Faust & Leeper - Myth of Normal -The Bumpy Story of Inflation and Monetary Policy

8/20/2019 Faust & Leeper - Myth of Normal -The Bumpy Story of Inflation and Monetary Policy

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]NK EV]N GI LGREDA? ]NK B[EPV X]GRV GI FLIAD]FGL

DLM EGLK]DRV P GAFHV√

Ogl Idust† dlm Krfh E. Akkpkr‡

Dujust 4>, 204;

DBX]RDH]

Pgafhyedckrs drk wkaa dwdrk tndt mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs ulmkrafk tfek skrfks mdtd

tg edck fltkrprktdtfgls mfifflhuat. Mkspftk tnfs dwdrklkss, dldaytfhda dlm qudltftdtfvk egmkas dt

hkltrda bdlcs igr tnk egst pdrt rkflkht dhdmkefh rkskdrhn tndt rkmuhks eglktdry pgafhy bkndvfgr

tg d rkspglsk gi tnk pgafhy fltkrkst rdtk tg d agw-mfeklsfglda sueedry gi tnk stdtk gi tnk

khglgey”jdps fl flfldtfgl dlm gutput. Zk drjuk tndt mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs drk

ubfquftgus ikdturks gi khglgefks, kvkl murflj ‑lgreda― tfeks afck tnk mkhdmk 466;‘200;,

dlm tndt tngsk myldefhs drk egrk fepgrtdlt igr pgafhyedcflj tndl drk tnk lgreda hyhafhda

myldefhs tndt hurrkltay mgefldtk pgafhy dldaysks. Hkltrda bdlcs wguam bklkfflt irge kiigrts tg

fltkjrdtk mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs egrk iuaay fltg tnk dldaytfhs gi pgafhyedcflj.

√Prkpdrkm igr tnk Ikmkrda Rkskrvk Bdlc gi Cdlsds Hfty‖s Odhcsgl Ngak Xyepgsfue, Dujust 204;. Idust tndlcs

edly pkgpak dt tnk Ikm igr vdaudbak akssgls flhaumflj Bkl Bkrldlck, Bfaa Kljafsn, ]ngeds Adubdhn, ]rkvgr Rkkvk,

Efhnkaak Xeftn, Mdvfm Zfahgx, dlm Odlkt Vkaakl, dlm dasg tndlcs Bgb Bdrbkrd dlm Ogldtndl Zrfjnt igr uskiua hge-

eklts. Akkpkr tndlcs Ofe Ldsgl, Bruhk Prkstgl, Kaafs ]daaedl, Dlmkrs Yrkmfl, dlm ]gmm Zdackr igr nkapiua mfshus-sfgls. Zk tndlc Edjjfk Odhgbsgl igr rkskdrhn dssfstdlhk dlm tnk Bdlc igr Fltkrldtfglda Xkttakeklts igr prgvfmflj fts

kstfedtks gi rfsc prkefd.†Ognls Ngpcfls [lfvkrsfty dlm LBKR3 [email protected].‡Flmfdld [lfvkrsfty dlm LBKR3 [email protected].


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]nkrk wds d tfek, lgt tgg aglj djg, wnkl hkltrda bdlcflj wds hglsfmkrkm tg bk d rdtnkr

bgrflj dlm ulkxhftflj ghhupdtfgl. Fl tnk krd gi tnk ‑Jrkdt Egmkrdtfgl,― egstay skkl

ds tnk pkrfgm bktwkkl tnk efm-46>0s dlm tnk bkjfllflj gi tnk jagbda fflldlhfda hrfsfs,

flfldtfgl wds tdekm dlm edhrgkhglgefh vgadtfafty wds hgltdflkm. Xgek tngujnt tndt

eglktdry pgafhy hguam kiikhtfvkay bk padhkm gl dutg-pfagt. F hdl hglfflmkltay sdy tndttnfs tfek nds pdsskm.

Edrfg Mrdjnf (2048)

4 FL]RGM[H]FGL

Lgredafzdtfgl. Lg edttkr ygur vfkws dbgut wnkl, ngw, dlm dt wndt pdhk vdrfgus khglgefks wfaa

dhnfkvk eglktdry pgafhy lgredafzdtfgl, tnk fmkda gi lgredahy fs ulmklfdbay hgeigrtflj. Zftn

tnk Ikmkrda Rkskrvk lgw (mdtd mkpklmkltay) gl tnk brflc gi lgredafzdtfgl, ft skkes afck d jggm

tfek tg rkirksn gur ekegrfks gl oust wndt fs tnk lgreda fltkrpady bktwkkl flfldtfgl myldefhs dlmeglktdry pgafhy.

D ldturda stdrtflj pgflt fs tg aggc dt nfstgry”surkay lgreda fs wndt wds, wkaa, lgreda. ]nk

nfstgry gi eglktdry pgafhy rullflj tnrgujn tnk jgam stdlmdrm krd, Brkttgl Zggms, dlm tnk subsk-

quklt egrk rkhklt trfpakt gi Jrkdts”Flfldtfgl, Egmkrdtfgl dlm Rkhkssfgl”fs rfhn, vdrfkm, dlm, wk

eust dmeft, pkppkrkm wftn trdjfh kpfsgmks. Zndt mgks lgt lkhkssdrfay stdlm gut, ngwkvkr, fs dly

kxtklmkm pkrfgm glk wguam wdlt tg tdck ds lgreda.

Glk ngpkiua tnkek, tg wnfhn wk subshrfbk, fs tndt pgafhyedckrs dlm dhdmkefhs drk akdrlflj

fepgrtdlt akssgls dlm tndt khglgefks drk hgltfludaay egvflj tgwdrm d bkttkr lgreda fl eglktdry

pgafhyedcflj dlm flfldtfgl myldefhs. Rkjdrmakss gi glk‖s vfkws dbgut tnk ‑lkw lgreda― igr struh-

turda fssuks suhn ds skhuadr stdjldtfgl”edttkrs tndt eglktdry pgafhy hdllgt euhn dmmrkss”glk

wguam ngpk tndt bdsfh fssuks gi kvkrymdy eglktdry pgafhyedcflj efjnt rkturl tg sgektnflj afck

afik fl tnk mkhdmk gr sg bkigrk tnk hrfsfs.

Ds Mrdjnf lgtks fl tnk fltrgmuhtgry qugtdtfgl, tndt pkrfgm prksklts dl dttrdhtfvk pgssfbak lgreda

fl skvkrda rkspkhts. ]nk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl hglqukrkm dlm fts akssgls dmmkm tg tngsk jdrlkrkm irge tnk

jgam stdlmdrm dlm Brkttgl Zggms krds, hkltrda bdlckrs ndm by tnk kdray 4660s fltkrldafzkm d hgrk

ighus gl prfhk stdbfafty. Ditkr fepgrtdlt fllgvdtfgls fl Lkw _kdadlm fl tnk kdray 4660s, tnk flkxfbak

flfldtfgl tdrjktflj irdekwgrc kvgavkm rdpfmay dlm tnk hgrk ighus ndm bkkl fflaakm gut fltg d iuaaygpkrdtfglda shnkek igr pgafhyedcflj. D lkw hadss gi egmkas”MXJK egmkas”wds dmmkm tg tnk

suftk gi egmkas rkjuadray hglsfmkrkm by hkltrda bdlcs.4 By 200; dbgut d mkhdmk gi kxpkrfklhk

wftn tnfs shnkek ndm bkkl dssghfdtkm wftn ulprkhkmkltkm stdbfafty fl flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty.

Igr jggm rkdsgl, Cflj (2008) adbkaakm tnfs tnk LFHK mkhdmk”LFHK? lglflfldtfgldry hglsfstkltay

4Xekts dlm Zgutkrs (2008, 200:) prgbdbay edrckm tnk brkdctnrgujn gi tnksk egmkas fltg prdhtfhda pgafhy rkak-

vdlhk.

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kxpdlsfgldry. Pkrndps wk ndm akdrlkm tnk cky kakeklts gi dpprgprfdtk eglktdry pgafhy fl lgreda

tfeks, dlm pkrndps wk efjnt kxpkht tg rkturl tg suhn d pkrfgm.

]nkrk skkes tg bk lkdray ulfvkrsda djrkkeklt tndt sgek vkry fepgrtdlt akssgls ndm bkkl

akdrlkm. Igrkegst deglj tnksk fs tndt prfhk stdbfafty fs d hkltrda hgepglklt gi sgulm eglktdry

pgafhy dlm tndt systkedtfh dlm trdlspdrklt pgafhy drk tnk bkst wdy tg prgegtk daa jgdas gi pgafhy.]nksk kakeklts drk wndt Bkrldlck (2008b) mkshrfbks ds tnk cky akssgls gi tnk flfldtfgl tdrjktflj

irdekwgrc3 tnky drk lgw ulfvkrsdaay dhhkptkm dlm lg agljkr tnk sgak pgsskssfgl gi dly hdep gr

brdlm.

Zk wfaa hndaakljk skvkrda gtnkr dspkhts gi wndt wk skk ds tnk hglvkltfglda vfkw gi lgreda-

tfeks pgafhy dlm flfldtfgl myldefhs, d vfkw tndt nds strgljay flfluklhkm bgtn dhdmkefh wgrc dlm

pgafhyedcflj sflhk tnk kdray 4660s. ]nfs hglvkltfglda pkrspkhtfvk, wnfhn wk wfaa hdaa tnk lfhk

vfkw, edrrfks d pdrtfhuadr dhhgult gi lgreda busflkss hyhak myldefhs tg d lgtfgl gi dpprgprfdtk

eglktdry pgafhy. Fl tnfs vfkw, hkltrda bdlcs bkst prgegtk flfldtfgl stdbfafty by bkndvflj fl d

sfepak dlm systkedtfh edllkr, rkspglmflj edflay tg tnk stdtks gi flfldtfgl dlm djjrkjdtk rkda

dhtfvfty. Pgafhy bkndvfgr fs rgujnay mkshrfbkm by sgek typk gi ]dyagr ruak. Xg aglj ds hkltrda bdlc

bkndvfgr fs sfepak dlm prkmfhtdbak, lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs prgmuhk flfldtfgl tndt sngws egmkst

dlm trdlsftgry fluhtudtfgls drgulm fts tdrjkt vdauk dlm rkda dhtfvfty wngsk fluhtudtfgls drk afckwfsk

egmkst. Ds wk‖aa kxpadfl egrk iuaay bkagw, tnfs lfhk vfkw hdl dhhgeegmdtk d brgdm rdljk gi

edhrg egmkas dlm pkrspkhtfvks”lkw Ckylksfdls, gam Ckylksfdls, eglktdrfsts3 tngsk wng bkafkvk

tnkrk drk ikw pgafhy-kxpagftdbak trdmkgiis, dlm tngsk wng bkafkvk fl quftk dhtfvk pgafhy.

]nkrk fs dl datkrldtfvk vfkw gi tnk wgram, wnfhn edy sndrk euhn wftn tnk lfhk vfkw, but mfiikrs

fl glk edogr rkspkht. Djjrkjdtk flfldtfgl dlm rkda-sfmk myldefhs rkflkht mfspdrdtk dlm pkrsfstkltegvkeklts fl eyrfdm vdrfdbaks, dlm tnk pgafhy fepafhdtfgls gi tnksk egvkeklts drk lgt wkaa hdp-

turkm by twg (gr d vkry sedaa luebkr gi) hglvkltfglda sueedry stdtfstfhs igr nkdmaflk djjrkjdtks

suhn ds flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty. Zk adbka tnfs prgbakedtfh vdrfdtfgl fl edhrg vdrfdbaks mfspdrdtk

hgligulmflj myldefhs (MHM), wnkrk hgligulmflj rkikrs tg hgepafhdtflj dly hglvkltfglda fltkr-

prktdtfgl gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs dlm tnk dssksseklt gi dpprgprfdtk eglktdry pgafhy.

Zndt vdrfdbaks mfspady mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs7 Prgmuhtfvfty dlm gutput jrgwtn gi

bgtn ldtfgls dlm khglgefh skhtgrs fluhtudtk pkrsfstkltay rkadtfvk tg glk dlgtnkr3 hagskay rkadtkm,

tnk flfldtfgl rdtks gi ngusflj, jggms, skrvfhks, klkrjy, iggm, dlm, ekmfhda hdrk mfiikr wfmkay dlm

pkrsfstkltay tnrgujn tfek. Mkbt gi vdrfgus skhtgrs jrgws pkrsfstkltay dlm stghndstfhdaay dt rdtks tndt

mfiikr irge tndt gi flhgek. ]kre dlm rfsc prkefd fl fflldlhfda edrckts sngw adrjk dlm pkrsfstklt

vdrfdtfgl. Dlm sg igrtn.

Mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs drk baflmfljay dppdrklt fl tnk mdtd3 fi ygu aggc dt rdw mdtd,

tnky drk edflay wndt ygu skk. Dlm lglk gi tnfs fs lkws tg pgafhyedckrs gr hkltrda bdlc stdiikrs3

wk mg lgt prktklm tg nkrdam tnk mfshgvkry gi lkw gbokhts fl tnk pgafhyedcflj fflredeklt.

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Zk wfaa, ngwkvkr, drjuk tndt d hglvkltfglda vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs tgg strgljay hga-

grs euhn pgafhy dldaysfs dlm tndt kakeklts sngwflj MHM drk lgt fltkjrdtkm suifflhfkltay wkaa fltg

tnk dldaysfs. Egst dhdmkefh wgrc gl eglktdry pgafhy fl dly hglvkltfglda pkrspkhtfvk dbstrdhts

kltfrkay irge hgligulmflj kakeklts afck tngsk oust afstkm. Dhdmkefhs deglj us clgw tnk prgpkr

mkiklsk? egmkas eust bk fmkdafzdtfgls3 tnk drt fs tg strfp dwdy supkrflugus mktdfas tg ighus gl tnkkssklhk. Lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, fl tnfs vfkw, drk tnk nkdrt gi tnk edttkr.

]nfs pdpkr fs dl flvftdtfgl tg rkhglsfmkr oust wnfhn pdrts gi edhrg myldefhs drk”dlm nfstgr-

fhdaay ndvk bkkl”dt tnk nkdrt gi jggm dlm/gr bdm pgafhyedcflj. ]g put ft prgvghdtfvkay, wk‖aa

drjuk tndt fi wk eust dhhkpt tnk hglvkltfglda pdrtftfglflj gi edhrg myldefhs fltg bfls adbkaakm

edfl ighus dlm gtnkr , wk snguam prgbdbay rkvkrsk tnk adbkas rkadtfvk tg ngw tnk hglvkltfglda vfkw

wguam hdtkjgrfzk tnfljs. But dl dpprgdhn tndt iuaay fltkjrdtks tnk bfls wguam bk kvkl bkttkr.

Ditkr irdeflj tnk fssuks egrk hglhrktkay, wk stdrt wftn sgek sueedry (lglstruhturda) kvf-

mklhk sujjkstflj tndt tnk hglvkltfglda vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs nds nfstgrfhdaay bkkl gi

ksskltfdaay lg vdauk fl prkmfhtflj flfldtfgl myldefhs. ]nksk rksuats bufam gl tnk wgrc gi Idust dlm

Zrfjnt (2048). ]nk pdpkr tnkl survkys tnk nfstgry gi pgafhyedcflj dlm flfldtfgl myldefhs fl dl

dttkept tg ulmkrstdlm tnfs rksuat. ]nfs nfstgry pgflts us tgwdrm twg idefafks gi fssuks.

Ifrst hgek rkda-tfek ekdsurkeklt prgbakes. Dppayflj tnk lfhk vfkw tg pgafhy dlm lgreda

hyhafhda myldefhs rkqufrks fflrst fflatkrflj gut tnk pdrt gi dly ekdsurkm mdtd skrfks tndt fs lgt tnk

lgreda busflkss hyhak. Igr kxdepak, glk dttkepts tg aggc tnrgujn iggm dlm klkrjy prfhk snghcs

dlm eust skpdrdtk trklm irge hyhak fl rkda dhtfvfty. Dly wfsmge hdpturkm by tnk lfhk vfkw edy bk

gi afeftkm vdauk fi tnk kxtrdlkgus bfts hdllgt bk ekdsurkm wkaa fl rkda tfek.

Xkhglm hgeks d skt gi fssuks tndt drfsk fi busflkss hyhak dlm gtnkr myldefhs fltkrdht fl d wdytndt hdllgt bk mfskltdljakm, kftnkr fl prflhfpak gr fl rkda tfek. Igr kxdepak, tnk rdtfg gi nguskngam

mkbt tg flhgek fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks rgsk idfray stkdmfay irge 46;0 tnrgujn 200: Sffljurk 4U. ]nfs

trklm wds dbsklt fl hglvkltfglda busflkss hyhak egmkas. Zk clgw gi lg tnkgrfks tndt tkaa us wnfhn

pdrts gi tnfs trklmflj vdrfdbak pgafhy snguam fjlgrk dlm wnfhn pdrts edy diikht hyhafhda myldefhs.

