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Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013

FOOD & AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2009

World fertilizer trends and outlook to 2013 2

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to: Chief Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch Communication Division FAO Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to: [email protected] © FAO 2009

______

Table of contents

Preface................................................................................................................................................. 3 Executive summary.............................................................................................................................. 4 The agricultural context........................................................................................................................ 5 Demand................................................................................................................................................ 5 Supply ................................................................................................................................................ 10

Nitrogen.......................................................................................................................................... 10 Phosphate ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Potash ............................................................................................................................................ 10

Supply and demand balances ........................................................................................................... 11 The regional fertilizer situation........................................................................................................... 12

Africa .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Latin America ................................................................................................................................. 12 North America ................................................................................................................................ 12 East Asia ........................................................................................................................................ 13 South Asia ...................................................................................................................................... 13 West Asia ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Eastern Europe & Central Asia ...................................................................................................... 13 Western & Central Europe ............................................................................................................. 14 Oceania .......................................................................................................................................... 14


Preface This report presents the world nitrogen, phosphate and potassium fertilizer medium-term supply and demand projections for the period 2008–2013. In June 2009, FAO issued its annual invitation to the Working Group of Fertilizer Organizations to review the prospects for fertilizer demand, supply and balances through to 2013. The Working Group comprised:

EFMA European Fertilizer Manufacturers’ Association FAI Fertiliser Association of India IFA International Fertilizer Industry Association IFDC An International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development Imphos World Phosphate Institute K+S K+S KALI GmbH TFI The Fertilizer Institute FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

In October 2006, the FAO/Fertilizer Organizations Working Group adopted a new protocol for the preparation of nutrient supply/demand balances based on the work of the IFA Production and International Trade Committee in 2005/06. The main objectives of the revised protocol were to take into account the resilient surplus between production and consumption and to update the parameters used for the computation of supply and losses. Definitions of the terms used and their relative criteria are listed below:

• Supply: effective capacity, representing the maximum achievable production. Supply is computed from the “nameplate capacity” (theoretical capacity), multiplied by the highest operating rate achieved in the previous 5 years. For new plants, a ramp up of the operating rates was established for the first 3 years of operation, ranging from 85 to 100 percent. Supply represents maximum potential production, also referred to as effective capacity.

• Fertilizer demand: the ability or the willingness of farmers to buy fertilizer at a given point in time. It is calculated on the basis of the probable consumption in one calendar year, taking into account the merge between two agricultural years.

• Non-fertilizer demand: consumption for non-fertilizer use, referred to as industrial use.

• Losses: the unavoidable losses during the life cycle of a product, from production to final consumption. The extent of loss is estimated as a percentage of total fertilizer and non-fertilizer demand.

• Balance: the difference between supply and demand (fertilizer demand + non-fertilizer demand). Balance is a medium-term indicator of potential changes in fertilizer nutrient demand and supply by region. Changes in installed supply capacity, operating rates and demand vary annually.

• Balance/demand ratio: the percentage of surplus or deficit reported in relation to the demand. All fertilizer references are in terms of plant nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphate (P2O5) and potash (K2O). On the graphs, nutrients may be referred to as N, P and K. Fertilizer demand and supply data refer to the calendar year. The contribution made by the Working Group of Fertilizer Organizations and the special efforts made by Philippe Dugast in bringing this publication to press are gratefully acknowledged.


Executive summary Following several years of continuous growth, the global economy entered a recession. In 2008, attention focused on soaring food prices and food security. These issues are now partially concealed by the economic crisis, but this does not mean that the problem of undernourishment has been solved. With respect to fertilizers, after 5 years of sustained demand and sometimes limited supply, world fertilizer is likely to have a large potential surplus through 2013, unless demand rises beyond expectations. Demand is forecast to increase by 24 million tonnes (compared with 2008). The nitrogen sector will profit from new capacities announced for 2012. The global balance/demand ratio will double, increasing from 5 percent (at present) to 9 percent (in 2013). Some regions, such as West Asia, Africa and Latin America, will reinforce their export position, but others will remain in deficit (South Asia) or even increase their deficit (North America). Phosphate sector: the global balance/demand ratio will remain stable at around 8 percent, until 2013, but some regions will remain in deficit (Latin America) or even increase their deficit (South Asia and Western and Central Europe). Potash sector: the global balance/demand ratio will increase from 25 percent (at present) to 35 percent (in 2013), thanks to the contribution of North America and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA), while some regions will remain in deficit (Africa, Latin America, East Asia and Oceania) or even increase their deficit (South Asia). Note that the increase in global nutrient potential surpluses within the period does not mean that regions can afford fertilizers according to their real needs.

Potential nutrient balance (thousand tonnes)

Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Africa N 1 448 1 957 1 963 2 537 2 749 3 729P2O5 4 580 4 274 4 390 4 836 5 374 5 714

K2O - 454 - 472 - 500 - 527 - 545 - 382

East Asia N - 1 939 - 1 120 - 471 - 78 943 662P2O5 133 507 1 205 1 692 1 890 2 049

K2O - 7 319 - 6 958 - 7 426 - 7 642 - 7 651 - 7 492

East Europe N 14 060 13 883 13 805 13 563 14 095 14 308

and Central Asia P2O5 2 323 2 306 2 285 2 343 2 298 2 235

K2O 10 082 10 316 10 748 11 397 12 151 12 702

Latin America N 1 087 984 602 509 1 574 2 342

and the Caribbean P2O5 - 2 931 - 2 680 - 3 018 - 3 090 - 3 104 - 3 099

K2O - 3 770 - 3 660 - 3 939 - 4 195 - 4 486 - 4 452

North America N - 6 024 - 6 841 - 7 354 - 7 645 - 7 935 - 8 226P2O5 4 682 4 591 4 277 4 152 4 055 3 959

K2O 8 935 9 484 9 435 10 100 11 350 12 127

Oceania N - 119 - 128 - 168 - 206 - 167 - 294P2O5 - 162 - 114 - 122 - 151 - 174 - 194

K2O - 336 - 302 - 320 - 335 - 350 - 359

South Asia N - 6 209 - 6 369 - 6 234 - 6 722 - 6 753 - 6 753P2O5 - 5 236 - 5 681 - 5 815 - 6 182 - 6 553 - 6 941

K2O - 3 653 - 3 482 - 3 598 - 3 826 - 4 050 - 4 275

West Asia N 5 793 6 267 6 602 8 781 9 560 10 919P2O5 679 570 527 647 1 275 1 450

K2O 3 024 3 051 3 268 3 392 3 495 3 467

West and N - 1 789 - 1 624 - 2 170 - 2 509 - 2 902 - 3 259

Central Europe P2O5 - 1 498 - 1 150 - 1 370 - 1 527 - 1 682 - 1 769

K2O 859 1 557 1 320 1 120 912 790

World N 6 309 7 010 6 576 8 231 11 163 13 429P2O5 2 570 2 624 2 360 2 721 3 381 3 404K2O 7 370 9 534 8 989 9 484 10 827 12 126

Table 1 World and regional balances 2008 to 2013


The agricultural context Following several years of good health, the world economy entered a severe recession. What began as a financial crisis during the summer of 2008 had become a serious worldwide economic crisis by the end of the year. All the advanced economies fell into recession during the first half of 2009, and it is likely that this situation will continue until the end of the year, even if there are some signs of a slight improvement. Emerging economies have also been severely hit by the depression. According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009, despite the significant impact of the global crisis on all sectors of the economy, agriculture should come off relatively lightly, thanks to the recent period of relatively high incomes and the relatively income-inelastic demand for food. The average prices of agricultural commodities for the next 10 years are still projected at the levels of the previous decade at least (crop prices are projected to be 10–20% higher in real terms relative to 1997–2006, while for vegetable oils real prices are expected to be over 30% higher). Following an economic recovery, most of the growth in agricultural production and consumption will continue to come from developing countries. This is the case particularly for livestock products where the driving forces are income and population growth, and considering the trend towards higher animal protein diets and continuing urbanization. Furthermore, according to a recent FAO study based on longer-term population and income projections, global food production needs to increase more than 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050 (nearly 100% in developing countries), compared to average 2005–07 levels, in order to meet the challenge of a 40 percent increase in the world population and to raise average food consumption to 3 130 kcal per person per day by 2050. Of the growth in crop production, 90% (80% in developing countries) is due to come from higher yields and increased cropping intensity with adequate use of fertilizers, the remainder from land expansion.

