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Background Introduction
背景介绍
o U.S. investors, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is
a company with strategic aspiration,
significant growth potential and represents
expansion options in China1. Based on its
IPO closing price, with a market
capitalization of 231.4 billion, Alibaba had
surpassed Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) to
become the second largest internet
company in the world after Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG). However, after three
months, Alibaba’s market value is facing
significant challenge. Under the combined
impact of white paper published by the
State Administration for Industry and
Commerce (“SAIC”) on January 28th 2015
and Alibaba’s lower-than-expected fourth-
quarter revenue, Alibaba’s stock price
decrease by 8.78 percent on January 29th
2015, with a market capitalization loss of
more than 22 billion dollars. The white
paper states that many products sold on
Alibaba’s websites infringed on trademarks,
were banned, substandard or fake. Besides,
seven law firms have announced class
action lawsuits against Alibaba as of
February 2nd 2015. Jack Ma, executive
chairman of Alibaba, responded positively
by setting up a personal meeting with Zhang
Mao, minister of the SCIA, and promised to
“devote more resources to fight against
fakes”. The response strengthened the
confidence of U.S. investors and ended the
downward pressure on Alibaba’s stock price.
1 Damodaran, Aswath. "Alibaba: A China Story With A Profitable Ending?" Seeking Alpha. 9 May 2014. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://seekingalpha.com/article/2206153-alibaba-a-china-story-with-a-profitable-ending>.
T
Facing the “Wolves
of Wall Street”
A Special Report on
U.S.-listed Chinese
Companies
面对华尔街之狼
在美上市中国公司的
生死博弈
Author: Guan Huang, Financial Analyst,
Dragon Gate Investment Partners
Editor: Xuan Luo, Financial Analyst,
Dragon Gate Investment Partners
作者:黄冠,龙门资本金融分析师
编辑:罗璇,龙门资本金融分析师
- 1 -
对于国外投资者来说,阿里巴巴
(NYSE:BABA)是在中国的一家极具战略抱
负,有显著成长潜力的公司。以 IPO 当日
收盘价计算,阿里巴巴集团市值达到
2314 亿美元,超越 Facebook
(NASDAQ:FB),成为仅次于 Google
(NASDAQ:GOOG) 的全球第二大市值互联
网公司。可是即使是阿里巴巴这样的企业
在面临下行风险时也会措手不及。在工商
总局 2015 年 1 月 28 日发布的《关于对
阿里巴巴集团进行行政指导工作情况的白
皮书》以及 1 月 29 日阿里巴巴公布的第
四季度财务报表低于预期的共同作用下,
阿里巴巴股价 1 月 29 日当日暴跌 8.78%,
市值损失在 220 亿美元以上。截至 2 月 2
号为止,一共有 7 家律师事务所对阿里巴
巴发动了集体诉讼2。面对危机阿里巴巴
董事长马云积极应对,在与工商总局局长
张茅的会见中,承诺将加大资金、技术等
方面的投入,进一步解决现有的网络假货
难题3。此次应对也稳固了投资者的信心,
遏止了此前两天连续重跌的势头。
As Chinese Companies
attempts to enter the U.S.
market, there remain
many large obstacles
such as short selling
and legality issues.
Other companies such as
21Vianet Group
(NASDAQ:VNET), Jumei
International Holding
Limited (“Jumei”) (NYSE:JMEI)
and etc. were heavily attacked
2流年. "又两美律所宣布调查阿里巴巴 总数增至 7 家." 中国企
业网. 1 Feb. 2015. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.qiye.gov.cn/news/20150201_102365.html>. 3 "Press Releases." Alibaba Group. 25 Jan. 2015. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.alibabagroup.com/en/news/article?news=p150129a>.
by short selling investment research firms.
21Vianet Group, listed on NASDAQ, was
accused of “committing accounting and
securities fraud” by Trinity Research Group.
As a result, its stock price plunged by 35
percent before a company announcement
was published.
中国企业在想要在美国资本市场有所发展,
如何应对危机则成为了他们的头等大事。
其中世纪互联 (NASDAQ:VNET)、聚美优品
(NYSE:JMEI) 等公司曾遭遇到了卖空机构
的阻击。在纳斯达克上市的世纪互联被研
究机构 Trinity Research Group 质疑存在
“财务与证券欺诈”,其股价在公司发表
公开声明前已暴跌 35%。
Law offices filed a class action lawsuit
against Jumei International Holding Limited
after it was accused of disseminating
misleading information to public investors.