Zk drjuk tndt fl tnk typfhda nfstgrfhda hdsk”pkrndps egst kspkhfdaay murflj tnk LFHK mkhdmk”

ulmkrstdlmflj MHM fs tnk cky tg ulmkrstdlmflj flfldtfgl myldefhs dlm tndt tnk vdrfdtfgl hdpturkm

fl tnk lfhk vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs padys d mkhfmkmay skhglmdry rgak.

Ikw gi tnk fmkds fl tnfs pdpkr drk lkw”egst ndvk bkkl drtfhuadtkm dt tnfs syepgsfue fl tnk

pdst. But wk hdek tg tnke wnfak pdrtfhfpdtflj fl hkltrda bdlc pgafhyedcflj dlm dldayzflj hge-

eulfhdtfgl murflj tnk hurrklt rkhgvkry. Zk skk d sfjlffflhdlt snfit, wftn hkltrda bdlcs ighussflj gl

dlm hgeeulfhdtflj dbgut tnk mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs”pkrsfstklt hndljks fl tkre prk-

efd fl fflldlhfda edrckts, puzzaks gvkr trklm vkrsus hyhak hgepglklts fl adbgr igrhk pdrtfhfpdtfgl,

trklms fl mkegjrdpnfhs dlm jagbdafzdtfgl, dlm tnk afck.

Zk strgljay suppgrt wndt wk skk ds d prglgulhkm snfit fl kepndsfs gi dppafkm pgafhy dldaysfs

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. =

. 9

. >

4

4 . 2

4 . =

r d t f g

46;0 4690 46:0 46>0 4660 2000 2040

mdtk

Ifjurk 4? Rdtfg gi hrkmft edrckt mkbt gi nguskngams dlm lglprgfflts tg pkrsglda mfspgsdbak flhgek.

Xgurhk? Ikmkrda Rkskrvk vfd IRKM, dutngrs‖ hdahuadtfgls.

dt edogr hkltrda bdlcs. Irge tnk stdlmpgflt gi pgafhy dldaysfs, rkurlflj tg wndt skrvkm ds lgreda

fl tnk LFHK mkhdmk wguam bk d sktbdhc. D lkw dlm bkttkr lgreda fl eglktdry pgafhy dldaysfs dt

hkltrda bdlcs fs darkdmy skttaflj fl. Zk wfaa giikr sgek sujjkstfgls dbgut ngw bkst tg hdpftdafzk gl

tnk prgjrkss darkdmy gbtdflkm.

2 ]NK L FH K Y FKZ DLM L GREDA H VHAFHDA MVLDEFHX

]nk lfhk vfkw brfljs d pkrspkhtfvk gl lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs tgjktnkr wftn fepafhdtfgls igr

ngw eglktdry pgafhy hdl bkst hgltrfbutk tg afeftflj tnk hgsts gi tngsk myldefhs. ]nk cky fs tnk

stdlhk gl khglgefh myldefhs3 pgafhy rksuats igaagw idfray mfrkhtay. Hkltrda tg lgreda hyhafhda

myldefhs fs tndt djjrkjdtk flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty tklm tgwdrm rkjuadr fluhtudtfgls drgulm sgek

lgreda vdauks”igr flfldtfgl ft fs tnk hkltrda bdlc‖s tdrjkt3 igr rkda vdrfdbaks ft fs sgek lgtfgl gi

iuaa gr edxfeue sustdfldbak rksgurhk utfafzdtfgl, jgvkrlkm, sdy, by tnk jrgwtn fl pgtkltfda gutput.

Rkhgjlfzflj tndt myldefhs dlm pgafhy hdllgt bk skpdrdtkm, d egrk hgepaktk stdtkeklt fs tndt tnk

myldefhs oust mkshrfbkm ngam ulmkr d wfmk rdljk gi sklsfbak pgafhy bkndvfgr. ]nk jgda gi pgafhy

fs tg pfhc irge deglj sklsfbak pgafhy gptfgls tnk glk tndt bkst afefts tnk hgsts gi tnk hyhafhda

fluhtudtfgls.

]nk prfedry aflc bktwkkl flfldtfgl dlm dhtfvfty, fl tnfs vfkw, ruls irge sadhc fl djjrkjdtk

rksgurhk utfafzdtfgl tg flfldtfgl. ]nfs aflc fs tdckl tg bk prkmfhtdbak dlm kxpagftdbak by pgafhy. Znkl

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mkedlm fs nfjnkr rkadtfvk tg prgmuhtfvk hdpdhfty, sadhc fs agwkr dlm flfldtfgl tklms tg egvk up

rkadtfvk tg tnk tdrjkt. Znkl, sdy, tkhnlfhda fllgvdtfgl rdfsks hdpdhfty rkadtfvk tg mkedlm, sadhc rfsks

dlm flfldtfgl idaas rkadtfvk tg tnk tdrjkt. ]nfs bkndvfgr edy bk igrwdrm aggcflj, sg tndt kxpkhtkm

sadhc diikhts flfldtfgl tgmdy.

Eglktdry pgafhy fl tnk lfhk vfkw hdl bkst hgltrfbutk tg khglgefh wkaidrk, fflrst, by lgt dmmfljulhkrtdflty tg tnk khglgey. Pgafhy snguam bk systkedtfh dlm trdlspdrklt dlm ndvk d prkmfhtdbak

rkadtfgl tg ulmkrayflj hglmftfgls. Ds lgtkm fl tnk fltrgmuhtfgl, klsnrflflj tnfs prflhfpak daglj wftn

prfhk stdbfafty dt tnk nkdrt gi jggm pgafhy nds bkkl glk gi tnk ndaaedrcs gi truk prgjrkss.

Ngw bkst hdl tnk hkltrda bdlc dvgfm flokhtflj jrdtuftgus lgfsk wnfak ft dttkepts tg afeft tnk

ndreiua kiikhts gi hyhaks7 ]nk ngay jrdfa gi eglktdry khglgefhs nds bkkl tg ffllm d sfepak rkhfpk.

Irfkmedl (4690) drjukm tndt sgektnflj afck d hglstdlt eglktdry jrgwtn ruak efjnt bk tnk bkst

tndt pgafhy hdl mg. Egrk rkhkltay, tnk ighus nds turlkm tg tnk prfhk flstkdm gi tnk qudltfty gi afqufm

dsskts, dlm rkskdrhnkrs ndvk mfshgvkrkm tndt fl egmkas gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, sfepak fltkrkst

rdtk ruaks mkafvkr jggm edhrgkhglgefh pkrigredlhk.

]dyagr (4668) idegusay lgtkm tndt d sfepak ruak tndt rkspglms tg flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty

efefhckm tnk bkndvfgr gi tnk Ikmkrda Rkskrvk murflj d pkrfgm jklkrdaay rkhgjlfzkm ds suhhkssiua

igr pgafhy. D adrjk bgmy gi rkskdrhn jrkw up mghuekltflj tndt dhrgss d wfmk rdljk gi egmkas gi

lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, d rkdhtfgl iulhtfgl fl wnfhn tnk hkltrda bdlc dmousts tnk pgafhy fltkrkst

rdtk fl d sfepak (aflkdr) wdy tg sgek flmfhdtgr gi djjrkjdtk flfldtfgl dlm djjrkjdtk sadhc pkrigres

wkaa. Xuhn ruaks hdl kvkl prgvfmk guthgeks tndt drk kxtrkekay hagsk tg tnk gptfeue tndt hguam bk

dhnfkvkm fl tnksk egmkas. ]ndt fs, pgafhy mkafvkrs dl flfldtfgl rdtk tndt fluhtudtks bklfjlay drgulm

fts tdrjkt dlm eflfefzks flkifflhfklt busflkss hyhak vdrfdtfgl tg tnk kxtklt pgssfbak wftn tnk baulttggas gi eglktdry pgafhy.

]dyagr dlm Zfaafdes‖ (2040) kxhkaaklt rkvfkw mghueklts tndt tnk lkdr gptfedafty gi sfepak

]dyagr-typk ruaks ngams lgt glay fl sedaa dbstrdht egmkas tndt drk tnk jrfst igr euhn flsfjnt fl bdsfh

rkskdrhn, but dasg fl adrjkr gam- dlm lkw-idsnfglkm egmkas gi tnk busflkss hyhak, flhaumflj egmkas

tndt hkltrda bdlcs usk fl tnk pgafhy prghkss.

Glk rkedrcdbak dspkht gi tnk lfhk vfkw fs tndt ft edy bk pdadtdbak tg d wfmk rdljk gi dumfklhks?

Ckylksfdls”lkw dlm gam”eglktdrfsts”egmkrl dlm trdmftfglda”rkda busflkss hyhak dmvghdtks,

kvkl flfldtfgl luttkrs. Hglvkrjklhk gi vfkws drfsks sg aglj ds glk mgks lgt mfj tgg mkkpay fltg oust

wndt wk ekdl by afeftflj tnk hgsts gi flkifflhfklt busflkss hyhak vdrfdtfgl. ]nk pgafhy prkshrfptfgls

gi gam Ckylksfdls dlm lkw Ckylksfdls drk sfefadr, kvkl tngujn ulkepagyeklt fs d ighda hglhkrl

gi gam Ckylksfdls, wnfak lkw Ckylksfdls gitkl usk egmkas tndt ndvk lgtnflj tnk gam Ckylksfdls

wguam rkhgjlfzk ds ulkepagyeklt. Xfefadray, sg aglj ds ft fs dl kepfrfhda rkjuadrfty tndt sadhc

prkmfhts flfldtfgl, tnk sfepak pgafhy ruak edy bk pdadtdbak tg eglktdrfsts dlm flfldtfgl luttkrs dafck.

Rkda busflkss hyhak igacs edy bkafkvk tndt efsjufmkm hkltrda bdlc pgafhy fs ftskai tnk prfedry

;


7/61

sgurhk gi flkifflhfklt busflkss hyhak vdrfdtfgl, dlm tnky tgg hdl jg daglj”dt akdst tnk bkndvfgr fs

sfepak dlm systkedtfh. ]nfs nkaps us ulmkrstdlm Akvfl dlm Zfaafdes‖ (2008) stullflj hglhausfgl?

]nk edfl ffllmflj irge gur egmka-bdskm dldaysfs fs pgsftfvk? ft fs pgssfbak tg ffllm

pgafhy ruaks tndt pkrigre vkry wkaa fl d wfmk rdljk gi edhrg egmkas ds aglj ds tnkpgafhyedckr hdrks dbgut bgtn flfldtfgl dlm gutput vdrfdbfafty. Gr, put mfiikrkltay, tnk

ekebkrs gi d pgafhyedcflj hgeefttkk tndt sndrk sfefadr prkikrklhks igr stdbfafzflj

fluhtudtfgls fl flfldtfgl, gutput, dlm fltkrkst rdtks, but wng ndvk quftk mfiikrklt vfkws

gi tnk myldefhs bkndvfgr gi tnk khglgey, hdl rkadtfvkay kdsy SsfhU hgek tg d eutu-

daay dhhkptdbak hgeprgefsk gvkr tnk mksfjl gi eglktdry pgafhy. SAkvfl dlm Zfaafdes

(2008, p. 696)U

]nk pgafhyedcflj wgram fl tnk lfhk vfkw fs vkry lfhk flmkkm.

Lgtfhk ngw ldrrgway tnk lfhk vfkw hfrhueshrfbks tnk pgafhy prgbake? eflfefzk fluhtudtfgls gi flfldtfgl dlm gutput dbgut tnkfr lgreda vdauks, dpprgprfdtkay mkffllkm. ]nk prgbake fs kakjdlt fl fts

sfepafhfty. Fl prdhtfhk, tnk sfepafhfty kekrjks glay ditkr mktkreflflj lgreda vdauks igr flfldtfgl

dlm sgektnflj afck pgtkltfda gutput, but tndt fs stfaa d agw-mfeklsfglda prgbake. 2

Xgekngw tnk edly vdrfdbaks tndt jrgw pkrsfstkltay dt mfspdrdtk rdtks mg lgt edttkr, kxhkpt

flsgidr ds tnky diikht glk‖s dssksseklt gi flfldtfgl gr sadhc. Idhtgrs bknflm mfspdrdtk skhuadr ups

dlm mgwls edy dvkrdjk gut”eglktdry pgafhy fs d bault tgga ighusskm gl djjrkjdtks. Gr tnky

hndljk tgg sagway tg bk fepgrtdlt igr eglktdry pgafhy. Pgafhy, ditkr daa, nds fts edfl kiikhts glk

tg twg ykdrs fl tnk iuturk. Gr tnk gtnkr myldefh idhtgrs drk sgekngw sdikay vfkwkm ds skpdrdbak

irge tnk lgreda myldefhs tndt drk tnk subokht gi pgafhy.

2.4 ]NK L FH K YFKZ DLM R KD A-ZGRAM PGAFHVEDCFLJ Dmvghdtks gi tnk lfhk vfkw ds rkp-

rkskltkm fl dhdmkefh rkskdrhn, gi hgursk, iuaay rkdafzk tndt tngsk egmkas geft euhn tndt edy bk

fepgrtdlt. ]dyagr kepndsfzkm tndt tnk pgafhy prkshrfptfgls gi pgafhy ruaks snguam lgt bk tdckl aftkr-

daay, but uskm ds jufmks.8 Xvklssgl (2008) igreuadtkm d igrkhdst-bdskm dpprgdhn tg fepakekltflj

pgafhy fl tnk lfhk vfkw tndt prgvfmks d ldturda wdy tg igam gtnkrwfsk flhglvklfklt dspkhts gi rk-

dafty fltg tnk mfshussfgl. ]nksk gtnkr idhtgrs drk flhgrpgrdtkm flsgidr ds tnky diikht tnk igrkhdsts

gi flfldtfgl gr djjrkjdtk dhtfvfty. Bkrldlck (200=) dlm Vkaakl (2008) kxprksskm d prkikrklhk igr d

nybrfm igrkhdst-bdskm dpprgdhn fligrekm by ]dyagr-typk ruaks.

Dl fepgrtdlt prdhtfhda qukstfgl fs ngw adrjk dlm irkquklt tnk mkvfdtfgls wguam bk (fl lgreda

2Fl MXJK egmkas tnfs wguam usudaay bk fltkrprktkm ds tnk akvka tndt wguam gbtdfl dbsklt stfhcy prfhk dlm wdjk

mfstgrtfgls.8Igr kxdepak, ]dyagr (4668) pgflts tg nfstgrfhda flstdlhks wnkl tnk Ikm hglshfgusay mkvfdtkm irge tnk sfepak ruak

tg rkdht tg fligredtfgl hgltdflkm fl gfa prfhks gr bglm-edrckt mkvkagpeklts.

9


8/61

tfeks). Akvfl dlm ]dyagr (2040) skke tg fepay tndt mkvfdtfgls wguam bk rdrk.= Egrk jklkrdaay,

dhdmkefh wgrc gl egmkas gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, hkltrda bdlc dldaysks, dlm dhtuda pgafhy

irdekwgrcs sujjkst tndt ighussflj ldrrgway gl stdbfafzflj flfldtfgl (gr pkrndps kvkl bkttkr, tnk

prfhk akvka) hdpturks tnk kssklhk gi jggm pgafhy. Zggmigrm (200=) edcks d tngrgujn tnkgry-bdskm

hdsk igr tnfs vfkw. Ds igr rkda-wgram pgafhy irdekwgrcs, tnk hakdrkst hdsk fs tnk Bdlc gi Kljadlm,wnkrk tnk Jgvkrlgr fs hndrjkm wftn wrftflj d akttkr gi kxpadldtfgl tg tnk Hndlhkaagr gi tnk Kxhnk-

qukr wnklkvkr flfldtfgl egvks egrk tndl glk pkrhkltdjk pgflt dwdy irge tnk tdrjkt. Prksueflj

tndt tnk Kxhnkqukr wds lgt sfepay aggcflj igr d qudrtkray pkl pda, tnfs hglmftfgl wds surkay tngujnt

tg bk dl kxhkptfgl wdrrdltflj spkhfda dttkltfgl. ]nk Xwkmfsn Rfcsbdlc dlm Bdlc gi Kljadlm ndvk

dt tfeks bgtn sueedrfzkm tnfs agjfh fl tnk ruak gi tnueb tndt flfldtfgl snguam usudaay bk kxpkhtkm

tg rkturl tg tdrjkt wftnfl twg ykdrs.;

Fl sngrt, tnk lfhk vfkw skkes tg flvgavk d strglj prksueptfgl tndt hkltrda bdlcs hdl dlm snguam

dssfmugusay ighus gl sfepak, systkedtfh bkndvfgr tndt stdbfafzks flfldtfgl.

