F. DPO Assessment Tables and Figures

Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (encompassing Deep Water Plan Options) SEIA Report – Appendix F DPO Assessment Tables and Figures F1

F. DPO Assessment Tables and Figures

F.1. Region: South West

Table F1: SW1 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies

Ener

gy

Gen

erat

ion

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Inte

rcon

nect

ors

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Com

mer

cial

Sh

ippi

ng

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) (£000s) 0 0 432 0 0 0 0 11.5 1231

9 0 124 5187

Key Constraints within DPO The key sectors which may constrain development within SW1 with regards to cost are commercial shipping and watersports (recreational angling).

Potential Mitigation Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 will reduce diversions required to transit the region. Watersports: The plan may require developers to maintain access to recreational angling within the arrays, particularly during operation in fixed bottom offshore wind developments. *Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F2: SW – Commercial Fisheries The total value of landings from the SW region was £173 million (annual average 2013-2017, 2019 prices). The majority was of shellfish (93%), and over-12m vessels dominated the value of landings (77%). The main gear types were dredges, demersal trawls and creels.

Within SW1, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that creels and dredges (over-12m vessels) and creels and miscellaneous (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from SW1 was £78,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £12,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within SW1 predominantly operated from Ayr (over-12m and under-12m vessels). The majority of the landings (83%) from the over-12m vessels were made into non-Scottish UK ports, with the remainder predominantly made into Kirkcudbright (7%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Port William (40%) and Drummore (37%).

For the over-12m vessels, creels operated across SW1, while dredges operated mainly in the southern and western parts of SW1 and demersal trawls operated in the northern part of SW1. For the under-12m vessels, creels and miscellaneous gear operated in particular in the northern part of SW1. VMS and Scotmap data are shown in Figures F5, F6, and F14–F16.

Foreign VMS data shows that no foreign over-12m vessels fished within SW1.

Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)

Assumptions for quantified impacts

Fishing with all gear types is excluded from within the windfarm arrays. Arrays are completed in 2030, with construction taking place in 2028 and 2029. The impacts to commercial fisheries are quantified in terms of the value of landings that would be lost, converted to direct GVA impact using fleet-specific multipliers. See Appendix A for full methodology.

Description of non-quantified impacts

As a worst-case scenario, it is assumed that fishing ceases within the arrays and is not displaced. If fishing is displaced to other areas:

- The impact on the value of landings would be lower, as vessels would take catches from elsewhere;

- There is potential for: - Conflict between fishing vessels due to reduced fishing area


- Changes to vessel costs/revenues (from increased steaming times, changes to catch per unit effort)

- Impacts on habitats and species outside of the DPO. Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO SW1 Realistic maximum development capacity (GW) 1

Percentage of DPO developed under maximum development capacity scenario

68.5%

Annual value of loss of landings (£000s) (for the maximum development scenario in the DPO) Over-12m vessels SW1 Demersal trawls

36.8 Pelagic trawls

Creels

Dredges 16.5 Sub-total over-12m 53.3 Under-12m vessels SW1 Beam trawl n/a Demersal trawls <0.1 Creels 3.8

Dredges 0.2

Nets <0.1 Lines n/a


Miscellaneous 4.1 Sub-total under-12m 8.1

Total all vessels 61.5

Cost Impacts (£000s)

Total costs (2020 to 2059) 1,905.4

Annualised costs 39.0 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 850.2

Economic Impacts

Direct GVA (£000s)

Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 968.6

Annualised change in GVA 19.8 Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059) 432.2

Direct + Indirect GVA (£000s)

Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 1,549.8

Annualised change in GVA 31.8 Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059) 691.5

Direct, Indirect + Induced GVA (£000s)


Annualised change in GVA 35.7


Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059) 777.9

Employment (FTEs)

Direct and indirect reduction in employment 0.6

Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment 0.7

Where data represent fewer than 5 individuals/vessels/companies, their value cannot be disclosed for data protection reasons, therefore, gears may be grouped together. Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of costs for the DPO summed over the 40-year period. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA = The change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries summed over the 40-year period. Annualised change in GVA = A measure of the annual change in GVA that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) over the lifetime of the project. Present value of total change in GVA = Total change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct, indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector in full-time equivalents (FTEs), and indirect reduction in employment on the sector’s suppliers. Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment = The average (mean) reduction in employment in the sector, the sector’s suppliers and across the economy as a whole as a result of reduced expenditure by employees and suppliers.


Table F3: SW – Energy Generation There is overlap between SW1 and the Draft Plan Option area for Tidal energy. This overlap potentially introduces competition for space within SW1 between the two sectors and potential competition for transmission capacity. Energy generation is shown in Figure F4.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There are no quantified impacts to the energy sector

Description of non-quantified impacts The impact of competition for space and transmission capacity is considered an opportunity cost for the sector. It is not possible to quantify this cost.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts)

DPO SW1 Realistic maximum development capacity 1


68.5%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) -

Annualised costs -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) -

Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F4: SW – Recreational Boating There are multiple offshore cruising routes which transect through SW1. The average length of these routes in SW1 is 23.0 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 30 transits through the DPO. Recreational boating is shown in Figure F10. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)

Assumptions for quantified impacts Development of the DPO will require recreational vessels to divert around the DPO; fuel usage 40 l/hr; fuel cost £1.12 /l; vessel speed 20 knots; 17% of recreational vessels use AIS. all vessels are under engine power.

Description of non-quantified impacts Costs related to navigational safety for recreational boating are not quantified but impacts are considered in the SEA. The cost of potential reduced visitor numbers to marinas and associated economic costs are not possible to quantify.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO SW1 Realistic maximum development capacity 1


68.5%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 25.7 Annualised costs 0.5 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 11.5



Table F5: SW – Commercial Shipping There is an overarching high density of shipping within the SW region, including several particularly high-density routes. There are multiple commercial shipping routes which intersect SW1. The length of the route in SW1 and 10 km buffer is 19.5 NM and there were a total of 3,770 transits through the DPO. Commercial shipping is shown in Figure F3. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)


Development of the DPO will require commercial vessels to divert around the DPO; fuel usage 2,941 l/hr; fuel cost 56.29 p/l +11.14p/l tax; vessel speed 20 knots. The centre of the shipping routes through the DPOs have been taken as an average from which diversion may be required.

Description of non-quantified impacts Costs related to navigational safety for commercial shipping are not quantified but are considered in the SEA.



68.5%

Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO)

Total costs (2020 to 2059) 27610.6


Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value.


Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F6: SW – Tourism SW1 is within 15 km of land in the Dumfries and Galloway region as defined by Visit Scotland. Areas of land within 18 km of the DPO are considered as having the potential to be impacted by development. 4.02 % of the Dumfries and Galloway Visit Scotland region is within 18 km of SW1. Tourism is shown in Figure F13. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)


The development of the DPOs may impact on tourism, by reducing visitor numbers or spend in the tourism sector. Tourism expenditure is distributed around the Visit Scotland region in question as a function of housing density within each parish in that region. Tourism spend in an area will be reduced by 1.3% by the presence of turbines within 18 km.

Description of non-quantified impacts No assessment of wildlife tourism trips has been undertaken as no data is available to determine the level of expenditure related to this within the DPOs.



