Dennis F. GallettaUniversity of Pittsburghand President of AIS

Scope of the talk AIS-mission and current status Studies showing the enrollment problem Studies examining causes of the

downturn Various efforts to find a solution What AIS is doing about it

We will focus most closely on North America. Why? It has most of the published data Lessons learned their could be useful world-

wide, sharply reducing this problem for other regions

We will also focus on what AIS is, and then what it is doing

Council Orientation 5

To advance knowledge in the use of information technology to improve organizational performance and individual quality of work life.

Council Orientation 6

AIS Membership2001-2007

As of May 31, 2007

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

7

Academic 2,532 2,223

Student 1,102 946 Professional 110 80 Retired Academic 24 17

Total: 3,768 3,266

8

Region One 2,369 62.9% 1,939 59.4% Region Two 742 19.7% 683 21.0%

Region Three 657 17.4% 644 19.8%

Total 3,768 3,266

Countries 81 Non Rich Academic 106 Non Rich Student 45

9

United States 1,944

China 213 Australia 151 Canada 136 United Kingdom 98 Germany 89 Sweden 71 Taiwan 63 Japan 55 Korea 51Total Top Ten

2,871

2006 (as of Nov. 2006) 2007 (As of May 2007)

United States 2,145

Australia 217

United Kingdom 167

Canada 159

Germany 98

India 93

China 90 Sweden

88 Taiwan 78 Korea 67 Total Top Ten

3,202

10

AAIS - Australia and New Zealand

AIS Maroc - Morocco AIS Pakistan AIS Slovenia BENAIS – Benelux Chinese Speaking

Chapter (Global) CNAIS - China EAIS – Egypt HKAIS – Hong Kong HeAIS – Greece

IAIS - Ireland ILAIS - Israel ITAIS - Italy IRIS - Scandinavian JPAIS - Japan KrAIS – Korea LACAIS - Latin America and Caribbean MWAIS - Midwest NAIS - Japan (Nippon) PeruAIS – Peru PLAIS - Poland SAIS - Southern USA

Providing value to members is one key But a healthy field is another

Our enrollment problems are a threat to AIS

There was money everywhere There were plenty of students who were

studying IT

Dick, et al., 2007 (AMCIS) report that enrollment declines of 70% and more are not uncommon.

George, et al., 2005 (CAIS) report sharp (not gentle) 25-75% drops

U of Va reported shutting down the MSIS program and replacing it with executive program

Many schools want to keep the numbers confidential

MIS Majors and Degrees Conferred, 1980 - 2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Years

Fall MajorsDegrees

15

Mainframe/minicomputer Client/server

Internet boom

(175)

Source: One School in Texas

Another School in Texas – North Texas State

Source: Becker, Hassan, Naumann, 2006

Source:Georgeet al., 2006

Source: Becker, Hassan, Naumann, 2006

Fast ShrinkageFast Shrinkage Fast GrowthFast Growth Shrinking departments “Tenure not available” for

some faculty PhD graduates: placement

trouble Shrinking PhD programs Eventually takes a toll on

research Tenured faculty let go (tenure

is NOT a guarantee after all) Employers are upset to find no

students

Inadequate departments Tenured faculty not available –

teaching overloads Departments have trouble

hiring Lag in growth for PhD programs Also takes a toll on research Many tenured faculty gone;

limits on PhD students admitted Excessive rebounding—hard to

place BS & MBAs

MIS Majors and Degrees Conferred, 1980 - 2003

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Years

Fall MajorsDegrees

21

Mainframe/minicomputer Client/server

Internet boom

(175)

One School in Texas

NOT THIS!

Causes of the downturn Strategies for increasing enrollments

Ten “megatrends” (Becker et al., 2006) accentuate natural (perhaps uncontrollable) fluctuations General employment statistics Baby boomer population bubble Demand/supply of IS/IT faculty Bureau of Labor Statistics 10-year hiring forecasts Increase in number of IT programs/PhD programs Dot-com and Y2K growth 1993-2001 Salary increases and demand for on-shore employees Supply and price of offshore labor AACSB requirements and pressures

The upturn (George et al., 2006) Caused by ERP, Y2K, Internet

Misunderstandings of the field (Konana, 2005) 9/11 attacks (Koch & Kayworth 2007) Interest (Akbulut & Looney 2007) Less confidence (Akbulut & Looney 2007) Outcome expectations (Akbulut & Looney

2007)

Source: Konana 2005

“There is this huge scare about MIS jobs being outsourced. My mother is always telling me this. The media also presents this point of view.”

