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Adaptation to climate change in low to middle income countries
Evidence gap map
Presenter: Luis Sánchez Torrente, AAE
Co-authors: Doswald, N., Reumann, A., Leppert, G., Moull, K., Köngeter, A., Fernández de Velasco, G. & Puri, J.
• Important to evaluate which adaptation measures, actions, and interventions have proved to be effective in increasing resilience and reducing climate risk.
• Evidence is often scattered around different websites, grey literature, and databases and there is a lack of comprehensive and systematic synthesis.
Introduction
Evidence Gap Map (EGM)
Evidence Gap Maps• A systematic presentation of relevant and available empirical
evidence.
• It collates, codes and configures all available evidence relevant to a question.– Clearly defined question (PICO)
– Framework/Matrix of outcomes (y-axis) and interventions/areas/sectors/fields/instruments (x-axis)
– Systematic search protocol and inclusion/exclusion criteria
• Specific map: Evidence on climate change adaptation– High quality evidence related to interventions and outcomes/impacts of
climate change adaptation action.
– IEU/GCF, DEval & Asesoramiento Ambiental Estratégico (AAE)
– Question: What is the state of the evidence base regarding the ability of adaptation interventions to help people in low to middle income countries adapt to the impacts of climate change?
Question of the EGM and PICO
What is the state of the evidence base regarding the abilityof adaptation interventions to help people in low to middle income countries adapt to the impacts of climate change?
POPULATION INTERVENTION COMPARATOR OUTCOME
Human individuals, groups,
communities, institutions,
systems and economic
sectors (water, transport,
infrastructure, agriculture,
forestry, etc...) in low to
middle income countries.
Those that aim to
adjust, reduce, stop or
make use of the
benefits of an impact
from a direct change in
climate or a climatic
hazard.
No adaptation
intervention,
different levels of
intervention or
comparison of
different
interventions.
Human adaptation to
climate change,
variability, extremes or
other natural hazards
that could be linked to
climate.
Study type and Filters
Study type• Studies supported on quantitative or mixed-
methods evidence : systematic review, Correlationanalyses and impact evaluations.
Filters• Countries: low to middle income based on OECD • Languages: english, french, spanish and german• Publication years: 2007-2018• Publication type: only peer-review articles & grey
literature
Framework: Definitions & Concept
Exposure; impact from hazards; adaptive capacity; enabling environment
Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is the process of "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities"
(UNFCCC 2018)
Framework
Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling Environment
Adoption Decreased
Exposure
Decreased
Impacts/Risks
Social
benefits
Economic
benefits
Environmental
systems
Socio-
economic
systems
Institutional
systems
Population
affected by
extreme
weather
events
Proactive and
reactive risk
management; climate
related illness;
deaths; food security
Skills
acquired,
access,
awareness
Livelihood
diversification,
productivitiy
gains, access
Area protected,
ecological
services improved
Social capital
enhanced,
overall
poverty
measurements
Policy changes,
regulations
approved,
institutional
reform
Nature-Based Options
Built Infrastructure / StructuralTechnological Options
Informational/ Research
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ RegulationsFinancial/ Market Mechanisms
Social/ Behavioural
Sect
or/
Inte
rven
tio
ns
Outcomes
Sectors1. Water2. Built environment & Land-use3. Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing4. Society, Economy and Health
Sector Nature based solutionsWater Wetland restoration; water conservation; river restoration;
nature weirs; integrated water management; watershed management
Land-use and Built Environment
Restoration; conservation; sustainable management; mangroves, sand dunes or marshes for coastal protection; integrated coastal zone management; green roofs/walls; green infrastructure; green and blue space in cities
Forestry,
Fishing and
Agriculture
Intercropping, conservation agriculture, changing planting dates; agroforestry; conservation tillage, bunds, traditional seeds/varieties; rain-fed irrigation; crop rotation; sustainable forestry and fishing
Society, Economy and Health
Nature management for vector control; nature-based/ecological livelihood diversification
Nature based solutions
Inclusion/exclusion flow chart
Databases:N= 9956
After Duplicates removed:N= 13,121 (+3931 GeL)
Grey literature:N= 4482
Exclude books, book sections and conference proceedings:
N= 377
Studies retained for screening abstract & title
N= 12,744 (+3931 GeL)
(German literature (GeL):N= 3931)
Inclusion/exclusion flow chart
Studies retained for inclusion:N= 463
Studies retained for full text screeningN= 908
Studies retained for screening abstract & title
N= 12,744 (+3931 GeL)
Excluded after abstract & titleN= 11,836 (+3931 GeL)
Unavailable papersN= 6 (2)
ExcludedN= 437
(reasons include: paper in Chinese; qualitative or descriptive study;
repeated study; not CCA; no intervention or outcome; not OECD
country; purely lab study; simulation or predictive study)
1,042 individual pieces of evidence
