Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015 Crop Market Outlook Apr. 26, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected]

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2015 Crop Market Outlook

Apr. 26, 2015

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

[email protected]


U.S. Corn Supply and Use2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 89.2

Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8

Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,625

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,827

Imports (mil. bu.) 29 160 36 25 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,477

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,557 4,315 5,036 5,250 5,275

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,225

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,428 1,397 1,367 1,395 1,410

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,543 730 1,917 1,800 1,850

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,645 13,760

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 989 821 1,232 1,827 1,717

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.50

Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 84.6

Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0

Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,852

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 215 169 141 92 370

Imports (mil. bu.) 16 41 72 30 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,242

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,795 1,840

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 88 105 97 136 116

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,790 1,820

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,721 3,775

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 92 370 467

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.10 9.00

Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015


Corn Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2014 YieldBottom: Change from last yearUnits: Bu/acre


Soybean Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2014 YieldBottom: Change

from last monthUnits: Bu/acre


World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB


World Soybean Production

Source: USDA-WAOB


Hog Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig


Cattle Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head


U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB


Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS


Soybean Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Soybean Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS


Crude Oil Prices

Sources: EIA and CME


Strength of the U.S. Dollar

Source: Federal Reserve


Corn Grind for Ethanol


Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 4/27/2015

3.63

3.67


Current Soybean Futures

Source: CME Group, 4/27/2015

10.01

9.19


2014/15 Crop Margins


2015/16 Crop Margins


Thoughts for 2015 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns

Demand has been weakeningOutside markets have not helpedWatching South American crop and U.S. planting progressProjected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops

2014/15

USDA

2015/16

USDA

2014/15

Futures

(4/27/15)

2015/16

Futures

(4/27/15)

Corn $3.70 $3.50 $3.63 $3.67

Soybeans $10.10 $9.00 $10.01 $9.19


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

Documents

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015 Crop Market Outlook Apr. 26, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected]