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Return or Remain: Analyzing UNHCR Behavior in the Afghan and Rohingya Refugee Crises
An Honors Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of theRequirements of the Renée Crown University Honors Program at
Syracuse University
Lara Hicks
Candidate for Bachelor of Arts Degreeand Renée Crown University Honors
Spring 2020
Honors Thesis in International Relations
Capstone Project Advisor: _______________________ Dr. Lamis Abdelaaty
Assistant Professor, Political Science
Capstone Project Reader: _______________________ Jared Van Ramshorst Instructor, Geography
Honors Director: _______________________ Chris Johnson, Interim Director
© (Lara Hicks, 2020)
Abstract
This thesis is a qualitative and quantitative study of the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and its crisis response strategies. The project examines the UNHCR through semi-structured interviews and case studies on the Rohingya and Afghan refugee crises. Using thematic analysis of interviewee responses, along with the case studies, I introduce and investigate the plausibility of the Persecution-Source Theory. This theory posits that the UNHCR will respond differently to a refugee crisis depending on the type of persecution refugees experience—internal or external. It argues that when refugees fled their countries of origin due to state-induced persecution (internal), the UNHCR will opt to provide humanitarian assistance as a primary response strategy. Conversely, if refugees fled due to persecution not originating from the state (external), the UNHCR will choose to repatriate as a main strategy. Although similar in many aspects, exploration of the Rohingya and Afghan cases highlights both the easily discernable and ambiguous differences in responses to the crises by the UNHCR. The thesis seeks to identify the “why(s)” behind the UNHCR choosing to pursue a repatriation-centered response over a primary humanitarian assistance-based response in some crises and vice versa. Each case study highlights the UNHCR’s apparent priorities within these internal and external contexts, demonstrating that the constraints placed upon the agency, and humanitarian work in general, highly impact how durable solutions are pursued and implemented. The interviews shed further light on humanitarian and political constraints. The combined results of the interview data and case studies show that, despite some anomalies, the Persecution-Source Theory holds; this is especially true in situations of internal persecution. I conclude that further research on the root causes of refugee crises and their impact on the UNHCR is needed, and that causal factors should be given more weight in how we conceptualize the work of UN agencies as they endeavor to provide refugees with solutions.
Executive Summary
i
This thesis is an examination of the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and its
responses to refugee crises in southern Asia. My research is guided primarily by two questions:
1) What impacts the UNHCR’s ability to find solutions for refugees; and 2) why does the
UNHCR sometimes select repatriation as a main crisis response strategy and at other times
choose humanitarian assistance as the primary crisis response tactic? The aim of this research is
to investigate the various crisis response tactics of the UNHCR through two case studies—the
Afghan and Rohingya refugee crises, which incorporate responses from semi-structured
interviews with refugee officials in the field. Throughout the paper, the refugee crises being
studied are those of mass displacement—one million or more externally displaced people.
To explain the variation in the UNHCR’s responses to refugee crises, I use an original
theory based on the source of the persecution causing refugee crises—a Persecution-Source
Theory. Acknowledging that the UNHCR relies on voluntary funding, the UNHCR will be more
likely to use humanitarian aid as its primary refugee crisis response tactic if a state is persecuting
its people, or internal persecution. Conversely, the UNHCR will be more likely to use
repatriation as a primary strategy if the source of the persecution is derived externally as a result
of inter-state conflicts, invasion, or other means; I call this external persecution. I use both
qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate the Persecution-Source Theory and how it holds
within similar refugee crises. The size of the impact is reflected qualitatively by an analysis of
interview responses and thematic content analyses, and quantitatively by funding trends to the
UNHCR from 2014-2019.
My research is built upon fifteen semi-structured interviews with UNHCR officials and
International Organization for Migration (IOM) workers in Geneva, Switzerland along with
scholars from different think tanks, and a U.S. State Department staff member. I perform
ii
thematic content analyses of the interview responses and assign each interviewee a numerical
value on two, three-point scales. One scale looks at humanitarian aid, relief, and assistance given
to arrival countries, and the other is based on repatriation. A value of “0” on either scale signals
that the response is not used by the UNHCR, whereas a value of “3” represents a 100% response,
meaning that the UNHCR uses that response and that response only as its way of addressing a
refugee crisis. A value greater than 1.5 out of 3 is needed to be considered a primary majority
response to a refugee crisis. Also factored into the scales are an analysis of the Afghan and the
Rohingya refugee crises’ background, UNHCR responses, coordination, UNHCR media
coverage, and funding information.
