Experiences with capacity building for risk analysis in Africa and Asia with a focus on domestic

markets and regional trade

Workshop on Risk Analysis Monday, 13 October – Tuesday, 14 October 2014

WTO, CENTRE WILLIAM RAPPARD, Geneva

Delia Grace

Outline

• International organisations and risk

analysis

• Capacity-building for risk analysis at ILRI

• New evidence for safer food in domestic

markets and safer trade in livestock and

livestock products

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CGIAR: CGIAR 15 centers (IRRI, CIAT, IWMI…) ILRI: International Livestock Research Institute

• Staff: 700.

• Budget: $70 million.

• 30+ scientific disciplines.

• 120 senior scientists from 39 countries.

• 56% of internationally recruited

staff are from developing countries.

• 34% of internationally recruited staff

are women.

• Large campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia.

• 70% of research in sub-Saharan Africa.

• 3 flagships on human nutrition

• 1 flagship on prevention and control of Agricultural Associated Diseases • Food safety • Zoonoses • Emerging diseases

aghealth.wordpress.com/ http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org

CGIAR Research Program Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH)

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Risk-based approaches

• Evidence based methodology

– Transparent, facilitates

communication

– Science-based, reproducible,

falsifiable

• Standard for international trade

– “Health and safety aspects of Codex

decisions and recommendations

should be based on risk assessment”

• Differentiate between hazard and

risk

• Allow risk targeting

• Allow identification of critical

control points

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Risk Assessment

Is it Safe?

Is it a big and important

danger?

What should we do about it?

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OIE Import risk assessment

Release assessment

Exposure assessment

Consequence assessment

3.Risk management

2.Risk assessment

1.Hazard identification

Risk communication

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Answer

• The current risk that properly handled carcases, meat and meat products originating from Ethiopian cattle and shoats will lead to the introduction and establishment of pathogens of concern in relevant importers is negligible

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ILRI Approach

• Training on participatory risk analysis – In-depth for graduate fellows

– Over-view for champions and senior officials

• Situational analysis – Over-view, policies, success and failures

• Systematic literature review

• Proof of concept risk assessment – Graduate fellow capacity building and theses

– Peer-reviewed publications

– Briefs, manuals, tools, extension

• National workshops to share findings

• Impact assessment of training and risk assessments

• Regional synthesis workshop

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Challenges to risk assessments

• Huge gaps in information – National reporting inadequate & contradicted by epi surveys

– Epi surveys inadequate: many pathogens never looked for

• Dealing with inadequate data – Alternative methods for collecting information (SS, modelling, PE)

• “Conventional attitude: – if there is any chance no matter how remote then we don’t want it

• Risk-based thinking: – There is no such thing as zero risk

– Presence of disease in exporting country is no grounds of refusal

– Potential presence of a hazard in the exported product is no grounds for refusal

Smallholder farmers have a major role in supplying food markets in poor countries

• 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region

• 500 million smallholders produce 80% of food in poor countries. 43% of the workforce are women

% production by smallholder livestock farms

Beef Chicken (meat)

Small ruminant (meat)

Milk Pork Eggs

East Africa >85 60-90

Bangladesh 65 77 78 65 77

India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71

Thailand 43 37

Vietnam 95 80

Informal markets have a major role in food security and safety

Benefits of wet

markets

Cheap food, Fresh food,

Food from local breeds, Better taste (hard chicken)

Accessible, Small amounts sold (kidogo)

Sellers are trusted, Credit may be provided

(results from PRAs with consumers in Safe Food, Fair Food project)

Wet market milk Supermarket milk

Most common price /litre

56 cents One dollar

HH where infants consume daily

67% 65%

HH which boil milk 99% 79%

Survey in supermarkets and wet markets in Nairobi in 2014

>60% of consumers’ don’t trust govt. label

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More regulation associated with worse practices

Average of

17.25 risk

mitigation

strategies

used

Farmers who

believed UA

was legal used

more

strategies

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Poor total bacteria Unacceptable total

bacteria

Unacceptable

faecal bacteria

Unaccpetable

Staph

Unacceptable

listeria

Any unacceptable

Supermarket

Wet market

Village

Compliance : Formal often worse than informal

• Branding & certification of milk vendors in Kenya & Guwahti, Assam led to improved milk safety.

• It benefited the national economy by $33 million per year in Kenya and $6 million in Assam

• 70% of traders in Assam and 24% in Kenya are currently registered

• 6 milllion consumers in Kenya and 1.5 million in Assam are benefiting from safer milk

Take home messages

Food safety an important & growing problem

Risk analysis gives important and non-

obvious insights into food safety

Most risk and risk management done by

value chain actors in informal sector

Management of risks not currently effective but

more effective models exist

Inappropriate regulation can lead to paradoxical

increase in risk

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