Demand The soaring prices of commodities in 2008 highlighted that the fertilizer-to-crop price ratio is a key factor in determining the behaviour of farmers purchasing fertilizers. Though the ratio between international fertilizer prices (urea and di-ammonium phosphate as major indicators) and grain prices is currently lower than in 2007, farmers are exhibiting a wait-and-see attitude. Given the high fertilizer prices of mid-2008, some farmers used greater amounts of organic nutrient sources, with potentially long-term impacts on crop nutrition practices. Farmers who do wish to use fertilizers may be constrained in some countries by the lack of affordable credit. Fertilizers, like other commodities, have been affected by the economic crisis. According to IFA, aggregate world fertilizer demand in 2008/09 is estimated to be down by 5 percent compared with the previous year: from 168 to 160 million tonnes of nutrients. Nitrogen is least affected, because drastic reductions in N fertilizer application rates have immediate negative consequences for yield; this is not the case with P and K fertilizers. Drops in consumption have been registered in all regions except Africa, South Asia and EECA (in these latter two regions farmers benefit from strong government support for increased fertilizer use). The most significant drops in volume are in Western and Central Europe, North America and Latin America.


This study is based on the assumption of a recovery beginning in 2009/10. Given the 2-year decline, it is difficult to express average rates of increase; they depend on the point of reference. Two sets of data are therefore presented, according to the reference year. First method - Comparing 2013 (end of forecast period) with 2007 (the reference year).

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

annual increase rate N

annual increase rate P

annual increase rate K

Africa

Latin

Am

erica

Car

ibbe

an

Nor

th A

mer

ica

East A

sia

Sou

th A

sia

Wes

t Asia

Easte

rn E

urop

e & C

entra

l Asia

Wes

tern

& C

entra

l Eur

ope O

cean

ia

Wor

ld

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%




Africa

Latin

Am

erica

Car

ibbe

an

Nor

th A

mer

ica

East A

sia

Sou

th A

sia

Wes

t Asia

Easte

rn E

urop

e & C

entra

l Asia

Wes

tern

& C

entra

l Eur

ope O

cean

ia

Wor

ld

Africa

Latin

Am

erica

Car

ibbe

an

Nor

th A

mer

ica

East A

sia

Sou

th A

sia

Wes

t Asia

Easte

rn E

urop

e & C

entra

l Asia

Wes

tern

& C

entra

l Eur

ope O

cean

ia

Wor

ld

Table 2

annual increase rate

Continent Region N P2O5 K2O

Africa Africa 3.8% 4.3% 3.3%

America Latin America Caribbean 1.2% 0.9% 1.4%

North America 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%

Asia East Asia 1.5% 1.9% 1.5%

South Asia 3.4% 6.0% 7.5%

West Asia 1.2% -0.2% 0.4%

Europe Eastern Europe & Central Asia 5.6% 6.5% 5.1%

Western & Central Europe -0.7% -3.1% -2.5%

Oceania Oceania 0.0% -2.1% -0.6%

World 1.7% 2.8% 3.2%

Second method - Taking 2010 as the start of the recovery period, the rates of increase represent the slope of the fitting curve from 2009 onwards. The figures are as follows:

Global NPK nutrients consumption (Mt)

150

160

170

180

190

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global NPK nutrients consumption (Mt)

150

160

170

180

190

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Afri

ca

Latin

Am

erica C

arib

bean

North

Am

erica

Eas

t Asi

a

Sou

th A

sia

West

Asia

Eas

tern

Eur

ope &

Cen

tral A

sia

West

ern

& C

entra

l Eur

ope

Oce

ania

World




Table 3

annual increase rate

Continent Region N P2O5 K2O

Africa Africa 4.6% 6.0% 4.6%

America Latin America Caribbean 4.5% 5.7% 5.6%

North America 1.2% 3.0% 5.3%

Asia East Asia 1.6% 2.5% 5.3%

South Asia 2.6% 4.2% 5.3%

West Asia 2.8% 4.0% 5.8%

Europe Eastern Europe & Central Asia 5.8% 7.5% 3.8%

Western & Central Europe 1.8% 6.4% 6.2%

Oceania Oceania 2.5% 3.2% 4.3%

World 2.2% 3.8% 5.3%

This approach takes into consideration the period of depression (2008–09) and the potential of a strong recovery beginning in 2010. At global level, a comparison with last year’s forecast points to a sustained increase for P and K and a more moderate increase for N. The latter is the result of revised figures for East Asia as China approaches “mature” market status with regard to N fertilizers. The forecast for world consumption in 2013 is some 185 million tonnes of nutrients, compared with the 2008 forecast of 192 million tonnes for 2012 (from a starting figure of 175 million tonnes in 2008). At regional level, most increase in demand during the next 5 years will continue to come from Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Latin America. Fertilizer consumption in Africa is expected to pick up in some countries in response to government initiatives to establish fertilizer subsidy schemes, as well as in response to development initiatives reported by IFDC and FAO. East Asia and South Asia together will account for over one-half of the total growth of global fertilizer consumption. In East Asia, the growth in regional demand is expected to decline as China approaches “mature” market status for N and P fertilizers. Recycling nutrients from organic material is increasingly considered. Fertilization is more balanced than in the past. The increase in rate of fertilizer consumption is likely to be lower for the outlook period than for the past decade.