Jumei lost nearly 60 percent of its market
value from $5.5 billion on August 18th, 2014
to $1.9 billion on December 11th, 2014.
聚美优品被指控其向投资者发布了虚假的,
有误导性的声明,受到了律师事务所的集
体诉讼。其市值从 2014 年 8 月 18 日的
55 亿美元降至 2014 年 12 月 11 日的 19
亿美元,缩水 60%。
Figure1. Current Situation of U.S.-listed Chinese
Companies Attacked by Short Sellers
- 2 -
After an idle period of almost three years,
short selling investment research firms
targeted several U.S.-listed Chinese
companies in 2014. Based on incomplete
statistics, only eight percent of U.S.-listed
Chinese companies were not influenced by
short selling investment research firms as
shown in Figure 1. A large portion of those
companies exited the U.S. stock market.
在沉寂了将近三年之后,中国概念股
2014 年又陆续遭到了卖空机构的打击。
据不完全统计,如图 1 所示只有 8%被卖
空的上市公司未收到卖空机构的影响,而
很大一部分的公司则离开了美国市场4。
4 计算是基于 39 家被做空的公司得出的,其中包括新泰辉煌、
中国 VoIP 数字、新华财经媒体、金融界、美国环球资源公司、
美国超导公司、新东方、奥瑞金种业、河南平顶山泓利煤焦
有限公司、中国生物、中国新博润集团、中国高速传媒、德
尔集团、东南融通、斯凯网络、哈尔滨富气业、奇虎、恒大
地产、东方纸业、绿诺科技、中国高速传媒控股、多元水务、
嘉汉林业、展讯科技、分众传媒、网秦、天河化工、世纪互
联、神冠控股、聚美优品、双金生物、中国教育集团、天一
药业、华宝国际、中国红石集团、数百亿、普大煤业、龙腾
矿业、FAB Universal
An Explanation of Short Selling
什么是卖空
Short selling (or “short sale”) could be
recognized as a rational profit seeking
oriented behavior. Short selling can be
defined as the sale of a security that is not
owned by the seller, or that the seller has
borrowed. Short selling is motivated by the
belief that a security’s price will decline,
enabling it to be bought back at a lower
price to make a profit5.
卖空,又称沽空、做
空,是一种理性的逐
利行为,可以解释卖
出自己本不拥有的股
票,或者借来的股票。
卖空的动机来源于卖
家相信股票未来的价
格会下跌,从而在未
来以更低的价格买进
股票归还券商,以赚
取中间差价。
For example, assuming stock X is currently
priced at $20. Based on Investor A’s
judgment regarding future performance, he
believes that the stock price will go down.
As a result, the Investor borrows 100 shares
from a broker and sells them in the market.
Assuming a 50% margin requirement,
Investor A has to pay 100*20*50%=$1000
to borrow those 100 shares. To simplify the
analysis, assuming there is no maintenance
margin, $0.5 commission fee and $1
interest is required for each transaction.
5 "Short Selling Definition." Investopedia. 26 Nov. 2003. Web. 5 Feb. 2015. <http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp>.
图 1. 被做空的上市公司现状
- 3 -
Figure2. Process of Short Selling
If stock price goes down to
$15, Investor A buys 100
shares in the open market
and return it back to
broker. During the
transaction, he receives a
return of (10-15-0.5-
1)*100/1000=35%. If stock
price goes up to $25,
Investor A still has to buy
shares and give it to
broker. In this situation,
his return can be
calculated as (20-25-0.5-
1)*100/1000=-65%.
举个例子来说,假设股
票 X 目前价格为 20 元,
投资者 A 基于对股票未
来的判断,认定股票有
下跌的趋势,但是自己
手中并没有股票,所以他决定向经纪人借出 100 股并卖掉。如果初始保证金比例
为 50%,那么投资者 A 将交纳
100*20*50%=1000 元,
以借出这 100 股。为了
简化分析,假设投资人
无需追加保证金,在整
个卖空过程中需要交纳
每股 0.5 元的手续费以
及 1 元的利息。当股票
价格降到 15 元时, A 买
入股票归还给经纪人,
那么在这段时间内,他
的回报为(20-15-0.5-
1)*100/1000=35%。如果
股票价格上涨到 25 元,
X 买入股票归还给经纪
人,那么他的回报为(20-
25-0.5-1)*100/1000=-65%。
图 2.卖空流程
- 4 -
Short sales can be considered as leveraged
transactions because these trades are
usually placed on margin. Therefore, the
investor can trade more than he has to pay,
and meanwhile, bear higher risks. Short sale
itself only reflects the divergence towards
stock price among different investors, while
providing additional liquidity to the market.
Why do U.S.-listed Chinese companies
suffer such a great loss during the short
selling transaction?
由于只需交纳一部分保证金,卖空可以
被看作是杠杆交易,使投资者可
交易金额被放大的同时,也
使投资者承担了更大的风
险。卖空的本身只是反映
了投资者对股票价格意见上
的分歧,为市场信息提供了
更强的流动性。那么为什么
中国概念
股在被卖
空时损失
如此惨重呢?
Short Selling Industry Chain
卖空产业链
Short selling has become a
lucrative subset of the investment
industry in the United States, including
short selling investment research
firms, funds, and
law firms as the
graph shows. The
existence of culture
difference between China and
the United States results with some
problems in U.S.-listed Chinese
companies such as the lack of transparent
disclosure, infrequent communication with
investors, and perception of misleading
information among United States investors.
As a result, U.S.-listed Chinese companies
have become the primary target of short
selling investment research firms.
卖空在美国已经形成了一条专业的产业链,
主要是由做空机构,对冲基金以及律师事
务所三方组成。中美文化差异的存在又导
致了中国上市公司缺乏透明度,
不经常与投资人进行沟通,再加
上美国人对于某些中
国的产业理解有误,
使得中国上市公
司成为了一些海
外做空机构的首要
猎杀目标。
- 5 -
Short selling investment research firms
conduct field investigations to collect
information after they target a company.
For example, they place cameras on the
roofs of buildings near factories to calculate
products shipped during a designated
period, and hire local residents to chat with
sales staff and record inconsistencies. Short
selling investment research firms may then
exaggerate the collected information and
publish the skeptical research report. In
addition, one or two weeks in advance of
the report being published, in some cases
allied funds have already started to borrow
shares and enter into short positions.
在做空机构锁定目标之后,做空公司会进
行实地考察,搜集各种信息,例如在公司
的工厂顶楼安装摄像头,来计算出货的数
量,甚至去找目标公司的销售人员聊天,
口头谈话中出现的不准确销售数字和内容
往往会被暗中录音。负面质疑报告往往是
基于上述信息夸大而来的,而在质疑报告
发布的一两个星期前,已经有合作的做空
基金入场做好做空准备了。
After the report was published, investors
start to sell their shares, leading to stock
price slump. Targeting minority
shareholders, law firms will file a class
action for them on a contingency fee basis.
If those suits succeed, law firms will share a
large portion of benefits. When law firm are
filing class action, the action itself will
further weaken investor’s confidence, thus
lead the stock price to continue falling.
Eventually, at the cost of U.S.-listed Chinese
companies, short selling investment
research firms, funds, and law firms share
the profit.
当质疑报告发布后,股价会因投资人抛售
股票而大幅下跌。而律师事务所则会以风
险代理的方式为中小股东发起集体诉讼,
如果诉讼成功,律师事务所能够分到高额
的赔偿金作为利润。同时律师的集体诉讼
会进一步影响投资人对上市公司的信心,
从而导致股价继续下跌。最终以上市公司
受重创为代价,卖空机构,基金和律师事
务所共享利益。
A class action is a procedural device that
permits one or more plaintiffs to file and
prosecute a lawsuit on behalf of a large
group with common interests. Class action
suits can be frequently seen in the United
States, and many famous corporations such
as Google and Amazon (NASDAQ.AMZN)
have had such suits filed against them. The
power of class action lies in allowing the
claims to be aggregated into a single action
against a defendant, resulting in a surprising
amount of compensation.
集体诉讼是指多数成员彼此间具有共同利
益,由其中一人或数人为全体利益起诉。
集体诉讼在美国是一种常态,包括谷歌、
亚马逊 (NASDAQ:AMZN) 等大企业都曾遭
受过。这种诉讼的威力在于只要有一人发
起诉讼,其他所有相同利益受损者会一呼
百应,最终导致的赔偿数量非常惊人。
Figure 4 describes the average stock price
performance and trading volume of U.S.-
listed Chinese companies from fifteen days
before the short selling activities to one
year after the activities. Selection bias exists
because delisted companies are not
included into calculation (data not
available). As a result, actual performance
will be worse than the graph description.
