Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Looking for extreme events in Switzerland: What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection?

Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP

Looking for extreme events in Switzerland:What role for risk analysis in critical

infrastructure protection?

Dr. Stefan Bremstefan.brem[at]babs.admin.chHead Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCPFed. Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport

ETH Risk Center WorkshopSwiss Re, October 26, 2012

2 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP

Katarisk, 2003

Looking for extreme events in …

Basel, 1356

Chile, 2010


Risk valuation

Monetary termsof statistical damage values

(marginal costs)

Weightingby consideration of

aversion against large-scale incidents

➎ ➏

Risk analysis

Statistics ofincidents

Description of scenarios

Calculation of statistical damage

values

Check of plausibility using statistics

Plotting of cumulative

frequency curves

➊ ➋

➌➍

Comparative overview

Katarisk: Methodology


Agenda

• Concept of Critical InfrastructureProtection (CIP) in Switzerland

• Swiss CIP Programme• National CIP Strategy• Identification of CI Objects• Risk Assessment and CIP• Conclusion and Discussion


CIP concept in Switzerland

RIS

KR

ISK

NATURAL

HAZARDS

TECHNICAL HAZARDS

SOC

IETA

L

HA

ZAR

DS

PR

EV

EN

TIO

N

PREPARATION

INTERVENTION

RECONDITION

RE

CO

N-

ST

RU

CT

ION

Public Administration

Industry

Energy

Waste Disposal

Financial Services

Health

ICT

Water and Food

Public Safety

Transport

Preventing breakdowns

Reducing damages


Mandate by the Federal Council • Implementation of the national CIP strategy 2012

Role of the Federal Office for Civil Protection Chairing the CIP Working Group Coordination of the activities based

on the national strategy

Aim and purpose of the CIP Programme• Development of uniform approach• Creation of joint basic documents• Facilitation of dialogue and collaboration• Protection of the population and its livelihood (Art. 2, CPCD Law)

CIP Programme in Switzerland


National CIP Strategy 2012

Strategic Goal

Basic Principles• Comprehensive risk-based approach• Proportionality • Responsibility of the actors• Public-private partnership

The national CP strategy aims at improving the resiliency of critical infrastructures in Switzerland. It ensures a coordinated and

unified approach of all actors involved.


Measures of the National CIP Strategy

• Improve the general framework of the cross-sectoral collaboration

• Improve the CI’s resiliency• Key points of the strategy

Identification and compilation of CI objects (CI-Inventory)

Establishment of cross-sectoral platforms Improving information exchange (incl. early

warning) Handling of CI failures (federal support)

• CIP as a permanent process (inventory, comprehensive protection concepts, risk dialogue, etc.)


Failure of a nationalcritical infrastructureFailure of a regional

critical infrastructure

Inventory of Critical Infrastructure Objects

• Aim: Inventory of Swiss Critical Infrastructure objects Contribution to the provision of important goods and

services and / or hazard potential

• Purpose: Basis for planning and prioritisation in risk and disaster management Confederation, Cantons, CI operators

• CI Inventory replaces Catalogue to Ensure Basic Needs (previously operated by the military)

• Extension in terms of CI sectors, operators, threat and measure spectrum

• Identification of CI objects uses standardised process• Method elaborated and approved by CIP WG• Committees of relevant actors on national level


Prioritisation process

1) Creation of a function structure

2) Determination of relevant object groups

3) Definition of threshold levels

4) Compilation and evaluation of CI objects

a) Output potential

b) Hazard potential

5) Completion with cantonal objects

Swiss approach is similar / compatible with the EU approach Focus lies on national importance rather

than on cross-border effects CIP Inventory considers international aspects

In every CI

subsector


Database CI Inventory and Object Files

Dummy version


Risk Assessment and CIPObjectives and purpose

• Multi- (integrated) risk analysis to prioritise hazards (country risk assessment)

• Integrate know-how to increase risk awareness (e.g. dependencies/cascades)

• Elaborate foundations for further analyses, (preparedness) planning, training and information


Methodology to assess the hazards

• Risk = Impact x Frequency/Probability

• Impact (damage) is described by 13 indicators

• Assessment based on the scenario of the risk files

• Expert-Delphi (workshops)

Impact

Freq/ProbabExpert groups

Ass

ess

me

nt

Aggregation of Impact

Indicators of the damage Marginal costs


Workshops

Proof of concept, December 2011 • Validation of methodology with a sample of risk files

(inter alia earthquake, drought, power blackout, animal disease)

• Participants primarily with methodological expertise (academia, insurance, federal, cantonal and communal authorities, etc.)

Assessment workshops of the scenarios• 13 workshops between May and August 2012

• Participants depending on the hazard from federal, cantonal and communal authorities (intel, police, health, etc.), academia, CI operators (energy, transportation, IT, finance, etc.), etc.

• Validation by (re)insurance representatives

• In total, some 70 experts involved in assessment


Risk files and scenario

Risk files

Systematic structure of the risk files• Definition / general info• Similar incidents• Driving factors• Dependencies • Scenario

• Description• Impacts

• Legal foundation and references

• Scenario as reference for the assessment of impact and likelihood.

• Scenario in risk file is one of many possible scenarios(serious / major / extreme).

• Scenario is no prediction / forecast.• Scenarios help to anticipate possible

impacts to get better prepared.


Selected hazards for assessment in 2012

- Attack with dirty bomb- Attack with sarin- Accident in a chemical plant- Drought- Mass migration of refugees (Kosovo 1999)- Cyber attack- Power blackout- Animal disease- Road accident with dangerous goods - Storm, inland flooding, earthquake- Pandemic

- Additional 6 workshops in the context of the revision of the national CBRN and natural hazard reference scenarios


To assess the damage: 13 indicators Description of consequences is based on the Swiss Federal Constitution:

Area of damage

Sub-area Indicator

PopulationLife and Health

B1 – Casualty

B2 – Person injured or sick

Help in emergency B3 – Person in need of support

Environment Agricultural area + forest U1 – Damaged area

EconomyWealth W1 – Damage on property and assets

Economic productivityW2 – Reduction of economic productivity

Society

Provision of vital goods and services

G1 – Disruption of provision

Basic rights G2 – Restrictions on basic rights

Law and order G3 – Limitations of law and order

Image of and trust in institutionsG4 – Reduction of good image

G5 – Reduction of trust

Territorial control G6 – Loss of territorial control

Cultural goods G7 – Damage or loss of cultural goods


F- Class

Likelihood(in 10 years)

1 x in . . . years

Frequency(1/year)

F 8 > 30 % < 30 > 3*10-2

F 7 10 - 30 % 30 - 100 3*10-2 - 10-2

F 6 3 - 10 % 100 - 300 10-2 - 3*10-3

F 5 1 - 3 % 300 - 1'000 3*10-3 - 10-3

F 4 0.3 - 1 % 1'000 - 3'000 10-3 - 3*10-4

F 3 0.1 - 0.3 % 3'000 - 10'000 3*10-4 - 10-4

F 2 0.03 - 0.1 % 10‘000 - 30'000 10-4 - 3*10-5

F 1 < 0.03% > 30'000 < 3*10-5

Estimation of Likelihood / Probability / Frequency

≈ ≈


Selection of first results: Natural hazards

Earthquake

Inland Flooding


Selection of first results: technical and societal hazards

Pandemic

Power blackout


Figure: Exemplary Riskmatrix

Comparative Analysis


Available products (so far in German only...)


Conclusion and outlook

• Increasing importance of CIP• The aim is not absolute security,

but optimized security However, extreme events should be considered

in the preparedness and continuity planning• Value added of comprehensive approach• Resources are increasingly scarce

Prioritisation necessary Consideration of residual risk (extreme events!)

• Cross-sector cooperation and coordination become more and more important Cross-country cooperation and coordination as well


Contact information

Dr. Stefan BremHead of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection

Monbijoustrasse 51A, 3003 BernTel +41 31 322 51 37Fax +41 31 324 87 89stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.chwww.civilprotection.ch

Risks Switzerland: www.risk-ch.chKATAPLAN: www.kataplan.chCIP: www.infraprotection.ch

http://www.infraprotection.ch/



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Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Looking for extreme events in Switzerland: What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection?