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Evaluation of Fire Parameterizations in CLM-CN and
Its Climatic Impact
Ying Sun and Robert E. Dickinson
Department of Geological Sciences Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin
Feb 10th, 2010
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Outline
2/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Outline
3/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Models
Global Change Prediction
4/21
1
2
34
Atmospheric Chemistry Climate
Land Surface Energy Balance
Carbon & Nutrient
12
34
Trace Gases
Aerosols
Albedo
Ecosys Struc
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Outline
5/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 6/21
])(exp[)( 2
emmmP ⋅−= π
)()( sfssA ⋅=
)exp()( 23 dscsbsassf
+′⋅+′⋅+′⋅′
=
Fire Occurrence Probability
Area Burned
Minfuel = 100 gC/m2
Approach
Statistical Scheme(Thonicke et al, 2001)
LPJ-DGVM
Pros: 1 varCons: 4 parameters
A.
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 7/21
Fire Occurrence Probability
Area Burned
Extinguishing Fire
Approach
Process-based Scheme
(Arora & Boer, 2005)
CTEM
Pros: DetailsCons: General ???
Sensitivity
B.
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 8/21
ApproachB.
Correlation Coefficient: Ws ~ A
(Arora & Boer, 2005)
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 9/21
Flammability Estimation
Ignition Sources
Fire Suppression
Ubiquitous Model
Approach
Global Parameterization
(Pechony & Shindell, 2009)
P: GPCPv2T: NCAR/NCEPLAI: MODISPD: GPWv3
C.
Pros: Simple + GlobalCons: P ???
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Outline
10/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 11/21
Assume: Ubiquitous
Experiment Deign
cR, w
)( pem
m* w
CLM-CN
Statistical Scheme: ms = m/me
Global Par:Flammability F
GFEDv2: A
NCEP: T
CLM: RH, ms
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Run Fire Module Time period
1. CNT ON 1948-2004
2. DEF OFF 1948-20043. MOD1 MODIS (scaled) 1948-20044. MOD2 MODIS 1948-2004
12/21
Experiment Design
Run Fire Module Time period
CN-CTL Default (Thonicke et al, 2001) 1997-2004CN-MOD Reparameterization 1997-2004
Expt1: Comparison of 2 Fire modules
Expt2: Sensitivity of Terrestrial and
Climatic Changes to Estimated Fires
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Outline
13/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Annual Fractional Burned Area (%)
14/21
Results
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 15/21
Results
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Factor = MOD2:MOD1 = 1440
16/21
Results
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
1. LAI – Leaf Area Index
2. NPP – Net Primary Production
17/21
Results
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
(Zhao, 2007)
3. ET –Evaptranspiration
18/21
Results
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin)
Motivation
Approaches
Experiment Design
Results
Summary
1
2
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4
5
Outline
19/21
LMWG/BGCWGFire DynamicsY. Sun (DGS, UT at Austin) 20/21
Future Work
Transient Simulation
Deforest Fires
Anthropogenic Influence
Ignition Distribution
Fire Activity ~ ENSO
Acknowledgements
Dr. Muhammad Shaikh
21/21
Thank you for attention!
Questions and Comments?
Dr. Kaicun Wang