Executive Summary - NTDC

i

Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Tribal Area Electric Supply Company (TESCO) is a wholly-owned Government Distribution

Company with headquarters located in the city of Peshawar. Tribal Area Electric Supply

Company Limited (TESCO) is one of the ten electricity distribution companies (DISCOs).

TESCO was spun out of PESCO in June 2002 to supply electricity to tribal areas of Pakistan.

Peak demand of TESCO in the year 2013-14 was 292 MW, energy sale was 1366 GWh and

energy purchased was 1696 GWh. The shares of domestic sector and industrial sector were

91.89% and 3.24% respectively with respect to total energy sale, which is not a healthy sign. The

total numbers of consumers in this year were 0.441 million out of which domestic consumers

were 0.401 million, commercial were 0.028 million and agricultural consumers were 0.009

million. In the year 2013-14, TESCO total sale in terms of megawatt was 235 MW, for the

domestic sector it was 254 MW while for the medium & large industries and small industries it

was 0 MW and 11 MW respectively.

This forecast has been computed on the basis of Power Market Survey (PMS) methodology by

the TESCO (PMS) team under the supervision of planning power, NTDCL. The year 2013-14

has been taken as base year and the forecast horizon is ten years up to 2023-24. The base year

sale data (feeder wise consumer category-wise energy sale) and the expected spot loads data at

the locations of different sub-stations have been collected by TESCO power market survey team.

Data for the base year has also been adjusted for the estimates of un-served energy (load

shedding) in order to have realistic figures.

Forecast results show that energy sale will be 1626 GWh and 2075 GWh, peak demand will be

752 MW and 918 MW, and energy purchased will be 2546 GWh and 3126 GWh by the years

2017-18 and 2023-24 respectively. For the period 2013-14 to 2023-24, annual average

compound growth rate of energy sale, peak demand and energy purchased will be 4.27%, 3.46%

and 3.57% respectively.

To further refine the forecast and making it helpful for planners following additions have been

made in this issue;

Civil Administrative Division-wise energy and demand forecast

Civil Administrative District-wise energy and demand forecast

Month-wise demand projection

Overloaded 132 kV substations

List of existing substations with their MVA capacities

A realistic forecast, saves over investment as well as under investment, meaning thereby timely

recovery of revenue and no constraints in the supply of power (load shedding) respectively. This

kind of forecast can only be prepared by applying proper methodology with authentic data. The

results of previous PMS forecasts were very close to the actual which proves the authenticity of

methodology and data. This report highlights the salient features of load forecast of the company.

Planning Power, NTDCL firmly believes that the reader’s comments/suggestions on this report

will help in improving energy and demand forecast in future.

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1

2 Historical Supply and Demand Analysis ............................................................................ 3

2.1 Category-wise Sale ........................................................................................................... 3

2.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses ............................................................................. 4

2.3 Recorded and Computed Peak Demand ........................................................................... 5

2.4 Number of Consumers ..................................................................................................... 5

3 Power Market Survey Methodology ................................................................................... 6

3.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 6

3.2 Survey Base Data ............................................................................................................. 6

3.3 Input Parameters ............................................................................................................... 7

3.4 Growth Rates .................................................................................................................... 8

3.5 Losses ............................................................................................................................... 8

3.6 Load Factors ..................................................................................................................... 8

3.7 Coincidence Factors ......................................................................................................... 9

3.8 Forecast Calculations ..................................................................................................... 10

3.9 Energy Calculations ....................................................................................................... 10

3.10 Peak Demand Calculations............................................................................................. 10

3.11 Accumulations ................................................................................................................ 10

4 PMS Forecast Results ......................................................................................................... 11

4.1 Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding)............................................................. 11

4.2 Computed Forecast (Including Load Shedding) ............................................................ 11

4.3 Category-wise Forecasted Energy Sale (GWh) ............................................................. 12

4.4 Category-wise Power Demand (MW) ............................................................................ 12

4.5 Peak Demand of Substations .......................................................................................... 13

4.6 Per Capita Consumption................................................................................................. 13

4.7 Category-wise Substation-wise Energy and Demand Projections ................................. 13

4.8 Civil Administrative Area Forecast................................................................................ 14

4.9 Monthly Demand (MW) Projections.............................................................................. 14

4.10 List of Overloaded Substations ...................................................................................... 14

4.11 List of Grids with their Codes and MVA Capacities ..................................................... 14

Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................... 54

iii

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1- 1: Computed Demand Forecast ..................................................................................................... 1

Figure 1- 2:Historical Category-wise Sale .................................................................................................... 3

Figure 1- 3: Historical Transmission and Distribution Losses ...................................................................... 4

Figure 1- 4: Historical Recorded and Computed Peak Demand ................................................................... 5

Figure 1- 5: Number of Consumers .............................................................................................................. 5

Figure 1- 6: Computed Peak Demand (MW) .............................................................................................. 11

Figure 1- 7: Energy Purchased VS Energy Sale ......................................................................................... 11

Figure 1- 8 Forecasted Category-wise Sale ................................................................................................ 12

Figure 1- 9: Per Capita Consumption (KWh) ............................................................................................. 13

Figure 1- 10: Distribution Network Map .................................................................................................... 53

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List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1- 1: PMS Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding) ................................................................. 15

Table 1- 2: PMS Base Forecast .................................................................................................................... 16

Table 1- 3: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Base Forecast) .............................................................................. 17

Table 1- 4: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Base Forecast) .............................................................................. 18

Table 1- 5: Category-wise Demand – MW (Excluding Load Shedding) ....................................................... 19

Table 1- 6: Category-wise Demand – MW (Including Load Shedding)........................................................ 20

Table 1- 7: District-wise Sale (GWh) ,Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Ghallanai ..................................................................................................................................................... 21

Table 1- 8: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Khyber .................................................................................................................................................................... 22

Table 1- 9: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Bajour .................................................................................................................................................................... 23

Table 1- 10: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation (GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Bara24

Table 1- 11: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Lakarai .................................................................................................................................................................... 25

Table 1- 12: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tangi .................................................................................................................................................................... 26

Table 1- 13: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Darra .................................................................................................................................................................... 27

Table 1- 14: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Sadda .................................................................................................................................................................... 28

Table 1- 15: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tall . 29

Table 1- 16: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Mattani........................................................................................................................................................ 30

Table 1- 17: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Gumbat ....................................................................................................................................................... 31

Table 1- 18: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Miran Shah............................................................................................................................................................. 32

Table 1- 19: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Mir Ali .................................................................................................................................................................... 33

Table 1- 20: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Wana .................................................................................................................................................................... 34

Table 1- 21: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Kalaya .................................................................................................................................................................... 35

v

List of Tables Table 1- 22: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tank .................................................................................................................................................................... 36

Table 1- 23: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Jandola ........................................................................................................................................................ 37

Table 1- 24: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Prova .................................................................................................................................................................... 38

Table 1- 25: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Ramzak ........................................................................................................................................................ 39

Table 1- 26: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Domail .................................................................................................................................................................... 40

Table 1- 27: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Peshawar ..................................................................................................................................................... 41

Table 1- 28: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Hangu .................................................................................................................................................................... 42

Table 1- 29: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Bannu .................................................................................................................................................................... 43

Table 1- 30: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation (GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Tank .................................................................................................................................................................... 44

Table 1- 31: Monthly Peak Demand Forecast ............................................................................................. 45

Table 1- 32: List of Overloaded Substations during Period 2013-14 to 2023-24 Overloading Criterion=85% ............................................................................................................................................. 46

Table 1- 33: List of Overloaded Substations during Period 2013-14 to 2023-24 Overloading Criterion=100% ........................................................................................................................................... 47

Table 1- 34: List of Grids with their Codes & MVA Capacities .................................................................... 48

Table 1- 35: Maximum Demand (MW) of Substation ................................................................................. 49

Table 1- 36: Category-wise Energy(GWh) and Maximum Demand (MW) of Substations .......................... 51

TESCO

1

TESCO

1 Introduction

The present report of Power Market Survey forecast is the 24th

report in the series of reports

compiled by the planning power department. This report contains year wise detailed forecast

of energy and demand for the whole company, and each sub-station within the company. In

addition to that civil administrative areas’ forecast like division and district within the

company are also computed and depicted in different tables. The forecasted peak demand of

TESCO has graphically presented in Figure 1-1.

Load forecasting is an important element of the power planning process involving prediction

of future level of demand. The forecast serves as the basis for supply-side and demand-side

planning. Load forecasts are typically prepared by utilities for different time frames and

levels of detail and used in different planning applications and operations.

Long term planning requires a system level forecast of total generation requirement and peak

demand. On the other hand transmission and distribution planning require more load level

and geographic detail to assess location, timing and loading of individual lines, substation

and transformation facilities.

Figure 1- 1: Computed Demand Forecast

Forecasting models fall into three general categories:

Trend models.

Econometric based models.

End-use models.

Trend forecasts graphically or mathematically extrapolate past electricity demand trends into

the future. They may be inadequate for shorter time periods where demographic changes in

the underlying casual factors of load growth are not anticipated.

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

Me

ga W

atts

(M

W)

2

TESCO Econometric models represent a more complex ‘top-down’ approach to forecasting and rely

on the observed or the implied relationship between past energy consumption and other

variables defining past economic output, demographics and price or income variables. Such

models employ a combination of econometric, regression and time series forecast techniques.

End-use models relate energy use to the physical appliance stock levels, to the use patterns or

to the industrial process. These end use models represent a ‘bottom-up’ forecasting approach

and normally incorporate disaggregate end use forecast and consumer survey techniques.

