Far North Queensland region: a demographic profile...Far North Queensland region: a demographic profile Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Infrastructure and Planning

Far North Queensland region: a demographic profile Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Infrastructure and Planning 2008 update An overview of the population and housing trends for Far North Queensland planning region.

Contents Introduction 3

Population change 1976–2007 4

The current demographic and social situation 8

Overall pattern 8

Visitors 9

Non-private dwellings 10

Indigenous population 11

Age distribution 13

Household structure 14

Mobility of the population 16

Indicators of socio-economic disadvantage 17

Indicator of crowding in housing provision 18

Specific social and economic indicators of importance to planning 20

The current housing situation 27

Structure of housing 27

Current trends in residential supply 30

The future demographic situation 32

Projected population growth, 2006–26 32

Projected age distribution of the population, 2026 32

Projected household structure in 2026 35

Summary 36

Conclusions 37

Appendices 39

1. Urban centres and localities, by type of settlement 40

2. Specific social and economic indicators of importance to planning 41

3. Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQPR, low series

projections, 2006–26 51

4. Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQPR, medium series projections, 2006–26 52

Introduction This report provides information on population and housing trends for Far North Queensland planning region (FNQ planning region).

The following sections outline:

• the population change in the area in the past 30 years • the current characteristics of the population • the housing situation • current projections of change affecting the shires and cities.

For comparative purposes, the region is broken up internally in three ways in this report.

Firstly, the region is divided into five sub-regions, comprised of aggregations of the local government areas existing prior to 2008. The sub-regions are the previous City of Cairns, the previous Douglas Shire, the new Cassowary Coast Regional Council, the new Tablelands Regional Council, and the two Aboriginal Councils as a single sub-region. While the local government areas have changed, information can continue to be collected and analysed using the statistical local area structure. As Wujal Wujal and Yarrabah have only been separately identified for statistical purposes since 2002, with little information relating directly to them before this, they have often been included with their previous local government areas, namely Douglas Shire (Wujal Wujal) and Cairns (Yarrabah).

Secondly, the region is broken up into types of settlement, based on definitions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The centres making up the categories are set out in Appendix 1.

Thirdly, in some cases, information is shown for the previous local government structure, especially where this is not readily aggregated to the new sub-regions.

It is important that the correct population figure is used for the correct purpose. For instance, using information relating to the census count may produce very different results to that obtained from using data relating to the estimated resident population (ERP). In 2006, the ERP includes an adjustment to Census totals to allow for under-counting in the Census, estimated to be 7 per cent.

In FNQ planning region, the population count for Cairns included over 26,000 visitors, while the greatest proportional impact was in Douglas, with the ERP only 65 per cent of the count figure. By comparison, the other sub-regions had very little difference between the two totals.

Within the Census information, it is important to differentiate between numbers based on usual residence and ones based on place of enumeration. The latter reports the snapshot situation recorded on Census night, while the former relocates Australian visitors back to where they live. This is especially important in areas such as FNQ planning region where visitors are in large numbers and have a significant impact on the economy and pressures on issues such as infrastructure provision.

A further potential cause of confusion is the use of ERP (based on a 30 June estimate) and the Census Usual Residence figures, which are for a September date.

In this report, the sources of statistics are clearly identified.

Figure 1: Sub-regions and local government areas within Far North Queensland region

Population change 1976–2007 The estimated resident population for census years since 1976 and the most recent estimates are shown in Table 1. In this period Queensland experienced major continuous growth, influenced by interstate migration. The experience in the region was varied, reflecting the conflicting impact of rural change and decline, growth of urban services and tourism.

TABLELANDS

DOUGLAS

CAIRNS

CASSOWARYCOAST

Yarrabah (S)

Hinchinbrook (S)Dal rymple (S)

Etheridge (S)

Carpentaria (S)

Cook (S)

Douglas (S)

Cardwell (S)

Mareeba (S)

Eacham (S)

Cairns (C)

Atherton (S)

Johnstone (S)

Herberton (S)

Wujal Wujal (S)

CassowaryCoast (R)

Cairns (R)

Tablelands (R)

0 25 50 75

Kilometres

LegendSub Region BoundaryNew LGA BoundaryOld LGA Boundary

Table 1: Change in estimated resident population, 1976–2007

Area 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006(p) 2007(p)Cairns 57,135 66,063 79,634 92,630 111,469 117,629 136,558 140,913Douglas 4,415 4,699 6,184 7,716 9,359 10,466 10,947 11,190Cassowary Coast 23,450 23,941 25,179 26,548 28,894 30,113 29,601 29,859Tablelands 26,320 29,928 34,036 36,840 39,894 40,801 43,627 44,350Aboriginal councils na na na na 2,377 2,653 2,960 2,985Region 111,320 124,629 145,033 163,734 191,993 201,662 223,693 229,297

Source: ABS, Regional population growth (various editions), Cat No 3218.0; unpublished data Note: Population totals are for the estimated resident population, not Census count (p) = provisional

na = not available. Figures for Yarrabah and Wujal Wujal are included in those for the local government areas of which they were a part for statistical purposes prior to 2002.

Growth has fluctuated over time and by location in the region, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Average annual percentage change in population, sub-regions of Far North Queensland region, 1976–2007

Area 1976–

81 1981–

86 1986–

911991–

961996–2001

2001–2006(p)

2006–2007(p)

1976–2007(p)

Cairns 2.95 3.81 3.07 4.15 1.1 3.0 3.2 2.95

Douglas 1.25 5.65 4.53 4.68 2.61 0.9 2.2 3.05

Cassowary Coast 0.42 1.01 1.06 1.71 0.83 - 0.3 0.9 0.78Tablelands 2.6 2.61 1.6 1.61 0.45 1.3 1.7 1.7Aboriginal Councils na na na na 1.98 2.2 0.8 naRegion 2.29 3.08 2.46 3.24 0.99 2.10 2.51 2.36

Source: ABS, Regional population growth (various editions), Cat No 3218.0; unpublished data Note: (p) = provisional

na = not available. Figures for Yarrabah and Wujal Wujal are included in those for the local government areas of which they were a part for statistical purposes prior to 2002.

The region doubled in population between 1976 and 2006. Growth averaged 2.9 per cent per annum between 1981 and 1996 and then fell to less than 1.0 per cent per annum in the second half of the 1990s, with recovery since that period. In the late 1970s growth was most rapid in the Atherton–Eacham area in Tablelands, followed by Cairns and Douglas in the early 1980s. Douglas experienced growth averaging 4.7 per cent per annum between 1981 and 1996, while Cairns averaged almost 3 per cent growth per annum over the period from 1976, peaking at 4.2 per cent per annum in the early 1990s. The Cassowary Coast did not experience growth. Its population declined slightly in the initial years of this century. A summary of the population of all the urban centres and localities recognised by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as recorded in the censuses, is shown in Table 3. Figures for most years are Census totals, based on the type of centre in 2006. These are categorised as the regional centre (Cairns urban centre), the major regional activity centres (Atherton, Innisfail, Mareeba, Gordonvale, Smithfield and Tully), the coastal centres and local activity centres.

Table 3: Population by type of settlement Far North Queensland region, 1976–2006

Type of location

1976 Census count

1981 Census count

1986 Census count

1991 Census count

1996 Census count

2001 Census count

2001 Estimated resident

population

2006 Estimated resident

population

Number of

centres in 2006 (1976)

Regional centre 41,659 51,807 59,455 72,867 94,044 98,981

89,307 105,441 1 (1)

Major activity centres 22,216 23,541 25,665 27,727 30,171 30,677

31,348 33,374 6 (5) Coastal centres 6,835 10,300 16,315 26,487 28,271 35,171

24,310 27,912 15 (6)

Local activity centres 11,922 12,444 12,855 15,317 15,214 16,095

16,005 16,263 21 (19) All urban centres and localities 82,632 98,092 114,290 142,398 167,700 180,924

160,970 182,990 43 (31)

Remainder of region 28,738 32,916 36,947 40,068 46,118 42,036

40,692 40,703 Regional total 111,370 131,008 151,237 182,466 213,818 222,960

201,662 223,693

Sources: ABS various censuses, 1976–2001; Regional population growth, Cat. No. 3218.0; unpublished data Note: Figures for 1976–2001 Census counts include visitors; 2001 and 2006. Estimated resident population exclude visitors The traditional population structure (major centres, local towns and rural population, apart from the regional centre of Cairns) increased by 44 per cent between 1976 and 2006. By comparison, the population living in Cairns increased by 153 per cent and that in the coastal centres by 308 per cent in this period. Cairns and the coastal centres had 44 per cent of the regional population in 1976 in seven centres and by 2006 this had risen to 60 per cent in 16 centres. The growth was heavily focused in urban Cairns and the northern beaches in Cairns and Douglas. These centres include the region’s main urban centre, Cairns— with a resident population of over 100,000, and the second largest urban aggregation in the region, called Cairns Northern Beaches by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which had an estimated resident population of 16,612 in 2006. None of the remaining fourteen coastal centres had a resident population approaching 3,000 in 2006, with 10 having less than 1,000 residents. The growth in coastal centre population is partially because of separate identification of a range of small centres in the 2001 Census, which if they existed in 1996 were included in the ‘remainder’ category. The major activity centres experienced varying growth histories. Atherton had steady growth since the mid-1970s. Gordonvale was fairly stable apart from growth spurts in the late 1980s and early 1990s, then entered a period of more rapid growth at the turn of the century. Innisfail and Tully had stable numbers throughout the period, while Mareeba has had stable numbers since the mid-1980s, following earlier growth. Smithfield has established itself as a centre since the early 1980s, but has had stable numbers in recent years. Overall, the group experienced steady growth up to the mid-1990s, and has resumed this following a check in the late 1990s. The local activity centres had slow growth until the late 1980s and since then the numbers of residents have fluctuated in a narrow range. The population in non-urban areas expanded steadily through the three decades until the late 1990s when the population declined. This could be a function of the separate identification of small coastal centres for the first time.

Table 4 summarises the distribution of population change by type of settlement between 1976 and 2006, this is portrayed graphically in Figure 1. The dominance of Cairns and the coastal centres has grown, with the traditional centres having only slow growth. Until the last decade, rural areas absorbed or generated a large proportion of the population increase, but this changed markedly in the decade to 2006. When the change to the remainder of the region in the Cairns and Douglas sub-regions is excluded, the fall in this decade is even more pronounced.