The results of this research show that the Persecution-Source Theory, when applied to
UNHCR responses, does hold. However, the extent to which it illustrates consistency in refugee
crises is also limited by the politics of the host country and country of origin, and by how the
humanitarian space for the UNHCR to work in is constrained. Furthermore, timing also plays an
important role. Large crises that are protracted, after an initial “Emergency Phase” period in
which humanitarian aid and assistance are readily administered, have the UNHCR develop a
long-term solutions strategy to assist the refugees. In both the Afghan and Rohingya cases, the
UNHCR is most impacted by the persecution that generated the crises when seeking to find
durable solutions for the refugees.
This work is significant in that it contributes to the growing body of research on the
UNHCR and its abilities to provide solutions for refugees. While the results have their
limitations, the thesis highlights the need for researchers to investigate the root causes of conflict
and violence as they relate to UN agencies providing humanitarian aid. Furthermore, it highlights
the confines of the humanitarian space that the UNHCR, the IOM, and other international
iii
organizations occupy. Additional research on these constraints can help to paint a clearer picture
and better inform those advocating on behalf of and working with the world’s millions of
refugees. My hope is to shed more light on the global issue of protracted, mass displacements
through this thesis.
Table of Contents
iv
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………...i Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………...iiAcknowledgments………………………………………………………………………………..vAdvice to Future Honors Students……………………………………………………………..vi
List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………………..viiList of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………...viiiAbbreviations……………………………………………………………………………………ix
Chapter 1: Introduction…………………………………………………………………………1Review of the Literature…………………………………………………………………..3
Chapter 2: Research Design and Theory……………………………………………………...11Theory……………………………………………………………………………………11Research Design and Data……………………………………………………………….24
Chapter 3: Case Study: Internal Persecution of the Rohingya……………………………...33Background………………………………………………………………………………34UNHCR Responses………………………………………………………………………41Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………..48
Chapter 4: Case Study: Afghan Refugees and External Persecution……………………….55Background………………………………………………………………………………56UNHCR Responses………………………………………………………………………63Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………..68
Chapter 5: Conclusion………………………………………………………………….............73
References……………………………………………………………………………………….80Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………...87
Acknowledgments
v
This thesis could not have been possible without the strong support system I have had at Syracuse University. To Dr. Lamis Abdelaaty, thank you for your advising throughout the past two years. Your guidance, patience, and unwavering support has pushed me to grow as a student of international relations and as a researcher within refugee studies. A huge thank you to Jared Van Ramshorst for serving as my reader, your comments and suggestions were especially helpful to me as I sought to make this project more accessible within the forced migration literature. I am especially grateful for the generosity of the Renée Crown University Honors Program—thank you for investing in me financially and personally. A special thanks to Naomi Shanguhyia for your honors and scholarship advising, and to Laura McCall for her assistance in my travel to Geneva, Switzerland. To those I interviewed: thank you for letting me pick apart your brains and for your hospitality in Geneva. Your insights are invaluable, and your service: admirable.
I am forever indebted to the International Relations Department; thank you for providing me with rigorous coursework, wonderful advising, and for recognizing the scholar in me. I am particularly grateful to the strong women of IR that have taught, advised, and encouraged me: Dr. Francine D’Amico, Dr. Terrell Northrup, Amy Kennedy, and Angela Allen. Additionally, thank you to the Maxwell-in-Washington program for a life-changing semester in Washington DC and for help with connecting me to the interviewees of this thesis (shoutout to Dr. Ryan Williams and Dr. James Keagle!). Furthermore, thank you to the Syracuse Model United Nations Team and to delegates past and present; your commitment to upholding the ethos of the UN system was what motivated me to pursue this project in the first place.
To the friends that motivated me as I persevered in my writing amidst procrastination along with literal blood, sweat, and tears: thank you. I truly could not have done this without you all (especially Erin, Julia, and Patrick). And, to my family, your love and support has kept me going through the ups and downs of undergraduate life. Thank you for believing in me and for shaping me into the person I am today.