2.2 XFLHK ]NK HRFXFX, FXL‖] ]NF X YFK Z MKD M7 ]nk hrfsfs sngwkm kepndtfhdaay tndt adrjk

snghcs hdl mrfvk us dwdy irge mksfrkm vdauks igr quftk d aglj tfek. Ft dasg kxpgskm afeftdtfgls fl

tnk egmkas tndt suppgrt tnk lfhk vfkw. Fl tnk kvkr-hgltkltfgus wgram gi dhdmkefh edhrgkhglgefhs,

sgek ndvk bkkl kdjkr tg prghadfe tnk mkdtn gi edly gi tnk egmkas, fl pdrtfhuadr lkw Ckylksfdl

MXJK egmkas, rkikrrkm tg fl tnk prkvfgus skhtfgl.

Xdrjklt (2040) jfvks tnk rfjnt rkspglsk gl bkndai gi MXJK egmkas?

]nk hrftfhfse gi rkda busflkss hyhak egmkas dlm tnkfr hagsk hgusfls, tnk sg-hdaakm Lkw

Ckylksfdl egmkas, fs efsmfrkhtkm dlm rkflkhts d efsulmkrstdlmflj gi tnk purpgsk igr

wnfhn tngsk egmkas wkrk mkvfskm. ]nksk egmkas wkrk mksfjlkm tg mkshrfbk djjrkjdtk

khglgefh fluhtudtfgls murflj lgreda tfeks wnkl edrckts hdl brflj bgrrgwkrs dlm

aklmkrs tgjktnkr fl grmkray wdys, lgt murflj fflldlhfda hrfsks dlm edrckt brkdcmgwls.

Igr kxdepak, egmkas deklmkm tg mkda wftn (wndt wk ngpk drk) glhk-d-hkltury kvklts efjnt

wkaa ndvk lgreda-tfeks myldefhs sfefadr tg tngsk fl kxfstflj egmkas.9 Egrk fepgrtdltay, Xdrjklt

jfvks d padusfbak rkdsgl tg mkiklm d lgreda-tfeks pkrspkhtfvk. D hrfsfs mgks lgt lkhkssdrfay rkiutk

tnk vdauk gi tngsk igulmdtfgls fl lgreda tfeks.

=Igr kxdepak (p. 88), ‑Gl ghhdsfgl, gi hgursk, pgafhyedckrs efjnt ffllm hgepkaaflj rkdsgls tg egmfiy, dmoust, gr

mkpdrt irge tnk prkshrfptfgls gi dly sfepak ruak. . . .―;Znfak rkhgjlfzflj tndt ngw aglj flfldtfgl tdcks tg rkturl tg tdrjkt fs stdtk-mkpklmklt, tnk Rfcsbdlc‖s mkshrfptfgl

gi tnk prflhfpaks gi eglktdry pgafhy stdtks, ‑]nk Rfcsbdlc‖s debftfgl nds jklkrdaay bkkl tg dmoust tnk rkpg rdtk dlm

tnk rkpg rdtk pdtn sg tndt flfldtfgl fs kxpkhtkm tg bk idfray hagsk tg tnk tdrjkt fl twg ykdrs‖ tfek― S Xvkrfjks Rfcsbdlc

(2040)U.9Mka Lkjrg kt da. (204;) fs glk kxdepak gi suhn wgrc.

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9/61

Zk tnflc tndt tnk cky kakeklts fl gur hndrdhtkrfzdtfgl gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs edy ndvk

survfvkm adrjkay fltdht. ]nk hgrk gi tnfs hndrdhtkrfzdtfgl fs tndt fl lgreda tfeks, pgafhy-rkakvdlt

busflkss hyhak vdrfdtfgl fs wkaa hdpturkm fl sueedry ekdsurks (pkrndps igrkhdsts) gi tnk stdtk gi

flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty rkadtfvk tg pgtkltfda.

8 LGREDA HVHAFHDA YDRFD]FGL D LM MFXPDRD]K HGLIG[LMFLJ MVLDEFHX

FL R KDAF]V

]nk lfhk vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs hdrrfks wftn ft sgek fepafhft dssueptfgls. Ifrst, ft ds-

sueks tndt wk hdl ekdlfljiuaay skpdrdtk tnk trklm dlm hyhak hgepglklts fl rkda tfek, dlm skhglm,

tnk rkakvdlt hyhafhda hgepglklts hdl bk sueedrfzkm fl tnk stdtk gi twg vdrfdbaks”glk sueedrfz-

flj flfldtfgl dlm tnk gtnkr rkda dhtfvfty. ]gjktnkr, tnksk twg ndvk d strglj fepafhdtfgl igr tnk eyrfdm

gtnkr vdrfdbaks fl tnk khglgey tndt sngw stghndstfh trklms tndt drk lgt d sfepak iulhtfgl gi trklm

gutput dlm flfldtfgl. Xgekngw tnksk gtnkr trklmflj vdrfdbaks drk skpdrdbak irge tnk eglktdry

pgafhy prgbake dlm hdl bk mfsrkjdrmkm.

Zk drk daa idefafdr wftn tnk prdhtfhda prgbakes gi fmkltfiyflj tnk hyhafhda hgepglklt gi rkda

vdrfdbaks, kspkhfdaay fl rkda tfek.: Fl prdhtfhk, tnfs gitkl flvgavks igreflj d ekdsurk gi pgtkltfda

gutput jrgwtn gr tnk ldturda rdtk gi ulkepagyeklt. Ft fs mfifflhuat tg ekdsurk tnksk vdrfdbaks fl tnk

efmmak gi d aglj nfstgrfhda sdepak, kvkl wftn dhhkss tg nkdvfay rkvfskm mdtd dlm fligredtfgl dbgut

tnk trklm bgtn bkigrk dlm ditkr tnk pkrfgm gi fltkrkst. Fl rkda tfek, tnk mdtd igr tnk hurrklt pkrfgm

wfaa bk subokht tg rkvfsfgls dlm tnk pgafhyedckrs ndvk lg mdtd gl wnkrk tnk trklm wfaa bk fl tnk

iuturk.

8.4 RKDAF]V? D HGRL[HGPFD GI MHM Znfak rkda-tfek trklm ekdsurkeklt nds bkkl euhn

mfshusskm, tnk idht tndt tnkrk drk edly stghndstfhdaay trklmflj vdrfdbaks igaagwflj pdttkrls tndt drk

lgt wkaa sueedrfzkm by pgtkltfda gutput gr flfldtfgl fs d prgbake tndt jkts akss dttkltfgl. ]nk

mkbt-flhgek rdtfg gi nguskngams fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks, ekltfglkm fl tnk fltrgmuhtfgl, fs dl kxdepak

gi suhn d vdrfdbak Sffljurk 4U. ]nfs rdtfg rgsk dt d pkrsfstklt but vdryflj pdhk igr euhn gi tnk pkrfgm

sflhk 46;0. Znfak tnfs ikdturk padykm lg fepgrtdlt rgak fl stdlmdrm egmkas uskm tg mkeglstrdtk

tnk ekrfts gi tnk lfhk vfkw, tnkrk wds lkvkr d hakdr hdsk stdtkm igr wny tnfs wds frrkakvdlt tg

ulmkrstdlmflj busflkss hyhak myldefhs.]kre prkefd fl sgvkrkfjl mkbt edrckts drk dlgtnkr kxdepak. Znfak tnkrk fs jklkrda djrkkeklt

tndt ft fs ndrm tg ekdsurk tnksk prkefd wftn prkhfsfgl dlm tndt mfiikrklt padusfbak dpprgdhnks yfkam

sgekwndt mfiikrklt dlswkrs, tnkrk fs dasg jklkrda djrkkeklt tndt, ngwkvkr ekdsurkm, tnksk prk-

efd drk quftk vdrfdbak dt nfjn irkquklhfks, busflkss hyhak irkquklhfks, dlm agwkr irkquklhfks Sigr

kxdepak, Zrfjnt (2044)U. ]kre prkefd pdttkrls fl ffljurk 2 drk typfhda, kxnfbftflj bgtn hyhafhda

:Igr d rkhklt aggc dt ngw tnfs prgbake edlfiksts ftskai drgulm rkhkssfgls skk Edrtfl kt da. (204=).

>


10/61

-2

-4

0

4

2

8

=

4660 4662 466= 4669 466> 2000 2002 200= 2009 200> 2040 2042 204=

Ifjurk 2? ]kre prkefd gl 40-ykdr lgeflda jgvkrleklt bglm yfkams fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks (mdsnkm)

dlm Irdlhk (sgafm). Xgurhk? Ng̈rmdna dlm ]rfstdlf (204=).

vdrfdtfgl dlm d lgtdbak mgwlwdrm trklm. Zrfjnt (2044) drjuks tndt tnksk drk rgbust ikdturks dhrgss

d luebkr gi hgultrfks murflj tnfs tfek pkrfgm. Fl stdlmdrm dhhgults gi lfhk vfkw pgafhy, fltkrkst-

rdtk bdskm pgafhy gpkrdtks strfhtay by diikhtflj tnk pdtn gi kxpkhtkm iuturk sngrt-tkre fltkrkst rdtks

dlm prkefd”tnk mfiikrklhks bktwkkl agljkr-tkre rdtks dlm tnk dvkrdjk gi kxpkhtkm iuturk sngrt

rdtks”pady lg ksskltfda rgak.>

Rkadtfvk prfhks gi brgdm hdtkjgrfks gi jggms dlm skrvfhks dasg sngw stghndstfh trklms”tndt fs,

tnk hdtkjgrfks mfspady pkrsfstkltay mfiikrklt flfldtfgl rdtks. ]g faaustrdtk tnfs pgflt, wk hdl pdrtftfgl

tnk hglsueptfgl bdsckt fltg sfx brgdm hdtkjgrfks”iggm, klkrjy, ekmfhda, ngusflj, gtnkr jggms,

dlm gtnkr skrvfhks, dlm kxdeflk tnk flfldtfgl rdtks murflj tnk LFHK mkhdmk Stdbak 4U. Gvkr tnfs

pkrfgm, nkdmaflk flfldtfgl wds 4.6; pkrhklt, hagsk tg wndt fs lgw tnk Ikm‖s stdtkm gbokhtfvk.6 ]nk

dvkrdjk rdtks dhrgss tnk hdtkjgrfks vdrfkm wfmkay, spdllflj tnk rdljk irge −0.:; pkrhklt tg lkdray

: pkrhklt. ]nk iggm dlm klkrjy hdtkjgrfks drk clgwl tg ndvk flfldtfgl rdtks tndt drk nfjnay vdrfdbak

rkadtfvk tg tnk gtnkrs. Ekmfhda hdrk dlm ngusflj flfldtfgl drk dasg spkhfda fl vdrfgus rkspkhts, wftnngusflj hgst flfldtfgl mfvkrjflj dt tfeks irge jklkrda prfhk flfldtfgl dlm ekmfhda hdrk flfldtfgl

hglsfstkltay rullflj euhn nfjnkr tndl jklkrda prfhk flfldtfgl.

]nk gtnkr jggms dlm gtnkr skrvfhks hdtkjgrfks prgbdbay hgek hagskst tg edthnflj tnk sgrt gi

>Zggmigrm (2042) tngrgujnay kxpadflkm tndt tnfs wds truk fl hglvkltfglda egmkrl egmkas.6]nrgujngut tnk pdpkr, wk ndvk hgeputkm flfldtfgl ds tnk dlludafzkm hndljk fl tnk ldturda agjdrftne gi tnk ulmkr-

ayflj prfhk flmkx.

6


11/61

hdtkjgry Dvk. Efl. Edx. sndrk

daa 4.6; −0.08 =.=0 400

iggm jggms 2.42 −0.>> =.90 >

klkrjy jggms 9.60 −;:.20 :6.>0 8

ngusflj dlm utfaftfks 8.44 4.=0 :.0; 4>

ekmfhda 2.>4 0.:; =.6> 4=

gtnkr skrvfhks 2.;8 0.=: 8.6> 82

gtnkr jggms −0.:= −8.=9 0.>> 2;

]dbak 4? [.X. flfldtfgl ds ekdsurkm by tnk pkrsglda hglsueptfgl kxpklmfturks, 466;‘200;. Dv-

krdjk, eflfeue, dlm edxfeue drk daa igr dlludafzkm qudrtkray rdtks. ]nk sfx sub-hdtkjgrfks drk

lglgvkradppflj dlm kxndustfvk gi tnk tgtda. ]nk hgauel adbkaakm sndrk fs tnk dvkrdjk lgeflda

bumjkt sndrk gi kdhn hdtkjgry gvkr tnfs sdepak. Xgurhk? BKD dlm dutngrs‖ hdahuadtfgls.

ftkes klvfsfglkm fl gur stdlmdrm stgrfks gi prfhk myldefhs. But gvkr tnk LFHK mkhdmk tnk skrvfhks

pdrt ndm dl flfldtfgl rdtk gi lkdray tnrkk pkrhklt dlm tnk jggms pdrt gi lkdray eflus glk pkrhklt.

Egrkgvkr, tnk flfldtfgl rdtks gi gtnkr jggms dlm gtnkr skrvfhks sngw jrkdt vdrfdtfgl rkadtfvk tg glk

dlgtnkr dt bgtn agw dlm nfjnkr irkquklhfks Sffljurk 8U. Fl tnk hrfsfs, igr kxdepak, tnk flfldtfgl rdtk gl

gtnkr skrvfhks mrgppkm sndrpay, ds hglvkltfglda tnkgry wguam sujjkst, pkrndps sfjldaaflj d edogr

hgltrdhtfgl. Fl hgltrdst, tnk rdtk gl gtnkr jggms rgsk brfkfly dlm sndrpay. ]nk wgrc gi Jfahnrfst dlm

_dcrdośkc (204;) edy snkm afjnt gl tnfs pnklgeklgl.

Fi tnk nkdmaflk flfldtfgl rdtk idaas bkhdusk gfa bkhgeks hnkdpkr rkadtfvk tg gtnkr jggms, hgl-

vkltfglda wfsmge sdys tndt wk snguam aggc tnrgujn gfa prfhks igr tnk fepafhdtfgls igr ekdsurkmflfldtfgl. Zndt dbgut wnkl nkdmaflk flfldtfgl idaas bkhdusk tnk rkadtfvk prfhk gi gtnkr jggms idaas

rkadtfvk tnk gvkrdaa ekdsurk, ds fl tnk kdray 2000s7 Xnguam tnk hkltrda bdlc skkc tg bggst tnk flfld-

tfgl fl gtnkr hdtkjgrfks fl grmkr tg stdbfafzk tnk nkdmaflk flmkx7 ]nkrk fs lgt d hakdr dlswkr irge

tnk lfhk vfkw egmkas bkhdusk tnky geft daa gi tnfs vdrfdtfgl.

Zk ndvk prkskltkm d sdepaflj gi sgek vdrfdbaks sngwflj MHM tndt wk wfaa hdrry tnrgujn

tnk pdpkr. ]nk afst fs by lg ekdls kxndustfvk. Glk prdjedtfh mkiklsk gi akdvflj suhn myldefhs

ulkxpadflkm fl lfhk vfkw egmkas fs tndt tnk egmkas skke tg wgrc prktty wkaa wftngut tdcflj dhhgult

gi tnksk ikdturks. ]nk lkxt skhtfgls hdst sgek mgubt gl tnfs hadfe.

8.2 XGE K X[JJKX]FYK KYFMKLHK GL ]NK F EPGR]DLHK GI MHM KAKEKL]X Fl 4662 Yfh-

tgr _drlgwftz, glk gi tnk skeflda hgltrfbutgrs tg tnk fflkam gi egmkrl igrkhdst dldaysfs, tggc up

tnk tgpfh gi wny edhrg igrkhdstflj ndm suhn d pggr rkhgrm. Fl dl drtfhak kltftakm ‑Nds Edhrg-

Igrkhdstflj Idfakm7― nk dttrfbutkm tnk prgbake bdsfhdaay tg mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs?

