FASTNET

FASTNET: Year 1 Plan

• FASTNET Long-term plan development– Task 0 (Recommended) : Facilitate community-based FASNET long-term plan

development

• Real-time data inventory & demonstration– Task 1: Prioritize available data– Task 2: Identify special processing & archiving (ASOS, GOES ?)

– Task 3: Demonstrate special processing & archiving (ASOS, GOES ?)

• Natural aerosol event analysis– Task 4: Detailed analysis of a past event (2001 Quebec smoke/EUS Sulfate)

– Task 5: Rapid analysis of a future event (probably a summer 04 smoke event)

FASTNET: Long-term plan (Year 1 activity)

Near Real-time Natural Event Analysis• Acquire and archive (the volatile) real-time data on PM/haze for current events (2004+). (ASOS, GOES)

• Determine real-time the space-time-composition-optics pattern of PM for events over North America (one future event)

• Estimate the origin (natural/manmade), PM2.5 fraction and visibility impairment by source type and aerosol species for class I areas (one recent event)

• Provide fast notification and characterization (space-time pattern, projected impacts) to a broad “user community” and solicit non-routine data, feedback and expertise from the community (prototype )

Retrospective Natural Event Analysis• For major natural events, synthesize rapidly available information with slower data streams, e.g. aerosol

chemistry; estimate the impact on Class I areas (one recent event)

• Quantify the contribution of smaller (more frequent) natural aerosol events and and the “just discernable” natural/manmade distinction

• Statistically characterize the long-term natural aerosol composition and visibility impacts for Class I areas

• Extend these analyses to the baseline period (2000-2004) of the Regional Haze rule

• Provide natural aerosol emission estimates for selected aerosol/haze modeling periods

Data Analysis MatrixData Sources, Tools for Analysis and Collaboration, Products and Decision Support

• sagfsdh

Real-time AnalysisDays

Retrospective Anal.Months-years

Near-ForecastsDays

Long-ForecastsYears

Data Sources & Types

EPA PM2.5Mass

NWS ASOS Visibility, WEBCAMs

NASA MODIS, GOES, TOMS etc. NOAA WEATHER & Wind

NAAPS MODEL Simulation

All the Real-Time data +

NPS IMPROVE Aer. Chem.

EPA Speciation

EPA PM10/PM2.5

EPA CMAQ Full Chem. Model

NAAPS MODEL Forecast

NOAA/EPA CMAQ?

EPA & RPO CMAQ?

Data Analysis Tools & Methods

Spatio-temporal overlays

Multi-sensory data integration

Back & forward trajectories

Pattern analysis

Full chemical model simulation

Diagnostic & inverse modeling

Chemical source apportionment

Multiple event statistics

Emission and met. forecasts

Full chemical model

Data assimilation

Parcel tagging, tracking

Emission and met. forecast

Full chemical model

Communication Collaboration Coordination Methods

Analyst and managers consoles

Open, inclusive communication

Data assimilation methods

Community data & idea sharing

Tech Reports for reg. support

Peer reviewed scientific papers

Science-AQ mgmt. interaction

Reconciliation of perspectives

Open, public forecasts

Model-data comparison

Modeler-data analyst comm.

Analysis

Products

Current Aerosol Pattern

Evolving Event Summary

Causality (dust, smoke, sulfate)

Quantitative natural aer. concr.

Natural source attribution

Comparison to manmade aer.

Future natural emissions

Simulated conc. pattern

Future location of high conc.

Future natural emissions

Simulated conc. pattern

Decision Support

Jurisdiction: nat./manmade

Triggers for management action

Public information & decisions

Jurisdiction: nat./manmade

State Implementation Plans, (SIP)

PM/Haze Crit. Documents, Regs

Management action triggers

Public info. & decisions

Statutory & policy changes

Long-term planning

Progress tracking

FASTNET: Long-term plan

Near Real-time Natural Event Analysis• Acquire and archive (the volatile) real-time data on PM/haze for current events (2004+).

• Determine real-time the space-time-composition-optics pattern of PM for events over North America

• Estimate the origin (natural/manmade), PM2.5 fraction and visibility impairment by source type and aerosol species for class I areas

• Provide fast notification and characterization (space-time pattern, projected impacts) to a broad “user community” and solicit non-routine data, feedback and expertise from the community

Retrospective Natural Event Analysis• For major natural events, synthesize rapidly available information with slower data streams, e.g.

aerosol chemistry; estimate the impact on Class I areas

• Quantify the contribution of smaller (more frequent) natural aerosol events and and the “just discernable” natural/manmade distinction

• Statistically characterize the long-term natural aerosol composition and visibility impacts for Class I areas

• Extend these analyses to the baseline period (2000-2004) of the Regional Haze rule

• Provide natural aerosol emission estimates for selected aerosol/haze modeling periods

Regional Haze Rule: Natural Aerosol

Goal is to attain natural conditions by 2064;

Baseline is established during 2000-2004

First SIP & Natural Cond. estimate in 2008;

SIP & Natural Cond. Revisions every 10 yrs

Natural haze is due to natural windblown dust, biomass smoke and other natural processes

Man-made haze is due industrial activities AND man-perturbed smoke and dust emissions

A fraction of the man-perturbed smoke and dust is assigned to natural by policy decisions

Summary of EPA Haze Rule on Natural Conditions

• The goal of the EPA visibility program is reaching the natural visibility conditions.

• Estimating the overall visibility conditions and the natural conditions establishes how ‘‘close’’ a Class I area is to the goal, i.e. the magnitude of the human-induced ‘exceedance’ over the natural.

• The default annual natural visibility is 11-12 deciview for the East, 8 dv for the West.

• The regional natural visibility is to be derived from sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and crustal material estimates using IMPROVE methodology.

• EPA along with States, tribes, and FLMs to develop and refine the technical guidance on estimating natural conditions (e.g. natural fire and dust)

• States, in turn, will work with the FLMs, tribes and EPA in estimating their natural conditions using these guidelines at each Class I area.

• The Regional Haze Rule provides initial default values for the Natural Haze Conditions

• The default haze for the West is 8 deciviews while for the East is 11 deciviews

• Obtained by estimating the natural concentration of SO4, EC, OC, NO3, Fine, Coarse Soil

• Weighing each aerosol component by corresponding extinction efficiencies. (Trijonis, 1990)

Significant Natural Contributions to Haze by RPO Judged qualitatively based on current surface and satellite data

• Natural forest fires and windblown dust are judged to be the key contributors to regional haze• The dominant natural sources include locally produced and long-range transported smoke and dust• This project will quantify the absolute and relative contribution of natural sources for each RPO

WRAP

Local Smoke

Local Dust

Asian Dust

VISTAS

Local Smoke

Sahara Dust

MRPO

Local Smoke

Canada Smoke

Local Dust

CENRAP

Local Smoke

Mexico/Canada Smoke

Local Dust

Sahara Dust

MANE-VU

Canada Smoke

Natural Aerosol Episodicity –> FASTNET

Task 1: Develop a Web-based Catalog of Haze-relevant Real-time Data

• Develop a list of haze-relevant real-time data sources

• Describe the accessibility and other features of each dataset

• Prioritize the dataset list by suitability for FASTNET

• Expose the dataset list for community contributions and comments.

Task 2: Identify useful real-time data for archiving and processing

• Identify haze-relevant real-time datasets that require archiving

• Identify haze-relevant real-time data that require ‘expert processing’

Task 3: Real-Time Acquisition, Processing, Arching and Delivery of ASOS Visibility Data

• Acquire in real time ASOS weather data from the combined 1200 station NWS-FAA-DOD ASOS network made public through the NOAA Weather Service websites.

• Develop and implement ‘expert processing algorithms’ for the processing of truncated ASOS visibility monitoring data using filters and correction factors for:– Data quality

– Weather influence

• Develop and implement ‘expert processing algorithms’ for the processing of original (not) truncated ASOS visibility

• Develop an archival and open data access system for 1200 station, hourly, truncated but ‘expert processed’ ASOS visibility data.

Task 4: Historical natural event analysis

• Acquisition of multiple haze-relevant information sources

• Processing and integration of multi-sensory data

• Analyze the historical natural aerosol event (smoke or dust)– Establish the origins of the aerosol emission

– Spatial and temporal aerosol concentrations patterns, incl. speciated mass

– Estimate visibility impairment (reconstructed extinction) during the event

– Estimate the absolute and contribution of the natural source.

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Integration with EPA and other surface data• ESE data will be processed and combined with EPA particulate matter data to generate data products useful

for PM management. For surface data, relevant EPA metadata and XML standards will be used.

• Web-based access, visualization and analysis tools will be developed and available for PM community use. An example is a spatio-temporal data explorer that provides interactive and dynamic access and browsing capabilities to distributed data sets.

SeaWiFS Reflectance, PM2.5 in Idaho (Aug 2000)

Derived Aerosol Optical Depth, Fire Locations in Idaho (Aug 2000)

Right. SeaWiFS satellite and METAR surface haze shown near-real time in the Voyager distributed data browser

Below. SeaWiFS, METAR and TOMS Absorbing Aerosol Index superimposed

Satellite data are fetched from NASA GSFC; surface data from NWS/CAPITA servers

Task 3: Illustration of RAW for Quebec Smoke, July 6, 2002See http://capita.wustl.edu/aerosolevents

2002 Quebec Smoke over the

Northeast

Smoke (Organics) and Sulfate concentration data from VIEWS integrated database

DVoy overlay of sulfate and organics during the passage of the smoke plume

Task 5: Real-time aerosol event tracking demonstration

• Acquisition of multiple haze-relevant information sources

• Processing and integration of multi-sensory data

• Demonstrate a real-time data distribution through open web interface

• Analyze the natural aerosol event real time – Establish the origins of the aerosol emission

– Spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol concentrations

– Estimate visibility impairment during the event

– Estimate the contribution of the natural source.

FASTNET: The Web systemData integration, delivery and decision support

Analysts Dashboards (a la Westphal website, CAPITA, DVoy)

An array of web-pages for one-stop access to current PM monitoring data including surface PM monitoring, satellite monitoring, weather and forecast models etc.

Taps into the on-line data services of EPA and RPOs, NASA, and NOAA and provides the most comprehensive picture available of the current and recent multidimensional aerosol pattern.

The emphasis is on timeliness and inclusiveness. The degree of integration for some data may be limited.

Interactive Virtual Workgroup Website (a la CAPITA interactive event sites)

This is an open facility to allow active participation of a diverse virtual community in the acquisition, interpretation and discussion of the on-line PM monitoring data.

Participants can contribute information sources relevant to the current events (e.g. special data, web cam images, news reports), insights on data quality and interpretation and collectively prepare summaries.

It is the ‘organizational memory’ of the community through via links to other analyses, external resources, etc

Air Quality Managers Console (a la AirNOW but for manager types)

The console helps PM managers make decisions during major aerosol events.

Delivers a subset of the PM data relevant to the AQ managers, which includes the event summary reports prepared by the Virtual workgroups.

The console manages the ‘watch’ assignments of human observers at the Analysts Dashboard and issues alerts to AQ managers and other interested parties.

Task 3. Real-Time Estimation of Natural Aerosols and Visibility

Real-time Aerosol Watch System (RAW)

Real-Time Analysts Console. A web-page for one-stop access to views of current PM/Visibility monitoring data (aerosol, weather) and model output for nowcasting and forecasting.

Virtual Workgroup Website. An interactive website which facilitates the active participation of diverse members in the interpretation, discussion, summary and assessment of the aerosol events.

Air Quality Managers Console. Delivers a packaged PM data and summary reports prepared by the Virtual

workgroups. Helps PM managers make decisions during major aerosol events.

Rationale

• The dominant natural aerosol sources are from windblown dust and biomass smoke.

• Both are ‘episodic’, i.e. short-term extreme concentrations that require AQ management actions.

• Dust and smoke events can be monitored real-time by numerous surface and satellite sensors.

The development and implementation of RAW is already being supported at CAPITA by grants from NSF, NOAA, EPA/EMAP, NASA(pending). Incremental funding from this project would support estimating ‘Natural PM/Visibility Contributions’ during such events.

July 2002 Quebec Smoke Interactive Virtual Workgroup Website at CAPITA