Results: Region & countries
East Asia & Pacific22% Central Asia
0%
Latin America & Caribbean
6%
Middle East & North Africa
2%
South Asia22%
Sub-Saharan Africa40%
Global/multiregion8%
World bank region
Country
Number of single-
country research papers
China 59
India 50
Ethiopia 37
Bangladesh 22
Kenya 21
Pakistan 17
Nigeria 16
Vietnam 14
Malawi 12
South Africa 12
GapmapClimate change adaptation Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment
SECTORSINTERVENTION/OUTCOMES Adoption
Decreased
Exposure
Decreased
Impacts/Risks
Social
benefits
Economic
benefits
Environmental
systems
Socioeconomic
systems
Institutional
systems
Example specific outcomes
indicatorsPopulation
affected by
extreme
weather
events
Proactive and
reactive risk
management;
climate related
illness; deaths;
food security
Skills acquired,
access,
awareness
Livelihood
diversification,
productivitiy gains,
access
Area protected,
ecological services
improved
Social capital
enhanced, overall
poverty
measurements
Policy changes,
regulations
approved,
institutional
reform
Water Nature-Based Options 1 3 3Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 1 11 2 9 3 2Technological Options 1 1 1Informational/ Educational 2 3 1 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 1 3 1 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 1 2
Social/Behavioural 1 1 1 1 1Land-use and
Built
Environment
Nature-Based Options 1 14 4 1 3 2 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 3 4 4 5 3 1Technological Options 1 3Informational/ Educational 3 4 1 3Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 2 3 2 1 4 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 2 2 1 2Social/Behavioural 1 1 5 3 2 2 1
Forestry,
Fishing and
Agriculture
Nature-Based Options 3 2 29 2 105 34 8Built Infrastructure / Structural ] 5 1 9 1Technological Options 7 2 19 2 101 16 6Informational/ Educational 77 1 8 9 19 5 5Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 14 3 1 5 3Financial/ Market Mechanisms 44 2 6 4 15 4 6Social/Behavioural 36 5 3 19 4 3
Society,
Economy and
Health
Nature-Based Options 1 3 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 9 3Technological Options 8 1Informational/ Educational 9 3 11 8 2 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 2 1 14 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 5 1 26 1 14 1 5 1
Social/Behavioural 13 2 25 5 17 1 6 3
0
1-5
6-20
21-60
61-80
80+
Observations
Gaps in EGM• Latin American Studies• Sectors: Water or built environment sector• Interventions: depends on sector – fairely equal overall• Outcomes: exposure and enabling environmentConcentration of studies in EGM• Sub-saharan African Studies• Sectors: Agriculture• Interventions: Conservation agriculture, irrigation and
fertiliser, types of crops, extension services• Outcomes: Adoption and economic benefits (yield, income)
Gapmap (Africa)0
1-4
5-9
11-20
+20EVIDENCE GAP MAP Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment
SECTORS
INTERVENTION/OUTCOMES AdoptionDecreased exposure
Decreased Impacts/Risks
Social benefitsEconomic benefits
Environmental systems
Socioeconomic systems
Institutional systems
Example specific outcomes
indicatorsUptake
Population affected by extreme weather
events
Proactive and reactive risk management;
climate related illness; deaths; food
security
Skills acquired, access, awareness
Livelihood diversification,
productivitiy gains, access
Area protected, ecological services
improved
Social capital enhanced, overall
poverty measurements
Policy changes, regulations approved,
institutional reform
Water Nature-Based Options1 1
Built Infrastructure / Structural2 1 2 1 2
Technological Options1
Informational/ Educational2 1
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms
1Social/Behavioural
Land-use and Built Environment
Nature-Based Options1 2 1 1
Built Infrastructure / Structural1
Technological Options
Informational/ Educational1
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 1 1 2 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms
1 1Social/Behavioural
1 1
Forestry, Fishing and Agriculture
Nature-Based Options1 2 17 1 52 17 5
Built Infrastructure / Structural4 3 4
Technological Options4 1 10 45 6 4
Informational/ Educational47 1 4 3 6 1 3
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 8 2 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms
27 2 4 1 6 1 4Social/Behavioural
19 4 7 2 1
Society, Economy and Health
Nature-Based Options1
Built Infrastructure / Structural3
Technological Options2 1
Informational/ Educational3 2 1 1 1
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 4 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms
1 10 5 1Social/Behavioural
6 1 5 3 10 5 2
184Papers
438Evidences
103Evidences on NBO
62Papers on NBO
Results for Africa: number of papersaddressing NBO
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Botswana
Democratic Republic of Congo
Gambia
Madagascar
Mauritius
Senegal
Benin
Burkina Fasso
Cameroon
Mozambique
Uganda
Zambia
Niger
Tanzania
Ghana
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Malawi
Kenya
Ethiopia
Results for Africa: the weight of NBO
WaterLand-use and
Built EnvironmentForestry, Fishingand Agriculture
Society, Economyand Health
Total
Social/Behavioural 2 33 32 67
Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 2 45 17 65
Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ 3 7 12 7 29