Busflkss hyhaks drk pkrsfstklt dlm rkhurrklt, but tnky drk by lg ekdls prkmktkreflkm

40


12/61

− 2

0

2

=

p k r h k l t

4660 466; 2000 200; 2040 204;

Ifjurk 8? Dlluda flfldtfgl ds ekdsurkm by tnk pkrsglda hglsueptfgl kxpklmfturks mkfldtgrs igr

gtnkr jggms (mdsnkm) dlm gtnkr skrvfhks (sgafm), bgtn gi wnfhn flvgavk rkegvflj dly iggm, klkrjy,

ekmfhda dlm ngusflj hgepglklts. Xgurhk? Burkdu gi Khglgefh Dldaysfs, dutngrs‖ hdahuadtfgls.

gr pkrfgmfh. ]nky tklm tg bk pkrvdsfvk but diikht mfiikrklt vdrfdbaks dlm skhtgrs fl

mfiikrklt wdys. Iauhtudtfgls dlm aglj trklms fl jrgwtn dlm flfldtfgl fltkrdht wftn kdhn

gtnkr dlm ndvk stghndstfh kakeklts. ]nk khglgey fl egtfgl fs d hgepakx gi myldefh

prghkssks, subokht lgt glay tg d vdrfkty gi mfsturbdlhks but dasg tg jrdmuda dlm mfshrktk

hndljks fl struhturk, flstftutfgls dlm pgafhy rkjfeks. Lg wglmkr tnkrk drk ikw, fi dly,

hglstdlt qudltftdtfvk ruaks. . . tg nkap tnk edhrg-igrkhdstkr kiikhtfvkay dlm hglsfstkltay

gvkr egrk tndl d ikw ykdrs gr irge glk busflkss hyhak tg dlgtnkr. S_drlgwftz (4662,

p. 480)U

Bgttge aflk7 ]nkrk drk euatfpak dlm snfitflj trklm dlm hyhak hgepglklts dlm tnksk fltkrdht dlm,

ds d rksuat, dly lgreda busflkss hyhak hgepglklt edly lgt bk mgefldlt dlm systkedtfh klgujn tg

yfkam euhn prkmfhtfvk pgwkr.

8 .8 D IGRKHDX]-BDXKM DPPRGDHN ]G DXXKXXFLJ ]NK PRGEFLKLHK GI ]ZG CFLMX GI

MVLDEFHX Fl tnk hgltkxt gi flfldtfgl igrkhdst kvdaudtfgl, Idust dlm Zrfjnt (2048) prgpgsk dl

kxkrhfsk vkry euhn fl tnk spfrft gi _drlgwftz‖s vfkw. ]nky hglhkptudafzk tnk igrkhdst pdtn gi

flfldtfgl fl tkres gi d stdrtflj pgflt, dl klmflj pgflt, dlm tnk pdrtfhuadr pdtn fl bktwkkl. Flfldtfgl

dt tnk stdrtflj pgflt”sdy flfldtfgl fl tnk qudrtkr tnk igrkhdst fs edmk”fs lgt clgwl, but hdl

bk vfkwkm ds prkmktkreflkm. Fl igrkhdstflj, tnfs stdrt vdauk fs jklkrdaay hdaakm d lgwhdst . ]nk

44


13/61

klmpgflt gi tnk igrkhdst pdtn fs wnkrk flfldtfgl fs ditkr daa prkmfhtdbak hgepglklts”lgreda dlm

dblgreda myldefhs”ndvk mfkm gut. Igr d hgeefttkm flfldtfgl tdrjktkr, tnfs fs prksuedbay tnk

flfldtfgl tdrjkt. Igr gtnkrs, tnfs vdauk edy lgt bk kxpafhft.40 Dly igrkhdstdbak myldefhs drk tnkl

rkflkhtkm fl tnk pdrtfhuadr pdtn bktwkkl tnk twg klmpgflts gi tnk igrkhdst.

Bdskm gl dly rkda-tfek igrkhdst, wk hdl jkt sgek sklsk gi tnk fepgrtdlhk gi systkedtfh dlmprkmfhtdbak kakeklts by bufamflj dl datkrldtfvk bklhnedrc igrkhdst ds igaagws. Xtdrt wftn tnk lgw-

hdst irge tnk grfjflda igrkhdst dlm sgek prgxy igr tnk klmpgflt gi tndt igrkhdst .44 ]nkl sfepay

hgllkht tnk twg wftn d seggtn pdtn, hgepaktkay mfsrkjdrmflj fligredtfgl gl tnk stdtk gi tnk khgl-

gey. Fl pdrtfhuadr, Idust dlm Zrfjnt aggc dt igrkhdsts fl wnfhn :0 pkrhklt gi tnk mfstdlhk fs hagskm

kdhn pkrfgm rkjdrmakss gi tnk stdtk gi tnk khglgey.42 ]nfs bklhnedrc edcks lg dttkept dt daa tg

kxpagft systkedtfh myldefhs fl flfldtfgl3 tnk igrkhdst hgeekltdry wguam dawdys rkdm, ‑wk igrkhdst

tndt flfldtfgl wfaa rkturl seggtnay irge fts hurrklt vdauk tg fts agljkr-rul vdauk.―

]nfs datkrldtfvk igrkhdst fs mksfjlkm tg kxpagft daa tnk wfsmge gi tnk grfjflda rkjdrmflj tnk

lgwhdst (wnkrk drk wk lgw7) dlm tnk aglj rul (wnkrk drk wk uatfedtkay nkdmkm7). But ditkr tndt,

tnk igrkhdst fs kltfrkay eflmakss. Ft usks lg mdtd dt daa tg fligre tnk pdtn gi flfldtfgl gvkr tnk

ngrfzgls usudaay igrkhdst by hkltrda bdlcs.

]g edck d aglj stgry sngrt, Idust dlm Zrfjnt ffllm tndt tnk datkrldtfvk jklkrdaay pkrigres dt akdst

ds wkaa ds tnk bkst prdhtfhda datkrldtfvks. ]nfs fs gvkr vdrfgus sdepaks dlm igr vdrfgus ekdsurks

gi flfldtfgl. Ft fs lgt sfepay tndt tnky hdllgt rkokht tnk nypgtnksfs tndt tnk datkrldtfvk fs kqudaay

dhhurdtk3 tnk pgflt kstfedtk gi dhhurdhy tklms tg bk vkry hagsk tg (dlm fs gitkl d bft bkttkr tndl)

tnk bkst datkrldtfvks.48 Idust dlm Zrfjnt (2048) edck tnfs rksuat glk gi tnk hkltkrpfkhks gi tnkfr

Ndlmbggc gi Khglgefh Igrkhdstflj drtfhak gl flfldtfgl igrkhdstflj, mghuekltflj ft fl d vdrfkty gi wdys.

8.= XGE K K YFMKLHK GL IGRKHDX]X GI PGAFHV F LX]F][]FGLX ]nfs skhtfgl prksklts d sde-

paflj gi Idust-Zrfjnt-styak rksuats bdskm gl igrkhdsts irge tnrkk pgafhyedcflj flstftutfgls”tnk

40Ldsgl dlm Xeftn (204;) kxpagrk egrk hdrkiua egmkaaflj gi tnk agljkr-rul.44Prdhtfhda rkda-tfek igrkhdsts drk gitkl glay rkpgrtkm igr d sngrt ngrfzgl dlm tnk klmpgflt fs tnkrkby fepafhft, akdmflj

tg d lkkm igr d prgxy.42 Xpkhffflhdaay, tnk glk-pkrfgm dnkdm igrkhdst dt tfek t fs,

yi t+4 5 lgret + τ(lgret − lgwt) (4)

wnkrk lgw fs tnk lgwhdst dlm lgre fs hurrklt lgreda. Agljkr-ngrfzgl igrkhdsts drk jfvkl by,

yi t+n 5 lgret + τ(lgret − y

i t+n−4) (2)

]dcflj tnk hdsk gi τ 5 0.8, tnksk kqudtfgls fepay tndt :0 pkrhklt (4 − τ 5 0.:) gi dly rkedflflj jdp bktwkkl tnkvdrfdbak dlm fts lgreda vdauk fs kxpkhtkm tg mfssfpdtk kdhn pkrfgm.

48Ft fs lgt ksskltfda tg gur pgflt fl tnfs pdpkr, but tnk bkst igrkhdsts skke tg bk tnk subokhtfvk igrkhdsts gi hkltrda

bdlcs dlm prfvdtk skhtgr igrkhdsts, wftn ekhndlfhda stdtfstfhda egmkas hgeflj fl wkaa bknflm.

42


14/61

Ikm, tnk Bdlc gi Kljadlm, dlm tnk FEI. Jfvkl gur kepndsfs gl lgreda tfeks, wk ighus gl tnk

prk-hrfsfs pkrfgm.4= ]nk datkrldtfvk bklhnedrcs igaagw.

]nk Ikm‖s Jrkklbggc (]kdabggc) Igrkhdst. Ds Idust dlm Zrfjnt (2048) mfshusskm egrk iuaay,

tnk Ikm‖s Jrkklbggc igrkhdst nds bkkl wfmkay stumfkm dlm fs jklkrdaay tngujnt tg bk dt gr lkdr

tnk irgltfkr gi igrkhdst dhhurdhy. ]g hglstruht tnk datkrldtfvk bklhnedrc, Idust dlm Zrfjnt tdcktnk Ikm‖s lgwhdst. Gvkr tnk pkrfgm wk drk stumyflj, tnk Ikm ndm lg kxpafhft flfldtfgl tdrjkt. Ds d

hrumk prgxy igr tnk agljkr rul, Idust dlm Zrfjnt tdck tnk igrkhdst gi dvkrdjk flfldtfgl ;‘40 ykdrs

fl tnk iuturk, wnfhn fs pubafsnkm twfhk d ykdr by Bauk Hnfp khglgefh flmfhdtgrs. ]nk pdtn bktwkkl

tnksk klmpgflts fs ds mkshrfbkm dbgvk. Idust dlm Zrfjnt igulm tndt gvkr vdrfgus sdepak pkrfgms

dlm ngrfzgls, tnk rggt ekdl squdrk prkmfhtfgl krrgr (REXPK) gi tnfs typk gi igrkhdst fs vkry hagsk

tg tndt gi tnk Jrkklbggc igrkhdst.4;

]nk Bdlc gi Kljadlm‖s Eglktdry Pgafhy Hgeefttkk Igrkhdst. Xflhk 466>, tnk Bdlc gi Kljadlm

nds pubafsnkm d qudrtkray igrkhdst fl fts flfldtfgl rkpgrt bdskm gl d edrckt pdtn igr fltkrkst rdtks.

Gur datkrldtfvk bklhnedrc usks tnk EPH lgwhdst dlm tnk Bdlc gi Kljadlm‖s flfldtfgl tdrjkt igr

tnk agljkr-rul.49

]nk FEI‖s ZKG Igrkhdst. Kdhn sprflj dlm idaa tnk FEI pubafsnks tnk Zgram Khglgefh Gut-

aggc, wnfhn flhaumks d igrkhdst igr ekebkr ldtfgls. Fl d rkvfkw gi tnk ZKG, Idust (2048) kxde-

flks tnk igaagwflj Idust dlm Zrfjnt-styak bklhnedrc. ]dck tnk FEI lgwhdst. Igr tnk agljkr-rul

vdauk, igaagw tnk dpprgdhn uskm igr tnk Jrkklbggc dldaysfs by usflj tnk 9‘40 ykdr dnkdm igrkhdst

pubafsnkm by Hglsklsus Igrkhdsts. Gi hgursk, tnk ldturk gi tnfs bklhnedrc edcks afttak sklsk

igr ldtfgls fl tnk efmst gi skhuadr mfsflfldtfgl,4: sg Idust skakhts d subskt gi tnk edthnkm ZKG-

Hglsklsus Igrkhdst sdepak tndt ndm rkadtfvkay stdbak flfldtfgl. Igr tnk wgrc rkpgrtkm nkrk, tnfsakdvks d jrgup gi 20 ldtfglda khglgefks.

]nk rksuats igr tnk Jrkklbggc dlm EPH igrkhdsts dppkdr fl tdbak 2. ]nk Jrkklbggc dlm EPH

igrkhdsts gvkr tnk sdepak fl tnk LFHK mkhdmk fflt Idust dlm Zrfjnt‖s pdttkrl. ]nk dhhurdhy gi tnk

datkrldtfvk fs sgekwndt bkttkr fl twg hdsks dlm vkry safjntay wgrsk fl glk gtnkr. ]nk datkrldtfvk

igrkhdst fs dasg hglsfmkrdbay akss vdrfdbak tndl tnk grfjflda? tnk datkrldtfvk igrkhdst tklms tg ndvk d

stdlmdrm mkvfdtfgl tndt fs drgulm 90 pkrhklt gi tnk grfjflda. ]g put ft fl sfepak tkres, tnk grfjflda

igrkhdst sngws kxtrd wfjjaks rkadtfvk tg tnk datkrldtfvk, but tnksk wfjjaks mg lgt skke tg nkap

igrkhdst dhhurdhy.

4=Edly igrkhdstflj rksuats drk euhn mfiikrklt igr tnk pkrfgm gi tnk hrfsfs, dlm fl pdrtfhuadr, wk wguam lgt kxpkht gur

dssueptfgl tndt flfldtfgl wfaa rkturl seggtnay tg fts lgreda vdauk tg bk dpprgprfdtk drgulm tnk tfek gi d hrfsfs.4;Igr HPF flfldtfgl, tnk REXPK gi tnk datkrldtfvk fs jklkrdaay sedaakr3 igr tnk JMP mkfldtgr, Jrkklbggc‖s REXPK

fs gitkl d bft agwkr.49]nk prkikrrkm flfldtfgl flmkx dlm tdrjkt hndljkm fl gur sdepak pkrfgm. ]nk wgrc rkpgrtkm nkrk sfepay edcks tnk

swfthn fl tnk fflrst qudrtkr gi 2008.4:Bkhdusk fl 9‘40 ykdrs wk kxpkht tg bk fl d vkry mfiikrklt padhk irge wnkrk wk drk tgmdy.

48


15/61

REXPK Rka.

Igrkhdst Xdepak Grfj. Dat. XM #

JB, HPF 466;‘200; 4.40 0.>; 0.=; >8

JB, JMP Mki. 466;‘200; 0.:> 0.:6 0.92 >8EPH 466>‘200; 0.90 0.;9 0.;: 82

]dbak 2? D hgepdrfsgl gi flfldtfgl igrkhdsts gi pgafhy flstftutfgls vkrsus dl bklhnedrc datkrldtfvk

mkshrfbkm fl tnk tkxt. Fl daa hdsks, flfldtfgl fs d =-qudrtkr agj hndljk dlm tnk igrkhdst fs igr tnk =-

qudrtkrs stdrtflj glk-qudrtkr ditkr tnk pkrfgm fl wnfhn tnk igrkhdst fs edmk. JB fs Jrkklbggc, JMP

Mki. fs tnk fepafhft JMP mkfldtgr, EPH fs tnk igrkhdst gi tnk Bdlc gi Kljadlm‖s eglktdry pgafhy

hgeefttkk, REXPK fs rggt ekdl squdrkm prkmfhtfgl krrgr, Grfj. sfjlffflks tnk flstftutfgl‖s igrkhdst,

Dat. fs tnk bklhnedrc datkrldtfvk, Rka. XM fs tnk rkadtfvk stdlmdrm mkvfdtfgl gi tnk datkrldtfvk

igrkhdst rkadtfvk tg tnk grfjflda, dlm # fs tnk luebkr gi gbkrskrvdtfgls dvdfadbak fl tnk stdtkm

sdepak pkrfgm. Xgurhk? Ikmkrda Rkskrvk, Bdlc gi Kljadlm, Bauk Hnfp Khglgefh Flmfhdtgrs, dlmdutngrs‖ hdahuadtfgls.

0 4 2 8 =0

4

2

8

=

ZKG

d) REXPK gi igrkhdsts

D a t .

0 0.; 40

0.4

0.2

0.8

0.=

0.;

0.9

b) Rka. stm. mkv. gi igrkhdsts, (Dat/ZKG)

Ifjurk =? Hgepdrfsgl gi FEI ZKG igrkhdst tg bklhnedrc datkrldtfvk. Fl pdlka (d), kdhn pgflt rkp-

rksklts d hgultry fl tnk edthnkm ZKG-Hglsklsus igrkhdst mdtdbdsk. Pdlka (d) sngws tnk REXPK

gi tnk twg igrkhdsts. Pdlka (b) fs d nfstgjrde gi tnk rkadtfvk stdlmdrm mkvfdtfgl gi tnk twg igrkhdsts3

kdhn ulmkrayflj pgflt fs tnk rdtfg gi tnk stdlmdrm mkvfdtfgl gi tnk igrkhdst krrgr gi tnk datkrldtfvk

igrkhdst rkadtfvk tg tndt gi tnk ZKG. Xgurhk? tnksk mdtd dlm hgeputdtfgls drk irge Idust (2048).

4=


16/61

]nk rksuats igr tnk 20 khglgefks fl tnk ZKG sdepak drk sueedrfzkm fl ffljurk =, dlm tkaa vkry

euhn tnk sdek stgry. Daa pgflts lkdr tnk =;-mkjrkk aflk fl pdlka (d) drk hdsks wnkrk tnk datkrldtfvk

dlm ZKG igrkhdsts drk sfefadray dhhurdtk3 igr pgflts gl gr dbgvk tnfs aflk, tnk datkrldtfvk fs dt akdstds dhhurdtk”40 gi tnk 20 hdsks. Ds wftn tnk Jrkklbggc dlm EPH igrkhdsts, tnk grfjflda igrkhdst

igr egst gi tnk 20 hgultrfks nds hglsfmkrdbak kxtrd wfjjaks rkadtfvk tg tnk datkrldtfvk (pdlka b), but

tnkrk fs lg ekdlfljiua dhhurdhy jdfl tg sngw igr ft.

8.; ZND] MG ]NKXK RKX[A]X EKD L7 ]ngsk wng ndvk rkdm prfvdtk skhtgr dlm pgafhy flstf-

tutfgl flfldtfgl igrkhdst sueedrfks clgw tndt tnksk rkpgrts drk fflaakm wftn mktdfas dbgut sadhc dlm

egekltue dlm spkhfda idhtgrs fligreflj tnk sndpk gi tnk lkdr-tkre igrkhdst pdtn igr flfldtfgl.4> D

agt gi nfjn-pgwkrkm dldaysfs jgks fltg igreflj tnksk igrkhdsts. Vkt tnk kiigrt tndt jgks fltg hrditflj

tnksk wfjjaks fl tnk pdtn bktwkkl lgwhdst dlm agljkr-rul yfkams lg bklkfflt fl tkres gi dhhurdhy.Xnguam tnfs hglhausfgl surprfsk us7 Pkrndps, but ft fs tnk sgrt gi rksuat tndt _drlgwftz mkshrfbks.

]nk datkrldtfvk bklhnedrc fl tnk igrkhdst dldaysfs hguam bk tngujnt gi ds ndvflj twg ndlmfhdps

rkadtfvk tg tnk iuaa igrkhdst. Ifrst, ft edcks lg dttkept tg kxpagft lgreda hyhak myldefhs. Xkhglm, ft

fjlgrks dly spkhfda kvklts gr tkhnlfhda idhtgrs tndt edy ndvk akm tg prkmfhtdbfafty fl tnk sdepak”

hndljks fl YD], mrgujnts, dlm sg igrtn. Fi wk dhhkpt tndt tnk igrkhdstkrs sklsfbay kxpagft tnksk

spkhfda idhtgrs, ft ekdls tndt tnk bklhnedrc hguam bk edmk tg aggc kvkl bkttkr rkadtfvk tg tnk

grfjflda fi wk hgltflukm tg fjlgrk lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, but tggc dhhgult gi dm ngh kakeklts.

Zndt mgks ft ekdl fi glk igrkhdst fs akss vdrfdbak tndl dlgtnkr, but tnky drk kqudaay dhhurdtk7

Glk efjnt tnflc tndt tnk kxtrd wfjjaks fl tnk egrk vdrfdbak igrkhdst drk supkrflugus, ulrkadtkm tg

tnk tdrjkt. Fi tnfs wkrk tnk hdsk, ngwkvkr, tnk egrk vdrfdbak igrkhdst wguam bk strfhtay akss dhhurdtk.

Flstkdm, tnk kxtrd wfjjaks eust bk sgekwndt dssghfdtkm wftn tnk tdrjkt, but, aggskay spkdcflj, dly

jfvkl wfjjak fs kqudaay afckay tg mkjrdmk ds tg feprgvk tnk igrkhdst sg tndt tnkrk fs lg lkt bklkfflt. 46

]nfs wguam bk hglsfstklt, igr kxdepak, wftn tnk hgrk stgry gi stdlmdrm egmkas bkflj hgrrkht, but

wftn tnk hgligulmflj myldefhs swdepflj tnk sfjlda tndt hdl bk kxtrdhtkm fl rkda tfek.

Zk stdrtkm tnfs skhtfgl by stdtflj sgek prdhtfhda dssueptfgls tndt eust bk sdtfsfflkm igr tnk

lfhk vfkw gi pgafhy dlm lgreda myldefhs tg bk uskiuaay dppafkm fl prdhtfhk. Zk tnflc tndt tnk

kvfmklhk sueedrfzkm nkrk sujjksts tndt tnksk dssueptfgls edy lgt bk ekt fl prdhtfhk. Zftn tnfsds d ouepflj gii pgflt, wk lkxt prksklt d qufhc survky gi eglktdry nfstgry, kepndsfzflj tnk rgak

gi mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs.

4>Igr tngsk ulidefafdr wftn igrkhdst hgeekltdrfks, dly gi tnk Jrkklbggc hftdtfgls bkagw faaustrdtk tnfs pgflt.46Dmmflj tg d igrkhdst lgfsk tndt fs ulhgrrkadtkm wftn tnk tdrjkt eust rdfsk tnk REXPK. Dmmflj d hgepglklt tndt

hgebflks purk lgfsk wftn d sfefadray vdrfdbak hgepglklt gi purk sfjlda, ngwkvkr, wfaa rdfsk tnk igrkhdst vdrfdlhk wftn

lg lkt kiikht gl dhhurdhy.

4;


17/61

= FL X KDRHN GI L GREDA? D XKAKH]FYK NFX]GRFHDA R KYFKZ GI F LIAD]FGL

MVLDEFHX DLM E GLK]DRV P GAFHV

Zk brkdc nfstgry fltg igur pkrfgms (f) 4>;0-46:4? tnk bkjfllflj gi egmkrl eglktdry khglgefks

tg tnk klm gi Brkttgl Zggms3 (ff) 469;-466;? tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl dlm mfsflfldtfgl3 (fff) 466;-200;?tnk LFHK mkhdmk3 (fv) 200;-prksklt? tnk hrfsfs dlm ulhglvkltfglda eglktdry pgafhy.20 ]nk prkhfsk

ykdr bgulmdrfks wk ndvk hngskl drk lgt hrftfhda3 tnk pkrfgms tklm tg baklm fltg glk dlgtnkr. Igr

kxdepak, tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl hgeeklhkm fl tnk efm-4690s, but mfm lgt spkaa tnk klm gi Brkttgl

Zggms ultfa 46:4. Xfefadray, wk wfaa mdtk tnk klm gi tnk Jrkdt mfsflfldtfgl drgulm 466;, mkspftk

tnk idht tndt, mkpklmflj gl tnk khglgey fl qukstfgl, glk efjnt put tnk mdtk kdrafkr gr adtkr. Ifldaay,

ft fs lgt hakdr wnkl wk snguam sdy tndt tnk LFHK mkhdmk jdvk wdy tg kxhkssks tndt ( kx pgst ) hakdray

wkrk ulsustdfldbak, but wk hnggsk 200;.24

=.4 FLIAD]FGL MVLDEFHX DLM EGLK]DRV PGAFHV? 4>;0-46:2 Irge tnk mdwl gi egm-

krl flmustrfda khglgefks sgektfek fl tnk 4>00s ultfa tnk Brkttgl Zggms systke ulrdvkakm, sgek

vkrsfgl gi fflxkm kxhndljk rdtks ulmkrpfllkm by, gr mkffllkm fl tkres gi, tnk jgam stdlmdrm wds tnk

mgefldlt eglktdry drrdljkeklt.22 Fl tnk fmkdafzkm hdsk, hgultrfks gpkrdtflj ulmkr tnk drrdljk-

eklt edfltdflkm d fflxkm prfhk gi jgam, dlm hrgss-bgrmkr pdyeklts febdadlhks hguam uatfedtkay bk

skttakm fl jgam. Fl daa fts flhdrldtfgls tnk systke wds edldjkm (sgektfeks wkaa, sgektfeks pggray)

sg tndt tnk aflc bktwkkl eglky dlm jgam wds lgt strfht SBkrldlck dlm Odeks (4664), Kfhnkljrkkl

(4662)U.

Zk drk aggcflj glay igr jrgss idhts dbgut eglktdry pgafhy dlm flfldtfgl myldefhs fl tnfs skh-

tfgl, dlm tnk prfedry akssgl fs tndt stdbfafty gi flfldtfgl dlm/gr tnk jklkrda prfhk akvka wkrk, by

mksfjl, lgt prfgrftfks fl tnfs systke.

]nk jgam stdlmdrm fs sgektfeks vfkwkm ds dcfl tg d prfhk akvka tdrjkt, but tnfs fs wrglj bgtn

hglhkptudaay dlm fl prdhtfhk. ]nk jklkrda prfhk akvka fs gut gi tnk ndlms gi tnk hkltrda bdlc fl

tnfs systke, dlm wftn tnk prfhk gi jgam fflxkm, tnk jklkrda prfhk akvka fs akit tg wdlmkr wnkrk ft

efjnt. ]nk prfhk akvka fs jgvkrlkm glay by tnk suppay gi jgam rkadtfvk tg tnk eglktdry mkedlms gi

tnk khglgey. Mkiklmkrs gi tnk ‑jgam ds prfhk akvka tdrjkt― vfkw efjnt idaa bdhc gl tnk drjueklt

tndt hndljks fl rkadtfvk prfhks mg lgt hglstftutk flfldtfgl, but lgtnflj prkvklts mfvkrjklt trklms fl

mkedlm dlm suppay irge akdmflj tg vkry pkrsfstklt (gr kvkl pkredlklt) pkrfgms gi jklkrda prfhk

flfldtfgl gr mkfldtfgl. Dlm aglj pkrfgms gi mkfldtfgl wkrk idefafdr ikdturks gi tnk jgam stdlmdrm

20]nk Ikmkrda Rkskrvk nds prgvfmkm d uskiua dllgtdtkm tfekaflk gi edly gi tnksk kvklts fl dssghfdtfgl wftn tnk

400tn dllfvkrsdry hkakbrdtfgls. ]nfs hdl igulm dt nttp?//www.ikmkrdarkskrvknfstgry.grj/Kvklts .24Igr twg kxhkaaklt sueedrfks gi tnk nfstgrfhda tfek skrfks prgpkrtfks gi [.X. flfldtfgl, skk Hgjaky dlm Xdrjklt

(204;) dlm Ldsgl (2009).22Xkk, igr kxdepak, Bkrldlck dlm Odeks (4664), Kfhnkljrkkl (4662), dlm Cflmakbkrjkr (46:8). Kspkhfdaay tnrgujn

tnk fflrst pdrt gi tnk pkrfgm, bf-ektdafse padykm d rgak dlm ft wds dawdys wdftflj fl tnk wfljs.

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SBgrmg dlm Ifadrmg (200;)U. Ft fs rkjuadray lgtkm tndt tnk prfhk akvka fl Kljadlm wds dpprgxfedtkay

tnk sdek fl 4>24 dlm 464= SBgrmg (46>4)U, but tnfs wds lgt d mksfjl ikdturk gi tnk jgam stdlmdrm,

ft wds dl dhhfmklt gi tnk pdhk gi khglgefh mkvkagpeklt vkrsus tngsk gi mfshgvkrfks gi jgam dlm

dmvdlhks fl eflflj tkhnlgagjy.

Fl tnk lfhk vfkw, flfldtfgl fs stdbak dlm, flmkkm, ft skamge mkvfdtks igr vkry aglj by egrk tndlglk pkrhkltdjk pgflt irge tnk flfldtfgl gbokhtfvk. By tnksk hrftkrfd, tnk jgam stdlmdrm wds d nfmkgus

idfaurk. Jklkrda prfhk stdbfafty, ngwkvkr mkffllkm, wds lgt d mksfjl hrftkrfgl.

Zndt mfm tnk systke prgvfmk7 ]nk jgam stdlmdrm flgurfsnkm fl tnk adtk-4>00s wnkl flmustrf-

dafzdtfgl wds ulmkrwdy. Jrgwtn (dlm tnkrkby flvksteklt) prgspkhts gi mfiikrklt ldtfgls mfvkrjkm

wfmkay. ]g d egmkrl khglgefst tnfs mfvkrjklhk sujjksts tndt”fi tnk prgpkr flstftutfgls drk fl

padhk”wk snguam skk adrjk hdpftda dlm trdmk flgws. Xwkkpflj edly hgltkltfgus fssuks rkjdrmflj

pdrtfhuadrs ulmkr tnk ruj, tnk jgam stdlmdrm tnrgujn tnfs pkrfgm wds tnk dttkept by tnflckrs gi tnk

mdy tg kstdbafsn d wgrcdbak systke tg idhfaftdtk tnksk pkrsfstkltay mfvkrjklt myldefhs. ]nk kvgau-

tfgl gi tnk jgam systke klmkm wftn tnk Brkttgl Zggms systke, wnfhn prgvkm tg bk dl ulhgeigrtdbak

dttkept tg edrry tnk fflxfty gi tnk jgam stdlmdrm wftn mgekstfh flkxfbfafty. 28

D skhglm akssgl irge tnfs pkrfgm, tnkl, fs tndt pkrsfstkltay fluhtudtflj mfiikrkltfda jrgwtn rdtks

gi ldtfgls drk d prgeflklt ikdturk gi tnk wgram khglgey. ]nk wgram eglktdry systke eust dh-

hgeegmdtk tnfs. ]nrkk dmmftfglda pgflts drk wgrtn lgtflj jfvkl tnkfr rkakvdlhk tg tgmdy.

Ifrst, ft fs igaay tg tnflc gi eglktdry drrdljkeklts ds hngskl dlm tnkl fflxkm igr daa tfek. Pkrndps

tnfs snguam ndvk bkkl gbvfgus irge tnk rkjuadr suspklsfgls gi jgam hglvkrtfbfafty gvkr tnk kltfrk

jgam stdlmdrm pkrfgm, but tnfs hglhausfgl surkay snguam ndvk bkkl hakdr by tnk klm gi Brkttgl

Zggms fl 46:4. Lglktnkakss, ft fs stfaa hgeegl tg skk tnksk eglktdry systkes egmkaakm ds fi fflxkmigr daa tfek. Iurtnkr, wk nkdr pgafhyedckrs edck stdtkeklts tndt degult tg tnk hadfe ‑tnkrk fs

lg padl B ds idr ds eglktdry drrdljkeklts drk hglhkrlkm.―2= Padl Bs drk dawdys tnkrk, kvkl fi

pgafhyedckrs mgl‖t wdlt tg tdac dbgut tnke. Pgaftfhda systkes drk fl pdrt mksfjlkm tg edck hkrtdfl

struhturks ‑stfhcy,― but mfspdrdtk myldefhs fl tnk wgram khglgey vkry rkjuadray put skvkrk strkssks

gl suhn kiigrts.

Xkhglm, ds Ekatzkr (4666) rkeflmkm Odhcsgl Ngak dumfklhks dlm fs egrk tngrgujnay mghu-

ekltkm fl Bgrmg dlm Ifadrmg (200;), tnk mkfldtfgls tndt wkrk dl flkvftdbak pdrt gi afik ulmkr tnk

jgam stdlmdrm wkrk idr irge ulfigreay trdjfh. Xgek pkrfgms gi mkfldtfgl wkrk quftk pdfliua, but

gtnkrs wkrk egrk lgreda gr kvkl bgge tfeks. ]nk rkakvdlhk gi tnksk pkrfgms gi bklfjl mkfldtfgl tg

28Kfhnkljrkkl (200=).2=Xgektfeks tnk stdtkeklt fs aftkrda. Gl Dprfa =, 2048 KHB Prksfmklt Edrfg Mrdjnf rkspglmkm tg d qukstfgl dbgut

tnk pgssfbfafty gi d hgultry‖s kxft irge tnk Kurgzglk wftn tnk stdtkeklt? ‑S]Unky ckkp gl dscflj qukstfgls afck? „Fi

tnk Kurg brkdcs mgwl, dlm fi d hgultry akdvks tnk Kurg.‖ Ft‖s lgt afck d safmflj mggr. Ft‖s d vkry fepgrtdlt tnflj. Ft‖s d

prgokht fl tnk Kurgpkdl [lfgl. ]ndt‖s wny ygu ndvk d vkry ndrm tfek dscflj pkgpak afck ek „wndt wguam ndppklkm

fi.‖ Lg Padl B.―

4:


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0

2

=

9

>

4 0

p k r h k l t

4690 46:0 46>0 4660 2000 2040

Ifjurk ;? [.X. Dlluda PHK Flfldtfgl. Xgurhk? BKD vfd IRKM, dutngrs‖ hgeputdtfgls.

tgmdy fs drjudbak gi hgursk3 tgmdy‖s vdstay mfiikrklt flstftutfgls edy fepay tndt mfiikrklt guthgeks

efjnt bk gbskrvkm.

]nfrm, dlm egrk tkltdtfvkay, ft fs lgt hakdr tndt dly khglgey idhkm dlytnflj glk wguam hdaa

d mkfldtfgldry trdp murflj tnfs pkrfgm. Edly gi tnk mkfldtfgls wkrk ksskltfdaay pgafhy flmuhkm,

kftnkr by dmnkrklhk tg tnk jgam stdlmdrm gr by mksfrks gi ldtfgls tg rkturl tg tnk jgam stdlmdrm dt

sgek igrekr pdrfty. Idust (204;) khngks Ekatzkr fl drjuflj tndt ft fs lgt hakdr tndt dly ldtfgl tndt

dssfmugusay dttkeptkm tg dvgfm mkfldtfgl idfakm tg mg sg. Zk rkturl tg tnfs pgflt brfkfly bkagw.

=.2 LGREDA( !7 ) FLIAD]FGL MVLDEFHX DLM EGLK]DRV PGAFHV? 469;-466; Flfldtfgl

bkjdl tg rfsk fl edly khglgefks drgulm 469;, dlm Brkttgl Zggms jdvk wdy sngrtay tnkrkditkr.

]nkrk bkjdl d lkdray wgramwfmk rfsk fl flfldtfgl tndt mfm lgt bkjfl tg turl ultfa dbgut 46>0.

Zk mdtk tnk klm gi tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl dt 466;, but tngsk wng drk ighuskm gl tnk [lftkm Xdtks gr

gl tnk rkedrcdbak mrgp fl gutput vgadtfafty tndt skkekm tg ghhur drgulm 46>; efjnt pfhc dl kdrafkr

mdtk. Znktnkr gr lgt tnk egmkrdtfgl fl gutput vgadtfafty wds dttrfbutdbak tg pgafhy, ft ghhurrkm wkaa

bkigrk dlyglk ndm d hakdr pfhturk tndt tnk [lftkm Xtdtks gr gtnkr khglgefks wguam dhnfkvk prfhk

stdbfafty ds ft fs lgw hglhkfvkm. ]ndt fs, flfldtfgl wds lgt hakdray fluhtudtflj fl d ldrrgw rdljk

gi twg pkrhklt igr daegst dlgtnkr mkhdmk ditkr tnk jrgwtn egmkrdtfgl bkjdl fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks

Sffljurk ;U. Fl euhn gi tnk rkst gi tnk wgram, tnk mfsflfldtfgl wds hakdray lgt hgepaktk bkigrk 466;

dlm, kspkhfdaay gutsfmk tnk egst dmvdlhkm khglgefks, tnk nfjn flfldtfgl pkrfgm kxtklmkm dt akdst

igr skvkrda egrk ykdrs SIdust (2048), Rgjgii (200=)U.

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Bkrldlck (2008d) drjuks,

]nk prfedry hdusk gi tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl, egst khglgefsts wguam djrkk, wds gvkr-

kxpdlsfgldry eglktdry dlm fflshda pgafhfks, bkjfllflj fl tnk efm-4690s dlm hgltfluflj,

fl fflts dlm stdrts, wkaa fltg tnk 46:0s.

Oust wny pgafhyedckrs edmk tnksk efstdcks nds bkkl tnk subokht gi idshfldtflj mfshussfgl dt

tnfs syepgsfue. Igr kxdepak, Rgekr dlm Rgekr (2002) jfvk d edogr rgak tg khglgefsts dlm

pgafhyedckrs ulakdrlflj dlm rk-akdrlflj tndt tnkrk fs lg aglj-rul kepagyeklt bklkfflt irge nfjnkr

flfldtfgl. Fl rkspglsk, Xdrjklt (2002) jfvks d egrk prgeflklt rgak tg bdm snghcs dlm tnk lkkm tg

akdrl dbgut mkkpkr fssuks, rdtnkr tndl rk-akdrl bdsfh glks. Edly gtnkrs ndvk wkfjnkm fl gl tnfs

tgpfh.2;

Glk flmfsputdbak akssgl irge tnfs kxpkrfklhk, ngwkvkr, fs rkflkhtkm fl d mkkp dlm brgdm hgl-

vfhtfgl deglj pgafhyedckrs dlm dhdmkefhs tndt prfhk stdbfafty”jklkrdaay fltkrprktkm ds agw dlmstdbak flfldtfgl”fs tnk hkltrda gbokhtfvk gi eglktdry pgafhy.

Zk ndvk mkafbkrdtkay pdfltkm tnfs lkw vfkw gi eglktdry pgafhy ds d lkdr pgadr gppgsftk gi tnk

mksfjl hrftkrfgl ulmkr tnk jgam stdlmdrm. Fl tnk jgam stdlmdrm, fltkrldtfglda hglsfmkrdtfgls mgef-

ldtk dlm tnk mgekstfh prfhk akvka fs akit tg wdlmkr wnkrk ft efjnt. Fl tnk lkw vfkw, tnk mgekstfh

prfhk akvka fs tnk prfedry hglsfmkrdtfgl dlm oust wndt tnfs ekdls igr fltkrldtfglda febdadlhks fs fl

tnk bdhcjrgulm. Xgek dmnkrklts tg tnk lfhk vfkw edy prksuek tndt”kvkl fl d wgram gi mfspdrdtk

pkrsfstkltay mfvkrjklt jrgwtn”jagbda stdbfafty wguam bk tnk lgre fi hkltrda bdlcs daa fjlgrkm kdhn

gtnkr dlm sfepay dfekm dt mgekstfh prfhk stdbfafty. Dly suhn prksueptfgl fs lgt bdskm gl dhtuda

nfstgrfhda kxpkrfklhk tndt wk drk dwdrk gi.

]nk 469;‘466; pkrfgm dasg prgvfmkm dlgtnkr akssgl pkrtflklt tg gur tnkek gi mfspdrdtk hgl-

igulmflj myldefhs. ]wg edogr gfa prfhk snghcs ghhurrkm fl tnk 46:0s. ]nk fepgrtdlhk gi tnksk

snghcs fl tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl fs mfsputkm, but ft fs ulqukstfgldbay truk tndt wnkl fepgrtdlt rkadtfvk

prfhks hndljk mrdedtfhdaay, tnk lkdr-tkre fepafhdtfgls igr dpprgprfdtk pgafhy edy bk subtak. ]nfs

pkrfgm usnkrkm fl tnk lgtfgl gi hgrk flfldtfgl SJgrmgl (46:;)U, dlm hkltrda bdlcs bkjdl tg rgutflkay

dttkept tg aggc tnrgujn tnk kiikhts gfa dlm iggm prfhk snghcs.

But aggcflj tnrgujn fs lgt dawdys sg kdsy. Igr kxdepak, sgek drjuk tndt tnk gfa snghcs wkrk

dssghfdtkm wftn d prgmuhtfvfty sagwmgwl SLgrmndus (200=)U dlm tndt efspkrhkptfgls gi tnk prg-muhtfvfty kiikhts by tnk Ikm hgltrfbutkm tg tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl SBuaadrm dlm Kuskpf (2008)U.29 ]nk

2;Igr gtnkr pkrspkhtfvks gl pgafhyedckrs akdrlflj dlm gl tnk rgak gi fflshda pgafhy, skk Mdvfj dlm Akkpkr (2009),

Prfefhkrf (2009), Kuskpf dlm Prkstgl (2048), dlm Bfdlhnf dlm Faut (204=).29Buaadrm dlm Kuskpf usk d akdrlflj egmka tg drjuk tndt efspkrhkptfgls gi trklm prgmuhtfvfty wkrk hkltrda tg tnk

Jrkdt Flfldtfgl. Akdrlflj hdl ftskai bk d hgligulmflj sgurhk gi myldefhs, ds Kuskpf kt da. (204;) sngw wnkl djklts

ngam subokhtfvk bkafkis tndt edhrg mdtd hgltdfl agw-irkquklhy mrfit. Dasg skk Kuskpf dlm Prkstgl‖s (204;) tngrgujn

survky dbgut tnk fepafhdtfgls gi fepkrikht clgwakmjk. Dl datkrldtfvk tg akdrlflj tndt dasg hgligulms sgurhks gi

syldefhs fs tnk nktkrgjklgus bkafkis tndt Cdsd kt da. (204=) dlm Rglmfld dlm Zdackr (204=d,b) mkvkagp.

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rkadtfvk prfhk gi gfa dasg fltkrdhtkm fl mrdedtfh wdys wftn gur tnkek gi mfvkrjklt myldefhs fl

jrgwtn dlm hdpftda flgws. ]nk hglvkltfglda stgry jgks afck tnfs?

Pktrg mgaadr rkhyhaflj fs d idefafdr stgry irge tnk 46:0s. Znkl gfa prfhks rgsk sndrpay

fl tnk idaa gi 46:8, gfa kxpgrtflj hgultrfks wkrk idhkm wftn d wflmidaa fl kxpgrt rkhkfpts.Euhn gi tnksk iulms wkrk sdvkm dlm mkpgsftkm wftn bdlcs fl flmustrfda hgultrfks. ]nk

bdlcs, fl turl, aklt gl d adrjk pdrt gi tnksk iulm tg kekrjflj khglgefks, kspkhfdaay

fl Adtfl Dekrfhd. . . . Znkl tnk gfa bgge subsfmkm fl tnk kdray 46>0s, bdlc flgws tg

kekrjflj edrckts rkvkrskm sndrpay, trfjjkrflj tnk Adtfl Dekrfhdl mkbt hrfsfs. SZfk-

jdlm (200>, p. =)U

Fl turl, ft hguam bk drjukm tndt tnk bagssgeflj gi tnk Adtfl Dekrfhdl mkbt hrfsfs akm (igr bkttkr

gr wgrsk) tg d sfjlffflhdlt kdsflj gi [.X. eglktdry pgafhy, tnkrkby sagwflj (igr bkttkr gr wgrsk) tnk

mfsflfldtfgl fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks.]g put tnfs egrk jklkrfhdaay? stghndstfh trklms fl rkadtfvk prfhks hdl jrkdtay hgepafhdtk egl-

ktdry pgafhy. Fl dl fltkrhgllkhtkm, jklkrda kqufafbrfue wgram, tnksk trklms edy fltkrdht fl hge-

pafhdtkm wdys tndt drk lgt kdsy tg ‑aggc tnrgujn― by sfepay fflatkrflj gut sgek hgepglklt gi cky

vdrfdbaks ds fl tnk ighus gl hgrk flfldtfgl.

Ifldaay, mkegjrdpnfhs padykm d subtak rgak fl tnfs pkrfgm, ds tnk mkegjrdpnfh hgngrt clgwl ds

tnk bdby bgge prgbdbay rkdhnkm fts adrjkst lkt lgeflda mkbt pgsftfgl murflj tnfs pkrfgm dlm bkl-

kfflttkm ndlmsgekay irge tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl‖s kiikht gl tnk vdauk gi tnfs mkbt. 2: Znfak ikw wguam

drjuk tndt tnk bggekrs hglshfgusay hglspfrkm tg kljflkkr tnk flfldtfgl, tnk flfldtfgl edy ndvk bkkl

euhn kdsfkr tg sustdfl pgaftfhdaay jfvkl tnk bklkfflts tndt tnfs adrjk hgngrt rkhkfvkm SKfhnkljrkkl

(4662), Idust (4669)U. Egrk jklkrdaay, Buaadrm kt da. (2042) edck d pgaftfhda khglgey drjueklt

tndt wnkl d adrjk skjeklt gi tnk pgpuadtfgl fs ygulj, wk edy kxpkht tg skk nfjn flfldtfgl, but ds

ft djks, agw flfldtfgl fs tnk egrk afckay guthgek.

Drgulm 466;, tnk Jrkdt Flfldtfgl yfkamkm tg tnk LFHK mkhdmk. Zk skt tnfs pkrfgm dsfmk igr

mkkpkr hglsfmkrdtfgl fl skhtfgl ;, dlm turl lgw tg tnk hrfsfs dlm rkhgvkry.

=.8 200;‘7777. IFLDLHFDA H RFXFX DLM ]NK _KRG BG[LM Jrgwtn sagwkm fl edly khglgefks

fl 200:3 tnk hrfsfs baggekm tg iuaa fltklsfty fl tnk idaa gi 200>3 dlm tnk hrftfhda pndsk gi tnk hrfsfs

wds gvkr by efm-2006. ]nk hrfsfs bgtn put d spgtafjnt gl dlm wgrsklkm hkrtdfl sgvkrkfjl mkbt

fssuks fl tnk kurg drkd, wnfhn rkedfl d sgurhk gi strkss.

]nk pkrfgm gi rkhgvkry tndt hgltfluks tg tnfs mdy nds lgt flvgavkm wndt dlyglk wguam ngpk fs

lgreda pgafhy. Fi wk drk ckkpflj shgrk purkay fl tkres gi flfldtfgl, ngwkvkr, tnk pkrfgm irge 200>

tnrgujn 204= mgks lgt aggc sg bdm”kspkhfdaay rkadtfvk tg egst prfgr nfstgry. Znfak tnkrk ndvk

2:]nfs fs egst truk wnkrk fflxkm fltkrkst rdtks prkmgefldtkm, ds fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks.

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− 4

0

4

2

8

=

p k r h k l t

2000 200; 2040 204;mdtk

PHK fliadtfgl Hgrk PHK fliadtfgl

Ifjurk 9? [.X. Hgrk dlm nkdmaflk PHK flfldtfgl3 hgrk kxhaumks iggm dlm klkrjy hgepglklts.

Xgurhk? BKD dlm dutngrs‖ hgeputdtfgls.

bkkl, dlm hgltfluk tg bk, skrfgus hglhkrls dbgut mkfldtfgl, tnk [lftkm Xtdtks, [lftkm Cfljmge,

dlm kurg drkd ndvk lgt kxpkrfklhkm egrk tndl vkry brfki dlm efam bguts gi dhtuda mkfldtfgl. Igr

kxdepak, hgrk flfldtfgl nds bkkl quftk stkdmy fl tnk [lftkm Xtdtks, dlm gvkrdaa flfldtfgl skamge ikaa

bkagw zkrg Sffljurk 9U. Flfldtfgl fl tnk [lftkm Cfljmge nds jklkrdaay bkkl wkaa dwdy irge zkrg,

dlm kurg-drkd flfldtfgl nds rdrkay bkkl lkjdtfvk Sffljurk :U.

]nksk flfldtfgl guthgeks drk hglsfstklt wftn tnk vfkw tndt lg ldtfgl gr hkltrda bdlc tndt mfaf-

jkltay gr sfljak-eflmkmay dttkeptkm tg dvgfm mkfldtfgl nds kvkr idfakm. ]g bk hakdr, wk djrkk wftn

Bkrldlck (2042) dlm gtnkrs tndt tnk Odpdlksk mg lgt prgvfmk dl kxdepak gi sfljak-eflmkmay tryflj

tg dvgfm mkfldtfgl. Ftg dlm Efsncfl (2009) mktdfa tnk edly flstdlhks bktwkkl 466> dlm 2008 wnkl

tnk Bdlc gi Odpdl‖s rnktgrfh dlm dhtfgls rdfskm mgubts dbgut fts hgeefteklt tg rdfsk flfldtfgl Sskk

dasg Ftg (2009) dlm Ndusedl dlm Zfkadlm (204=)U. Zk edck lg prksueptfgl tndt ldtfgls snguam

sfljak-eflmkmay dvgfm mkfldtfgl3 rdtnkr, wk kepndsfzk tndt tnkrk fs d edogr mfiikrklhk bktwkkl d

mkfldtfgl trdp dlm sfepay ndvflj gtnkr prfgrftfks tndl stgppflj mkfldtfgl. Pkrndps khglgefks hdlsafmk irge lgreda tfeks fltg d mkfldtfgldry trdp oust ds sgek tnkgrfks mkshrfbk, but ds Bkrldlck

(2042), Idust (204;), dlm Ekatzkr (4666) drjuk, tnk hgepktflj vfkw tndt sfljak-eflmkm hkltrda

bdlcs ndvk, fl prdhtfhk, dvgfmkm mkfldtfgl edy mkskrvk egrk dttkltfgl.

Datngujn tnk mfspdrdtk hgligulmflj myldefhs wnfhn drk gur edogr tnkek surkay padykm d stdr-

rflj rgak fl tnk hrfsfs, wk wfaa adrjkay skt dsfmk tnfs pkrfgm. Ft fs tgg kdsy tg mrdw d mfstflhtfgl

bktwkkl lgreda tfeks dlm hrfsks dlm hgrmgl gii hgligulmflj myldefhs ds glay rkakvdlt fl hrfsfs

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2

8

=

;

p k r h k l t

2000 200; 2040 204;mdtk

[C NFHP Fliadtfgl kurg−drkd NFHP Fliadtfgl

Ifjurk :? [.C. dlm kurg drkd flfldtfgl. Xgurhk? Ldtfglda dutngrftfks vfd IRKM dlm dutngrs‖ hge-

putdtfgls.

tfeks. ]g eflfefzk tnk rfsc gi tnfs, gur qukst tg ulmkrstdlm lgreda pgafhy dlm flfldtfgl myldefhs

wfaa jklkrdaay skt dsfmk tnk hrfsfs.

