Fast Forwarding to a World of On-Demand Air Transportation · 5/15/2017 · min vtol range [m] 20 evtol count [% capacity] 170 5 1.0 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 dallas, tx 5 75 sec 45 sec

Jon PetersenHead of Data Science, Advanced ProgramsUber Technologies

Fast Forwarding to a World of On-Demand Air Transportation

Smart Urban Transportation Forum IMA University of Minnesota

May 15, 2017

Rich problems

dynamic pricing

revenue management

uberPOOL

uberEATS

spatio-temporal forecasting

driver positioning

stochastic routing

map matching many more…

dispatch

latent demand modeling

anomaly detection

Uber Elevate

Noise

Speed

EfficiencyEmissions

Safety (thus cost)

Over a dozen VTOL companies developing prototypes to deploy within the next three years

Volocopter

Ehang

Lilium Zee.Aero

A^3/AirbusJoby Aviation

Very quiet compared with combustion engines, Many rotors -> lower tip speedInherently safer: Redundancy is tolerant of failures, partial autonomy2X safer than drivingEmissions: Electric has zero operational emissions10x more efficient: 3-4x improvement from tiltrotor, 3x improvement in fixed wing

Distributed Electric Propulsion + Fixed Wing

Vehicle Designs

multicopter autogyro helicopter co-axial helicopter

compound helicopter lift + cruise vectored

thrust tilt duct tilt wing tilt rotor

en-route cruise speed [mph] 50 100 100 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

lift/drag 1.5 3.5 4.25 5.5 9 10 10 10 12 14

disc-loading [lbs/ft2] 3.75 3.75 4.5 7 4.5 15 40 40 15 15

FOM 0.60 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.60 0.50 0.60 0.65 0.65

empty weight/gross weight 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

en-route energy [kwH/mile] 6.07 2.6 2.14 1.65 1.01 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.76 0.65

efficient cruise

efficient takeoff & landing

Where to build infrastructure?

What are the network dynamics?

What does a good network need?

Flux Optimizer Beyond the Vehicle…

1. Estimate Demand

2. Generate Candidate Hubs

3. Hub Optimization

4. VTOL Route Optimization

Flux Optimizer Under the Hood

1. Estimate Demand


3. Hub Optimization


k-means clustering on trip points

centroids define candidate hubs

also supports hubs defined by the user


1. Estimate Demand


3. Hub Optimization


An itinerary (o,d,i,j) is valid if the time saved s(o,d,i,j) exceeds some threshold s*:

maximize time savings of all riders

s(o, d, i, j) = x(o, d)| {z }ground time

�

2

4⌧(o, i) + ⌧(L) + ⌧(i, j) + +⌧(U) + ⌧(j, d)| {z }

VTOL time

3

5

� s

⇤x(o, d)

GOALFlux Optimizer Under the Hood

1. Estimate Demand


3. Hub Optimization


• all eligible VTOL itineraries • set of candidate hubs H • user inputs

Optimize subset of hubs H* to maximize coverage

GIVENFlux Optimizer Under the Hood

1. Estimate Demand


3. Hub Optimization


• optimal hub placements • trips


DECIDE• sequence of flight legs • assign riders to VTOLs • when/where/how much to recharge • when/where to deadhead • when to depart (savings vs. load)

GIVEN

Hub Optimization

DFW Hub OptimizationDFW

DFW Rolling Out InfrastructureDFW

1, 2

Rider Coverage = 15.2%+ 3, 4, 5 + 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Rider Coverage = 42.2% Rider Coverage = 47.3%

Dubai Hub OptimizationDubai

2 Hubs 5 Hubs 10 Hubs 50 Hubs

86%52%23% 69%

% Trip Coverage

Minneapolis/St. Paul Hub OptimizationMinneapolis/St. Paul

VTOL Route Optimization

VTOL Routing ModelMulticommodity Network Flow Model

VTOL Routing Modelground arcs (battery charging)

Better modeling approach:identify path P that is a minimum cover

valid for (v,P)

then lift following arcs following the final arc in P following arcs following the final arc in

EN-ROUTE SPEED [mph]

170

MINIMUM GROUND TIME [min]

5

TRIP VOLUME [1.0 = reference]

1.0

RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]

15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5 6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

150

1.7

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]

30 3520 25 40 - 100

MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [%]

4030 45 5035 55

eVTOL COUNT [% CAPACITY]

30


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

150

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20


40

30


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

3

3520 25DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

40 - 100

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5 6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

150

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi! 2 mi!


30 3520 25

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

Demand may be met using ~ 40% of vehicle capacity

Load factor ~ 1.55 per flight


30


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

150

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100





# OF HUB

ASCEND

DECEND

eVTOL RANGE

AIRSPACE SEP.

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20


170

5

1.0

15

1 2 43 5 6

20

DALLAS, TX

5

75 sec

45 sec

20-120 mi

! 2 mi

40

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


30

EN-ROUTE SPEED

MINIMUM GROUND TIME


RECHARGE MINUTES

15

3

50

35

2

0.3

20 25

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

10

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi! 2 mi!

SEAT COUNT

1 2

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100SEAT COUNT

2 3

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

EN-ROUTE SPEED

MINIMUM GROUND TIME


RECHARGE MINUTES

3 4

100

20

0.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20

OU

TPU

T


170


5


1.0


4

200

6

100

20 25 30

0.7 1.3

150

1.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20

SEAT COUNT

4 5 6

OU

TPU

T

most sharing of VTOLs is attained with 3 seats

routes with highest load factors

Frisco DFW Downtown Dallas


30


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

150

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20



170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

3

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

40

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


30SEAT COUNT

3520 25DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

[mph]

170

MINIMUM GROUND TIME


[20-90%]

1 2 43 5 6

1.3

2010

5

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS


170

MINIMUM GROUND TIME

5


1.0


15

1

3 4

50

2 43 5 6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi! 2 mi!

5 min MGT- Las Colinas

[min]


[20-90%]

OU

TPU

T

[mph]

170



[20-90%]

1.3

[min]


[20-90%]

200

1.7

3 min MGT+ North Denton


30


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

20050

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

150

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20


170


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

20050

3

100 150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

40

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


30SEAT COUNT

1 2 43 5

35

6

20 25DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

[mph]

170

MINIMUM GROUND TIME


[20-90%]

1 2 43 5 6

2010

5

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS


170

MINIMUM GROUND TIME

5


1.0


15

3 4

50

2 6

100

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi! 2 mi!

170 mph cruise

[min]


[20-90%]

200

1.7

[min]


[20-90%]

200

1.7

[min]


[20-90%]

200

1.7

200 mph cruise


30


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

20 25 30

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100


170 20050 100 150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55



5


1.0

MIN SAVINGS THRESHOLD [m]

15

SEAT COUNT

1 2 43 5 6

20 25 30

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

40


170

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

20


30 3520 25DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi! 2 mi!

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100

2010


SEAT COUNT# OF HUB

ASCEND

DECEND

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

INP

UT

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


5


1.0


SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

2 43 5 6

2 6

0.70.3 1.3 1.7MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010

eVTOL RANGE

AIRSPACE SEP.


15 20 25 30


170 20050 100 150zz

Charging only at mega vertiports RIDERS SERVED

- 4.0%TIME SAVED

+ 0.0%

eVTOL UTILIZATION

- 2.3%DEADHEADS PER eVTOL

+0.5%LOAD FACTOR

+1.5%

-17%BATTERY CHARGE AT LANDING

OU

TPU

TO

UTP

UT

OU

TPU

T


30


5


1.0

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100


170 20050 100 150

15 20 25 30RECHARGE MINUTES [20-90%]

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55


30


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

1.7

DALLAS, TX

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

20-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100


170 20050 100 150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

20 25 30


30


5


1.0


15

SEAT COUNT

1

3 4

2 43 5

35

6

2 6

0.70.3 1.3

20 25

1.7

DUBAI, UAE

# OF HUB

5

ASCEND

75 sec

DECEND

45 sec

eVTOL RANGE

10-120 mi

AIRSPACE SEP.

! 2 mi

OU

TPU

T

INP

UT

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

40 - 100


170 20050 100 150

MIN VTOL RANGE [m]

2010


4030 45 5035 55

20 25 30

DUBAI, UAE# VTOLs Rider Capacity Minimum Ground Time

Cruise Speed Trip Volume (Rider Savings) Min Rider Savings

What if pick-up times were longer?Simulate ETAs +10%, +25%, +50%

vehicle design (speed, battery consumption)

Incorporating stochasticity

Ongoing & Future Work

Air Traffic Management

VTOL travel times

latent demand

Flight planning for noise abatement

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM)

Irregular Operations

Marketplace Optimization: Pricing, Dispatch, Pooling

www.uber.com/info/elevate/

www.uber.com/info/elevate/summit/

more about Uber Elevate:

Uber Elevate summit videos:

Questions, comments: [email protected]

Thanks!

Questions?

Documents

Fast Forwarding to a World of On-Demand Air Transportation · 5/15/2017 · min vtol range [m] 20 evtol count [% capacity] 170 5 1.0 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 dallas, tx 5 75 sec 45 sec