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Facing up to the risks
of impacts of Near-
Earth Objects
Debbie Lewis MSc FEPS
We may never encounter a natural disaster more violent than a storm. And so we become complacent, relaxed, unconcerned. But in the history of nature, the record is clear. Worlds have been devastated. On the landscapes of other planets where the records of the past have been preserved, there is abundant evidence of major catastrophes. Even on the Earth, even in our own century, bizarre natural events have occurred (Sagan, 1981:92).
• What is the hazard?
• Sample cases
• What is everybody doing?
• What is ESA doing?
• Conclusions/questions
Outline
Meteorite (10 cm)
• Near-Earth Object (NEO): Any asteroid coming closer than 0.3 AU to the Earth
• 1 AU = Astronomical Unit = distance Sun-Earth = 149.6 Mio km
• Threatening object: Any asteroid that may hit the Earth
• Risk list: A list containing all threatening objects
Definitions/terminology
500 m
NEO Itokawa
(credit: JAXA)
Known number of Near Earth
Asteroids
Near Earth Objects population
(From JPL – NEO site)
Estimated Number of Asteroids and NEOs
(Data from NEODyS or JPL NEO site, Aug 2013)
• > 600 000 known Asteroids
• > 10 000 known NEOs
• > 400 NEOs in risk list (NEOs with small but non-zero impact probability within next 100 years)
• Estimated number of known NEOs:
– 90% of NEOs with diameter larger than 1 km (≥ 860 NEAs + 94 near-Earth Comets of a total of ≈ 1050)
– 15-25% of NEOs larger than 140 m (total ≈ 20,000 - 30,000)
– < 2.0% of NEOs larger than 30 m (total ≈ 500,000 - 1,000,000)
Most NEOs are still unknown!
NEO impacts: frequency and effects
• Asteroids (and Comets) hit Earth with very high velocities.
• typical: 10 - 20 km/s, 20 times faster than a gun bullet!
NEO diameter Impact energy
[Megatons TNT] (1g TNT ≡ 4184 J)
Typical interval [Years]
Effect
2 mm 1 per hour
(visible for each location)
Nice meteor
3 m 0.002 1 Fireball, Sudan Event, Meteorites reach ground
10 m 0.08 10 Big fireball, fear, shock wave, 5-fold energy of Hiroshima bomb
40 m 5 500 Tunguska explosion or Crater
140 m 220 10,000 Regional destruction, Tsunami
500 m 10,000 200,000 Europe-wide destruction
1 km 80,000 700,000 Millions dead, global effects
10 km 80 million 100 million End of human civilisation
Age (years) or date Impactor Size Location Consequences
1 K-T mass biota boundary
between Cretaceous and
tertiary geological periods 65
Million years ago
10-15km
diameter
asteroid or
comet
200km crater
discovered
Chicxulub,
Pueblo
Yucatan
Peninsula Gulf
of Mexico
Estimate extinction of 70% of
animal and plant species.
Penetrative tsunamis.
Cessation of photosynthesis and
climatic cooling
2 50,000 years ago Meteorite 150 ft
in diameter
Barringer
Crater Arizona
Creation of a crater 1 mile
across, 2.4 miles in
circumference and >550 ft in
depth
3 4,000 years ago Meteorite Kaali Crater,
Estonia
Formation of 100 m crater
NEO impacts: frequency and
effects
Tunguska
30 June 1908 - 105 years ago
2000 km2 of Taiga were destroyed in Siberia
Barwell Meteorite 24.12.65
Carancas, Peru
Crater with
14-m diameter
formed by
impact from
space in 2007.
Chelyabinsk Impact Event • Location: 55.2o N, 61.4o E (near Chelyabinsk, Russia)
• Date/time: 15 Feb 2013, 03:20 UT (09:20 LT)
• Diameter of object: 19 m, mass ≈ 12000 t
• Entry velocity: 18.6 km/s, entry angle: 20o from surface
• Total energy: equiv. to 480 kt TNT
• Altitude of main explosion: 30 – 25 km
• Max brightness of fireball: m ≈ -30 (about 30 x sun brightness)
• 7300 buildings damaged
• > 1500 people injured
• > 100 kg of meteorites found (usually small pieces, asteroid was ordinary chondrite)
• Asteroid could not be seen approaching (too close to sun direct.) and was too faint for prior detection during the last 10 years
Uncertainty
Uncertainty exists as to the extent of the scale of a NEO impact for six reasons: 1. The NEO population is not sufficiently
understood 2. Inability to determine impact levels for objects
between 50m and 140m in diameter 3. Unknown composition of NEOs 4. Variable collision effects 5. Effects may exceed local and regional areas and
have global effects 6. The size and type of NEO which would cause
these effects
Risk Treatment
Four risk treatment methods have been
identified to mitigate the NEO hazard:
•Characterisation
•Civil protection
•Planetary defence
•Establishment of a research programme
Current State of Preparedness
• Kinetic Impactor
• Gravity Tractor
• Nuclear Device
• Civil Protection
Evacuation or
Shelter?
Discussions Within UN COPUOS
• Action Team 14 of UN
COPUOS has
developed a response
strategy
• Adopted in Jun 2013
• Two groups are to be
installed:
– International Asteroid
Warning Network
(includes interface to
emergency response)
– Space Missions
Planning Advisory Group
Extant Guidance - UN System
• Increasing public awareness
• Obtaining commitment from public authorities
• Stimulating interdisciplinary and inter-sector
partnership and expanding risk-reduction
networking at all levels
• Enhancing scientific research of the causes
of natural disasters and the effects of natural
hazards and related technological and
environmental disasters on societies
The Spaceguard Centre
http://spaceguardcentre.com/
NEO Coordination Centre – ESRIN, Italy
SSA-NEO
Coordination Centre -
inaugurated 22 May
2013
The SSA-NEO web portal
• Federates some key
European assets:
– NEODyS = orbit
computation,
prediction, risk list
– Physical properties
database
– Priority list = showing
objects in need of
observations
http://neo.ssa.esa.int
2015 IAA Planetary Defense Conference:
Assessing Impact Risk & Managing Response
April 13-17th 2015
Frascati, Italy
http://www.pdc2015.org/