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Export Performance and Proposed Export TargetsCONSULTATION FOR PEDP 2014-2016
2013 EXPORTS
2013 2012 TARGET0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
53.98 52.10
68.48
21.6018.09
20.74
SERVICESGOODS
US
$ b
illion,
FO
B
75.670.2
89.2
Exports in 2013 expanded 7.7% relative to 2012 level but fell short of target.
ACTUAL VS. TARGET EXPORTS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Products (target) Services (target)Products (actual) Services (actual)
US
$ m
illion
COMPARATIVE EXPORTSPhilippine exports compared to its neighbors
PHL VNM INA THA MALExports, 2012, US$ billion 70 132 201 280 265 Goods 52 121 190 230 227
Services 18 11 23 50 38CAGR, 2008-12 Total 5.9 23.2 11.9 6.0 5.0 Goods 2.0 24.3 11.5 9.3 4.5 Services 21.6 12.6 (18.9) 14.9 19.1
WHAT’S WRONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE
COMPOSITION OF PH EXPORTS, 2006 VS. 2013
PROCESSED FOOD AND BEVERAGES
GARMENTS
CHEMICALS
OTHER MINERAL PRODUCTS
ELECTRONIC EQPT. & PARTS
WOOD MANUFACTURES
ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING
MACHINERY & TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT
OTHER MANUFACTURES
COMPONENTS/DEVICES (SEMICONDUCTORS)
TOP 10 PRODUCTS
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
1.2
5.6
1.6
1.6
3.2
1.4
12.1
3.6
4.6
47.0
82.8
2.7
2.9
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.7
6.7
8.1
9.3
29.6
76.8
2013 2006
Percent of Total
DESTINATION OF PH EXPORTS, 2006 VS. 2013
ASEAN
NETHERLANDS
HONG KONG SAR
CHINA, PEOPLE'S REP. OF
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
JAPAN
TOP 10 MARKETS
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
17.2
10.1
7.8
9.8
18.3
16.7
86.6
15.9
3.1
8.2
12.2
14.5
21.2
83.3
20132006
Percent of Total
WHAT’S WRONG WITH PH EXPORTS
Are we exporting products whose trade in world market is increasing?
Are we outperforming other countries exporting the same product?
TRADE COMPETITIVENESSDYNAMIC
Champions or winners in growth market◦ Trade in product is growing faster than world
trade and the country’s share in world market is increasing
Underachievers or losers in growth market◦ Trade in product is growing faster than world
trade and the country’s share in world market is shrinking
TRADE COMPETITIVENESSDYNAMIC
Achievers in adversity◦ Trade in product is declining or less than
growth in world trade and the country’s share in world market is increasing
Losers in declining market◦ Trade in product is declining or less than
growth in world trade and the country’s share in world market is shrinking
TRADE COMPETITIVENESS MAPDYNAMIC
Increase in world market share since 2006(PH export growth – world’s export growth)
Annu
al gro
wth
of
worl
d e
xport
s si
nce
2006
6.9
0
ChampionsUnderachievers
Achievers in adversity
Losers in declining markets
PHILIPPINE TRADE COMPETITIVENESS MAP, 2013DYNAMIC
-50 0 50 100 150 200
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Percent Increase in World Market Share since 2006
An
nu
al g
row
th o
f w
orl
d e
xp
ort
s si
nce
20
06
PHILIPPINE TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, 2013DYNAMIC
6.9
0
ChampionsUnderachievers
Achievers in adversity
Losers in declining markets
18.8%4.8%
12.3% 64.1%
CHAMPIONSProduct trade is growing faster than world trade and PH’s share in world market is increasing
Copra meal/cakeGoldMangoesMisc. manufactured articles, n.e.s.Other manufacturesOther mineral productsOther sugar and productsProcessed food and beveragesRiceTobacco unmanufactured
UNDERACHIEVERSProduct trade is growing faster than world trade and PH’s share in world market is shrinking
Chromium oreCoconut oilCoffee raw, not roastedDessicated coconutFootwearNatural rubberPetroleum productsPineapple concentratesTravel goods and handbags
ACHIEVERS IN DIVERSITY (SELECTED)Product trade is declining or growing slower than world trade and PH’s share in world market is increasing
Abaca fiber Automotive electronics Baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goods Bananas Basketworks, wickerwork & other articles of plaiting material Canned pineapple Centrifugal and refined sugar Chemicals Fish, fresh or preserved Other fruits and vegetables Logs Molasses Wood manufactures
LOSERS IN DECLINING MARKET
Product trade is declining or growing slower than world trade and PH’s share in world market s is shrinking
Copper metalElectronic data processingFurniture and fixturesGarmentsIron and steelNickelNon-metallic mineral manufacturesTextile yarns/fabricsVeneer sheets/corestocks
WHAT’S WRONG WITH PH EXPORTS
Is world trade in our big ticket exports expanding fast?
