FBA FA Section7 Profitability Analysisfahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/2013 ESCP FA/fba_fa... · Financial Analysis Section 7. Profitability and illiquidity Risk Analysis Margin Analysis

Financial AnalysisFinancial Analysis

Section 7.Section 7.Section 7.Section 7.Section 7.Section 7.

Profitability and illiquidity Risk AnalysisProfitability and illiquidity Risk Analysis

Margin AnalysisMargin AnalysisReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Return Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y

Section 7.Section 7.

Profitability and illiquidity Risk AnalysisProfitability and illiquidity Risk Analysis

Margin AnalysisMargin AnalysisReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Return Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y

Fahmi Ben Abdelkader ©

ESCP, ParisFall 2013

Return Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Return Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Illiquidity risk: short and longIlliquidity risk: short and long--term ratiosterm ratiosReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Return Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Illiquidity risk: short and longIlliquidity risk: short and long--term ratiosterm ratios

10/23/2013 10:37 AM 1

Learning objectives

� Understand the structure of the profitability analysis

� Prepare a common-size analysis as well as a trend analysis � Prepare a common-size analysis as well as a trend analysis

� Define, calculate and interpret key financial ratios such as profit margin, return on invested capital, and Asset turnover

� Identify the limitations in using return on invested capital

� Understand the importance of trends and levels in key financial ratios

� Recognize that benchmarking is typically based on a comparison with the

Fahmi Ben Abdelkader © Financial Statement Analysis10/23/2013 10:37 AM 2

� Recognize that benchmarking is typically based on a comparison with the required rate of return or competitors

� Understand the impact of financial leverage on profitability

Profit Margin Analysis Versus Return Analysis

Profitability and Liquidity Risk Analysis Margin Ana lysisReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios

Margin Ratio Return Ratio

Profit

Net Revenue

Profit

Invested Capital

Profitability analysis typically includes:

� Common -size Analysis (Revenue, Costs, Invested Capital)


� Common -size Analysis (Revenue, Costs, Invested Capital)

� Time series analysis (identification of trends)

� Comparison with the required rate of return => Value Added.

� Cross-sectional analysis (Benchmark with competitors’ performance)

Profit Margin Analysis


Profit margin ratios scales each item as a percenta ge of revenue:

RevenueNet

(i)Profit RatiosMargin Profit =

RevenueNet RatiosMargin Profit

Measures a firm’s ability to generate profit after consideration of all operating expenses

Provide a good idea of cost structure

Time series analysis & Cross-sectional analysis


Very useful to compare operating performance across firms

Profit Margin Analysis


Common-Size analysis of JIT’s revenue and operating expenses

Profit & expenses % of Net Revenue Year 12 Year 11

Net Revenue 100% 100%Net Revenue 100% 100%

Cost of sales 48,0% 46,0%

Gross Margin 52,0% 54,0%

Operating expenses 45,8% 49,2%

EBITDA Margin or Operating Margin 6,2% 4,8%

Depreciation & amortization 0,6% 0,6%

EBIT Margin 5,6% 4,2%

Net financial expenses 4,0% 2,6%

Pretax Income 1,6% 1,6%


Pretax Income 1,6% 1,6%

- Corporate income tax 0,5% 0,5%

Net Profit Margin 1,1% 1,1%

NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax) 4% 3%

Profit Margin Analysis Across Competitors


Example: EBIT Margin for four U.S. Airlines


Profit Margin Analysis and Corporate Strategy


Quick Check Question: compare operating performance of Hermès and Carrefour.

In 2012 Hermès Int. SA LVMH Carrefour SAIn 2012 Hermès Int. SA LVMH Carrefour SA

Operating Margin 32% 21% 5%

Differences in operating margins can result from corporate strategy

Net Revenue € 3 Billion € 28 Billion €76 Billion


Profit Margin by Industry


EBITDA margin in % of sales for leading listed Euro pean companies


Source: Pierre Vernimmen (2013), P.163 - Data from Exane BNP Paribas

The Scissors Effect


A scissors effect may occur for all kinds of reasons (intense competition, mismanagement, regulatory changes, etc.)