***
This thesis was born out of an intense appreciation for the strength and resilience of the world’s many refugees. Thank you for sharing your stories, it is those stories that have enabled me to research and to advocate.
vi
Advice to Future Honors Students
First, be kind to yourself. There will be times where you are unsatisfied with your work
and have trouble remaining motivated. If you are anything like me, you will probably fret over
little details and strive to be a perfect writer while conducting research amid an inherently
imperfect process. Hold yourself to high standards, but recognize that there will always be more
to do (and isn’t that the point of conducting original research? This is not the end but only the
beginning for many of us!). I encourage you to reach out to others working on their projects or to
friends and family for support.
Do keep a notebook and folder with your thesis notes and drafts to refer to. It is so easy to
lose track of your project if you lack a system to organize your thoughts, ideas, sources, and
comments. Establish timelines as you go, one large general one with important dates, and smaller
detailed ones for each semester. Communicate diligently with your advisor, and do not be afraid
to ask “stupid” questions. Stick to your deadlines, try not to procrastinate, and do not get super
frustrated with yourself for inevitably doing so.
Finally, your advisors are more than just faculty member supervising your progress. Use
this thesis as an opportunity to immerse yourself in something that matters to you and share these
personal and research experiences with your advisor. It is scary to be vulnerable with those you
look up to, but I believe that expressing vulnerability and understanding that there is so much we
do not know is an organic part of writing an Honors Thesis. Now, get out there and write!
vii
List of Figures
Figure 1. UNHCR Response to Refugee Crisis Scales 13
Figure 2. UNHCR Phases in Responding to the Indochinese Refugee Crisis 23
Figure 3. Resilience and Solutions Measures for Inside Afghanistan—Budget 26
Figure 4. UNHCR's Supplementary Appeal - Myanmar Refugee Emergency—Budget 27
Figure 5. UNHCR Planning Framework 28
Figure 6. Phases of Thematic Analysis 32
Figure 7. Myanmar and Bangladesh Map 34
Figure 8. Rohingya Refugee Arrival Trends Since Aug. 2017 39
Figure 9. UNHCR 2018 Rohingya JRP Protection Framework’s Four Pillars 44
Figure 10. UNHCR Response to Rohingya Refugee Crisis Scale 51
Figure 11. Map of Afghanistan and Refugee Movements 56
Figure 12. Afghan Repatriation Trends Since 2009 61
Figure 13. UNHCR Response to Afghan Refugee Crisis Scale 70
viii
List of Tables
Table 1. UNHCR—Myanmar Financials 46
Table 2. UNHCR—Bangladesh Financials 47
Table 3. Thematic Analysis of Interviews; Rohingya Case 49
Table 4. UNHCR—Afghanistan Financials 67
Table 5. UNHCR—Pakistan Financials 68
Table 6. Thematic Analysis of Interviews; Afghan Case 69
ix
Abbreviations
HRP Humanitarian Response Plan
ICC International Criminal Court
IDP Internally Displaced Person
IGO Intergovernmental Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IOM International Organization for Migration
JRP Joint-Response Plan
MoU Memorandum of Understanding
NGO Non-governmental Organization
OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
OHCHR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights
PoR Proof of Registration
RBA Rights-Based Assessment
RSD Refugee Status Determination
SSAR Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees
UN United Nations
UNHCR UN Refugee Agency
x
Chapter 1
Introduction
no one leaves home unlesshome is the mouth of a sharkyou only run for the borderwhen you see the whole city running as well…
no one leaves home unless home chases youfire under feethot blood in your bellyit’s not something you ever thought of doinguntil the blade burnt threats intoyour neckand even then you carried the anthem underyour breathonly tearing up your passport in an airport toiletsobbing as each mouthful of papermade it clear that you wouldn’t be going back…1
Syria, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Bosnia, Palestine—refugee crises are born
out of violence, uprooting individuals and families from all over the world against their will. The
United Nations (UN) estimates 70.8 million people around the world have been forced from their
homes by conflict and persecution at the end of 2018. Of those, nearly 30 million are refugees—
people that crossed international borders when fleeing—and that number continues to increase
(UNHCR 2019). These figures demonstrate the need for a stronger and more proactive global
response. Unfortunately, countries’ efforts to mitigate and alleviate these crises have been
limited. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is mandated to assist and protect
refugees via refugee camps, aid distribution, documentation assistance, and through other means.
