E&Y Entrepreneurship Barometer, Part 2: INDIA - Country Digest

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  • 8/3/2019 E&Y Entrepreneurship Barometer, Part 2: INDIA - Country Digest

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    Entrepreneurs speak out

    A call to action for G20 governments

    The Nice Cte dAzur 2011Entrepreneurship Barometer

    Produced for the G20 Young Entrepreneur Summit,

    October 2011

    Growing Beyond

    Country digestArgentina

    Australia

    Brazil

    Canada

    China

    France

    Germany

    India

    Indonesia

    Italy

    Japan

    Mexico

    Russia

    Saudi Arabia

    South Africa

    South Korea

    Turkey

    United KingdomUnited States

    European Union

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    TendencyWeighted score:

    higher quartile

    Weighted score:

    lower quartile++

    +

    Deterior

    ated

    I

    mproved

    ViewpointDilip Shanghvi

    Chairman and Managing Director,

    Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

    Ltd, India

    Dilip Shanghvi founded Sun

    Pharmaceutical Industries in 1983

    with seed capital of just US$2,500. Today, the pharmaceutical

    company has revenues of US$1.3 billion and manufacturing

    locations on five continents.

    In India, I think we need to encourage students

    entrepreneurial spirit and risk-taking capability in schools

    and colleges. Nevertheless, it is common for young people

    to start businesses after spending time in a large company.

    We need to recognize this as a process that people follow,

    and come up with a methodology to help them make this

    transition.

    A great motivator for people is when someone they know

    becomes successful. Hence, achieving a critical mass in

    terms of the number of people who become successful is

    important. We need a range of approaches and processes to

    create a network of mentors to help people solve problemsand find advice.

    For those who make the leap and have a good idea, access

    to PE funding has improved. However, for small companies,

    regulatory delays can make the difference between success

    and failure: access to some of the benefits they are supposed

    to receive doesnt happen in time. The proposed Goods and

    Services Tax [GST] could completely change the landscape

    for entrepreneurs it will streamline and unify taxes across

    the country.

    The perception barometerThis study focuses on the entrepreneurship environment of

    G20 countries through the lens of ve fundamental enablers:

    entrepreneurship culture; education and training; access to funding;

    regulation and taxation; and coordinated support.

    Through these enablers, we explore the climate for entrepreneurs in

    the G20 countries and the likely direction things will take.

    Our original approach is based on:

    Quantitative economic indicators

    The opinions of entrepreneurs on the progress and impact of

    specicenablers

    Our perception barometer sums up progress as evaluated by more

    than 1,000 entrepreneurs during the last ve years, using four

    score ranges.

    The analysis of these indicators and opinions also highlights how

    entrepreneurs perceptions may differ from the latest economic

    gures; a divergence that may be due to cultural bias, derivative

    ideas or lack of information. Red tape can also present challenges

    when it comes to accessing sources of funding.

    These gaps in perception raise a call to action for governments to

    tackle these specic issues.

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    1Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Strengths One of the fastest-growing economies

    Strong entrepreneurial environment

    Availability of bank lending is very strong

    Growth across all funding instruments

    Weaknesses Business start-up costs are highest in the G20

    as a percentage of per capita income

    Opportunities Proposed tax reforms, if implemented, could relieve

    some of the tax burden on entrepreneurs

    Threats India is looking to curtail credit growth as part

    ofeffortstocontrolination,andsteadilyrising

    interest rates could constrain entrepreneursaccess to bank credit

    The impact of proposed widespread changes inregulatory and tax policy is not fully clear

    The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer by Ernst & Young

    Generalandspecicfactorsinuencingthe

    entrepreneurship environment

    IndiaGreat potential for opportunities

    Indianentrepreneursneedtobeexibletograbtheopportunities

    offered by Indias rapid economic growth and development.

    However, it seems this potential hasnt fully been grasped:

    only one-third of the Indian respondents rated their country

    as the most favorable business environment out of the G20.