It may reflect the quality of the company’s strategic position in its market and its capacity to cope with a sudden increase in costs…


Return Analysis

Profitability and Liquidity Risk Analysis Margin AnalysisReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios

Allocation of the Wealth Created

Shareholders’

Fixed Assets

Shareholders’ Equity (20)

Net Financial Debt(80)

Working Capital

Capital invested inCapital Employed(100)

Operating

Wealth Created Interest paid to debtholders

Income paid to shareholders


Interest Expense (8)

Net Income(12)

Operating Profit

after Tax (20)

%20100

20Capital InvestedOn Return == %60

20

12EquityOn Return ==%10

80

8Debt ofCost ==

Operating Return: ROIC


Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) = Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

NOPATROIC =

Capital Invested

NOPATROIC =

Capital Working Assets Fixed

NOPAT

Debt Fin.Net Equity

NOPATROIC

+=

+=

Year 2 Year 1

Fixed Assets 121 81

Example: ROIC of JIT Computer Services


Fixed Assets 121 81

Opearting Working Capital 3 3

Capital Employed 124 84

NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax) 6,9 5,0

ROIC 5,6% 6,0%

Analyzing ROIC


Return on invested capital for Carlsberg

7,0%

8,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

Carlsberg’s ROIC


Is Carlsberg’s ROIC satisfactory?

Estimation of the Economic Value Added

Comparison with competitors and industry peers (benchmarking).

0,0%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Analyzing ROIC: Economic Value Added


Comparing ROIC and WACC provides an idea on EVA: va lue creation for capital providers

Employed Capital*WACC)-(ROICEVA =

)1(**%*% TrDebtrEquityWACC DE −+=


Fig. 13.3 (B&DM – FCF – p.392)

Analyzing ROIC: Economic Value Added


Return on invested capital for Carlsberg Versus WAC C

8,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0% WACC=7%


Carlsberg is only creating value for its shareholders and lenders in 2007

0,0%

1,0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Analyzing ROIC: Cross-Sectional Analysis


Return on invested capital for Carlsberg and Heinek en

20,0%

ROIC Carlsberg

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%

18,0%ROIC Carlsberg

ROIC Heineken


Carlsberg is only able to generate a ROIC that exceeds Heineken’s in 2008

Carlsberg’s level of profitability is generally below Heineken’s in the period examined

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Analyzing ROIC : Where Does Profitability Come From ?


ROIC does not explain whether profitability is driven by a better revenue and expense relation or an improved capital utilisation. It is necessary to decompose the ratio into:

NOPAT RevenueNet NOPAT

Employed Capital

NOPATROIC =

Employed Capital

RevenueNet *

RevenueNet

NOPATROIC =

Turnover Employed Capital*MarginProfit ROIC =

Capital Employed Turnover (also Asset Turnover)


Measures a firm’s effectiveness in using its assets invested in the operation

Year 2 Year 1NOPAT Margin 4% 3%

* Turnover rate of Capital employed 151% 211%= ROIC 5,6% 6,0%

Example: ROIC of JIT Computer Services

ROIC depends on Profit Margin and Asset turnover


Comparison of profit margin of Heineken and Carlsberg

Comparison of turnover rate for Heineken and Carlsberg

18,0%

NOPAT Carlsberg

140%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%NOPAT Carlsberg

NOPAT Heineken

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%Asset Turnover CarlsbergAsset Turnover Heineken


0,0%

2,0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0%

20%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ROIC depends on Profit Margin and Asset turnover


Profit margin, Asset turnover and business sector


Sales / Capital Employed

Source: Pierre Vernimmen (2013), P.228 - Data from Exane BNP Paribas

The Structure For Operating Profitability Analysis


Market growth

Market size

Market shareRevenue

Market share

Price

Administration

Amortisation and

depreciation

Non-current assets

Inventories

ReceivablesTurnover rate

Profit Margin

ROIC

Production

Marketing

Distribution

Revenue


Operating cash

Operating liabilities

Turnover rateInvested capital

EVA

WACC

Financial leverage

Creditors’ required rate of return

Investors’ required rate of return

Source: Thomas Plenborg and Christian Petersen (2012), p.94

Return On Equity: Financial Profitability


Return on equity measures owners’ accounting return on their investments in a company

IncomeNet ROE =

Equity

IncomeNet ROE =

Year 2 Year 1

Net Earnings 2,0 1,9

Year 2 Year 1

Total Shareholders' Equity 32,2 31,2

Example: ROE of JIT Computer Services


Year 2 Year 1

ROE (Return On Equity) 6,2% 6,1%

Return On Equity: Financial Profitability


Return on equity measures owners’ accounting return on their investments in a company

IncomeNet ROE =

Equity

IncomeNet ROE =

Very frequently totally misleading + Prone to ma nipulation

Book value meaningless


One period return meaningless

Financial Return cannot be judged independently of risk

E.g. ROE heavily influenced by leverage

Factors effecting ROE


Allocation of the Wealth Created

Shareholders’ Equity (20)

Fixed Assets

Equity (20)

Net Financial Debt(80)

Working Capital

Capital invested inCapital Employed(100)

Interest Expense Net IncomeOperating

Profit

Wealth Created Interest paid to debtholders

Income paid to shareholders


Interest Expense (8)

Net Income(12)

Profit after Tax

(20)

%20100

20Capital InvestedOn Return == %60

20

12EquityOn Return ==%10

80

8Debt ofCost ==

Operating Return (ROIC) Owners’ ReturnLeverage Effect

Return On Equity: The impact of financing on profit ability


The following factors affect the level and trend in ROE:

• Operating profitability • Net borrowing interest rate after tax • Net borrowing interest rate after tax • Financial leverage.

This can be shown by a relationship, which will always apply:

( )Equity

Debt Fin.Net *Debt ofCost Net - ROICROICROE +=

Effect LeverageROICROE +=


Equity

Debt Fin.Net

rate)Tax -(1*expenses Fin.Net Debt ofCost Net =



Example: 1 st case: No Tax, Cost of Debt = 5%

Cool Jazz Company

Hard Rock Company

Heavy Metal Company

Shareholders’ Equity 100 000 50 000 40 000Shareholders’ Equity 100 000 50 000 40 000

Net Financial Debt 0 50 000 60 000

Invested Capital 100 000 100 000 100 000

EBIT (or NOPAT) 10 000 10 000 10 000

Net Fin. expenses 0 2 500 3 000

Net Income

ROIC

Net Cost of Debt 0 % 5 % 5 %

10 000 7 500 7 000

10 % 10 % 10 %


ROIC – Net Cost of Debt +10% +5% +5%

* Financial Leverage 0 100% 150%

= Leverage Effect

ROE 10 % 15 % 17,5 %

If ROIC exceeds Net Cost of Debt, an increase in le verage is likely to improve ROE: positive leverage effect.

0% +5% +7.5%



If you can get cheap money, increase your leverage and boost your ROE

Cheap money (low cost of debt) is not a sufficient condition to increase


Cheap money (low cost of debt) is not a sufficient condition to increase leverage

The key question: what are you going to do with the borrowed money?

The value of a business depends primarily on the ca pacity of its assets to generate cash flows, and less on capital structu re choices



Example: 1 st case: No Tax, Cost of Debt = 15%

Cool Jazz Company

Hard Rock Company

Heavy Metal Company

Shareholders’ Equity 100 000 50 000 40 000Shareholders’ Equity 100 000 50 000 40 000

Net Financial Debt 0 50 000 60 000

Invested Capital 100 000 100 000 100 000

EBIT (or NOPAT) 10 000 10 000 10 000

Net Fin. expenses 0 7 500 9 000

Net Income

ROIC

Net Cost of Debt 0 % 15 % 15 %

10 000 2 500 1 000

10 % 10 % 10 %


ROIC – Net Cost of Debt +10% -5% -5%

* Financial Leverage 0 100% 150%

= Leverage Effect

ROE 10 % 5 % 2,5 %

If ROIC is lower than Net Cost of Debt, an increase in leverage is likely to destroy ROE: negative leverage effect.

0% -5% -7.5%



A lever can become a club


The impact of financial leverage cannot be analyzed independently of Risk

Analyzing ROE


Return On Equity for Carlsberg

14,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

Carlsberg’s ROE


Is Carlsberg’s ROE satisfactory?

Estimation of the Residual Income

Comparison with competitors and industry peers (benchmarking).

0,0%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Analyzing ROE: Residual Income = Value added for ow ners = Owners’ Economic Profit


Comparing ROE and re provides an idea on Residual Income : value creatio n for shareholders

Equity*)r-(ROEIncome Residual e= e

premiumrisk Market *β+= fE rr

Fahmi Ben Abdelkader © Financial Statement Analysis10/23/2013 10:37 AM 29Fig. 13.3 (B&DM – FCF – p.392)

Analyzing ROE: Residual Income = Value added for ow ners = Owners’ Economic Profit


Return On Equity for Carlsberg Versus Required Retu rn on Equity (Equity Cost of Capital)

14,0%

re=10%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

Carlsberg’s ROE


Carlsberg is only creating value for its shareholders in 2006 and 2007

0,0%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Analyzing ROE: Cross-Sectional Analysis

Return On Equity for Carlsberg and Heineken

30,0%

ROE Carlsberg

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

ROE Carlsberg

ROE Heineken


Carlsberg’s level of ROE was generally below Heineken’s in the period examined

A decomposition of ROE shows that the higher return in Heineken can be attributed to a higher ROIC .

0,0%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Return On Equity: Structure of a profitability anal ysis



Source: Thomas Plenborg and Christian Petersen (2012), p.94

Illiquidity Risk is a crucial subject


An analysis of liquidity risk is needed as lack of funds may:

Restrict management’s room for manoeuvre

Restrict management’s opportunities to exploit profitable investments

Force management to dispose of business units with a considerable discount

Increase financial costs

Lead to suspension of payments

Suspension of payments and bankruptcy influence a range of stakeholders:

Employees : Risk of losing job / lack of job security.

