Upload
sarila
View
32
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Fiber-to-the-Home Council North America. North American FTTH Deployment Update. Presented by: Michael C. Render. Vendor information and interviews (nearly all). Provider information and detailed interviews (over 1/3). Consumer input (initial 100K panel). Current FTTH Status. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:Michael C. Render
North American FTTH Deployment Update
Vendor information and interviews (nearly all)
Provider information anddetailed interviews (over 1/3)
Consumer input(initial 100K panel)
Current FTTH StatusCurrent FTTH Status
970,000
15,170,900
13,825,000
11,763,000
9,552,300
8,003,000
6,099,000
4,089,0002,696,846
19,400 72,100 180,3001,619,500
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Sep-0
1
Mar
-02
Sep-0
2
Mar
-03
Sep-0
3
Mar
-04
Sep-0
4
Mar
-05
Sep-0
5
Mar
-06
Sep-0
6
Mar
-07
Sep-0
7
Mar
-08
Sep-0
8
Mar
-09
FTTH Homes Passed Cumulative – North America
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
10,082,065
13,875,600
12,369,000
413,221
7,996,400
6,643,000
5,079,999
3,218,600
1,754,300
19,400 72,100 180,300 829,700
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
FTTH Homes Marketed
Cumulative – North America
FTTH Homes Connected Cumulative – North America
3,760,000
4,422,000
2,912,500
322,700
2,142,000
1,478,597
1,011,000
671,000
213,000146,50064,70022,5005,500
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
FTTH PenetrationCumulative – United States
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Passed
Connected
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
FTTH Video Homes Connected (Cumulative – North America)
1,641,000
2,195,000
2,654,300
110,000
1,054,000
611,400
408,800260,900101,40087,90037,5009,6751,925
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000
3,000,000
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
Overall Take-Rate For FTTH
(Cumulative – North America)
28.8%
31.8%
30.4%
26.8%22.3%
19.9%20.8%
35.4%
18.4%
26.0%
41.3%
35.9%
29.0%31.2%
34.5%
28.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
RVALLC 2007Note: Percent of all homes-marketed taking something over fiber..
RVALLC 2009
52.4%
52.6%51.9%51.5%
51.8%52.4%
51.0%
43.7%
48.2%47.4%
41.3%
35.9%
29.0%31.2%
34.5%
28.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Overall Take-Rate For FTTH Non RBOCCumulative – North America By Year
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
RBOC Take-Rate For FTTH
Cumulative – North America
23.0%
27.0%
25.0%
19.0%17.6%
14.6%15.5%
3.0%
9.8%8.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009
Year-To-Year Growth In Homes Connected (12 month averages)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Copper
Coax
Fiber
Note: Years since start of installations RVALLC 2009
Current Status Of FTTH Growth
In North America By Country
United StatesCanadaMexicoCaribbean
Current Status Of FTTH Growth
United States By Provider TypeVerizonOther RBOCsTier 2 ILECsTier 3 ILECsCLECsMunisIntegratorsMSOs
1.8
2.1
2.2
3.4
4.4
5.1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Tel - RBOC
Tel - ILEC
MSO/Cable
Municipality/PUD
CLEC
DEV/Integrator
Three Year Change in Connections
RVALLC 2009
FTTH Homes Connected By SegmentCumulative – North America
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1/3 of US (Aggressive ILECs)
Other 2/3 of US
RVALLC 2007
RVALLC 2009Note: Does not show first half 2009
Verizon (10% of their 32 million customers connected with fiber)
Drivers:- Need for new model
- FTTH Council member
- Visionary view
- Outside plant setup
- Regulation changes
Small Rural Telephone Companies (8% of their 8 million customers connected with fiber)
Drivers:- Aging copper lines
- Television opportunity
- Pioneering tradition
- Subsidies
Note: This rural telephone association map shows some, but not all, Tier 3 ILECs
2.5%
1.1%
3.2%
6.9%
4.2%
0.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
5000 and above
1000-4999
250-999
75-249
25-74
Under 24
FTTH Connection Penetration By Zip Code Density
(Density = Homes per sq mile)
RVALLC 2009
1,125,600
3,300,300
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000
3 RBOCs (mostly Verizon)
681 Other providers* x1653 average
The Importance of Smaller Players
RVALLC 2009* Includes CLECs that are divisions of ILECs
25%
14%
43%
18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlilkely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Likelihood Of Deploying FTTH Within 3 Years
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Not Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
44%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Homes passed
Homes connected
Additional 2009 Growth Anticipated
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
Current ProspectsCurrent Prospects
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
Mil
lion
s
Housing starts
New home sales
New home inventories
Housing Statistics
25%
14%
43%
18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlilkely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Likelihood Of Deploying FTTH Within 3 Years
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Not Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
44%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Homes passed
Homes connected
Additional 2009 Growth Anticipated
Tier 3 ILECs Currently Deploying FTTH
RVALLC 2009
Effect of U.S. Stimulus Plan
• Some “de-stimulus” early 2009
• Some stimulus beginning late 2009
29%
37%
45%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Grants
Tax deductions
Tax credits
Low interest loans
Likelihood Of Deploying More By IncentiveTier 3 ILECS
(Percent rating somewhat or much more likely)
RVALLC 2009
9%
9%
54%
86%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Grants
Low interest loans
Tax credits
Tax deductions
Likelihood Of Deploying More By IncentiveMunicipalities
(Percent rating somewhat or much more likely)
RVALLC 2009
Consumer ResponseConsumer Response
2008 Research Continues To Show FTTH Users Work One
AdditionalDay Per Month At Home Due To
FTTH
- Nearly 9% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 11 days more
Days worked from home increased:
30%
60%
66%
86%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
FTTH
Cable Modem*
DSL*
Dial-up*
Internet Customer SatisfactionComparison With Other Services
(Those somewhat or very satisfied)
RVALLC 2009* From 2006 data
9.915.1
30.9
23.017.1
12.79.47.05.2
63.6
46.6
34.2
25.1
18.413.5
20.527.8
37.8
51.3
69.6
94.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Download Mbps
HD Devices Mbps
Total Mbps
RVALLC 2009
Peak Bandwidth Demand Per Average FTTH UserIncluding Internet Download And IPTV HD Devices
17%
19%
20%
21%
23%
27%
29%
32%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Online face-to-face visits with doctorsand nurses
Switching between TV, Internet, andphone with one device
Viewing advanced websites with fullscreen video pages
Monitoring home or pets via videowhile away
Making two-way "video calls" (highquality picture)
Advanced online shopping (enhancedviewing, etc.)
Work from home with morespeed/video conferencing, etc.
Advanced online college opportunities(lecture on demand, etc.)
Percent Believing Future Non Entertainment
FTTH Applications Are ImportantAmong Those 55 And Over
RVALLC 2008
Fiber-to-the-Home Council
North America
Presented by:Michael C. Render
North American FTTH Deployment Update