- 6 -
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
-15 -9 -3 3 9
15
21
27
33
39
75
11
7
15
9
20
1
24
3
28
5
32
7
36
9
Vo
lum
e (
*10
,00
0)
Pri
ce (
$)
Days Before and After the Short Selling Activities
TradingVolume
Stock Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
-15 -9 -3 3 9
15
21
27
33
39
75
11
7
15
9
20
1
24
3
28
5
32
7
36
9
交易
量 (
*10
,00
0)
股票
价格
($
)
卖空行为前后的天数
交易量
股价
图 4 描绘了上市公司在卖空发生前 15 天
至卖空后一年的股票价格表现及交易量平
均变化。由于已退市及已摘牌的公司不计
入考虑,所以计
算结果存在选择
性偏差的问题,
实际表现要差于
图中描述。
Reasons on
Skeptical
Report
质疑理由
Some of the U.S.
listed Chinese
companies being
targeted were
under investigation due to their
intrinsic problems, while other were simply
in a case of misunderstanding with the U.S.
investors. Citron Research and Muddy
Water Research, considered as the main
research institutions participating in short
selling U.S.-listed Chinese companies,
frequently use
financial fraud
as the main
reason to
publish skeptical
research report.
在遭到猎杀的
中国公司中,
有因为自身存
在严重问题的,
也不乏因为美
国人没有理解
而被误杀的。
而作为做空中
国概念股的主
要机构,香橼公司和浑水公司屡以财务造
假为出发点撰写质疑报告。
Based on 19 skeptical reports from Citron
Research and Muddy Water Research, Chen
Bin and Liu Huijun summarized ten major
reasons they used to doubt on authenticity
of companies’ financial statements.
Figure4. Average Stock’s Performance Before and After
the Short Selling Activities
Figure4. Average Stock’s Performance Before and After the Short Selling Activities
图 4. 卖空前后的股票平均表现
- 7 -
基于 19 份香橼和浑水的质疑报告,陈彬、
刘会军总结了 10 大质疑公司“财务造假”
的理由6。
Among the above listed companies, RINO
International Corp. (OTCMKTS:RINO) was
delisted due to financial fraud, however
New Oriental Education & Technology
Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) did well against
Muddy Water. From these two cases, what
6陈彬、刘会军:“什么样的公司有财务造假嫌疑—来自香橼
公司和浑水公司的启示”,证券市场导报 2012 年第 6期.
did firms in short selling industry chain do
and how did Chinese companies protect
their rights and interests?
在上述遭到质疑的中国公司中绿诺科技
(OTCMKTS:RINO)就因财务造假而惨遭退市,
而新东方(NYSE:EDU)对于浑水公司的反击
则尤为精彩。那么在绿诺科技和新东方这
两个案例中,美国人怎么做空,而中国公
司又是怎么保护自己的权益的呢?
Occurrences Reasons
11 Gross profit is much higher than industry average
10
Documents filed to State Administration for Industry & Commerce of the People’s Republic of China and State Administration of Taxation are different from ones filed to Securities and Exchange Commission
8
Concealment of related party transactions or revenue highly relied on related party transactions
8 Share transactions between major stockholders and management
8 Relatively obscure auditing firm with bad reputation
7 The honesty of management team is open to doubt
7 Has changed companies’ auditing firm or CFO
5 Over-outsourcing, revenue reply on sales agents or broker
4 More complex company structure than it really needed
3 Stock issue price much lower than expected
出现次数 质疑理由
11 远高于同行业的毛利率
10 报给工商和税务部门的文件
与报给 SEC 的不一致
8 有隐瞒关联交易的情形或收
入严重依赖关联交易
8 可疑的主要股东和管理层股
票交易
8 审计事务所名不经传且信誉
不佳
7 管理层的诚信值得怀疑
7 更换过审计事务所或 CFO
5 过度外包、销售依赖代理或
收入通过中间商
4 复杂难懂的超过商业实际需
要的公司结构
3 超低价发行股票 Figure5. Ten Major Reasons Companies have
Suspicion of Financial Fraud
图 5. 十大质疑公司“财务造假”的理由
- 8 -
Case Analysis
案例分析
RINO International Corp.
大连绿诺环境工程科技有限公司
RINO International Corporation (“RINO”),
incorporate in 1984, engages in designing,
manufacturing, installing, and serving
wastewater treatment, flue gas
desulphurization equipment, and high
temperature anti-oxidation system for iron
and steel manufacturers. RINO was
launched on OTCBB
through a reverse
merge with Jada
Mountain Corp., an
existing U.S. clean shell
company. Following the
reverse merge, RINO
was listed on NASDAQ
on July 13, 2009 for
fund-raising purpose.
