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Experience from Taiwan apply for Equity
Investment in Vietnam
Investment Department May 2012
Taiwan Training Trip Sharing
Step 1: Economy Analysis
4
1. Economy trend, cycle
GDP yoy
2. Inflation Trend, Cycle
%CPI yoy
Experience from Cathay TW:•When GDP is at bottom, or •Lower Government target => Time for Stock Investment
Inflation is on down trend (comparison with three consecutive mths) Government think that Inflation
is already down
High
Low
5
3. Others investment channel:
Step 1: Economy Analysis
%Government Bond yield
4. Stock Index:
Deposit, bonds, … is at low level
Stock index is at cheap price(refer to latest bottom)
Resistance line
6
Step 2: Sector analysis
Advise from Cathay Taiwan: choose sectors connect to GDP=> Financials, Consumer
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Large Stock
Weight
Others
8 Largest companies dominated the market(Cathay Taiwan advise we should choose some largest companies)
Step 3: Company analysis
8
BVH AAM
Decide Investment Method (as advised, we should choose safety stock for first time investment )
RISKY Stock SAFETY Stock
Things to ConsiderStep 3: Company Analysis
3 Rules for Investment Decision
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BCI DAS
RULE # 1: For downward trend price, BUY when volume increase
Price chart
Volume
Price chart
Volume
Step 3: Company Analysis
10
VE9 PHR
RULE # 2: BUY if Stock is sideway for longtime but suddenly increase both price and volume
3 Rules for Investment Decision
Price chart Price chart
Volume Volume
Step 3: Company Analysis
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SDD KMRPrice chart
Price chart
Volume Volume
RULE # 3: SELL when stock at high price and volume increase:
3 Rules for Investment Decision Step 3: Company Analysis
Financial analysis:
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- Should based on 5 years
- Audit report from big four company
- Financial report should be released on time
- Company plan in the next five years
Step 3: Company Analysis
FA Criteria's: