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FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE “MIRACULOUS” VACCINE * José García Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol ** WP-EC 2002-31 Correspondence to: José García Montalvo, Departament d'Economia, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Calle Ramón Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 BARCELONA, Spain, Tel. +34 93 542 25 09, e-mail: [email protected]. Editor: Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. Primera Edición Noviembre 2002 Depósito Legal: V-4549-2002 IVIE working papers offer in advance the results of economic research under way in order to encourage a discussion process before sending them to scientific journals for their final publication. * We thank J. Caballé and M. Reiter and participants in the European Economic Association Meetings (Venice 2002) for many useful comments. The authors are greatful for financial support from the IVIE. ** J. García-Montalvo: Ivie and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; M. Reynal-Querol: Instituto de Análisis Económico (IAE), CSIC, Barcelona.

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Page 1: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE

“MIRACULOUS” VACCINE*

José García Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol**

WP-EC 2002-31

Correspondence to: José García Montalvo, Departament d'Economia, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Calle Ramón Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 BARCELONA, Spain, Tel. +34 93 542 25 09, e-mail: [email protected]. Editor: Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. Primera Edición Noviembre 2002 Depósito Legal: V-4549-2002 IVIE working papers offer in advance the results of economic research under way in order to encourage a discussion process before sending them to scientific journals for their final publication.

* We thank J. Caballé and M. Reiter and participants in the European Economic Association Meetings (Venice 2002) for many useful comments. The authors are greatful for financial support from the IVIE.

** J. García-Montalvo: Ivie and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; M. Reynal-Querol: Instituto de Análisis Económico (IAE), CSIC, Barcelona.

Page 2: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

2

FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE “MIRACULOUS” VACCINE

José García Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol

ABSTRACT

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and its incidence increased during the 90’s. There are basically two factors behind the incidence of malaria: “geographical destiny”, or ecological conditions, and social conditions, which are related with unstable populations or movements of people. In this paper we explore the influence of civil wars and refugees from wars on the incidence of malaria in the asylum countries using a large panel data. The panel structure helps to separate “geographical destiny” from other social conditions. The results of the estimation show the importance of civil wars’ refugees on the increase of malaria during recent years.

Keywords: Malaria, migrations, ecological conditions.

RESUMEN

La Organización Mundial de la Salud estima que cada año se producen 300 millones de nuevos casos de malaria y su incidencia ha aumentado durante los años 90. Hay básicamente dos factores explicativos de la incidencia de la malaria: “destino geográfico”, o condiciones ecológicas, y el contacto social, que está relacionado con movimientos de la población. En este trabajo estudiamos la influencia de las guerras civiles y los refugiados generados por dichas guerras sobre la incidencia de la malaria en los países de asilo usando datos de panel. Esta estructura ayuda a separar el “destino geográfico” de las condiciones sociales. Los resultados de la estimación muestran la importancia de los refugiados de guerras civiles sobre el incremento de la incidencia de la malaria.

Palabras clave: malaria, migraciones, condiciones ecológicas.

Page 3: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Table 1. Determinants of the flow of refugees: Fixed effects model.

Dependent variable: flow of refugees Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 LNGDP 0.0000

(0.36) 0.0002 (1.59)

0.0002 (1.45)

0.0002 (1.44)

0.0002 (1.49)

0.0002 (1.54)

CW 0.004 (5.75)

0.104 (20.53)

0.1211 (23.27)

0.1274 (23.80)

0.1330 (24.53)

0.1389 (24.39)

CW*STLIV -0.0012 (-20.14)

-0.0012 (-21.65)

-0.0013 (-22.04)

-0.0014 (-22.78)

0.0015 (-2255)

STLIV 0.00002 (0.92)

0.0000 (0.51)

0.0000 (0.76)

0.000 (1.15)

0.000 (1.66)

CW*URB -0.0004 (-9.36)

-0.0003 (-5.97)

-0.0003 (-5.18)

-0.0002 (-4.54)

URB 0.00005 (1.04)

0.00005 (1.08)

0.00006 (1.24)

0.000 (1.02)

CW*IRRIG -0.1733 (-5.50)

-0.1698 (-5.35)

-0.1622 (-4.90)

IRRIG -0.025 (-0.80)

-0.0252 (-0.81)

-0.024 (-0.75)

URBDEATH 5.810 (1.75)

7.27 (2.10)

OPEN 0.000 (0.91)

Drought -0.002 (-0.70)

NATDIS Yes Constant 0.00009

(0.09) -0.0038 (-1.51)

-0.0043 (-1.47)

-0.0042 (-1.34)

-0.0054 (-1.71)

-0.007 (-2.03)

R-squared 0.0123 0.1107 0.2073 0.2250 0.2191 0.2187 N 3366 1136 1136 1075 1066 997 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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Page 18: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 20: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 21: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 22: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

Figure 1. Cases of malaria and civil wars.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999) and Doyle and Sambanis (2000).

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Page 23: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

Figura 2: Number of African countries reporting and number of cases.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).

