February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma

F E B R U A R Y 1 5 , 2 0 1 3 | B O S T O N , M A

Stephen J. RourkeV I C E P R E S I D E N T , S Y S T E M P L A N N I N G

Restructuring Roundtable

Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast

2

About ISO New England

• Not-for-profit corporation– Created in 1997 to oversee New

England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

• Regional Transmission Organization– Independent of companies doing

business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets

• Major responsibilities– Maintain reliable operation of the

electric grid– Administer wholesale electricity

markets– Plan for future system needs

ENERGY-EFFICIENCY (EE) FORECASTBackground

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000

RSP12 RSP12-FCM

Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand10 Years Out

• Baseline forecast developed with:– State and regional

economic forecasts– 40 years of

New England weather history

– Other factors:• US Dept of Energy

projections of average retail prices

• New EE standards for household appliances

+0.9%Per year

Annual Energy Consumption Forecast 2012-2021 (gigawatt-hours)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

RSP12 RSP12-FCM

Peak Demand Forecast 2012-2021 (megawatts)

+1.5%per year

5

Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New EnglandRecent state EE spending and electric energy savings, 2009-2011

• Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B– Over $500 million spent in 2011

• Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh– About 1,580 GWh of electricity

savings in 2011

• Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW– Average annual summer peak

demand reduction: 183 MW

$1.4B spent

3,905 GWh

(energy saved)

549 MW (peak

reduced)

6

EE in Forward Capacity Market• Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources

to be available three years in the future

• EE measures participate alongside generation– FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE

• 2012 auction procured resources obligated for 2015-2016– 33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed

• ~1,500 MW is EE• EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008

Pre-SMD

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May 2010

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

Capacity(MW)

Energy efficiency

Active Real- Time Demand-response

Emergency Generation

7

Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012

• Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures

• ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon (2016-2022)

• Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent– Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)

8

EE Forecast Model General Assumptions

• Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model – Sources of EE funding include:

• System Benefits Charges• Forward Capacity Market• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative• Other

• Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period

• Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states

2013 ENERGY-EFFICIENCY FORECASTRegional Results

10

Summary of 2013 EE Forecast

• Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results

• Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region – Reductions in energy use in VT and RI

• Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region

• Program performance changes from 2012 forecast– Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in

energy reductions– Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand

reductions from equivalent energy reductions

• Results vary by state

11

Regional EE Forecast Results(2016 to 2022)

• Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion

• Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast– Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW– Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW– In VT, forecasted peak demand declines

• Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast– Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh– Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh– RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption

12

Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast DataGWh Savings

Sum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA2016 1,594 104 60 105 246 161 919

2017 1,494 97 57 97 232 150 861

2018 1,399 90 54 91 218 140 806

2019 1,309 84 51 84 204 131 754

2020 1,224 77 48 78 192 122 706

2021 1,144 71 46 73 180 114 660

2022 1,069 65 43 68 169 106 618

Total 9,233 588 359 596 1,441 924 5,324

Average 1,319 84 51 85 206 132 761

MW SavingsSum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA

2016 227 12 10 15 31 26 133

2017 213 11 9 14 29 24 124

2018 199 10 9 13 27 23 116

2019 186 10 8 12 26 21 109

2020 174 9 8 12 24 20 102

2021 163 8 8 11 23 18 95

2022 152 7 7 10 21 17 89

Total 1314 67 59 87 181 149 768

Average 188 10 8 12 26 21 110

13

New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000

RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF

New England: Annual Energy (GWh)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000


New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW)

14

EE Measures Focus on Lighting

NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

100.00

2013 EEF % of Annual Energy by Measure for 2011

OtherCoolingCustomEducationRefrigerationProcessHVACLightingRESLighting LILightingC&I