    Thisshowsonlyamoderatedegreeofnationalcondence,which

    isreectedinthenumberofnewbusinessregistrations.Indeed,

    it ranks lower than the average of the G20 countries and

    rapid-growth markets.

    Looking across the different enablers of entrepreneurship,

    Indian entrepreneurs are in a great position to access funding,

    and the regulatory environment, while in some ways challenging,

    is much improved. The culture of entrepreneurship is one of thecountrys greatest strengths.

    New business registeredIndia compared to G20 and rapid-growth market average

    Source: World Bank. Data not available for US, China and Saudi Arabia.

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008

    India Rapid-growth market averageG20 average

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    2 Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Indian entrepreneurs were more convincedthan those in other G20 countries that

    the positive image of entrepreneurs in

    the media has had a high impact on the

    perception of entrepreneurship over the last

    ve years. Looking ahead, the vast majority

    of Indian entrepreneurs thought improving

    communication around entrepreneur

    success stories would have a high impact on

    the entrepreneurship culture over the next

    three years.

    Despite the lowest level of R&D expenditurein the G20 average, several organizations

    are making pioneering moves in innovation,

    of both products and processes, in order

    to be able to service Indias fast-expanding

    market in a cost-effective manner.

    India has an extremely strong entrepreneurial culture,

    perhaps the strongest out of any G20 country, at leastin terms of the perceptions of its own entrepreneurs

    98% of whom agreed with the statement that Indian

    culture encourages entrepreneurship. This is the highest

    percentage believing this about their country in the G20.

    Entrepreneurship cultureThe strongest entrepreneurial culture

    Do you think that the culture of your country

    encourages entrepreneurship?

    Source: The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer

    by Ernst & Young.

    Disagree

    2%

    Agree

    98%

    Mature markets: 72%

    Rapid-growth markets: 80%

    1. G20 average based on the 17 countries for which data is available for 2007.2. G20 average based on the 13 countries for which data is available for 2007.

    98% agreed Indian culture encouragesentrepreneurship the top rate in the G20

    India G20 average

    Innovative environment 2007 Change200507

    2007 Change200507

    R&D expenditure (% of GDP) 2005-071 0.8 0 p.p. 1.5 +0.14 p.p.

    Scienticandtechnicaljournalarticles(number of publications)

    18,194 24.3% 31,376 +6.0%

    Researchers in R&D (per million of population)2 n.a. n.a. 2,340 +0.5%

    n.a.: data not availablep.p.: percentage points

    47% saw business failure as a learning opportunity

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    3Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Yes

    67%

    No

    31%

    Cant say

    2%

    Mature markets: 59%

    Rapid-growth markets: 80%

    Education and trainingEntrepreneurs education gains

    Specic courses and business schools alsoseem to have improved, say 76%, while

    75% praised the perfecting of coaching

    programs. However, little credit is given

    to dedicated training, as only 67%

    thought specic training helped. This

    score was under the 80% average for

    rapid-growth markets.

    Over the last ve years, severalGovernment programs were launched to

    encourage and promote entrepreneurship

    by organizing workshops, national seminars

    and funding of entrepreneurship-related

    education. The National Skill Development

    Corporation (NSDC) is a not-for-prot

    company set up by the Ministry of Finance.

    It is a pioneering public-private partnership

    (PPP) set up to facilitate the development

    and upgrading of the skills of the growing

    Indian workforce through skill training

    programs.

    In addition, a National Policy on SkillDevelopment was formulated by the

    Ministry of Labor and Employment

    and approved by the Cabinet on

    23 February 2009. The objective is

    to create a workforce empowered

    with improved skills, knowledge and

    internationally recognized qualications

    to gain access to employment and ensure

    Indias competitiveness in the dynamic

    global labor market.

    India G20 average

    2008 Change200508

    2008 Change200508

    Public spending on education, total(% of GDP) 200506

    3.1 0 p.p. 4.8 +0.3 p.p.

    School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 60.0 +5.8 p.p. 95.9 +1.6 p.p.