成立于 1984 年的大连
绿诺环境工程科技有
限公司(简称绿诺科技)致力于中国钢铁
行业的废水处理、烟气脱硫脱硝器材以及
高温抗氧化系统的开发、工程设计、产品
制造、以及安装工作。为了能募集扩张资
金,绿诺科技反向收购了一家名为 Jade
Mountain Corp 的在美国场外交易市场的
壳公司,于 2009 年 7 月 13 日转板进入纳
斯达克市场。
RINO was doubted on November 10, 2010
and several important events happened in
the following month.
Day 1: Muddy Water Research published a
30-page report, which caused RINO shares
to decline. The closing price of RINO
decreases by 15.07% to $11.1 per share.
Muddy Water discovered fraud, including
the fact that RINO published false revenue
and gross profit information in its annual
report and that documents filed to State
Administration for Industry & Commerce of
the People’s Republic of China and State
Administration of Taxation are different
from ones filed to Securities and Exchange
Commission.
Day 2: RINO responded by putting out a
statement7 promising to prompt an internal
audit. Stock price fell by 15.78 percent on
that day.
Day 6: RINO published the third quarter 10-
Q report before the market opened. Many
indicators showed on the report were lower
than expected. Stock price fell by 31.41
percent during the day to $7.55 per share.
Day 8: The Law office Sohmer & Stark, LLC
announced a class action lawsuit charging
7 "RINO International Corp. Research." Muddy Waters Research. 10 Nov. 2010. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/company/rino/>.
Figure6. RINO’s Stock Performance under Short Selling Crisis
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Trad
ing
Vo
lum
e (
*10
,00
0)
Pri
ce (
$)
Days After the Short Selling Activity
Trading Volume
Stock Price
- 9 -
RINO International with securities fraud.
The complaint alleged that contrary to the
company’s annual report filed with the SEC
for fiscal 2009 which reported $193 million
of revenue, the company’s annual report
filed with the Chinese authorities reported
only $11 million of revenue for 2009. The
SEC issued a trading suspension8 against
RINO during the day and stock price fell by
14.97 percent to $6.07 per share.
Day 10: Mr. Zou Dejin, the Chief Executive
Officer of RINO International, admitted that
the company did not in fact enter into two
of the six purposed contract9. Several rating
agencies downgrade their rating to “sell”.
Day 24: RINO received a delisting notice
from NASDAQ.
Day 30: RINO was moved to OTC Pink Sheet
Market, stock price plunged by 48.1 percent
to $3.15 per share.
8 "SEC Charges China-Based Executives in Scheme to Overstate Revenues and Divert Money for Personal Use." SEC.gov. 15 May 2013. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1365171514322#.VMFQ3UfF8sQ>. 9 "Form 8-K for RINO International Corp." SEC.gov. 17 Nov. 2010. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1394220/000114420410062163/v203177_8k.htm>.
绿诺科技在 2010 年 11 月 10 日遭到了卖
空机构的质疑,而在随后短短的一个月内,
股价迅速跌至谷底。
第一天:浑水公司发布长达 30 页的报告,
质疑其销售额,公司毛利率以及上交工商
部门和美国证券交易所的报告存在差异等
问题,股价当日跌幅 15.07%,至 11.1 美
元
第二天:绿诺科技对质疑作出回应,并开
始内部审查,股价当日跌幅 15.78%
第六天:绿诺科技盘前公布第三季财报显
示多项指标低于预期,股价当日跌幅
31.42%,至 7.55 美元
第八天:美国律师事务所 Sohmer & Stark,
LLC 对绿诺科技发动集体诉讼,称其向美
国证券交易所递交的 1.93 亿美元营收与
向中国审计机构递交的 1100 万美金严重
不符,使得投资者利益受到损害。盘中交
易被停止,当日跌幅
14.97%,至 6.07 美元
第十天:绿诺科技首
席执行官邹德军先生
承认浑水公司质疑的
6 份合同中有 2 份造
假,在此期间多家评
级机构下调绿若科技
至“卖出”
第二十四天:绿诺科
技收到纳斯达克交易
所的退市通知
第三十天:绿诺科技被清理至粉单市场,
股价暴跌 48.1%至 3.15 美元
0
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交易量
股票价格
图 6. 绿诺科技面临做空危机时的表现
- 10 -
第1天 •新东方宣布简化股权结构,以进一步加强公司治理
第7天 •调整VIE结构引发调查,当日股价暴跌34%
第8天 •浑水公司抛出质疑报告报告,当日股价暴跌35%
第9天 •新东方董事长俞敏洪进行回应,当时股价反弹17.89%
第10天
•包括董事长俞敏洪,首席财务官谢东萤在内的公司高层管理人员决定使用5000万美金的个人资金在未来三个月内回购美国存托股票,当日股价上升15.27%
第14天 •美国律师事务所Glancy Binkow & Goldberg LLP宣布对新东方发起集体诉讼
第74天 •富国银行发布对新东方的正面分析报告,当日股价上升8%至$14.92
Behind the short selling of RINO
International, many Chinese companies
share the same situation after they go
public through reverse mergers. These
companies did not reach the liquidity and
financial requirements to be listed in the
main market, but have strong needs of
fundraising. As a result, they go to the main
market through the “reverse takeover +
graduation” model. In addition, “excessive
packaging” is needed to meet main
market’s liquidity and financial
requirements. By IPOing this way, these
companies cost less and can also avoid a
series of registration procedures. However,
under close attention of short selling
investment research firms, those Chinese
companies often become their primary
targets.
