Factors & Predictors ofFactors & Predictors ofLife ExpectancyLife Expectancy

Marissa NeillyMarissa Neilly

ObjectiveObjective

To research and better understand To research and better understand what the predictors of life what the predictors of life expectancy areexpectancy are

Hypothesis: levels of nutrition and Hypothesis: levels of nutrition and healthcare are the most important healthcare are the most important factors or predictorsfactors or predictors

Global Life Expectancy OverviewGlobal Life Expectancy Overview

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,0001,800,000

2,000,000

Number of People(X1000)

30-35

35-40

40-45

45-50

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

75-80

80-85

Life Expectancy (Years)

Global Life Expectancy Frequency Distribution(192 countries, 6.3 billion total population)

Global Life Expectancy Overview Global Life Expectancy Overview Cont…Cont…

NutritionNutrition

Relationship Between Life Expectancy and Nutrition

y = 0.0182x + 13.214

R2 = 0.6003

0

1020

3040

5060

7080

90

1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Nutrition- Kilocalories/person/day

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

HealthcareHealthcare

Relationship Between Healthcare and Life Expectancy

y = 8.2748Ln(x) + 27.683

R2 = 0.7388

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Healthcare Cont…Healthcare Cont…

y = 0.1896x + 45.422

R2 = 0.4835

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy

y = -7E-05x + 75.088

R2 = 4E-06

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Lif

e E

xp

ec

tan

cy

Water QualityWater Quality

Relationship Between Water Quality and Life Expectancy

y = 0.8961x + 13.832

R2 = 0.4099

020

4060

80100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Access to Clean Water Index Number 0-100; lower scores indicate water scarcity and poor water provision

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Income Income

Relationship Between Income and Life Expectancy

y = 0.0007x + 56.178

R2 = 0.447

0102030405060708090

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Income Per Capita

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

PollutionPollution

Relationship Between Pollution and Life Expectancy

y = 0.6874x + 62.913

R2 = 0.0701

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20

Amount of CO2 Emmisions Per Capita

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

EducationEducation

Relationship Between Education and Life Expectancy

y = 2.7302x + 32.135

R2 = 0.4892

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20

Education- Average Length of Schooling (Years)

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Variable Country (X) ValuePredicted Life

ExpectancyReported Life

ExpectancyDifference

(years)

Kilocalories/day per capita

Zambia 1890 45.2 32.4 12.8

Swaziland 2365 56.5 34.4 22.1

Dominican Republic 2308 55.4 66.7 11.3

Romania 3361.8 74.4 70.5 4.1

Netherlands 3374.1 74.6 78.3 3.7

Czech Republic 3064.8 69.7 75.4 5.7

Healthcare(Physicians per

100,000)

Zambia 6.9 43.7 32.4 11.3

Swaziland 17.6 51.4 34.4 17

Dominican Republic 188 71 66.7 4.3

Romania 188.7 71 70.5 0.5

Netherlands 329.1 75.7 78.3 2.6

Czech Republic 343.4 76 75.4 0.6

Education (average number of years in school per capita)

Zambia 7 51.2 32.4 18.8

Swaziland 10 59.4 34.4 25

Dominican Republic 12 64.9 66.7 1.8

Romania 12 64.9 70.5 5.6

Netherlands 16 75.8 78.3 2.5

Czech Republic 14 70.4 75.4 5

Income (International monetary units per working male per year, 000’s)

Zambia 1041 47.9 32.4 15.5

Swaziland 7227 64 34.4 29.6

Dominican Republic 9694 66.5 66.7 0.2

Romania 8311 65.2 70.5 5.3

Netherlands 38266 77.9 78.3 0.4

Czech Republic 20370 72.6 75.4 2.8

ConclusionsConclusions

The best predictors for life The best predictors for life expectancy are:expectancy are:

• NutritionNutrition• HealthcareHealthcare• IncomeIncome• EducationEducation

This information can be used to This information can be used to improve livesimprove lives