The UNHCR is also tasked with alleviating crises, with the goal to repatriate or return refugees
1 “Warsan Shire – Home.” n.d. Genius. Accessed April 6, 2020. https://genius.com/Warsan-shire-home-annotated.
safely back to their countries of origin.2 However, the agency faces numerous challenges and
criticisms.
The UNHCR’s efforts to aid refugees are especially hampered by ongoing protracted
conflicts. This contrasts with the crises that characterized the initial post-World War II period,
which ended when the conflict or root causes of the forced displacements were addressed
(Adelman 2001). There has been a shift in the rhetoric and conception of large-scale refugee
crises since it is recognized that these displacements are likely to continue for many years to
come (Harrell-Bond 1989, 50-51). Some scholars and researchers of forced migration direct
attention to the existing knowledge rifts in understanding the implications of refugee-generating
conditions, and the solutions to these conditions. For example, Weiner (2007) expresses “the
confusion among policy makers in how to think about, much less respond to, the internal crises
in Rwanda, Burundi, Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia, and Russia’s Chechnya demonstrates how great is
the intellectual vacuum” (6). His statement predates the Syrian refugee crisis, a crisis which
conveyed the extent to which mass exoduses of people impact international relations,
humanitarian response, and global security.
This calls into question the UNHCR’s effectiveness and capacity due to the growing
numbers of displaced persons. The UN Refugee Agency seeks to find solutions for refugees and
promotes different strategies for different crises, but just how effective are those responses? How
does the UNHCR determine a crisis response strategy for each refugee situation? What impacts
the UNHCR’s ability to assist refugees in finding solutions? Does the violence or persecution
that generated the refugee crisis have any influence on how the UNHCR determines a response
strategy to address it? Why does the UNHCR sometimes select repatriation (voluntary return)
2 See Wani 1999, 212 for a more thorough and exhaustive account of the UNHCR’s mandate.
2
and other times choose humanitarian assistance as a primary refugee crisis alleviation method?
These are the questions that this thesis explores and hopes to answer.
In an attempt to make sense of the puzzling elements in UNHCR policy and practice, I
introduce an original theory based on the source of the persecution causing refugee crises in
relation to funding—a Persecution-Source Theory. Acknowledging that the UNHCR relies on
voluntary funding, the UNHCR will be more likely to use humanitarian aid as its primary
refugee crisis response tactic if a state is persecuting its people, or internal persecution.
Conversely, the UNHCR will be more likely to use repatriation as a primary strategy if the
source of the persecution is derived externally as a result of inter-state conflict, invasion, or other
means; I call this external persecution. Later in the thesis, I use qualitative and quantitative
methods to evaluate the Persecution-Source Theory and how it holds within similar refugee
crises. I maintain my focus on the types of root causes in crises, or rather, refugee-generating
conflicts since there is a greater need for more proactive policies and humanitarian responses—
reform that centers refugee crisis prevention at the forefront.
Review of the Literature
Despite the demonstrated urgency and the global scale of the multiple ongoing refugee
crises, forced migration literature often focuses on the UNHCR and its functions from a security
perspective but does not examine the differing types of persecution and how they may affect the
UNHCR’s work with refugees. In this chapter, I review the literature through three critical
themes: 1) root causes in forced migration; 2) factors influencing UNHCR operations; and 3)
categorizing persecution. This thesis researches refugee crises in southern Asia using combined
aspects of these themes.
3
Root Causes in Forced Migration
A body of literature concentrates on the root causes of refugee crises. Stein (1986b)
iterates in his piece The Experience of Being a Refugee: Insights from the Research Literature
that scholars should analyze refugee crises using historical and comparative perspectives, which
“views them as recurring phenomena with identifiable and often identical patterns of behavior
and sets of causalities” (5). Researchers did just that, examining different sets of causal factors or
root causes of refugee crises within different contexts. Zolberg, Astri, and Sergio (1989) write
that international war may generate refugee flows. Moore and Shellman (2006) look at the
effects of genocide, politicide, and state-sponsored violence on refugee movements. Hovil and
Lomo (2015) stress that displacement is engendered by different interconnected causal factors,
particularly those that are historical, political, legal, social, economic, and religious. White
(2017) adds to the discussion, referring to root causes as “political, demographic and climactic
forces that impel people to move from their homes to safe places,” specifying that these causal
factors are related to violence, climate change, and population changes (76-77).
