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Fair Taxation
in a Mobile World
EEAG Report on the European Economy 2020
Torben Andersen,
Giuseppe Bertola,
Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa,
Clemens Fuest,
Harold James,
Jan-Egbert Sturm,
Branko Uroševic
||
Corona
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 2
|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 3
Number of Corona-Infected Patients Worldwide
Source: CSSE at Johns Hopkins University
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03
Asia Europe Rest
Total
|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 4
Worldwide Corona Cases by Status
& Implied Mortality Rate
Source: CSSE at Johns Hopkins University
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03
Active Deaths Recovered Mortality rate Recovery rate
Total
|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 5
Worldwide Deaths from Coronavirus
Source: CSSE at Johns Hopkins University
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
22.01 25.01 28.01 31.01 03.02 06.02 09.02 12.02 15.02 18.02 21.02 24.02 27.02 01.03 04.03 07.03
Total
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Change
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Global EPU Index
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is calculated as the GDP-weighted average of monthly EPU
index values for the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain,France, Netherlands, Russia, India, China, South Korea, Japan, Ireland and Australia using GDP data incurrent prices from the IMF World Economic OutlookDatabase.Source: Baker et al. (2016), www.policyuncertainty. com; OECD; last accessedon 8 March 2020.
Change over previous year's quarter in %
© CESifo
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Investment Growth in the OECD
Index (2010 = 100)
Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the OECD
Euro area crisis
Europeanimmigration
crisis
Brexit vote US elections Trade war,
Brexit
||
The Car Industry
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 7
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vehicles sales
Industrial production
Source: Wards Intelligence; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG Calculations
Change over previous year's 3 -month moving average in %
© CESifo
World Growth in Vehicles Sales and Industrial Productiona
a Both variables are measured as 3month moving averages before calculating growth rates.
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF
International Trade
9
|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF
World Trade
Quellen: OECD/CPB 10
71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16-20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25% (Q-o-Q, annualised)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Index (2010=100)
2.2%
6.6%
|| 09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF
Industrial Production and Trade in the World
Source: CPB
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Developed world Developing and emerging world
Index (2012=100)
11
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
World trade Industrial production in the world
Index (2012=100)
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Growth in real industrial production
Source: Eurostat; OECD; National Statistics; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG calculations.
Change over previous year's quarter in %
© CESifo
World Economic Growtha and Growth in Industrial Production
Change over previous year's month in %
a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) weighted aggregate year-over-year real GDP growth rate.
Real GDP growth
||
World Economic Outlook
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 13
||
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108
Leadin
g G
lobal B
aro
mete
r (I
ndex)
Coincident Global Barometer (Index)
Recovery
CoolingEconomic low
Economic high
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0 1 2 3 4 months
Index
Coincident Global Barometer
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 14
Global Economic Barometers
Source: KOF/FGV
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5Change
Embargo: 10 March 2020, 14:00 CET
CoronaGreat Recession
Jan. 2020Jan. 2020
Jan. 2019
Jan. 2016
Jan. 2017
Jan. 2018
Mar. 2020
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Deposit rate (ECB, euro area) Bank rate (BoE, United Kingdom)
Target policy rate (BoJ, Japan) Federal target rate (Fed, United States)
Source: European Central Bank; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Bank of England; Bank of Japan; last accessed on 8 March 2020.
Central Bank Interest Rates
%
© CESifo
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 16
gu
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United Kingdom United States Euro area Japan China
The synthetic euro area benchmark bond refers to the weighted average yield of the benchmark bond series
from each Economic and Monetary Union member.
Source: Datastream; last accessed on 8 March 2020.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
%
© CESifo
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 17
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Inflation in the world
Inflation in the euro area
Forecast based on the assumption that oil prices remain steady from January 2020 onwards.Source: Eurostat; National Statistics; Energy Information Administration;
last accessed on 9 March 2020; EEAG calculations.
%
© CESifo
Inflation in the World and Oil Price MovementsChange over previous year's month in %
Forecastperiod
%
Oil price changes in US dollars
Fair Taxation
in a Mobile World
EEAG Report on the European Economy 2020
Torben Andersen,
Giuseppe Bertola,
Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa,
Clemens Fuest,
Harold James,
Jan-Egbert Sturm,
Branko Uroševic
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 19
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Taxes/Subsidies, Corrections Consumer-oriented services
Business-oriented services Trade & GastronomyConstruction Industry
GDP
a Gross domestic product at market prices (prices of the previous year). Annual percentage change and
growth contributions.
Source: OECD; last accessed on 2 February 2020; EEAG calculations.
Sector Contributions to GDP Growtha in the Euro Area
© CESifo
Change over previous year's quarter in %, percentage points
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 20
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Construction Consumers Industry Retail trade Services
? 3-month averages of arithmetic means of selected (seasonally adjusted) balances on business andconsumer tendency survey questions. Balances are the differences between the percentages of positiveand negative replies. These are subsequently normalized to have an average of 0 and variance of 1 for theperiod from 1985 onward.Source: European Commission; last accessed on 8 March 2020; EEAG calculations.
Confidence Indicatorsª for Different Sectors in the Euro Area
Standardized balance
© CESifo
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 21
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Asia and Pacific Europe Western Hemisphere World
3-month moving averages of indicators with an in -sample average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10.Source: KOF/FGV.
Global Economic BarometerCoincident composite indicator
© CESifo
Index
Embargo: 10 March 2020, 14:00 CET
09.03.2020Swiss Re / EEAG / KOF 22
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
DJ Industrial Average FTSE 100
Euro STOXX 50 Nikkei 225
Shanghai SE Composite
Source: Datastream; last accessed on 8 March 2020.
Developments in International Stock Markets from a Euro Area Perspective
Index (2010 = 100)
© CESifo
Stock market indices outside the euro area are first converted into euros.
Basic Copyright Notice & Disclaimer
©2020 This presentation is copyright protected. All rights reserved. You may download or print out a hard copy for your private or internal use. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this presentation without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.
This presentation is for information purposes only and contains non-binding indications. Any opinions or views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Swiss Re. Swiss Re makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, comprehensiveness, timeliness or suitability of this presentation for a particular purpose. Anyone shall at its own risk interpret and employ this presentation without relying on it in isolation. In no event will Swiss Re be liable for any loss or damages of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation.
Basic Copyright Notice & Disclaimer
©2020 This presentation is copyright protected. All rights reserved. You may download or print out a hard copy for your private or internal use. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivatives of this presentation without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.
This presentation is for information purposes only and contains non-binding indications. Any opinions or views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Swiss Re. Swiss Re makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, comprehensiveness, timeliness or suitability of this presentation for a particular purpose. Anyone shall at its own risk interpret and employ this presentation without relying on it in isolation. In no event will Swiss Re be liable for any loss or damages of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, arising out of or in connection with the use of this presentation.