    School enrollment, tertiary (% gross)2005-07

    13.5 +2.5 p.p. 53.5 +1.0 p.p.

    Tertiary-type A and advanced research

    programs (number of graduates)3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8%

    3. Based on 11 countries for which data is available.

    Do you think that students need to follow specific

    training to become entrepreneurs?

    Source: The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer

    by Ernst & Young.

    Alargemajorityofourpaneldescribedrealprogressin

    theeldofentrepreneurshipeducation.Anoverwhelming

    80% cited developing entrepreneurship conferences and

    seminars.

    67% 94%of our respondents feel that studentsneedtofollowspecictrainingtobecome

    entrepreneurs

    of entrepreneurs think that promoting success stories

    to students is a key priority to improve studentperception of entrepreneurship as a career option

    n.a.: data not availablep.p.: percentage points

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    4 Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Surprisingly, 80% of Indian entrepreneursreported an improving access to bank loans.

    This change can be explained by Indias

    banking sectors limited exposure

    to international markets. However,

    steadily rising interest rates could weigh

    on lending growth in the future.

    This situation could become an issue.

    Indeed, many respondents thought

    bank loans would have a high impact on

    improving entrepreneurship over the next

    three years.

    The stock market and IPOs were seen

    to have improved in terms of the access

    to funding they provide by 76% and 67%

    of Indian entrepreneurs.

    A very large majority (80%) of the

    entrepreneurs we interviewed reported that

    funding from PE had improved since 2005.

    The PE deal value grew massively over

    the period, from US$961 million in 2005

    to nearly US$6 billion in 2010. Venture

    capital (VC), of all funding instruments, was

    reported to have improved by the greatestproportion of respondents, with 88% of

    those we talked to having this opinion.

    Indeed, the deal value of VC equity invested

    in India was up 173% over the period.

    For 61%, access to funding from business

    angels had improved a smaller proportion

    reporting improvement than for some

    of the other funding instruments,

    indicative of the relatively smaller role

    business angels play in India. This is incommon with other rapid-growth market

    countries, where business angels tend not

    to play as large a role as in the mature

    markets. For 63%, access to funding from

    public aid had improved. Nonetheless,

    less than a third viewed public aid as likely

    to have a high impact, looking ahead.

    IndiaPerceptionbarometer200510

    G20 averagePerceptionbarometer200510

    2010 Change200510

    2010 Change200510

    Business angels (number of networks)4 n.a. n.a. + n.a. +48% +

    Venture capital (VC) (US$m) 1,349 173% ++ n.a. +17% +

    SME bank loans (% of GDP) 4.3% n.a. ++ 14.1% n.a. +

    Private equity (US$m) 5,989 523% ++ n.a. -22% +

    SME stock markets (number of listed companies) n.a. n.a ++ n.a. +22% +

    IPOs in main stock market (number of deals) 63 +21% + n.a. +12% +

    IPOs in SMEs stock market (number of deals) n.a. n.a n.a. -33%

    Alongside undeniable improvements in funding access in India from 2005 to 2010,

    67%ratedaccessasdifcultoverall.

    Access to fundingImproving but still tough

    Funding instruments in IndiaPrivate equity and IPO

    Source: Thomson ONE and Bombay Stock Exchange.

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    9,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Capital raised by IPO, BombayStock Exchange (US$m) (left scale)

    Sum of equity invested(US$m) (right scale)

    n.a.: data not available

    4. G20 average of the seven countries for which data is available through The European Trade of Association for Business Angels (EBAN).

    80% of Indian entrepreneurs reportedimproved access to funding 523%growth has been registered in private equity (PE)investment since 2005

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    5Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    It has become much easier to starta business, according to 71% of the

    entrepreneurs we spoke to. Although

    the number of procedures required to start

    a business has actually increased by one

    since 2005, the number of days it takes has

    dropped by a massive 42 to reach 29 days

    in 2010. The cost of starting a business

    has also reduced, by 5.5% of per capita

    income although this remains the highest

    gure out of any G20 country, at 56.5%

    of per capita income, largely due to India

    having the lowest level of per capita income

    in the group. Similarly, the minimum capital

    requirements are highest in the G20 as a

    percentage of per capita income, but these

    have seen impressive reductions over the

    period, registering a 163% drop.