TRADE COMPETITIVENESSSTRUCTURAL
Stars◦ Trade in product is growing faster than world
trade and country’s share in world market is significant
Emerging◦ Trade in product is growing faster than world
trade and country’s share in world market is still small or insignificant
TRADE COMPETITIVENESSSTRUCTURAL
Traditional◦ Trade in product is declining or less than
growth in world trade and country’s share in world market is significant
Snail ◦ Trade in product is declining or less than
growth in world trade and the country’s share in world market is small or insignificant
TRADE COMPETITIVENESS MAPDYNAMIC
Share in World Market
Annu
al gro
wth
of
worl
d e
xport
s si
nce
2006
6.9
0
Stars
TraditionalSnail0.4
Emerging
PHILIPPINE TRADE COMPETITIVENESS MAP, 2013STRUCTURAL
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Share in World Market, %, 2013
An
nu
al g
row
th in
worl
d e
xp
ort
s si
nce
2
00
6
PHILIPPINE TRADE COMPETITIVENESS, 2013STRUCTURAL
6.9
0
STARSEMERGINGs
TRADITIONALSNAIL
8.5%15.1%
17.7% 58.7%
STARSProduct trade is growing faster than world trade and PH’s world market share is significant
Chromium oreCoconut oilCopra meal/cakeDessicated coconutMangoesOther mineral productsPineapple ConcentratesTobacco unmanufactured
EMERGINGProduct trade is growing faster than world trade and PH’s world market share is small or insignificant
Coffee raw, not roastedFootwearGoldMisc. manufactured articles, n.e.s.Natural rubberOther manufacturesOther sugar and productsPetroleum productsRiceTravel goods and handbags
TRADITIONAL (SELECTED)Product trade is declining or growing slower than world trade and PH’s world market share is significant
Abaca fiber Automotive electronics Bananas Basketworks, wickerwork & other articles of plaiting material Canned pineapple Centrifugal and refined sugar Copper metal Electronic Data Processing Electronic equipment and parts Fish, fresh or preserved Garments Molasses Wood manufactures
SNAILS (SELECTED)
Product trade is declining or growing slower than world trade and PH’s world market share is small or insignificant
Baby carriages, toys, games and sporting goodsChemicalsConsumer electronicControl and instrumentationCopraFurniture and fixturesIron and steelMachinery and transport equipmentNickelTextile yarns/fabricsVeneer sheets/corestocks
BOTTOM LINE
76% of exports in slow and declining markets
Nearly 50% in declining markets
Very few stars (products with significant share in growing world market)
Most big ticket exports in slow and declining markets
CHANGES IN EXPORTSEXPORT GROWTH OR STAGNATION
Increase old products in old marketsIntroduce new products in new marketsIntroduce new products in old marketsIntroduce old products in new marketsDiversify products in old markets