Table 4: Distribution of population change, 1976–2006 (thousands)

Component 1976–86 1986–96 1996–2001 2001–06 1996–2006 Urban Cairns Coastal centres Major activity centres Local activity centres Remainder of region Regional total

+17.8 (43%)

+ 9.5 (25%)

+ 3.4 (9%)

+ 0.9 (2%)

+ 8.2 (21%)

+39.9

(100%)

+34.6 (57%)

+12.0 (20%)

+ 4.5 (7%)

+ 2.4 (4%)

+ 9.2 (15%)

+62.6

(100%)

+ 4.9 (54%)

+ 6.9

(76%)(a)

+ 0.5 (5%)

+ 0.9 (10%)

- 4.1

(..%) (a)

+ 9.1 (100%)

+16.1 (201%)

+ 3.6 (45%)

(+ ..) (..%)

+ 0.3 (4%)

(+ ..) (.. %)

+ 8.0

(100%)

+21.0 (123%)

+10.5 (61%)

+ 0.5 (3%)

+ 1.2 (7%)

- 4.1

(-24%)

+17.1 (100%)

Sources: See Table 3 Note: 1. (a) Figures for coastal centres and remainder of region are affected by the separate

identification of several small coastal centres (especially in the 2001 Census) in locations that in previous censuses were identified as remainder of region.

2. (..) Less than 250 3. (..%) Less than 0.25%)

If the pattern in the last decade continues, this could indicate that the region is bifurcating between the coastal tourist oriented areas and the remainder of the region, with consequent implications for regional planning.

Figure 1: Population change by type of settlement,FNQPR, 1976-2006

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

UrbanCairns

Coastalcentres

Major ActivityCentres

Local ActivityCentres

Remainderof Region

Regionaltotal

Settlement category

Thou

sand

s

1976-1986 1986-1996 1996-2006

The current demographic and social situation Overall pattern

As indicated in section B above, population growth has varied across the region. A discontinuous group of coastal centres has developed, mainly small, focusing on swimming, fishing and seaside tourist activities, as well as being a base for accessing the off-shore islands and the Great Barrier Reef. Other areas have become foci for people retiring or taking up a semi-rural lifestyle, with growth of large lot low density urban and rural residential areas. This has occurred in the coastal belt and in the Eacham and Atherton areas of Tablelands. Table 5 provides information on two components of the population recorded in the Census. Tourism is a major factor in the economy of the region, and the Census provides a snapshot of the scale of visitor movements in August 2006. The table also provides information on the extent and location of persons resident in non-private dwellings on the night of the census.

Table 5: Size and distribution of residents and visitor population type of dwelling in the region, 1 September 2006

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, Tables, P01, P03, unpublished data Note: 1. Data is for the 2006 Census count, not usual residence or estimated

resident population 2. As data is drawn from different sources, they may not add exactly in some

cases; however, in no case does a cell discrepancy exceed 10 persons.

Visitors

Tourism has a considerable impact on population numbers in the region, far higher than in the state as a whole—an overlay of 22 per cent more persons on the number counted at home compared with 9 per cent for Queensland as a whole. Visitors made up 18 per cent of the persons counted in the region in both the 2001 and the 2006 Census. However, this varies across the region. By adding visitors to the number of people counted at home, the population of the Douglas sub-region increased by 74 per cent, Cairns sub-region 23 per cent, Cassowary Coast 16 per cent, Tablelands sub-region 10 per cent and Aboriginal Councils 4 per cent. In absolute terms, of over 40,000 visitors, 27,500 were in Cairns and 7,100 in Douglas—81 per cent of all recorded visitors. Overall, 37 per cent of visitors were from overseas, compared with a state average of 22 per cent. However, this shields major internal differences. All the visitors recorded in the Aboriginal Councils were from Australia. Cairns (43 per cent) and Douglas (38 per cent) had the highest proportions of overseas visitors, while the Cassowary Coast recorded 18 per cent and Tablelands 14 per cent. In absolute terms, 92 per cent of the overseas visitors in the region were recorded in Cairns and Douglas, as were 75 per cent of the Australian visitors. While 56 per cent of overseas visitors were recorded at non-private dwellings—mainly hotels, motels and resorts—only 36 per cent of Australian visitors were in such accommodation. Ninety-three per cent of the overseas visitors in non-private dwellings were in Cairns and Douglas, as were 80 per cent of the Australian visitors in such accommodation. Australian

Area Type of dwelling

Residents counted at

home

Visitors from Australia

Visitors from overseas

Total Census count

Private 119,783 9,354 4,749 133,886Non-private 1,021 6,309 7,045 14,375

Cairns sub-region

Total 120,802 15,663 11,798 148,261Private 9,549 3,054 1,488 14,091Non-private 59 1,363 1,240 2,662

Douglas sub-region

Total 9,606 4,417 2,728 16,751Private 25,711 2,541 314 28,567Non-private 309 940 470 1,719

Cassowary Coast sub-region

Total 26,020 3,481 784 30,285Private 37,520 2,253 360 40,131Non-private 992 923 148 2,063

Tablelands sub-region

Total 38,512 3,176 508 42,193Private 2,584 86 0 2,670Non-private 11 10 0 21

Aboriginal Councils sub-region

Total 2,596 96 0 2,692Private 195,147 17,288 6,911 219,345Non-private 2,392 9,545 8,903 20,840

Far North Queensland region

Total 197,536 26,833 15,818 240,182Private 3,656,770 178,590 47,820 3,883,180Non-private 52,620 85,980 25,100 163,700

Queensland

Total 3,709,390 264,570 72,920 4,046,880

visitors had a greater propensity to occupy separate houses, flats and units where available, and caravans and other more temporary accommodation. Overall, the characteristics indicated by the Census may be summarised as follows:

• the region has levels of visitors nearly three times the state average

• visitors are predominantly (63 per cent) from Australia, overwhelmingly so outside Cairns and Douglas

• Cairns and Douglas dominate tourism in the region, with 81 per cent of all visitors and 93 per cent of the overseas visitors

• visitor patterns in Cairns and Douglas are different from those in the rest of the region.

A detailed analysis of the scale and impact of tourism in the region is provided in a separate report from the Planning Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU), The economic and social importance of tourism, Far North Queensland planning region, 2008.

Non-private dwellings

The Australian Bureau of Statistics classifies living accommodation broadly into two classes—private dwellings and non-private dwellings. The first group comprises of self-contained accommodation—mainly separate houses, home units, flats, apartments, caravans and tents —and the second is made up of hotels, private hotels, boarding houses, motels, hostels, bed and breakfast facilities, self-contained aged persons units and a wide range of institutional forms (hospitals, boarding schools, residential colleges, residential facilities for persons with disabilities, refuges for homeless persons and correctional institutions). Table 6 shows information on the main types of non-private dwellings identified in the 2006 Census in the region. While visitors predominated in hotels, motels, bed and breakfasts and backpacker and youth hostels, the remaining categories of non-private dwellings were mainly occupied by local residents. The level of occupancy in these remaining categories is 1.2 per cent of those counted at home, half the state average. The incidence of residents in hospitals, aged and retirement facilities, nursing homes and hostels for disabled persons was below the state average, while that for inmates of correctional facilities was much higher than the state average.

Table 6: Persons in non-private dwellings, Far North Queensland planning region, 2006 Type of facility Cairns Douglas Cassowary

Coast Tablelands Aboriginal

councils Region

Hotels, motels, bed and breakfast

8,430 2115 716 1,002 0 12,263

Hostels for youths and backpackers(a)

2,957 374 286 518 0 4,135

Nursing homes 232 56 246 251 0 788 Boarding schools, halls of residence

398 39 22 120 0 679

Correctional institutions

33 0 0 581 0 614

Non-self-contained accommodation for retired and aged

450 0 33 57 15 555

Hospitals 438 0 26 88 0 552 Boarding house, private hotel

472 0 9 23 0 504

Other types (b) 293 74 129 508 5 906 Not stated 676 6 247 0 0 929

TOTAL 14,379 2,664 1,714 3,148 20 21,925 Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, unpublished data

Note: (a) ABS category ‘other and not classifiable’ is predominantly youth and backpacker hostels.

(b) Includes (in descending order) staff quarters, hostels for homeless persons/refuges, hostels for disabled persons, other welfare institutions, nurses quarters and convents/monasteries.

The region provides specialist services for a larger area than that contained within its bounds, for example the Lotus Glen Correctional Centre and boarding school facilities in Tablelands Regional Council both serve a wider catchment than the Far North Queensland planning region. Consequently, low values in other categories are underestimating the shortfall in provision. Figures for particular sub-regions are affected by the presence or absence of specific facilities. Indigenous population The 2006 Census provides information on the number of persons identifying as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander and both in the region. Table 7 summarises the situation recorded in the 2006 Census. This region is an area of concentration of Indigenous people within both the state and the nation. Reported Indigenous persons make up one-eleventh of the population, almost three times the state average and over four times the national average. Overall, the region recorded 15.1 per cent of the Indigenous population of the state. Any planning has to be sensitive to the implications for such a significant proportion of a sizeable minority group within the state. The region had 14 per cent of the state’s Aboriginal population and 4 per cent of the Australian total. While all sub-regions had well above the state average for the level of Aboriginal population, the Aboriginal councils reported 96 per cent of their population as

Aboriginal persons, far higher than any other sub-region. In absolute terms, Cairns City had the highest number (almost 6,800, or 44 per cent of the regional total), while Tablelands had the second highest number. The region had 22 per cent of the state population of Torres Strait Islander Australians and 14 per cent of the national total. Cairns alone had 16 per cent of the state total and 10 per cent of the national total (as well as 72 per cent of the region’s total). The Aboriginal councils had the highest proportion of their sub-regional population as Torres Strait Islanders (almost 5 per cent). The region is nationally significant as a location of Torres Strait Islander people. Table 7: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Far North Queensland region, 2006 (percentage of population)

Persons Cai

rns

Dou

glas

Cas

sow

ary

Coa

st

Tabl

elan

ds

Abo

rigin

al

coun

cils

Reg

ion

Que

ensl

and

Aus

tral

ia

Aboriginal

5,193

(4.1)

599

(5.9)

1,614

(5.8)

3,020

(7.4)

2,480

(91.9)

12,906

(6.2)

98,716

(2.5)

407,698

(2.1)

Torres Strait Islander

3,153

(2.5)

69

(0.7)

378

(1.4)

359

(0.9)

26

(1.0)

3,985

(1.9)

18,374

(0.5)

29,517

(0.1)

Both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

1,574

(1.2)

152

(1.5)

319

(1.1)

261

(0.6)

99

(3.7)

2,405

(1.2)

10,488

(0.3)

17,816

(0.1)

Total Indigenous

9,920 (7.8)

820 (8.0)

2,311 (8.3)

3,640 (8.9)

2,605 (96.5)

19,296 (9.2)

127,578 (3.3)

455031 (2.3)

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, Tables I02 and X02, relevant local government areas and state.

