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October 27,28, 2006 2
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Collider International Finance Committees
Organisation Issues
• Fermi Research Alliance was awarded the contract to operate Fermilab for 5 years with possibility of up to 20 years, if performance is good.
• FRA is partnership between U. Chicago and URA.
• FRA Board of directors, Chair is Bob Zimmer, President of U. Chicago.
• Board has 7 URA regional representatives
• Physics Sub-committee still exists and they organize a Physics Visiting Committee review.
October 27,28, 2006 3
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Collider International Finance Committees
Organisation Issues
• FY2008 Budget: As last year there is a Continuing Resolution, so the year starts as a continuation of last year, No new starts, no increases for projects on the rise.
• Divisions and Sections had a preview in July but we have not distributed a strawman budget, nor heard responses.
• In DOE OHEP, Robin Staffin has moved on to be an advisor to Ray Orbach, OHEP has Acting Head, Dennis Kovar, who was Head of Nuclear Physics for many years.
• We are developing a budget briefing for Dennis for Wednesday, October 31.
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Collider International Finance Committees
Long Range Planning• Steering Group
– Chair: Deputy Director -Young Kee Kim– Committee 50/50 Fermilab-Non Fermilab– Plan US Accelerator Based Future supporting ILC
– Report in September 2007– If ILC decision is delayed:
• Build 6 GeV ILC Linac• 2 GeV LINAC front end• Feed 8 GeV to Accelerator complex and
physics• Eg > 2 MW for 120 GeV protons for LBL
Neutrino Program• 8 GeV protons for muon and kaon program
– Recommendations are under discussion by everyone
– Accelerator and Physics Workshops in November
October 27,28, 2006 5
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Collider International Finance Committees
Tevatron Performance
Tevatron peak and integrated luminosities
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Collider International Finance Committees
2007 Accelerator Shutdown
• Accelerator work appears to have gone well
• Significant work on several of the machines
• Experiments confined efforts to remedial work– Silicon Readout recoveries– CDF Silicon Cooling system
• All Experimenters’ Meeting at 4 pm TODAY – Curia II
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Collider International Finance Committees
Vulnerability Review
• Director commissioned a review of experiment vulnerability– What can we expect to break?– With what vulnerability?– What are appropriate remedial actions?
• Committee– Chair: Dan Green: array of detector
experts
• Excellent Cooperation from the experiments
• No Show stoppers– Need to work on preserving corporate
knowledge and expertise
October 27,28, 2006 15
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Collider International Finance Committees
Future Neutrino Experiments
• MINERvA– Neutrino Cross Sections– To be mounted in front of MINOS Near Detector– R&D and construction preparation is well
advanced– Has full completed all CD3 requirements, awaiting
ESAAB (Nov. 1 ) and start of construction
• NOvA– Long Baseline, Off Axis from NuMI– Enormous Far Detector– Lots of R&D and design work complete– Successfully completed CD2 Baseline review– Construction start of Road in Minesota in Spring
2008
• BNL-FNAL Long Baseline Study
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Collider International Finance Committees
P5 Committee
• Tevatron Running in 2009 – June 2007– Concerned with
• the continued good progress of integrated luminosity
• The understanding of the collaboration manpower
• The understanding of the Laboratory support for operations
– Conclusion was clearly positive
• Tevatron Running in 2010 – September 2007– Wanted to see physics progress– Understand opportunity cost– Anticipated nothing new on effort front
October 27,28, 2006 17
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Collider International Finance Committees
Projected Integrated Luminosity in Run II (fb-1) vs time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
time since FY04
Inte
gra
ted
Lu
min
osit
y (
fb-1
)
extrapolatedfrom FY09
Tevatron Luminosity Delivery for Run II
FY08 start
Real data for FY02-FY07
8.6 fb-1
7.2 fb-1
Highest Int. Lum
Lowest Int. Lum
FY10 start
FY09 and FY10 integrated luminosities
assumed to be identical
October 27,28, 2006 19
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Collider International Finance Committees
Criteria for running in 2010
• Important Physics
• Viable Collaborations
• Acceptable damage to other programs
October 27,28, 2006 20
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Collider International Finance Committees
Important Physics
• We explore uniquely a large variety of physics at the energy frontier until LHC detectors overtake us
• Sensitivity to ~160 GeV Higgs at 95% CL, opens in the next year
• Low mass Higgs (Standard or lowest lying MSSM Higgs below 150 GeV) is hard to reach early with the LHC
October 27,28, 2006 21
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Collider International Finance Committees
mb -
b -
nb -
pb -
fb -
100 120 140 160 180 200
- - -
Higgs Mass [GeV/c2]
Total Inelastic
bb
WZ
tt-
-
HiggsWH,ZH
jets (qq, qg, gg)ob
serv
ed
WZ, Single Top, ZZ
MW ~0.05%
Observed WZ,Evidence for ZZand Single Top
Bs–Bs Oscillation,b Discovery +
Precision Meas.
