F1. The state of foresight in food and agriculture and the roads towards improvement

The state of foresight in food and agriculture and the roads toward improvement


Robin BourgeoisGFAR Secretariat


Background: improved foresight

“Forward-looking, anticipatory research and analysis needs to integrate a range of perspectives on key issues, making use of the best available data and interpretations from different sources and directly integrating the diverse views of farmers and other stakeholders on specific problems, so that important issues are examined through multiple ‘lenses’.”


“The need for improved foresight must be addressed by mobilizing expert analyses within countries ... and bringing together, via GFAR and the regional fora and on a coherent and regular basis, the diverse national and international initiatives ..., learning from the outcomes of the different models and perspectives employed.”

Background: improved foresight


Content

Defining foresight

What do we know?

What can we do together?


Defining foresight

“A process which combines three fundamental elements:

prospective approaches: long-term or forward-looking,

planning approaches: including policy-making and priority-setting,

participative approaches: engaging stakeholders and knowledge sources”.

A working definition for the GCARD2: Foresight = “forward-looking, anticipatory research and analysis”


Defining foresight: engaging in foresight

Knowledge (how the future could be, why) Understanding the futures

Interaction (where we want to go together) Choosing our future

Change (what can we do, how) Creating our future

“We cannot predict the future, we can create it”

scientists, governments,

companies, donors, …


Defining foresight: methods

Qualitative to Quantitative Context dependent No single/best approach Fits objective and resources, Allows participatory approaches

Methodological advances are still needed to develop credibility based on evidence,

creativity, interaction and expertise.


Defining foresight: methods

Projections and simulations based on quantitative methods

2

1Likely

Wanted

Plausible

Unwanted

Today

2025

2040

6

5

3

4Rupture

Scenarios and visioning based on qualitative methods

But “marriage” is possible…

… and needed!


Content

Defining foresight

What do we know?



What do we know? The current state of foresight in agriculture

The inventory

New challenges/priorities

Controversies

Current practices

Impact


InventoryContacts: 5000 + Answers: 1000 + Positive: 400 + Selected: 43

36 Answers: 45 Contacts:5000 +

State of Foresight Report

Feedback survey

3 Write workshops

Analysis and synthesis

38 BriefsThe Futures of

AgricultureSynthesis

What do we know : the foresight inventory



The inventory


Controversies

Current practices

Impact


What do we know: new challenges/priorities

More focus on food insecurity

The “Farming World” questions

Policies and societal values as drivers of changes


What do we know: new challenges/priorities

Explore alternatives to technology-based farm productivity

How consumers may change attitudes and behaviours

Account more for diversity



The inventory


Controversies

Current practices

Impact


What do we know: controversies

Larger more concentrated farmsSmaller more diversified farmsSomething else?

Food security ensured by: Family agriculture Large industrial farmsSomething else?

Evolution of farming patterns


Future agricultural land uses

Agricultural land expansion Agricultural land reduction

Multifunctional use Specialized use

Rural area abandonment Rural area revitalization



Future links between production and consumption

Standardization of consumption patterns and food supplied by international market versus

Regional and diversified consumption patterns supplied by local/proximity production systems



What did we learn? The current state of foresight in agriculture

The inventory


Controversies

Current practices

Impact


What do we know: current practices

Global/regional works more quantitative, less inclusive

National works more qualitative, more inclusive

Absence of LDC

Absence of FO/CSO


What did we learn? The current state of foresight in agriculture

The inventory


Controversies

Current practices

Impact


What do we know: impact

Capacity to affect stakeholders

Influence or change

Capacity to change policy and orient actions

Impact evaluation is still insufficient


Content

Defining foresight

What do we know?


Common understanding about foresight In-depth discussion and related commitments



During the GCARD

After the GCARD


What can we do together: during the GCARD

Session F1: Reflect on the state of foresight and the Global Foresight Hub

Session F2.1 and F2.2: Identify the focus of, and commit to, collective actions

Session F3.1 and F3.2 : Identify, and commit to, collective actions needed to improve partnership in foresight and develop foresight capacities


The End and a Beginning

And a special gratitude to:

• All authors of the Briefs and foresight practitioners who contributed to the inventory• ILAC working group for the foresight inventory and GCARD preparation• KIT facilitators of the write workshops• All members of the Forward Thinking Platform for their revisions and comments• All individuals who have contributed/commented/supported this work

Thank You


Which challenges for the future do you consider the most relevant for agriculture and rural development that need to be addressed now through collective action?

N=44. Open answers. Multiple answers allowed.


Question: For a better and stronger impact of foresight in decision making, resources allocation, research priorities, innovations, and policies, what kind of collective action would you be willing to join?

Documents

F1. The state of foresight in food and agriculture and the roads towards improvement