Age distribution The age structure of the estimated resident population in 2006 is shown in Table 8 and Figure 2. Table 8: Age structure of the estimated resident population, Far North Queensland planning region, 2006 (percentage distribution)

0–14

years

15–24 years

25–44 years

45–64 years

65+ years

Total

Cairns 29,688 (21.7)

18,102(13.3)

43,472(31.8)

33,391(24.5)

11,905 (8.7)

136,558(100.0)

Douglas 2,069 (18.9)

1,215(11.1)

3,538(32.3)

3,067(28.0)

1,058 (9.7)

10,947(100.0)

Cassowary Coast

6,294 (21.3)

3,374(11.4)

7,490(25.3)

8,235(27.8)

4,208 (14.2)

29,601(100.0)

Tablelands 9,125 (20.9)

4,606(10.6)

10,631(24.4)

12,757(29.2)

6,508 (14.9)

43,627(100.0)

Aboriginal councils

1,071 (36.2)

563(19.0)

866(29.3)

387(13.1)

73 (2.5)

2,960(100.0)

Region 48,247 (21.6)

27,860(12.5)

65,997(29.5)

57,837(25.9)

23,752 (10.6)

223,693(100.0)

State 834,591 (20.4)

578,170(14.1)

1,171,154(28.6)

1,014,106(24.8)

493,525 (12.1)

4,091,546(100.0)

Source: ABS, (2007) Population estimates by age and sex, Australia, by Geographic Classification [ASGC 2006], at 30 June: 2006

Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average. LIGHT= more than 10 per cent lower than state average

At the regional level, the main features of the age distribution are the low proportion of those aged 15–24 years and those older than 64 years, compared with the state average. However, there were significant sub-regional variations. At the sub-regional level, the following patterns occurred:

• While the other sub-regions (except Douglas) had proportions of children slightly above the state average, the Aboriginal councils had a proportion almost 80 per cent above the state average.

• All sub-regions except the Aboriginal councils had proportions of the population aged 15–24 years well below the state average. The proportion in the Aboriginal councils was more than one-third higher than the state average.

• Cairns and Douglas had well above average levels of 25–44 year olds (the main working age group), while the rural-focused sub-regions had much lower proportions in this age group.

• Douglas, the Cassowary Coast and Tablelands had high proportions of residents in the older working age groups, while the Aboriginal councils had few in this group.

• The distribution of the elderly section of the regional population fell into three groups: Cassowary Coast and Tablelands with high proportions of the resident population aged 65 years or older, Cairns and Douglas having below the state average proportion, and very few in the Aboriginal councils—while specific estimates should be used with caution, there were less than 40 persons estimated to be 70 years or older in this sub-region.

• Cairns can be characterised as having a higher than average proportion in the younger working age groups, and comparatively few elderly persons.

• Douglas had fewer than average young people, a higher than average share of those in the main working age groups, and slightly below average numbers in the age group over 64 years.

• The Cassowary Coast and Tablelands had very similar age distributions, the traditional pattern of stable or declining rural areas, with low proportions of 15–44 year olds and high proportions of those older than 44. This has developed especially in the early years of this century, as it was not a feature of the 2001 age distribution of these areas.

• The Aboriginal councils' age distribution was a common Aboriginal community pattern of high proportions of younger people and very few elderly residents.

• The figures show the capacity to attract young adult migrants is high in Cairns and Douglas, with work associated with the expansion of tourism and the coastal lifestyle.

Household structure Table 9 and Figure 3 show the household structure in the region recorded in the 2006 Census. Table 9: Household structure of usual residents, Far North Queensland region, 2006 (percentage) Household type

Cai

rns

Dou

glas

Cas

sow

ary

Coa

st

Tabl

elan

ds

Abo

rigin

al

coun

cils

Reg

ion

Stat

e

Couple families with children

13,539 (29.7)

934(24.4)

2,956(30.2)

4,133(27.9)

220(45.5)

21,782 (29.3) (31.9)

Couple families without children

11,944 (26.2)

1,186(30.9)

3,026(30.9)

4,841(32.7)

59(12.2)

21,056 (28.3) (28.2)

One parent families

5,778 (12.7)

344(9.0)

1,073(11.0)

1,626(11.0)

125(25.9)

8,946 (12.0) (11.4)

Other family 556 (1.2)

45(1.2)

81(0.8)

151(1.0)

27(5.6)

860 (1.2) (1.2)

Lone person households

11,297 (24.8)

1,053(27.5)

2,350(24.0)

3,682(24.9)

49(10.1)

18,431 (24.8) (22.8)

Group households 2,409 (5.3)

272(7.1)

303(3.1)

375(2.5)

3(0.6)

3,362 (4.5) (4.5)

All households 45,523 (100.0)

3,834(100.0)

9,789(100.0)

14,808(100.0)

483(100.0)

74,437 (100.0) (100.0)

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, Table X25 Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average

LIGHT= more than 10 per cent lower than state average The main points to note are as follows:

• The overall regional household structure of usual residents is similar to that of the state as a whole, with a slightly lower proportion of couple families with children balanced by slightly higher proportions of lone person households.

• Almost half the households in the Aboriginal councils were couples with children, a

level more than 50 per cent higher than in the rest of the region, and more than 40 per cent higher than that in the state as a whole.

• Douglas had the lowest proportion of couples with children, at less than a quarter of all households.

• Aboriginal councils had less than one in eight households being couples without

children, while this type of household was the most common in the rest of the region apart from Cairns.

• One quarter of households in the Aboriginal councils were one-parent families.

Cairns, with the next highest proportion (and significantly above the state average) had half that proportion, although these comprised two-thirds of the number in the region.

Figure 3: Household distribution by type of household,FNQ Planning Region, 2006

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Cairns

Douglas

Cassowary Coast

Tablelands

Aboriginal Councils

Region

State

Are

a

Percentage of households

Couple family with children Couple family without childrenOne parent family Other familyGroup household Lone person household

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of population and housing, Table X25

• More than 70 per cent of households in the Aboriginal councils had child

members; Cairns and the Cassowary Coast had more than 40 per cent, and the lowest proportion was in Douglas, at only one household in three.

• All sub-regions except the Aboriginal councils had higher proportions of lone

person households than the state average.

• Cairns and Douglas had almost 80 per cent of the other household types (other types of family and group households).

To complement this information, Table 10 shows the distribution of households by size of household for usual residents in 2006. The main points to note are as follows:

• Regionally, the distribution roughly approximates the state distribution, with a slightly greater proportion of small (one and two person) households.

• All sub-regions except the Aboriginal councils had an above average proportion

of one and two person households, with Douglas at 67 per cent, being the

highest, and Cassowary Coast and Tablelands having more than 60 per cent of their households of this size.

• The majority of households in the Aboriginal councils had five or more persons.

• Cairns was the only sub-region recording higher than state average proportions

of three and four person households.

• Douglas had well under the state average for proportions of households with five or more persons.

Table 10: Household size distribution, Far North Queensland region, 2006 (percentage) Number of

households with:

Cairns Douglas Cassowary Coast

Tablelands Aboriginal councils

Region State

one person 11,298 (24.8)

1,055 (27.5)

2,346(24.0)

3,677(24.8)

53 (10.9)

18,429 (24.8) (22.8)

two people 15,950 (35.0)

1,515 (39.5)

3,691(37.7)

5,739(38.7)

68 (14.0)

26,963 (36.2) (35.9)

three people

7,389 (16.2)

543 (14.2)

1,367(14.0)

2,030(13.7)

50 (10.3)

11,379 (15.3) (15.9)

four people 8,675 (19.1)

416 (10.9)

1,382(14.1)

1,911(12.9)

49 (10.1)

12,433 (16.7) (15.3)

five people 2,777 (6.1)

198 (5.2)

643(6.6)

918(6.2)

51 (10.5)

4,587 (6.2) (6.8)

six people +

1,432 (3.1)

107 (2.8)

357(3.6)

539(3.6)

216 (44.4)

2,651 (3.6) (3.3)

Total 45,521 (100.0)

3,834 (100.0)

9,786(100.0)

14,814(100.0)

487 (100.0)

74,442 (100.0) (100.0)

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of population and housing, Table B30 Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average.

LIGHT = more than 10 per cent lower than state average. Mobility of the population The 2006 Census provides information on the location of usual residents one and five years prior to the Census date. This is summarised in Table 11. In terms of their comparative experience, the region had three separate groups of sub-regions. Cairns and Douglas had high levels of new residents; the Cassowary Coast had levels of established residents slightly higher than the average in Queensland, while the Aboriginal councils had very low levels of mobility—in or out. Table 11: Percentage of usual residents still living in same location after one and five years, FNQ region, 2006

Area Percentage of residents living

in the same dwelling: one year ago five years ago Cairns 69.0 39.8 Douglas 68.5 41.2 Cassowary Coast 76.0 51.8 Tablelands 75.3 50.3 Aboriginal councils 92.6 88.5 Region 71.4 44.2 Queensland 74.1 45.1

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of population and housing, Tables B37 and B38 Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average. LIGHT = more than 10 per cent lower than state average.

Indicators of socio-economic disadvantage The Australian Bureau of Statistics has published for local government areas a range of indexes based on the results of the ‘Place of enumeration profiles’ in the 2006 Census. The results of the four indexes in ‘Socio-economic indexes for areas 2006’ (SEIFA 2006) for the sub-regions are shown in Table 12. These have been rescaled using an approximation to the recommended method for adjustment. The indexes are developed across all local government areas in Australia, and adjusted to have a mean value of 1,000 and a standard deviation of 100. Two-thirds of results across Australia fall between 900 and 1,100 on each of the indexes. Values between 975 and 1,025 fall within 10 per cent of the mean. The bureau description of the indexes is as follows:

• Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage: a continuum of advantage (high values) to disadvantage (low values) which is derived from Census variables related to both advantage and disadvantage, like household with low income and people with a tertiary education.

• Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage: focuses primarily on

disadvantage, and is derived from Census variables like low income, low educational attainment, unemployment and dwellings without motor vehicles.

• Index of economic resources: focuses on financial aspects of advantage and

disadvantage, using Census variables relating to residents' incomes, housing expenditure and assets.

• Index of education and occupation: includes Census variables relating to the

educational attainment, employment and vocational skills.

‘The concept of relative socio-economic disadvantage is neither simple, nor well defined. SEIFA uses a broad definition of relative socio-economic disadvantage in terms of people's access to material and social resources, and their ability to participate in society. While SEIFA represents an average of all people living in an area, SEIFA does not represent the individual situation of each person. Larger areas are more likely to have greater diversity of people and households.’ Source: ABS, Information Paper: An Introduction to Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), 2006

For comparison, values for some of the major urban local governments in Queensland are shown.

Table 12: Calculated values of socio-economic indicators, Far North Queensland planning region, 2006

SEIFA Index Cai

rns

Dou

glas

Cas

sow

ary

Coa

st

Tabl

elan

ds

Abo

rigin

al

coun

cils

Reg

ion

Bris

bane

C

ity

Tow

nsvi

lle

City

Toow

oom

ba

Cit y

Ip

swic

h C

ity

Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage 1,001 976 921 929 655 971

1,063 1,004

973 954

Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage 1,001 985 950 950 491 978

1,048

1,008 987 971

Index of economic resources 996 986 965 961 575 980

1,035 996 972 985

Index of education and occupation 981 921 921 944 795 961

,1065 996 977 926

Source: ABS, SEIFA indexes, local government areas, 2006—Cat.No. 2033.0.55.001 Note: LIGHT = more than 10 per cent lower than state average. The main points to emerge from this are as follows:

• The region as a whole and (on most measures) the individual sub-regions had average values below the national average on all indicators.

• The Aboriginal council areas were far below national averages, as well as the

regional averages. Yarrabah was in the first or second percentile nationally (i.e. the lowest or second lowest percentile) on all indexes, ranking third, ninth, fourth and eighth lowest among local government areas in the country, lowest in Queensland on the index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage and second lowest on the other three.

• Cairns had the highest values in the region. These were close to the national

average, lower than those for Brisbane and Townsville, but compared favourably with the other state major centres shown.

Indicator of crowding in housing provision A second aspect of disadvantage that can be derived from the Census is overcrowding. In its publication 4704.0: The health and welfare of Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, 2005, the Australian Bureau of Statistics stated:

Overcrowding, poor dwelling condition and inadequate basic utilities such as facilities for washing clothes, sewerage systems or safe drinking water have all been associated with higher rates of infectious and parasitic diseases. These include skin infections and infestations, respiratory infections, eye and ear infections, diarrhoeal diseases and rheumatic fever.

The nationally accepted definition is the Proxy Occupancy Standard, which specifies bedroom requirements for different household types. These provide for one bedroom for a lone person household, separate bedrooms for each adult in a group household, two bedrooms for a couple with no children or one child, two bedrooms for a single parent household with one child, three bedrooms for families with two or three children, and four bedrooms for families with four or more children. Households that require two or more additional bedrooms to meet the standard are considered to be overcrowded.

Using 2006 Census tables, a measure based on this standard can be calculated for the region, estimating the proportion of households which do not meet the specific bedroom provisions. This is not the same as the standard, which provides leeway in the provision of bedrooms. Also, in practice, bed-sitter accommodation is now accepted as meeting the standard. Owing to limitations in the data available, these adjustments have not been made in deriving Table 13. Consequently, the crowding figures calculated and given in Table 13 will be higher than those obtained from applying the Proxy Occupancy Standard to the original data. However, this circumstance also applies to the state and national calculations, so the relativities should remain reasonable approximations. With these caveats, information on the extent to which the specific criteria were met in 2006 is set out in Table 13. Table 13: Percentage of usual resident households living in private accommodation at less than the proxy occupancy standard criteria, FNQ planning region, 2006

Area Households in separate houses with less than the

recommended bedroom provision

Households in semi-

detached houses with less than the


Households in flats, units

and apartments

with less than recommended

bedroom provision

Households in other

dwellings with less than the


All households in dwellings with

less than recommended

bedroom provision

Cairns 3.6 12.2 16.0 28.9 6.8 Douglas 7.8 15.5 17.0 35.4 11.7 Cassowary Coast 7.4 8.0 17.9 36.7 9.4 Tablelands 7.2 11.6 11.0 29.2 8.3 Aboriginal councils 17.3 0.0 0.0 35.9 29.4 Region 5.3 12.2 15.9 31.4 7.8 State 3.3 6.1 11.7 17.3 4.7 Australia 3.3 8.0 15.6 22.4 5.6

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of population and housing, Tables X29, X30 and X31. The table clearly indicates the following, in relation to usual residents in the region:

• There was a higher proportion of households living in accommodation that is less than that indicated as meeting the room provision standards in the region than is the case statewide and nationally. This was the case for all types of dwellings.

• The difference between the regional and the state and national proportions was

greatest in the category ‘other dwellings’ (mainly caravans, tents and housing attached to business premises). Almost one in three households living in this type of dwelling in the region had less than the preferred minimum bedroom provision for the size of the households.

• All sub-regions recorded higher than state average levels in all categories

available, with the exception of households in flats, units and apartments in Tablelands, where the value is slightly lower than the state average. This is a consistent problem across the region in all types of dwellings.

• Levels for residents in separate houses outside Cairns were generally twice the

state and national average.

• Levels for residents in semi-detached dwellings outside the Cassowary Coast were generally twice the state average and 50 per cent higher than the national average.

• Levels for residents in flats, units and apartments were generally one-third higher

than the state average and slightly higher than the national average. • Levels of crowding in the Aboriginal councils were six times the state average

and more than five times the national average overall. These relate predominantly to households in separate houses, as there were no semi-detached dwellings or flats in these areas, and few other dwellings.

Specific social and economic aspects of importance to planning In planning for the region, some specific social and economic factors should be directly allowed for in land use planning decisions. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has developed a conceptual framework for reporting indicators, which it bases on three domains—social, economic and environmental (Measures of Australia’s Progress 2006, catalogue number 1370.0, with the latest data iteration being released in 2008)—within which are a range of dimensions with specific indicators. While many of the specific indicators are not available at the regional or sub-regional levels, the framework can be used for providing surrogate measures for the region. Appendix 2 provides measures based on this structure. Because of the focus of this report, the aspects aimed at the environmental domain have not been included. The indicators shown are in many cases not the ‘headline indicators’ in the national framework, but are the most useful available at the local level. In addition, a dimension called ‘structural status measures’ has been included in the table which has additional indicators of the extent of possible special needs of planning significance, based on past experience. Data refers to 2006 in most cases, and sources other than the 2006 Census of population and housing are indicated.

Table 14 summarises, from the information in Appendix 2, how the residents as a regional group differ from those in the state as a whole. Table 14: Comparison on selected indicators of the FNQ planning region with Queensland Individual Economics and

economic resources

Living together Structural status measures

a greater potential to die younger

less post-school education

less educational and occupational resources to draw on

lower unemployment rates and a higher proportion working

higher personal incomes

a greater proportion of households in economic hardship

lower than average access to human economic resources

a higher proportion of households living in accommodation that does not meet accepted standards

lower than average access to occupational resources relevant to raising productivity

a greater proportion of one parent families and lone person households

a higher proportion of children without an employed parent

the balance of socio-economic resources weighted against advantage to a greater extent

participation in community affairs at or below the state average

less access to communications

a higher proportion of households without vehicles

a lesser likelihood of involvement in road accidents

Indigenous residents form over three times the proportion of the population

a slightly lower than average proportion born in non-English speaking countries

fewer elderly persons

higher provision of public housing

Overall, more residents work than is the general pattern in the state, but lower credentials, larger household sizes and higher costs of living nullify for many the advantages of being able to earn individually higher than average income. They have a higher level of overcrowding, poorer access to telecommunications and cars. In general, they have as a community less access to social and economic resources than is the norm in the nation.

Table 15 summarises, from the information in Appendix 2, how the residents of the Cairns sub-region differ from those in the state as a whole, and in relation to the other sub-regions. Table 15: Comparison on selected indicators of Cairns sub-region with Queensland and FNQ planning region

Comparison Individual Economics and economic resources


Queensland lower unemployment rate

higher income

lower economic hardship

higher crowding

lower than average access to occupational resources relevant to raising productivity

higher proportion of one parent households

lower proportion of elderly persons

higher proportion of Indigenous persons

higher provision of public housing

Highest in FNQ planning region

education and training

SEIFA Index of education and occupation

income SEIFA Index

of Economic Resources

Crime (includes Cape York)

persons from non-English speaking countries

Lowest in FNQ planning region

economic hardship

crowding

lack of internet access

percentage population Aboriginal

Overall, Cairns most closely approximates the state average values in this region. However, it is significantly different in terms of the presence of Indigenous persons and the extent of crowding.

Table 16 summarises how the residents of the Douglas sub-region differ from those in the state as a whole and in relation to the other sub-regions. Table 16: Comparison on selected indicators of Douglas sub-region with FNQ planning region and Queensland Comparison Individual Economics and

economic resources


Queensland low SEIFA Index of education and occupation

low unemployment rate

high percentage of population employed

high income high crowding low percentage

managers and professionals

low proportion of one parent families

high proportion of lone person households

low proportion of children without an employed parent

low proportion with poor command of English

high proportion without vehicles

high rate of road crashes

low proportion of elderly persons

high proportion of Aboriginal residents

high proportion of Torres Strait Islander residents


percentage of population employed

proportion of lone person households

road crash rate


death rate unemployment

rate

proportion of lone person households

proportion of children without an employed parent

proportion with poor command of English

proportion of population aged

0–14 years

Douglas has a structure that is common to tourist areas, with high employment, high income, low skill levels, and high levels of lone person households. It shares with the rest of the region high levels of Indigenous residents.

Table 17 summarises how the residents of the Cassowary Coast sub-region differ from those in the state as a whole and in relation to the other sub-regions. Table 17: Comparison on selected indicators of Cassowary Coast sub-region with FNQ planning region and Queensland



Queensland high death rate low post-

secondary qualifications

low SEIFA Index of education and occupation

low SEIFA Index of economic resources

high crowding

low SEIFA Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage

high proportion of children without an employed parent

low crimes against property rate

low levels of access to the internet

low road crash rate

high proportion of elderly persons

high proportion of Aboriginal residents

high proportion of Torres Strait Islander residents

low proportion from non-English- speaking countries

low provision of public housing


voter turnout


crime provision of public housing

The Cassowary Coast scores low on the SEIFA indexes, indicating a comparative lack of resource base in the skills and access of its residents. It has low crime levels and average to high levels of community cohesion. In common with the rest of the region, it has high levels of Indigenous residents.