68.5%

Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO: )

Total costs (2020 to 2059) 277.8

Annualised costs 5.7

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 124.0




Table F7: SW – Water Sports Within the SW region there is a high level of recreational activity. Around SW1 this is principally recreational boat angling. Other recreational activity is restricted to areas inshore of SW1, with some canoeing or stand up paddleboarding activity closer to land and some kite / windsurfing in Luce Bay. Recreational angling is shown in Figure F11. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)


The vast majority of recreational angling is undertaken within 6 nm of land. The level of spend on recreational angling by boat and shore anglers is proportional to the level of participation. The density of activity is distributed evenly within 6 nm of land in each area identified by Radford et al, 2009. All activity will be displaced by array development. Displaced activity is lost altogether, and not re-distributed within the same region.


Assessment of other recreational activities inshore of the DPOs are not quantitatively assessed (canoeing, stand up paddleboarding) as cable routes / landfall locations are unknown, and there is limited information available as to the economic value of these activities to the regions.



68.5%

Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO) Total costs (2020 to 2059) 11626.1




F.2. Region: West

Table F8: DPO W1 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) (£000s) 0 0 1482 0 0 0 0 5.3 1587 0 379 3159

Key Constraints within DPO

The key sectors which may potentially constrain development in W1 with regards to cost are commercial shipping, watersports and commercial fisheries.

Potential Mitigation


Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain fishing gears, in the case of W1 the dominant gears are pots and traps, which are less likely to be displaced by offshore wind farm development. Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 will reduce diversions required to transit the region. Watersports: The plan may require developers to maintain access to recreational angling within the arrays, particularly during operation in fixed bottom offshore wind developments. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F9: W – Commercial Fisheries The total value of landings from the West region was £176 million (annual average, 2013-2017, 2019 prices). The majority was of shellfish (96%), and under-12m vessels were responsible for a significant proportion of landings (46% by value). The main gear types were demersal trawls, creels and dredges.

VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that creels (over-12m and under-12m vessels) was the main gear type that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from the DPO area was £352,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £209,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Over-12m vessels fishing within W1 predominantly operated from Belfast in Northern Ireland, with Oban being the main Scottish home port and under-12m vessels mainly operated from Campbeltown and Oban.

Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly to non-Scottish ports (98%), with Mallaig and Oban being the main Scottish ports for landings. Under-12m vessels’ landings were made predominantly into Islay (28%), Fionnphort (22%) and Port Ellen (20%).

For the over-12m vessels, creels operated across W1. For the under-12m vessels, creels operated in particular in the eastern part of the DPO. VMS and Scotmap data are shown in Figures F5, F6, and F16–F18.

Foreign VMS data shows that over-12m vessels predominantly from Ireland fished in the western part of W1 (Figure F16).







- There is potential for: - Conflict between fishing vessels due to reduced fishing area


- Changes to vessel costs/revenues (from increased steaming times, changes to catch per unit effort)

- Impacts on habitats and species outside of the DPO. There is potential for impact on non-UK vessels, in particular Irish vessels, which has not been quantified.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO W1 Realistic maximum development capacity (GW) 2


36.15%

Annual value of loss of landings (£000s) (for the maximum development scenario in the DPO) Over-12m vessels Demersal trawls

127.3 Demersal seines

Dredges

Creels

Sub-total over-12m 127.3 Under-12m vessels Demersal trawls 1.5 Dredges 53.1 Creels 17.9 Lines 3.2


Miscellaneous

Sub-total under-12m 75. 7

Total all vessels 203.0 Cost Impacts (£000s)

Total costs (2020 to 2059) 6,293.4

Annualised costs 129.0

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 2,808.0

Economic Impacts

Direct GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 3,321.6

Annualised change in GVA 68.1 Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059)

1,482.0




2,371.3


Direct, Indirect + Induced GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 5,978.8


2,667.7

Employment (FTEs)

Direct and indirect reduction in employment 2.0

Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment 2.2



Table F10: W – Energy Generation There is overlap between W1 and the Draft Plan Option area for Wave energy and is adjacent to the Draft Plan Option area for Tidal Stream energy generation. The overlap and clustering of different technology DPOs potentially introduces competition for space within W1 between the two sectors and potential competition for transmission capacity. Energy generation is shown in Figure F4.




The impact of competition for space and transmission capacity is considered an opportunity cost for the sector. It is not possible to quantify this cost.


DPO W1 Realistic maximum development capacity in GW (% scaling)

2

% of site developed under maximum development scenario

36.15%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) -

Annualised costs - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) -



Table F11: W - Military W1 is entirely within the West of Scotland Navy Exercise Area. It occupies 2.4% of the exercise area. There is potential that this area could accommodate development in W1, however this would require confirmation by the MOD. Military is shown in Figure F7.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There is no quantified cost to the military sector associated with development in W1


Costs are unlikely to be significant, however there is potential for military activity to be displaced. It is not possible to quantify this cost. Costs at a national scale to update MOD procedures to ensure safe navigation around any wind farms are assumed to be part of normal business, and therefore not introduce additional cost. No quantified estimate of cost is made for the interaction between any developments and underwater communications.



2


36.15%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - Annualised costs - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) -


Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F12: W – Recreational Boating There are multiple offshore cruising routes which transect through W1, the average length of these routes through the DPO and surrounding 10 km buffer is 36 NM. AIS annual data shows there were a total of 35 transits through the DPO. Recreational boating is shown in Figure F10.



Development of the DPO will require recreational vessels to divert around the DPO. Fuel usage 40 l/hr Fuel cost £1.12 /l Vessel speed 20 knots 17% of recreational vessels use AIS. All vessels are under engine power.


Costs related to navigational safety for recreational boating are not quantified but impacts are considered in the SEA. The cost of potential reduced visitor numbers to marinas and associated economic costs are not possible to quantify.


DPO W1

Realistic maximum development capacity in GW (% scaling)

2


36.15%



Total costs (2020 to 2059) 11.8 Annualised costs 0.2 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 5.3 Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F13: W – Commercial Shipping There are no high density commercial shipping routes which transect through W1, the length of the highest density route within the DPO and 10 km buffer is 32.2 NM (however only requiring a small diversion to the west) and there is a second lower density route of the same length requiring a larger diversion. There were a total of 3,055 transits annually through W1 which, for the purposes of calculating the cost of diversions, are assumed to be split across the two routes. Commercial shipping is shown in Figure F3.



Development of the DPO will require commercial vessels to divert around the DPO; fuel usage 2,941 l/hr; fuel cost 56.29 p/l +11.14p/l tax; vessel speed 20 knots


Costs related to navigational safety for commercial shipping are not quantified but are considered in the SEA.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO W1 Realistic maximum development capacity in GW (% scaling)

2


36.15%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 3556.3



Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F14: W – Tourism 4.98 % of the Argyll and the Isles Visit Scotland region is within 18 km of the DPO. The development of this area may impact on tourism, by reducing visitor numbers or spend in the tourism sector. Tourism is shown in Figure F13.





No assessment of wildlife tourism trips has been undertaken as no data is available to determine the level of expenditure related to this within the DPO.