    However, tax incentives were the onlyregulation and taxation measure that

    more of our survey respondents thought

    had deteriorated than those who thought

    it had improved. Time spent on tax issues

    has slightly declined over the period, by

    6 hours per year to 258 however, there

    remains much room for further reductions

    to alleviate the burden on enterprises.

    The implementation of the twin tax policy

    initiatives in India the Direct Taxes Code

    (DTC) and the Goods and Services Tax

    (GST) would be signicant in removing

    the current complexities and bringing

    simplicity, efciency and greater certainty

    in the tax laws for businesses in general,

    and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in

    particular. These reforms would rationalizethe tax structure, reduce transaction and

    compliance costs and would be instrumental

    in reducing the litigation and controversies

    that presently surround the tax systems in

    India. Thus, the tax regulatory environment

    for doing business in India is expected to

    improve considerably.

    India G20 India G20 average

    Perception barometer200510

    2010 Change200510

    2010 Change200510

    Innovation incentives + + Tax subsidy rate for US$1 of R&D, SMEs 2008 0.269 n.a. 0.148 n.a.

    Tax incentives - + Start-up incentives (% of GDP) 200508 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

    Ease of starting abusiness

    ++ + Number of procedures to start a business 12 +1 7.7 -1.4

    Time to start a business (days) 29 -42 22.3 -18.1

    Cost to start a business (% income per capita) 56.5 -5.5 p.p. 10.6 -9.8 p.p.

    Intellectual property

    (IP) protection

    + + Number of patents 2005095 34,287 +39.9% 126,375 +9.2%

    Business regulation + + Time spent on tax issues (hours per year) 258 -6 367.1 -72.4

    Labor market rigidity + + Cost of hiring 0.16 n.a. 0.3 n.a.

    Notice period 4.3 n.a. 5 n.a.

    Severance cost 11.4 n.a. 12.2 n.a.

    n.a.: data not availablep.p.: percentage points

    India has considerably improved its regulation and taxation environment for

    entrepreneurs. However, barriers remain, and varying opinions were gathered

    on regulation and taxation trends.

    Regulation and taxationA noticeable progression

    29 71%days were necessary in 2010 to start a businessin India, a drop of 42 days since 2005 stillrecommendfurthersimplicationofprocedures to start a business

    5.G20averagebasedon12countriesandEuropeanPatentOfceforwhichdataisavailablein2005and2009.

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    How would you evaluate the coordinationbetween governments, associations

    and education systems in your country?

    Source: The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship

    Barometer by Ernst & Young.

    Well coordinated

    24%

    Poorly coordinated76%

    Mature markets: 41%

    Rapid-growth markets: 51%

    6 Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Coordinated supportQuality acknowledged, coordination in progress

    Entrepreneurs clubs and associations, and mentoring

    programsareperceivedasthemostefcientsupportfor

    entrepreneurs long-term growth in the next three years.

    Many Indian entrepreneurs acknowledgethe quality of support provided in

    their country. On the positive side,

    entrepreneurs clubs and associations

    have improved, say 84% of our

    respondents. Two-thirds mention the

    development of chambers of commerce.

    That said, they were not so enthusiastic

    about coordination: 76% mentioned poorly

    integrated help, with India scoring the

    highest of the rapid-growth market

    in this area.

    Indian entrepreneurs were split 50:50 on

    the question of whether entrepreneurs

    benet from tailored support. However,

    for those who did believe they beneted

    from such support, 84% regarded this

    support as efcient. One example of

    tailored support provided in India is the

    Technology Incubation and Developmentof Entrepreneurs (TIDE). This scheme

    was initiated by the Department of

    Information Technology (DIT) with

    the broad objectives of setting up and

    strengthening technology incubation

    centers in institutions of higher learning;

    nurturing technology entrepreneurship

    development for commercial exploitation of

    technologies developed by them; promoting

    product-oriented R&D; encouraging

    development of indigenous products and

    packages; and bridging the gap between

    R&D and commercialization. At present, the

    scheme is being implemented at 15 TIDE

    centers. It was launched in late 2008 and

    proposes to support 27 TIDE centers and

    2 virtual incubation centers over a period of

    four years.