This report has been prepared on the basis of Power Market Survey Methodology and the

model used is called Power Market Survey (PMS) model. This model is a form of end use

model which provides energy and power projection for all distribution companies and all grid

stations within the company.

The PMS model relies on an extensive data base of historical sales. The data base includes

consumption by consumer type (i.e. domestic, industrial and commercial etc.) on a grid

station and grid station feeder basis. Actual consumption data are adjusted for unserved

demands attributed to load shedding.

Energy forecasts are computed for each consumption category at the sub area level on the

basis of a trend analysis of recent per consumer sales plus new consumer connection

applications. Industrial forecasts are based on interviews with existing consumer trend

projections and a review of the applications for new and increased service. These analyses

are repeated for each sub area for each of the years to be forecast. The annual peak demand is

determined from the resulting energy forecasts by using the load factors and diversity factors

developed for each consumer category. Forecasts are then aggregated to a system level.

Because the PMS forecast is based on a mix of end-use, trend projection and known

consumer expansion plans, it cannot be used reliably to predict demand over the longer term.

This model had not been created to predict impacts of changes in growth rates of different

economic sectors or consumers categories over time, of changes in both the absolute and

relative prices of electricity, or of changes in the relationships between income growth and

electricity growth over time as a result of market saturation and technological change (in

order to capture these changes NTDC is using another model called regression model). This

model is used for long term forecasting as the changes in growth rate are occurred due to

change in technology, life style over a longer time period.

The Power Market Survey forecast model most closely approaches the requirements of

power system planning. It provides the level of detail required for siting studies and

transmission and substation planning, as well as the sectoral detail necessary to assess

different sector growth rates and their impacts on load shapes, both for the system, DISCOs

and grid stations. In addition, because it also makes specific provision for load shedding i.e.

suppressed demand, it provides a reasonable approximation of unconstrained load growth.

3

TESCO

2 Historical Supply and Demand Analysis

2.1 Category-wise Sale

The customers within the company can be segregated in different categories. The segregation is

usually based upon the type of applications for which electricity is being used. Major categories

include Domestic, Commercial, Small industries, Medium & Large industries and Agriculture.

The category-wise percentage sale for the years 2003-04, 2006-07, and 2013-14 are given in

Figure 1-2.

Figure 1- 2:Historical Category-wise Sale

93%

1% 0% 1% 1% 4%

2003-04 Domestic

Commercial

Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well

93%

1%

0% 1% 1% 4% 2006-07

Domestic

Commercial

Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well

90%

1% 0% 5% 0% 4%

2013-14

Domestic

Commercial

Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well

4

TESCO

314(GWh),19%

38.4(GWh),2%

1295(GWh),79%

2012-13

Distribution Losses

Transmission Losses

Sale

475(GWh),

22.92%

131(GWh),

6.32% 1466(GWh),

70.75%

2011-12

Transmission Losses

Distribution Losses

Sale

2.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses

In our system losses are divided into two types;

Transmission Losses

Distribution Losses

The losses on 132 kV and 11kV transmission lines are considered as Transmission Losses

where as the losses on 11 kV and 440 Volts lines supplying the consumers are called

Distribution Losses. In a system, generally the high losses are due to lack of proper

maintenance and elements of theft. Reduction in losses can be achieved, by installing proper

size of conductor in 11kV feeders, low tension lines and also by installing capacitor banks,

to reduce reactive power and thereby improving power factor. Energy sent out is shown in

the form of its breakup as sale, distribution losses and transmission losses with their

percentages in the figure 1-3 for the year 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14.

Figure 1- 3: Historical Transmission and Distribution Losses

293(GWh) 17%

37(GWh) 2%

1366(GWh) 81%

2013-14

Distribution Losses

Transmission Losses

Sale

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TESCO

2.3 Recorded and Computed Peak Demand

Recorded demand is the highest electricity demand or maximum power supplied to the

consumers during the base year. Computed peak demand is calculated by adding the

element of unserved power into the figure of the recorded peak demand. Figure 1-4

shows the recorded and computed peak demand (MW) from the year 2009-10 to 2013-

14.

Figure 1- 4: Historical Recorded and Computed Peak Demand

2.4 Number of Consumers

Historical record of number of consumers within TESCO jurisdiction is given in Figure

1-5. These consumers are from all categories; i.e. Domestic, Commercial, Small

industries, Medium & Large industries, Public Lighting, Bulk and Agriculture.

Figure 1- 5: Number of Consumers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

524 568

417

298 298

688

532

622

785

653

PEA

K D

EMA

ND

(M

W)

Recorded PeakDemand

Computed PeakDemand

380000

400000

420000

440000

460000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

410957

440018 440100 441368 441486

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TESCO

3 Power Market Survey Methodology

3.1 Overview

The Power Market Survey Model forms the basis of the Medium Term Forecast. It

produces an energy and peak demand forecast over a ten year period by consumption

category and by grid station for the entire service area. The Model has three inter-related

components, the main database, the basic input parameters and the calculations

themselves.

The energy consumption data base obtained through the power market survey is

immense. It contains base year consumption data for existing consumers and ten year's

forecast data for new consumers for each consumer category within the company. In

addition, there is separate information for peak demand in medium & large industries

and traction categories. Because of its volume this data is not listed as part of this report.

In addition to the data base, a number of basic input parameters form an integral part of

the forecast model which are separately prepared for each DISCO. These include:

Growth rates: the annual increase in consumption per consumer by consumption

category

Loss rates: transmission and distribution losses expressed as a percentage of

energy purchased and energy sold, respectively

Load factors: relating the amount of energy consumed to the rate at which it is

consumed (that is, the peak demand) for each consumption category

Coincidence factors: describing the load diversity within the system

The forecast calculations within the model combine the energy consumption data and the

input parameters to compute the energy and peak demand requirements within each area

for each year to be forecast. The data are accumulated from the area basis, to grid

stations, to DISCOs and ultimately to produce a forecast for the entire system.

Each of the three model component is discussed in detail below.

3.2 Survey Base Data

An extensive data base has been developed on gross consumption by consumer category

household (domestic), commercial, small industrial, large industrial, tube wells

(agriculture), public lighting, and traction (electric rail). Energy consumption comes

from consumer service meter readings. Maximum demand readings and load factors for

large industrial users and other demand-meteredconsumers are based on service meter

readings. The consumption data is collected from Computer Centers of each DISCO (It

is feeder-wise category-wise consumption data).

Actual consumption data are also adjusted for unserved demands attributable to load

shedding and to voluntary restraint by consumers (e.g. an industrial consumer who

agrees to close his plant or switch to auto-generation during peak hours).

The basic geographic unit represented within the data base is called an area, although

many areas are divided into two or more subareas. This occurs when portions of the

7

TESCO

area are served by different feeders or where a single feeder services different

administrative districts. Each area is assigned a series of codes which identify the

technical boundaries associated with the area.

The technical boundaries, which are emphasized in this report, start at the grid station.

Thus, all areas and subareas are assigned to one of the all the sub-stations in each

DISCO. These are distribution grid stations supplying power at 11 kV after

transformation from a 132 or 66 kV source. Grid stations are combined to form

DISCO.

There can be up to eleven records in the data base for each area or subarea, one record

for each year of forecast. The first year is typically year zero and records the base year

level of consumption for each consumption category as determined in the survey. The

remaining records for the area list the incremental consumption associated with new

consumers to be added to the area within the specified year.

This incremental consumption is based on applications for new or extended service

which are filed at each revenue office and from discussions with the relevant industries

and government agencies. Incremental industrial consumption is based on a

combination of interviews, trend projections, and reviews of applications for new and/or

increased service. Interviews are held with major industrial consumers to identify their

current capacity utilization and any long-term plans they have for future expansion or

changes in their electricity consumption. Auto-generation is also recorded. In addition,

the various branches of the Ministry of Industries are interviewed to determine how

many applications for new developments or plant expansions have been received, and

what the anticipated electrical load associated with each is likely to be. These

anticipated new demands are added to the basic forecast of industrial consumption.

Extension of electricity to new areas over the forecast period is dealt with separately.

The number of new communities to be electrified is also obtained. Initial loads and

load growth are calculated based on past experience in terms of market penetration and

consumption per consumer in newly electrified communities. This analysis is

conducted at DISCO level.

There are over 10,000 area/subarea/year records in the data base.

3.3 Input Parameters

A number of input parameters are defined for use in the Power Market Survey Model.

These parameters are:

Transmission and distribution loss rates

The rates of growth in consumption per consumer

Load factors for each consumption category

Coincidence or diversity factors

The definition and basic derivation of each is discussed below.

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TESCO

3.4 Growth Rates

The forecast calculations, as will be discussed below, use per consumer growth rates to

update the previous year's consumption before adding the incremental consumption

estimate for the current year. The Power Market Survey Model requires per consumer

growth rates to be specified by DISCO for each consumption category (domestic,

commercial, etc). The rates selected for the Forecast are based on average annual

compound growth rates, calculated from the last six years data of each consumer

category in each DISCO.

3.5 Losses

For every 100 units of electricity purchased from a power station only 75 to 85 units are

actually sold to the ultimate end-user. The remainder is consumed by the power system

itself in the transmission and distribution of the sold energy. These transmission and

distribution losses must be added to the sales forecast in order to determine the total

generation requirement for the system. An additional source of "loss", the consumption

in auxiliaries (also called station service) used by the power plants in the process of

generating electricity. Auxiliary consumption cannot be avoided and is totally

dependent on the type of generation system. For example, a thermal plant would have a

higher station service than a hydro plant to account for the energy consumed by fuel and

waste handling systems. Auxiliary losses are determined and incorporated in the

forecast outside the model.

