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IDEAS Shanghai Conference. Evolution of Regional Pattern and Disparities of China’s Human Development (1982-2003). Hu Angang Center for China Studies Tsinghua University Aug.26-27 th , 2006. Main Problems. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ccs.tsinghua.edu.cn | [email protected]
Evolution of Regional Pattern and Disparities of China’s Human
Development (1982-2003)
Hu AngangCenter for China Studies
Tsinghua UniversityAug.26-27th, 2006
IDEAS Shanghai Conference
ccs.tsinghua.edu.cn | [email protected]
Main Problems
• How about China’s regional human development when studied by international comparison?
• What progress have various regions in China made over the past two decades?
• How has the regional pattern of China’s human development evolved?
• How have the regional disparities changed in terms of item-by-item factors and in HDI?
• Do they have similar significant disparities just like the economic development (income) among the eastern, middle and western parts of the country?
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Agenda
• Historical trend of China’s human development
• Standards for classifying regional pattern of human development
• Evolution of the regional pattern of China’s human development
• Regional disparities evolution of China’s human development factors and HDI (health, education & income disparities)
• Conclusions and Discussion
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Historical trend of China’s Human Development
• China is the most populous country in the world and also one of the poorest. Yet, it has, over the past century, especially over the past more than 20 years since reform and opening up, not only created economic miracles but also made big progress in human development.
Table 1 China’s HDI and Its World Ranking (1950-2003) 1950 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
China 0.225 0.525 0.558 0.594 0.627 0.683 0.726 0.755
Ranking - 62 74 79 88 85 96 85 Total number of countries
- 102 113 121 136 145 173 177
Source:Value for 1950 is estimated by Crafts(2002),Other values come from UNDP, Human Development Report
1990-2005.
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Historical trend of China’s Human Development
• Not only has China’s tremendous achievements in
human development been attractive to the world but also
its regional disparities in human development.
• In general, China has achieved astonishing
achievements in human development since reform and
opening up, but there are still significant regional
disparities.
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UNDP’ s Classification
• High level (HDI≥0.80),
• Medium level (0.80>HDI≥0.50)
• Low level (HDI<0.50)
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“Four Worlds” Classification
Table 2 “Four Worlds” of Human Development Classification Implication Standards
1st world High Human Development HDI≥0.80
2nd world Upper Medium Human Development 0.80>HDI≥0.65
3rd world Lower Medium Human Development 0.65>HDI≥0.50
4th world Low Human Development 0.50>HDI
Note: The dividing value between 2nd and 3rd worlds is 0.65 determined by the authors. Other dividing value are
determined by UNDP.
Source:UNDP(2004).
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Evolution of the Regional Pattern
Table 3 Historical Evolution of the “One China, Four Worlds” Pattern in China’s Human Development(1982-2003)
1982 1990 1999 2003
1st
world
Shanghai, Beijing,
Tianjin
Shanghai, Beijing,
Tianjin, Zhejiang,
Liaoning, Guangdong
and Jiangsu
2nd
world
Shanghai
Beijing
Shanghai, Beijing,
Tianjin, Liaoning,
Guangdong, Zhejiang
Jiangsu, Heilongjiang,
Jilin, Shanxi, Hainan
and Shandong
Guangdong, Liaoning,
Zhejiang, Jiangsu,
Fujian, Heilongjiang,
Shandong, Hebei,
Jilin, Hainan, Shanxi,
Xinjiang, Hubei,
Henan, Chongqing,
Hunan, Shaanxi,
Guangxi, Inner
Mongolia, Anhui,
Jiangxi, Sichuan,
Ningxia
Heilongjiang, Fujian,
Jilin, Shandong, Hebei,
Hainan, Xinjiang,
Hubei, Shanxi, Hunan,
Chongqing, Henan,
Inner Mongolia,
Jiangxi, Guangxi,
Shaanxi, Sichuan,
Anhui, Ningxia,
Qinghai, Gansu and
Yunnan
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Evolution of the Regional Pattern
3rd
world
Tianjin, Liaoning,
Heilongjiang,
Guangdong, Jilin,
Shanxi, Hebei, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Guangxi,
Shandong, Hunan,
Hubei and Inner
Mongolia
Hebei, Fujian,
Xinjiang, Guangxi,,
Hubei, Inner
Mongolia, Hunan,
Henan, Shaanxi,
Sichuan, Ningxia,
Jiangxi, Anhui, Gansu,
Yunnan, Qinghai, and
Guizhou
Yunnan, Gansu,
Qinghai, Guizhou,
Tibet
Guizhou, Tibet
4th
world
Henan, Jiangxi, Fujian,
Shaanxi, Xinjiang,
Ningxia, Sichuan,
Anhui, Gansu,
Qinghai, Yunnan,
Guizhou and Tibet
Tibet
Note: The regional pattern of human development is classified according to the HDI value in 1982, 1990, 1999
and 2003. The classification standards are given in Table 2.
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Evolution of the Regional Pattern
Table 4 Historical Evolution of the Proportion of Population of Different HDI Groups in the National Total(1982-2003)
Unit:% HDI group 1982 1990 1999 2003 1982-2003 variables
1st World 0.00 0.00 3.21 22.15 22.15
2nd World 2.10 37.45 87.95 74.63 72.53
3rd World 56.54 62.36 8.84 3.22 -53.32
4th World 41.36 0.19 0.00 0.00 -41.36
National
total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 -
Note:HDI is short for Human Development Index. Population ratio refers to the combined population of the same
HDI grouping the national total.