    Coordinated support entrepreneurs perception of progress and future impact

    Source: The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer by Ernst & Young.

    Chambers of commerce

    Entrepreneurs

    clubs and associations

    Government agencies

    Incubators

    Mentoring program

    60.0

    80.0

    10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    Impactofnextthreeyears

    Progress of last five years

    84%described better entrepreneurs clubs andassociationsbut76%mentionedaninefcient

    coordination of business support

    Do young entrepreneurs benefit from tailored

    support in your country?

    Source: The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer

    by Ernst & Young.

    Yes

    49%

    No

    49%

    Cant say

    2%

    Mature markets: 42%

    Rapid-growth markets: 56%

    49%notice a lack of tailored support programs foryoung entrepreneurs

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    7Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Launch date Main application area

    Rajiv Gandhi Udyami Mitra Yojana (RGUMY)

    TheobjectivesofRGUMYaretoprovidehandholdingsupport,assistanceandinformationto

    rst-generationentrepreneurs,aswellasotherexistingentrepreneurs,andtohelptheminaccessing bank credit.

    2008 Coordinated support,

    entrepreneurialculture

    Goods and Services Tax (GST)

    LaunchedinApril2011,theaimoftheBillistocreateasingleanduniedIndianmarket.This measure will reduce compliance costs and make the tax regulatory environment for SMEs easier.

    2011 Regulation andtaxation

    Credit Guarantee Fund Scheme for Micro and Small Enterprises (CGMSE)

    The Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME), launched the Credit Guarantee FundScheme for Micro and Small Enterprises (CGMSE) so as to strengthen the credit delivery system andfacilitatetheowofcredittothemicroandsmallenterprise(MSE)sector.TheCGMSEseeksto

    reassure the lender that, in the event that an MSE unit, which has availed collateral-free creditfacilities, fails to discharge its liabilities to the lender, the guarantee trust will make good the lossincurred by the lender by up to 75%, 80% or 85% of the credit facility.

    2000 Access to funding

    Technology Incubation and Development of Entrepreneurs (TIDE)

    This scheme was initiated by the Department of Information Technology (DIT) with the broadobjectivesofsettingupandstrengtheningtechnologyincubationcentersininstitutionsofhigher

    learning; nurturing technology entrepreneurship development for commercial exploitationof technologies developed by them; promoting product-oriented R&D; encouraging developmentof indigenous products and packages; and bridging the gap between R&D and commercialization.At present, the scheme is being implemented at 15 TIDE centers. Eventually, the scheme proposesto support 27 TIDE centers and 2 virtual incubation centers over a period of four years.

    2008 Access to funding,coordinated support

    Trade Related Entrepreneurship Assistance and Development (TREAD)

    The scheme envisages economic empowerment of women through development of theirentrepreneurial skills in non-farm activities.

    19972002(ninthve-yearplan)

    Access to funding,coordinated supportentrepreneurialculture, education

    and training

    Selection of government leading practices

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    8 Entrepreneurs speak out The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer | India digest

    Methodology

    For this rst edition of the EntrepreneurshipBarometer, our analysis of the G20 country

    environment is articulated around

    the ve enablers (access to funding,

    regulation and taxation, education and

    training, entrepreneurship culture,

    coordinated support) dened by the G20

    Young Entrepreneurs Alliance (YEA) in

    Toronto, Canada (2022 June 2010).

    Our analysis is based on four building

    blocks: macroeconomic indicators, a

    perception survey conducted across the

    G20 countries, qualitative interviews of

    emblematic entrepreneurs and an analysis

    of G20 governments leading practices.