Within the Power Market Survey Model, distribution losses are expressed as a

percentage of sales and transmission losses as a percentage of the energy purchased from

the generating stations. The model is capable of handling different loss rates for each

year for each DISCO. The distribution and transmission losses used in the Power Market

Survey Model are based on the review of current loss rates and an evaluation of existing

loss reduction initiatives within PEPCO. The losses proposed are differentiated by

DISCOs and distribution at losses 11 kV and transmission losses at 132 kV are applied

DISCO-wise. A separate excel sheet has been developed outside the model to calculate

the loss rates needed for the model. The loss rates have been set to match observed

performance.

3.6 Load Factors

Energy sale in each consumption category is converted to peak power demand through

the use of a load factor. It expresses the ratio of the amount of energy actually consumed

to the amount that would have been consumed had the peak rate been continued over the

entire period. Load factors can be calculated over any time period but the most common

are daily, weekly and annual.

The load factors utilized in the Power Market Survey Model relate annual energy sales to

peak capacity for each consumer category (domestic, commercial, public lighting, small

industries and private tube wells). Input load factors are not required for medium/large

industry, public tube well and traction sales as consumption for these sectors is provided

through the survey in both energy and power terms.

9

TESCO

Maximum demand readings are available directly for large industrial and other demand

metered consumers such as public tube wells. Load factors for non-demand metered

consumers are determined on a sample basis. For example, peak demand is based on

maximum demand readings from substation feeders which are identified as serving

predominantly one sector.

Domestic and commercial load factors are differentiated by community size (village,

town or city). Whereas a single load factor is used for small industrial, private tube

wells, public lighting and traction because of the similar nature in the operation of these

loads. While there is some variation in the load factors within the domestic and

commercial sectors, there are no differences in any of the load factors by DISCO.

3.7 Coincidence Factors

The total energy demand of a number of individual consumers is determined as the

simple sum of their individual energy consumption values. The total peak load,

however, is calculated as the diversified sum of their individual peak load levels. The

coincidence factor, as its name implies, is a general term which measures the

coincidence between the peak loads of any number of individual consumers or consumer

groups over a specified time period in order to compute a combined peak.

Mathematically, it is the inverse of the diversity factor.

The daily coincidence factor is determined by comparing the daily load patterns of each

consumer or group under consideration. In this case, the sum of the individual hourly (or

15-minute) peaks would determine the overall daily load pattern and the overall peak

load. If, for example, one consumer (or group) consumes energy only in the morning

and a second group consume only in the evening, the coincidence factor between these

two consumers would be zero and the peak load of the combined group would be the

peak of the larger consumer. Conversely, if both groups consumed all energy at the

same hour, the coincidence factor would be one and the combined peak would be the

sum of the two peaks. In practice, the coincidence factor is found between these two

extremes.

Coincidence factors can be determined between any group and sub-group of consumers

whether it is domestic versus commercial or Lahore versus Islamabad, provided that

reasonable estimates of the appropriate load patterns are available. Typically, these

patterns are not readily available and must be synthesized from incomplete or estimated

data. In addition, all coincidence factors calculated from these load patterns are

approximations of the corresponding instantaneous peak faced by the system. In fact, a

common practice is to define this instantaneous peak as the bench mark and specify all

coincidence factors in relation to this peak and time. The advantage of this approach is

that all peak can be easily converted into their contribution to the overall system peak,

the disadvantage is that the relationship between any two groups cannot be so clearly

specified and will likely be incorrectly specified.

The Power Market Survey Model depends upon specified coincidence factors between

consumption categories and between consumption areas in the aggregation of peak loads

from consumers to the peaks at grid stations and at DISCO level and at the level of

overall system peak. The coincidence factors estimated for the medium term model have

been based on the limited available PEPCO records of the peak loads at various points in

their respective systems.

10

TESCO

3.8 Forecast Calculations

The forecast calculations involve three basic steps. First, an energy forecast is

determined at the area (or subarea) level using per consumer growth rates and

incremental consumption estimates from the data base. This is then converted to a peak

demand forecast, again at the area (or subarea) level using the input load and diversity

factors. Then transmission and distribution losses are added and final step is to

accumulate the areas into their corresponding grid stations, and grid stations into their

DISCO and finally all DISCOs to form the system.

3.9 Energy Calculations

The basic calculation unit is the area or subarea. The data base provides the base year

energy consumption level for each of six consumption categories: domestic,

commercial, public lighting, small industrial, private tube wells and medium and large

industry. The database also includes the peak demand associated with the medium and

large industry category. The domestic energy forecast for year 1 (the base year is year 0)

is calculated by multiplying the base year consumption by the domestic per consumer

growth rate to account for growth in the intensity of use in the sector then adding the

incremental consumption listed in the data base to account for new use in the sector.

This process is repeated for the remaining five energy sectors (plus the medium and

large industrial demand) for each of the remaining 9 years. The total energy consumed in

the subarea within the year is then computed.

3.10 Peak Demand Calculations

The annual energy values for each of the domestic, commercial, public lighting, small

industry and private tube well categories are converted to peak demand using the load

factors listed in the appropriate input parameter file and adjusted to account for

coincidence within the category. The annual peak demand for the area or subarea is

computed as the sum of the individual category peaks multiplied by coincidence factors

within the subarea and for each subarea within an area.

3.11 Accumulations

The total energy and peak demand at a given grid station is calculated as the sum of all

the areas and subareas in that grid station's service area plus an allowance for distribution

losses. Peak demand estimates are accumulated and different coincidence factors

applied to city, town and village areas within the service area. The total energy and peak

demand within a given DISCO is the sum of all grid stations in that DISCO plus traction

and an allowance for transmission losses. Peak demands are again diversified in the

accumulation, and the system totals are obtained from DISCO’s total with some

coincidence.

11

TESCO

4 PMS Forecast Results

4.1 Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding)

The term ‘recorded’ means the sale used in forecast has not been adjusted for un-served

energy (load shedding). Forecasted sale, transmission and distribution losses, generation

requirements and peak demand without load shedding has been shown on Table 1-1.

4.2 Computed Forecast (Including Load Shedding)

The term ‘computed’ means the sale used in forecast has been adjusted for un-served

energy (load shedding) and it is considered as base forecast. Computed forecast has been

shown in Table 1-2. Peak demand of this table has been demonstrated graphically in

Figure 1-6. Similarly energy sale and energy purchased also have been shown in Figure

1-7, the difference shows the losses of DISCO.

Figure 1- 6: Computed Peak Demand (MW)

Figure 1- 7: Energy Purchased VS Energy Sale

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Computed Peak Demand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

EnergyPurchased(GWh)

Energy Sale(GWh)

12

TESCO

4.3 Category-wise Forecasted Energy Sale (GWh)

Percentage share of each consumer category in total sale of year 2017-18 and year 2023-

24 has been depicted in Figure 1-8.

Figure 1- 8 Forecasted Category-wise Sale

The category-wise forecasted sale with and without load shedding are shown in Table 1-

3 and 1-4 respectively.

4.4 Category-wise Power Demand (MW)

Power demand projection is the most important parameter for the planning of generation,

transmission facility and distribution, may it be long term planning or short term

1841 (GWh) 88%

15(GWh) 1%

0(GWh) 0%

99(GWh) 5%

30(GWh) 1%

115(GWh) 5% 2017-18

Domestic

Commercial

Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well

2269 (GWh) 85%

20(GWh) 1%

0(GWh) 0%

133(GWh) 5% 48 (GWh)

2% 204(GWh)

7% 2023-24

Domestic

Commercial

Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well

13

TESCO

planning. Tables 1-5 and 1-6 show the category-wise demand (MW) without and with

load shedding respectively.

4.5 Peak Demand of Substations

A projection at a sub-station is the most peculiar feature of this report. It is indeed a very

rare and useful forecast. It’s the base of transmission system expansion planning. It also

provides a very solid ground for proposing a new sub-station or augmentation, extension

and conversion of a sub-station. All the losses have been considered for calculating the

peak demand of substations.

The peak demand of each substation, weather existing or proposed, situated in the

service area of the DISCO has been shown in the Table 1-25.

4.6 Per Capita Consumption

Per capita consumption is a very vivid indicator of development in a country. Usually

developed countries have very high per capita consumption. The consumption for the

years 2016-17, 2018-19 and 2023-24 are obtained from forecasted data. The population

is projected by using the growth rate of population of FATA given in Census report of

1998. Per capita consumption (kWh/person) is given in Figure 1-9.

Figure 1- 9: Per Capita Consumption (KWh)

4.7 Category-wise Substation-wise Energy and Demand Projections

The category-wise substation-wise energy and demand projections have been presented

in Table 1-26. The last column of the table contains power factor and reactive power

values. In order to reduce the volume of the report, only the values last year are

presented i.e. 2023-24.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2017-18 2019-20 2023-24

670 673

770 819 844

896

14

TESCO

4.8 Civil Administrative Area Forecast

The TESCO service area comprises of four civil administrative divisions and ten

districts’; Ghallani, Khyber, Bajour, Darra, Para Chinnar, Orakzai, MiranShah, MirAli,

Wana, Tank. The Distric-wise and civil administrative Division -wise energy and

demand projections have been presented in Tables 1-7 to 1-20. The last column of the

table contains peak demand.

4.9 Monthly Demand (MW) Projections

The Month–wise demand (MW) projections of the respected DISCO have been

presented in Table 1-21. To develop this projection, monthly demand factors are

computed for last five years and then its average is taken as a base for monthly demand

projection.

4.10 List of Overloaded Substations

There have been several incidents of damage and fire at a number of sub-stations across

the country due to overloading and they need augmentation or addition of a transformer.

The list of overloaded substation will inform about that particular year in which a

substation will be overloaded. The overloading criterion of a substation has been

considered as 85% i.e. when any substation is 85% loaded the remedial measures should

be taken in the form of new substation or augmentation of the existing transformers.

Table 1-22 and Table 1-23 shows the list of overloaded substations based on overloading

criterion of 85% and 100% respectively.

4.11 List of Grids with their Codes and MVA Capacities

The list of Grids contains each substation having their codes and tranformers’ MVA

capacities are enlisted in the Table 1-24.

15

TESCO

Table 1- 1: PMS Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding)

Year

Energy Sale

Distribution Losses

Transmission Losses

Energy Sent out

Load Factor

Peak Demand

(GWh) G.R (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (MW)

2013-14 1366 293 17.3 37 2.18 1696 66 292

2014-15 1420 3.9 295 16.8 38 2.17 1753 66 301

2015-16 1476 4.0 296 16.4 39 2.16 1812 66 311

2016-17 1535 4.0 297 15.9 40 2.15 1873 66 321

2017-18 1626 5.9 304 15.4 42 2.14 1972 67 338

2018-19 1693 4.1 304 14.9 44 2.13 2041 67 349

2019-20 1762 4.1 305 14.4 45 2.12 2112 67 361

2020-21 1835 4.1 304 13.9 46 2.11 2186 67 373

2021-22 1911 4.2 304 13.4 48 2.10 2262 67 386

2022-23 1991 4.2 302 12.9 49 2.10 2343 67 399

2023-24 2075 4.2 300 12.4 51 2.09 2426 67 413

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.27%

3.64%

3.52%

16

TESCO

Table 1- 2: PMS Base Forecast

Year

Computed Energy

Load Shed G.R

Distribution Losses

Transmission Losses

Computed Energy

Sent Out

Load Factor

Computed Peak

Demand G.R

(GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (MW) (%)

2013-14 1772 381 17.7 48.0 2.18 2201 38 653

2014-15 1842 3.9 383 17.2 49.4 2.17 2274 39 674 3.2

2015-16 1915 3.9 384 16.7 50.8 2.16 2350 39 696 3.3

2016-17 1990 4.0 386 16.2 52.3 2.15 2428 39 719 3.3

2017-18 2100 5.5 392 15.7 54.6 2.14 2546 39 752 4.6

2018-19 2185 4.1 393 15.2 56.2 2.13 2634 39 777 3.3

2019-20 2274 4.1 393 14.7 57.9 2.12 2724 39 803 3.3

2020-21 2367 4.1 392 14.2 59.6 2.11 2819 39 830 3.4

2021-22 2464 4.1 391 13.7 61.4 2.10 2917 39 858 3.4

2022-23 2567 4.1 390 13.2 63.3 2.10 3019 39 887 3.4

2023-24 2674 4.2 387 12.6 65.2 2.09 3126 39 918 3.4

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.20%

3.57% 3.46%

17

TESCO

Table 1- 3: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Base Forecast)

Year Domestic Commercial Public Light

Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well Total

Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R

2013-14 1234 10 0 62 0 60 1366

2014-15 1278 3.6 11 4.3 0 0.0 65 5.2 0 0.0 66 10.2 1420 3.9

2015-16 1324 3.6 11 4.3 0 0.0 69 5.2 0 0.0 73 10.2 1476 4.0

2016-17 1371 3.6 11 4.3 0 0.0 72 5.2 0 0.0 80 10.2 1535 4.0

2017-18 1420 3.6 12 4.3 0 0.0 76 5.2 30 0.0 88 10.1 1626 5.9

2018-19 1470 3.6 12 4.3 0 0.0 80 5.2 32 8.0 97 10.1 1693 4.1

2019-20 1523 3.6 13 4.2 0 0.0 84 5.2 35 8.0 107 10.1 1762 4.1

2020-21 1577 3.6 14 4.2 0 0.0 89 5.2 38 8.0 118 10.1 1835 4.1

2021-22 1633 3.6 14 4.2 0 0.0 93 5.2 41 8.0 130 10.1 1911 4.2

2022-23 1691 3.6 15 4.2 0 0.0 98 5.2 44 8.0 143 10.1 1991 4.2

2023-24 1751 3.6 15 4.2 0 0.0 103 5.2 48 8.0 158 10.1 2075 4.2

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.57% 4.25%

0.00%

5.19%

0.00% 10.13% 4.27%

18

TESCO

Table 1- 4: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Base Forecast)

Year

Domestic Commercial Public Light Small

Industries M&L

Industries Tube Well Total

Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R Energy G.R

2013-14 1601 13 0 81 0 78 1772

2014-15 1658 3.6 14 4.2 0 0.0 85 5.2 0 0.0 86 10.1 1842 3.9

2015-16 1717 3.6 14 4.2 0 0.0 89 5.2 0 0.0 95 10.1 1915 3.9

2016-17 1778 3.6 15 4.2 0 0.0 94 5.2 0 0.0 104 10.1 1990 4.0

2017-18 1841 3.6 15 4.2 0 0.0 99 5.2 30 0.0 115 10.1 2100 5.5

2018-19 1906 3.6 16 4.2 0 0.0 104 5.2 32 8.0 126 10.1 2185 4.1

2019-20 1974 3.5 17 4.2 0 0.0 109 5.1 35 8.0 139 10.1 2274 4.1

2020-21 2044 3.5 17 4.2 0 0.0 115 5.1 38 8.0 153 10.1 2367 4.1

2021-22 2117 3.5 18 4.2 0 0.0 120 5.1 41 8.0 168 10.1 2464 4.1

2022-23 2192 3.5 19 4.2 0 0.0 127 5.1 44 8.0 185 10.1 2567 4.1

2023-24 2269 3.5 20 4.2 0 0.0 133 5.1 48 8.0 204 10.1 2674 4.2

Ave. Growth

(2014-2024) 3.55% 4.19%

0.00%

5.15%

0.00% 10.10% 4.20%

19

TESCO

Table 1- 5: Category-wise Demand – MW (Excluding Load Shedding)


Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well Total

Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R

2013-14 254 2 0 11 0 9 235

2014-15 263 3.6 2 4.3 0 0.0 11 5.2 0 0.0 10 10.2 244 3.9

2015-16 273 3.6 3 4.3 0 0.0 12 5.2 0 0.0 11 10.2 254 3.9

2016-17 282 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 12 5.2 0 0.0 12 10.2 264 3.9

2017-18 292 3.6 3 4.3 0 0.0 13 5.2 6 0.0 14 10.1 278 5.7

2018-19 303 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 14 5.2 6 8.0 15 10.1 290 4.0

2019-20 314 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 15 5.2 6 8.0 17 10.1 301 4.0

2020-21 325 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 15 5.2 7 8.0 18 10.1 313 4.0

2021-22 336 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 16 5.2 8 8.0 20 10.1 326 4.0

2022-23 348 3.6 3 4.2 0 0.0 17 5.2 8 8.0 22 10.1 339 4.1

2023-24 361 3.5 4 4.2 0 0.0 18 5.2 9 8.0 24 10.1 353 4.1

Ave. Growth

(2014-2024) 3.56% 4.23%

0.00%

5.20%

8.00% 10.13% 4.14%

20

TESCO

Table 1- 6: Category-wise Demand – MW (Including Load Shedding)


Small Industries

M&L Industries

Tube Well Total

Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R Demand G.R

2013-14 564 5 0 28 0 21 526

2014-15 584 3.6 5 4.2 0 0.0 30 5.2 0 0.0 23 10.1 546 3.9

2015-16 605 3.6 6 4.2 0 0.0 31 5.2 0 0.0 25 10.1 567 3.9

2016-17 627 3.5 6 4.2 0 0.0 33 5.2 0 0.0 28 10.1 589 3.9

2017-18 649 3.5 6 4.2 0 0.0 35 5.2 9 0.0 30 10.1 620 5.3

2018-19 672 3.5 6 4.2 0 0.0 37 5.2 10 8.0 33 10.1 645 4.0

2019-20 696 3.5 7 4.2 0 0.0 38 5.1 11 8.0 37 10.1 670 4.0

2020-21 720 3.5 7 4.2 0 0.0 40 5.1 12 8.0 40 10.1 697 4.0

2021-22 746 3.5 7 4.2 0 0.0 42 5.1 13 8.0 45 10.1 725 4.0

2022-23 772 3.5 8 4.2 0 0.0 45 5.1 14 8.0 49 10.1 754 4.0

2023-24 800 3.5 8 4.2 0 0.0 47 5.1 15 8.0 54 10.1 785 4.1

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.54% 4.18%

0.00%

5.15%

8.00% 10.10% 4.09%

21

TESCO

Table 1- 7: District-wise Sale (GWh) ,Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Ghallanai

Year Energy Sale Distribution Losses Transmission Losses Generation Load Factor Peak

Demand

(GWh) G.R.(%) (GWh) % (GWh) % (GWh) % (MW)

