Procedure:

1. Put number of weeks in column A & demand in Column B

2. Compute forecast using formulas when

@.1=(C2)+(0.1)*(B2-C2)

@.2=(D2)+(0.2)*(B2-D2)

@.3=(E2)+(0.3)*(B2-E2)

@.4=(F2)+(0.4)*(B2-F2)

@.5=(G2)+(0.5)*(B2-G2)

@.6=(H2)+(0.6)*(B2-H2)

3. Compute At-Ft for @.1-.6. & take sum of these.

@.1=ABS(B3-C3)

@.2=ABS(B3-D3)

@.3=ABS(B3-E3)

@.4=ABS(B3-F3)

@.5=ABS(B3-G3)

@.6=ABS(B3-H3)

4. Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation MAD.

Divide At-Ft/number of week

5. We draw scatter plot between demand & forecast for @ .1 to .6

Comments:

Graph 2,3,4 have better results as lines are close to each other.it shows that we get better results when we use value of @ .2,.3,.4 .