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Page 24: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 25: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

Figure 3. Refugees and cases of malaria.Sources: UNHCR and Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).

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Page 26: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 33: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Page 34: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

Table 2A: Regression results: All refugees (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.055

(1.37) 0.189 (2.34)

0.052 (1.23)

0.023 (0.51)

0.019 (0.44)

0.016 (0.36)

RURAL -100.91 (-7.31)

-224.33 (-3.72)

-142.86 (-8.84)

-144.09 (-8.25)

-146.21 (-8.34)

-162.25 (-8.65)

PHYS -202.49 (-2.55)

IPHYS -258.24 (-4.96)

-317.40 (-5.43)

-317.67 (-5.43)

-321.33 (-5.25)

IRRIG 0.040 (4.19)

0.040 (4.27)

0.038 (3.94)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

R-sq 0.0587 0.0351 0.0494 0.1154 0.1200 0.1242 N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. *significant Table 2B: Regression results: All Refugees (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.887

(6.71) 1.448 (7.18)

0.865 (6.52)

0.871 (6.06)

0.875 (6.08)

0.865 (5.90)

RURAL -123.45 (-7.18)

-121.54 (-3.35)

-156.13 (-7.83)

-161.03 (-7.39)

-163.22 (-7.46)

-175.58 (-7.58)

PHYS -142.53 (-1.41)

IPHYS -233.43 (-3.28)

-249.08 (-3.06)

-246.79 (-3.03)

-265.29 (-3.15)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)

-0.003 (-0.06)

-0.008 (-0.15)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes R-sq 0.0936 0.1518 0.1221 0.1280 0.1296 0.1269 N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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34
Page 35: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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Table3A: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.042

(-0.97) -0.045 (-0.57)

-0.045 (-1.04)

-0.071 (-1.53)

-0.076 (-1.63)

-0.078 (-1.63)

REF1 1.176 (8.03)

2.354 (9.48)

1.147 (7.82)

1.146 (7.34)

1.159 (7.41)

1.146 (7.15)

RURAL -87.56 -83.26 (-2.87)

-127.06 (-7.88)

-128.12 (-7.35)

-130.67 (-7.47)

-145.64 (-7.77)

PHYS -168.19 (-2.25)

IPHYS -241.25 (-4.68)

-297.26 (-5.12)

297.15 (-5.12)

-299.93 (-4.94)

IRRIG 0.038 (4.09)

0.039 (4.17)

0.037 (3.86)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

R-sq 0.1060 0.1646 0.0808 0.1485 0.1533 0.1584 N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 3B: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.071

(-0.29) -0.052 (-0.16)

-0.069 (-0.28)

-0.067 (-0.26)

-0.058 (-0.22)

-0.060 (-0.22)

REF1 1.334 (4.57)

2.372 (5.82)

1.303 (4.46)

1.317 (4.20)

1.312 (4.18)

1.299 (4.06)

RURAL -117.80 (-6.87)

-101.31 (-2.88)

-149.17 (-7.53)

-153.65 (-7.06)

-155.85 (-7.13)

-168.00 (-7.26)

PHYS -115.20 (-1.17)

IPHYS -223.11 (-3.15)

-236.32 (-2.91)

-234.11 (-2.89)

-249.94 (-2.97)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.07)

-0.003 (-0.06)

-0.008 (-0.14)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

R-sq 0.1109 0.2139 0.1353 0.1406 0.1427 0.1412 N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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Table 4A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.212

(-1.05) -0.151 (-0.56)

-0.229 (-1.14)

-0.255 (-1.20)

-0.255 (-1.19)

-0.264 (-1.21)

REF2 0.279 (1.37)

0.368 (1.31)

0.290 (1.43)

0.287 (1.34)

0.283 (1.32)

0.289 (1.32)

RURAL -101.03 (-7.32)

-113.65 (-3.70)

-143.12 (-8.86)

-144.36 (-8.27)

-146.43 (-8.35)

-162.52 (-8.66)

PHYS -202.92 (-2.56)

IPHYS -259.07 (-4.98)

-318.23 (-5.44)

-318.51 (-5.44)

-322.10 (-5.26)

IRRIG 0.039 (4.18)

0.040 (4.25)

0.038 (3.92)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes* R-sq 0.0581 0.0352 0.0493 0.1147 0.1193 0.1235 N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 4B: : Regression results: Refugees from civil war (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.182

(0.82) 0.192 (0.72)

0.158 (0.71)

0.157 (0.66)

0.156 (0.65)

0.150 (0.61)

REF2 0.938 (3.89)

2.283 (6.68)

0.940 (3.90)

0.954 (3.68)

0.960 (3.71)

0.955 (3.62)

RURAL -120.74 (-7.04)

-102.83 (-2.96)

-153.54 (-7.77)

-158.30 (-7.28)

-160.46 (-7.35)

-172.55 (-7.47)

PHYS -150.17 (-1.55)

IPHYS -234.48 (-3.31)

-250.12 (-3.08)

-247.84 (-3.05)

-266.23 (-3.17)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)

-0.003 (-0.07)

-0.008 (-0.16)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

R-sq 0.1093 0.2402 0.1362 0.1407 0.1420 0.1396 N 2294 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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Table5A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.034

(-0.80) -0.015 (-0.21)

-0.038 (-0.88)

-0.063 (-1.38)

-0.068 (-1.48)

-0.070 (-1.49)

REF3 1.408 (9.33)

2.997 (11.52)

1.378 (9.12)

1.382 (8.59)

1.391 (8.64)

1.378 (8.35)

RURAL -86.46 (-6.31)

-74.31 (-2.63)

-125.44 (-7.81)

-126.41 (-7.28)

-128.91 (-7.40)

-143.69 (-7.70)

PHYS -144.59 (-1.99)

IPHYS -238.24 (-4.64)

-293.46 (-5.08)

-293.60 (-5.08)

-296.14 (-4.90)

IRRIG 0.038 (4.04)

0.039 (4.14)

0.037 (3.83)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

R-sq 0.1234 0.2036 0.0916 0.1587 0.1634 0.1691 N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 5B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.113

(0.63) 0.182 (0.77)

0.104 (0.58)

0.106 (0.55)

0.105 (0.55)

0.101 (0.51)

REF3 1.408 (6.29)

2.888 (8.59)

1.387 (6.18)

1.410 (5.84)

1.417 (5.86)

1.406 (5.71)

RURAL -116.12 (-6.80)

-90.30 (-2.66)

-147.08 (-7.46)

-151.26 (-6.98)

-153.32 (-7.04)

-165.12 (-7.17)

PHYS -99.92 (-1.06)

IPHYS -220.32 (-3.12)

-234.43 (-2.90)

-232.15 (-2.87)

-248.22 (-2.97)

IRRIG 0.006 (0.11)

-0.002 (-0.04)

-0.007 (-0.13)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

R-sq 0.1330 0.2768 0.1544 0.1578 0.1594 0.1584 N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 The explanatory variables include time dummies. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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Table 6A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (all asylum countries). Per capita fixed effects and glogit Dependent variable: malaria incidence per capita Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 CapREF -0.0189

(-0.47) -0.0027 (-0.04)

-0.036 (-0.89)

-0.037 (-0.70)

-0.0383 (-0.71)

-0.031 (-0.58)

CapREF3 0.2300 (2.75)

0.9788 (5.61)

0.2196 (2.63)

0.239 (2.75)

0.2379 (2.73)

0.2267 (2.66)

RURAL 0.0008 (4.38)

0.0004 (1.43)

0.0006 (3.46)

0.0005 (3.10)

0.0005 (3.11)

0.0005 (3.06)

PHYS -0.014 (-2.26)

IPHYS -0.0265 (-6.04)

-0.0258 (-5.71)

-0.026 (-5.74)

-0.026 (-5.87)

CapIRRIG 0.0498 (0.65)

0.0453 (0.59)

0.1314 (1.75)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID 0.0017 (0.47)

Year Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country R-squared 0.1155 0.1236 0.1206 0.1110 0.1161 0.1002 N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. *significant Table 6B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries). Per capita fixed effects Dependent variable: malaria incidence per capita Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 CapREF -0.0147

(-0.31) 0.0137 (0.16)

-0.037 (-0.77)

-0.0436 (-0.66)

-0.044 (-0.67)

-0.044 (-0.65)

CapREF3 0.2049 (2.15)

0.941 (4.48)

0.1979 (2.08)

0.2261 (2.24)

0.2241 (2.22)

0.223 (2.16)

RURAL 0.001 (3.76)

0.000 (0.96)

0.0006 (2.86))

0.0005 (2.45)

0.0005 (2.48)

0.0005 (2.11)

PHYS -0.022 (-2.24)

IPHYS -0.039 (-6.42)

-0.037 (-6.07)

-0.0377 (-6.09)

-0.0383 (-5.94)

CapIRRIG 0.214 (1.64)

0.1958 (1.48)

0.199 (1.47)

DR Yes Yes CW Yes Yes MCID 0.00013

(0.03) Year Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country R-squared 0.1331 0.1681 0.1558 0.1313 0.1416 0.1411 N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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Table 7: Analysis of Robustness. Dependent variable: Incidence of Malaria Model All countries Only tropical

countries Without Africa, China, India

REF 0.111 (0.50)

0.218 (0.89)

0.262 (0.50)

REF3 1.414 (8.29)

1.623 (4.48)

0.340 (4.03)

REF2 -0.189 (-0.84)

-0.314 (-0.81)

-0.055 (-1.05)

RURAL -143.01 (-7.66)

-164.51 (-7.14)

6.23 (-1.65)

IPHYS -294.96 (-4.87)

-245.28 (-2.93)

9.38 (1.02)

IRRIG 0.037 (3.83)

-0.006 (-0.12)

0.025 (5.85)

DR Yes

Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

Yes*

MCID Yes*

Yes Yes

R-sq 0.1694 0.1588 0.1724 N 2722 1919 1643 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant

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Page 47: FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING

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