在绿诺科技被阻击的背后反映出了很多中
国公司在美国反向收购的问题,这些公司
急于上市以获得扩张的资金,同时却没有
达到主板市场对于上市公司的要求,只能
通过“反向收购+转版上市”并加以“包
装”的方式耗资更少,耗时更短的进入主
板市场。而在卖空公司的密切关注下,这
些公司往往首先成为了猎杀对象。
New Oriental Education & Technology
Group Inc.
新东方教育科技集团
As the largest provider of private education
services in China, New Oriental Education &
Technology Group Inc. (“New Oriental”)
offers educational programs including
English and foreign language training,
overseas and domestic test preparation
courses, primary and secondary school
education, and etc. New Oriental was listed
in NYSE on September 7, 2006 and became
the first oversea listed education institution
in China.
下表呈现了以新东方宣布简化股权结构为起点,新东方在整个卖空行为中的重大事件汇总
- 11 -
Day 1
•New Oriental announced that it further strengthened the corporate structure by simplifying the shareholding structure.
Day 7
•Due to the VIE structure adjustment, SEC was involved in the investigation. Once the news was released, EDU shares dropped by 34 percent during the day.
Day 8
•Muddy Water released skeptical report rates New Oriental as “strong sell”, stock price plunged by 35 percent during the day.
Day 9
•Stock price rebounded 17.89 percent after CEO Mihong Yu rebutted Muddy Water’s accusations.
Day 10
•New Oriental announced that members of its senior management team, including its chairman and chief executive officer Michael Michael Yu, director, president and chief financial officer Louis T. Hsieh have informed the Company of their intention to use their personal funds to purchase the Company's American depositary shares ("ADS") on the open market for an aggregate amount up to a maximum of $50 million within the next three months. Stock price raised by 15.27 percent during the day.
Day 14
•Glancy Binkow & Glodberg LLP announced class action lawsuit against New Oriental.
Day 74
•Wells Fargo released a positive report about EDU that caused the stock to rise about eight percent to $14.92 per share
The Below Chart Summarizes important events happened during
the short selling activity, starting from New Oriental’s corporate
structure change.
新东方教育科技集团(简称
新东方)是中国最大的私人
教育服务提供商,其教育
项目包括英语及外文培训,
海外及国内测试备考,以及
中小学教育等。新东方于
2006 年 9 月 7 日在美国纽
约证券交易所上市,成为
中国第一家海外上市的教
育机构。
In the report, Muddy Water
claimed EDU has numerous
franchisees while its CEO
said that company owns all
of its stores. Other
accusations include that the
abnormal high gross margin
wasn’t realistic and that
EDU’s Beijing operation has
prepared fraudulent
financial statement in terms
of tax reduction10.
在质疑报告中浑水公司宣
称新东方有大量特许加盟
店,却自称所有店面归新
东方自有。其他质疑包括
毛利率远高于行业平均水
平以及新东方所获得的税
收减免不合理等。
10 Block, Carson C. "Initiating Coverage on EDU – Strong Sell." Muddy Waters Research. 18 July 2012. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/edu/initiating-coverage-edu/>.