Demand is forecast to remain high in South Asia, as large amounts of fertilizer are required to ensure food security through intensification. However, according to FAI, the forthcoming revision of the fertilizer subsidy scheme in India could impact the outlook. Fertilizer demand in West Asia is only expected to rise modestly, since the potential for increasing crop production in the region is limited and conditioned by weather conditions and is thus very uncertain. The expansion of fuel ethanol production from maize in North America remains the principal driving force behind regional agriculture capable of sustaining the overall fertilizer demand. According to TFI, the region is expected to recover relatively quickly from the significant drop recorded in 2008/09 (particularly with regard to P and K). Fertilizer demand in Latin America is expected to remain depressed in 2009. Recovery is forecast to start in 2010, driven by South American countries (Brazil and Argentina) strengthening their position in the international agricultural market and, to a lesser extent, by Central America (Mexico) where there is a significant increase in fruit and vegetable production. Thanks to the potential to convert large areas of idle land back to cropping, in the medium term Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CIS in general, Russia in particular) can provide cereals and oilseeds to the international market. Fertilizer consumption in the region is therefore forecast to increase steadily in response to a favourable policy context and to the potential for increasing production over a relatively short period. In Oceania, agriculture has barely recovered from two consecutive drought-affected years. Consumption is expected to recover slowly (subject to drought conditions) and reach a level at the end of the outlook period comparable to the period 2007–08. Table 4

Region N P2O5 K2O Total

Africa Africa 2008 2.5 0.9 0.4 3.8

2013 3.3 1.2 0.5 4.9

America Latin America Caribbean 2008 5.9 4.5 4.6 15.0

2013 7.2 5.7 5.7 18.5

North America 2008 13.0 4.1 3.8 20.9

2013 14.0 4.7 4.9 23.6

Asia East Asia 2008 40.0 14.1 8.1 62.2

2013 43.5 16.1 10.2 69.8

South Asia 2008 19.5 7.5 3.5 30.5

2013 22.2 9.4 4.1 35.7

West Asia 2008 2.9 1.0 0.3 4.2

2013 3.4 1.3 0.4 5.1

Europe East Europe & Central Asia 2008 3.6 0.9 1.2 5.6

2013 4.6 1.2 1.4 7.2

West & Central Europe 2008 11.2 3.0 3.5 17.7

2013 11.4 3.0 3.7 18.1

Oceania Oceania 2008 1.1 1.1 0.3 2.6

2013 1.2 1.2 0.4 2.8

World 2008 99.9 37.0 25.8 162.6

2013 110.6 44.0 31.2 185.8

Regional and subregional fertilizer consumption 2008-2013 (Mio t)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Afri

ca

Latin

Am

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Car

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Nor

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Sou

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Afri

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variation 2008 to 2013

consumption 2008

Mt nutrients

Regional and sub-regional changein world Fertilizer consumption 2008-2013

West Asia 4%

Western & Central Europe 2%

North America 12%

Africa 5%

Oceania 1%

Eastern Europe & Central Asia 7%

Latin America & Caribbean 15%

East Asia 32%

South Asia 22%

Regional and subregional contribution to changein world Fertilizer consumption 2008-2013

Compared with last year’s outlook, less weight is given to East and South Asia (55% vs 65%), and more share is given to North America (12% vs 6%) and EECA (7% vs 4%).


Supply Figures for supply are provided by IFA for ammonia and potash, and by Imphos and IFA for phosphoric acid. Note that Capacities are “nameplate” figures (theoretical capacities) officially given by producers, while Supply represents the maximum achievable production facing a new demand (taking into account the unavoidable dysfunctions in production, logistics adjustments etc.); in no case do they refer to the current production.

Nitrogen According to IFA, global ammonia capacity is projected to increase by 20 percent, from 149 million tonnes of N in 2008 to 179 million tonnes in 2013. Two-thirds of this increase will come from new units, the remaining third will be the result of revamping activities. Global ammonia capacity is expected to increase at an average rate of 6 million tonnes of N per year, but the forecasted figure for 2012 alone is almost 8 million tonnes. In terms of regional distribution, most of the growth in capacity will occur in East Asia, West Asia, Latin America and Africa.

Phosphate According to Imphos and IFA, world phosphate rock capacity is projected to reach 248 million tonnes in 2013, representing an overall growth of 30 percent compared with 2008. Several projects for new mines or capacity expansions by current producers have been delayed due to rising costs and delays in integration with new downstream production. Rock supply is projected to increase in East Asia, Africa, Latin America, West Asia and Oceania. Figures for phosphate rock are not reported herein. Between 2008 and 2013, global phosphoric acid capacity is forecast to increase by 8.5 million tonnes and reach 53.5 million tonnes of P2O5. Close to 40 new MAP, DAP and TSP units (mostly DAP) will be constructed in ten countries, including 18 units in China. New facilities are planned in Africa, West Asia, East Asia and Latin America.

Potash Market conditions in recent years and strong demand prospects in the medium term have prompted many prospective producers to invest in exploration and capacity development programmes. According to IFA, there are numerous potash projects in over 20 countries, but only a small number will be implemented during the next 5 years. Global potash capacity is forecast to increase from 40 million tonnes of K2O in 2008 to 54 million tonnes of K2O in 2013. This additional capacity will come mostly from Canada, Russia and China, and to a lesser extent from West Asia, Latin America and Africa.

West Asia 23%

Western & Central

Europe 0%

Latin America

Caribbean 12%

Africa 12%

Oceania 0.5%

Eastern Europe &

Central Asia 6%

North

America 0%

East Asia 34%South Asia 10%

West Asia 23%

Western & Central

Europe 0%

Latin America

Caribbean 12%

Africa 12%

Oceania 0.5%

Eastern Europe &

Central Asia 6%

North

America 0%

East Asia 34%South Asia 10%

Regional and sub-regional contribution to changein global Ammonia supply 2008-2013

West Asia 12%

Western & Central

Europe 0%

Latin America

Caribbean 9%

Africa 19%

Oceania 0%

Eastern Europe &

Central Asia 3%

North

America 0%

East Asia 55%

South Asia 2%

Regional and sub-regional contribution to changein global Phosphoric Acid supply 2008-2013

West

Asia 5%

Western & Central Europe 0%

Latin America

Caribbean 4%

Africa 2%Oceania 0%Eastern Europe &

Central Asia 27%

Eastern Europe &

Central Asia 27%

North

America 42%

East Asia 20%

South Asia 0%

Regional and sub-regional contribution to changein global Potash supply 2008-2013


Supply and demand balances

At global level, unless demand increases beyond expectations, development projects in supply capacities, especially at the end of the projection period for N and K, will lead to large potential surpluses of fertilizer. During the outlook period, the balance/demand ratio remains stable for P2O5 (8%) and increases markedly for N (from 5% to 9%) and K2O (from 25% to 35%). Table 5 : World and regional balances 2008 to 2013

Potential nutrient balance (thousand tonnes)

Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Africa N 1 448 1 957 1 963 2 537 2 749 3 729P2O5 4 580 4 274 4 390 4 836 5 374 5 714

K2O - 454 - 472 - 500 - 527 - 545 - 382

East Asia N - 1 939 - 1 120 - 471 - 78 943 662P2O5 133 507 1 205 1 692 1 890 2 049

K2O - 7 319 - 6 958 - 7 426 - 7 642 - 7 651 - 7 492

Eastern Europe N 14 060 13 883 13 805 13 563 14 095 14 308

and Central Asia P2O5 2 323 2 306 2 285 2 343 2 298 2 235

K2O 10 082 10 316 10 748 11 397 12 151 12 702

Latin America N 1 087 984 602 509 1 574 2 342

and the Caribbean P2O5 - 2 931 - 2 680 - 3 018 - 3 090 - 3 104 - 3 099

K2O - 3 770 - 3 660 - 3 939 - 4 195 - 4 486 - 4 452

North America N - 6 024 - 6 841 - 7 354 - 7 645 - 7 935 - 8 226P2O5 4 682 4 591 4 277 4 152 4 055 3 959

K2O 8 935 9 484 9 435 10 100 11 350 12 127

Oceania N - 119 - 128 - 168 - 206 - 167 - 294P2O5 - 162 - 114 - 122 - 151 - 174 - 194

K2O - 336 - 302 - 320 - 335 - 350 - 359

South Asia N - 6 209 - 6 369 - 6 234 - 6 722 - 6 753 - 6 753P2O5 - 5 236 - 5 681 - 5 815 - 6 182 - 6 553 - 6 941

K2O - 3 653 - 3 482 - 3 598 - 3 826 - 4 050 - 4 275

West Asia N 5 793 6 267 6 602 8 781 9 560 10 919P2O5 679 570 527 647 1 275 1 450

K2O 3 024 3 051 3 268 3 392 3 495 3 467

Western and N - 1 789 - 1 624 - 2 170 - 2 509 - 2 902 - 3 259

Central Europe P2O5 - 1 498 - 1 150 - 1 370 - 1 527 - 1 682 - 1 769

K2O 859 1 557 1 320 1 120 912 790

World N 6 309 7 010 6 576 8 231 11 163 13 429P2O5 2 570 2 624 2 360 2 721 3 381 3 404K2O 7 370 9 534 8 989 9 484 10 827 12 126

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Africa

Eas

t Asia

Wes

t Asia

Oce

ania

Wor

ld

N

P2O5

K2O

Mio t nutrient Nutrient balance in 2013

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Sou

th A

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Eas

tern

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ope &

Cen

tral A

sia

Latin

Amer

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& C

aribbe

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Wes

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&

Cen

tral E

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e


The regional fertilizer situation

Africa Africa will increase its role as a major N exporter with the new capacities to be implemented in Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria. Africa will also strengthen its position as a net exporter of P2O5, with new projects in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. The projects for potash in the Congo at the end of the period will not be sufficient to compensate for the K2O deficit. Table 6

Africa - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 5 118 4 430 2 532 450 1 448 7 995 5 836 889 501 133 4 580 0 0 69 385 - 454

2009 5 911 5 125 2 710 458 1 957 8 145 5 620 938 549 141 4 274 0 0 75 398 - 472

2010 5 974 5 307 2 878 466 1 963 8 185 5 893 1 033 630 160 4 390 0 0 75 425 - 500

2011 6 869 6 029 3 019 473 2 537 8 545 6 409 1 064 679 170 4 836 0 0 81 446 - 527

2012 7 167 6 371 3 142 480 2 749 8 785 7 028 1 152 692 190 5 374 0 0 81 464 - 545

2013 8 614 7 510 3 264 517 3 729 9 000 7 650 1 201 939 204 5 714 370 185 87 480 - 382

Latin America New N developments in Mexico and Venezuela will confirm the region’s position as exporter, despite an increase in demand (the balance/demand ratio increasing from 15% to 26%). New capacities or reactivations in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela will compensate for the increase in P2O5 consumption. The deficit will then remain stable in the region. With regard to K2O, developments in Brazil, Chile and Argentina will not compensate for the increase in consumption. Table 7

Latin America - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 8 628 8 272 5 912 1 273 1 087 2 045 1 861 4 492 1 086 786 - 2 931 1 075 982 142 4 609 - 3 770

2009 8 879 8 245 5 937 1 324 984 2 309 2 010 4 447 999 756 - 2 680 1 195 1 036 141 4 555 - 3 660

2010 9 130 8 496 6 395 1 499 602 2 309 2 089 4 923 1 021 837 - 3 018 1 255 1 141 149 4 931 - 3 939

2011 9 623 8 891 6 699 1 683 509 2 539 2 273 5 221 1 030 888 - 3 090 1 255 1 141 154 5 182 - 4 195

2012 11 498 10 257 6 933 1 750 1 574 2 739 2 446 5 441 1 034 925 - 3 104 1 255 1 141 160 5 467 - 4 486

2013 12 830 11 288 7 170 1 776 2 342 3 799 2 713 5 662 1 113 963 - 3 099 2 695 1 438 165 5 725 - 4 452

North America No change in N and P2O5 production is projected, increasing North America’s dependence on N imports (balance/consumption ratio varying from -34% to -42%). The region will remain an exporter of P2O5, despite an increase in fertilizer consumption (ratio varying from 90% to 67%). Important potash expansion projects are expected in Canada, exceeding the increase in K2O regional consumption, and consequently the positive balance will increase significantly. Table 8

North America - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 13 050 11 760 13 029 4 756 - 6 024 9 911 9 860 4 092 1 086 0 4 682 15 840 13 802 1 044 3 822 8 935

