Feb.1 (P)/ Feb.2 (W) Warm Up1. Empty right side of folder and put your papers in the

correct section in your binder

2. You have a $1, a $5, a $10 and a $20 in your left pocket. You have two $10’s and two $20’s in your right pocket. You pick a bill randomly from each pocket and return it each time.

Make a rug showing all possible sums you will have in your hand (outcomes) and find the probability of each. (One outcome for this situation is the sum of one bill chosen from your left pocket and one bill chosen from your right pocket)

You have 10 minutes to complete ths warm-up.

Instructional Objective

Students will be able to find the average amount won or lost per turn in different situations.

Agenda- Feb 1 (P)/ Feb 2 (W)Warm up

Announcements

Submit POW

Pointed Rugs, pg. 110 debrief

Mia’s Cards, pg. 113

One-and-One, pg. 115

A 60% Solution, pg. 116

EXIT QUIZ

Homework

DUE NEXT CLASS-

pg. 157 Pointed Rugs Expectations

Due today: pg. 83, POW- submit in folder

MISSING ASSIGNMENTS due Feb. 3, 4

Homework due on or before Jan. 27 will not be accepted after this date

You must make an appt to submit this work

pg. 110 Pointed Rugs

1. Find your probabilities for your rug from “Rug Games” in your class work.

2. Read pg. 110.

3. Decide which color is best to bet on to maximize your points in the long run

4. Decide on a number of games to play then FIND the total points you would win for each color for your number of games.

pg. 110 debrief

Groups present their work.

Questions:

1. Do some numbers of games work better than others?

2. What numbers are easier to work with?

KEEP “Pointed Rugs” – do not submit

you can use it to help you do your HW

BASIC STEPS to finding expected value:

Expected Value is the average gain or lost per turn in the long run

1. Find the total # of possible outcomes.

2. Find the probabilities.

3. Decide on a number of turns or games.

4. Determine how much you gain or lose.

5. Expected value = total gain or lost DIVIDED by # of turns.Remember, your chances come close to theoretical probability if you

play a lot of games!

 

pg. 113 Mia’s CardsCard basics:

52 cards in a deck

4 “suits”:

hearts, spades, clubs and diamonds

13 cards in each “suit” are:

Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2

DO PAGE 113, 1 and 2 with your group

Be ready to present your results

You have 10 minutes to complete this activity.

pg. 113 Mia’s cards debrief

Does an expected value an exected value of 6.25 points per turn mean that Mia will get 6.25 points each time she draws a card?

One-and-One SituationIn basketball, when a player is fouled,

they get to take a “free throw”.

One-and-One Situation:

Miss first shot ---------------0 points, no 2nd shot

Hit first shot----1 pt and chance for another

Hit 2nd shot-----add another 1 pt.

so there are THREE possibilities:

Miss first shot- 0 pts. and you are done

Hit first shot/ miss 2nd- 1 pt

Hit first show and hit 2nd – 2 pts.

One-and-One, pg. 115A Sixty % Solution, pg. 116

Read pg. 115 together. Write your prediction in your class work!

Look at pg. 116-

why a simulation? how many cubes?

SIMULATION: an imitation of something real

Do simulation working with a partner.

Answer questions 2 – 4 in your class work.

60% average free throw shooter

what does this mean?

In 100 shots, how many does she hit on average? miss?

In 10 shots, how many does she hit on average? miss?

A 60% Solution, pg. 116Simulation- play 40 times

1. Shake the bag and pull out a cube.

2. If the cube is “yellow”, the simulation is over.

Write a “0” for your score.

3. If the cube is “blue”, put the cube back and draw again.

If the 2nd cube is “yellow”, write “1” for the score (you made 1 shot but missed the second).

If the 2nd cube is “blue”, write “2” for the score (you made both shots)

4.TALLY YOUR number of 0’s, 1’s and 2’s

A Sixty % Solution- debrief1. Compile class data

2. In a one-and-one situation, how many points is Terry most likely to score- 0, 1 or 2?

3. What is the difference between observed results and theoretical analysis?

4. What is your average score? (total points divided by number of “situations”)

5. Do you think that the simulation is a good method for analyzing the situation?

EXIT QUIZSituation: Mia will earn 10 points if she

randomly draws a heart from a well shuffled stack of cards. She gets no points if she draws a club, spade or diamond. She does this over and over.

Question: If she plays 52 times (randomly selects a card then returns it), find the average number of points she will win per turn.

(YOU MAY USE YOUR NOTES)