Reduce old products in old marketsStop exporting products in old markets
DECOMPOSITION OF PH EXPORT GROWTH EXPLAINING PH EXPORT PERFORMANCE
Change in PH exports (2008-12) due to US$ billion
Increase in existing products in established markets
7.4
Introduction of new products in new markets -
Introduction of new products in established markets
0.3
Introduction of existing products in new markets -
Product diversification in established markets -
Decrease in existing products in established markets
-4.7
Extinction of exports of products in established markets
-0.03
TOTAL CHANGE 3.0
COMPARATIVE DECOMPOSITION OF EXPORT GROWTH
Change in exports (2008-12) due to PHL MAL THA VNM
Increase in existing prod. in established markets
7.4 33.4 58.6 42.5
Intro of new products in new markets - - - -
Intro of new products in established markets
0.3 0.1 0.6 3.2
Intro of existing products in new markets - 0.05 - 0.03
Product diversification in established markets
- 3.1 - 17.7
Decrease in existing products in est. markets
-4.7 -5.7 -4.7 -3.9
Extinction of exports in established markets
-0.03 -3 -0.5 -1.4
TOTAL CHANGE 3.0 28.0 54.0 58.0
In US$ BILLION
HOW DO WE GET THERE
EXPORT TARGETS
Correcting Export DataFOB US$ million
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recorded 38,436
51,498
48,305
52,100
53,978
Less: Special transactions*
889 835 910 550 282
Corrected exports 37,547
50,663
47,395
51,549
53,969
Growth rate (y-o-y) based on recorded
-21.7 34.0 -6.2 7.9 3.6
Growth rate (y-o-y) based on corrected
-22.1 34.9 -6.5 8.8 4.2*Samples, replacement/returned, temporary imports/exports, etc.
Annual Growth of Exports, 2006-13Selected Products
CAGR
Bananas 12.3
Basketworks, wickerwork & other articles of plaiting matl
-0.7
Canned Pineapple 7.3
Chemicals 18.5
Coconut oil 7.3
Fish, fresh or preserved 11.6
Iron and steel -6.0
Mangoes 12.6
Molasses 10.3
Natural rubber 6.8
Other fruits and vegetables 9.3
Pineapple concentrates 6.6
Processed food and beverages 14.0
Export TargetsDBCC
2013* 2014 2015 2016
In US$ billion
GOODS 54.0 57.2 61.8 68.0
SERVICES 21.6 24.8 28.8 33.4
TOTAL 75.6 82.0 90.6 101.3
Growth rate (y-o-y)
GOODS 6 8 10
SERVICES 15 16 16
TOTAL 8 10 12
SCENARIOS and TARGETSin percent
2014 2015 2016
Business as Usual (BAU) 6.0 – 6.6 7.2 – 8.1 8.4 – 9.6
S1: Boost the growth of increasing exports (1% above trend)
6.0 – 6.8 7.2 – 8.3 8.5 – 9.8
S2: Arrest the decline of decreasing exports
8.1 – 9.0 8.9 – 9.9 9.7 – 10.9
S3: Moderate the decline of decreasing exports (by 50%)
7.0 – 7.9 8.0 – 9.0 9.0 – 10.2
S4: Boost the growth of increasing exports and arrest the decline of decreasing exports
8.2 – 9.1 9.0 – 10.0 9.8 – 11.1
BAUIN PERCENT; FOB US$ MILLION
CAGR 2014 2015 2016
Bananas 11.7 – 12.9 1,019 1,138 1,271
Basketworks, wickerwork
-0.7 50 49 49
Canned Pineapple 6.9 – 7.7 188 201 215