15

New England Winter Peaks Trending Down1/

3/19

001/

3/19

021/

3/19

041/

3/19

061/

3/19

081/

3/19

101/

3/19

121/

3/19

141/

3/19

161/

3/19

181/

3/19

201/

3/19

221/

3/19

241/

3/19

261/

3/19

281/

3/19

301/

3/19

321/

3/19

341/

3/19

361/

3/19

381/

3/19

401/

3/19

421/

3/19

441/

3/19

461/

3/19

481/

3/19

501/

3/19

521/

3/19

541/

3/19

561/

3/19

581/

3/19

601/

3/19

621/

3/19

641/

3/19

661/

3/19

681/

3/19

701/

3/19

721/

3/19

741/

3/19

761/

3/19

781/

3/19

801/

3/19

821/

3/19

841/

3/19

861/

3/19

881/

3/19

901/

3/19

921/

3/19

941/

3/19

961/

3/19

981/

3/20

001/

3/20

021/

3/20

041/

3/20

061/

3/20

081/

3/20

101/

3/20

12

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

ISO-NE Winter Weekday Daily Peaks 2003/2004 to 2012/2013 (MW)Cumulative Daily Average Peak Drops Over 700 MW

Daily Peak Cumulative Average

16

Implications to the Power System

• Timing of necessary transmission upgrades

• Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts

• Declining load factor; minimum load issues

• Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables – Will this be our system?

17

Conclusions

• States continue to make large investments in EE

• ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes

• EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand

• VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred

• For more information see www.iso-ne.com/eefwg

http://www.iso-ne.com/eefwg

18

ENERGY-EFFICIENCY FORECASTState-by-State Results

20

Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers

• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $337.7 million– Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh

• Annual average energy saved: 336.5 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 127 MW

• Annual average: 42 MW

• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $806 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh

• Annual average: 206 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW


• CT program administrators:– CT Light & Power: http://www.cl-p.com/Home – United Illuminating Co.: https://www.uinet.com/

http://www.cl-p.com/Home

https://www.uinet.com/

21

Connecticut Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7500

7700

7900

8100

8300

8500

8700

8900

CT Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

CT Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


22

Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers

• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $53.4 million– Total energy saved: 282 GWh

• Annual average: 94 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 32 MW


• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: – Total spending: $202.7 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh

• Annual average: 84 GWh – Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW


• ME Program Administrators:– Efficiency Maine: http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about– Maine Public Service Commission:

http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml

http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about

http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml

23

Maine Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

ME Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

ME Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


24

Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:

– Total spending: $729.3 million– Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh

• Annual average: 609.3 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 264 MW


• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022– Total spending: $3.5 billion– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh



• MA program administrators:– Cape Light Compact: http://www.capelightcompact.org/ – Fitchburg Electric:

http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/– Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.): https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub– NSTAR: http://www.nstar.com/residential/ – Western Mass. Electric Co.: http://www.wmeco.com/

http://www.capelightcompact.org/

http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http://www.unitil.com/

https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

http://www.nstar.com/residential/

http://www.wmeco.com/

25

Massachusetts Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13000

14000

15000

16000

MA Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

70000

72000

MA Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


26

New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:

– Total spending: $58.6 million– Total energy saved: 191.4 GWh



• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: – Total spending: $183.1 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh



• NH program administrators:– Public Service of New Hampshire: http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx – Unitil:

http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ – Granite State Electric Co.: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx

http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http://www.unitil.com/


27

New Hampshire Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

NH Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

NH Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


28

Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers

• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: – Total spending: $90.2 million– Total energy saved: 258.8 GWh



• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $538.5 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh



• RI program administrator:– Narragansett Electric Co.:



29

Rhode Island Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

RI Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7900

8200

8500

8800

9100

9400

9700

RI Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


30

Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers

• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $102.6 million– Total energy saved: 317 GWh

• Annual average: 105.6 GWh– Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW


• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $321.3 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh



• VT program administrators:– Efficiency Vermont: http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx– Burlington Electric:

https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/page.php?pid=62&name=ee_incentives

http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx



31

Vermont Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1000

1100

1200

1300

VT Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5600

5900

6200

6500

6800

7100

VT Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)


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February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma