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Expert Forum for producers and users of climate change-related
statistics - UNECE
AFOLU: IPCC guidelines, estimation of
emissions/removals and data requirements
Rome, Italy
3-5 October 2017
Andrej Kranjc, Head of IPCC TFI TSU
Outline
1. General background
2. Evolution of the IPCC Guidelines for
Agriculture and Land-use
3. Selection of Activity data and Emission
factors
4. Estimating Land Areas
5. Adapting data for inventory use
6. 2019 Refinement
1. General background
IPCC Plenary
IPCC Bureau
IPCC Executive Committee
IPCC Secretariat(in Geneva,
Switzerland)
Working
Group I
The Physical
Science Basis
TSU(France)
Working
Group II
Climate Change
Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
TSU(Germany)
Working
Group III
Mitigation
of
Climate Change
TSU(UK)
Task Force
on
National
Greenhouse
Gas
Inventories
(TFI)
TSU(Japan)
Authors, Contributors, Reviewers
Structure of
the IPCC
(2015 -)
• IPCC was established by WMO and UNEP in 1988.
• TFI was established by IPCC at the 14th Session in
1998.
• Objectives of TFI:– to develop and refine an internationally-agreed
methodology and software for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions and removals;
– to encourage the widespread use of this methodology by
countries participating in the IPCC and by signatories of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories (TFI)
2. Evolution of the IPCC Guidelines for
Agriculture and Land-use
Revision/Update by the IPCC
IPCC Inventory Guidelines
1995 IPCC
Guidelines
Revised 1996 IPCC
Guidelines
GPG2000(non-LULUCF)
GPG2003 (LULUCF)
2006 IPCC
Guidelines
Annex I Parties must use
from 2015
Non-Annex I Parties are
encouraged to use GPGs.
＋
New Supplementary Guidance in 2013
Non-Annex I Parties should
use 1996 Guidelines.
(Annex to Decision 17/CP.8)
Actually, 2006 Guidelines are being used
by more and more Non-Annex I Parties.
Evolution of IPCC Guidance on agriculture
and land-use• 1996 IPCC GLs
• Agriculture and Land Use and Change and Forestry (LUCF) separatesectors
• Only the most important activities resulting in GHG emissions/removals
• Implicit assumption about estimating emissions and removals only over lands subject to human intervention
• Only accounted for above-ground biomass and soil C pools
• GPG & GPG-LULUCF
• Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) separatesectors
• Provides good practice and uncertainty management guidance
• Now includes all land use emissions/ removals split into six land-use categories from all pools
• Explicit Use of managed land as a proxy for anthropogenic emissions/removals
• 2006 IPCC Guidelines
• Agriculture and Land Use and Change and Forestry (LUCF) combined into a single sector Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
• Same approach as GPG-LULUCF
• Retained use of managed land
• Inclusion and consolidation of several previously optional categories
• Refinement of methods and improved defaults
Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use
(AFOLU)
AFOLU
3A. Livestock 3B. Land
3C. Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emissions on
Land
3A. Livestock emissions
3A. Livestock
3.A.1Enteric Fermentation
CH4
3.A.2 Manure Management
N2O
CH4
Livestock population and feed
characterization • It could be necessary to use different methodological tiers for different source categories
for the same livestock types.
• It is a good practice to identify the appropriate method for estimating emissions for each
source category, and then base the livestock information (characterisation) on the most
detailed requirements identified for each livestock species.
• Used for Tier 1 methods
• Livestock species and categories
• Annual population
• Dairy cows and milk production
Basic Characterization
• Used for Tier 2/3 methods
• Definitions for livestock subcategories
• Livestock population by subcategory
• Feed intake estimates
Enhanced Characterization
Characterization
may undergo
iteration based
on the needs
assessed during
the emissions
estimation
process.
3B. LAND
The use of managed land as a proxy in estimating
land-based emissions and removals (E/R)
• Factors governing E/R can be both natural and anthropogenic and can
be difficult to distinguish between causal factors
• Inventory methods have to be operational, practical and globally
applicable while being scientifically sound
• IPCC Guidelines have taken the approach of defining anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks as all
those occurring on ‘managed land’
• ‘Managed land is land where human interventions and practices have
been applied to perform production, ecological or social functions’
• Managed land has to be nationally defined and classified transparently
and consistently over time
• GHG emissions/removals need not be reported for unmanaged land
IPCC Land ClassificationForest land
• All woody vegetation according to national definitions
Cropland
• Crops including rice and agro-forestry not included above
Grassland
• All rangelands and pastures not included above
Settlements
Wetlands
• Wetlands not included above (peat use and flooded lands)
Other Lands
• Includes bare soil, rock, ice and lands not included above
Direct Flux Measurements
• Direct measurements of carbon fluxes are difficult to extrapolate to changes in biomass as
– Net uptake/release of C is a small difference of large numbers
– Flux is very variable, spatially and temporally
• More recently, use of remote sensing measurements of carbon stock, has improved over time
– Use of remote sensing is being addressed by the 2019 Refinement
Estimating Carbon Stock Changes
Both approaches assume the emission = total stock changes
Carbon
Stock at
time 1
Carbon
Stock at
time 2
Difference between carbon stocks
gives emission /removal
Land Use
type
Emission /removal from sum
losses and gains
Cu
pta
ke
thro
ug
hG
ro
wth
HarvestDisturbances
1 2
3C. Aggregate Sources and Non-CO2 Emissions
on Land
Emissions from Biomass Burning
Liming
Urea Application
Direct /Indirect
N2O Emissions from Managed
Soils
Indirect N2O Emissions from
Manure Management
Rice Cultivations
3. Selection of Activity data and
Emission factors
The selection and collection of activity data for AFOLU
• Data collection is an integral part of
developing and updating a GHG inventory.
• Formalised data collection activities should be
established, adapted to countries’ national
circumstances, and reviewed periodically as a
part of implementing good practices.
Activity Data Sources
National and International Literature
The IPCC Guidelines recommend collecting data from bodies such as
National Statistical Agencies, and national regulatory authorities
responsible for permitting of industrial and other processes subject to
pollution emission legislation.
Surveys & Census information
Survey and census information provide the best agricultural, production
and energy statistics that can be used for greenhouse gas inventories.
Generally, these data are compiled by national statistical agencies
(NSAs) or relevant government ministries, for national policy purposes
or to comply with international demand for data, or other activities that
are beyond the direct control of the inventory compiler.
Use of IPCC Default EF
• The 2006 IPCC Guidelines, adopts Tier 1
methods for most categories, this enables the
use of readily available national or international
statistics, in combination with provided default
emission factors and additional parameters
provided, thus making it feasible to prepare
estimates for most countries.
• However, use of higher tiers requires country
specific emission factors.
Table 2.2 , Vol 1, 2006 GL
Potential sources of literature data
Literature Type Where to find it Comments
IPCC Guidelines IPCC website Provide agreed default factors for Tier 1 methods but may not be
representative of national circumstances.
IPCC Emission Factor Database
(EFDB)
IPCC website Described in more detail below. May not be representative of
processes in your country or appropriate for key category estimates.
EMEP/EEA
Emission Inventory Guidebook
(Formerly EMEP/CORINAIR)
EEA (European Environment Agency
website)
Useful defaults or for cross-checking. May not be representative of
processes in your country or appropriate for key category estimates.
International Emission Factor
Databases: USEPA
USEPA website Useful defaults or for cross-checking. May not be representative of
processes in your country or appropriate for key category estimates.
Country-specific data from
international or national peer reviewed
journals
National reference libraries,
environmental press, environmental
news journals
Reliable if representative. Can take time to be published.
National testing facilities (e.g., road
traffic testing facilities)
National laboratories Reliable. Need to make sure the factors are representative and that
standard methods are used.
IPCC EFDB
• Library of emission factors/parameters and other
relevant data with background documentation
– Default values from IPCC Guidelines
– Data from peer-reviewed scientific papers
– Data from other publications (government reports, industry
studies etc.)