2013-14 840 0.00 180 17.68 23 2.18 1043 47 256

2014-15 872 3.82 181 17.20 23 2.17 1077 47 264

2015-16 906 3.83 182 16.72 24 2.16 1112 47 273

2016-17 940 3.84 182 16.23 25 2.15 1147 46 282

2017-18 1007 7.04 188 15.74 26 2.14 1221 46 302

2018-19 1047 3.98 188 15.24 27 2.13 1262 46 313

2019-20 1089 4.00 188 14.73 28 2.12 1304 46 323

2020-21 1132 4.01 188 14.22 29 2.11 1348 46 335

2021-22 1178 4.03 187 13.70 29 2.10 1394 46 346

2022-23 1226 4.05 186 13.18 30 2.10 1442 46 358

2023-24 1275 4.07 185 12.65 31 2.09 1491 46 371

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.26%

3.64%

3.78%

22

TESCO

Table 1- 8: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Khyber

Year Energy Sale Distribution Losses Transmission Losses Generation Load Factor

Peak Demand


2013-14 67 0.00 14 17.68 2 2.18 83 37 26

2014-15 70 4.66 15 17.20 2 2.17 86 37 27

2015-16 73 4.69 15 16.72 2 2.16 90 37 28

2016-17 77 4.72 15 16.23 2 2.15 94 37 29

2017-18 80 4.76 15 15.74 2 2.14 97 37 30

2018-19 84 4.79 15 15.24 2 2.13 101 37 31

2019-20 88 4.83 15 14.73 2 2.12 106 37 32

2020-21 93 4.88 15 14.22 2 2.11 110 37 34

2021-22 97 4.92 15 13.70 2 2.10 115 37 35

2022-23 102 4.97 15 13.18 3 2.10 120 38 36

2023-24 107 5.02 15 12.65 3 2.09 125 38 38

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.82%

4.19%

4.05%

23

TESCO

Table 1- 9: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Bajour


Peak Demand


2013-14 34 0.00 7 17.68 1 2.18 42 30 16

2014-15 36 6.20 7 17.20 1 2.17 44 30 17

2015-16 38 6.26 8 16.72 1 2.16 47 30 18

2016-17 40 6.31 8 16.23 1 2.15 49 31 18

2017-18 43 6.37 8 15.74 1 2.14 52 31 19

2018-19 46 6.43 8 15.24 1 2.13 55 31 20

2019-20 49 6.49 8 14.73 1 2.12 58 31 21

2020-21 52 6.55 9 14.22 1 2.11 62 31 22

2021-22 55 6.61 9 13.70 1 2.10 66 32 24

2022-23 59 6.67 9 13.18 1 2.10 69 32 25

2023-24 63 6.74 9 12.65 2 2.09 74 32 26

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

6.46%

5.82%

5.13%

24

TESCO

Table 1- 10: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation (GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Bara


Peak Demand


2013-14 67 0.00 14 17.68 2 2.18 84 19 49

2014-15 36 3.72 15 17.20 2 2.17 86 19 51

2015-16 38 3.72 15 16.72 2 2.16 89 19 52

2016-17 40 3.73 15 16.23 2 2.15 92 19 54

2017-18 43 3.73 15 15.74 2 2.14 94 20 55

2018-19 46 3.73 15 15.24 2 2.13 97 20 57

2019-20 49 3.73 14 14.73 2 2.12 100 20 59

2020-21 52 3.73 14 14.22 2 2.11 104 20 60

2021-22 55 3.73 14 13.70 2 2.10 107 20 62

2022-23 59 3.73 14 13.18 2 2.10 110 20 64

2023-24 63 3.73 14 12.65 2 2.09 113 20 66

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

-0.65%

3.10%

3.03%

25

TESCO

Table 1- 11: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Lakarai


Peak Demand


2013-14 47 0.00 10 17.68 1 2.18 59 30 22

2014-15 49 3.58 10 17.20 1 2.17 60 30 23

2015-16 51 3.59 10 16.72 1 2.16 62 30 24

2016-17 53 3.59 10 16.23 1 2.15 64 30 25

2017-18 54 3.60 10 15.74 1 2.14 66 30 25

2018-19 56 3.60 10 15.24 1 2.13 68 30 26

2019-20 58 3.61 10 14.73 1 2.12 70 30 27

2020-21 61 3.62 10 14.22 2 2.11 72 30 28

2021-22 63 3.62 10 13.70 2 2.10 74 30 28

2022-23 65 3.63 10 13.18 2 2.10 77 30 29

2023-24 67 3.64 10 12.65 2 2.09 79 30 30

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.61%

2.98%

2.95%

26

TESCO

Table 1- 12: District-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tangi


Peak Demand


2013-14 29 0.00 6 17.68 1 2.18 35 37 11

2014-15 30 3.54 6 17.20 1 2.17 37 37 11

2015-16 31 3.55 6 16.72 1 2.16 38 37 12

2016-17 32 3.55 6 16.23 1 2.15 39 37 12

2017-18 33 3.55 6 15.74 1 2.14 40 37 12

2018-19 34 3.55 6 15.24 1 2.13 41 37 13

2019-20 35 3.55 6 14.73 1 2.12 42 37 13

2020-21 36 3.56 6 14.22 37 2.11 43 37 13

2021-22 38 3.56 6 13.70 1 2.10 45 37 14

2022-23 39 3.56 6 13.18 1 2.10 46 37 14

2023-24 40 3.57 6 12.65 1 2.09 47 37 15

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.55%

2.93%

2.92%

27

TESCO

Table 1- 13: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Darra


Peak Demand


2013-14 31 0.00 7 17.68 1 2.18 39 31 14

2014-15 32 3.56 7 17.20 1 2.17 40 31 15

2015-16 34 3.56 7 16.72 1 2.16 41 31 15

2016-17 35 3.56 7 16.23 1 2.15 42 31 16

2017-18 36 3.56 7 15.74 1 2.14 44 31 16

2018-19 37 3.56 7 15.24 1 2.13 45 31 17

2019-20 39 3.56 7 14.73 1 2.12 46 31 17

2020-21 40 3.56 7 14.22 1 2.11 48 31 18

2021-22 41 3.56 7 13.70 1 2.10 49 31 18

2022-23 43 3.56 7 13.18 1 2.10 50 31 19

2023-24 44 3.56 6 12.65 1 2.09 52 31 19

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.56%

2.94%

2.94%

28

TESCO

Table 1- 14: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Sadda


Peak Demand


2013-14 163 0.00 35 17.68 4 2.18 202 24 97

2014-15 169 4.12 35 17.20 5 2.17 209 24 100

2015-16 176 4.16 35 16.72 5 2.16 217 24 103

2016-17 184 4.19 36 16.23 5 2.15 224 24 107

2017-18 192 4.23 36 15.74 5 2.14 232 24 110

2018-19 200 4.27 36 15.24 5 2.13 241 24 114

2019-20 208 4.31 36 14.73 5 2.12 250 24 118

2020-21 217 4.35 36 14.22 5 2.11 259 24 121

2021-22 227 4.40 36 13.70 6 2.10 269 24 126

2022-23 237 4.44 36 13.18 6 2.10 279 25 130

2023-24 248 4.49 36 12.65 6 2.09 290 25 134

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.30%

3.67%

3.32%

29

TESCO

Table 1- 15: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tall


Peak Demand


2013-14 39 0.00 8 17.68 1 2.18 48 15 37

2014-15 40 3.53 8 17.20 1 2.17 50 15 38

2015-16 42 3.53 8 16.72 1 2.16 51 15 39

2016-17 43 3.53 8 16.23 1 2.15 53 15 40

2017-18 45 3.53 8 15.74 1 2.14 54 15 41

2018-19 46 3.53 8 15.24 1 2.13 56 15 43

2019-20 48 3.53 8 14.73 1 2.12 57 15 44

2020-21 50 3.53 8 14.22 1 2.11 59 15 45

2021-22 51 3.53 8 13.70 1 2.10 61 15 46

2022-23 53 3.54 8 13.18 1 2.10 63 15 48

2023-24 55 3.54 8 12.65 1 2.09 64 15 49

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.53%

2.91%

2.89%

30

TESCO

Table 1- 16: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Mattani


Peak Demand


2013-14 46 0.00 10 17.68 1 2.18 58 35 19

2014-15 49 5.89 10 17.20 1 2.17 61 35 20

2015-16 52 5.99 10 16.72 1 2.16 64 35 21

2016-17 55 6.08 11 16.23 1 2.15 67 35 22

2017-18 59 6.17 11 15.74 2 2.14 71 35 23

2018-19 62 6.27 11 15.24 2 2.13 75 36 24

2019-20 66 6.36 11 14.73 2 2.12 79 36 25

2020-21 70 6.46 12 14.22 2 2.11 84 36 27

2021-22 75 6.56 12 13.70 2 2.10 89 36 28

2022-23 80 6.66 12 13.18 2 2.10 94 36 30

2023-24 86 6.75 12 12.65 2 2.09 100 37 31

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

6.32%

5.68%

5.13%

31

TESCO

Table 1- 17: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Gumbat


Peak Demand


2013-14 15 0.00 3 17.68 0 0.39 18 43 5

2014-15 15 3.51 3 17.20 0 0.40 19 43 5

2015-16 16 3.51 3 16.72 0 2.16 19 43 5

2016-17 16 3.51 3 16.23 0 2.15 20 43 5

2017-18 17 3.51 3 15.74 0 2.14 20 43 5

2018-19 17 3.51 3 15.24 0 2.13 21 43 5

2019-20 18 3.51 3 14.73 0 2.12 21 43 6

2020-21 19 3.51 3 14.22 0 2.11 22 43 6

2021-22 19 3.51 3 13.70 0 2.10 23 43 6

2022-23 20 3.52 3 13.18 0 2.10 23 43 6

2023-24 21 3.52 3 12.65 1 2.09 24 43 6

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.51%

2.89%

2.89%

32

TESCO

Table 1- 18: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Miran

Shah


Peak Demand


2013-14 82 0.00 18 17.68 2 2.23 102 22 53

2014-15 85 3.69 18 17.20 2 2.29 106 22 54

2015-16 89 3.69 18 16.72 2 2.16 109 22 56

2016-17 92 3.68 18 16.23 2 2.15 112 22 58

2017-18 95 3.68 18 15.74 2 2.14 116 22 60

2018-19 99 3.68 18 15.24 3 2.13 119 22 61

2019-20 102 3.68 18 14.73 3 2.12 123 22 63

2020-21 106 3.68 18 14.22 3 2.11 126 22 65

2021-22 110 3.68 17 13.70 3 2.10 130 22 67

2022-23 114 3.68 17 13.18 3 2.10 134 22 69

2023-24 118 3.68 17 12.65 3 2.09 138 22 71

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.68%

3.06%

2.99%

33

TESCO

Table 1- 19: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Mir Ali


Peak Demand


2013-14 61 0.00 13 17.68 2 1.66 76 31 28

2014-15 63 3.70 13 17.20 2 1.70 78 31 29

2015-16 66 3.70 13 16.72 2 2.16 81 31 30

2016-17 68 3.69 13 16.23 2 2.15 83 31 31

2017-18 71 3.69 13 15.74 2 2.14 86 31 32

2018-19 73 3.68 13 15.24 2 2.13 88 31 33

2019-20 76 3.67 13 14.73 2 2.12 91 31 34

2020-21 79 3.67 13 14.22 2 2.11 94 31 35

2021-22 82 3.66 13 13.70 2 2.10 97 31 36

2022-23 85 3.66 13 13.18 2 2.10 100 31 37

2023-24 88 3.65 13 12.65 2 2.09 103 31 38

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.68%

3.05%

3.05%

34

TESCO

Table 1- 20: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Wana


Peak Demand


2013-14 39 0.00 8 17.68 1 2.18 48 19 30

2014-15 40 3.55 8 17.20 1 1.08 50 19 31

2015-16 42 3.55 8 16.72 1 2.16 51 19 31

2016-17 43 3.55 8 16.23 1 2.15 53 19 32

2017-18 45 3.55 8 15.74 1 2.14 54 19 33

2018-19 46 3.55 8 15.24 1 2.13 56 19 34

2019-20 48 3.55 8 14.73 1 2.12 58 19 35

2020-21 50 3.55 8 14.22 1 2.11 59 19 36

2021-22 51 3.54 8 13.70 1 2.10 61 19 37

2022-23 53 3.54 8 13.18 1 2.10 63 19 38

2023-24 55 3.54 8 12.65 1 2.09 65 19 40

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.55%

2.92%

2.92%

35

TESCO

Table 1- 21: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Kalaya


Peak Demand


2013-14 17 0.00 4 17.68 0 0.47 22 22 11

2014-15 18 3.57 4 17.20 0 0.48 22 22 11

2015-16 19 3.57 4 16.72 0 2.16 23 22 12

2016-17 19 3.58 4 16.23 1 2.15 24 22 12

2017-18 20 3.58 4 15.74 1 2.14 24 22 12

2018-19 21 3.58 4 15.24 1 2.13 25 22 13

2019-20 21 3.59 4 14.73 1 2.12 26 22 13

2020-21 22 3.59 4 14.22 1 2.11 26 22 13

2021-22 23 3.60 4 13.70 1 2.10 27 22 14

2022-23 24 3.60 4 13.18 1 2.10 28 22 14

2023-24 25 3.61 4 12.65 1 2.09 29 22 15

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.59%

2.96%

2.93%

36

TESCO

Table 1- 22: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Tank


Peak Demand


2013-14 79 0.00 17 17.68 2 2.15 99 31 36

2014-15 82 3.50 17 17.20 2 2.20 101 31 37

2015-16 85 3.50 17 16.72 2 2.16 104 31 38

2016-17 88 3.50 17 16.23 2 2.15 107 31 40

2017-18 91 3.50 17 15.74 2 2.14 110 31 41

2018-19 94 3.50 17 15.24 2 2.13 114 31 42

2019-20 98 3.50 17 14.73 2 2.12 117 31 43

2020-21 101 3.50 17 14.22 3 2.11 120 31 44

2021-22 104 3.50 17 13.70 3 2.10 124 31 46

2022-23 108 3.50 16 13.18 3 2.10 127 31 47

2023-24 112 3.50 16 12.65 3 2.09 131 31 48

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.50%

2.88%

2.88%

37

TESCO

Table 1- 23: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Jandola


Peak Demand


2013-14 22 0.00 5 17.68 1 0.59 27 37 8

2014-15 23 5.59 5 17.20 1 0.61 28 37 9

2015-16 24 5.68 5 16.72 1 2.16 30 37 9

2016-17 26 5.76 5 16.23 1 2.15 31 38 9

2017-18 27 5.85 5 15.74 1 2.14 33 38 10

2018-19 29 5.94 5 15.24 1 2.13 35 38 10

2019-20 30 6.04 5 14.73 1 2.12 36 38 11

2020-21 32 6.13 5 14.22 1 2.11 38 38 12

2021-22 34 6.22 5 13.70 1 2.10 41 38 12

2022-23 36 6.32 6 13.18 1 2.10 43 38 13

2023-24 39 6.41 6 12.65 1 2.09 45 38 13

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

5.99%

5.36%

5.00%

38

TESCO

Table 1- 24: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Prova


Peak Demand


2013-14 7 0.00 2 17.68 0 0.20 9 25 4

2014-15 7 3.53 2 17.20 0 0.20 9 25 4

2015-16 8 3.53 2 16.72 0 2.16 10 25 4

2016-17 8 3.53 2 16.23 0 2.15 10 25 5

2017-18 8 3.53 2 15.74 0 2.14 10 25 5

2018-19 9 3.53 2 15.24 0 2.13 10 25 5

2019-20 9 3.53 2 14.73 0 2.12 11 25 5

2020-21 9 3.53 2 14.22 0 2.11 11 25 5

2021-22 10 3.53 2 13.70 0 2.10 11 25 5

2022-23 10 3.54 2 13.18 0 2.10 12 25 5

2023-24 10 3.54 1 12.65 0 2.09 12 25 6

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.53%

2.91%

2.90%

39

TESCO

Table 1- 25: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Ramzak


Peak Demand


2013-14 16 0.00 3 17.68 0 0.43 20 31 7

2014-15 16 3.51 3 17.20 0 0.44 20 31 7

2015-16 17 3.51 3 16.72 0 2.16 21 31 8

2016-17 18 3.51 3 16.23 0 2.15 21 31 8

2017-18 18 3.51 3 15.74 0 2.14 22 31 8

2018-19 19 3.51 3 15.24 0 2.13 23 31 8

2019-20 19 3.51 3 14.73 0 2.12 23 31 9

2020-21 20 3.51 3 14.22 1 2.11 24 31 9

2021-22 21 3.51 3 13.70 1 2.10 25 31 9

2022-23 22 3.51 3 13.18 1 2.10 25 31 9

2023-24 22 3.51 3 12.65 1 2.09 26 31 10

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.51%

2.88%

2.88%

40

TESCO

Table 1- 26: District -wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For District: Domail


Peak Demand


2013-14 71 0.00 15 17.68 2 1.92 88 50 20

2014-15 73 3.58 15 17.20 2 1.97 91 50 21

2015-16 76 3.57 15 16.72 2 2.16 93 50 22

2016-17 79 3.57 15 16.23 2 2.15 96 50 22

2017-18 82 3.57 15 15.74 2 2.14 99 50 23

2018-19 84 3.57 15 15.24 2 2.13 102 50 23

2019-20 88 3.57 15 14.73 2 2.12 105 50 24

2020-21 91 3.56 15 14.22 2 2.11 108 50 25

2021-22 94 3.56 15 13.70 2 2.10 111 50 26

2022-23 97 3.56 15 13.18 2 2.10 114 50 26

2023-24 101 3.56 15 12.65 2 2.09 118 50 27

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.57%

2.94%

2.95%

41

TESCO

Table 1- 27: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Peshawar

Year Energy Sale Distribution Losses Transmission Losses Generation Load Factor Peak

Demand


2013-14 1084 0.00 233 17.68 29 2.18 1346 42 368

2014-15 1126 3.92 234 17.20 30 2.17 1391 42 380

2015-16 1171 3.94 235 16.72 31 2.16 1437 42 393

2016-17 1217 3.95 236 16.23 32 2.15 1485 42 406

2017-18 1295 6.43 242 15.74 34 2.14 1571 42 430

2018-19 1348 4.07 242 15.24 35 2.13 1625 42 445

2019-20 1403 4.09 242 14.73 36 2.12 1681 42 460

2020-21 1461 4.11 242 14.22 37 2.11 1740 42 476

2021-22 1521 4.13 242 13.70 38 2.10 1800 42 493

2022-23 1584 4.15 240 13.18 39 2.10 1864 42 510

2023-24 1650 4.18 239 12.65 40 2.09 1930 42 529

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.29%

3.67%

3.70%

42

TESCO

Table 1- 28: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Hangu


Peak Demand


2013-14 294 0.00 63 17.68 8 2.18 365 25 166

2014-15 306 4.23 64 17.20 8 2.17 378 25 172

2015-16 319 4.27 64 16.72 8 2.16 392 25 178

2016-17 333 4.31 65 16.23 9 2.15 406 25 184

2017-18 348 4.36 65 15.74 9 2.14 422 25 190

2018-19 363 4.40 65 15.24 9 2.13 437 25 196

2019-20 379 4.45 65 14.73 10 2.12 454 26 203

2020-21 396 4.50 66 14.22 10 2.11 472 26 210

2021-22 414 4.55 66 13.70 10 2.10 490 26 217

2022-23 433 4.60 66 13.18 11 2.10 510 26 225

2023-24 453 4.66 66 12.65 11 2.09 530 26 233

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

4.43%

3.80%

3.40%

43

TESCO

Table 1- 29: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation(GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Bannu


Peak Demand


2013-14 161 0.00 35 17.68 4 2.18 200 26 89

2014-15 167 3.68 35 17.20 4 2.17 206 26 92

2015-16 173 3.68 35 16.72 5 2.16 212 26 95

2016-17 179 3.68 35 16.23 5 2.15 219 26 97

2017-18 186 3.67 35 15.74 5 2.14 226 26 100

2018-19 193 3.67 35 15.24 5 2.13 232 26 103

2019-20 200 3.67 35 14.73 5 2.12 240 26 106

2020-21 207 3.67 34 14.22 5 2.11 247 26 110

2021-22 215 3.66 34 13.70 5 2.10 254 26 113

2022-23 223 3.66 34 13.18 5 2 262 26 116

2023-24 231 3.66 33 12.65 6 2.09 270 26 120

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.67%

3.05%

3.00%

44

TESCO

Table 1- 30: Division-wise Sale (GWh), Generation (GWh) and Demand (MW) Forecast For Divison: Tank


Peak Demand


2013-14 234 0.00 50 17.68 6 2 290 32 103

2014-15 243 3.73 50 17.20 7 2 300 32 106

2015-16 252 3.74 51 16.72 7 2 309 32 109

2016-17 261 3.75 51 16.23 7 2 319 32 112

2017-18 271 3.76 51 15.74 7 2 329 32 116

2018-19 281 3.77 51 15.24 7 2 339 32 119

2019-20 292 3.79 50 14.73 7 2 350 32 123

2020-21 303 3.80 50 14.22 8 2 361 32 127

2021-22 314 3.82 50 13.70 8 2 372 32 131

2022-23 327 3.83 50 13.18 8 2 384 33 135

2023-24 339 3.85 49 12.65 8 2 396 33 139

Ave. Growth (2014-2024)

3.78%

3.16%

3.08%

45

TESCO

Table 1- 31: Monthly Peak Demand Forecast

Year

July August September October November December January February March April May June

(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)

2013-14 590 601 441 605 603 458 623 653 582 552 643 546

2014-15 609 621 456 624 623 473 643 674 601 570 663 564

2015-16 629 641 471 645 643 489 664 696 621 588 685 582

2016-17 649 662 486 666 664 505 686 719 641 607 707 601

2017-18 679 693 508 696 695 528 717 752 671 635 740 629

2018-19 702 716 525 720 718 546 741 777 693 657 765 650

2019-20 725 740 543 744 742 564 766 803 716 679 790 671

2020-21 750 765 561 769 767 583 792 830 741 701 817 694

2021-22 775 790 580 795 793 602 819 858 766 725 844 717

2022-23 801 817 600 822 820 623 847 887 791 750 873 742

2023-24 829 845 620 850 848 644 875 918 818 775 903 767

46

TESCO

Table 1- 32: List of Overloaded Substations during Period 2013-14 to 2023-24 Overloading Criterion=85%

S.No. Name Rating

Grid #

Total Capacity

Total Capacity

Overloading Criterion

Overloading Criterion Year of

Overloading

Overloading Status Power

Factor KV (MVA) (MW) (MW) (%) (MW)

1 Jamrud 132 3002 26 23.14 19.67 85.00 2013-14 71.50 0.89

2 L/Kotal 132 3005 52 45.76 38.90 85.00 2013-14 56.20 0.88

3 Bara 132 3007 52 46.28 39.34 85.00 2013-14 50.50 0.89

4 Jandola 66 3010 13 10.79 9.17 85.00 2014-15 8.90 0.83

5 Hayatabad 132 3014 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 50.60 0.90

6 Wana 66 3015 33 29.70 25.25 85.00 2013-14 30.60 0.90

7 Mattani 132 3017 26 21.58 18.34 85.00 2013-14 19.50 0.83

8 Parachinar 132 3018 52 46.28 39.34 85.00 2013-14 65.90 0.89

9 Sadda 66 3019 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 26.50 0.90

10 Tall 132 3021 39 35.10 29.84 85.00 2013-14 38.10 0.90

11 Tank 66 3024 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 37.40 0.90

12 Kalaya 66 3027 13 11.70 9.95 85.00 2013-14 11.30 0.90

13 Miran Shah 132 3028 52 46.80 39.78 85.00 2013-14 47.50 0.90

14 Mir Ali 132 3031 39 35.10 29.84 85.00 2013-14 29.00 0.90

15 Ghallani 132 3032 65 58.50 49.73 85.00 2013-14 50.20 0.90

16 Lakkari 66 3033 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 23.10 0.90

17 Domail 220 3034 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 20.90 0.90

18 Tangi 132 3036 13 11.70 9.95 85.00 2013-14 11.20 0.90

19 Warsak 66 3037 26 23.40 19.89 85.00 2013-14 40.30 0.90

47

TESCO

Table 1- 33: List of Overloaded Substations during Period 2013-14 to 2023-24 Overloading Criterion=100%

S.No. Name Rating

Grid #

Total Capacity

Total Capacity

Overloading Criterion

Overloading Criterion Year of

Overloading

Overloading Status Power

Factor KV (MVA) (MW) (MW) (%) (MW)

1 Jamrud 132 3002 26 23.14 23.14 100.00 2013-14 71.50 0.89

2 L/Kotal 132 3005 52 45.76 45.76 100.00 2013-14 56.20 0.88

3 Bara 132 3007 52 46.28 46.28 100.00 2013-14 50.50 0.89

4 Jandola 66 3010 13 10.79 10.79 100.00 2017-18 10.20 0.83

5 Hayatabad 132 3014 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2013-14 50.60 0.90

6 Wana 66 3015 33 29.70 29.70 100.00 2013-14 30.60 0.90

7 Mattani 132 3017 26 21.58 21.58 100.00 2015-16 21.40 0.83

8 Parachinar 132 3018 52 46.28 46.28 100.00 2013-14 65.90 0.89

9 Sadda 66 3019 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2013-14 26.50 0.90

10 Tall 132 3021 39 35.10 35.10 100.00 2013-14 38.10 0.90

11 Tank 66 3024 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2013-14 37.40 0.90

12 Kalaya 66 3027 13 11.70 11.70 100.00 2014-15 11.60 0.90

13 Miran Shah 132 3028 52 46.80 46.80 100.00 2013-14 47.50 0.90

14 Mir Ali 132 3031 39 35.10 35.10 100.00 2019-20 34.80 0.90

15 Ghallani 132 3032 65 58.50 58.50 100.00 2018-19 58.40 0.90

16 Lakkari 66 3033 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2013-14 23.10 0.90

17 Domail 220 3034 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2016-17 22.80 0.90

18 Tangi 132 3036 13 11.70 11.70 100.00 2014-15 11.50 0.90

19 Warsak 66 3037 26 23.40 23.40 100.00 2013-14 40.30 0.90

48

TESCO

Table 1- 34: List of Grids with their Codes & MVA Capacities

P O W E R M A R K E T S U R V E Y

List of Grids With Their Codes And MVA Capacities For TESCO

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| SR. Grid Grid Transformers (MVA) | | SR. Grid Grid Transformers (MVA) |

| No. No. KV Name T1 T2 T3 T4 Total | | No. No. KV Name T1 T2 T3 T4 Total |

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 3001 132 Bannu 26 26 2 3002 132 Jamrud 26 26

3 3004 132 Kohat 26 26 4 3005 132 L/Kotal 26 26 52

5 3006 132 Prova 13 13 6 3007 132 Bara 26 26 52

7 3009 132 Hangu 13 13 8 3010 66 Jandola 13 13

9 3011 66 Bajour 13 13 13 39 10 3014 132 Hayatabad 26 26

11 3015 66 Wana 13 13 7 33 12 3016 66 K/Ghari 13 13

13 3017 132 Mattani 26 26 14 3018 132 Parachinar 26 26 52

15 3019 66 Sadda 13 13 26 16 3020 132 Warsak 13 13

17 3021 132 Tall 26 13 39 18 3023 66 Spar Sang 13 13

19 3024 66 Tank 26 26 20 3027 66 Kalaya 13 13

21 3028 132 Miran Shah 26 13 13 52 22 3029 132 Razmak 13 13

23 3030 132 Gumbat 13 13 24 3031 132 Mir Ali 26 13 39

25 3032 132 Ghallani 26 26 13 65 26 3033 66 Lakkari 13 13 26

27 3034 220 Domail 26 26 28 3036 132 Tangi 13 13

29 3037 66 Warsak 13 13 26

49

TESCO Table 1- 35: Maximum Demand (MW) of Substation

LOAD CENTRE SUMMARY

MAXIMUM DEMAND (MW) OF GRIDSTATIONS DISCO: TESCO --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

|GRID| NAME OF | |_______________________________________________Y____E____A____R______________________________________________|

|NO. | GRIDSTATION |KV | 2013-14 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2023-24 |

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. 3034 Domail 220 20.9 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.0

2. 3001 Bannu 132 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.8

3. 3007 Bara 132 50.5 52.0 53.6 55.2 56.9 58.7 60.4 62.3 64.2 66.1 68.1

4. 3032 Ghallani 132 50.2 51.8 53.4 55.0 56.7 58.4 60.2 62.0 63.9 65.9 67.9

5. 3030 Gumbat 132 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5

6. 3009 Hangu 132 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2

7. 3014 Hayatabad 132 50.6 52.1 53.6 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.2 62.0 63.8 65.7 67.6

8. 3002 Jamrud 132 71.5 74.0 76.7 79.4 82.3 32.0 33.3 34.6 36.1 37.6 39.2

9. 3004 Kohat 132 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5

10. 3005 L/Kotal 132 56.2 58.3 60.4 62.6 64.9 67.3 69.8 72.4 75.1 77.8 80.8

11. 3038 Marble City 132 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.3 16.4 17.6

12. 3017 Mattani 132 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.6 24.8 26.0 27.4 28.9 30.5 32.1

13. 3031 Mir Ali 132 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.8 32.8 33.8 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.1 39.2

14. 3028 Miran Shah 132 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.8 53.3 54.9 56.5 58.1 59.8 61.6 63.4

15. 3012 New Bajour 132 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.5

16. 3003 New Jamrud 132 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.4 55.2 57.2 59.2 61.3 63.5

17. 3018 Parachinar 132 65.9 68.2 70.5 73.0 75.5 78.2 80.9 83.8 86.9 90.0 93.4

18. 3006 Prova 132 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7

19. 3029 Razmak 132 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9

20. 3021 Tall 132 38.1 39.2 40.3 41.5 42.7 44.0 45.2 46.5 47.9 49.3 50.7

21. 3036 Tangi 132 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0

22. 3020 Warsak 132 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5

23. 3011 Bajour 66 32.4 33.8 35.3 36.9 38.5 40.3 42.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 27.1

24. 3010 Jandola 66 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.9

25. 3016 K/Ghari 66 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.8

50

TESCO


: LOAD CENTRE SUMMARY

MAXIMUM DEMAND (MW) OF GRIDSTATIONS

DISCO: TESCO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

|GRID| NAME OF | |_______________________________________________Y____E____A____R______________________________________________|

|NO. | GRIDSTATION |KV | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 |

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

26. 3027 Kalaya 66 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1

27. 3033 Lakkari 66 23.1 23.8 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.1 31.0

28. 3019 Sadda 66 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.3

29. 3023 Spar Sang 66 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0

30. 3024 Tank 66 37.4 38.5 39.6 40.8 41.9 43.1 44.4 45.7 47.0 48.3 49.7

31. 3015 Wana 66 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.4 34.3 35.3 36.4 37.4 38.5 39.7 40.8

32. 3037 Warsak 66 40.3 41.5 42.7 44.0 45.3 46.7 48.0 49.5 50.9 52.4 54.0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total L.C. 771.8 796.8 822.8 849.7 888.9 919.4 949.5 981.6 1015.0 1049.5 1085.8

51

TESCO Table 1- 36: Category-wise Energy(GWh) and Maximum Demand (MW) of Substations

CATEGORY-WISE GRIDSTATION LOAD FOR DISCO

DISCO: TESCO Year:- YEAR :2023-24

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

|SR GRID NAME OF | | | PUBLIC | SMALL | M & L | TUBE WELLS | | TOTAL OF | POWER FACTOR(%) |

|No.NUMBER GRID STATION | DOMESTIC | COMMERCIAL | LIGHTING | INDUSTRIES | INDUSTRIES | PRIVATE | PUBLIC | TRACTION | GRIDSTATION | REACT-POWER(Mvar)|

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. 3011 66kV Bajour GWh 12.33 0.14 0.00 30.64 0.00 29.02 0.00 0.00 72.13 0.77

MW 9.38 0.11 0.00 13.06 0.00 9.27 0.00 0.00 27.05 22.00

2. 3001 132kV Bannu GWh 29.95 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 30.19 0.90

MW 11.40 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 9.76 5.00

3. 3007 132kV Bara GWh 97.95 0.03 0.00 12.75 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 111.07 0.89

MW 74.54 0.02 0.00 5.44 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 68.09 35.00

4. 3034 220kV Domail GWh 115.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 115.23 0.90

MW 32.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 27.96 14.00

5. 3032 132kV Ghallani GWh 225.93 1.88 0.00 1.20 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00 230.44 0.90

MW 78.15 0.72 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.00 67.86 33.00

6. 3030 132kV Gumbat GWh 23.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 23.56 0.90

MW 7.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 6.53 3.00

7. 3009 132kV Hangu GWh 24.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.20 0.90

MW 7.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.18 3.00

8. 3014 132kV Hayatabad GWh 385.97 0.46 0.00 1.61 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 388.25 0.90

MW 78.68 0.10 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 67.61 33.00

9. 3002 132kV Jamrud GWh 85.11 11.45 0.00 1.40 0.00 24.57 0.00 0.00 122.54 0.88

MW 32.39 5.23 0.00 0.60 0.00 7.85 0.00 0.00 39.16 21.00

10. 3010 66kV Jandola GWh 23.99 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.35 0.00 0.00 44.38 0.83

MW 9.78 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 0.00 0.00 13.86 9.00

11. 3016 66kV K/Ghari GWh 23.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.12 0.90

MW 11.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.75 5.00

12. 3027 66kV Kalaya GWh 27.70 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.46 0.00 0.00 28.24 0.90

MW 17.57 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 15.10 7.00

13. 3004 132kV Kohat GWh 26.28 0.07 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 26.59 0.90

MW 15.79 0.04 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 13.53 7.00

14. 3005 132kV L/Kotal GWh 216.43 0.12 0.00 73.26 0.00 15.41 0.00 0.00 305.21 0.84

MW 58.83 0.03 0.00 31.22 0.00 4.93 0.00 0.00 80.75 52.00

15. 3033 66kV Lakkari GWh 75.33 0.04 0.00 0.19 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 77.17 0.90

MW 35.83 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 30.98 15.00

16. 3038 132kV Marble City GWh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.50 0.90

MW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.63 9.00

17. 3017 132kV Mattani GWh 47.60 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 50.22 0.00 0.00 97.89 0.82

MW 21.73 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 16.05 0.00 0.00 32.15 22.00

18. 3031 132kV Mir Ali GWh 98.26 2.13 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00 100.58 0.90

MW 44.87 1.22 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 39.23 19.00

19. 3028 132kV Miran Shah GWh 103.70 0.16 0.00 0.08 0.00 1.32 0.00 0.00 105.26 0.90

MW 73.99 0.12 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 63.38 31.00

20. 3012 0kV New Bajour GWh 18.86 0.00 0.00 25.19 0.00 7.86 0.00 0.00 51.92 0.82

MW 14.35 0.00 0.00 10.74 0.00 2.51 0.00 0.00 23.46 16.00

21. 3003 0kV New Jamrud GWh 167.84 4.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.74 0.00 0.00 200.00 0.89

MW 63.87 2.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.87 0.00 0.00 63.54 33.00

22. 3018 132kV Parachinar GWh 163.59 0.14 0.00 5.46 0.00 43.93 0.00 0.00 213.12 0.88

MW 93.37 0.09 0.00 2.33 0.00 14.04 0.00 0.00 93.35 50.00

23. 3006 132kV Prova GWh 11.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 11.73 0.90

MW 6.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 5.68 3.00

24. 3029 132kV Razmak GWh 25.56 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.57 0.90

MW 11.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.92 5.00

25. 3019 66kV Sadda GWh 47.15 0.05 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 47.41 0.90

MW 41.40 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 35.29 17.00

52

TESCO


CATEGORY-WISE GRIDSTATION LOAD FOR DISCO

DISCO: TESCO Year:- YEAR :2023-24

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

|SR GRID NAME OF | | | PUBLIC | SMALL | M & L | TUBE WELLS | | TOTAL OF | POWER FACTOR(%) |

|No.NUMBER GRID STATION | DOMESTIC | COMMERCIAL | LIGHTING | INDUSTRIES | INDUSTRIES | PRIVATE | PUBLIC | TRACTION | GRIDSTATION | REACT-POWER(Mvar)|

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

26. 3023 66kV Spar Sang GWh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.24 0.00 0.00 7.24 0.75

MW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.32 0.00 0.00 1.97 2.00

27. 3021 132kV Tall GWh 61.64 1.12 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 63.06 0.90

MW 58.64 0.92 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 50.70 25.00

28. 3036 132kV Tangi GWh 45.88 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 46.36 0.90

MW 17.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 14.97 7.00

29. 3024 66kV Tank GWh 128.09 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 128.12 0.90

MW 58.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 49.73 24.00

30. 3015 66kV Wana GWh 62.81 0.18 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 63.17 0.90

MW 47.80 0.14 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 40.81 20.00

31. 3020 132kV Warsak GWh 11.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.26 0.90

MW 6.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.46 3.00

32. 3037 66kV Warsak GWh 211.03 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 211.23 0.90

MW 63.39 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.96 26.00

==============================================================================================================================================================

TOTAL OF DISCO : GWh 2653.13 23.07 0.00 155.63 55.66 238.43 0.00 0.00 3125.92

MW 934.76 9.22 0.00 54.90 17.53 63.08 0.00 0.00 917.58

53

TESCO

Figure 1- 10: Distribution Network Map

54

TESCO

Disclaimer

All data used in this report are provided by TESCO.

Planning Power, NTDCL does not own any error responsibility.

Documents

Executive Summary - NTDC