MHiggs < ? GeVat 95% CL
-
Low Mass SUSY
Road to Higgs and Beyond
Mtop ~1.2%
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Collider International Finance Committees
SM Higgs Searches
LEP Tevatron LHC onlyexcl. LHC
October 27,28, 2006 23
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Collider International Finance Committees
Constraint MSSM (CMSSM)
Sven Heinemeyer, Georg Weiglein
With Electroweak precision measurements and cold dark matter density (WMAP, …)
October 27,28, 2006 24
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Collider International Finance Committees
W and Top Mass, and SM Higgs
Will Tevatron’s prediction and observation/exclusionagree with what LHC sees?
Run II2009
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Collider International Finance Committees
SM Higgs Searches at Tevatron
Tevatron Observed
Tevatron Expected
LP2007LP2007
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Collider International Finance Committees
Important Physics
• From first collisions at the LHC in Summer 2008 and closure of Tevatron September 2009 is too short for LHC detectors to wipe CDF/D0 out
– Any delay in putting the hardware together – no float now
– Delay in first beam to collisions – only three months now
– Natural time to accumulate luminosity
– Debugging detector and software
– Physics analysis
October 27,28, 2006 27
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Collider International Finance Committees
Viable Collaborations
• The collaborations should be viable through FY2009
• To ensure collaborations are viable in FY2010, we need to start working now to make sure there are enough students/post-docs and “know how”
• Early results from LHC could negatively impact the collaborations in 2010 if most folks were to decamp Should we be so lucky!!
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Collider International Finance Committees
Viable Collaborations
• Conversely, if there are delays in getting results from LHC, the Tevatron remains exciting, producing physics for students/postdocs/faculty
• In the middle, there could be a horse race to the Higgs
• To keep collaborations viable need agency support of University groups for work at the Tevatron beyond 2010
October 27,28, 2006 29
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Collider International Finance Committees
Acceptable damage
• Running in 2010 delays slightly 700kW neutrino beam capability
• Running in 2010 has modest impact on NOvA start-up (presently shut-down starts late 2010; physics run June 2011)
• Requires additional resources not to slow down the ILC R&D, Project X, or neutrino program; approximately $30M
October 27,28, 2006 30
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Conclusion
• We believe strongly that DOE should plan to run through FY2010
• An early recommendation by P5 would help the planning effort for the lab and collaborations.
October 27,28, 2006 31
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Conclusions for IFC• 2007 has been a very active year for Fermilab on
every front.• Accelerator and Detector Operations in 2007
were great• Physics Output from Tevatron Collider is
phenomenal
• Shutdown work was successfully accomplished• Accelerator Complex is starting up
• With P5 we have:– Recommendation for 2009 running– Proposed running Tevatron in 2010 – decision in 2008.
• Looking forward to a productive 2007