2 higher
Same
Nitrogen loading to streams
comparison
Atrazine application + individual surface water use + population density
Creating Indices within the EDT
Weighted Ecosystem Services Map for FML Region
Clean Air
Climate Mitigation
Food Production
Fiber Production
Energy Production
Potable Water
Land Value
Flood Control
Wildlife-based Recreation
Aesthetics
Cultural Value
Biodiversity Existence Value
room for improvement
relatively good provision of services
Future capability: Build an ecosystem service index (ESI) combining user-weighted values
High ESI
Low ESI
Future capability for evaluation of user-generated scenarios
Services
GIS Server
•Goal programming•Compromise programming•Adaptive weighted sum
Multi-Objective Optimization Programming (MOOP) Module
•SMARTS•SMARTER•Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)
Multi-criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) Module
Intra-/Inter-Network
User Interface/Abilities
•Create new or use/modify existing MCDM models•Apply different MCDM methods (e.g., SMARTS, AHP)•Connect to MOOP models
•Run MOOP model in independent mode•Run MOOP model using weights from MCDM models•Connect MOOP to GIS Server to explore results
•Interactive map display•Scenario comparison•Geospatial analyses•Multiple-user geodatabase
Liem TranMark RidgleyRobert O’Neill
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Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research
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For more information contact:
Betsy [email protected]
Randy [email protected]