1

7580859095

100105110115120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Asian Export Performance

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EUJapan*

China

ASEAN5

ME

TH ex.GoldTW

ID ex.Oil & Gas

SG

MY

CN

KR

* ex. Aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods

US

Feb 2018 = 19.8 Bn USDEx. Gold = 19.5 Bn USD

Jan 2018 = 19.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 19.4 Bn USD

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

%YoYShare 2017P 2017P

2017P 2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb%MoM

sa

Agriculture 7.6 20.0 19.8 20.2 28.4 13.6 12.0 -1.3 -1.0Fishery 0.9 4.8 6.5 3.3 11.5 -4.1 17.9 -1.4 -3.4Manufacturing 87.5 10.3 9.1 11.3 9.6 13.1 19.4 14.3 0.4

Agro-manufacturing Products 12.3 12.3 9.7 14.8 13.9 15.7 22.7 3.4 -6.9Electronics 15.0 14.2 13.4 14.8 11.3 18.4 17.8 6.3 -3.1Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.8 5.7 3.1 8.5 14.2 8.0 2.4Automotive 15.0 6.3 2.5 10.0 2.6 18.1 18.9 27.0 3.1Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.3 7.8 6.8 13.2 0.9 16.7 14.5 2.8Petroleum Related 11.5 19.0 19.6 18.5 19.3 17.7 28.8 26.8 -1.9

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 9.7 7.3 12.0 12.5 11.6 16.7 7.7 -2.4Ex. Gold - 10.8 9.5 12.0 11.2 12.8 18.1 10.0 -1.5Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - 9.8 8.3 11.2 10.2 12.2 16.6 8.0 -1.4

Export Value

2

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Feb 2018 = 17.5 Bn USDEx. Gold = 16.7 Bn USD

Jan 2018 = 18.6 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.0 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2017P 2017P

2017P 2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb%MoM

sa

Consumer 10.2 7.3 4.3 10.2 7.6 12.9 38.6 18.4 0.4

Raw material&Intermediate 53.5 16.9 18.5 15.3 13.2 17.4 29.9 18.9 0.4

o/w Fuel 13.5 31.1 34.1 28.5 23.1 33.5 43.3 19.8 -10.6o/w Raw mat&Interm ex.

Fuel 40.0 12.7 14.2 11.3 10.4 12.2 25.7 18.6 4.3

Capital 25.2 8.6 10.0 7.3 8.6 6.0 24.1 0.1 5.5

Others 11.0 28.0 21.9 33.0 46.8 23.3 -10.6 50.1 13.7

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 14.4 15.0 13.8 13.0 14.6 22.5 21.8 1.5

Ex. Gold - 11.9 12.6 11.4 9.5 13.2 28.6 20.0 0.3

Ex. Gold&Fuel - 9.0 9.4 8.6 7.5 9.8 26.0 20.0 2.4

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

Import Value

3

Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017

20172017 2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP

No. of tourists (’000) 35,381 17,324 18,058 8,777 9,280 3,545 3,567

%YoY 8.8 4.9 12.8 6.4 19.5 10.9 19.3

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - 1.3 2.1 0.6 2.7

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nationality

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Total China (share 28%)Malaysia (share 10%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%)Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%)

4

Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = EstimatedSources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

%YoY 20172017 2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoM sa

Non-durable index 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0

Semi-durable index 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.6 5.1 4.3 2.0

Durable index 7.9 6.8 8.9 4.7 12.6 9.8 4.0 -0.2Service index 6.9 5.5 8.3 5.3 11.4 9.8 8.6E -0.1E

(less) Net tourist spending 13.5 10.7 16.3 9.2 23.7 5.2 15.2 1.0

PCI 2.5 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.7 5.8 2.5 -0.1

* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

708090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Service Index sa, 3mmaNon-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index

90

100

110

120

130

140

859095

100105110115120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

5

Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT

25303540455055

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 50)

Agriculture = 40.2 Non-Agriculture = 38.9

Feb 18

Average 5 years Agriculture =36.9

Average 5 years Non-Agriculture =38.0

IndexJan 2014 = 100

P = Preliminary Data

Farm Income

(%YoY) 20172017 2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb

Nominal farm incomeP 3.0 14.9 -7.0 -2.5 -7.4 -3.4 -7.4

Agricultural productionP 5.9 10.1 2.9 11.9 -1.5 13.0 7.1

Agricultural price -2.8 4.4 -9.6 -12.9 -6.0 -14.6 -13.6

Real Income

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Farm Income saFarm Income sa, 3mmaAverage Non-Farm Income sa, 3mmaTransfer of salary through Financial Institutions (Baht/person)*

Note : * Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT’s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer.** Jan-Feb 2018 figures were estimated by the BOT

6

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

65

80

95

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data

Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

(%YoY)Share2011 2017

2017 2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoMsa

Food & Beverages 20.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 5.7 4.6 3.9 -1.8 -1.4Automotive 16.9 3.6 -3.3 10.8 13.9 7.7 9.9 13.9 1.7- Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 -3.1 8.8 -1.2 9.1 1.6

- Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1 -7.8 10.8 15.3 6.6 13.4 17.0 2.4

- Engine 6.3 7.0 -3.5 18.8 27.9 10.7 15.6 15.5 -0.3Rubbers & Plastics 10.0 7.1 0.8 13.8 11.2 16.3 2.8 0.7 -1.6Chemicals 8.2 2.4 -0.8 5.7 2.0 9.5 8.8 6.0 -2.4IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 5.6 -0.4 4.7 2.0 -1.0Textiles & Apparels 5.5 -5.1 -2.9 -7.4 -5.4 -9.2 -1.5 -2.4 0.3Cement & Construction 4.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -2.8 -0.6 1.4 0.2 -0.7

Electrical Appliances 4.1 -6.9 -4.6 -9.7 -15.6 -3.0 -1.4 3.9 6.2HDD 3.2 14.0 14.2 13.9 9.0 18.7 4.2 17.4 15.1Petroleum 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.1 5.3 6.9 9.2 33.9 5.5

Others 16.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 -2.8 1.5 1.2 2.0

MPI 100.0 2.5 0.5 4.7 5.0 4.4 4.7 4.7 0.6MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

100.0 - 0.6 3.6 3.2 -0.1 -1.4 0.6 0.6

Capacity Utilization (SA)

- 67.1 66.2 68.1 68.5 67.7 67.8 68.2 -

70

85

100

115

Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%

7

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.

Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-1

7

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct-1

7

Nov-

17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18Business Credits (SA) EquityDebt 3MMA

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

% YoY 20172017 2018

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP

%MoMsa

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -6.2 -5.5 -7.0 -5.8 -8.1 -5.5 -5.5E -0.1E

Construction Materials Index -0.9 -1.8 0.0 2.2 -2.3 -3.4 -1.5 -0.9

Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.2 2.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 12.8 6.8 -0.5

Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 5.2E 3.6E

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 5.7 2.8 9.0 6.5 11.8 5.0 4.2 0.7

PII 1.1 0.5 1.7 1.1 2.2 2.5 3.1 0.9

Capacity Utilization (SA) - - - 68.5 67.7 67.8 68.2 -

Private Investment Indicators

8

Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office

Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure

(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018Note: P = Preliminary data

1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Billion Baht FY2016 FY2017PFY2017P FY2018P

Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb

Revenue 2,412 2,354 697 617 545 192 155(%YoY) (9.3) (-2.4) (-6.9) (2.3) (-0.8) (14.7) (11.5)Expenditure1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 944 224 166(%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.0) (-12.1) (5.1)Budgetary B/L -324 -441 56 24 -398 -32 -10Non-Budgetary B/L -58 35 19 43 -32 -54 -10Cash B/L (CG) -382 -406 76 68 -431 -87 -20Net Financing 397 489 68 171 88 94 21Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 181 189 189

9

Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons

sa, 3mmaThousand persons

sa, 3mma

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

% 2016 20172017 2018

H1 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb

Unemployment rate (sa)

1.0 1.2 1.21.2

(1.2)1.1

(1.3)1.3

(1.2)1.3

(1.3)

Employed persons (%YoY)

-0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2

Underemployment rate

0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8

Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Core (72.56%)Feb

0.42%

Feb0.63%

10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2017P2017P 2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE YTD

Trade Balance 31.9 15.2 16.6 10.1 6.5 1.3 2.3 3.6

Exports (f.o.b.) 235.1 112.3 122.8 61.6 61.2 19.9 19.8 39.7

%YoY 9.7 7.3 12.0 12.5 11.6 16.7 7.7 12.0

Imports (f.o.b.) 203.2 97.1 106.2 51.5 54.7 18.6 17.5 36.1

%YoY 14.4 15.0 13.8 13.0 14.6 22.5 21.8 22.1Net Services, Income & Transfers

16.3 7.6 8.6 3.8 4.8 3.9 3.9 7.7

Current Account 48.1 22.8 25.3 13.9 11.3 5.2 6.2 11.4Capital and Financial Account

-18.4 -12.8 -5.6 0.5 -6.2 5.0 -3.9 1.1

Overall Balance 26.0 10.2 15.8 12.6 3.2 9.0 0.0 9.0

11

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Millions of USD 2017P 2017P 2018P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE YTD1. Assets -36,269 -20,273 -15,997 -7,377 -8,619 433 -198 235TDI -20,749 -9,016 -11,733 -4,042 -7,691 -530 -683 -1,213

- Equity -9,553 -2,788 -6,765 -2,293 -4,472 -370 -972 -1,342Thai Portfolio investment -11,968 -6,493 -5,475 -2,900 -2,575 -505 319 -186

- Equity security investment -7,784 -3,656 -4,128 -3,093 -1,035 -901 -930 -1,831- Debt security investment -4,184 -2,837 -1,347 193 -1,540 396 1,249 1,645

Loans -1,007 -567 -440 -223 -217 327 -251 75Other Investments -2,545 -4,196 1,651 -212 1,863 1,141 418 1,559

- Trade credits -5,093 -798 -4,295 -2,333 -1,962 187 -808 -6212. Liabilities 18,041 7,516 10,525 7,917 2,608 4,579 -3,084 1,496FDI 9,101 3,999 5,102 2,053 3,049 842 586 1,427

- Equity 5,048 1,891 3,157 2,204 953 458 448 906Foreign Portfolio investment 9,491 3,808 5,683 5,382 301 2,472 -3,015 -543

- Equity security investment 595 630 -35 248 -282 395 -1,313 -918- Debt security investment 8,896 3,178 5,718 5,134 583 2,077 -1,702 375

Loans 4,986 1,446 3,540 2,128 1,411 763 -527 236Other Investments -5,537 -1,738 -3,799 -1,646 -2,153 502 -127 375

- Trade credits -1,767 -71 -1,696 -411 -1,286 330 -273 58Total Financial Flows (1+2) -18,228 -12,757 -5,471 540 -6,011 5,012 -3,281 1,731

Net Financial Flows

12

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and BloombergSources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg

% p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

30-D

ec-1

522

-Jan-

1612

-Feb

-16

7-M

ar-1

628

-Mar

-16

22-A

pr-1

618

-May

-16

9-Ju

n-16

30-Ju

n-16

26-Ju

l-16

17-A

ug-1

67-

Sep-

1628

-Sep

-16

19-O

ct-1

610

-Nov

-16

1-De

c-16

26-D

ec-1

618

-Jan-

178-

Feb-

172-

Mar

-17

23-M

ar-1

718

-Apr

-17

11-M

ay-1

71-

Jun-

1722

-Jun-

1714

-Jul-1

77-

Aug-

1729

-Aug

-17

19-S

ep-1

710

-Oct

-17

3-No

v-17

24-N

ov-1

719

-Dec

-17

11-Ja

n-18

1-Fe

b-18

22-F

eb-1

816

-Mar

-18

Latest data 23 Mar 2018

Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

NEER REER USDTHB

Mar 2018(Average data until 23 Mar)THB Appreciation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Jan-

18Fe

b-18

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

Feb 2018E

3.3

-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

IDR INR EUR PHP GBP KRW SGD CNY TWD MYR THB JPY

end of Feb 2018 compared to end of Jan 2018

23 Mar 2018 compared to end of Feb 2018

Exchange Rate Movement

(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)