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Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook
Matt HourihanAugust 7, 2013for the AAEA, C-FARE and the USDA Economist Group
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars
ARRA Funding
All Other
USDA
NSF
NASA
DOE
NIH
DOD
Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Life Sciences / GDP
Physical Sciences/GDP
Engineering / GDP
EnvironmentalSciences / GDP
Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP
Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2012
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
0.16%
0.18% Bio Sciences / GDP
Environmental Bio /GDP
Agricultural / GDP
Medical / GDP
Other Life Science /GDP
Federal Funds For Life Sciences asPercent of GDP, FY 1978-2010
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-9.5%-6.8%-6.6%-6.6%-6.4%-5.2%-5.0%-4.6%-4.5%-4.5%-4.2%-4.0%-3.8%-2.5%
5.5%60.8%
-6.5%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Other DODTransportation
NASAAgriculture
EPANIH
DOE ScienceDOD S&T
US Geological SurveyDOE Energy Programs
Other HHSNSF
DOE AtomicsVA
NISTDHS
TOTAL
Estimated FY 2013 R&D: Appropriations and Sequester Outcomes
percent change from FY 2012
Source: AAAS estimates based on agency R&D data and budget documents, appropriations documents, and OMB sequester analyses.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Estimated FY 2013 R&D Funding
Agency / Dept
Nominal Cut from FY12
Nominal Percentage Cut from FY12
Resulting Budget On Par With…
Total R&D $9.3 billion -6.5% 2002
Defense S&T $619 million -4.6% 2002
NIH $1.6 billion -5.2% 2002
Energy* $479 million -4.4% 2001
NSF $227 million -4.0% 2010
NASA $749 million -6.6% Late 1980s?
Agriculture $154 million -6.6% 1998
*Includes Office of Science, Energy Programs, and NNSA
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities Innovation / Science
Clear shifts from D to R (especially use-inspired + applied), and from Defense to Nondefense
COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)
Advanced manufacturing (NIST + elsewhere)
Clean Energy
Homeland Security (Biodefense facility)
Rolling back sequestration Every agency would receive major increases above FY13
post-sequester levels
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
FY 2014 R&D - USDA $2.5B for R&D (+8.2%)
Boosts for intramural and extramural alike ARS: +15.8% from FY12
Bulk of increase: Southeast Poultry Disease Research Lab
Research programs: +2.3%
NIFA: +6.1% (not including Biomass R&D)
Agriculture and Food Research Initiative: $383m (+45%)
• Land and water resources, obesity, climate adaptation, safety and sustainability, etc
ERS, Forest Service R&D: at or below inflation
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-2.9%-11.1%
-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%
2.3%4.2%5.4%
10.0%10.8%
21.0%23.7%
44.6%181.7%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
TOTALDOD Other
DOD S&TEPAVA
NIHDOT
NASADOE Science
USDANSF
Other HHSDOE Defense
NISTNOAA
DOE EnergyDHS
R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-14.8%
-8.2%
-7.8%
-7.3%
20.2%
66.5%
88.4%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Defense Activities
Agriculture
Health (NIH)
Environment Agencies
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Commerce (NIST)
Applied Energy Programs
R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars
Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%ARS
ERS
NIFA (previouslyCSREES)
Forest Service
Trends in USDA R&D Budgets, FY 2004-2014FY 2004 as base year
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Research and Development series. FY 2013 figure is an estimate. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Congress So Far Two budgets:
Pre-sequester: President’s Request and Senate
$1.058 trillion
Post-Sequester: House (and current law)
$967 billion
R&D funding decisions so far (mostly) reflect these differences
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Congress So Far (Cont) Areas of (rough) agreement:
Defense (including DOE), Homeland Security, planetary science, Veterans-related R&D, STEM reorganization
Areas of (rough) disagreement general support but divergent funding: NSF, NIST, NASA
exploration systems and technology, DOE Office of Science
Clearly different priorities: clean energy R&D, natural resources and environmental science
Unknown: NIH
USDA: Divergent, but not getting cut in House like other programs
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
ARS Request Current Approps
Ag Research Service R&Dmillions of constant FY 2013 dollars
Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. FY 2011 does not include $230 million rescission of ARS budget authority. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Other NIFA AFRI
Other NIFA-Request AFRI - Request
Other NIFA - Approps AFRI - Approps
Nat'l Institute of Food and Ag R&Dmillions of constant FY 2013 dollars
Formerly CSREES. Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Looking Ahead Congress now on recess and the clock is ticking
4 bills through House, none through Senate
Big question still remains: how do fit a $1.06 trillion budget into a $967 billion dollar hole? Senate: make the hole bigger
House: make the budget smaller
Almost certainly headed for a CR
Debt ceiling