- 12 -
0
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量 (
*10
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)
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价格
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)
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股票价格
However, from New Oriental’s response,
franchisee fees only represent 0.009
percent of the revenue in 2010 and 0.045
percent of the revenue in 2011. New
Oriental considered the franchise fees as
immaterial information, which is different
from what Muddy Water described as “a
fundamental aspect of its business model”,
and therefore did not show on the financial
statements11.
Although New
Oriental should have
stated the franchisee
programs in its
quarterly report
instead of leaving it
completely as
immaterial, this is an
example of the
exaggerations
sometimes seen in
short seller research.
然而在新东方的回应
中,加盟费只分别占
2010 年和 2011 年总
收入的 0.009%和
0.045%。之所以未从
季报中体现只因所占
比例太小,属于细化
项目,远不是浑水公
司所描述的是其商业
模式的基础。虽然新
东方在进行披露时不
够严谨,没有将加盟
费体现在季报当中,
但是从这个案例中可
以发现卖空公司不负
责任的“夸大”行为,
真正将“粉刺”夸大成了“癌症”。
With New Oriental’s fast response point by
point, investors rebuild their confidence in
the company. As a result, the stock price of
New Oriental gradually recovered and
Muddy Water finally failed to prove its
allegations. Michael Yu, CEO of New
11 "Press Release." New Oriental Education & Technology Group. 19 July 2012. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://investor.neworiental.org/phoenix.zhtml?c=197416&p=irol-newsArticle_Print&ID=1716414>.
图 7. 新东方自卖空以来的表现
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Figure7. EDU’s Stock Performance since Short Selling Crisis
Stock price dived an accumulated 57.32
percent after Muddy Water Research
released skeptical report
浑水公司发布质疑报告,
累计跌幅达 57.32%
- 13 -
Oriental, summarized that to fight against
short selling investment research firms,
U.S.-listed Chinese companies have to make
sure there are no errors in financial
statements. Based on the correct
information, it is crucial to hire top-ranked
accounting firms and investor relation
companies to assist with IPO.
正是由于新东方在第一时间准确地一一回
应了浑水公司的质疑,才打消了市场对新
东方的恐慌。在这之后,东方的股价逐步
恢复,卖空公司终于失手了。依照俞敏洪
的总结,能打赢这场翻身仗首先是确认自
己没有问题,而在这基础上,请一流的会
计事务所,投资者关系公司则是非常必要
的12。
Major Responding Measures
应对的要点
Many U.S.-listed Chinese companies focus
more on their business development and
believe that stock price would response on
their daily operations. However, in the
current U.S. capital market, confidence in
those Chinese stocks had already been
undermined because many companies were
caught committing financial fraud. In
addition, U.S.-listed Chinese companies are
less likely to communicate with investors
during a crisis, resulting in a passive position.
For those U.S. investors, they consider “no
response” as acknowledgement in most of
the situations. Therefore investors are more
likely to dump their shares, leading to stock
price declines.
12苏东. "俞敏洪:新东方曾面临生死存亡 公司不好就退市."
和讯网. 25 Oct. 2012. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://newshttp://stock.hexun.com/2012-10-25/147222531.html.imeigu.com/a/1351178947135.html>.
很多在美国上市的中国公司一心只想把自
身的运营做上去,相信把企业做好,股价
自然会随之上涨。但在美国的资本市场里
运作中,由于之前多次出现问题,中国概
念股现在面临着更深层次的不信任问题。
当危机发生,中国概念股公司很少与投资
者进行有效沟通,让自己和投资者都陷于
被动。对于美国股民来说不回应往往就意
味着默认了。不明就里的投资者就很容易
抛售股票,导致股价一泻千里。
Responding in a fast and appropriate
manner is important. But to achieve a
sustainable rapid development in U.S.
capital market, Chinese companies have to
ensure that no financial fraud exists in their
statements. These companies should
maintain an excellent performance and at
the same time strengthen their
communication with U.S. investors, and
establish deeper trust among each other.
如何回应危机固然重要,想要在美国资本
市场获得长足的发展的前提则是自身不能
作假,保证财务清白。然后在保持良好的
业绩的同时加强与美国投资人之间的沟通
互动,建立更多共识和信任。这样无论做
空公司发布多么负面的报告,只要有投资
人坚定的支持,卖空方只会是跳梁小丑,
不足为惧。
- 14 -
Latest News
最新动态
China has begun limiting access to
corporate filings after short-sellers used
them to highlight accounting fraud. In
addition, the Chinese government became
more and more likely to investigate and
prosecute those who use companies’
information for short-selling purpose. As a
result, it is more risky for those short-selling
investment research firms to use related
information. However, people can always
find a way to cope with policies. Three
listed companies Tianhe Chemicals Group
Limited (HKG:1619), 21 Vianet Group, Inc.,
and Shenguan Holdings (OTCMKTS:SHGXY)
suffered significant share price losses after
they were attacked by short-seller research
company anonymous analytics on
September 2014. Moreover, Geoinvesting
published a research report “Who is Really
Being Played”13 on China Mobile Game
(NASDAQ: CMGE) on January 15, 2015. As a
result, its stock price dropped by 7.83
percent during that day.