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Regional Disparities in Human Development
Table 5 Number of Provinces in Different HDI Groups by Region(1982-2003) World 1982 1990 1999 2003
E M W E M W E M W E M W
1st 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 7 0 0
2nd 2 0 0 9 3 0 8 9 6 4 9 9
3rd 7 6 1 2 6 9 0 0 5 0 0 2
4th 1 3 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 10 9 10 11 9 10 11 9 11 11 9 11
Note:Tabulated according to Table 3. In 1982,Chongqing and Sichuan were in the same province and Hainan and
Guangdong were of the same province.
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Source of regional disparities
• Health: life expectancy at birth
• Education: adult literacy ratio and gross enrollment
• Income: per capita GDP
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Health: life expectancy at birth
Table 6 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Life Expectancy at Birth 1982 2003
Trichotomy Tetrachotomy
General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal
ity B-R
1982 0.0011 3.02 10.98 24.87 61.14 1.96 10.98 24.87 0.39 61.80
1990 0.0007 5.56 9.60 15.29 69.55 3.33 9.60 15.29 0.41 71.37
1995 0.0007 5.44 9.63 15.42 69.51 3.30 9.63 15.42 0.40 71.26
1999 0.0007 6.24 15.07 12.84 65.84 3.81 15.07 12.84 0.42 67.86
2003 0.0005 10.56 6.62 33.35 49.48 5.09 6.62 33.35 0.85 54.10
Note:Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”
and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions.
Source: the same as Table 3.
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Education: adult literacy ratio
Table 7 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Adult Literacy Ratio (1982-2003) Trichotomy Tetrachotomy
General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal
ities B-R
1982 0.0095 23.19 32.27 34.74 9.80 15.76 32.27 34.74 0.02 17.21
1990 0.0044 11.91 25.69 48.34 14.06 9.03 25.69 48.34 0.05 16.88
1995 0.0027 11.27 7.95 58.28 22.49 8.77 7.95 58.28 0.02 24.97
1999 0.0024 23.87 14.32 47.01 14.80 20.45 14.32 47.01 0.07 18.15
2003 0.0016 19.91 11.43 53.28 15.38 16.79 11.43 53.28 0.06 18.44
Note:Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”
and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions
Source: same as Table 3.
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Education: gross enrollment
Table 7 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Adult Literacy Ratio (1982-2003) Trichotomy Tetrachotomy
General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal
ities B-R
1982 0.0095 23.19 32.27 34.74 9.80 15.76 32.27 34.74 0.02 17.21
1990 0.0044 11.91 25.69 48.34 14.06 9.03 25.69 48.34 0.05 16.88
1995 0.0027 11.27 7.95 58.28 22.49 8.77 7.95 58.28 0.02 24.97
1999 0.0024 23.87 14.32 47.01 14.80 20.45 14.32 47.01 0.07 18.15
2003 0.0016 19.91 11.43 53.28 15.38 16.79 11.43 53.28 0.06 18.44
Note:Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”
and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions
Source: same as Table 3.
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Income: per capita GDP
Table 9 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in GDP Per Capita (1982-2003) Trichotomy Tetrachotomy
General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal
ities B-R
1982 0.0869 43.78 11.11 3.93 41.18 6.97 11.11 3.93 1.44 76.56
1990 0.0667 25.29 10.92 5.66 58.13 8.71 10.92 5.66 1.64 73.06
1995 0.1022 15.31 4.09 5.45 75.15 6.15 4.09 5.45 0.66 83.65
1999 0.1159 18.31 3.98 4.81 72.91 5.37 3.98 4.81 1.04 84.81
2003 0.1295 17.71 3.81 5.02 73.47 5.39 3.81 5.02 0.69 85.10
Note:Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”
and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions
Source: same as Table 3.
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Human development index (HDI)
Table 10 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in HDI (1982-2003) Trichotomy Tetrachotomy
General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal
ities B-Rl
1982 0.0050 23.38 11.80 19.02 45.80 9.86 11.80 19.02 0.35 58.97
1990 0.0025 15.49 9.38 15.18 59.95 6.83 9.38 15.18 0.35 68.25
1995 0.0027 10.01 3.59 16.41 69.99 3.98 3.59 16.41 0.32 75.69
1999 0.0023 15.15 5.01 13.91 65.93 5.40 5.01 13.91 0.47 75.21
2003 0.0021 14.35 4.24 20.90 60.52 4.52 4.24 20.90 0.46 69.88
Note:Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”
and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions
Source: same as Table 3.
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Source of regional disparities
Table 11 Main Conclusions from the Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Human Development
HDI
Regional disparity
trend 1982-2003
Main disparity
Intra-regional main
disparity
Inter-regional disparity trend
1982-2003
Difference between
municipalities and eastern
coastal cities
Health Life expectancy
Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before narrowing
Insignificant
Adult literacy ratio
Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before narrowing
Insignificant
Gross enrollment ratio
Narrowing B-R - Enlarging before Narrowing
Significant Education
Education composite
Narrowing W-R Western part Fluctuating Significant
Economy Per capita GDP
Narrowing before enlarging
B-R Eastern part Enlarging Significant
General HDI Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before narrowing
Significant
Note:Sorting out by the Author based on analysis. “B-R”: disparities between regions; “W-R”: disparities within
regions.
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Conclusions and Discussion
• The rising human development level is attributable to the steady rise in human development levels in various regions. China’s regional development has been quite uneven since reform and opening up.
• In 1982-2003, the regional disparities in China’s economic development experienced a narrowing-enlarging process while the regional disparities in health and education have been narrowing to varying degrees and so have the disparities in HDI.
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Conclusions and Discussion
• Target of China’s well-off society: when China’s GDP per capita reaches the average level of the world, HDI should reach a high human development level and about 70% of the people entering the “1st world”, 20% in the “2nd world” and no people would be in the “3rd world”.
• China’s development model: the income per capita is relatively lower than that of developed countries, but the living of the people have reached a fairly high human development level.