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Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and

Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

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Page 1: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Expert Models for Decision Makers TM

G L O B A L

Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products

Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and StatisticsISES 2014, Cincinnati

Page 2: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrances

3,000 + on the market Present in:

– Personal care products– Cosmetics– Air care– Household products

Previous models:– Volume based– Worst case concentrations and product

use (Cadby et. al 2002, SCCS 2012)

Page 3: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrance Exposure

• High-tier aggregate exposure model

Exposure Model

• Based on real use levels by industry• Representative of use levels on the

market

Fragrance Data

Page 4: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Exposure Model

Over 36,000 consumers, EU and US Seven days of cosmetics and PCP use

and co-use Site of application recorded Amounts per application Body weights, heights and skin surface

areas Dermal and systemic exposure In a cloud-based software platform

Page 5: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

2-PHENYLETHANOL (PEA) EXPOSURE

Page 6: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Product Exposure

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Approximate percentage contribution of individual products to the 95th percentile aggregate exposure (mg/kg bw/day).

Page 7: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

SCCS Comparison

PEA data:– Upper point estimates for concentrations– Dermal penetration 100%

SCCS approach:

Page 8: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Systemic PEA Exposure – Consumers Only

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Box and whisker plot of the chronic systemic PEA exposure by product for consumers of these products only.

Page 9: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

FRAGRANCE CONCENTRATIONS

Page 10: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrance Concentration

Page 11: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrance Concentration

Fragrance Manufacturers

Page 12: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrance Concentration

Consumer Product Companies

Page 13: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Fragrance Concentration

Page 14: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics
Page 15: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Acknowledgements

RIFM Exposure Task Force:– Anne Marie Api (RIFM)– Bob Safford (B-Safe Toxicology Consulting)– Catherine Clapp (Unilever)– Sarah Tozer (P&G)– Steve Robison (P&G)– Graham Ellis (Givaudan)

Creme Global team:– Cronan McNamara (CEO)– Damien Comiskey (Project Manager)– EJ Daly (Software)– Roger Thomas (Software)– Viorica Botea (Software)

Page 16: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Publication

“Use of an aggregate exposure model to estimate consumer exposure to fragrance ingredients in personal care and cosmetic products”- Safford et. Al- Submitted to Regulatory Toxicology

and Pharmacology in August

Page 17: Expert Models for Decision Makers TM G L O B A L Aggregate Exposure to Fragrances in Consumer Products Cian O’ Mahony, Head of Expert Modelling and Statistics

Thank you

Expert Models for Decision Makers TM

G L O B A L

Name - RoleDate