“There is too much outsourcing in the IT field. This makes majoring in MIS a risk.”

“I know the economy is picking up, however we all remember 2000 and everyone is scared about MIS because of that. I have several friends … many of them were unemployed for 6-12 months during the recession.”

“I think people don't choose MIS because they think it involves programming computers and they don't want to do it.”

“From what I have heard from peers that have entered into the industry as MIS majors, they get stuck programming and doing Computer Science type stuff instead of business related things.”

“…. I don’t want to be left without a job when I am in 40s..”

Myth: All computing jobs are being outsourced

offshore Facts:

US figures show growth in jobs 1 out of 4 jobs by 2014 Wages are 86% more than average US

private sector

Myth: Computing is all about programming

Fact: Use of computers is ubiquitous in modern

life Broad range of interesting fields Joint degree programs—links with

computing

Myth: Degree in computing & IT has less value than before

tech boom Fact:

Significantly higher than many fields Mechanical engineering $54,600 Computer science $51,700 Accounting $46,500 Economics $47,900 Liberal arts $32,500

Myth: Computing is just for men

Fact: Pervasive in society Taulbee report shows increase in female

faculty/postdoctoral students in US

Myth: the Nerd Factor Geeks, pocket protectors, isolated cubicles,

staring into screen writing computer code Fact:

Collaborative, team-oriented world Good communication skills are key to

success IT has become the language of business

Three main reasons not majoring in IS No jobs Parents said no Too hard

Nicholas Carr? Intense MBA competition: population

down a bit and number of schools very sharply increased Pool is smaller even if we maintain

proportion of MBAs Inflated expectations?

The more we study, the more causes we can find

Difficult to enumerate, categorize, condense

It is not clear how to weigh the causes Many have turned to strategies for

increasing enrollments

Busting myths (thanks, Microsoft!) Curriculum efforts for majors New courses for non-majors Scholarships Marketing efforts Industry impacts (salaries, efforts)

Who is working on these? AIS with ACM (2002 undergraduate; 2000

graduate) Now new MSIS 2006 (Gorgone et al., 2006)

(graduate) ISACA (2004)

Source: Konana 2005

Suggested classes for UG-IM Minor

Focus: Business Analysis & Solutions

MIS 32X – Data Manipulation and Analysis

MIS 373.x – Business process analysis and improvement

MIS 373.x – Business intelligenceMIS 375 – Strategic IT Management

Current classes for UG-IM MinorFocus: Application development

MIS 304 – Introduction to Programming

MIS 325 – Introduction to database management

MIS 333k – Advanced application development

And one of the followingMIS 365 – Data communications and

networksMIS 374 – Systems Analysis &

Design

Industry experience Business process management Project management Communication skills Relationship management Integration skills

Source: AMCIS 2007 panel

We don’t know our story “Bumper sticker” needed

Source: AMCIS 2007 panel

Offer a minor! Courses with likely intense interest:

Wireless networks Hacking Computer forensics Business process management

Any “Chocolate” courses Digital media Personal productivity

Educate high school/undergraduate students Videos Word of mouth Wikis/blogs Personal emails Better web sites Improve, update course titles and content Provide executive summaries of courses

Involve multiple entities Undergraduate clubs Have employed or internship alumni

speakers Use current students Use proactive, educated advisors

Broadening understanding of IT Multiple uses of IT Creativity is part of IT

Emotional issues Make first contact with IT positive Put best teachers in core (required) course Faculty should “advertise” future courses Make the courses consistent

The message itself: Provide clear “What is IS?” message Provide compensation details Obtain multiple executive industry partners Provide placement information Provide facts vs myths Explain the diverse role of MIS Explain how MIS differs from CS and Info

Science

Involve multiple entities Undergraduate clubs Have employed or internship alumni

speakers Use current students Use proactive, educated advisors Get media to cover skills shortfall

Keep students interested Freshman seminars CIO-Student Interaction Forums Speed Networking Games Chocolate Courses Show Cool Stuff Make IT Fun Expose them to software

“Bus car” Article in student newspaper T-Shirt (5 reasons to be an IS major) Orientation to tell majors how smart they are Mixer (rewards for recruiting 2 students) Trip to China (created lots of excitement) Slogan (Launch, Fly, Soar) Former students invited with prospective

ones

Facebook Publicity (local newspaper)

“Labor crisis solved by students” Baylor students designed T-shirt

They were in charge completely SIM-Posium Microsoft-SIM-IBM event Jack Becker: Faculty must get involved in

marketing! Send birthday congratulations Make the entry level course exciting

Hypothesized three antecedents to choice goals: Self-efficacy (ability) Interest Outcome expectations (jobs/salary)

Results were interesting (PLS model) Only interest predicted choice goals directly And interest was itself (r2=.32) predicted by

Self-efficacy Outcome expectations

This means that we do derive benefit from telling them about jobs

We also can benefit by demonstrating that they “can do it”

And we should definitely make it interesting

There are some “canned” videos out there

Some schools have peppered YouTube (very smart) with some inspiring and short videos

We want to avoid students saying underwhelming things about the field

Action research: used IS theory and social exchange theory to design a recruiting event Users would be more likely to attend an event if

they help design it Koch and Kayworth wanted to bring business

people in to tell students about IS careers Actual event grew to one in which there was

an exchange of resources Better understanding of each others’ needs A richer event was designed

SIM studies Conger Luftman, Bullen et al. Kaiser, Beath et al.

ACM, AIS, IEEE brochure

Formed a committee of four Geoff Dick: Industry issues Craig Van Slyke: Marketing Ilze Zigurs: Curriculum Jerry Luftman: Other associations (ACM, SIM,

etc.) Creating a wiki Perhaps a contest

Our goal is to create A repository of materials

Brochures (to be co-branded with AIS and school)

Web sites Videos

Advice with a set of approaches that seem to work

Up-to-date statistics

Wiki should be filled with materials, analysis, resources for all AIS members

To be unveiled at ICIS in Montreal (Dec. 2007)

International contest could ask high school students to bust several myths

This could help address our image problems and remove misconceptions

Students in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math in the U.S. dropped much more quickly than jobs!

Most current projections show substantial opportunity for new graduates

Many reports of employers already beginning to find it difficult to hire—and this is just the beginning!

American Sentinel University studied the issue IT positions requiring advanced degrees and

business knowledge are growing at a pace like that of the 1990s

Offshoring only threatens low-end occupations

Systems analysts are not at risk

Money Magazine and Salary.com (May 2006) examined 250 jobs in 19 industries and surveyed 26,000 workers about job satisfaction

They attributed top ranking to: Strong growth prospects Strong pay Potential for creativity

Careers were graded on stress levels, flexibility, creativity, ease of entry, and advancement

Result: Money Magazine’s (May 2006) “Best jobs in America” – we have two in the top 10! Software Engineer Computer/IT analyst

What are the two hottest majors in business schools today and how do they rank? #1 Hottest Major (rhymes with “to

dance”) #2 Hottest Major (rhymes with

“surmounting”) People choose majors based on yesterday’s

news!

US Bureau of Labor Statistics (April 2006) tabulated likely employment increases from 2004 to 2014 Computer Scientists and DBAs: 40% increase Systems Analysts: 31% increase Support Specialists and Systems Administrators:

28% increase Programmers: 2% increase

Apply economics of supply and demand: with enrollment declines how are your prospects? Like the article says: “The Future’s so

Bright You’ve Gotta Wear Shades!”

9 of top 11 wealthiest “under 40” (Forbes) had technology background

IT Workers are above workers overall (Hudson 2006 Survey) Satisfied with pay (78% versus 72%) Expect a raise (57% versus 41%) Received a raise (46% versus 33%) Raise based on performance (47% versus

35%)

                                                                   

The 25 Fastest-Growing Jobs The fastest-growing jobs through 2010 from JIST Publishing. Additional information provided by CareerOINK.com. Click on a job title for more information including earnings, outlook, growth, and more.

 Job Titles Percent Growth

 1. Computer Software Engineers, Applications 100%

 2. Computer Support Specialists 97%

 3. Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 89.7%

 4. Computer Security Specialists 81.9%

 5. Network and Computer Systems Administrators 81.9%

 6. Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 77.5%

 7. Desktop Publishers 66.7%

 8. Database Administrators 65.9%

Five of the top ten high-growth occupations involve technology

Tech job creation has returned to 1999 levels

Tech recruiters are looking hard! IS concentration can enhance students

in finance, operations, marketing, law

Dennis F. GallettaUniversity of Pittsburghand President of AIS