Chemicals 17.6 – 19.4 2,902 3,412 4,011
Coconut oil 7.0 – 7.7 1,017 1,088 1,164
Fish, fresh or preserved
11.1 – 12.2 620 688 764
Iron and steel -5.7 - -6.3 147 139 131
Mangoes 12.0 – 13.2 78 87 98
Molasses 9.8 – 10.8 26 28 31
Natural rubber 6.5 – 7.2 79 84 89
Other fruits and vegetables
8.9 – 9.8 236 257 280
Pineapple concentrates
6.2 – 6.9 98 104 111
Proc. food & beverages
13.3 – 14.7 1,653 1,873 2,122
CAGR 2014 2015 2016
Bananas 11.8 – 13.0 1,020 1,140 1,275
Basketworks, wickerwork
-0.7 50 49 49
Canned Pineapple 7.0 – 7.7 188 202 216
Chemicals 17.6 – 19.6 2,907 3,422 4,028
Coconut oil 7.0 – 7.8 1,018 1,089 1,166
Fish, fresh or preserved
11.2 – 12.3 621 690 767
Iron and steel -6.0 147 138 130
Mangoes 12.1 – 13.4 78 88 98
Molasses 9.9 – 10.9 26 28 31
Natural rubber 6.5 – 7.2 79 84 89
Other fruits and vegetables
9.0 – 9.9 236 257 280
Pineapple concentrates
6.3 – 7.0 98 104 111
Proc. food & beverages
13.4 – 14.8 1,655 1,877 2,130
S1 : BOOST GROWTHIN PERCENT; FOB US$ MILLION
CAGR 2014 2015 2016
Bananas 11.7 – 12.9 1,019 1,138 1,271
Basketworks, wickerwork
0.0 50 50 50
Canned Pineapple 6.9 – 7.7 188 201 215
Chemicals 17.6 – 19.4 2,902 3,412 4,011
Coconut oil 7.0 – 7.7 1,017 1,088 1,164
Fish, fresh or preserved
11.1 – 12.2 620 688 764
Iron and steel 0.0 156 156 156
Mangoes 12.0 – 13.2 78 87 98
Molasses 9.8 – 10.8 26 28 31
Natural rubber 6.5 – 7.2 79 84 89
Other fruits and vegetables
8.9 – 9.8 236 257 280
Pineapple concentrates
6.2 – 6.9 98 104 111
Proc. food & beverages
13.3 – 14.7 1,653 1,873 2,122
S2 : ARREST DECLINEIN PERCENT; FOB US$ MILLION
CAGR 2014 2015 2016
Bananas 11.7 – 12.9 1,019 1,138 1,271
Basketworks, wickerwork
-0.4 50 50 50
Canned Pineapple 6.9 – 7.7 188 201 215
Chemicals 17.6 – 19.4 2,902 3,412 4,011
Coconut oil 7.0 – 7.7 1,017 1,088 1,164
Fish, fresh or preserved
11.1 – 12.2 620 688 764
Iron and steel -3.0 152 147 143
Mangoes 12.0 – 13.2 78 87 98
Molasses 9.8 – 10.8 26 28 31
Natural rubber 6.5 – 7.2 79 84 89
Other fruits and vegetables
8.9 – 9.8 236 257 280
Pineapple concentrates
6.2 – 6.9 98 104 111
Proc. food & beverages
13.3 – 14.7 1,653 1,873 2,122
S3: MODERATE THE DECLINEIN PERCENT; FOB US$ MILLION
CAGR 2014 2015 2016
Bananas 11.8 – 13.0 1,020 1,140 1,275
Basketworks, wickerwork
0.0 50 50 50
Canned Pineapple 7.0 – 7.7 188 202 216
Chemicals 17.7 – 19.6 2,907 3,422 4,029
Coconut oil 7.0 – 7.8 1.018 1,089 1,166
Fish, fresh or preserved
11.2 – 12.3 3.053 3,319 3,608
Iron and steel 0.0 156 156 156
Mangoes 12.1 – 13.4 78 88 98
Molasses 9.9 – 10.9 26 28 31
Natural rubber 6.5 – 7.2 79 84 89
Other fruits and vegetables
9.0 – 9.9 236 257 280
Pineapple concentrates
6.3 – 7.0 98 105 111
Proc. food & beverages
13.4 – 14.8 1,655 1,877 2,130
S4 : BOOST GROWTH & ARREST DECLINE IN PERCENT; FOB US$ MILLION
