Examining Genocide and Early Warning Systems

Examining Genocide

Treblinka

Sobibor

Majdanek

Belzec

StutthofChelmno

PlaszowAuschwitz

Gross-Rosen

The Holocaust - Poland

Demjanjuk Trial

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyByanOBRCs&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyByanOBRCs&NR=1

Holocaust 101 Term “Genocide” is from the Greek, first coined in 1944 by Raphael Lemkin, Polish-born advisor to the U.S. War Dept (pbs.org/frontline)

genos = race or tribe, cide = kill

The word Holocaust, also from the Greek: “holocauston”, means “sacrifice by fire”

In usage since the 5th century B.C.E., used during the war (lower case H)

In Hebrew: Sho’ah, ׁשֹוָאה translates as “devastation”, used throughout Jewish history to refer to attacks against Jews Not until the late 1970s did Holocaust become a mainstay in the English language referring to the near annihilation of European Jewry (USHMM.org)

Primary target: European Jewry, of the 9 million Jews in Europe in 1939, 6 million were murdered by 1945

Poland: home to 3.5 million Jews, most in Europe, 2nd highest in world, 10% survived

Other victims: Roma (i.e., Gypsies), Homosexuals, Jehovah Witnesses, the disabled, political opponents

Holocaust 101

Warsaw Ghetto Defined attribute of genocide:

inflicting conditions of life… bring about physical destruction

Largest ghetto: peak population 445,000

Death via starvation and disease, mortality rate: 6k per month (USHMM.org)

April 13, 1943: Ghetto Uprising, 28 days of defiance

After The Fact - A Changed World Established a new term in international law: Genocide, 1944

Established the term Holocaust (capital H) to denote the systematic destruction of European Jewry

Genocide Convention: 1948

Universal Declaration of Human Rights: 1948

United Nations: 1945

European Union: 1949 (set up with the aim of ending frequent and bloody wars between neighbors, which culminated in the Second World War) (europa.eu)

The Cold War: 1945

State of Israel: 1948

Established goal for an International Criminal CourtSerbian Trial

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/11/03/karadzic.trial/index.html

International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur to the U.N. Secretary-General

Key Finding:

“The Commission concludes that the

Government of Sudan has not pursued a policy

of genocide”

Key Factors Used to Reach Decision:

Has there been killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm?

Have the events been inflicting conditions of life likely to bring about physical destruction?

Is there the existence of a protected group being targeted (subjective only, not objective)?

Can genocidal intent be determined from the facts on the ground?XXThe Intent?

“those who planned and organized attacks pursued the intent to drive the victims from their homes, primarily for purposes of counter-insurgency warfare”


Protected Groups Distinction: Objective vs. Subjective

Objective refers to ethnic groups distinct from those who are committing the crimes

Non-Jews (Aryans) vs Jews

Bosnian Serbs vs Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks)

Hutu vs Tutsi

“The various tribes do not appear to make up ethnic groups distinct from the ethnic group to which person or militias that attack them belong”

Speak same language, same religion, instances of intermarriage, consistent physical appearance

Subjective refers to perception, “they perceive each other and themselves as constituting distinct groups”


Sudanese Commission of Inquiry Yes, serious violations of human rights were committed, but:

Did not constitute genocide

Number of killings exaggerated

Loss of life suffered by all parties, (police/armed forces) not just a distinct group

Rape committed but not widespread enough to constitute a crime against humanity

Commission Response to the Sudanese Commission: Perfect example as to why a national body can not provide an impartial account of the situation occurring within their borders


Sudanese Ill-Equipped to Handle Situation: Distinction between police and armed forces is blurred

Police tend to be outnumbered and outgunned by the militia, hesitant to confront the Janjaweed

Victims hesitant to file complaints with police, fear reprisal and assume police will not pursue complaint

Commission Concludes: “it is unlikely that the legal and judicial systems in Sudan in their present form are capable of addressing the serious challenges resulting from the crisis in Darfur”

Judicial system said to be manipulated and politicized

Dissenting judges suffer harassment, dismissals from Government


Journal of EthnoDevelopment: Early Warning of Communal Conflicts And Humanitarian Crises