; LGREDA I G[LM7 D HAGXKR A GGC D] 466;‘200;

]nk pkrfgm irge 466;‘200; wds tnk subokht gi euhn dttkltfgl dt tnk 200; Odhcsgl Ngak Xyepg-

sfue gl tnk Jrkklspdl akjdhy. D hakdr hglsklsus kekrjkm? tnfs wds dl gutstdlmflj pkrfgm igr

eglktdry pgafhy. Dlm by tnk ektrfh gi nkdmaflk djjrkjdtks dlm nfstgrfhda stdlmdrms, tnk guthgeks

wkrk vkry idvgrdbak flmkkm. Xdmay, tnk flc gl tnk hglikrklhk vgauek wds bdrkay mry bkigrk tnk

wgram wds mkshklmflj fltg d trdjfh ekss3 wk suspkht tndt sgek pdrtfhfpdlts efjnt put d sgekwndt

mfiikrklt spfl gl tnfljs tgmdy. Dlm Rdodl (200;) put d mfiikrklt spfl gl tnfljs kvkl tnkl.

Rkvfkwkrs gi tnk pkrfgm bkigrk tnk hrfsfs lgw hgeb tnrgujn tnk kvfmklhk aggcflj igr sfls gi

gefssfgl dlm hgeefssfgl tndt edy ndvk hgltrfbutkm tg tnk subskquklt mgwlidaa. Gur purpgsk fs

mfiikrklt, dlm wk wfaa lgt mfrkhtay hgeeklt glk wdy gr tnk gtnkr gl tnk qudafty gi pgafhy gvkr tnfs

krd. Zk skkc tg edck twg edfl pgflts.

Ifrst, wndtkvkr tnk ekrfts gi pgafhy bktwkkl 466; dlm 200;, tnk pkrfgm fs lgt dl kxdepak gi

tnk lfhk vfkw dlm gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs. ]nk sfepak wgram rkikrrkm tg by Mrdjnf fl tnk

fltrgmuhtgry qugtk wds egrk eytn tndl rkdafty. Fi wk drk aggcflj igr d pkrfgm tg faaustrdtk tnk

kepfrfhda rkakvdlhk gi tnk lfhk vfkw, wk wfaa ndvk tg aggc kaskwnkrk.

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Xkhglm, wk wfaa drjuk tndt tnk lfhk vfkw skt tnk tglk fl edly pgafhy mfshussfgls. MHM wkrk

fmkltffflkm dlm euhn mfshusskm, but adhcflj dl dldaytfhda rgak fl tnk hglvkltfglda pkrspkhtfvk, tnkfr

pgafhy kiikhts turl gut tg bk dm ngh dlm ulhakdr. ]nfs drjueklt fs lkhkssdrfay nfjnay subokhtfvk,

dlm wk edflay flvftk ygu tg igre ygur gwl gpflfgl.

]nk prfedry dm ngh mkvfdtfgl irge tnk hglvkltfglda vfkw drgsk wnkl Hndfredl Jrkklspdlegrk gr akss sfljak-ndlmkmay hglvflhkm tnk IGEH fl tnk skhglm ndai gi tnk 4660s tg dbdlmgl fts

vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs fl idvgr gi d ‑lkw khglgey― vfkw. ]nk lgtgrfkty tndt tnfs pkrfgm

jklkrdtkm fs tkstdeklt tg ngw rdrkay suhn mkvfdtfgls ghhur.

Zk ighus gl tnk [.X. kxpkrfklhk, tguhnflj gl kvklts kaskwnkrk dt tnk klm glay tg sujjkst tndt

sfefadr fssuks drgsk fl gtnkr hgultrfks. ]nk bgulty gi MHM tndt tnk sngrt 466;‘200; pkrfgm giikrs

up hdl bk uskiuaay mfvfmkm fltg tnrkk kpfsgmks. Irge dbgut 466;‘466>, hglvkltfglda rkdsglflj

pgfltkm tg mfeflfsnflj sadhc dlm rfsflj flfldtfgl, but Jrkklspdl hglvflhkm tnk IGEH tg igrbkdr

tnk rdtk flhrkdsks hdaakm igr ulmkr stdlmdrm rkdsglflj. Ds tnfs kpfsgmk klmkm, tnk mgt-hge bub-

bak kpfsgmk klsukm3 tnk bubbak kvkltudaay burst fl 2000. Fl rkspglsk tg tnk dssghfdtkm khglgefh

hgltrdhtfgl, tnk Ikm agwkrkm tnk ikmkrda iulms rdtk tg glk pkrhklt dlm, wftn sadhc pgfltflj tg wgr-

rfsgek mkhaflks fl flfldtfgl, tnk tnfrm kpfsgmk bkjdl. ]ndt kpfsgmk wds mgefldtkm by mkfldtfgl

wgrrfks, fllgvdtfvk usk gi igrwdrm jufmdlhk, dlm tnk hglulmrue fl aglj-tkre fltkrkst rdtks. Kdhn

gi tnk kpfsgmks fs fflaakm wftn wndt, up ultfa tnk hrfsfs, pdsskm igr nfjn mrded fl dmvdlhkm khglgey

hkltrda bdlcflj3 kdhn nds spdwlkm fepgrtdlt aftkrdturk.

Mfjjflj d bft mkkpkr fltg tnk igrkhdst kvfmklhk fl skhtfgl 8.= prgvfmks d uskiua bdhcmrgp igr

tnk mfshussfgl. Ds darkdmy lgtkm, tnk Ikm‖s flfldtfgl igrkhdst (deglj tnk bkst gl rkhgrm) wds lg

egrk dhhurdtk tndl dl datkrldtfvk bklhnedrc igrkhdst pdtn fligrekm by lg mdtd dt daa bkyglm tnkklmpgflts. Ifjurk > sngws tnk Jrkklbggc igrkhdst gi HPF flfldtfgl igr tnk ykdr bkjfllflj glk

qudrtkr fl tnk iuturk. Igr hadrfty, glay tnk fflrst dlm efmmak Jrkklbggc igrkhdst igr kdhn ykdr drk

rkpgrtkm. ]nk hgrrkspglmflj dhtuda vdauk fs pagttkm dt tnk mdtk gi tnk igrkhdst, lgt tnk mdtk wnkl ft

wds rkdafzkm.

]nk fflrst dlm tnfrm kpfsgmks sngw d vkry hakdr pdttkrl gi igrkhdst krrgr. Flfldtfgl hdek fl hgl-

sfstkltay agwkr tndl prkmfhtkm fl tnk fflrst, lkw khglgey, kpfsgmk dlm flfldtfgl hdek fl hglsfstkltay

nfjnkr tndl igrkhdst fl tnk mkfldtfgl shdrk kpfsgmk. Zk lgw dttkept tg snkm sgek afjnt gl ngw tnk

lfhk vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs edy nkap us ulmkrstdlm tnfs pkrfgm.

;.4 ]NK JRKKLXPDL LKZ KHGLGEV K PFXGMK Ds tnk kdray 4660s rkhkssfgl turlkm tg kxpdl-

sfgl, hglvkltfglda ekdsurks gi tfjntklflj sadhc pgfltkm tg rfsflj flfldtfgl. ]nfs vfkw wds rkflkhtkm

fl tnk Jrkklbggc igrkhdst,2> but dasg fl tnk Hglsklsus Igrkhdsts igrkhdst dlm tnk FEI‖s ZKG

igrkhdst. Dhhgrmflj IGEH trdlshrfpts dlm gtnkr dhhgults SEkykr (2009), Baflmkr dlm Vkaakl

2>Ft fs fepgrtdlt tg lgtk tndt tnk Jrkklbggc igrkhdst fs d stdii igrkhdst, dlm mfm lgt rkflkhtkm hglvkltfglda wfsmge

rdtnkr tndl Jrkklspdl‖s vfkw.

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466= 4669 466> 2000 2002 200= 20090.;

4

4.;

2

2.;

8

8.;

=

mdtk

p k r h k l t

Ifjurk >? Dhtuda (sgafm) dlm Jrkklbggc igrkhdst (mdsnkm) gi HPF flfldtfgl igr tnk ykdr stdrtflj

glk-qudrtkr fl tnk iuturk. Zk pagt glay tnk fflrst (Odludry gr Ikbrudry) dlm efmmak (Oulk gr Ouay)

igrkhdst dlm guthgek igr kdhn ykdr. Xgurhk? Ikmkrda Rkskrvk, dutngrs‖ hdahuadtfgl

(2004), dlm Baflmkr dlm Rkfs (200;)U, Hndfredl Jrkklspdl sklskm dl ulprkhkmkltkm pkrfgm gi

rdpfm prgmuhtfvfty jrgwtn dlm egrk gr akss sfljak-ndlmkmay hglvflhkm tnk IGEH tg ‑igrbkdr― tnk

pgafhy rdtk flhrkdsks rkhgeeklmkm ulmkr tnk lfhk vfkw.26 ]ndt tnfs wds d mkvfdtfgl irge stdlmdrm

rkdsglflj skkes hakdr. Ds Baflmkr dlm Rkfs (200;, p. ;>) put ft?

Zds tndt tnk gptfeda pgafhy rkspglsk7 Zng rkdaay clgws. (]ngujn wk suspkht ft wds

hagsk.) But ft hkrtdflay wdsl‖t tnk gbvfgus pgafhy rkspglsk. Fl idht, wk bkafkvk tndt ikw

hkltrda bdlckrs wguam ndvk ndm tnk lkrvk tg stdlm by hdaeay ds tnk ulkepagyeklt rdtk

mfppkm (dlm stdykm) tndt agw. Dlm wk clgw irge fflrstndlm dhhgults tndt Jrkklspdl

wds ngamflj bdhc dl IGEH tndt wds kdjkr tg rdfsk rdtks.

Baflmkr dlm Rkfs rkpgrt kvfmklhk, bdskm gl tnk fflt gi ]dyagr ruaks, tndt tnk Ikm‖s bkndvfgr wds

egst hglsfstklt wftn d ]dyagr ruak fl wnfhn tnk ldturda rdtk gi ulkepagyeklt wds mrgppflj rdpfmay

gvkr tnfs pkrfgm. Mgrlbushn (4666) djrkks tndt tnfs wds lgt pgafhy ds klvfsfglkm ulmkr tnk lfhk

vfkw, but sujjksts d jrkdtkr hglhkrl wftn hgligulmflj myldefhs?

]nk Ikm‖s kxpkrfekltdtfgl fl mfsrkjdrmflj Pnfaafps hurvks dlm padhflj jrkdt hglfflmklhk

fl tnkfr bkttkr ulmkrstdlmflj gi tnk Lkw Khglgey fs d cky pdrt bgtn fl nfjn iulmd-

26Ds Baflmkr dlm Vkaakl lgtk, tnk lkw khglgey efrdhak wds lgt rkdaay fl tnk edhrg mdtd ultfa d edogr rkvfsfgl fl

466>.

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ekltda vdauks fl tnk kxtrd bubbak pdrt. Xurkay, tgg, tnkfr wfaafljlkss tg skk gr suspkht

flhrkdskm prgmuhtfvfty”fl pdrt, quftk pgssfbay, fl rkspglsk tg nfjn vdaudtfgl gi dsskts

dlm tnkfr kiikht gl flvksteklt dlm fllgvdtfgl dlm, nklhk, gl tnk suppay sfmk”edcks

wndt gtnkrwfsk wguam bk d bubbak pgssfbay egrk lkdray iulmdekltda vdauk. SMgrl-

bushn (4666, p. 482)U

Zk wfaa lgt jkt fltg tnk vdafmfty gi tnk hadfe tndt Ikm pgafhy edy ndvk nkapkm iuka tnk mgt-

hge bubbak, but wk wfaa nfjnafjnt Mgrlbushn‖s vfkw gi hgligulmflj myldefhs. Nk spkhuadtks tndt

bubbak-flmuhkm bugydlhy fl tnk khglgey hguam ndvk suppay-sfmk kiikhts tndt, fl turl, egmkrdtk

dly sfjls gi kxhkss tndt efjnt gtnkrwfsk dppkdr fl flmfhdtgrs gi sadhc.

Fl dly hdsk, tnk Jrkklspdl Ikm mkvfdtkm irge tnk pgafhy tndt tnk lfhk vfkw wguam ndvk prk-

shrfbkm. Xgek dldaysts wguam drjuk, dt akdst fl rktrgspkht, tndt tnk Ikm snguam lgt ndvk mkvfdtkm3

gtnkrs efjnt drjuk igr d mfiikrklt mkvfdtfgl. Fl dly hdsk, tnfs pkrfgm faaustrdtks gur vfkw tndt sgrtflj

gut MHMs drk rkjuadray tnk tnk cky tg pgafhyedcflj.]nk igrkbkdrdlhk kpfsgmk baklmkm seggtnay fltg tnk mgt-hge bubbak. ]nk LDXMDT bkjdl d

stkkp dshklt fl 4666, pkdcflj drgulm Edrhn gi 2000 dlm tnkl idaaflj tnrgujn egst gi 2002 tg akss

tndl glk-tnfrm gi fts pkdc vdauk.

Fl tnk lfhk vfkw, pgafhy rkspglms tg tnk stdtk gi flfldtfgl dlm sgek sueedry gi rkda dhtfvfty.

Bubbaks drk lgt gl tnfs sngrt afst, dlm skvkrda IGEH ekebkrs, flhaumflj Jrkklspdl (2002), stdtkm

tnk hglvkltfglda wfsmge tndt usflj eglktdry pgafhy tg bdttak bubbaks wds fldpprgprfdtk.

[lmkr tnk lfhk vfkw pgafhy hdl bk sklsftfvk tg dsskt prfhks, but glay flsgidr ds tnky diikht tnk

tnk twg cky flmfhdtgrs igr pgafhy, flfldtfgl dlm rkda dhtfvfty. Ds Bkrldlck dlm Jkrtakr (4666) put ft

dt Odhcsgl Ngak?

Jfvkl d strglj hgeefteklt tg stdbfafzflj kxpkhtkm flfldtfgl, ft fs lkftnkr lkhkssdry

lgr mksfrdbak igr eglktdry pgafhy tg rkspglm tg hndljks fl dsskt prfhks, kxhkpt tg tnk

kxtklt tndt tnky nkap tg igrkhdst flfldtfgldry gr mkfldtfgldry prkssurks. SBkrldlck dlm

Jkrtakr (4666, p. 44;)U

Jfvkl tndt tnk mgt-hge bust jdvk rfsk tg d mkfldtfgl shdrk, ft edy bk gi sgek fltkrkst tg skk ngw

tnk hgligulmflj myldefhs gi tnk bubbak diikhtkm tnk IGEH‖s vfkw gi fts muda edlmdtk gbokhtfvks.

Dt tnk Mkhkebkr 4666 IGEH ekktflj, Efhndka Prkaa prkskltkm d vkry rgsy edhrg igrkhdst

igr bgtn gutput jrgwtn dlm flfldtfgl”tnk khglgey wds, irge d eglktdry pgafhy stdlmpgflt, ‑pkr-

igreflj spaklmfmay.― But Prkaa hgeekltkm gl rfsflj kqufty vdauks, wdrlflj, ‑Zk bkafkvk tndt tnk

khglgey edy bk jkttflj skrfgusay gvkrnkdtkm dlm fl sgek wdys sfjlffflhdltay mfstgrtkm.―

Hglsfstklt wftn tnk lfhk vfkw, tnk IGEH wds, nk rkeflmkm tnke, eglftgrflj sadhc ds d cky

flmfhdtgr gi tnk prgbake?

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]nfs Hgeefttkk nds, gi hgursk, dllgulhkm fts ighus gl tnk egultflj prkssurks fl tnk

adbgr edrckt ds tnk egst afckay pgtkltfda sgurhk gi mktkrfgrdtflj flfldtfgl pkrigredlhk

dlm tnus hyhafhda flstdbfafty. SIkmkrda Gpkl Edrckt Hgeefttkk (4666)U

Rkjdrmflj mfeflfsnflj sadhc, kvfmklhk wds efxkm, but ‑tnk gifflhfda mdtd dhtudaay sngw mkhkakrdtflj

wdjks.―

Dt tnk rfsc gi bgfaflj tnfljs mgwl tgg idr, glk efjnt sueedrfzk tnfs mfshussfgl ds sdyflj tndt

tnk stghc edrckt fs wgrrfsgek, but wk mg lgt skk ft ykt fl sadhc. Xtdrtflj irge tnk lfhk vfkw, tnkrk

fs lgt d ldturda gr kdsy pdtnwdy irge d pgssfbak bubbak tg sadhc dlm, nklhk, gl tg pgafhy.

