Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CLIMACT sa www.climact.com | [email protected] | T: +32 10 235 431
Low carbon scenarios for Belgium in 2050 FCSD-CFDD-FRDO Pascal Vermeulen, Climact
Key messages
2
Context and objectives
Process and methodology
Key messages by sector
Next steps
Conclusion
Why it is important to look at 2050
3
Annual global GHG emissions (GtCO2-eq.)
Source: IPCC (2011)
Why it is important to look at 2050
4
• UNFCCC: objective to limit to 2°C maximum the rise in the global average temperature
• “Decides that developed countries should develop low-carbon development strategies or plans”
• EU target to reduce GHG emissions with 80% to 95% vs 1990
• A successful transition requires a clear direction and early action • Looking ahead as far as 2050 inevitably involves major uncertainties • Exploring a variety of pathways to 2050 help limit the risk of making costly
mistakes
• A low carbon transition has far reaching implications and involves many stakeholders at various levels – regional, national, global, local
• The approach allows bringing together much of the existing work on the topic
Existing work must be brought together and stakeholders involved
SOURCE: UNFCCC COP 16, DECC, Climact
Current policies need to be consistent with long term objectives
40 years is the required time frame to manage the risks and uncertainties
Key objectives of the project
5
Develop a set of alternative low carbon scenarios
Explore various implications, clarify the implementation ranges to be reached for the key indicators
Integrate various existing technologies and possible lifestyle changes
Identify main decision points/milestones
Large consultation process based on thorough literature review
One single way to reach the objectives
Not a cost optimization model
Interactions are not explicitly modelled
Detailed impact and implementation in each of the sectors
Further studies should complement our work: macro-economic implications, jobs, competitiveness
SOURCE: Climact
The study covers
The study does not cover
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
131142
Range of 2050 objectives
28
7
2010 1990
-0,4% -0,4% p.a.
-4,9% p.a.
-80 à 95%
Belgium needs to massively increase its yearly GHG reduction pace in order to reach 80-95% objectives in 2050
6 Source: Belgium GHG emissions inventory, Climact
Key messages
7
Context and objectives
Process and methodology
Key messages by sector
Next steps
Conclusion
Timeline and main phases
8
Jan 2012 May Jul Nov Jan 2013 Spring 2013
START • Literature
review • Experts
identification and briefing
EXPERTSWORKSHOPS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY SUPPLY • Transports • Buildings • Agriculture • Industry • Energy supply
BALANCED SCENARIOS • Develop scenarios • Assess GHG reduction • Assess implications
range
FINAL REPORT
Consultation Group
6 5 4
3 2 1 Adapt the DECC OPE2RA model to Belgian data and improve it
Test each sector with external experts
Bottom up study by sector of feasible GHG reductions
Workshops by sector with external experts
Discussions with international experts
Review conclusions with the steering and consultation
committees Federal and regional
administration
Industry
Trade Unions
Environmental organizations
Detail key implications for these scenarios
Define and model various scenarios
A stakeholders-based approach is used to develop the model and integrate the various opinions
9
Part intermittente faible(~40%) – CSC inclus
Part intermittente faible(~60%) – CSC exclus
DEM
AN
DE
ENER
GET
IQU
E et
EMIS
SIO
NS
OFFRE ENERGETIQUE ET CAPTURE D’EMISSIONS
Demande et émissions élevées
Demande et émissions moyennes
Demande et émissions faibles
Scénario E
Scénario A Scénario B
Scénario D Scénario C
5 scénarios de décarbonisation de 80 à 95%
SOURCE: Climact Academics
25%
18%
18%
8%
Agriculture and waste (incl. LULUCF)
Industry (combustion)
Power generation
20%
BuildingsIndustry (processes)
Transport
Others
1%
10%
100% = 131,4 MtCO2e
Many organizations and experts are involved
10
Interactions
Industry
Civil organizations
Academic experts
Regional organizations
Public organizations ▪ Project coordinated by the federal administration ▪ Project is followed by a “Steering committee” and a “Consultation group”
SOURCE: Climact
▪ Expert Working groups and specific consultations on key sectors
▪ International experts DECC (Department Energy and Climate Change, UK) ECF “2050 Roadmap”
▪ Consultation group
Academics Employers' organizations Trade Union Environmental NGOs Regions
2 6
We do not expect the members of the Consultation Group to fully endorse the results of the study.