    Throughout this report, we have used the

    following denitions:

    Young entrepreneurs are young women

    and men aged between 18 and 40

    The split of country groupings

    between mature markets (MMs) and

    rapid-growth markets (RGMs) is based

    on the denition provided by the

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) As no single denition is shared across

    all the G20 countries for small and

    medium enterprises (SMEs), we have

    adopted each countrys respective

    denition

    We conducted a perception survey with an

    international panel of 1,001 entrepreneurs

    across the G20 countries (50 interviews per

    country). The eld research was conducted

    by CSA Institute between 27 May and

    7 July 2011. The perception barometerwas calculated using a weighted average of

    country performance scores.

    Our quantitative analysis is based on the following economic indicators:

    Access to Funding

    Business angels

    Number of business angel networks [EBAN]Venture capital (VC) fund-raising

    Equity invested (US$m) [TO]SME lending

    Loan value (% of GDP) [WB]Private equity (PE)

    Deal value (US$m) [DL]

    SME stock markets

    Value of shares trading (US$m) [WFE] Number of listed companies [WFE]

    Broad public stock market

    Value of shares trading (US$m) [WFE] Number of listed companies [WFE]

    Initial public offering (IPO) broad and junior

    market activity

    IPO number of deals [DL] IPO capital raised [DL]

    Entrepreneurship culture

    Innovative environment Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) [WB] Scientic and technical journal articles (per million of population) [WB] Researchers in R&D (per million of population) [WB]

    Regulation and Taxation

    Tax subsidy rate for US$1 of R&D SMEs [OECD]Start-up incentives (% of GDP) [OECD]

    Starting a business

    Number of procedures [WB] Time (days) [WB] Cost (% income per capital) [WB] Minimum capital (% income per capital) [WB]

    Number of patents [WIPO]Time spent on tax issues (hours/year) [WB]Cost of hiring, severance cost and notice period [WB]

    Education and Training

    Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) [WB]School enrollment, secondary (% growth) [WB]School enrollment, tertiary (% growth) [WB]Tertiary-type A and advanced research program (number of graduates) [OECD]

    Sources: Dealogic (DL), World Bank (WB), European Business Angel Association (EBAN), World Federationof Exchanges (WFE), World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Capital IQ data (CIQ), Organization forEconomic Cooperation and Development (OECD), ThomsonOne (TO).

    Further details can be found in the methodology section

    of The Nice Cte dAzur 2011 Entrepreneurship Barometer

    by Ernst & Young.

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    1 Throughvekeyenablers,theEntrepreneurshipBarometeranalyzesentrepreneurs perception as well as government leading practices inorder to provide key recommendations to governments and entrepreneurs.

    2 Thecountryprolesexplorethenationalspecicitiesofentrepreneurshipenvironment to provide a better understanding to entrepreneursconsidering international expansion.

    3Highlighting the main conclusions of the report, the Barometer websiteprovides further government leading practices and entrepreneurssuccess stories.

    www.ey.com/entrepreneurship-barometer

    Entrepreneurs speak outA call to action for G20 governments

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    Ernst & Young

    Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory

    Contact

    Farokh Balsara

    India Strategic Growth Markets Leader

    Tel: +91 22 6192 0280

    Email: [email protected]

    About Ernst & Young

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    2011 EYGM Limited.

    All Rights Reserved.

    EYG No. CY0195

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    This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for

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    The opinions of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the opinions

    of the global Ernst & Young organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should

    be seen in the context of the time they were expressed.

    Growing Beyond

    In these challenging economic

    times, opportunities still exist for

    growth. In Growing Beyond, were

    exploring how companies can best

    exploit these opportunities byexpanding into new markets, nding

    new ways to innovate and taking

    new approaches to talent. Youll

    gain practical insights into what you

    need to do to grow. Join the debate

    at www.ey.com/growingbeyond.

    This report has been produced in collaboration with

    Oxford Analytica (www.oxan.com), an independent

    consultancy that has for over 35 years provided

    authoritative analysis of the macro environment.