2


36.15%



Total costs (2020 to 2059) 850.4


Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F15: W – Water Sports Within the W region there is a high level of recreational activity. Around the DPO this is principally recreational boat angling. Other recreational activity is restricted to areas inshore of the DPO, with some canoeing or stand up paddleboarding activity closer to land. Recreational angling is shown in Figure F11. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)




Assessment of other recreational activities inshore of the DPOs are not quantitatively assessed (canoeing, stand up paddleboarding) as cable routes / landfall locations are unknown, and there is limited information available as to the economic value of these activities to the regions.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO W1 Realistic maximum development capacity in GW (% scaling)

2



36.15%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 7080.5



F.3. Region: North

Table F16: DPO N1 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

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l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

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orts




The key sectors within the DPO which may constrain development are commercial shipping and commercial fisheries.

Potential Mitigation Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 will reduce diversions required to transit the region. Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain gear types within the arrays. Within N1 the dominant gear types are pots and traps, demersal trawls and dredges. Whilst not all gear types are compatible with offshore wind development, some may co-exist, such as pots and traps. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

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Costs are low for all sectors within N2, with the highest costs related to commercial fisheries and commercial shipping.


Commercial shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 will reduce diversions required to transit the region. There is limited mitigation available to reduce costs on commercial fisheries, however some costs may be reduced through spatial planning within the DPO to avoid more intensively fished areas. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

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The key sector with highest costs which may constrain development in N3 is commercial fisheries.

Potential Mitigation Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain fishing gears, in the case of N3 the dominant gears are a combination of creels, which are less likely to be displaced by offshore wind farm development, and demersal trawls which are less compatible with offshore wind developments. However, the spatial planning of the DPO may avoid areas of key productivity for the demersal trawl sector. Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 will reduce diversions required to transit the region. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

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Rec

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l B

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Ship

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Tele

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Tour

ism

Wat

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orts



Costs in N4 are generally low, the most significant costs are to the tourism and watersports (recreational angling) sectors.

Potential Mitigation Tourism: Impacts on tourism are linked to the potential visual impacts from the turbines, therefore mitigation applied to reduce the visual impact has the potential to mitigate impacts on tourism. This may include selection of smaller turbines, however due to the proximity of the DPO from shore there are likely to be residual visual impacts irrespective of mitigation applied. Watersports: The plan may require developers to maintain access to recreational angling within the arrays, particularly during operation in fixed bottom offshore wind developments. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F20: N – Commercial Fisheries The total value of landings from the North region was £362 million (annual average, 2013-2017, 2019 prices). The majority was of pelagic species (52%), followed by shellfish (31%). Over-12m vessels dominated the landings (87% by value). The main gear types were midwater trawls, demersal trawls and creels.

Within N1, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) and creels (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within this DPO. The value of landings from N1 was £613,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £3,700 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within N1 predominantly operated from Scrabster and Kirkwall (home port, over-12m vessels) and Kinlochbervie, Scrabster and Kirkwall (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Scrabster (67%) and Stromness (17%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Erribol (37%), Scrabster (9%) and Stromness (8%).

Within N2, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO; there were no under-12m vessels operating within this DPO (indicated from Scotmap data). The value of landings from N2 was £181,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Over-12m vessels fishing within N2 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh, Lerwick and Kirkwall. Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Kinlochbervie (47%) and Scrabster (28%).

Within N3, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that midwater and demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) and miscellaneous gears (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within this DPO. The value of landings from N3 was £766,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and for under-12m vessels it cannot be disclosed (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within N3 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh and Scrabster (over-12m). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Kinlochbervie (35%), Scrabster (22%) and Lerwick (20%).

Within N4, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that creels (over-12m vessels and under-12m vessels) was the main gear type that operated within this DPO. The value of landings from N3 was £50,000 (over-12m vessels, from


VMS data) and £41,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within N4 predominantly operated from Ullapool (over-12m vessels) and Stornoway (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Ullapool (94%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Back (26%), Stornoway (19%), Bernera (Lewis) (17%) and Carloway (14%).

For the over-12m vessels, creels operated across N1, N3 and N4 and demersal trawls operated across N1, N2, and N3; dredges operated across N1 while demersal seines operated mainly in the south eastern parts of N1; midwater trawls operated across N3. For the under-12m vessels, creels operated in particular across N4 and in the southern parts of N3 and N1. VMS and Scotmap data are shown in Figures F5, F6, and F19–F21.

Foreign VMS data shows that over-12m vessels predominantly from Ireland operated within the western part of N3. French, Dutch, Faroese and German vessels also operated within N3 as well as N1. French vessels also operated across N4 (Figure F19).







- There is potential for: - Conflict between fishing vessels due to reduced fishing area - Changes to vessel costs/revenues (from increased steaming times, changes to

catch per unit effort) - Impacts on habitats and species outside of the DPO.


There is potential for impact on non-UK vessels, in particular in N3, which has not been quantified.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO N1 N2 N3 N4 Maximum Development Scenario Capacity 2 2 2 1

% of site developed under maximum development scenario 34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%

Annual value of loss of landings (£000s) (for the maximum development scenario in the DPO)

Over-12m vessels N1 N2 N3 N4 Demersal trawls

99.3 100.4 128.8

50.1

Demersal seines n/a

Dredges 24.3 n/a n/a

Pelagic trawls 87.3 29.0

100.4

Creels

47.6 Lines n/a n/a

Miscellaneous n/a n/a

Sub-total over-12m 210.9 129.4 276.8 50.1 Under-12m vessels N1 N2 N3 N4 Demersal trawls <0.1

n/a N.D. 1.9

Dredges <0.1

Lines <0.1

Nets 0.1

Miscellaneous 2.6


Creels 1.2 36.2 Sub-total under-12m 1.3 0.0 N.D. 40.6 Total all vessels 212.2 129.4 N.D. 90.7


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 6,578.4 4,012.0 8,620.7 2,813.1

Annualised costs 134.8 82.2 176.6 57.6 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 2,935.2 1,790.1 3,846.4 1,255.2

Economic Impacts

Direct GVA (£000s)

Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 3,120.2 1,845.3 4,461.8 1,513.8

Annualised change in GVA 63.9 37.8 91.4 31.0 Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059) 1,392.2 823.4 1,990.8 675.4


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 4,992.2 2,952.5 7,139.0 2,422.0

Annualised costs 102.3 60.5 146.3 49.6 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 2,227.5 1,317.4 3,185.3 1,080.7

Direct, Indirect + Induced GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 5,616.3 3,321.6 8,031.3 2,724.8 Annualised change in GVA 115.1 68.1 164.6 55.8


Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059) 2,505.9 1,482.0 3,583.5 1,215.8

Employment (FTEs) Direct and indirect reduction in employment 2.1 1.3 2.7 0.9

Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment 2.3 1.4 3.0 1.0



Table F21: N – Energy Generation There is overlap between N3 and N4 and the large Draft Plan Option area to the west of the Outer Hebrides for wave energy. This overlap potentially introduces competition for space within the DPOs between the two sectors and potential competition for transmission capacity. There is no interaction between N1 or N2 and energy generation activities. Energy generation is shown in Figure F4.



Description of non-quantified impacts The impact of competition for space and transmission capacity is considered an opportunity cost for the sector. It is not possible to quantify this cost.


DPO N1 N2 N3 N4 Maximum Development Scenario Capacity 2 2 2 1

% of site developed under maximum development scenario 34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - -

Annualised costs - - - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - -

Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value.




Table F22: N – Recreational Boating There is a generally moderate to high density of recreational boating within the North region, the majority of which is within 12 NM of land. The RYA defines offshore cruising routes which may be used by recreational vessels, some of which overlap with the DPOs. There are multiple offshore cruising routes which transect through N1. The average length of these routes in the DPO and surrounding 10km buffer is 25 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 49 transits through the DPO. There are small overlaps of an offshore cruising routes in N4. The length of the route in N4 and surrounding 10km buffer is 22.76, however there is no additional mileage required to divert the route around the DPO. Recreational boating is shown in Figure F10.









34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%



Total costs (2020 to 2059) 16.4 - - -

Annualised costs 0.3 - - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 7.3 - - -



Table F23: N – Commercial Shipping There are multiple commercial shipping routes which intersect DPOs in the North Region. The length of the route in N1 and 10 km buffer is 32.6 NM and there were a total of 3,874 transits through the DPO. The length of the route in N2 and 10 km buffer is 38.8 NM and there were a total of 1,373 transits through the DPO. The length of the route in N3 and 10 km buffer is 26.6 NM and there were a total of 2,444 transits through the DPO. The length of the route in N4 and 10 km buffer is 23.1 NM and there were a total of 693 transits through the DPO. Commercial shipping is shown in Figure F3.



Development of the DPO will require commercial vessels to divert around the DPO Fuel usage 2,941 l/hr Fuel cost 56.29 p/l +11.14p/l tax Vessel speed 20 knots The highest density route through the DPO has been taken as an approximate average for all vessels to calculate the diversion.






34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%



Total costs (2020 to 2059) 19922.1 937.6 711.7 803.7

Annualised costs 408.2 19.2 14.6 16.5

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 8889.0 418.3 317.5 358.6



Table F24: N – Tourism Within the North region, N4 is 18 km of inhabited land, and hence has the potential to impact on tourism. From N4 18.73 % of the Outer Hebrides Visit Scotland region is within 18 km of the DPO. Given that N1, N2 and N3 are all beyond 18 km of inhabited land, it is assumed that there will be no impact on tourism in the region if these DPOs are developed. Tourism is shown in Figure F13. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)








34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - 4238.2

Annualised costs - - - 86.8

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - 1891.0


Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F25: N – Water Sports Within the North region, there is potential for recreational boat angling within N4, throughout the DPO. All other DPOs are further offshore, and there is little to no recreational angling. There is limited other recreational activity within or inshore of the DPOs, although there are recognised surf spots on the coastline inshore of N4 and along the north coast of Scotland. Recreational angling is shown in Figure F11. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)




Assessment of other recreational activities inshore of the DPO are not quantitatively assessed (canoeing, stand up paddleboarding, kitesurfing, windsurfing and surfing) as cable routes / landfall locations are unknown, and there is limited information available as to the economic value of these activities to the regions.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO N1 N2 N3 N4 Maximum Development Scenario Capacity 2 2 2 1


34.39% 71.38% 36.16% 100%


Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO) Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - 4278.6 Annualised costs - - - 87.7 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - 1909.1


F.4. Region: North East

Table F26: DPO NE1 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts





Potential Mitigation Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain gear types within the arrays. Within NE1 the dominant gear types are demersal trawls and pelagic trawls, distributed throughout the DPOs, which have the potential to be displaced by offshore wind development. There may be, however, some potential for spatial planning to avoid the higher intensity fishing grounds within the DPO with the majority of fishing concentrated to the north and south-west of the DPO. *Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts




The key sectors within the DPO which may constrain development are commercial shipping and power interconnectors. It is separately recognised that the location of NE2 entirely within the Moray Firth MOD Danger Area may constrain or preclude development in the DPO.

Potential Mitigation Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Power: The cost relates to the potential diversion of the Shetland interconnector. Consultation with the cable installer, and subsequent spatial planning to allow for a corridor within the DPO for the interconnector has the potential to mitigate this cost in its entirety. *Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts



The key sector within the DPO which may constrain development is commercial shipping. It is separately recognised that the location of NE3 entirely within the Moray Firth MOD Danger Area may constrain or preclude development in the DPO.


Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region.

*Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts



The key sector within the DPO which may constrain development is commercial shipping. It is separately recognised that the location of NE4 entirely within the Moray Firth MOD Danger Area may constrain or preclude development in the DPO.


Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. However, the nature of the shipping dispersed throughout NE4 indicates that there is likely to be a significant impact on the commercial shipping sector irrespective of mitigation applied.




Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts



The key sector within the DPO which may constrain development is commercial shipping.


Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. In addition there is a proportion of the calculated transits which are related to support vessels for the current wind farm developments in the region, therefore this traffic is less likely to require to divert around the DPO.




Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts





Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. However, the nature of the shipping, including lifeline ferry traffic, dispersed throughout NE6 indicates that there is likely to be a significant impact on the commercial shipping sector irrespective of mitigation applied.




Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts





Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain gear types within the arrays. Within NE7 the dominant gear types are demersal trawls and pelagic trawls, distributed throughout the DPOs, which have the potential to be displaced by offshore wind development. There may be, however, some potential for spatial planning to avoid the higher intensity fishing grounds within the DPO with the majority of fishing concentrated to the north-east and south-west of the DPO. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact



Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts




Potential Mitigation Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Commercial Fisheries: The plan may require developers to maintain access to certain gear types within the arrays. Within NE8 the dominant gear types are demersal trawls, particularly in the north-east half of the DPO, which have the potential to be displaced by offshore wind development. There may be, however, some potential for spatial planning to avoid the higher intensity fishing grounds within the DPO. *Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F34: NE - Aviation Within the NE region there are multiple overlaps between Helicopter Main Routes (HMR) used by civil helicopters and the DPOs. Current CAA advice is that there should be no development within 2 NM of the HMRs, therefore there is potential for overlaps with HMRs to be a constraint on development. However, should development be progressed in the DPOs where there is overlap, helicopters may be required to divert around the arrays. NE1 (2 overlaps), NE6 (7 overlaps), NE7 (5 overlaps) and NE8 (2 overlaps) all overlap with the HMRs. There is additionally potential overlap between NE3, NE4, NE5, NE6, NE7 and NE8 and primary surveillance radars at 200m. Aviation is shown in Figure F1. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) Assumptions for quantified impacts

It is not possible to quantify the impact of diverting helicopters at this point, as the number of helicopter transits along each HMR and the cost per km for additional helicopter miles is unknown.


The diversion of helicopters will require additional miles, incurring both time related and fuel costs. However, as discussed above this cannot currently be calculated. It is assumed that any required mitigation regarding surveillance radar is met by the developer, therefore there is no cost to the aviation sector. There is no impact to the aviation sector if development is constrained by the HMRs.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO NE1 NE2 NE3 NE4 NE5 NE6 NE7 NE8 Realistic maximum development capacity 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1


51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -

Annualised costs - - - - - - - - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -




Table F35: NE – Carbon Capture and Storage There is overlap between NE2, NE3, NE4 and NE8 and potential pipeline routes towards saline aquifers which may have potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. In addition, there is overlap between NE8 and the Mains saline aquifer, overlap between NE2, NE4 and NE8 with the Captain aquifer and NE2, NE3 and NE4 with the Mey aquifer. The captain aquifer has been identified in the only current project (ACT Acorn) as a potential sink for the carbon storage, whilst feasibility reports also identify the Mey aquifer as having potential for development. CCS is shown in Figure F2. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) Assumptions for quantified impacts There are no quantified costs to the CCS sector.


There is potential for competition for space between renewable energy and CCS developments, this could lead to opportunity costs for the sector, however these are not possible to quantitatively assess. In addition, both the Mey and the Captain aquifers have large areas outwith the DPOs, therefore the development of offshore wind is unlikely to prevent development of CCS projects. The current infrastructure (goldeneye pipeline) proposed to be used in the development of the ACT Acorn project does not overlap with the DPOs.



51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -



Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F36: NE – Commercial Fisheries The total value of landings from the NE region was £645 million (annual average 2013-2017, 2019 prices). The majority was of pelagic species (54%), followed by demersals (29%). Over-12m vessels dominated the value of landings (93%). The main gear types were midwater trawls and demersal trawls.

Within NE1, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) and dredges (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE1 was £416,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £24,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within NE1 predominantly operated from Lerwick and Peterhead (over-12m vessels) and Lerwick (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Lerwick (75%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Lerwick (58%), Sullom/Toft (17%) and Whalsay (12%).

Within NE2, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal seines and trawls (over-12m vessels) and creels (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE2 was £148,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £4,500 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within NE2 predominantly operated from Peterhead, Scrabster, Fraserburgh and Lerwick (over-12m vessels) and Kirkwall and Scrabster (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (53%) and Scrabster (26%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Wick (40%), Kirkwall (30%) and South Ronaldsay (26%).

Within NE3, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal seines and midwater trawls (over-12m vessels) and dredges (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE3 was £147,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and <£100 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).


Vessels fishing within NE3 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh, Scrabster and Peterhead (over-12m vessels) and Scrabster (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (53%), Fraserburgh (24%) and Wick (14%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Wick (76%).

Within NE4, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that dredges (over-12m vessels and under-12m vessels) was the main gear type that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE4 was £287,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £2,200 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within NE4 predominantly operated from Ayr and Buckie (over-12m vessels) and Scrabster (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Fraserburgh (54%) and Buckie (34%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Wick (76%) and Scrabster (14%).

Within NE5, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that dredges and demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) and creels and demersal trawls (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE5 was £294,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £34,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within NE5 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh, Ayr and Buckie (over-12m vessels) and Buckie, Scrabster, Ullapool and Fraserburgh (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Fraserburgh (54%), Buckie (21%) and Peterhead (17%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Burghead (29%), Wick (12%), Buckie (12%) and Fraserburgh (11%).

Within NE6, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal seines and trawls (over-12m vessels) and creels (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO. The value of landings from NE6 was £96,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and <£500 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within NE6 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh (over-12m and under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Fraserburgh (63%) and Peterhead (28%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Fraserburgh (71%) and Peterhead (18%).


Within NE7, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that pelagic trawls and demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO; there were no under-12m vessels operating within this DPO. The value of landings from NE7 was £676,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Over-12m vessels fishing within NE7 predominantly operated from Fraserburgh and Peterhead. Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (40%) and Fraserburgh (22%).

Within NE8, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that midwater trawls (over-12m vessels) were the main gear type that operated within the DPO; there were no under-12m vessels operating within this DPO. The value of landings from NE8 was £435,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Over-12m vessels fishing within NE8 predominantly operated from Belfast in Northern Ireland, with Fraserburgh and Lerwick being the main Scottish home ports. Nearly three quarters of landings (74% by value) from the over-12m vessels were landed abroad; the remainder of landings were made predominantly into Peterhead (16%) and Fraserburgh (9%).

For the over-12m vessels, demersal trawls operated across all DPOS in the region, while demersal seines operated in parts of all DPOs in the region; dredges operated across NE3, NE4 and NE5 in particular; midwater trawls operated in the NE7, NE8 and NE3. Hooks and lines also operated in the north part of NE1. For the under-12m vessels, trawls operated in particular across N4 and creels in the western parts of NE2. There were no landings records from under-12m vessels in NE7 and NE8. Scotmap data does not cover NE1, but dredges, creels and demersal trawls operated across ICES rectangles 49E9 and 50E9. VMS and Scotmap data are shown in Figures F5, F6, and F22–F24..

Foreign VMS data shows that over-12m operated mainly within NE7, NE8 and NE1. Danish, French, Dutch, German, Swedish and Norwegian vessels in particular operated across these DPOs. NE1 was fished more densely than the other DPOs in the region, in particular by Norwegian vessels as well as French, Dutch, German and Danish vessels (Figure F22).








- There is potential for: - Conflict between fishing vessels due to reduced fishing area - Changes to vessel costs/revenues (from increased steaming times, changes to catch per unit

effort) - Impacts on habitats and species outside of the DPO.

There is potential for impact on non-UK vessels, in particular in NE1, which has not been quantified. Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO NE1 NE2 NE3 NE4 NE5 NE6 NE7 NE8 Realistic maximum development capacity 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1


51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%

Annual value of loss of landings (£000s) (for the maximum development scenario in the DPO) Over-12m vessels NE1 NE2 NE3 NE4 NE5 NE6 NE7 NE8 Demersal trawls (DT) 172.3 DS

33.2

DT+ D 30.4

8.2 7.5 42.8 18.2 159.3 25.3 Demersal seines (DS) 12.6 53.0 13.9 24.0 25.6 16.9 10.6 Pelagic trawls (PT)

PT + LN 29.5

25.5 n/a n/a

11.0 395.1 175.0

Dredges (D) 109.1

52.0 n/a Creels (CR) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Lines (LN) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Sub-total over-12m 214.4 63.6 86.6 130.4 118.8 54.8 64.3 210.9


Under-12m vessels NE1 NE2 NE3 NE4 NE5 NE6 NE7 NE8 Demersal trawls

0.7 <0.1

<0.1 1.0

5.7 <0.1 n/a n/a Pelagic trawls n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Dredges 8.0 n/a 1.4

<0.1

n/a n/a Miscellaneous n/a <0.1

0.7 n/a n/a

Lines 0.6

<0.1 n/a n/a

Nets n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Creels 2.9 1.9 6.0 0.2 n/a n/a Sub-total under-12m 12.2 1.9 <0.1 1.0 13.8 0.2 0.000 0.000 Total all vessels 226.6 65.6 86.7 131.4 132.6 55.03 395.1 199.5

Cost Impacts (£000s) Total costs (2020 to 2059) 7,028.8 2,032.8 2,686.7 4,073.2 4,100.4 1,707.1 12,248.5 6,539.3

Annualised costs 144.0 41.7 55.1 83.5 84.0 35.0 251.0 134.0

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 3,136.1 907.0 1,198.8 1,817.4 1,829.6 761.7 5,465.1 2,917.7

Economic Impacts

Direct GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 3,087.4 894.1 1,344.5 1,812.0 1,799.6 773.5 6,648.9 4,001.8

Annualised change in GVA 63.3 18.3 27.5 37.1 36.9 15.8 136.2 82.0

Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059)

1,377.6 399.0 599.9 808.5 803.0 345.1 2,966.7 1,785.5


Direct + Indirect GVA (£000s) Total costs (2020 to 2059) 4,939.9 1,430.6 2,151.2 2,899.1 2,879.4 1,237.5 10,638.3 6,402.9

Annualised costs 101.2 29.3 44.1 59.4 59.0 25.4 218.0 131.2 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 2,204.1 638.3 959.8 1,293.6 1,284.8 552.2 4,746.7 2,856.9

Direct, Indirect + Induced GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 5,557.3 1,609.5 2,420.1 3,261.5 3,239.4 1,392.2 11,968.1 7,203.2

Annualised change in GVA 113.9 33.0 49.6 66.8 66.4 28.5 245.2 147.6


2,479.6 718.1 1,079.8 1,455.2 1,445.4 621.2 5,340.0 3,214.0

Employment (FTEs)

Direct and indirect reduction in employment 2.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.5 3.8 2.0

Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment

2.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.6 4.3 2.3

Where data represent fewer than 5 individuals/vessels/companies, their value cannot be disclosed for data protection reasons, therefore, gears may be grouped together. Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of costs for the DPO summed over the 40-year period. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA = The change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries summed over the 40-year period. Annualised change in GVA = A measure of the annual change in GVA that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) over the lifetime of the project.


Present value of total change in GVA = Total change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct, indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector in full-time equivalents (FTEs), and indirect reduction in employment on the sector’s suppliers. Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment = The average (mean) reduction in employment in the sector, the sector’s suppliers and across the economy as a whole as a result of reduced expenditure by employees and suppliers.


Table F37: NE – Energy Generation NE4 and NE5 are directly adjacent to the Moray East Offshore Wind Farm development, currently under construction and is close to Beatrice OWF, under construction, and Moray West OWF, in planning. This has the potential to introduce competition for transmission capacity in the region. Energy generation is shown in Figure F4.




The impact of competition for space and transmission capacity is considered an opportunity cost for the sector. It is not possible to quantify this cost.


DPO NE1 NE2 NE3 NE4 NE5 NE6 NE7 NE8 Realistic maximum development capacity 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1


51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -

Annualised costs - - - - - - - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F38: NE - Military Within the NE region there is a large danger area (Moray Firth) which encompasses NE2, NE3 and NE4 in their entirety; overlaps with NE5; and is directly adjacent to NE6. There is potential for development within NE1, NE3, NE4, NE5, NE6, NE7 and NE8 to interact with military radar. Military is shown in Figure F7.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There is no quantified cost to the military sector associated with development in NE.


There is uncertainty whether areas overlapping with danger areas or radar could accommodate development. For both radar and danger area overlaps it is more likely to constrain development than introduce a cost onto the sector. Where mitigation is possible to allow development to progress it is assumed that the cost of mitigating any impacts will fall on developers.




51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -





Table F39: NE – Oil and Gas Within the NE region there is a well-established oil and gas industry and there are multiple overlaps between the DPOs and oil and gas sites, including licenced blocks, known hydrocarbon fields and lease award blocks. There is overlap between NE4 and a licence block in the south east of the DPO. There is overlap between NE6 and licence and award blocks in the west of the site, and a known hydrocarbon field in the north east of the site. There is overlap between NE7 and licence and award blocks throughout the DPO. There is a small area of overlap between NE8 and licence and award blocks in the southwest corner of the DPO. There is no overlap between NE1, NE2, NE3 and NE5 and oil and gas activities. Oil and gas is shown in Figure F8.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There are no quantified impacts for the Oil and Gas sector.


There is potential for competition for space in DPOs overlapping with oil and gas activities. This could lead to opportunity costs for the Oil and Gas sector if activities are displaced by offshore wind developments.




51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - - - - - -



Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F40: NE – Power Interconnectors There is overlap between the proposed route for the Shetland Interconnector and NE2. There is also overlap between the rough area of search for the Maali connector between Shetland and Norway and NE1, however this is still at a very early stage and no route has been determined at this point from which to calculate a diversion. Finally there is overlap between NE4 and NE5 and the Caithness to Moray interconnector, which has been completed. It is assumed that the completed route will place a constraint on development within the DPO. Power interconnectors are shown in Figure F9. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)


It is assumed that development in NE2 will occur before the Shetland interconnector is progressed, and therefore the Shetland interconnector will be required to divert around the DPO. The diversion of the Shetland interconnector around NE2 is assumed to divert around the border with a 1 km buffer. The cost per extra km of diversion is 1.06m at 2013 prices.


If there are requirements for cable crossings with installed cables it is assumed that the costs for these are met by the developer. It is assumed that the broad area of search allows for the Maali interconnector to avoid development within NE1 without incurring significant additional costs.



51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%

Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO) Total costs (2020 to 2059) - 7340.1 - - - - - -


Annualised costs - 247.3 - - - - - - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - 5385.6 - - - - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F41: N – Recreational Boating There are multiple offshore cruising routes which transect through the DPOs in the North East region. The length of the route in NE1 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 37.7 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 21 transits through the DPO. The average length of these routes in NE2 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 19.1 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 12 transits through the DPO. The length of the route in NE3 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 26.8 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 3 transits through the DPO. The average length of these routes in NE5 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 21.8 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 9 transits through the DPO. The length of the route in NE6 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 31.5 NM and AIS annual data shows there were a total of 13 transits through the DPO. There is no interaction between offshore cruising routes and NE4, NE7 or NE8. Recreational boating is shown in Figure F10. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)








51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%

Cost Impacts (£000s) Total costs (2020 to 2059) 35.6 2.0 0.2 - 6.9 14.4 - -

Annualised costs 0.7 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 0.3 - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 15.9 0.9 0.1 - 3.1 6.4 - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F42: NE – Commercial Shipping There is a large volume of shipping in the North East region, with a number of key routes around the coast of Scotland and transiting either around the UK coastline or towards the Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands, Scandinavia, the Faroe Islands and Iceland. There are ship tracks, taken from the 2015 AIS data, which intersect with all of the DPOs. There are no clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through NE1, however there is a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, with the majority of traffic transiting the region on a southwest to northeast axis. There were a total of 2283 transits through the DPO. NE2 overlaps with clearly defined commercial shipping routes at both the eastern and western boundaries. There is additionally a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO. There were a total of 1616 transits through the DPO. There is no overlap between NE3 and clearly defined commercial shipping routes, although there are routes just beyond the eastern, northern and western boundaries. There may be, however, a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, the majority of which is transiting the site on an east to west axis in the northern half of the DPO. There were a total of 1204 transits through the DPO. The key route around Scotland intersects NE4, with high density traffic throughout the DPO. There were a total of 3141 transits through the DPO. There are no clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through NE5, however there is a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, and a route for service vessels accessing the Beatrice wind farm towards the southwest of the DPO on a north-south axis. There were a total of 2353 transits through the DPO. There are a number of clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through NE6, including key ferry routes from Aberdeen to Shetland which are concentrated through the centre of the site. Additionally there is a high level of shipping throughout the entire site, generally on a north-south axis. There were a total of 7262 transits through the DPO. There are no clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through NE7, however there is a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, with the majority of traffic transiting the region on a southwest to northeast axis. There were a total of 3115 transits through the DPO. There is one clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transects through NE8 at the northern boundary. Additionally, there is a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, with the majority of traffic transiting the region on a southwest to northeast axis. There were a total of 1984 transits through the DPO. Commercial shipping is shown in Figure F3.



Development of the DPO will require commercial vessels to divert around the DPO; Fuel usage 2,941 l/hr; Fuel cost 56.29 p/l +11.14p/l tax; Vessel speed 20 knots. Where there are clearly defined routes in the DPO these have been used to calculate the required diversion. Where routes are less


clearly defined an average route using the highest density axis has been used to calculate the average diversion around the DPO.






51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 5059.0 8666.7 4590.8 5914.3 14416.4 44164.4 6907.4 1742.1

Annualised costs 103.7 177.6 94.1 121.2 295.4 904.9 141.5 35.7

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 2257.3 3866.9 2048.4 2638.9 6432.4 19705.5 3082.0 777.3



Table F43: NE – Tourism

Within the NE region, only NE2 is within 18 km of inhabited land. 1.54 % of the Orkney Islands Visit Scotland region is within 18 km of the DPO. Tourism is shown in Figure F13.





All tourism expenditure is equally distributed around the visit Scotland region in question. Tourism spend in an area will be reduced by 1.3% by the presence of turbines.





51.55% 43.10% 59.00% 39.60% 40.32% 57.22% 53.19% 45.87%

Cost Impacts (£000s) (Realistic maximum development scenario for DPO) Total costs (2020 to 2059) - 35.1 - - - - - - Annualised costs - 0.7 - - - - - - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - 15.7 - - - - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value.




F.5. Region: East

Table F44: DPO E1 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 0 0 326 0 0 0 401 0 1516 0 0 0




Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Power: although the potential cost associated with the diversion of power interconnectors is low, there is potential to mitigate this cost in its entirety through consultation with the cable developer and spatial planning of arrays within the DPO to allow for an appropriate cable corridor. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F45: DPO E2 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector (£000s)

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts





Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. In addition, although costs are reasonably low, there is potential to reduce impacts on commercial shipping in E2 through appropriate spatial planning. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F46: DPO E3 Maximum Development Scenario Costs by Sector (£000s)

Sector

Avi

atio

n

CC

S

Com

mer

cial

Fi

sher

ies*

Ener

gy

Mili

tary

Oil

and

Gas

Pow

er

Rec

reat

iona

l B

oatin

g

Ship

ping

Tele

com

Tour

ism

Wat

ersp

orts



The key sectors within the DPO which may constrain development are commercial shipping and power interconnectors.


Commercial Shipping: Planning of DPO, to include design of shipping lanes, in accordance with MCA guidance in MGN543 has the potential to reduce diversions required to transit the region. Power: The cost relates to the potential diversion of the Eastern HVDC. Consultation with the cable installer, and subsequent spatial planning to allow for a corridor within the DPO for the interconnector has the potential to mitigate this cost in its entirety. * Commercial fisheries costs are reported in terms of direct GVA impact


Table F47: E - Aviation Within the E region there are multiple overlaps between Helicopter Main Routes (HMR) used by civil helicopters and the DPOs. Current CAA advice is that there should be no development within 2 NM of the HMRs, therefore there is potential for overlaps with HMRs to be a constraint on development. However, should development be progressed in the DPOs where there is overlap, helicopters may be required to divert around the arrays. E1 (3 HMR overlaps) and E2 (7 HMR overlaps) both overlap with the HMRs. There is additionally potential overlap between E1, E2 and E3 and primary surveillance radars at 200m. Aviation is shown in Figure F1. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) Assumptions for quantified impacts

It is not possible to quantify the impact of diverting helicopters at this point, as the number of helicopter transits along each HMR and the cost per km for additional helicopter miles is unknown.


The diversion of helicopters will require additional miles, incurring both time related and fuel costs. However, as discussed above this cannot currently be calculated. It is assumed that any required mitigation regarding surveillance radar is met by the developer, therefore there is no cost to the aviation sector. There is no impact to the aviation sector if development is constrained by the HMRs.

Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO E1 E2 E3 Realistic maximum development capacity 3 2 1


15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - -

Annualised costs - - - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - -




Table F48: E – Carbon Capture and Storage There is overlap between E2 potential pipeline routes towards saline aquifers which may have potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. In addition there is a small overlap between E2 and the Mey saline aquifer which feasibility reports identify as having potential for development. CCS is shown in Figure F2. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) Assumptions for quantified impacts There are no quantified costs to the CCS sector.


There is potential for competition for space between renewable energy and CCS developments, this could lead to opportunity costs for the sector, however these are not possible to quantitatively assess. In addition the Mey aquifers have large areas outwith the DPOs, therefore the development of offshore wind is unlikely to prevent development of CCS projects.



15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - -

Annualised costs - - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F49: E – Commercial Fisheries The total value of landings from the E region was £113 million (annual average 2013-2017, 2019 prices). The majority was of shellfish (83%), and landings were evenly split between over-12m vessels (53%) and under-12m vessels (47%). The main gear types were demersal trawls, creels and dredges.

Within E1, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) and creels (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within this DPO. The value of landings from E1 was £363,500 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and <£100 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within E1 predominantly operated from Peterhead (over-12m vessels) and Aberdeen (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (85%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Arbroath (50%).

Within E2, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls (over-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within the DPO; there were no under-12m vessels operating within this DPO. The value of landings from E2 was £370,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices)).

Over-12m vessels fishing within E2 predominantly operated from Peterhead and the non-Scottish port of Grimsby. Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (95%).

Within E3, VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that dredges (over-12m vessels) and creels (under-12m vessels) were the main gear types that operated within this DPO. The value of landings from E3 was £22,000 (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £5,000 (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2013-2017, 2019 prices).

Vessels fishing within E3 predominantly operated from Ayr (registered home port) and the non-Scottish port of Brixham (over-12m vessels) and Peterhead and Aberdeen (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (42%), Aberdeen (29%), Fraserburgh (14%) and Eyemouth (11%). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Peterhead (68%).


For the over-12m vessels, demersal trawls operated across E1 and E2 and demersal seines operated across E1 and the eastern part of E2; dredges operated across E3 and the western parts of E2. For the under-12m vessels, creels operated across E3 and in the western parts of E1. VMS and Scotmap data are shown in Figures F5, F6, and F25–F27.

Foreign VMS data shows that over-12m vessels predominantly operated within E2. Including Danish, French, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish vessels. Danish vessels operated across the central and eastern parts of E1, while French vessels operated in the western part of E1. Belgian and Norwegian vessels also operated within E3 (Figure F25).







- There is potential for: - Conflict between fishing vessels due to reduced fishing area - Changes to vessel costs/revenues (from increased steaming times, changes to catch per unit

effort) - Impacts on habitats and species outside of the DPO.

There is potential for impact on non-UK vessels, in particular in E2, which has not been quantified. Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive) (Deriving from on-Site Impacts) DPO E1 E2 E3 Realistic maximum development capacity 3 2 1



15.72% 31.08% 42.19%

Annual value of loss of landings (£000s) (for the maximum development scenario in the DPO) Over-12m vessels E1 E2 E3 Demersal trawls 47.9 86.7

0.2 Demersal seines 8.9 11.5

Pelagic trawls 0.4

n/a n/a Dredges 16.6 9.1 Sub-total over-12m 57.1 114.9 9.4 Under-12m vessels E1 E2 E3 Demersal trawls

<0.1

n/a 0.1 Creels n/a 1.9 Lines n/a 0.2 Sub-total under-12m <0.1 0.0 2.2 Total all vessels 57.1 114.9 11.6 Cost Impacts (£000s)

Total costs (2020 to 2059) 1,771.5 3,560.8 359.7

Annualised costs 36.3 73.0 7.4 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 790.4 1,588.8 160.5

Economic Impacts

Direct GVA (£000s)


Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 730.8 1,477.2 165.7

Annualised change in GVA 15.0 30.3 3.4


326.1 659.1 73.9


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 1,169.3 2,363.5 265.1

Annualised costs 24.0 48.4 5.4

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 521.7 1,054.6 118.3

Direct, Indirect + Induced GVA (£000s) Total change in GVA (2020–2059) 1,315.5 2,659.0 298.2

Annualised change in GVA 27.0 54.5 6.1 Present value of total change in GVA (2020–2059)

586.9 1,186.4 133.1

Employment (FTEs) Direct and indirect reduction in employment 0.6 1.1 0.1

Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment 0.6 1.3 0.1 Where data represent fewer than 5 individuals/vessels/companies, their value cannot be disclosed for data protection reasons, therefore, gears may be grouped together. Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of costs for the DPO summed over the 40-year period.


Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA = The change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries summed over the 40-year period. Annualised change in GVA = A measure of the annual change in GVA that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) over the lifetime of the project. Present value of total change in GVA = Total change in GVA (direct/indirect/induced as appropriate) for commercial fisheries discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct, indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector in full-time equivalents (FTEs), and indirect reduction in employment on the sector’s suppliers. Direct, indirect and induced reduction in employment = The average (mean) reduction in employment in the sector, the sector’s suppliers and across the economy as a whole as a result of reduced expenditure by employees and suppliers.


Table F50: E - Military

There is potential for development within E1, E2 and E3 to interact with military radar. Military is shown in Figure F7.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There is no quantified cost to the military sector associated with development in the East region


There is uncertainty whether areas overlapping with radar could accommodate development. For radar overlaps it is more likely to constrain development than introduce a cost onto the sector. Where mitigation is possible to allow development to progress it is assumed that the cost of mitigating any impacts will fall on developers.


DPO E1 E2 E3 Realistic maximum development capacity 3 2 1


15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - -

Annualised costs - - -

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F51: E – Oil and Gas Within the E region there is a well established oil and gas industry. There are multiple overlaps between the E1 and E2 and 29th round lease award blocks, and there is a hydrocarbon field directly to the north of E2. There is no overlap between E3 and oil and gas activities. Oil and gas is shown in Figure F8.


Assumptions for quantified impacts There are no quantified impacts for the Oil and Gas sector.


There is potential for competition for space in DPOs overlapping with oil and gas activities. This could lead to opportunity costs for the Oil and Gas sector if activities are displaced by offshore wind developments.




15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - -

Annualised costs - - - Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - - Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.


Table F52: E – Power Interconnectors

There is overlap between the proposed route for the Eastern HVDC link and E1 and E3. Power interconnectors is shown in Figure F9.



It is assumed that development in E1 and E3 will occur before the Eastern HVDC link is progressed, and therefore the Eastern HVDC link will be required to divert around the DPO. The diversion of the Shetland interconnector around NE6 is assumed to divert around the border with a 1 km buffer. The cost per extra km of diversion is 1.06m at 2013 prices.


The cost of potential cable crossings have not been assessed as there is significant uncertainty as to the number of crossings likely to be required.





15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 545.9 - 3173.8

Annualised costs 18.4 - 106.9 Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 400.5 - 2328.7


Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project. Table F53: E – Recreational Boating There is one offshore cruising routes which intersects with E3 North East region. The length of the route in E3 and surrounding 10 km buffer is 19.9NM and there were a total of 10 transits through the DPO. There is no interaction between offshore cruising routes and E1 or E2. Recreational boating is shown in Figure F10. Economic Impacts Arising from the Designation and Management of the Site (Over 2020 to 2059 Inclusive)


Development of the DPO will require recreational vessels to divert around the DPO. Fuel usage 40 l/hr; Fuel cost £1.12 /l; Vessel speed 20 knots; 17% of recreational vessels use AIS. All vessels are under engine power.





15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) - - 0.8

Annualised costs - - 0.0

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) - - 0.3




Table F54: E – Commercial Shipping There is a large volume of shipping in the East region, with a number of key routes around the coast of Scotland and transiting either around the UK coastline or towards the Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands, Scandinavia, the Faroe Islands and Iceland. There are ship tracks, taken from the 2015 AIS data, which intersect with all of the DPOs. There are no clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through E1, however there is a low to moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, with the majority of traffic transiting the region on a northwest to southeast axis. There were a total of 4472 transits through the DPO. There are no clearly defined commercial shipping routes which transect through NE2, however there is a moderate level of shipping throughout the DPO, with the majority of traffic transiting the region on a west to east axis. There were a total of 4329 transits through the DPO. There is some overlap between E3 and clearly defined commercial shipping routes, with routes just within the northern and southern boundaries. There is a moderate to high level of shipping throughout the DPO, the majority of which is transiting the site on a north-west to south-east axis. There were a total of 3367 transits through the DPO. Commercial shipping is shown in Figure F3.



Development of the DPO will require commercial vessels to divert around the DPO Fuel usage 2,941 l/hr Fuel cost 56.29 p/l +11.14p/l tax Vessel speed 20 knots Where there are clearly defined routes in the DPO these have been used to calculate the required diversion. Where routes are less clearly defined an average route using the highest density axis has been used to calculate the average diversion around the DPO.







15.72% 31.08% 42.19%


Total costs (2020 to 2059) 3397.0 1760.8 7009.9

Annualised costs 69.6 36.1 143.6

Present value of total costs (2020 to 2059) 1515.7 785.6 3127.7 Definitions of cost and economic impacts: Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 40 year period. Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value. Annualised costs = A measure of the annual costs that will add up to make up the Present Value (PV) costs over the lifetime of the project.

F.6. Distribution of activity by sector (National)


Figure F1 Aviation


Figure F2 CCS


Figure F3 Commercial shipping


Figure F4 Energy generation


Figure F5 Commercial fisheries (Scotmap)


Figure F6 Commercial fisheries landings values (>15m vessels)


Figure F7 Military


Figure F8 Oil and Gas


Figure F9 Power interconnectors


Figure F10 Recreational boating


Figure F11 Recreational angling


Figure F12 Telecommunication cables


Figure F13 Marine and coastal tourism


F.7. Distribution of fishing activity (Regional)

Figure F14 Inshore fishing (Scotmap) fishing activity (South West)


Figure F15 UK VMS fishing activity (South West)


Figure F16 Non-UK fishing activity (West)


Figure F17 Inshore fishing (Scotmap) fishing activity (West)


Figure F18 UK VMS fishing activity (West)


Figure F19 Non-UK fishing activity (North)


Figure F20 Inshore fishing (Scotmap) fishing activity (North)


Figure F21 UK VMS fishing activity (North)


Figure F22 Non-UK fishing activity (North East)


Figure F23 Inshore fishing (Scotmap) fishing activity (North East)


Figure F24 UK VMS fishing activity (North East)


Figure F25 Non-UK fishing activity (East)


Figure F26 Inshore fishing (Scotmap) fishing activity (East)


Figure F27 UK VMS fishing activity (East)

Documents

F. DPO Assessment Tables and Figures