Fahmi Ben Abdelkader © Financial Statement Analysis

Employees : Risk of losing job / lack of job security.

Creditors: Potential loss on loans and missing future business opportunities

Suppliers: Potential loss on customer and missing future business opportunities

Customers: Risk of shortage of supply

Investors: Potential loss on investment and missing future business opportunities

10/23/2013 10:37 AM 33

Measuring Short-term illiquidity risk


Short-term liquidity is defined as a firm’s ability to pay all short term obligations

What is the likelihood that current assets cover current liabilities in the event of liquidation?

sLiabilitieCurrent

AssetsCurrent RatioCurrent =

sLiabilitieCurrent

sInventorie -AssetsCurrent RatioQuick =

sinvestment STsequivalentCash &Cash RatioCash

+=


sLiabilitieCurrent

sinvestment STsequivalentCash &Cash RatioCash

+=

sLiabilitieCurrent

Operations from FlowCash RatioDebt ST toCFO =

The larger the ratio, the greater the likelihood that the sale of current assets are able to cover current liabilities

10/23/2013 10:37 AM 34

Measuring Short-term illiquidity risk


The cash burn rate is one of the most conservative financial ratios used to measure short-term liquidity risk and is typically only used on companies with negative earnings.

The ratio measures how long a company is able to fund projected costs without any further cash contribution The ratio measures how long a company is able to fund projected costs without any further cash contribution from shareholders or creditors.

EBIT

sinvestment STsequivalentCash &Cash RatioBurn Cash

+=

The cash burn rate is typically used in businesses which do not yet have a proper level of earnings.


earnings.

Start-up companies, biotech companies and similar types of businesses are characterized by significant investments (cash outlays) and little or no earnings.

10/23/2013 10:37 AM 35

Measuring Long-term Illiquidity Risk (or Solvency R isk)


Long-term liquidity risk is defined as a firm’s ability to pay all long term obligations

Equity

Debt Fin.Net Leverage Financial =

Generally, a high financial leverage and a low

sLiabilitie TotalEquity

EquityRatioSolvency

+=

Expenses FinancialNet

EBITRatio CoverageInterest =

Expenses FinancialNet

Operations from FlowCash (Cash) Ratio CoverageInterest =

Equity Generally, a high financial leverage and a low solvency ratio indicate high long-term liquidity ri sk

How many times operating profit covers net financial expenses?


EBITDA

Debt Fin.Net EBITDA Debt to =

Operations from FlowCash

Debt Fin.Net CFO Debt to =

10/23/2013 10:37 AM 36

Time that would be needed to pay off all debt, ignoring the factors of interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Measuring Long-term Illiquidity Risk (or Solvency R isk)


Net Debt to EBITDA ratio for leading listed Europea n companies


Weaknesses of financial ratios measuring liquidity risk

Knowledge of a company's liquidity is important, as lack of liquidity may lead to loss of business opportunities and, in a worst case, suspension of payments

Margin AnalysisReturn Analysis: ROIC (or ROCE) and the Operating P rofitabilityReturn Analysis: ROE and the Financial Profitabilit y Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios

Profitability and Liquidity Risk Analysis

Weaknesses of liquidity ratiosWeaknesses of liquidity ratios

Based on historical accounting information and, thus, backward-looking

Book value of assets is almost meaningless

Capital structure ratios at market value should make more sense than at book values but are very volatile

Liquidity ratios can be easily manipulated if the company knows that it is being analyzed:


E.g. Interest or other financing costs can be shifted to the future

Bad liquidity ratios can be the result of good cash management

The Income Statement The Balance Sheet : An OverviewAssetsLiabilitiesShareholders’ Equity

1. When is it useful to define ROIC before and after tax, respectively?

2. A company experiences a drop in ROIC from 12% in year 1 to 5% in year 4. Provide potential explanations for the drop in ROIC of 7 percentage points.

Concept Check and Critical Thinking

Provide potential explanations for the drop in ROIC of 7 percentage points.

3. What is the appropriate benchmark for ROIC?

4. What actions can a management take to improve the profit margin?

5. What actions can the management take to improve the turnover rate of invested capital?

6. How does financial leverage affect the return to shareholders?


7. What is the appropriate benchmark for ROE?

8. What are the potential shortcomings of financial ratios measuring liquidity risk?

9. How can these shortcomings be addressed?

Documents

FBA FA Section7 Profitability Analysisfahmi.ba.free.fr/docs/Courses/2013 ESCP FA/fba_fa... · Financial Analysis Section 7. Profitability and illiquidity Risk Analysis Margin Analysis