Table 18 summarises, from the information in Appendix 2, how the residents of the Tablelands sub-region differ from those in the state as a whole, and in relation to the other sub-regions. Table 18: Comparison on selected indicators of Tablelands sub-region with FNQ planning region and Queensland



Queensland high death rate low proportion

with post-secondary qualifications

low SEIFA index of education and occupation

high unemployment rate

low proportion of population employed

low individual income

high proportion of low income households

low SEIFA index of economic resources

high crowding

low SEIFA index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage


low proportion with poor command of English

high rate of volunteering

high rate of crime against the person

low rate of crime against property

low access to the internet

low proportion of households without cars

low road crash rate

high proportion of elderly persons

high proportion of Indigenous persons

low proportion of persons from non-English speaking countries


low household income

proportion of managers and professionals in the employed labour force

proportion of children without an employed parent

level of volunteering

road crashes

proportion of elderly in the population


employed persons as percentage of population

proportion of households without cars

proportion of Torres Strait Islander residents

The Tablelands sub-region exhibits characteristics of many rural areas of Queensland, with low SEIFA scores, high unemployment levels together with the hidden underemployment associated with a low ratio of employed persons to the eligible population, high levels of Aboriginal residents, few from non-English-speaking countries, together with high community involvement and low levels of crime against property. Table 19 summarises, from the information in Appendix 2, how the residents of the Aboriginal councils sub-region differ from those in the state as a whole and in relation to the other sub-regions.

Table 19: Comparison on selected indicators of the Aboriginal councils sub-region with FNQ planning region and Queensland Comparison Individual Economics and

economic resources


Queensland very high death rate

very low proportion of adults with post-secondary qualifications

very low score on SEIFA index of education and occupation

high unemployment rate

low personal income

very low score on SEIFA index of economic resources

very high proportions of crowding

very low proportion of managers and professionals in the employed labour force

very high proportion of one parent families

very low proportion of lone person households

very low score on SEIFA index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage


higher proportion with poor command of English

low rate of volunteering

very low access to the internet

very high proportion of the population aged 0–14 years

very few elderly residents

very high proportions of both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents

very low proportion of residents from non-English speaking countries

high provision of public housing


death rate unemployment

rate

crowding

one-parent households

proportion with poor command of English

poor access to the internet

proportion of dwellings without a vehicle

proportion of population aged 0–14 years

Aboriginal persons as proportion of residents

Torres Strait Islander persons as proportion of residents

public housing as proportion of dwellings


adults with post-secondary education and training

score on SEIFA index of education and occupation

personal income score on SEIFA

index of economic resources

proportion of managers and professionals in the employed labour force

one-person households

score on SEIFA index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage

proportion volunteering

proportion of residents elderly

proportion of residents from non-English- speaking countries

The Aboriginal councils in the FNQ planning region are amongst the lowest scoring local governments in Australia on the suite of SEIFA indexes. Yarrabah Aboriginal Council ranks in the first or second percentile nationally on the indexes, while in Queensland, Yarrabah Council ranks in the lowest three councils on all indexes. The other data in the table clarifies some of the ways that this extreme position is illustrated. Of the 25 indicators for which values for the Aboriginal councils are available, the results are outside the ± 10 per cent range of the state average in 22 cases. Within the region, the sub-region has either the highest or lowest result on 22 of the indicators. In addition, greater refinement of the indicators may increase the measured extent of these issues. For instance, the indicator of economic hardship does not allow for the size of the households, as the Measures of Australia’s Progress (MAP) 2006 headline indicator does. This is not significant in the case of the region apart from the Aboriginal councils, as the other sub-regions had 8–10 per cent of households consisting of five or more persons, compared with a state average of 10 per cent. However, the comparative figure for the Aboriginal councils was 55 per cent. Consequently, adjustment for the size of households is likely to result in a major increase in the measured degree of economic hardship in this sub-region.

The current housing situation Structure of housing The 2006 Census provides a snapshot of the housing situation in the region (Tables 20 and 21). Table 20: Number of housing units, FNQ planning region, 2006

Sub-region Separate house

Attached house

Flat, unit, apartment

Other dwelling

(a)

Not stated

Total: occupied/

unoccupied/ all dwellings

Cairns 35,625 3,928 11,252 1,912 32 52,749/5,121/57,870

Douglas

2,760 861 1,466 682 0 5,769/1,089/ 6,858

Cassowary Coast

8,810 410 900 1,075 6 11,201/1,351/12,552

Tablelands

14,068 415 753 957 6 16,199/1,749/17,948

Aboriginal councils

457 0 0 37 0 494/106/ 512

Region

61,720 5,614 14,371 4,663 44 86,412/9,416/95,828

Source: ABS, 2006 Census of population and housing, Table T16, and unpublished data Note: (a) ‘Other’ includes caravans, tents, boats, improvised homes

Table 21: Change in the structure of housing FNQ planning region, 1991–2006 (percentage of dwellings) Sub-region Year Separate

house Attached

house Flat, unit,

apartment Other

(a) 1991 67.9 8.7 15.5 6.8

Cairns 2001 65.1 7.5 21.6 4.4 2006 67.5 7.4 21.3 3.6 1991 47.3 8.1 18.2 24.6 Douglas 2001 47.1 11.4 24.3 16.1 2006 47.8 14.9 25.4 11.8 1991 73.1 2.4 10.4 13.5 Cassowary Coast 2001 76.7 2.8 8.9 10.9 2006 78.7 3.7 8.0 9.6 1991 84.1 1.9 4.9 7.7 Tablelands 2001 85.3 2.5 4.3 6.9 2006 86.8 2.6 4.6 5.9 1991 na na na na Aboriginal councils (b) 2001 85.7 0 0 8.1 2006 92.5 0 0 7.5 1991 70.9 6.2 12.5 9.3 Region 2001 69.5 6.1 16.6 6.7 2006 71.4 6.5 16.6 5.4 1991 78.4 4.3 12.3 4.3 Queensland 2001 76.3 6.9 12.9 3.0 2006 76.5 7.5 13.0 2.8

Source: ABS, Census of population and housing, 2001 and 2006, Time Series Profiles Note: (a) ‘Other’ includes caravans, tents, boats, improvised homes.

(b) 1991 figures not available; 2006 figures include 18% not stated. The main points to note are:

• Separate houses made up 71 per cent of the housing units in 2006, clearly the dominant type of accommodation. In the region as a whole, the proportion of separate houses fell between 1991 and 2001, but rose again during the first five years of this century. Its dominance is least in Douglas, where it forms a large minority of the stock, and greatest in Tablelands and the Aboriginal councils. In absolute terms, the number of separate houses in the region increased by one-third in the 15 years 1991–2006 and made up almost 60 per cent of the increase in stock overall.

• The proportion of attached housing remained static, well below the state average

in 2001 and 2006. Overall numbers also remained static. Cairns had 70 per cent of the stock, with Douglas having a further 15 per cent, as well as being the main location of construction.

• The number of flats, apartments and units increased by almost 80 per cent in the

decade, with Cairns and Douglas accounting for almost all of the net gains. This type of accommodation doubled its incidence in these sub-regions.

• ‘Other’ forms of private accommodation, mainly caravans, tents and improvised

homes, fell in relative significance and in absolute number. Their share of available accommodation remained at almost twice the state average.

• The primary difference in the structure of the housing stock is between Cairns

and Douglas where there is a very diverse housing structure, and the rest of the region where separate houses form almost 90% of the stock.

• Vacancy rates rose from 7.7 per cent to 9.5 per cent between 1991 and 2001, and again to 9.8 per cent in 2006. The highest level (20.7 per cent) was in the Aboriginal councils (mainly in ‘other dwellings’) and in Douglas, where 15.9 per cent of dwellings were vacant—primarily a result of a vacancy in the attached forms of dwellings (including units and townhouse types combined) of 30 per cent.

Table 22 shows the ownership pattern of occupied dwellings in the sub-regions. The main features were:

• The totally different ownership pattern of the Aboriginal councils, where most

households live in rented accommodation and the rest of the region. • The clear split between Cairns and Douglas, with (by state standards) low levels

of owner-occupancy, and the other two sub-regions, with high levels of owner-occupancy. This is reflected in the higher levels of renting in the first two sub-regions, and lower levels in the other two.

• General low levels of purchaser occupancy—all sub-regions were below the state

average. • All sub-regions, except Tablelands, had lower than average levels of combined

owner and purchaser occupancy. Apart from Cairns, all have high ratios of owners to purchasers, pointing to either a preponderance of old established owners, a lack of purchasing availability, or preference for rental and other modes of occupancy.

• High levels of ‘other’ occupancy types, especially in Douglas. • The differences between state and regional averages remain from 2001 to 2006,

but have lessened. Table 22: Ownership of occupied dwellings in the FNQ planning region, 2006 (percentage distribution) Sub-region Year Owner

occupied Purchaser occupied

Renter occupied

Other and not stated

Cairns 2001 27.1 24.4 38.4 10.1 2006 22.9 30.0 34.7 12.4 Douglas 2001 29.7 13.3 34.7 22.3 2006 25.8 20.0 37.9 16.3 Cassowary Coast 2001 43.1 16.5 30.1 10.3 2006 38.2 22.7 29.3 9.8 Tablelands 2001 47.0 17.5 25.1 10.4 2006 40.8 23.6 26.3 9.4 Aboriginal councils 2001 7.9 0.7 76.9 14.5 2006 7.5 0 84.6 7.9 Region 2001 33.4 21.1 34.4 11.1 2006 28.3 27.0 32.9 11.7 Queensland 2001 36.6 25.8 30.1 7.5 2006 30.4 31.4 30.0 8.2 Source: ABS, Census of population and housing, 2001, Cat. No. 2016.3 Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average. LIGHT= more than 10 per cent lower than state average. The coastal centres and Cairns have low levels of owner occupancy and high levels of rental. The small rural activity centres and rural areas have the reverse—high ownership and average-to-low rental proportions. Urban Cairns is the only type that approaches the state average for purchaser proportions.