In addition to explaining how refugee law responded to changes in refugee “flights,”
Jenkins and Schmeidl (1995) group the world’s refugees into five major groups: 1) political
dissidents; 2) target minorities; 3) victims of generalized violence; 4) victims of state-inflicted
terrorism; and 5) victims of international wars (65). Their analysis includes mapping ethnic
competition, political exclusion, and other components that lead to civil wars, state repression,
and international wars using the world system theory3 (76). They also contend that any durable
solution requires addressing the “underlying root causes” of the refugee crisis (79).
3 The world system theory focuses on the world-system as a primary unit of analysis, see Wallerstein, Immanuel. 1992. “The West, Capitalism, and the Modern World-System” 15 (4): 561-619.
4
It is also worth acknowledging the use of case studies and detailed investigations of
refugee crises that endeavor to reveal more complete causal stories. Such work has varied in
scale, geography, and length; Crisp (1984), Whitaker (2008), Ogata (1999), Nair (1997), and
Betts (2013b) provide compelling case studies on the refugees in Djibouti, Tanzania, Kosovo,
South Asia, Yemen, and Somalia to name a few.
I now turn to the factors that influence UNHCR operations, which are often tied to the
root causes of the crises the agency aims to alleviate.
Factors Influencing UNHCR Operations
Many scholars discuss factors that influence UNHCR operations but vary in their
focuses. A significant strand of literature points to funding as a major factor influencing UNHCR
operations and does so employing myriad research methods. Zeager and Bascom (1996) use
game theory within international relations to research the impacts of funding on UNHCR
decision-making regarding repatriation (483). They also look at how donor fatigue—a decrease
in funding from donors who grow “fatigued” from contributing monetarily to a crisis that is yet
to end—limits the UNHCR in enacting effective repatriation initiatives (483). Crisp (2001),
Harrell-Bond (1989), Vayrynen (2001), and Whitaker (2008) review funding gaps within the
refugee regime. They too find that a lack of donor support affects the UNHCR’s operations; less
funding prevents the UNHCR from assisting refugees how the agency sees fit and prolongs a
refugee crisis.
However, the voluntary funding narrative may be more complicated than this
generalization implies. Roper and Barria (2010) suggest that the use of earmarked donations
signaling foreign policy priorities of industrialized states providing larger contributions “may not
be linked to larger humanitarian issues” (631). Thus, the type of funding allocated to certain
5
crises or projects can further influence the UNHCR’s work on the ground. One can assert that
funding and state influence are associated with the UNHCR’s policies and practices.
Loescher (2001) investigated this assertion in his work. He finds that the UNHCR is
essentially a pawn for states vying for different interests, many of which are political.
Furthermore, he claims that Western donors’ views carry a lot of weight in how the UNHCR
implements durable solutions like repatriation. Barry Stein (1986a) had reached a similar
conclusion earlier, he posits that international politics play an especially important role in
constraining the UNHCR (269). Barnett (2001) describes how the UNHCR felt pressure from
states to pursue certain refugee policies (256). Lischer and Milner (2003) also look at state
influence but offer a more nuanced explanation: the lack of political will among states leads to
inaction and depletion of voluntary funds to the UNHCR (613). Taking this point even further,
the overall lack of political will hinders the UNHCR from helping refugees find and experience
durable solutions (613).
The discussion on the effectiveness of the UNHCR’s three durable solutions—
repatriation (voluntary return), reintegration (integrating refugees into their country of origin or a
host country), and resettlement (moving refugees to a third country to resettle)—has received
more attention within refugee scholarship. Goodwin-Gill (2001) refers to these aspects of the
literature as the “challenge of solutions,” identifying more scenarios that seem unlikely
candidates for any kind of long-term solution, let alone a durable one (140). Crisp’s analyses are
in consonance with Goodwin-Gill’s, he finds that durable solutions are “unrealistic,” as are the
UNHCR’s expectations and responsibilities when approaching a refugee crisis (186-187). This is
especially pertinent with regard to repatriation, it is possible that a continued focus on
6
repatriation as the durable solution of choice is unrealistic and unachievable given many
disruptions to traditional statecraft and UN work, of which are forthcoming (Harrell-Bond 1989).
