Example of Modern Civil

Space Weather Service

Bob Rutledge

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Boulder, Colorado

Multi-functional Nature of the Aerospace Domain: a European Approach

Italian Air Force Institute of Military Sciences (ISMA)

Florence, Italy 23-24 October 2014

Outline

National Drivers/Federal Response

Service Provision Today

Modeling Efforts

Satellite Observations

International Collaborations/

Opportunities

THE DRIVERS Owners and operators of the Bulk-Power System

to implement operational procedures to mitigate

Geomagnetic Storm effects.

United Nations ICAO working

toward policies and protocols for

space weather.

Space weather now included in

the Strategic National Risk

Assessment

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Standards for Geomagnetic storms

White House Geomagnetically Induced

Currents Interagency Working Group

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Federal Interagency Operations Plan

North American Electric Reliability Corp.

Joint Industry-Government Task Force

RESPONDING TO THE THREAT

National and International Exercises

• Secure Grid

• FEMA/MSB/NOAA

• National Exercise Program

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• Arrival: 8 minutes, photons

• Duration: Minutes to 3 hours

• Daylight-side impacts

• Probabilistic 1, 2, 3-day forecasts

• Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)

• Summary messages post-event

Services Today - Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts – R Scale)

Services Today - Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

• Arrival: 10’s of minutes to

several hours

• Duration: hours to days

• Short-term warnings pre-onset

• Alert for threshold crossing

• Summary post-event

Geomagnetic Storm Watch • Issued upon detection of Earth-directed

CME and WSA-Enlil model run • 1-3 day forecast

L1

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Geomagnetic Storm Warning • Issued upon detection at the ACE spacecraft

at the L1 Lagrange point • 15-50 minutes before impacting Earth

Geomagnetic Storm Alert • Issued when geomagnetic storm is detected

on USGS magnetometers • Current condition

Users need regional/local specification of the environment

Services Today - Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

Services Today - Graphical Nowcasts/ Short-term Forecasts

Solar/Solar Wind

Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth Continuum Partnerships with the Space Weather Research Community

Magnetosphere/

Ionosphere

Ionosphere/

Atmosphere

Earth’s surface

Currently in Operations

2015

2017

2015

• In partnership with Community Coordinated Modeling Center,

Geospace models identified for transition to operations:

- U. of Michigan Space Weather Modeling

Framework - Full physics-based

magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model

• Provide regional specification and

short-term forecasts of geomagnetic

conditions

Transition complete by 2015

Magnetosphere/Ionosphere

Ionosphere/Atmosphere

Couples ionosphere/plasmasphere prediction capabilities, with current weather prediction model

Predicts lower atmosphere impact on ionospheric (and vice versa)

Expected benefits:

Improved forecasts/lead times for ionospheric conditions that can disrupt GPS & communications

Improved terrestrial forecasts from upper atmosphere coupling

Transition complete by 2017

Implementing the Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere

(IDEA)/Whole Model (WAM) with University of Colorado

Multiyear project to raise the top of operational GFS to 600km

In partnership with USGS, introducing web-based, real-time

induced electric field product • Challenges remain in magnetic field interpolation

• Challenges remain in ground conductivity characterization

Simulated October 2003 Electric field intensity

(orange > 0.5 V/km, yellow > 0.2 V/km, green < 0.2 V/km)

Electric Field Nowcast Model

Transition complete by 2015

DSCOVR

GOES-R

Satellite Observations

DSCOVR Operationally dedicated – Ensure continuity of solar wind measurements: Launch January, 2015

GOES-R NOAA’s next-generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Continuity of existing measurements, updated imager, inclusion of heavy ion measurements: Launch 2016

Operational Coronagraph • High priority to replace ESA-NASA SOHO/LASCO

Coronagraph • RFI issued in Feb 2014 for DSCOVR follow-on… Combines coronograph and in situ mag/plasma

L5 Mission is needed…. How can it be done?

Coronagraph

Global Threat – Global Response

• Continued efforts of the International Space Environment Service (ISES)

• International Bilateral/Multilateral Efforts: • UK Met Office began 24/7 services this month • Continued development of services/collaboration with the

Korean Radio Research Agency/Korean Space Weather Center • Continuation of other long-standing bilateral activities… • On the research side, collaboration with the European

Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), others

• NOAA working with the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on the development of space weather standards for global aviation

International Space Weather Collaborations

Opportunities for Synergy

• Collaboration on securing/maintaining key observations • Partnerships in satellite mission/instrument development • Partnerships in satellite tracking • Partnerships in ground-based monitoring (magnetometers, ground-based GNSS, etc.)

• Sharing/Utilization of existing data (SWPC E-SWDS as an example)

• Continued collaboration on research and model development

• Continued collaboration on global awareness and response

International Space Weather Collaborations

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado

www.spaceweather.gov

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Radio Blackouts

Radiation Storms

Geomagnetic Storms

NOAA Space Weather Scales

Event-Driven Product Definitions

– Watches; The conditions are favorable for occurrence

– Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, expected in the near future with high probability

– Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds

Phenomena Reference/Impacts

Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range

from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48

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