]g jkt iurtnkr fltg tnk lftty jrftty, tnk IGEH bdskaflk ighussks gl egmda guthgeks. ]nk

pgppflj gi d bubbak fl dly jfvkl igrkhdst wflmgw wfaa, daegst by mkffllftfgl, lkvkr bk tnk egmda

shkldrfg, sg dly fepafhdtfgls gi bubbaks igr muda edlmdtk gbokhtfvks drk mfshusskm fl datkrldtfvk

shkldrfgs. Fl Edrhn 2000, dbgut dt tnk pkdc gi tnk bubbak, tnk egmda Jrkklbggc gutaggc rkedflkm

idvgrdbak. Prgmuhtfvfty jrgwtn ndm djdfl bkkl edrckm up dlm wds uskm tg kxpadfl dl dbsgautk mk-haflk fl ulft adbgr hgsts. Gl stdlmdrm edhrg jrgulms, tnkrk wds afttak tg hgepadfl dbgut. Ngwkvkr,

Prkaa edmk hakdr,

F stfaa ffllm tnk vdaudtfgls gi edly sg-hdaakm tkhn hgepdlfks”dlm tnk rdtfgldaks dld-

aysts jfvk igr tnke”rdtnkr wdhcy. ]nk idht fs, tngujn, tndt dt ykstkrmdy‖s hagsk tnk

Zfasnfrk ;000 wds up iuaay = pkrhklt irge tnk 48,;00 akvka prkvdfaflj d wkkc djg,

wnkl wk aghckm fltg gur Jrkklbggc dssueptfgl gi d fldt stghc edrckt tnrgujn tnk

prgokhtfgl pkrfgm. SIkmkrda Gpkl Edrckt Hgeefttkk (2000)U

]nk pgssfbak fepafhdtfgls gi d idaa fl stghc prfhks wkrk hgvkrkm fl twg datkrldtfvk shkldrfgs

fl Jrkklbggc, lkftnkr gi wnfhn flvgavkm sfjlffflhdlt mfsruptfgl SIkmkrda Rkskrvk Bgdrm (2000)U.

Xgek hgeekltdtgrs dhhusk hkltrda bdlcs gi bkflj uldwdrk gi wgrrfsgek mkvkagpeklts. Zk tnflc

dwdrklkss fs skamge tnk fssuk. But fi glk stdrts tnk mfshussfgl by jfvflj prfedhy tg tnk lfhk vfkw

gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs, ft edy bk mfifflhuat igr gtnkr fssuks tg jdfl trdhtfgl.

Fl tnk ditkredtn gi tnk bubbak dlm rkhkssfgl, tnk ikmkrda iulms rdtk wds agwkrkm tg glk pkrhklt.

Flfldtfgl wds agw dlm, wftn stdlmdrm kstfedtks sujjkstflj tndt tnkrk wds sfjlffflhdlt sadhc, flfldtfgl

ulmkr tnk lfhk vfkw wds kxpkhtkm tg idaa iurtnkr. ]nfs wds wgrrfsgek jfvkl tnk stdrtflj pgflt.

]nrgujngut 2002 dlm 2008, rkda-sfmk guthgeks tklmkm tg ekkt gr kxhkkm tnk Jrkklbggc igrkhdst,

but surprfsflj prgmuhtfvfty jrgwtn wds d cky pdrt gi tnk jggm lkws. Egrk rdpfm prgmuhtfvfty jrgwtn

ekdlt tndt tnk khglgey hguam kxpdlm egrk qufhcay wftngut tdcflj up tnk sadhc. Zftn tnk pkrfgm

gi sadhc adstflj agljkr, tnk flfldtfgl igrkhdst wds prgjrkssfvkay edrckm mgwl ds tnk rkda sfmk wds

edrckm up.

]nk Oulk 2002 Jrkklbggc igrkhdst sueedry stdtks,

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Jfvkl tnk sadhc fl adbgr dlm prgmuht edrckts tndt nds gpklkm up gvkr tnk pdst ykdr, wk

dltfhfpdtk tndt wdjk dlm hgrk prfhk flhrkdsks wfaa bk sgekwndt sedaakr fl 2002 dlm

2008 tndl fl 2004.. . . Hgrk PHK flfldtfgl fs dltfhfpdtkm tg sagw tg 4.= pkrhklt fl bgtn

2002 dlm 2008, hgepdrkm wftn 4.9 pkrhklt fl 2004. SIkmkrda Rkskrvk Bgdrm (2002,

pp. F-42‘F-48)U

Fl tnk Odludry 2008 sueedry?

Daa tgam, wk ndvk uppkm gur prgokhtfgl gi JMP jrgwtn dbgut 4/= pkrhkltdjk pgflt,

tg 8-4/2 pkrhklt, tnfs ykdr dlm dbgut 4/2 pkrhkltdjk pgflt, tg =-8/= pkrhklt, igr 200=.

SIkmkrda Rkskrvk Bgdrm (2008d, pp. F-4‘F-2)U

Mkspftk tnk idstkr jrgwtn gi rkda dhtfvfty gvkr tnk igrkhdst pkrfgm ds d wngak, wk drk

lgw prgokhtflj d adrjkr jdp fl rksgurhk utfafzdtfgl tndl wk prgokhtkm fl tnk Mkhkebkr

Jrkklbggc, rkflkhtflj upwdrm rkvfsfgls tg gur pgtkltfda gutput. . . . ]nfs pdtn igr tnk

ulkepagyeklt rdtk dlm gur dssuekm flhrkdsk fl struhturda prgmuhtfvfty drk prgokhtkm

tg bk suifflhfklt tg ckkp flfldtfgl trklmflj mgwl. Fl pdrtfhuadr, wk drk igrkhdstflj tndt

hgrk PHK flfldtfgl wfaa mkhaflk irge d bft dbgvk 4-4/2 pkrhklt fl 2002 tg drgulm 4-4/=

pkrhklt fl 2008 dlm 200=, d prgokhtfgl tndt fs mgwl safjntay irge gur prkvfgus glk.

SIkmkrda Rkskrvk Bgdrm (2008d, pp. F-4‘F-2)U

Irge tnk Oulk 2008 Jrkklbggc sueedry?

Ditkr flhrkdsflj dt d 4-4/2 pkrhklt dlluda rdtk fl tnk fflrst ndai gi tnk ykdr, rkda JMP fs

kxpkhtkm tg jrgw dt d =-4/= pkrhklt dlluda rdtk fl tnk skhglm ndai, dbgut 4/8 pkrhkltdjkpgflt egrk tndl fl tnk Dprfa Jrkklbggc.. . . ]nksk pgsftfvk flfluklhks ndvk akm us tg

rdfsk gur 200= rkda JMP prgokhtfgl tg ;-4/= pkrhklt. Datngujn suhn d rdpfm pdhk gi

khglgefh jrgwtn wguam bk d idr hry irge rkhklt kxpkrfklhk, ft rkflkhts gur vfkw tndt

tnk pgwkriua sgurhks gi edhrgkhglgefh stfeuaus wfaa akdm tg d egrk murdbak stkp-up

fl tnk pdhk gi ffllda mkedlm dlm tndt busflkss spklmflj dlm nfrflj wfaa jdfl egekltue

by tnk turl gi tnk ykdr. But tnk rdpfm kxpdlsfgl wk drk prgokhtflj igr lkxt ykdr dasg

rkflkhts fepgrtdltay gur dbgvk-hglsklsus igrkhdst igr tnk jrgwtn gi pgtkltfda gutput. . . .

Xadhc fl rksgurhk utfafzdtfgl fs kxpkhtkm tg put iurtnkr mgwlwdrm prkssurk gl prfhk

flfldtfgl gvkr tnk lkxt ykdr dlm d ndai. Igaagwflj tnfs ykdr‖s mkhkakrdtfgl gi dbgut 4/2

pkrhkltdjk pgflt, hgrk PHK flfldtfgl kmjks mgwl d bft iurtnkr lkxt ykdr, tg oust ulmkr

4 pkrhklt. S(Ikmkrda Rkskrvk Bgdrm, 2008b, pp. F-4‘F-2)U

Dt tnk Oulk 2008 IGEH ekktflj, tnk stdii ‑put tnk prgbdbfafty gi mkfldtfgl dt dbgut 4; pkrhklt

igr tnfs ykdr, oust sngrt gi =0 pkrhklt igr 200=, dlm dbgut =0 pkrhklt igr 200;― SIkmkrda Gpkl

Edrckt Hgeefttkk (2008, p. :;)U.

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Fl afjnt gi tnk hglhkrl wftn mkfldtfgl, fl nfs Ouay 2008 Nuepnrky-Ndwcfls tkstfegly, Hndfr-

edl Jrkklspdl vklturkm fltg tnk wgram gi igrwdrm jufmdlhk, uttkrflj tnk feegrtda wgrms ‑hgl-

sfmkrdbak pkrfgm?―

Fl tnk oumjeklt gi tnk Hgeefttkk, pgafhy dhhgeegmdtfgl dfekm dt rdfsflj tnk jrgwtn

gi gutput, bggstflj tnk utfafzdtfgl gi rksgurhks, dlm wdrmflj gii ulwkahgek mfsflfld-

tfgl hdl bk edfltdflkm igr d hglsfmkrdbak pkrfgm wftngut uatfedtkay stgcflj flfldtfgl-

dry prkssurks. SJrkklspdl (200;)U

]nk pgafhy tfjntklflj tndt bkjdl fl Oulk 200=, wds prksdjkm fl tnk Edy IGEH stdtkeklt

wftn tnk iurtnkr igrwdrm jufmdlhk, ‑Dt tnfs oulhturk, wftn flfldtfgl agw dlm rksgurhk usk sadhc,

tnk Hgeefttkk bkafkvks tndt pgafhy dhhgeegmdtfgl hdl bk rkegvkm dt d pdhk tndt fs afckay tg bk

ekdsurkm. . . ― SIkmkrda Gpkl Edrckt Hgeefttkk (200=d)U.

]nk IGEH tnkl hgeeklhkm twg ykdrs fl wnfhn tnk ikmkrda iulms rdtk rgsk rkafdbay 2; bdsfs

pgflts kdhn IGEH ekktflj. ]nk ikmkrda iulms rdtk wklt irge glk pkrhklt tg ; 4/= pkrhklt gvkr

tnfs pkrfgm, but gvkr tnk sdek pkrfgm, yfkams gl aglj-tkre ]rkdsury skhurftfks wkrk ksskltfdaay

ulhndljkm. Ft fs lgw jklkrdaay djrkkm tndt tnkrk wds d substdltfda idaa fl tnk tkre prkefue gvkr

tnfs pkrfgm SBdhcus dlm Zrfjnt (200:)U.

Dt tnk Mkhkebkr 200=, Yfhk Hndfredl Cgnl rdfskm tnfs fssuk,

F dasg ffllm tnk rkhklt bkndvfgr gi bglm yfkams ndrm tg ulmkrstdlm. Znfak tnfs Hgeefttkk

nds bkhgek flhrkdsfljay hglfflmklt gi tnk vfjgr gi tnk kxpdlsfgl gvkr rkhklt egltns,

aglj-tkre yfkams ndvk dhtudaay mkhaflkm, dlm egst gi tnfs mkhrkdsk fs dhhgultkm igr bytnk mkhrkdsks fl rkda rdtks. SIkmkrda Gpkl Edrckt Hgeefttkk (200=b)U

Cgnl (200;) lgtkm tnk pgssfbak pgafhy fepafhdtfgls gi tkre prkefd idaaflj?

Igr kxdepak, tnk mkhaflk fl tkre prkefues fl tnk ]rkdsury edrckt gi adtk edy ndvk

hgltrfbutkm tg ckkpflj aglj-tkre fltkrkst rdtks rkadtfvkay agw dlm, hglskqukltay, edy

ndvk suppgrtkm tnk ngusflj skhtgr dlm hglsuekr spklmflj egrk jklkrdaay.

]nfs ulusuda (mdrk wk sdy ‑hgligulmflj―7) myldefh wds adbkaakm tnk hglulmrue fl Jrkklspdl‖s

Oulk 200; eglktdry pgafhy tkstfegly. Hdaaflj tnfs d hglulmrue wds dlgtnkr wdy tg sdy ft mgks

lgt fflt fl tnk lfhk vfkw gi lgreda hyhafhda myldefhs fl wnfhn tkre prkefue myldefhs pady lg rkda

rgak, ds Rumkbushn kt da. (200:) lgtkm dlm Zggmigrm (2042) kepndsfzkm.

Xgek hgeekltdtgrs, flhaumflj prksfmklt Prksfmklt Mumaky gi tnk Ikmkrda Rkskrvk Bdlc gi

Lkw Vgrc, ndvk subskqukltay hgeekltkm tndt tnk Ikm wds, fl idht, tfjntklflj akss tndl fltklmkm

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dlm, pkrndps, snguam ndvk mglk egrk.80 Znktnkr tnk Ikm‖s jrdmudafse nkapkm tg iuka tnk ngusflj

bubbak rkedfls ngtay mkbdtkm.

;.2 DMMF]FGLDA HGLIG[LMFLJ KAKEKL]X Akt us rkturl brfkfly tg tnk kakeklts gi mfspdrdtk

hgligulmflj myldefhs prksklt fl skhtfgl 8 dlm mfshuss tnk rgaks tnky padykm fl tnk LFHK mkhdmk.Kdray fl tnk 2000s, Ikmkrda Rkskrvk pgafhyedckrs wkrk hagskay eglftgrflj tnk rfsflj nguskngam

flmkbtkmlkss Sffljurk 4U. Ds Jrkklspdl (200=) hgeekltkm

SEdly dldaystsU ndvk bkkl mfsturbkm pdrtfhuadray by tnk rfsflj rdtfg gi nguskngam mkbt

tg flhgek dlm tnk prkhfpftgus mkhaflk fl tnk nguskngam sdvflj rdtk. ]nk dldaysts pgflt

gut, hgrrkhtay, tndt tnk rdtfg gi nguskngam mkbt tg mfspgsdbak flhgek nds rfskl kspkhfdaay

stkkpay gvkr tnk pdst fflvk ykdrs dlm, dt 4.2, fs dt d rkhgrm nfjn.

Nk hgltfluks,

]g bk surk, sgek nguskngams drk strkthnkm tg tnkfr afefts. ]nk pkrsfstkltay kakvdtkm

bdlcrupthy rdtk rkedfls d hglhkrl, ds ft flmfhdtks pghckts gi mfstrkss fl tnk nguskngam

skhtgr. But tnk vdst edogrfty dppkdr dbak tg hdafbrdtk tnkfr bgrrgwflj dlm spklmflj tg

eflfefzk fflldlhfda mfifflhuatfks. ]nus, sngrt gi d sfjlffflhdlt idaa fl gvkrdaa nguskngam

flhgek gr fl ngek prfhks, mkbt skrvfhflj fs ulafckay tg bkhgek mkstdbfafzflj.

Gi hgursk, rkadtfvk ngusk prfhks, tgg, wkrk sngwflj dl ulprkhkmkltkm surjk.

]kre prkefd, trklmflj mgwl igr edly ykdrs, ikaa sndrpay stdrtflj drgulm 200= jfvflj rfsk tg

tnk hglulmrue Sffljurk 2U. [lmkr tnk lfhk vfkw, tnk hkltrda bdlc skts fts pgafhy rdtk systkedtfhdaay

bdskm gl gutput dlm flfldtfgl, prksueflj wk suppgsk tndt agljkr-tkre rdtks wfaa bkndvk fl sgek

lgreda wdy. ]urlkr (2048) hndrdhtkrfzks tnk rgak gi aglj-tkre fltkrkst rdtks”ds mfstflht irge tnk

pdtn gi kxpkhtkm iuturk sngrt rdtks”ds ‑bklfjl lkjakht.― Nk drjuks tndt fligredtfgl fl aglj rdtks

hdl akdm tg irksn fltkrprktdtfgls gi skvkrda kpfsgmks bktwkkl 4660 dlm tnk fflldlhfda hrfsfs.

Ds sngwl fl ffljurk 8 pdrt gi tnk sgitlkss fl flfldtfgl murflj tnk 2002-200= pkrfgm fs dttrfbutdbak

tg tnk flfldtfgl rdtk fl gtnkr jggms idaaflj irge drgulm zkrg tg bkagw eflus twg pkrhklt3 gtnkr

skrvfhks flfldtfgl rgsk egmkstay gvkr tnk sdek pkrfgm. D vdrfkty gi wgrc rkpgrtkm nkrk dt Odhcsgl

Ngak sujjksts tndt flhrkdsflj hgepktftfgl irge Hnfld dlm kaskwnkrk fl tnk kekrjflj wgram edyndvk padykm d prgeflklt rgak fl tnfs mrgp fl jggms flfldtfgl SRgjgii (200=)U.

Gi hgursk, fl d jklkrda kqufafbrfue wgram, daa gi tnk

Documents

Faust & Leeper - Myth of Normal -The Bumpy Story of Inflation and Monetary Policy