3B-fibreglas D. Wertz AC-ANB Willy Verbeke ACV – CSC Philippe Cornélis AGC G. Vanmarcke Agoria Patrick Vandenbossche
Philippe Callewaert Aperam Rudy Lens Arcelor Gent Roland Mortier Architecture et Climat -UCL (Excused) Andre De Herde AWAC André Guns
Georges Liebecq Belgocontrol Liesbeth Peeters Benergie Luc Dedeyne Biogas-E Lieven Demolder Boerenbond Peter Van Bossuyt
Bart Vleeschouwers Bond Beter Leefmilieu Gillabel Jeroen
Jeroen Gillabel Mathias Bienstman Sara Van Dijck
Brick federation Mrs Aerts Bruxelles Mobilité-Mobiel Brussel Philippe Barette Building Performance Institute Europe (BPIE) B. Atanasiu Carmeuse M. Denys CeDuBo/DuWoBo To Simons CEPI Marco Mensink CERATEC Francis Defever Cluster Cap 2020 Bertrand Wart Cobelpa Laurent De Munck
Marc Bailli Cobelpa L. De Munck Confédération Construction Wallonie A. Argeles Confédération de la Construction J-P Liebaert CPDT/Lepur-ULG Pierre Paco
Sigrid Reiter CRA Centre wallon de Recherches agronomiques Michael Mathot DeLijn Pieter Claeys Departement Landbouw & Visserij Evelien Decuypere Direction générale de l’agriculture et de l’environnement Wallonne
Joseph Flaba
Edora Frank Gérard Essenscia Else Brouwers
Patrick Degand Tinne Schaerlaekens
Facilitateur Bois-Energie - Secteur public F. Flahaux FEBEM Werner Annaert FEBETRA Philippe Degraef FEBIAC Jean-Paul Heine Fed. Planning Bureau Dominique Gusbin Fedustria G. Colyn
Ingrid Hontis Guy de Muelenaere
Fevia Tom Quintelier Fevia An Nachtergaele FGTB – ABVV Guéric Bosmans FIV E. Butaye Fortea M. Calozet
S. Loiseau FUGEA (fédération éleveurs et agriculteurs) Xavier Delwart FWA Alain Masure Gembloux Bernard Bodson
Marc Aubinet GSV Luc Braet Heidelbergcement G. de Maere HIVA Miet Lamberts Holcim S. Codron IBGE/BIM Grégoire Clerfayt IEW Inter-environnement Wallonie Gaëlle Warnant ILVO Peiren Nico ILVO Peter Demeyer INFRABEL Pascale Heylen Innovatiesteunpunt Boerenbond Bart Vleeschouwers Inter Environnement Wallonie Noé Lecocq
Pierre Courbe Lionel Delvaux
IOK Jonathan De Witte Paul Macken
Knaufinsulation M. Pelzer KOMIMO Miguel Vertriest KU Leuven Erik Mathijs
Stef Proost KULeuven – Afdeling Architectuur, Stedenbouw en RO Frank de Troyer KVBG – ARGB Olivier Thibaut Lhoist Jean Marbehan LNE Tania van Mierlo Logisics in Wallonia Bernard Piette Natpro Maerckx Sophie NMBS Bart Wuyts ODE Francies Van Gijzeghem OSAR Architectenbureau Margo Annemans OVAM Ann Braekevelt
Nico Vanaken Passiefhuisplatform Erwin Mlecnik Petroleum federation Luk Deurinck PMC-BMP Johan Van Der Biest Provinciale Hogeschool Limburg Griet Verbeeck RW - Energie Monique Glineur Shift-N Philippe Vandenbroeck SPF Mobilité – FOD Mobiliteit Laurent Demilie STIB-MIVB Geoffroy de Wilde TEC Nadia Neven TML Griet De Ceuster Transport and env Jos Dings UGent Wim Soetaert Ulg Bernard Tychon
Christine Moureaux Univ. Antwerpen Bruno De Borger Univ. Gent Arnold Janssens
Frank Maes Pascal Boeckx
Univ. Libre Bruxelles Nicolas Rigo Valbiom Jean-François Gosse
Nora Pieret Val-I-Pac Johan Sneyers VEA Wina Roelens
Caroline Vermeulen Lieven Van Lieshout
Vidrala, Saint-Gobain C. Deniet VITO Ina De Vlieger
Nevens Frank Vlaams Instituut Logistiek Mark Coenen Vlaams verkeerscentrum René Grispen Vlaamse Bouwmeester Bart Van Steenwegen VMM Caroline de Geest Vrije Univ. Brussel Filip Descamps
Joeri Van Mierlo Nele Sergeant
WTCB – CSTC Xavier Loncour WWF Sam Vandenplas SPF-FOD Economie Christian Ferdinand Univ. Leuven Dirk Saelens Cabinet Wathelet Michel Degailler SPF - FOD Santé Caroline Thienpont
Many organizations and experts are involved
11
2 6
The set of input and levers is flexible, open and transparent It can be easily adapted based on new work
12 Source: Climact
-80 to -95% GHG emissions vs. 1990
3
and CCS
Level 4 Level 3 Level 2
4 ambition levels are defined for each lever
13 SOURCE: DECC, Climact
Level 1
• Current legal obligations
• No additional effort
• « Reference scenario »
• Moderate effort relatively easily achievable according to the majority of experts
• Significant effort requiring large changes, in terms of behaviours or investment requirements
• Maximum technical potential based on technical or physical constraints
Energy efficiency
Behaviour changes
Electrification
Energy mix
Electricity mix
Imports levels
Levers
3
and CCS
14
Demand 1 2 3 4 Supply 1 2 3 4
TRANSPORT
HOUSEHOLDS
BUSINESS
BIO-ENERGY
ELECTRICITY
SOURCE: DECC, Climact
A transparent interface to evaluate low carbon scenarios
Key messages
15
Context and objectives
Process and methodology
Key messages by sector
Next steps
Conclusion
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
131142
Range of 2050 objectives
28
7
2010 1990
-0,4% -0,4% p.a.
-4,9% p.a.
-80 à 95%
Belgium needs to massively increase its yearly GHG reduction pace in order to reach 80-95% objectives in 2050
16 Source: Belgium GHG emissions inventory, Climact
Belgian emissions in 2010 are relatively equally distributed
17 Source: Belgium GHG emissions inventory, Climact
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
▪ Emissions have gone down by ~8%
▪ The industry has reduced its combustion emissions by 28%, and its process emissions by 15%
▪ Emissions in both transport and buildings have grown significantly by 18% since 1990
145
131
90
Buildings
05 00
Others
95
Energy industries
-8%
10
Agriculture & waste
Transport
Industry (combustion)
142 143
Industry (processes)
150
Delta 90-10 %
-12%
-28%
+18%
-15%
+18%
-27%
-8%
Defining energy demand Transport Sector - key messages of workshop
Structurally mitigating demand through behavioural changes will be key to reduce the extent and cost of technical changes
Efficiency improvements of the vehicles and electrification of road transport will have to play a significant role to reach the ambitious GHG emission reductions
Several important means to mitigate transport demand have implications for policies outside of the transport system (e.g. urban planning) and need interregional collaboration.
18
24
2010 2050 range based on technical levers
-70 to -95%
WORK IN PROGRESS
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
WORK IN PROGRESS
Defining energy demand Building Sector - key messages of workshop
Demography is one of the main drivers for the energy demand of the residential sector.
Existing stock & new buildings energy demand should be addressed together Ambitious performance standards for new
buildings
Increase renovation rate and post-renovation performance
Smart urban planning can reduce emissions in other sectors as well (eg. transport)
Appropriate technologies (electrification) will have to be selected to provide the energy inside residential and tertiary buildings.
19
WORK IN PROGRESS
33
2050 range based on technical levers
2010
-65 to -95%
WORK IN PROGRESS
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
Defining energy demand Agriculture Sector - key messages of workshop
Agriculture covers ~50% of total land, and is responsible for almost 10% of Belgian emissions
3 key emission mechanisms : livestock, fertilizer, agricultural soils
Various efforts can lead to significant reductions across these segments, reversing a potential increase in emissions
Behavioral change (reducing meat consumption) has a significant impact.
20
WORK IN PROGRESS
10
2050 range based on technical levers
2010
WORK IN PROGRESS
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
-10 to -40%
Defining energy demand Industry sectors - key messages of several workshops
Demand: modelled in 18 sub-industries
Numerous reduction actions are assessed in each sub-industry
Product mix changes
Energy efficiency
Process changes
Fuel switches
Carbon capture and storage
International competition is very strong in some sectors
Risk of leakage (direct and indirect) must be recognized and properly addressed
Within the EU: level-playing field with EU ETS
21
WORK IN PROGRESS
Source: 18 sub-industries (Oil & gas, Oxygen steel, Electric steel, Olefins, Ammonia & Hydrogen, Chlorine, Other chemical ETS activities, Other chemical non-ETS activities, N2O emissions, Paper, Food, Ceramics, Non-ferrous metals, Cement, Lime, Flat glass, Hollow glass, Other glass)
42
2050 range based on technical levers
2010
-55 to -90%
WORK IN PROGRESS
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
Based on trajectory 2
Defining energy supply Electricity sector1: Key messages of workshop
22 1 The rest of the energy sector is covered in the industry (refineries)
WORK IN PROGRESS
21
2050 range based on technical levers
2010
WORK IN PROGRESS
GHG emissions in Belgium, MtCO2e per year
Energy efficiency is the first option
The potential for Renewable Energy Supply (RES) is significant
Large amount of flexibility in various parts of the energy system is needed
Non-intermittent sources such as importing sustainable biomass
Geothermal
Increasing net imports of low carbon electricity
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is currently researched as a low carbon alternative but its development is still very uncertain.
All ranges are technically possible depending on supply mix and back-up
Up to ~100%
3 Massive electrification in Transport and Buildings is expected
7 Imports of which Sustainable Biomass will allow to manage flexibility of energy mix.
6 There is a significant RES potential. Only part of the technical RES potential could be necessary
Carbon Capture and Storage could be required for (a few) industrial sectors 5
1 Energy demand in transport, heating and lighting could be reduced through behavioral changes while maintaining comfort levels
2 Energy efficiency in Transport and Buildings is key to achieve low carbon targets
Energy efficiency and process improvements will allow further emission reduction in industrial sectors. International competition needs to be taken into account 4
23
Workshops energy supply and demand: preliminary messages
Key messages
24
Context and objectives
Process and methodology
Key messages by sector
Next steps
Conclusion
Balanced scenarios will be built with the stakeholders
25 Source: Climact
Other scenarios
Scenario C
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario D Scenario E
Reference scenario
ENER
GY
DEM
AN
D a
nd
EM
ISSI
ON
S
ENERGY SUPPLY AND EMISSIONS
High demand and emissions Average demand and emissions Low demand and emissions
Low RES High RES
Illustrative Walloon example
GHG reductions, Other environmental impacts
will be qualitative assessed: resources efficiency and sustainability, biodiversity, landscape, water, …
26
Level of energy independence and security
Stability of the energy system
…
Cost of the transition compared to reference (capex, opex, energy expenditures)
Some impacts on the quality of life
…
SOURCE: ECF and Climact
Environment
Socio-economic
Key criteria of the low
carbon transition
Energy security and
technological opportunities
Key implications are tested along 3 main dimensions
27
Capital investments
Fuel costs Operations and Maintenance
Externalities
Total costs
Structure of the cost modeling to test scenarios
SOURCE: Climact 28
Scenarios will identify potential ranges for key indicators Illustrative
Walloon example
Key messages
29
Context and objectives
Process and methodology
Key messages by sector
Next steps
Conclusion
Conclusion 1. A shared LT vision should be determined
2. All actors have a constructive role to play
3. Various low carbon pathways with different options/levers/technology mixes are available
4. Building a low-carbon society requires a paradigm shift
Behaviour (e.g. transport modal switch, heating in buildings)
Investments in efficiency and processes
Switches in energy supply
5. Reducing energy demand is imperative. It does not necessarily imply reduction in comfort
6. Financing is key: up front investment will be balanced by later savings
7. “Belgium: growing well-being and low carbon leadership”. It creates opportunities when risks are well addressed
8. New technology could accelerate the transition
Low carbon innovation and R&D should be strengthened
Not limited to technology: also societal organization.
30
WORK IN PROGRESS
CLIMACT sa www.climact.com | [email protected] | T: +32 10 235 431
Low carbon scenarios for Belgium in 2050 FCSD-CFDD-FRDO Pascal Vermeulen, Climact
