Farmers Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

Farmers Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation

2006 Load Forecast

Prepared by:East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.

Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

July 2006

2

Blank PageBlank Page

3

Table of Contents• Introduction and Executive Summary 5• Narrative 16

• Key Assumptions 18

• Methodology and Results 26

– Residential Forecast 31

– Small Commercial 36

– Large Commercial 38

– Other Forecast 40

– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 43

• RUS Form 341 46

Page Number

4


5

IntroductionExecutive Summary

Farmers Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation, (Farmers RECC) located in Glasgow, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in eight counties. This load forecast report contains Farmers RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.

Farmers RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.

EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Farmers RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Farmers RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 18.

6


7

Executive Summary (continued)

The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Farmers RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Farmers RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.

The complete load forecast for Farmers RECC is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.

8

Year

ResidentialSales

(MWh)

SeasonalSales

(MWh)

SmallComm.Sales

(MWh)

Public Buildings (MWh)

LargeComm.Sales

(MWh)

OtherSales

(MWh)

TotalSales

(MWh)

OfficeUse

(MWh)%

Loss

PurchasedPower(MWh)

1990 183,572 0 42,470 0 6,512 165 232,719 0 7.1 250,4371991 191,777 0 47,764 0 5,484 168 245,193 0 7.6 265,3071992 189,821 0 47,171 0 11,484 170 248,646 0 7.0 267,3411993 210,264 0 50,524 0 13,715 203 274,706 0 6.9 294,9771994 211,903 0 54,724 0 13,880 221 280,727 0 6.7 300,9121995 225,922 0 63,599 0 13,143 269 302,933 0 6.4 323,7181996 242,604 0 73,224 0 15,466 297 331,590 0 6.1 353,1501997 240,591 0 57,380 0 50,962 324 349,257 0 5.6 369,9801998 252,577 0 56,236 0 63,227 341 372,381 0 6.3 397,5361999 259,345 0 59,619 0 70,856 353 390,174 0 5.5 413,0492000 266,060 0 67,376 0 79,623 370 413,429 0 5.2 436,1732001 280,126 0 65,392 0 108,197 391 454,106 0 5.1 478,7432002 288,766 0 67,204 0 113,598 394 469,962 0 5.0 494,5522003 292,008 0 70,425 0 113,007 401 475,840 0 5.1 501,5462004 295,030 0 66,344 0 125,978 413 487,765 0 5.0 513,4342005 312,696 0 67,219 0 122,073 421 502,409 0 4.9 528,2662006 312,738 0 69,833 0 122,193 430 505,194 0 5.1 532,3432007 320,951 0 72,462 0 123,228 438 517,079 0 5.1 544,8672008 328,466 0 74,570 0 124,509 448 527,993 0 5.1 556,3682009 336,847 0 76,496 0 125,560 457 539,360 0 5.1 568,3452010 344,624 0 78,153 0 126,436 467 549,680 0 5.1 579,2202011 351,613 0 79,651 0 127,429 477 559,169 0 5.1 589,2192012 359,881 0 81,124 0 128,368 488 569,861 0 5.1 600,4852013 368,228 0 82,616 0 129,224 498 580,565 0 5.1 611,7652014 376,013 0 84,064 0 130,079 509 590,665 0 5.1 622,4082015 383,570 0 85,482 0 130,959 519 600,530 0 5.1 632,8032016 391,385 0 86,886 0 132,044 529 610,845 0 5.1 643,6722017 398,691 0 88,263 0 141,628 539 629,121 0 5.1 662,9302018 406,492 0 89,663 0 143,038 549 639,742 0 5.1 674,1222019 414,475 0 91,078 0 144,414 559 650,526 0 5.1 685,4862020 423,473 0 92,508 0 145,689 569 662,239 0 5.1 697,8282021 432,118 0 93,930 0 146,967 579 673,595 0 5.1 709,7952022 440,594 0 95,304 0 148,180 589 684,666 0 5.1 721,4612023 448,926 0 96,647 0 149,360 598 695,531 0 5.1 732,9092024 457,820 0 97,956 0 158,765 608 715,149 0 5.1 753,5812025 465,668 0 99,230 0 159,874 617 725,389 0 5.1 764,371

2006 Load ForecastFarmers RECC

MWh Summary

Table 1-1

9

Winter Summer

Season

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

PurchasedPower(MWh)

Load Factor(%)

1989 - 90 71.2 1990 53.9 1990 250,437 40.2%1990 - 91 63.4 1991 56.3 1991 265,307 47.8%1991 - 92 66.1 1992 55.2 1992 267,341 46.2%1992 - 93 67.5 1993 62.2 1993 294,977 49.9%1993 - 94 83.8 1994 62.2 1994 300,912 41.0%1994 - 95 73.9 1995 69.4 1995 323,718 50.0%1995 - 96 89.8 1996 68.6 1996 353,150 44.9%1996 - 97 89.8 1997 77.5 1997 369,980 47.0%1997 - 98 83.9 1998 82.2 1998 397,536 54.1%1998 - 99 91.7 1999 90.2 1999 413,049 51.4%1999 - 00 102.8 2000 91.6 2000 436,173 48.4%2000 - 01 99.9 2001 93.7 2001 478,743 54.7%2001 - 02 104.0 2002 102.0 2002 494,552 54.3%2002 - 03 126.7 2003 98.2 2003 501,546 45.2%2003 - 04 116.3 2004 102.6 2004 513,434 50.4%2004 - 05 121.0 2005 104.9 2005 528,266 49.8%2005 - 06 111.0 2006 104.3 2006 532,343 54.7%2006 - 07 129.9 2007 105.8 2007 544,867 47.9%2007 - 08 132.5 2008 107.4 2008 556,368 47.9%2008 - 09 136.2 2009 109.6 2009 568,345 47.7%2009 - 10 139.2 2010 111.2 2010 579,220 47.5%2010 - 11 142.0 2011 112.7 2011 589,219 47.4%2011 - 12 144.7 2012 114.1 2012 600,485 47.4%2012 - 13 148.3 2013 116.2 2013 611,765 47.1%2013 - 14 151.3 2014 117.8 2014 622,408 47.0%2014 - 15 154.3 2015 119.3 2015 632,803 46.8%2015- 16 156.9 2016 120.7 2016 643,672 46.8%2016 - 17 162.0 2017 124.2 2017 662,930 46.7%2017 - 18 165.1 2018 125.9 2018 674,122 46.6%2018 - 19 168.3 2019 127.7 2019 685,486 46.5%2019-2020 171.2 2020 129.2 2020 697,828 46.5%2020-2021 175.0 2021 131.4 2021 709,795 46.3%2021-2022 178.3 2022 133.2 2022 721,461 46.2%2022-2023 181.5 2023 135.0 2023 732,909 46.1%2023-2024 185.9 2024 138.0 2024 753,581 46.3%2024-2025 189.5 2025 140.0 2025 764,371 46.1%

Farmers RECC2006 Load Forecast

Peaks Summary

Table 1-1 (continued)

10


11

Executive Summary (continued)

Overall Results

• Total sales are projected to grow by 1.9 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to 2.3 percent which was projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.

• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 2.3 and 1.5 percent, respectively. Annual peaks are shown in Figure 1-2.

• Load factor remains steady at approximately 46% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.

12

Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)

TimePeriod Residential

Small Commercial

Large Commercial Other

Total Sales

1995-2000 3.3% 1.2% 43.4% 6.6% 6.4%2000-2005 3.3% 0.0% 8.9% 2.6% 4.0%2005-2010 2.0% 3.1% 0.7% 2.1% 1.8%2010-2015 2.2% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 1.8%2015-2020 2.0% 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0%2020-2025 1.9% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8%

1995-2005 3.3% 0.6% 25.0% 4.6% 5.2%2005-2015 2.1% 2.4% 0.7% 2.1% 1.8%2015-2025 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9%

10 Year Growth Rates

5 Year Growth Rates

Table 1-2Farmers RECC

2006 Load ForecastSummary of Sales Growth Rates

13

Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025

2.0% 2.0%

1.4%

1.9%1.9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Residential Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Other Total Sales

14

Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024

Su

m O

f S

ub

stat

ion

s P

eak

Dem

and

(M

W)

Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast

15

Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

16

Narrative Farmers RECC MembersDemographic Information

• There is an average of 2.31 people per household.

• 52% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.

• Approximately 35% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle and tobacco most popular.

• 26% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.

17

Narrative (continued)Counties Served

Farmers RECC provides service to members in 8 counties.

Figure 1-4

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Other Counties (5)

Metcalfe County

Hart County

Barren County

Number of Members

18

Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates

• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.

19

Key Assumptions (continued)Economic

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

1990 226,711 0.7% 113,838 -2.7% 109,695 2.7% 7.5% 7.2% $22,884 -1.9% $4,414 -1.7% $19,468 -2.4%

1991 229,321 1.2% 113,853 0.0% 111,285 1.4% 8.2% 10.1% $22,136 -3.3% $4,575 3.7% $19,950 2.5%

1992 232,201 1.3% 115,243 1.2% 117,077 5.2% 6.9% -15.9% $22,710 2.6% $4,868 6.4% $20,964 5.1%

1993 236,827 2.0% 117,778 2.2% 122,731 4.8% 5.8% -15.9% $22,672 -0.2% $4,948 1.6% $20,892 -0.3%

1994 240,359 1.5% 120,351 2.2% 130,239 6.1% 4.5% -22.0% $22,673 0.0% $5,203 5.1% $21,645 3.6%

1995 244,602 1.8% 123,689 2.8% 133,972 2.9% 5.3% 16.0% $23,517 3.7% $5,239 0.7% $21,417 -1.0%

1996 247,987 1.4% 125,497 1.5% 134,605 0.5% 6.9% 31.0% $24,004 2.1% $5,398 3.0% $21,767 1.6%

1997 251,565 1.4% 127,414 1.5% 137,919 2.5% 6.1% -10.9% $24,460 1.9% $5,666 5.0% $22,521 3.5%

1998 255,137 1.4% 127,889 0.4% 142,364 3.2% 4.7% -22.9% $24,888 1.7% $5,869 3.6% $23,003 2.1%

1999 257,675 1.0% 130,992 2.4% 147,107 3.3% 4.9% 3.2% $25,186 1.2% $5,958 1.5% $23,122 0.5%

2000 260,445 1.1% 130,526 -0.4% 148,598 1.0% 4.4% -9.2% $24,991 -0.8% $6,273 5.3% $24,084 4.2%

2001 261,936 0.6% 129,820 -0.5% 145,355 -2.2% 5.9% 33.3% $24,764 -0.9% $6,082 -3.0% $23,218 -3.6%

2002 263,616 0.6% 128,970 -0.7% 145,923 0.4% 5.6% -4.7% $25,374 2.5% $6,140 1.0% $23,291 0.3%

2003 266,440 1.1% 133,235 3.3% 148,030 1.4% 6.3% 11.6% $25,721 1.4% $6,228 1.4% $23,375 0.4%

2004 269,406 1.1% 134,674 1.1% 150,716 1.8% 6.4% 2.1% $25,703 -0.1% $6,316 1.4% $23,443 0.3%

2005 271,802 0.9% 135,984 1.0% 153,416 1.8% 7.0% 8.5% $25,839 0.5% $6,423 1.7% $23,633 0.8%

2006 274,313 0.9% 137,426 1.1% 156,496 2.0% 6.9% -0.1% $25,703 -0.5% $6,527 1.6% $23,796 0.7%

2007 277,044 1.0% 138,795 1.0% 159,128 1.7% 7.0% 0.2% $25,839 0.5% $6,621 1.4% $23,898 0.4%

2008 279,735 1.0% 140,101 0.9% 161,569 1.5% 6.9% -0.6% $25,954 0.4% $6,714 1.4% $24,001 0.4%

2009 282,385 0.9% 141,263 0.8% 163,525 1.2% 6.9% -0.8% $26,051 0.4% $6,799 1.3% $24,078 0.3%

2010 284,991 0.9% 142,258 0.7% 164,915 0.9% 6.9% 0.0% $26,138 0.3% $6,879 1.2% $24,139 0.3%

2015 297,793 0.9% 146,797 0.6% 170,490 0.7% 6.9% 0.0% $26,565 0.3% $7,229 1.0% $24,277 0.1%

2020 310,435 0.8% 152,523 0.8% 180,473 1.1% 6.8% 0.0% $26,790 0.2% $7,630 1.1% $24,579 0.2%

2025 323,316 0.8% 158,403 0.8% 190,813 1.1% 6.8% 0.0% $26,994 0.2% $8,020 1.0% $24,807 0.2%

2030 336,643 0.8% 163,860 0.7% 199,254 0.9% 6.8% 0.0% $27,189 0.1% $8,403 0.9% $24,962 0.1%

Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.

Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.

Central South Economic Region History and Forecast

Unemployment Rate

Regional Income

Population Labor ForceTotal

EmploymentAverage Real

WagesReal Per

Capita Income

Forecast

Long-Term Forecast

Actual

Regional Summary

EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.

20

Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served

Figure 1-5

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

Sh

are

(%

)

Farmers RECC’s market share will increase for the forecast period.

21

Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources

Figure 1-6Agriculture

12%Education

4%

Construction4%

Manufacturing19%

Retail & Service9%

Other14%

Retirement38%

22

Key Assumptions (continued)Appliance Saturations

• Room air conditioner saturation is declining due to customers choosing central air conditioning systems.

• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA). See Figure 1-7.

23

Key Assumptions (continued)Saturation Rates Non-HVAC Appliances

• Microwave Oven 98%

• Electric Range 96%

• Dishwasher 53%

• Freezer 64%

• Clothes Dryer 97%

• Personal Computer 54%

24

Key Assumptions (continued)Figure 1-7

Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Eff

icie

ncy

Rat

ing

Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)

Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)

Central Air (SEER)

Room Air (EER)

Water Heating (EF)

All of the projections are very similar to what was used in the 2004 Load Forecast. However, the 2004 Load Forecast assumption was just below 8 by 2024 whereas this update shows the trend continuing above 8.

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005

25

Key Assumptions (continued)Weather

• Weather data is from the Bowling Green weather station.

• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.

26

Methodology and ResultsIntroduction

This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Farmers RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.

A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Farmers RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.

27

Table 1-3

YearkWh Purchased

And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss

Annual

Load

Factor

Average

Number Of

Consumers

Miles

Of

Line

Consumers

Per Mile

Cost Of

Purchased Power

Cents

/ kWh

1993 294,976,545 274,705,829 20,270,716 6.9% 49.5% 17,255 3,024 5.7 $11,847,219 4.0

1994 300,911,702 2.0% 280,726,864 2.2% 20,184,838 6.7% 40.5% 17,691 3,059 5.8 $12,299,981 4.1

1995 323,717,951 7.6% 302,932,969 7.9% 20,784,982 6.4% 51.1% 18,265 3,096 5.9 $11,513,358 3.6

1996 353,150,070 9.1% 347,055,704 14.6% 6,094,366 1.7% 46.8% 18,730 3,133 6.0 $11,643,457 3.3

1997 369,980,466 4.8% 349,256,896 0.6% 20,723,570 5.6% 47.0% 19,341 3,175 6.1 $12,069,015 3.3

1998 397,535,768 7.4% 372,380,704 6.6% 25,155,064 6.3% 54.6% 19,908 3,210 6.2 $12,966,570 3.3

1999 413,049,237 3.9% 390,173,829 4.8% 22,875,408 5.5% 53.6% 20,469 3,252 6.3 $14,075,006 3.4

2000 436,172,759 5.6% 413,428,933 6.0% 22,743,826 5.2% 52.1% 21,052 3,286 6.4 $15,332,205 3.5

2001 478,742,763 9.8% 454,105,554 9.8% 24,637,209 5.1% 51.7% 21,409 3,318 6.6 $18,014,531 3.8

2002 494,551,769 3.3% 469,961,567 3.5% 24,590,202 5.0% 55.7% 21,861 3,347 6.5 $18,363,440 3.7

2003 501,546,376 1.4% 475,840,454 1.3% 25,705,922 5.1% 50.0% 22,238 3,382 6.6 $19,297,918 3.8

2004 513,434,269 2.4% 487,764,568 2.5% 25,669,701 5.0% 53.8% 22,680 3,416 6.6 $21,596,172 4.2

2005 528,265,561 2.9% 502,409,238 3.0% 25,856,323 4.9% 50.3% 23,013 3,447 6.7 $26,199,856 5.0

5.3% 3.8Average

88.0

109.0

119.8

95.7

105.7

101.4

114.5

72.3

89.8

86.1

83.1

Farmers RECC Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak

Demand

(MW)

68.0

84.9

28

Table 1-4

Year kWh Sales%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales

%

ChangekWh Sales % Change kWh Sales % Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