In 2001, Cairns and the coastal centres had less than half their dwellings as owner or purchaser occupied. At the other extreme, the rural areas had 70 per cent in such occupancy. In between, the traditional activity centres had about 55 per cent of dwellings either owner or purchaser occupied. Four centres had higher proportions of dwellings occupied by renters rather than owners or purchasers—the two Aboriginal communities (Wujal Wujal and Yarrabah), where private ownership is limited, Port Douglas and Craiglie – while Mossman had virtual parity. Current trends in residential supply Current trends in dwelling approvals, lot approvals and lots produced are shown in Tables 23 and 24. These show a generally sequential series. Lot approvals are intended to be followed by lot production, which in turn are followed by dwelling approvals. In practice, there are lags in the process, and some actions do not proceed to completion. Table 23: Indicators of recent trends in the housing market, sub-regions, FNQ planning region

Dwelling approvals, 2001–02 to 2006–07

Sub-region Lot approvals,

2001–06

Lot production,

2001–06Detached

housingAttached housing

All housing

Cairns 9,893 5,714 5,866 3,831 9,697Douglas 1,231 490 624 246 870Cassowary Coast 1,563 592 815 175 990Tablelands 2,453 1,050 1,471 127 1,598

Aboriginal councils 0 0 4 0 4Regional total 15,140 7,846 8,780 4,379 13,159Source: Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, unpublished data. Lot approvals were concentrated, with 66 per cent of the regional total in Cairns sub-region. Lot production represents a greater level of commitment than the approvals information. The concentration in the Cairns sub-region was greater than for lot approvals (73 per cent). There were no lot approvals or production in the Aboriginal councils in the period. While the ratio of lots produced to lot approvals approached 60 per cent in Cairns, the ratio in the rest of the region averaged 40 per cent. The dwelling approvals show the dominance of Cairns City, with 74 per cent of approvals. At the other extreme, no approvals were given in the Aboriginal councils. Separate houses made up two-thirds of the regional total, 61 per cent of dwelling approvals in Cairns, 72 per cent in Douglas, 83 per cent in the Cassowary Coast and 92 per cent in Tablelands. Table 24 shows the distribution by type of settlement. Dwelling approval data is currently only available for the period 2001–02 to 2005–06.

Table 24: Indicators of recent trends in the housing market, type of settlement, FNQ planning region

Dwelling approvals, 2001–02 to

2006–07

Type of settlement

Lot approvals,

2001–06

Lot production,

2001–06Detached

housingAttached housing

All housing

Cairns regional centre 5,472 3,814 3,814 2,726 6,540Coastal centres 4,106 1,777 1,828 1,313 3,141Major activity centres 1,630 685 812 208 1,021Local activity centres 501 237 395 46 441Remainder of region 3,431 1,333 1,931 86 2,017Regional Total 15,140 7,846 8,780 4,379 13,159

Source: Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, unpublished data

The regional centre dominates the housing market, with 36 per cent of the lot approvals, leading to 49 per cent of lot production and then 59 per cent of dwelling approvals (64 per cent of those for attached forms of housing). The other major group of lot approvals and production was in the coastal centres, comprising 27 per cent of lot approvals and 23 per cent of lot production between 2001 and 2006. By comparison, the group of traditional activity centres accounted for 14 per cent of lot approvals and 12 per cent of lot production. This information can be compared with the estimated population increase between 2001 and 2006, shown in Table 3 above, where coastal centres had 16 per cent of the population growth in that period, and the traditional centres 10 per cent of the growth. The high proportion of activity outside the urban centres and localities is noticeable. Sixteen per cent of the new lots approved for residential development in the Cairns sub-region over the period were in rural areas. This pattern is consistent across the region, with 26 per cent of lot approvals in local government areas other than Cairns being outside the urban centres and localities. Twelve per cent of production in Cairns was outside the designated urban centres and localities, while in the rest of the region 31 per cent of lot production was outside existing urban centres and localities. This points to the continued development of a substantial stock of unoccupied lots outside the urban area. These have approval for development for residential housing (predominantly rural residential) and in the period 31 per cent of dwelling approvals for separate houses were outside the urban centres and localities.

The future demographic situation Projected population growth, 2006–26 This section provides information based on the current official population projections for the region. The numbers shown for years beyond 2006 were projected based on information assessed prior to the 2006 Census and may be subject to change. They are ‘projected’ and not ‘predicted’ estimates and as such provide a framework for planning decisions. Table 25 shows the projections for resident population growth for the region. While direct projections were prepared for most of the local government areas in the region, the future population of the Aboriginal councils in FNQ planning region was projected by PIFU using an indirect methodology. The population of all the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and local governments in far north statistical division was projected as a group and a constant share of these numbers has been allocated to the Aboriginal councils in FNQ planning region. Table 25: High series projections of the estimated resident population of the FNQ planning region, 2006–26

Change 2006–26 Area 2006pr(c) 2016 2026

Number % p.a.Cairns sub-region 136,558 167,065 207,648 71,090 2.12Douglas sub-region 10,947

14,433 18,225 7,278 2.58

Cassowary Coast sub-region 29,601

33,938 37,617 8,016 1.21

Tablelands sub-region(b)

43,627

50,915 57,326 13,699 1.37

Aboriginal councils(a) 2,960

na na na na

Region 223,693 266,351 320,816 97,123 1.82Queensland 4,091,546 5,027,679 6,097,144 2,005,598 2.01 Source: Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, unpublished data. Note: (a) The Aboriginal Councils in this planning region have not been separately

projected. Aggregate projections were made of all Aboriginal councils in the far north statistical division.

(b) Interim figures based on the 2006 Census have been incorporated for the non- reformed Local Government Areas of Mareeba, Herberton and Eacham Shires. (c) 2006 Census estimated resident population (ERP) preliminary rebased

Under the high series projections, the region’s population is expected to increase by 42.4 per cent throughout the 20-year period. Cairns is expected to account for three-quarters of the increase, with the remainder shared fairly evenly among the three larger sub-regions. Overall, the region is expected to grow at a rate slower than the state as a whole, which is anticipated to average 1.8 per cent per annum between 2006 and 2026. Growth is expected to vary across the region. Douglas will grow more rapidly than the state as a whole, Cairns at about the state average, while the Cassowary Coast and Tablelands sub-regions will grow more slowly. Projected age distribution of the population, 2026 Figure 4 and Table 26 show the projected age distribution across the region for 2026, from the high series projections. Some of the age groupings used here differ from those shown in other tables, reflecting availability of data. The changes do not affect the conclusions.

0102030405060708090

100Th

ousa

nds

0-14 15-39 40-64 65+

Age in years

Figure 4a: Age structure, FNQ Planning Region, 2006 and 2026

2006

2026

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Perc

enta

ge

0-14 15-39 40-64 65+

Age in years

Figure 4b: Age structure, FNQ Planning Region, 2006 and 2026

Percentage distribution

2006

2026

Sources: Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, Department of Local Government, Planning, Sport and Recreation (DLGPSR), 2006 Edition, High Series Projections

ABS, (2007) Population estimates by age and sex, Australia, by Geographic Classification [ASGC 2006], at 30 June: 2006

Table 26: Age structure of the estimated resident population of the Far North Queensland planning region, 2026 (percentage distribution) Area

0–14 years 15–39 years 40–64 years

65 + years Total

Cairns

43,857 (21.1)

73,528 (35.4)

60,094 (28.9)

30,168 (14.5)

207,647 (100.0)

Douglas

3,000 (16.5)

5,600 (30.7)

6,546 (35.9)

3,080 (16.9)

18,226 (100.0)

Cassowary Coast

5,888 (15.7)

10,416 (27.7)

12,540 (33.3)

8,773 (23.3)

37,616 (100.0)

Tablelands(a)

7,822 (15.4)

11,184 (22.0)

17,193 (33.8)

14,661 (28.8)

50,859 (100.0)

Aboriginal councils

na

na

na

na

na

Region

60,567 (19.3)

100,728 (32.0)

96,372 (30.7)

56,682 (18.0)

314,349 (100.0)

State

(19.1) (31.3) (30.2) (19.3) (100.0)

Source: Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, DLGPSR, 2006 Edition, High Series Projections Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average.

LIGHT= more than 10 per cent lower than State average (a) Population projections for the previous local government areas of Mareeba, Herberton and Eacham Shires are not interim figures

Overall, the region is expected to have a very similar age distribution to that projected for the state as a whole. However, this shields diversity in the pattern of age structure across the region. The main points are as follows:

• Cairns is projected to have higher than average proportions in the age groups below the 40s, and relatively fewer older persons. Although not shown in this table, the sub-region is projected to have a higher than average proportion of those aged 15–24 years. Its age structure is very different from that in the rest of the region.

• Douglas has comparatively few in the younger and older age groups, with a

pronounced concentration in the older working age groups. • Tablelands sub-region is expected to have an age distribution characteristic of

many rural areas of the state, with low proportions below age 40, and higher than average proportions of older groups. Only 7 per cent of the population will be in the 15–24 years age group, compared with a state average anticipated to be 12 per cent.

Cassowary Coast is expected to have almost 60 per cent of its population more

than 40 years of age by 2026. This distribution can be compared with the 2006 distribution shown in Table 8 above. The main changes in the age distribution in the region will be as follows:

• The proportion aged 65 years or older will expand more rapidly than the overall population, almost doubling its share of the regional population. In absolute terms the population in this age group will reach 56,700 people, which is more than double the 2006 figure (23,800 people). This is even more pronounced in the case of those aged 80 years or older, who are anticipated to increase from 4,400 in 2001 to 14,400 by 2026. In Tablelands and Cassowary Coast, they will form over 5 per cent of the population.

• The proportion of children will fall, but remain similar to the anticipated state

average. The actual number of children aged less than 15 years will increase slightly from 2006 to 2026. The number is expected to fall in all sub-regions except Cairns, where a rise by almost half is expected, and Douglas, where the rise is projected to be 45 per cent. These mask substantial falls projected for the more rural sub-regions. In Tablelands, the number of children will fall by almost 15 per cent by 2026.

• The proportion of 15–24 year olds will fall, although the number will increase by

more than 7,000 or 28 per cent. In Cairns, the number will rise by almost half, and in Douglas by almost 45 per cent. In Cassowary Coast and Tablelands, there is expected to be a reduction in both number and proportion in this age group.

• The proportion of adults aged 25–64 years of age will fall marginally, but this

shields an expected rise in the number in the age group by 32 per cent. However, within the region there will be significantly different growth experiences, with Douglas projected to have a 57 per cent growth in the size of the age group, Cairns 40 per cent, Cassowary Coast 26 per cent and numbers in Tablelands remaining about the same.

The main implications of this will be:

• The population size will change differentially across the age groups, with ramifications for all types of services and infrastructure.

• The growth in the school leaver/younger working age group will result in major impacts on the labour force with increased demand for post-secondary education and training required to ensure workers gain appropriate skills.

• The absolute demand on facilities and services for the elderly will increase

markedly during the period, especially (on a per capita basis) in the rural areas. • The scale of growth will generate an impact in Cairns across the range of

services and infrastructure that will be greater than elsewhere. Projected household structure in 2026 Table 27 summarises the changes anticipated in household distribution between 2006 and 2026. Table 27: Estimated household structure of residents, Far North Queensland planning region, 2026 (percentage)

Area Couple families

with children

Couple families without

children

One parent

families

Other family

Group households

Lone person

households

All households

Cairns 15,602 (19.2)

22,307 (27.5)

10,949 (13.5)

1,133 (1.4)

4,929 (6.1)

26,296 (32.4)

81,216 (100.0%)

Douglas 1,224 (16.0)

2,588 (33.7)

728 (9.5)

99 1.3)

494 (6.4)

2,539 (33.1)

7,672 (100.0%)

Cassowary Coast

3,287 (19.9)

5,509 (33.3)

1,612 (9.7)

137 (0.8)

452 (2.7)

5,549 (33.5)

16,546 (100.0%)

Tablelands 3,827 (16.8)

7,978 (35.1)

2,147 (9.4)

166 (0.7)

505 (2.2)

8,129 (35.7)

22,752 (100.0%)

Region 23,940 (18.7)

38,382 (29.9)

15,436 (12.0)

1,535 (1.2)

6,380 (5.0)

42,513 (33.2)

128,186 (100.0%)

State

(21.9)

(30.9)

(11.4)

(1.0)

(4.7)

(30.2)

(100.0%)

percentage change in

the number of

households in the

region, 2006–26

+10.0 +82.3 +72.5 +78.5 +90.0 +130.7 +72.2

percentage change in

the number of

households in the State,

2006–26

+17.9 +87.9 +71.1 +39.6 +78.6 +127.5 +71.7

Sources: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, DLGPSR; Household Projections for local government areas, 2007

Note: DARK = more than 10 per cent higher than state average LIGHT = more than 10 per cent lower than state average

The patterns that can be expected are as follows:

• Overall, the regional household structure will grow at a rate comparable with the state as a whole.

• There is expected to be a lesser proportion of families with children in the

regional population than in the state generally. This is anticipated in all the larger sub-regions, with Douglas and Tablelands the lowest—in Douglas, it is projected that three out of four households will not have dependent children.

• There is expected to be a higher proportion of lone person households in the

region than is anticipated for the state as a whole. Again this applies to all the large sub-regions, with Tablelands having the highest proportion.

• Growth of group households and ‘other’ types of families is expected to be more

rapid than in the state as a whole. This is concentrated in Cairns and Douglas especially.

• No projections have been made of the household structure for the Aboriginal

councils. In 2006 their structure was very different from that in the rest of the region and the age distribution projections shown in Table 26 are similar to the situation recorded in 2006. It is probable that the projected household structure would be likely to remain similar to that shown in Table 9.

• Overall, the major increase will be in smaller households (couples without

children and lone person households) with possible implications for an increasing need for smaller dwellings.

Summary Table 28 provides a short summary of the changes anticipated. Table 28: Summary of selected projected demographic changes, 2006–26

Area 0–14 years

15–24 years

25–44 years

45–64 years

65 years

and older

Couple families

with children

Couple families without

children

One parent

families

Lone person house-

holds Cairns

Rapid Rapid Rapid Average Rapid Minor Rapid Rapid Rapid

Douglas

Rapid Rapid Rapid Rapid Rapid Fall Rapid Rapid Rapid

Cassowary Coast

Fall Fall Average Average Rapid Average Rapid Rapid Rapid

Tablelands

Fall Fall Fall Minor Rapid Fall Rapid Average Rapid

Region

Average Average Average Average Rapid Stable Rapid Rapid Rapid

Note: Rapid growth = Increase by 40 per cent or more, 2006–26 Average growth = Increase of 20-39 per cent, 2006–26 Minor growth = Increase of 10-19 per cent, 2006–26 Stable = Increase of less than 10 per cent, 2006–26 Fall = Decrease in number, 2006–26

The projected increase in state population between 2006 and 2026 is 48 per cent. The region is above the state average (that is, expected to experience rapid growth) for the older age group and most household types. There is a clear differentiation between Cairns and Douglas, where most age groups are expected to grow steadily or rapidly, and the rest of the region.

Conclusions The Far North Queensland planning region has a demographic structure that varies significantly in some aspects from that of the state as a whole, requiring close attention to its specific needs if these are to be adequately addressed. The main implications are as follows:

• The region is expected to grow at a slightly slower rate than the state as a whole over the next two decades. However, this is varied across the region, differing by geography and the type of settlement as well as varying in terms of population numbers, specific age groups and household structure.

• The most rapid growth is expected in Cairns and Douglas. • The remainder of the region is expected to grow at rates well below the state

average. • In absolute terms, increases will occur in all sub-regions, with over three-quarters

of the regional increase in Cairns, and the other three large sub-regions sharing roughly equally the remaining growth. This has implications for the demand for services based on general population numbers.

• There will be major implications for the dynamics of living in the region as a result

of the projected changes in the age structure. The implications for social and economic sustainability, as well as services and infrastructure provision will be significantly increased during the next two decades.

• While the proportion of children will fall, numbers overall will rise slightly. There

will be a different distribution of children across the region by 2026, with consequent implications for the provision of services and infrastructure. Numbers in the age group 0–14 years in Cassowary Coast and Tablelands are projected to fall over the period.

• Households without children will comprise almost 70 per cent of households by

2026, with implications for housing need, although this may not reflect housing demand.

• Issues relating to the age group 15–24 years will remain a priority, with higher

and vocational education, household formation, sport and recreation, and providing the younger element of the labour force continuing to be a priority across the region.

• The region’s workforce will need to increase its level of reliance on older workers

if it is to maintain the labour force to support the region’s economy. • Over the next two decades the number of people aged 65 years is likely to more

than double. • Cairns and Douglas have high turnover and high growth in their population, while

the rest of the region has a population which is stable, with very low movement of residence compared to the statewide experience. This is compounded by the high levels of ownership of dwellings by residents outside Cairns and Douglas, where, in contrast, ownership levels are low.

• Urban Cairns and the coastal centres have dominated the growth pattern over

the period 1976–2006 and are projected to continue to do so. • The region is one of the main residential areas for Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islander people in this country, with significant numbers in all sub-regions. The lack of projection data on Indigenous residents is a major deficit in any demographic analysis of the region, including this one. The analysis of data from the 2006 Census highlights the significance of issues for Indigenous residents across a wide spectrum of life issues.

• The region has few residents from non-English-speaking countries, with groups

significant in other parts of Australia not concentrated in the region. This is long standing, with few from each of the main groups of migrants since the mid-1950s. Consequently, the predominant issues for these groups are ones of aging and social isolation.

The region is one of the most dynamic growth areas of Australia. It has a diverse demographic structure, experiencing the effects of both major growth and pressure in the Cairns and Douglas sub-regions and the implications of population structural change, and in some cases decline, in the rural areas. Overlaying specific local issues are those it shares with the rest of the nation:

• the transition to an aging population—with many of the implications • the need for services and infrastructure • changing employment patterns • the need for appropriate housing.

These issues all need to be worked out within the regions boundaries. Overlaying these are issues relating specifically to the needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents. Addressing these matters will be a major task for the Far North Queensland region and the rest of the nation.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Urban centres and localities—by type of settlement

Appendix 2: Specific social and economic indicators

Appendix 3: Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQ planning region, 2006–26—low series Appendix 4: Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQ planning region, 2006–26—medium series

Appendix 1

Urban centres and localities—by type of settlement Type of settlement Urban centre or locality Type of settlement Urban centre or locality

Regional centre Cairns Coastal centre or locality Bingil Bay Bramston Beach Major activity centre Atherton Cairns Northern Beaches Gordonvale Cardwell Innisfail Cooya Beach Mareeba Craiglie Smithfield Flying Fish Point Tully Mission Beach Mission Beach South Local activity centre Babinda Mount Garnet Newell Chillagoe Mourilyan Oak Beach Dimbulah Silkwood Port Douglas El Arish Wangan Tully Heads Herberton Ravenshoe Wonga Beach Johnstone South Tinaroo Wongaling Beach Kairi Tolga Kuranda Wujal Wujal Malanda Yarrabah Millaa Millaa Yungaburra Mossman

Appendix 2

Specific social and economic indicators of importance to planning

Measuring Australia’s progress: a framework for assessing progress in the social and economic domains of Australian life— dimensions and indicators of progress (excluding dimensions and indicators in the environmental domain)

Headline dimensions

Headline progress indicators

Supplementary progress indicators (edited) Other indicators Indicator used in this report

Health Life expectancy at birth proportion of people surviving to ages 25, 50 and 75.

infant mortality rate avoidable deaths incidence of all cancer incidence of heart attacks burden of disease

living with disability causes of death

indirect standardised death rate (rationale: headline indicator not available at subregional level—selected indicator allows for differences in age/sex structure)

Education and training

People aged 25–64 with a vocational or higher education qualification

education participation rate for those aged 15–19

year 7/8 to year 12 apparent retention rate

human capital stock Indigenous to non-Indigenous education

participation and attainment ratios female students as a proportion of all

students

international level of higher education

education participation rates and attainment levels for those aged 15–64

Level of highest non-school qualification for those aged 25–64

headline indicator

SEIFA index of education and occupation (indicator not available when MAP developed)

Work Unemployment rate labour force underutilisation rate proportion of people working long-term unemployment rate retrenchment rate

casual employees people working part-time

or longer hours (50 hours a week worked or more)

headline indicator

proportion of people working

unemployment to population ratios average hours per week, full-time workers

Culture and leisure (supplementary)

attendance at cultural venues and events

attendance at sports events

none

National income Real net national disposable income per capita

real gross domestic product per capita real final consumption expenditure per

capita real household consumption

expenditure per capita net national saving as a proportion of

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) real industry gross value added real gross state income per capita terms of trade population in work

selected measures of equivalised household disposable income

international comparisons of national income: gross national income

international comparisons of national income: average annual GDP growth

median individual income (rationale: selected indicator is a crude surrogate for per capita income: will be replaced once gross regional product information is updated from 1994–95)

Economic hardship

Average real equivalised weekly disposable income of households in the second and third deciles of the income distribution

indicators of economic situation by household composition

proportion of households with income less than that of 70 % of Australian households. (Rationale: crude surrogate not allowing for household composition [‘equivalisation’])

National wealth Real national net worth per capita

real national assets and liabilities per capita

real net capital stock per capita

SEIFA index of economic resources

economically demonstrated resources (minerals and energy) per capita

real net foreign debt real gross fixed capital formation per

capita mean household net worth mean value of selected household

assets and liabilities

(rationale: Indicator not available when MAP developed)

Housing No headline indicator none households in dwellings requiring an additional bedroom

households with lower than standard bedroom provision

Productivity Multifactor productivity labour productivity research and development expenditure

as a proportion of GDP investment in software as a proportion

of GDP managers and professionals as a

proportion of total employment proportion of businesses with website or

home page hours worked and quality adjusted

hours worked proportion of businesses innovating

managers and professionals as a proportion of total employment

Inflation (supplementary)

No headline indicator consumer price index domestic final demand price index total final consumption expenditure total gross fixed capital formation

none

Competitiveness and openness (supplementary)

No headline indicator trade weighted exchange rate real unit labour costs foreign ownership of Australian

enterprise Australian trade openness

none

Family, community No headline indicator proportion of children in lone mother family type proportion of

and social cohesion

families children without an employed parent. primary carers of elderly and disabled no participation in selected activities voluntary work suicide and drug-induced death rates

participation in religious activities

racism

children in lone parent families

children without an employed parent

voluntary work SEIFA Index of

relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage

Crime Victims of personal and

household crimes homicide rate imprisonment rates reported crime

rates against the person and against property

(Rationale: information availability)

Democracy, governance, and citizenship

No headline indicator proportion of eligible overseas-born residents who are citizens

voter turnout and informal votes cast volunteering rates for management,

committee and coordination work federal Parliamentary election

candidates proportion of federal parliamentarians

who are women proportion of executive managers and

board members of ASX200 companies who are women

indigenous members of federal parliaments and State and Territory legislative assemblies

voter turnout

Communication (supplementary)

No headline indicator computer ownership and internet access, households

internet access

Transport (supplementary)

passenger vehicles per 1,000 people road fatalities

households without vehicles

road traffic crashes (rationale: first indicator is one of accessibility; second is a broadened concept to cover all crashes as numbers of deaths at subregional level are highly variable on an annual basis)

Regional indicators based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures of progress framework, 2006

Area of progress: Individual Dimension Indicator

Cairns Douglas Cassowary

Coast Tablelands

Aboriginal councils

Region State

Health Indirect standardized death rate (2004–07)(a)

6.8

6.5†

6.9

7.2

16.4*

7.0

6.3

Education and training

Post-secondary education qualifications (percentage of persons aged 25–64 years)

59.6*

59.2

48.1

52.3

27.1†

56.4

59.6

SEIFA Index of Education and Occupation (standardised score)(b)

981*

921

921

944

795†

961

na

Work Unemployment rate (percentage of labour force)

4.3

2.4†

4.5

5.3

8.2*

4.4

4.8

Employed persons as % of population over 15 years)

63.1

64.9*

55.8

51.6†

62.8

59.9

58.9

Area of progress: Economics and economic resources Dimension Indicator


Coast Tablelands

Aboriginal councils

Region State

Income Median individual income (percentage of individuals with income more than the State median)

60.3*

59.2

50.9

39.0

21.9†

56.4

50.0

Economic hardship

Low income households (percentage of households with income less than that of 70% of Australian households)

25.6†

28.8

36.0

41.2*

26.3

30.2

28.5

Wealth SEIFA Index of Economic Resources (standardised score)(b)

996*

986

965

961

575†

980

na

Housing Households with lower than standard bedroom provision (percentage of households)

6.8†

11.7

9.4

8.3

29.4*

7.8

4.7

Productivity Managers and professionals (percentage of employed labour force)

27.6

25.9

26.9

31.0*

9.6†

27.8

29.5

Area of progress: Living together Dimension Indicator


Coast Tablelands

Aboriginal councils

Region State

Family, community and social

One parent households (percentage of households)

12.7

9.0†

11.0

11.0

25.9*

12.0

11.4

Cohesion Lone person households (percentage of households)

24.8

27.5*

24.0

24.9

10.1†

24.8

22.8

SEIFA Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage (standardised score)(b)

1001*

976

921

929

655†

971

na

Children without an employed parent (percentage of children)

15.5

11.2†

16.6

21.6*

18.0

16.5

14.3

Persons speaking English poorly or not at all (percentage of population)

1.3

0.6†

1.3

1.0

1.5*

1.2

1.2

Voluntary community work (percentage of population)

17.2

20.0

19.8

21.4*

13.4†

18.5

18.3

Crime Reported crimes against the person (per 100,000, 2006–07)(c)

1789*

(not separately

819†

1058

(not separately

1529

812

Reported crimes against property (per 100,000, 2006–07)(c)

6632*

available) 2647†

3433

available) 5531

5375

Democracy, governance, participation

Persons voting in 2008 council elections (percentage of enrolled voters)

80.3

78.5

85.8*

83.8

76.5†

81.6

84.5

Area of progress: Living together (cont.) Dimension Indicator


Coast Tablelands

Aboriginal Councils

Region State

Communi-cations

No internet access (percentage of households)

33.6†

36.9

45.1

42.8

87.0*

37.5

34.2

Transport Dwellings without vehicles (percentage of occupied dwellings)

8.7

9.0

8.5

6.7†

43.6*

8.5

7.9

Road traffic crashes (persons killed or injured per 1000 residents, 2003)

4.33

5.64*

4.17

4.08†

(not separately available)

4.27

4.69

Other measures of importance in planning: Structural status measures Dimension Indicator


Coast Tablelands

Aboriginal councils

Region State

Status measures

Age 0–14 years (percentage of population)

21.7

18.9†

21.3

20.9

36.2*

21.6

20.4

Age 65+ years (percentage of population)

8.7

9.7

14.2

14.9*

2.5†

10.6

12.1

Aboriginal persons (percentage of population)

5.3†

7.4

6.9

8.0

95.6*

7.4

2.8

Torres Strait Islander persons (percentage of population)

3.7

2.2

2.5

1.5†

4.7*

3.1

0.8

Persons from non-English speaking backgrounds (percentage of population)(d)

18.9*

17.0

15.2

15.7

0.7†

17.4

18.9

Public housing (percentage of occupied dwellings)

4.3

3.1

2.7†

3.2

8.0*

3.9

3.4

Sources: ABS, 2006 Census of Population and Housing, various tables—as indicated in appropriate sections of this report—unless otherwise indicated

(a) Derived from data in ABS: Deaths in Australia, Cat. No. 3302, Table 6.3 (b) ABS, SEIFA Indexes, Local Government Areas, 2006—Cat. No. 2033.0.55.001 (c) Queensland Police Service, Annual Statistical Review, 2006-07. Note ‘Cairns’ includes Cairns, Douglas, the Aboriginal councils, as well as northern Cape York Peninsula and the

Torres Strait islands; ‘Mareeba’ includes the Tablelands subregion and Etheridge Shire; ‘Innisfail’ includes the Cassowary Coast. (d) Countries included in the category ‘English speaking background’ were Australia, UK, Ireland, Canada, NZ, South Africa and USA.

Note: 1. Values that are more than 10 per cent variant from the state or national average are shown in bold type. 2. The highest subregional value is shown with * and the lowest with †. 3. No values at state level have been calculated for the SEIFA Indexes. The national norm is 1000 and 10 per cent variance is 25 points (976-1025). 4. Dimensions and indicators for the environmental domain of Measuring Australia’s Progress have not been included in this report.

Appendix 3

Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQ planning region, low series projections, 2006–26

Change 2006–26 Area 2006pr(c) 2016 2026number % p.a.

Cairns sub-region 136,558 148,353 166,084 29,526 0.98Douglas sub-region 10,947 11,414 12,916 1,969 0.83Cassowary Coast sub-region 29,601 32,044 33,058 3,457 0.55Tablelands sub-region(b) 43,627 46,185 48,518 4,891 0.53Aboriginal councils(a) 2,960 na na na naRegion 223,693 237,996 260,576 36,883 0.77Queensland 4,091,546 4,628,005 5,124,076 1,032,530 1.13

Source: Department of Infrastructure and Planning, Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, unpublished data.

Notes: (a) The Aboriginal councils in this planning region have not been separately projected. Aggregate projections were made of all Aboriginal councils in the Far North statistical division.

(b) Interim figures based on the 2006 Census have been incorporated for the non-reformed Local Government Areas of Mareeba, Herberton and Eacham Shires. (c) 2006 Census Estimated Resident Population (ERP) preliminary rebased

Appendix 4

Projections of the estimated resident population of FNQ planning region, medium series projections, 2006–26

Area 2006pr(c) 2016 2026 Change 2006–26 number % p.a. Cairns sub-region 136,558 157,720 185,873 49,315 1.55 Douglas sub-region 10,947 13,644 16,247 5,300 1.99 Cassowary Coast sub-region 29,601 32,978 35,300 5,699 0.88 Tablelands(b) sub-region 43,627 48,708 53,073 4,446 0.98 Aboriginal councils(a) 2,960 2,911 3,092 132 0.22 Region 223,693 255,961 293,585 69,892 1.37 Queensland 4,091,546 4,823,408 5,583,956 1,492,410 1.57

Sources: PIFU: Projected resident population for Local Government Areas—2006 Edition; ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2005-06—Queensland, (Cat.No. 3218.0)

Notes: (a) The future population of the Aboriginal councils in FNQ planning region was projected by PIFU using an indirect methodology. (b) Interim figures based on the 2006 Census have been incorporated for the non-reformed local government areas of Mareeba, Herberton and Eacham Shires. (c) 2006 Census Estimated Resident Population (ERP) preliminary rebased

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Far North Queensland region: a demographic profile...Far North Queensland region: a demographic profile Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Infrastructure and Planning