Informational/ Educational 3 1 65 8 77
Technological Options 1 70 3 74
Built Infrastructure / Structural 8 1 11 3 23
Nature-Based Options 2 5 95 1 103
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Social/Behavioural
Financial/ MarketMechanisms
Institutional/ Planning/Policy/ Laws/
Informational/ Educational
Technological Options
Built Infrastructure /Structural
Nature-Based Options
NBO: Sectors and outcomes (Africa)
WaterLand-use and Built
EnvironmentForestry, Fishing and
AgricultureSociety, Economy and
Health
Enabling environment 2 22
Adaptive capacity 2 2 53 1
Shocks and stressors 1 19
Uptake 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Enablingenvironment
Adaptivecapacity
Shocks andstressors
Uptake
NBO: Outcome sub-groups (Africa)
Adoption1%
Decreased exposure
3%
Decreased Impacts/Risks
17%
Social benefits3%
Economic benefits53%
Environmental systems
17%
Socioeconomic systems
6%
Common outcome indicators for NBO
Adoption
Decreased
exposure
Decreased
Impacts/Risks Social benefits Economic benefits
Environmental
systems
Socioeconomic
systems• Crop
choice
• Exposure to
climate change
• Wave
attenuation
•Climate
vulnerability
index
•Food Security
(Different
measures and
indexes)
• Hazard related
economic
damage
•Livelihood
resilience to
droghts and
floods
•Nutrition
indexes and
measures
•Perceived
effectiveness
by population
•Access to
water
• Agricultural return of
investment
• Agricultural yield
• Agricultural income
• Crop productivity
• Economic
sustainability
• Farm productivity,
household wealth
• Biodiversity
conservation
(number of native
varieties)
• Control of pests
• Environmental
quality indexes
• Shoreline response,
ecosystem services
• Soil and nutrient
characteristics
• Water productivity
• Poverty indexes
• Resilience indexes
• Social
Capital/Sustainability
•Wealth Index
Effectiveness vs Adoption
❖ An Evidence Gap Map does not tell us whether measures are being effective or not
❖ But only in which areas there is research available
❖ Even if we know that certain measures are effective, how do we know people have access to them?
We are currently investigating the role of credit in helping people adopt adaptation measures (meta-
analysis)
GapmapClimate change adaptation Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment
SECTORSINTERVENTION/OUTCOMES Adoption
Decreased
Exposure
Decreased
Impacts/Risks
Social
benefits
Economic
benefits
Environmental
systems
Socioeconomic
systems
Institutional
systems
Example specific outcomes
indicatorsPopulation
affected by
extreme
weather
events
Proactive and
reactive risk
management;
climate related
illness; deaths;
food security
Skills acquired,
access,
awareness
Livelihood
diversification,
productivitiy gains,
access
Area protected,
ecological services
improved
Social capital
enhanced, overall
poverty
measurements
Policy changes,
regulations
approved,
institutional
reform
Water Nature-Based Options 1 3 3Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 1 11 2 9 3 2Technological Options 1 1 1Informational/ Educational 2 3 1 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 1 3 1 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 1 2
Social/Behavioural 1 1 1 1 1Land-use and
Built
Environment
Nature-Based Options 1 14 4 1 3 2 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 3 4 4 5 3 1Technological Options 1 3Informational/ Educational 3 4 1 3Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 2 3 2 1 4 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 2 2 1 2Social/Behavioural 1 1 5 3 2 2 1
Forestry,
Fishing and
Agriculture
Nature-Based Options 3 2 29 2 105 34 8Built Infrastructure / Structural ] 5 1 9 1Technological Options 7 2 19 2 101 16 6Informational/ Educational 77 1 8 9 19 5 5Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 14 3 1 5 3Financial/ Market Mechanisms 44 2 6 4 15 4 6Social/Behavioural 36 5 3 19 4 3
Society,
Economy and
Health
Nature-Based Options 1 3 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 9 3Technological Options 8 1Informational/ Educational 9 3 11 8 2 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/
Regulations 2 1 14 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 5 1 26 1 14 1 5 1
Social/Behavioural 13 2 25 5 17 1 6 3
0
1-5
6-20
21-60
61-80
80+
36 papers
146 regressions
Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1
++++
+++
++
+
-
--
---
----
Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Asia and LA Africa
++++
+++
++
+
-
--
---
----
Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Adapted crop varieties Crop diversification/switching
++++
+++
++
+
-
--
---
----
Some take-home messages1) There are significant research efforts on the effectiveness of climate
change adaptation measures
2) NBO in the agricultural sector take a large share of the quantitative evidence (also technological options)
3) A significant share of the evidence was collected in Africa
4) Much of the available evidence on NBO inspects on its economic benefits in the agricultural sector (income, profitability, yield, productivity, etc.)
5) NBO in the agricultural sector include agroforestry, conservation agriculture, crop diversification, etc.
6) Meta-analysis is needed to determine whether evidence is conclusive or not
7) There are mixed results when testing on the effect of access to credit in the encouragement of adaptation measures uptake
Thank you!