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/
• Communication platform to share data/information on
emission factors and other parameters that can be
used to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions/removals
4. Estimating Land Areas
Approaches for land representation
Three general methods for collecting activity data
• Approach 1: Data that is not spatially explicit and does not
track land use through time
• Approach 2: Data that provides land use change through time
but is not spatially explicit
• Approach 3: Data that provides land use change through time
and is spatially explicit
• Mixed approaches can be used for different regions of the
country
26
Approach 1
Approach 2
For
est L
and
(unm
anag
ed)
For
est L
and
(man
aged
,
rain
fore
st)
For
est L
and
(man
aged
,
peat
bog
)
For
est l
and
(Man
grov
e)
For
est L
and
(man
aged
,
plan
tatio
n)
Gra
ssla
nd
Cro
plan
d
Wet
land
s
Set
tlem
ents
Oth
er L
and
Fin
al A
rea
Forest Land (unmanaged) 12 12
Forest Land (managed, rain forest) 43 43
Forest Land (managed, peat bog) 6 6
Forest land (Mangrove) 61 61
Forest Land (managed, plantation) 10 1 17 1 29
Grassland 29 29
Cropland 1 1 1 3
Wetlands 5 5
Settlements 1 1 2 4
Other Land 2 2
Initial area 12 55 8 61 18 29 2 5 2 2
Net change 0 -12 -2 0 11 0 1 0 2 0
Initial Land Areas
Fin
al L
and
Are
as
Approach 3
G
FC
SS
G
F
F
G
C
S
Land use data requirements - Examples
Emission Factors and other
Parameters• Conversion factors such as:
Growth rates
Carbon content of wood
Conversion of above ground
biomass to total biomass
• Country-specific data tend not to
change annually
• Guidelines have default values
for different regions and
ecosystems
Activity Data• Data about the scale of activity
Areas of forests
Areas land converted to other land use
Areas undergoing types of management
Amounts of harvested
• Either from ground surveys, forest inventories or satellite data
• These may change annually
Changes in soil C stocks
• ΔCSoils = ΔCMineral − LOrganic + ΔCInorganic∆Csoils= ΔCMineral − LOrganic + ΔCInorganic
Where:
ΔCSoils = annual change in carbon stocks in soils, t C yr-1
ΔCMineral= annual change in organic carbon stocks in mineral soils, t C yr-1
LOrganic = annual loss of carbon from drained organic soils, t C yr-1
ΔCInorganic = annual change in inorganic carbon stocks from soils, t C yr-1
(assumed to be 0 unless using a Tier 3 approach)
Equation 2.24, page 2.29, Vol 4, 2006GL
5. Adapting data for inventory use
Adapting data for inventory use
Aim: to ensure that the level of detail and coverage of the data, including sectors/process/abatement, match the location, land type, compound and years included
• Greenhouse gas inventories require consistent estimates across time series and between categories.
• Adapting data includes filling gaps if data are missing for one or more years or the data do not represent the year or national coverage required.
(Techniques to address gaps in data sets explained in Volume of the IPCC Guidelines, Chapter 5“Time Series Consistency”.)
Adapting data for inventory use - examples of
approaches
Presented with several potential datasets for the
same estimates?
• Combination can be achieved by pooling the raw data and
re-estimating the mean and 95% confidence limit.
• Also possible to combine measurements of a single quantity
made using different methods that produce results with
different underlying probability distributions.
• Method could be more complex; sufficient to use expert
judgment to average the results or identify more reliable data
set.
Combining data sets numerically:
Adapting data for inventory use
Data that are not homogenous?
• inventory estimate should be stratified (subdivided) so that
each stratum is homogeneous and the national total for the
source category will then be the sum of the strata.
Adapting data for inventory use
Empirical datasets
contain outliers?• rule: lying more than 3x standard
deviation
• but exercise caution: anomalous
data may indicate some other set of
circumstances that may need to be
separately estimated (e.g. plant in
start-up conditions; drainage
leading to sudden release of CH4 in
rice field)
Multi-year averaging?• countries should report
annual inventory estimates
• avoid using multi-year averaging of data:– over- or under-estimates of
emissions over time
– increased uncertainty
– reduced transparency, comparability, or time-series consistency of estimates
6. 2019 Refinement
2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (1)
IPCC decided at its 44th session in Bangkok on
17-20 October 2016 to prepare a Methodology
Report to refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines with
the following format and title:
The format should be one single Methodology
Report comprising an Overview Chapter and five
volumes following the format of the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
(2006 IPCC Guidelines).
The title of the Methodology Report should be “2019
Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”.
2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (2)
Will be completed in May 2019.
Aim:
o to provide an updated and sound scientific basis for supporting the
preparation and continuous improvement of national GHG
inventories;
o not to revise the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, but update, supplement
and/or elaborate the 2006 IPCC Guidelines where gaps or out-of-
date science have been identified.
Format and Structure:
o Same as the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (= Overview Chapter and 5
Volumes) so as to make it easier for inventory compilers to use the
2019 Refinement in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
The 2019 Refinement will not replace the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
It should be used in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (3)
To be developed by approximately 190 authors from all over
the world.
Four Lead Author Meetings and three review stages are
planned:
LAM1: 7-14 June 2017
LAM2: 25-28 September 2017
LAM3: 10-13 April 2018
LAM4: week of 22-27 October 2018
Expert Review of FOD: 4 Dec 2017 – 11 Feb 2018
Government/Expert Review of SOD: 2 Jul – 9 Sep 2018
Government Review of Final Draft: 14 Jan – 10 Mar 2019
