Evolution of Risk Mechanisms

Stimulus-Response action

Emotional System

Rational System

Stimulus-Response action

• Fear - Mechanism for avoiding predators.

• Anger - Mechanism for combating rivals.

• Disgust - Mechanism for avoiding disease.

Emotional System

Mechanisms for avoiding danger in the African Savannah.

Rational System

Dual Systems /

Process theories

• Emotional system– Heart / gut feelings– Evolutionarily old

• Rational System – Head / logical thought– Evolutionarily young, – probably arising with language

• Human bodies, adapted to the African Savannah, now live in very different places.

• In the modern world technological advances have changed the landscape of risk.

• We rely on our rational system to protect us from these modern risks, which are evolving faster than our emotional system has evolved to deal with them.

Risks have changed

Modern Risk

Less Risky Less Risky More Risky More Risky

Voluntary Voluntary Involuntary Involuntary

Familiar Familiar Unfamiliar Unfamiliar

Low DreadLow Dread High DreadHigh Dread

Natural Natural Man Made Man Made

Numerous Small Scale Numerous Small Scale Single Large ScaleSingle Large Scale

ReversibleReversible Irreversible Irreversible

ChronicChronic Catastrophic Catastrophic

FairFair UnfairUnfair

Less VulnerableLess Vulnerable VulnerableVulnerable

Voluntary - Involuntary

Natural - Man Made

Single Large Scale – Numerous Small Scale

Reversible – Irreversible

Chronic – Catastrophic

Processing information about risk

• Systematic Processing– Detailed understanding

– Slower

– Relatively stable and persistent attitude towards topic

• Heuristic Processing– Superficial understanding

– Faster

– Attitude towards topic may change

– Efficiency at the cost of sometimes drawing the wrong conclusions

Heuristics and Cognitive Biases

• Availability heuristic• Representativeness heuristic• Affect heuristic• Loss Aversion• Confirmation bias• Negative bias

• Journalists “Seek Truth and Report It” but they also have to sell newspapers to keep their jobs.

• They implicitly exploit our evolutionary worries and interests e.g. more bad news than good.

• They attempt to present a balanced argument which can distort non 50/50 arguments

• What is the motivation of the person selling the idea?

The role of the media, advertisers and other companies.

Advertisers do the sameSelling things by association and emotion, not logic and rationality.

Food ManufacturersFood labels that provoke an emotional response are more likely to stop us buying a product than labels that provoke a rational response.

Summary of Main Points

• We evolved to deal with risks that no longer present us much danger.

• We have 2 main mechanisms for dealing with modern risk (the Dual Process theories): Emotional and Rational systems.

• These mechanisms shape our interests and where we pay attention.

• Media and advertisers sell us news and products that feed these interests.