Statistical Models for Early Warning (Pgs 4-6)

Correlation

Uses multiple regression analysis, tests the strength of a causal relationship

Pro: Identifies importance of a causal relationship

Con: Postdictive, not predictive

Sequential

Causes or stages of gen/politicide (Variables)

Pro: Assess how events, linear or not, could increase likelihood of violence (e.g. Kristallnacht, Wannsee Conference)

Con: Need large number of case studies from previous conflict to prove out


Statistical Models for Early Warning (Pgs 4-6)

Response

Measures impact of strategic interventions designed to influence outcome of the conflict

Con: Reactive, not proactive intervention; Validity unknown

Conjunctural

Inputs scenario of events/combinations of conditions

Renders any number of outcomes positive and negative

Not fully baked

Sequential Model for Early Warning (Author: Barbara Harff, Pgs 25-28) Variables (Measuring the potential for regime violence against a protected group):

International Background Conditions Shifting global alliances, political upheaval, degree of responses threat

Internal Background Conditions Strength of communal group bond or lack thereof, Factions of communal group, coercion by those in power, presence of democracy

Intervening Conditions Ideology of exclusion, Fragmented governance, leadership that generates a mass following, economic hardship

Accelerators Events that lead to escalation of violence



Argument Against Statistical Models for Early Warning (Author: Hayward Alker, Pgs 117-122) Argues for verbal/narrative scenarios, Text Models

Credibility and usage of statistically generated models is weak with policymakers

Human nature does not operate in logical, rational sequences

Advocacy for Text Models: narrative and contextual

Driven with qualitative datasets not quantitative

Friendlier to policymakers and others to consume

UN Deficiencies and Early Warning (Author: Kumar Rupesinghe, Pgs 88-96) UN internal capacity to render early warning faces obstacles:

Failure to develop in-house capability - results in reliance on intelligence sources from member states, many unwilling/unable to provide

Concepts of sovereignty and non-interference, lack of political will to intervene

Restricted mandate results in a REACTIVE position, not proactive

Memorandum on An Agenda for Peace (Boutros-Ghali): 1991 30 armed conflict locations, 18 of those saw no UN involvement


UN Deficiencies and Early Warning (Author: Kumar Rupesinghe, Pgs 88-96) Argues for “citizen peacemaking”, create Early Warning Information Service, strengths = their lack of power, their neutrality, perceived and otherwise

Alliance of NGOs in cooperation to prevent war

NGO global coalitions agree on forms of action

Development of an effective early warning system: integrate the plethora of knowledge housed by NGOs, real-time information and developing trends

Model: HURIDOCS (Human Rights Information and Documentation Xchange), 200 organizations use it, coop network facilitating data collection and exchange of information


International Crises and the Ethnopolitical Dimension (Authors: Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Michael Brecher, Pgs 56-59) Look at characteristics of ethnopolitical crisis and their causations, correlations Secessionist and Irredentist disputes play a role From 1918-1988, excluding WWII, 122 of 359 crises, 34%, had an ethnopolitical component (source: Intl Crisis Behavior Project) Breakdown by polarity: multipolarity (46%), bipolarity(29%) polycentrism (32%) Breakdown by region: Africa (44% vs 30% of rest of intl system), Americas, Asia, Europe Breakdown by threat: Territorial and Existential account for 62% of all ethnopolitical conflicts Major powers less inclined to intervene in ethnic crisis vs non-ethnic: 68% vs 81%


Questions

Early Warning: Picture yourself as a policymaker, would you rather see a statistical model, a qualitative text model, or a hybrid to guide your decisions?

The U.N. was created out of WWII, but arguments are put forth that it is not capable of preventing or intervening on crimes similar to those committed by Nazi Germany. What would you do to make the U.N. more effective in this area?

Do you agree with the findings on Darfur that it is not genocide? Why?

Genocide has occurred post-WWII. Do you agree that the Genocide Convention is a “dead letter”?

Documents

Examining Genocide and Early Warning Systems