随着中国政府开始限制获取国家工商行政
管理总局的文件,以及越来越原意调查和
起诉出于商业目的的利用信息人士,卖空
机构利用这些文件来发动质疑的风险正在
逐年增加。但是正可谓“上有政策,下有
对策”,2014 年 9 月先后有天河化工
(HKG:1619)、世纪互联和神冠控股
(OTCMKTS:SHGXY)三家上市公司遭到了匿
名方式的唱空披露,从而导致股价大跌。
而 2015 年 1 月 15 日中国手游
13 "China Mobile Games - CMGE - Who Is Really Being Played?" GeoInvesting. 15 Jan. 2015. Web. 4 Feb. 2015. <http://www.geoinvesting.com/china-mobile-games-cmge-who-is-really-being-played/>.
(NASDAQ:CMGE) 遭到 GeoInvesting 的调查
报告《中国手游—谁真的被愚弄了?》导
致首日跌幅达到 7.83%。
No matter how short selling investment
research firms make “innovation”, the key
to not being influenced by short sellers is to
make sure no financial fraud exists
meanwhile build long-term positive
relationship with investors.
但是无论唱空机构如何“创新”,坚守自
身财务清白的同时和美国投资人建立长期
积极的沟通关系才是保持股价不受波动的
必要条件。
U.S.-listed Chinese companies should take
notice including:
Maintain disclosure accuracy and
transparency, make sure
documents filed to State
Administration for Industry &
Commerce of the People’s Republic
of China and State Administration
of Taxation are the same as the
ones filed to Securities and
Exchange Commission
Attach great importance to
disclosures including earning
forecast and other information that
related to investment decision. Get
in touch with investors on a regular
basis, and build long-term trust with
them.
Stay alert with short sellers and
keep an eye on any abnormal
behavior in the market. Once
attacked, timely response and
communication with investors
becomes particularly important.
- 15 -
在美国上市的中国公司应该注意以下几点:
保持财务披露的精确性,确保汇
报给工商和税务部门和美国证券
交易所文件的一致性
重视包括盈利预测和其他影响投
资决定的信息披露,定期拜访机
构投者者,建立长期信任的关系
随时保持对做空的警惕预案,随
时监测市场上是否有异常行为。
一旦遭受攻击,及时的回应以及
与投资人迅速的沟通将变得尤为
重要
About Dragon Gate Investment
Partners
Headquartered in New York City’s midtown
Manhattan, Dragon Gate Investment Partners is
a leading investor relations firm that improves
the transparency and consistency of
international-oriented Chinese companies. From
annual reports to webcasting, Dragon Gate
helps the companies deliver the right message
to the right audience. By targeting the investor
via market intelligence database, Dragon Gate
improves the companies' trading volume and
share valuation.
The Dragon Gate team consists of investment
bankers, Chartered Financial Analysts, media
personnel, and IT experts. Our professionals
have long standing relations with fund
managers, investment bankers, and financial
regulators. Our broad range of experience has
led to a deep knowledge of US markets and
regulations. As an integrated group, Dragon
Gate has a deep understanding of the culture
difference between the US and China.
关于美国龙门资本
美国龙门资本设⽴在纽约曼哈顿中城,是⼀家全球领
先的、以国际投资公关管理(IRM)见长、专 门协
助中国企业进⼊全球资本市场、并为已经在美国上市
的中国公司构建最佳投资者关系的⾦融服 务公司。
龙门资本由众多有投资银⾏、传媒背景的专业⼈员所
构成,他们中⼤多数都拥有注册⾦融 分析师(CFA)以
及⼯商管理硕⼠(MBA)。⾻⼲团队成员在纽约华尔街
⼯作多年,深谙美国市场体 系及各类⼯商政策,并
与市场监管机构、投资银⾏与对冲基⾦的⾼层⼈员保
持紧密的商业往来。作 为⼀个群体,龙门资本对中
美⽂化和国内外企业现实情况有深刻的认知。