2009 13 107 11 403 13 258 4 986 - 6 841 9 919 9 850 4 169 1 090 0 4 591 16 010 14 419 1 053 3 883 9 484

2010 13 121 11 415 13 588 5 181 - 7 354 9 919 9 850 4 450 1 123 0 4 277 16 525 14 927 1 070 4 422 9 435

2011 13 121 11 415 13 716 5 344 - 7 645 9 919 9 850 4 552 1 147 0 4 152 17 774 15 768 1 080 4 588 10 100

2012 13 121 11 415 13 844 5 506 - 7 935 9 919 9 850 4 646 1 149 0 4 055 21 194 17 186 1 088 4 749 11 350

2013 13 121 11 415 13 972 5 669 - 8 226 9 919 9 850 4 739 1 151 0 3 959 21 467 18 131 1 095 4 909 12 127


East Asia The regional N deficit will revert to annual surpluses, thanks to the increase in ammonia/urea capacities in China. China will become more self-sufficient in P2O5 following large developments dedicated principally to DAP production. In addition to the sustained increase in consumption, large projects for potash in China will contribute to limiting the deficit situation in K2O (balance/demand ratio varying from -76% to -63%). Table 9

East Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 57 158 47 383 40 009 9 313 - 1 939 13 418 11 678 14 066 1 411 3 933 133 2 567 2 311 1 548 8 081 - 7 319

2009 60 123 49 311 40 813 9 618 - 1 120 14 476 12 733 14 573 1 474 3 821 507 3 277 2 859 1 572 8 245 - 6 958

2010 62 519 51 278 41 570 10 179 - 471 15 826 14 240 15 003 1 552 3 521 1 205 3 480 2 986 1 626 8 785 - 7 426

2011 64 734 52 984 42 286 10 776 - 78 16 485 15 324 15 383 1 585 3 336 1 692 3 750 3 359 1 676 9 325 - 7 642

2012 67 599 55 197 42 897 11 357 943 17 157 16 108 15 748 1 619 3 150 1 890 4 618 3 821 1 717 9 755 - 7 651

2013 68 142 55 963 43 511 11 790 662 17 257 16 794 16 095 1 628 2 978 2 049 5 160 4 427 1 728 10 191 - 7 492

South Asia The development of N capacities will accompany demand, thus the deficit will remain more or less constant during the forecast period. Capacity expansion projects for phosphoric acid will be limited compared with the high increase in demand. The region will thus continue to be a major P2O5 importer. No potash supply is available; the K2O deficit will therefore strictly follow demand. Table 10

South Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 15 408 14 205 19 512 902 - 6 209 2 121 1 463 7 482 227 1 010 - 5 236 0 0 106 3 547 - 3 653

2009 16 135 14 650 20 048 971 - 6 369 2 146 1 481 7 996 245 1 080 - 5 681 0 0 121 3 361 - 3 482

2010 16 664 15 313 20 436 1 110 - 6 234 2 150 1 688 8 331 255 1 083 - 5 815 0 0 117 3 480 - 3 598

2011 16 969 15 662 21 014 1 371 - 6 722 2 150 1 688 8 696 261 1 087 - 6 182 0 0 128 3 698 - 3 826

2012 17 581 16 225 21 587 1 390 - 6 753 2 150 1 688 9 060 268 1 087 - 6 553 0 0 136 3 914 - 4 050

2013 18 233 16 832 22 174 1 410 - 6 753 2 150 1 688 9 439 276 1 085 - 6 941 0 0 144 4 131 - 4 275

West Asia New ammonia capacities are expected in Iran (Islamic Republic of), Qatar and Saudi Arabia, resulting in potentially large N surpluses in the region. Developments in phosphoric acid projects in Saudi Arabia and Jordan will contribute to strengthening the region’s status as P2O5 exporter. Expansion projects of potash production in Israel and Jordan will increase the region’s K2O surplus. Table 11

West Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 10 433 9 231 2 933 505 5 793 2 235 1 675 1 001 85 90 679 3 420 3 420 83 313 3 024

2009 11 615 9 875 3 054 554 6 267 2 235 1 675 1 120 85 101 570 3 570 3 452 88 313 3 051

2010 11 615 10 355 3 131 622 6 602 2 235 1 675 1 169 85 105 527 3 965 3 692 94 331 3 268

2011 14 003 12 713 3 221 711 8 781 2 455 1 845 1 212 95 109 647 4 020 3 849 99 358 3 392

2012 14 927 13 617 3 319 739 9 560 3 955 2 570 1 266 130 101 1 275 4 020 3 975 105 375 3 495

2013 16 568 15 104 3 418 767 10 919 3 955 2 800 1 315 140 105 1 450 4 020 3 975 115 392 3 467

Eastern Europe and Central Asia The large N surplus will remain stable since some expansions of capacity will be balanced by increasing demand. The region will remain a leading N exporter.


P2O5 surplus is projected to remain stable since capacity increases will follow the growth in demand. Massive potash expansions are expected in Russia. Although rising demand is forecast, a potentially large K2O surplus may emerge. Table 12

Eastern Europe & Central Asia - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 21 023 19 235 3 587 1 588 14 060 4 426 3 080 880 194 317 2 323 11 905 11 304 71 1 150 10 082

2009 21 244 19 168 3 644 1 641 13 883 4 451 3 140 924 238 328 2 306 12 195 11 587 71 1 200 10 316

2010 21 429 19 338 3 826 1 707 13 805 4 506 3 185 996 252 349 2 285 13 245 12 076 78 1 250 10 748

2011 21 470 19 400 4 062 1 774 13 563 4 713 3 350 1 073 305 370 2 343 13 495 12 781 84 1 300 11 397

2012 22 819 20 253 4 315 1 842 14 095 4 733 3 371 1 161 306 395 2 298 15 195 13 592 91 1 350 12 151

2013 23 511 20 814 4 585 1 921 14 308 4 758 3 388 1 249 322 418 2 235 15 360 14 200 98 1 400 12 702

Western and Central Europe According to EFMA, no major change in N production, combined with a slight increase in demand (fertilizers + non-fertilizers), will enhance the region’s status as net N importer (balance/demand ratio varying from -11% to -19%). P2O5: due to the absence of new projects and a somewhat flat demand projection, the region’s deficit will differ little from the current situation. K2O: no major capacity change is expected, thus potential surplus will depend on demand, forecast to recover from the present situation in 2013. Table 13

Western & Central Europe - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 16 508 14 589 10 974 5 404 - 1 789 2 322 1 578 2 758 769 452 - 1 498 5 590 4 624 532 3 233 859

2009 16 190 14 224 10 182 5 666 - 1 624 2 112 1 446 2 123 799 327 - 1 150 5 590 4 624 534 2 534 1 557

2010 16 183 14 289 10 511 5 948 - 2 170 2 112 1 446 2 330 842 356 - 1 370 5 590 4 651 553 2 777 1 320

2011 16 210 14 337 10 679 6 167 - 2 509 2 112 1 446 2 491 860 377 - 1 527 5 590 4 651 570 2 961 1 120

2012 16 210 14 348 10 847 6 404 - 2 902 2 112 1 446 2 651 875 399 - 1 682 5 590 4 651 584 3 155 912

2013 16 210 14 348 10 960 6 648 - 3 259 2 112 1 446 2 747 877 410 - 1 769 5 590 4 651 598 3 263 790

Oceania No change is expected in N and P2O5 capacities. Demand remains constant, therefore the region will remain in deficit for N, P2O5 and K2O. Table 14

Oceania - N, P2O5, K2O nutrient supply, demand and balance

NH3

Capacity

(as N)

NH3

Supply

N Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

N

Balance

H3PO4

Capacity

(as P2O5)

H3PO4

Supply

P Fert.

Cons.

non

Fertilizer

Demand

non

H3PO4

Fert.cons

.

P2O5

Balance

Potash

Capacity

(as K2O)

Potash

Supply

(as K2O)

non

Fertilizer

Demand

K Fert.

Cons.

K2O

Balance

2008 1 656 1 647 1 106 660 - 119 600 528 1 146 37 493 - 162 0 0 7 329 - 336

2009 1 656 1 647 1 079 695 - 128 600 540 1 084 36 466 - 114 0 0 6 297 - 302

2010 1 656 1 647 1 119 696 - 168 600 540 1 098 36 472 - 122 0 0 6 314 - 320

2011 1 656 1 647 1 155 697 - 206 600 540 1 147 37 493 - 151 0 0 7 328 - 335

2012 1 786 1 768 1 176 759 - 167 600 540 1 188 37 511 - 174 0 0 7 343 - 350

2013 1 786 1 779 1 191 883 - 294 600 540 1 222 37 526 - 194 0 0 7 352 - 359

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