1993 210,263,622 0 50,524,434 13,715,000 202,773 0

1994 211,902,861 0.8% 0 54,723,701 8.3% 13,879,800 1.2% 220,502 8.7% 0

1995 225,922,365 6.6% 0 63,599,055 16.2% 13,143,000 -5.3% 268,549 21.8% 0

1996 242,603,504 7.4% 0 88,689,620 39.5% 15,466,000 17.7% 296,580 10.4% 0

1997 240,591,309 -0.8% 0 57,380,385 -35.3% 50,961,600 229.5% 323,602 9.1% 0

1998 252,577,282 5.0% 0 56,235,630 -2.0% 63,226,800 24.1% 340,992 5.4% 0

1999 259,345,277 2.7% 0 59,619,042 6.0% 70,856,400 12.1% 353,110 3.6% 0

2000 266,060,006 2.6% 0 67,375,611 13.0% 79,623,000 12.4% 370,316 4.9% 0

2001 280,125,751 5.3% 0 65,392,261 -2.9% 108,196,800 35.9% 390,742 5.5% 0

2002 288,766,006 3.1% 0 67,204,020 2.8% 113,598,000 5.0% 393,541 0.7% 0

2003 292,007,981 1.1% 0 70,424,778 4.8% 113,007,000 -0.5% 400,695 1.8% 0

2004 295,030,294 1.0% 0 66,343,851 -5.8% 125,977,810 11.5% 412,613 3.0% 0

2005 312,696,193 6.0% 0 67,218,794 1.3% 122,073,200 -3.1% 421,051 2.0% 0

2 Year 10,344,106 3.5% -1,602,992 -2.3% 4,533,100 3.9% 10,178 2.5% 0

5 Year 9,327,237 3.3% -31,363 0.0% 8,490,040 8.9% 10,147 2.6% 0

10 Year 8,677,383 3.3% 361,974 0.6% 10,893,020 25.0% 15,250 4.6%

Average Annual Change

Farmers RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial / I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway Lighting

Public

Authorities

29

Table 1-5

Year Consumerskwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo.

1993 16,379 1,070 0 868 4,851 2 571,458 6 2,816 0

1994 16,802 1,051 0 881 5,176 2 578,325 6 3,063 0

1995 17,334 1,086 0 923 5,742 1 1,095,250 7 3,197 0

1996 17,770 1,138 0 952 7,763 1 1,288,833 7 3,531 0

1997 18,330 1,094 0 1,000 4,782 4 1,061,700 7 3,852 0

1998 18,837 1,117 0 1,059 4,425 5 1,053,780 7 4,059 0

1999 19,363 1,116 0 1,094 4,541 5 1,180,940 7 4,204 0

2000 19,860 1,116 0 1,180 4,758 5 1,327,050 7 4,409 0

2001 20,049 1,164 0 1,347 4,046 6 1,502,733 7 4,652 0

2002 20,438 1,177 0 1,410 3,972 5 1,893,300 8 4,099 0

2003 20,774 1,171 0 1,451 4,045 5 1,883,450 8 4,174 0

2004 21,175 1,161 0 1,491 3,708 6 1,749,692 8 4,298 0

2005 21,461 1,214 0 1,538 3,642 6 1,695,461 8 4,386 0

10 Year Avg. 413 13 62 -210 1 60,021 0 119

5 Year Avg. 320 20 72 -223 0 73,682 0 -5

2 Year Avg. 344 21 44 -201 1 -93,994 0 106

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumers 423 532 436 560 507 526 497 189 389 336 401 286

kWh/ month -19 35 52 -44 24 -1 0 48 13 -6 -10 53

Annual Changes I n Farmer's Residential Class

Farmers RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway LightingPublic Authorities

30

Methodology and Results (continued)

The preliminary forecast was presented to Farmers RECC staff, and reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Farmers RECC staff. Input from EKPC and Farmers RECC results in the best possible forecast.

31

Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast

Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Farmers RECC’s customer forecast.

The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Farmers RECC’s energy forecast.

32

Use Per Customer Class Sales

TotalAnnual

Average

AnnualAverage

(excluding ETS)

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 15,481 15,160 1,009 183,5721991 15,753 15,432 272 1.8 1,036 27 2.6 191,777 8,205 4.51992 16,002 15,682 250 1.6 1,009 -27 -2.6 189,821 -1,956 -1.01993 16,379 16,059 377 2.4 1,091 82 8.2 210,264 20,443 10.81994 16,802 16,481 422 2.6 1,071 -20 -1.8 211,903 1,639 0.81995 17,334 17,013 532 3.2 1,107 35 3.3 225,922 14,020 6.61996 17,771 17,450 437 2.6 1,159 52 4.7 242,604 16,681 7.41997 18,330 18,009 559 3.2 1,113 -45 -3.9 240,591 -2,012 -0.81998 18,837 18,516 507 2.8 1,137 23 2.1 252,577 11,986 5.01999 19,363 19,042 526 2.8 1,135 -2 -0.2 259,345 6,768 2.72000 19,860 19,539 497 2.6 1,135 0 0.0 266,060 6,715 2.62001 20,049 19,728 189 1.0 1,183 49 4.3 280,126 14,066 5.32002 20,438 20,117 389 2.0 1,196 13 1.1 288,766 8,640 3.12003 20,774 20,438 321 1.6 1,191 -6 -0.5 292,008 3,242 1.12004 21,175 20,843 405 2.0 1,180 -11 -0.9 295,030 3,022 1.02005 21,461 21,140 297 1.4 1,233 53 4.5 312,696 17,666 6.02006 21,482 342 1.6 1,213 -19 -1.6 312,738 41 0.02007 21,815 333 1.6 1,226 13 1.1 320,951 8,213 2.62008 22,169 354 1.6 1,235 9 0.7 328,466 7,515 2.32009 22,535 366 1.7 1,246 11 0.9 336,847 8,381 2.62010 22,892 357 1.6 1,255 9 0.7 344,624 7,777 2.32011 23,264 372 1.6 1,260 5 0.4 351,613 6,989 2.02012 23,638 374 1.6 1,269 9 0.7 359,881 8,268 2.42013 24,016 378 1.6 1,278 9 0.7 368,228 8,347 2.32014 24,395 379 1.6 1,284 7 0.5 376,013 7,786 2.12015 24,771 376 1.5 1,290 6 0.5 383,570 7,557 2.02016 25,141 370 1.5 1,297 7 0.5 391,385 7,815 2.02017 25,497 356 1.4 1,303 6 0.4 398,691 7,306 1.92018 25,850 353 1.4 1,310 7 0.6 406,492 7,801 2.02019 26,203 353 1.4 1,318 8 0.6 414,475 7,983 2.02020 26,557 354 1.4 1,329 11 0.8 423,473 8,998 2.22021 26,900 343 1.3 1,339 10 0.7 432,118 8,646 2.02022 27,239 339 1.3 1,348 9 0.7 440,594 8,475 2.02023 27,577 338 1.2 1,357 9 0.6 448,926 8,332 1.92024 27,906 329 1.2 1,367 11 0.8 457,820 8,894 2.02025 28,231 325 1.2 1,375 7 0.5 465,668 7,848 1.7

Customers


Residential Summary

Table 1-6

Note: In order to accurately forecast residential accounts, given customers with ETS units have more than one meter, ETS accounts are excluded from the customer count, however, the energy is included.

33

Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ust

om

ers

34


35

Figure 1-9

Farmers RECCResidential MWh Usage, History and Forecast

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

Jan-99

Jul-99

Jan-00

Jul-00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

MW

h

Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage

36

Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast

Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.

37

Table 1-7

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

AnnualAverage(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 727 58 42,4701991 796 69 9.5 60 2 3.4 47,764 5,294 12.51992 852 56 7.0 55 -5 -8.3 47,171 -593 -1.21993 868 16 1.9 58 3 5.5 50,524 3,354 7.11994 881 13 1.5 62 4 6.9 54,724 4,199 8.31995 923 42 4.8 69 7 11.3 63,599 8,875 16.21996 951 28 3.0 77 8 11.6 73,224 9,625 15.11997 1,000 49 5.2 57 -20 -26.0 57,380 -15,843 -21.61998 1,059 59 5.9 53 -4 -7.0 56,236 -1,144 -2.01999 1,094 35 3.3 54 1 1.9 59,619 3,383 6.02000 1,180 86 7.9 57 3 5.6 67,376 7,757 13.02001 1,347 167 14.2 49 -8 -14.0 65,392 -1,983 -2.92002 1,410 63 4.7 48 -1 -2.0 67,204 1,812 2.82003 1,451 41 2.9 49 1 2.1 70,425 3,221 4.82004 1,491 40 2.8 44 -5 -10.2 66,344 -4,081 -5.82005 1,538 47 3.2 44 0 0.0 67,219 875 1.32006 1,567 29 1.9 45 1 2.3 69,833 2,615 3.92007 1,597 30 1.9 45 0 0.0 72,462 2,628 3.82008 1,632 35 2.2 46 1 2.2 74,570 2,108 2.92009 1,671 39 2.4 46 0 0.0 76,496 1,926 2.62010 1,710 39 2.3 46 0 0.0 78,153 1,657 2.22011 1,752 42 2.5 45 -1 -2.2 79,651 1,498 1.92012 1,795 43 2.5 45 0 0.0 81,124 1,474 1.92013 1,839 44 2.5 45 0 0.0 82,616 1,491 1.82014 1,884 45 2.4 45 0 0.0 84,064 1,449 1.82015 1,929 45 2.4 44 -1 -2.2 85,482 1,418 1.72016 1,973 44 2.3 44 0 0.0 86,886 1,404 1.62017 2,016 43 2.2 44 0 0.0 88,263 1,377 1.62018 2,058 42 2.1 44 0 0.0 89,663 1,400 1.62019 2,101 43 2.1 43 -1 -2.3 91,078 1,415 1.62020 2,144 43 2.0 43 0 0.0 92,508 1,430 1.62021 2,186 42 2.0 43 0 0.0 93,930 1,423 1.52022 2,227 41 1.9 43 0 0.0 95,304 1,374 1.52023 2,269 42 1.9 43 0 0.0 96,647 1,343 1.42024 2,309 40 1.8 42 -1 -2.3 97,956 1,309 1.42025 2,349 40 1.7 42 0 0.0 99,230 1,274 1.3


Small Commercial Summary

38

Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast

Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Farmers RECC currently has six customers in this class and is projected to increase to eight customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.

39

Table 1-8


AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

Annual Average(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 1 6,512 6,5121991 1 0 0.0 5,484 -1,028 -15.8 5,484 -1,028 -15.81992 2 1 100.0 5,742 258 4.7 11,484 6,000 109.41993 2 0 0.0 6,858 1,115 19.4 13,715 2,231 19.41994 2 0 0.0 6,940 82 1.2 13,880 165 1.21995 1 -1 -50.0 13,143 6,203 89.4 13,143 -737 -5.31996 1 0 0.0 15,466 2,323 17.7 15,466 2,323 17.71997 4 3 300.0 12,740 -2,726 -17.6 50,962 35,496 229.51998 5 1 25.0 12,645 -95 -0.7 63,227 12,265 24.11999 5 0 0.0 14,171 1,526 12.1 70,856 7,630 12.12000 5 0 0.0 15,925 1,753 12.4 79,623 8,767 12.42001 6 1 20.0 18,033 2,108 13.2 108,197 28,574 35.92002 5 -1 -16.7 22,720 4,687 26.0 113,598 5,401 5.02003 5 0 0.0 22,601 -118 -0.5 113,007 -591 -0.52004 6 1 20.0 20,996 -1,605 -7.1 125,978 12,971 11.52005 6 0 0.0 20,346 -651 -3.1 122,073 -3,905 -3.12006 6 0 0.0 20,366 20 0.1 122,193 120 0.12007 6 0 0.0 20,538 172 0.8 123,228 1,035 0.82008 6 0 0.0 20,751 213 1.0 124,509 1,281 1.02009 6 0 0.0 20,927 175 0.8 125,560 1,051 0.82010 6 0 0.0 21,073 146 0.7 126,436 877 0.72011 6 0 0.0 21,238 165 0.8 127,429 992 0.82012 6 0 0.0 21,395 157 0.7 128,368 939 0.72013 6 0 0.0 21,537 143 0.7 129,224 856 0.72014 6 0 0.0 21,680 143 0.7 130,079 855 0.72015 6 0 0.0 21,826 147 0.7 130,959 880 0.72016 6 0 0.0 22,007 181 0.8 132,044 1,085 0.82017 7 1 16.7 20,233 -1,775 -8.1 141,628 9,584 7.32018 7 0 0.0 20,434 201 1.0 143,038 1,410 1.02019 7 0 0.0 20,631 197 1.0 144,414 1,376 1.02020 7 0 0.0 20,813 182 0.9 145,689 1,275 0.92021 7 0 0.0 20,995 183 0.9 146,967 1,278 0.92022 7 0 0.0 21,169 173 0.8 148,180 1,213 0.82023 7 0 0.0 21,337 169 0.8 149,360 1,180 0.82024 8 1 14.3 19,846 -1,491 -7.0 158,765 9,406 6.32025 8 0 0.0 19,984 139 0.7 159,874 1,108 0.7


Large Commercial Summary

40

Methodology and Results (continued)Other Forecast

Farmers RECC serves street light accounts which are classified in the ‘Other’ category. This class is modeled separately. Results are reported in Table 1-9.

41

Table 1-9


AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 5 2,750 1651991 5 0 0.0 2,805 55 2.0 168 3 2.01992 5 0 0.0 2,831 26 0.9 170 2 0.91993 6 1 20.0 2,816 -15 -0.5 203 33 19.41994 6 0 0.0 3,063 246 8.7 221 18 8.71995 7 1 16.7 3,197 134 4.4 269 48 21.81996 7 0 0.0 3,531 334 10.4 297 28 10.41997 7 0 0.0 3,852 322 9.1 324 27 9.11998 7 0 0.0 4,059 207 5.4 341 17 5.41999 7 0 0.0 4,204 144 3.6 353 12 3.62000 7 0 0.0 4,409 205 4.9 370 17 4.92001 7 0 0.0 4,652 243 5.5 391 20 5.52002 8 1 14.3 4,099 -552 -11.9 394 3 0.72003 8 0 0.0 4,174 75 1.8 401 7 1.82004 8 0 0.0 4,298 124 3.0 413 12 3.02005 8 0 0.0 4,386 88 2.0 421 8 2.02006 8 0 0.0 4,476 90 2.1 430 9 2.12007 8 0 0.0 4,566 89 2.0 438 9 2.02008 8 0 0.0 4,663 97 2.1 448 9 2.12009 8 0 0.0 4,765 102 2.2 457 10 2.22010 8 0 0.0 4,865 100 2.1 467 10 2.12011 8 0 0.0 4,971 106 2.2 477 10 2.22012 8 0 0.0 5,078 107 2.2 488 10 2.22013 8 0 0.0 5,187 109 2.1 498 10 2.12014 8 0 0.0 5,297 110 2.1 509 11 2.12015 8 0 0.0 5,407 109 2.1 519 10 2.12016 8 0 0.0 5,515 108 2.0 529 10 2.02017 8 0 0.0 5,619 104 1.9 539 10 1.92018 8 0 0.0 5,723 104 1.8 549 10 1.82019 8 0 0.0 5,827 104 1.8 559 10 1.82020 8 0 0.0 5,931 104 1.8 569 10 1.82021 8 0 0.0 6,032 101 1.7 579 10 1.72022 8 0 0.0 6,132 100 1.7 589 10 1.72023 8 0 0.0 6,232 100 1.6 598 10 1.62024 8 0 0.0 6,329 97 1.6 608 9 1.62025 8 0 0.0 6,426 96 1.5 617 9 1.5


Other Summary

42


43

Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios

Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Farmers RECC’s peak demands. Table 1-10 and Figure 1-10 report the impact of extreme weather on system demands.

44

Table 1-10

Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures

Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme

Degrees 10 2 -6 -11 -19 Degrees 96 101 103 106

Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%

Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW

Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme

2006 104 118 124 133

2006 - 07 122 130 138 143 152 2007 106 120 126 134

2007 - 08 124 132 141 146 155 2008 107 122 128 137

2008 - 09 127 136 145 151 159 2009 110 124 130 139

2009 - 10 130 139 148 154 163 2010 111 126 133 142

2010 - 11 133 142 151 157 167 2011 113 128 134 144

2011 - 12 135 145 154 161 170 2012 114 130 136 146

2012 - 13 138 148 158 165 175 2013 116 132 139 148

2013 - 14 141 151 162 168 179 2014 118 134 141 151

2014 - 15 144 154 165 172 182 2015 119 136 143 153

2015- 16 146 157 168 175 186 2016 121 138 145 155

2016 - 17 151 162 173 180 192 2017 124 141 149 159

2017 - 18 153 165 177 184 196 2018 126 143 151 161

2018 - 19 156 168 180 188 200 2019 128 145 153 164

2019-2020 159 171 183 191 203 2020 129 147 155 166

2020-2021 162 175 188 196 208 2021 131 150 157 169

2021-2022 165 178 191 199 212 2022 133 152 160 171

2022-2023 168 181 195 203 216 2023 135 154 162 173

2023-2024 172 186 199 208 222 2024 138 157 165 177

2024-2025 176 189 203 212 226 2025 140 160 168 180

Farmers RECCPeak Day Weather Scenarios

45

Figure 1-10

Farmers RECC - Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Pea

k M

W

Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer

46

RUS Form 341

47

Form 341Form 341

Documents

Farmers Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department