The scholarly research largely examines external factors or conditions influencing the
UNHCR’s ability to assist refugees, and Adelman (2001) believes that these external conditions
frame UNHCR responses (11). However, it is also important to consider the evolution of the
agency itself under changing external conditions. Scholars have taken note; Pitterman (1984)
was vocal about the UNHCR’s identity constraints as early as the 1980s (26). She states that the
agency was amid an identity crisis, one that would prevent it from effectively fulfilling its
mandate to protect the world’s refugees (26). Similarly, Barnett (2001) attributes changes in how
sovereignty was conceived and acted on within the state system to greater UNHCR intervention
in refugee crises (245). Now, the UN Refugee Agency could engage with countries of origin
preemptively—perhaps expanding work into international development and capacity building.
This topic within UNHCR and refugee regime literature essentially opened Pandora’s
box. What, then, was the UNHCR’s mandate given the changing international landscape? Betts
(2013a) puts forth an explanation pertaining to “regime complexity.” He indicates that the
network of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs),
governments, and other actors within the refugee regime possess competing, overlapping
interests. This, in turn, makes it difficult for the UNHCR to realize and fulfill its mandate, as
well as prompts the agency to take on responsibilities that are probably better suited for other
organizations (i.e. the United Nations Development Programme) (71-74). In sum, the
partnerships the UNHCR has with others involved in refugee protection and assistance
complicate the agency’s work, causing criticism and questioning of its leadership.
7
Another factor that could impact the UNHCR’s operations is related to security. Loescher
(1994) observed trends in conflicts that generated refugee crises and noticed that the number of
internal conflicts was steadily increasing (365). The nature of warfare and violence was shifting
inward, meaning that mass displacements could be attributed to civil war, ethnic-related
violence, and state-sponsored persecution (365). Loescher’s work at most alludes to the potential
relationship between the types of refugee-generating conflicts and the UNHCR’s capacity to
provide refugees of those conflicts with solutions and assistance—the subject of this thesis. And
at the very least, his work highlights that the changing nature of conflicts has political
implications for a supposedly non-political organization, along with a need for reform to the
UNHCR’s mandate to adapt to the new security realities we are witnessing (internally-displaced
persons, a growing responsibility for the agency, are a concrete example of this complexity).
Much of the refugee scholarship has covered the many confounding variables in the
context of the UNHCR’s operations, but this theme within the literature misses an opportunity to
connect the persecution or the conditions that created a refugee crisis, to the network of factors
that influence the UNHCR’s work. The final section addresses this gap by returning the literature
review to persecution. I choose to examine different groupings and categorizations of
persecution within refugee studies, with some serving as a framework for the research methods
of this thesis.
Categorizing Persecution
Weiner (1996) is one of few calling for classification of persecution types in the hopes
that this categorization will inform national governments and institutions as they devise policies.
I find Weiner’s methodology significant; it serves as a framework for my development of the
Persecution-Source Theory. Weiner describes persecution actors in refugee crises as
8
“internalists” and “externalists,” but also notes that complexity within these labels should be
taken into account (1996, 35).
Werkner (2010) examines internality and externality regarding security and the causes of
refugee crises, or “the origin of the threat [emphasis in the original]” (68). She links the many
constraints and power relations that come with humanitarian missions and the use of armed
forces to the theoretical works of Thomas Hobbes and John Locke (68). Werkner details the
contention experienced among states and IGOs in terms of protection and intervention
(especially relevant in the contexts under which the UNHCR operates) (68). This does not
consider how this same contention can cause harm or conflict which forcibly displaces people. In
her piece What’s So Special About Persecution? Kuosmanen (2014) looks at different
conceptions of persecution, identifying the core components of systematic threats. She mentions
the role of “state-like organizations involved in [prima facie]4 persecution points,” an
acknowledgment of extremist groups causing mass displacements (133).
Still, Weiner uses the most systematic approach to categorizing persecution. His
groupings of refugee-generating conflicts are designated as four types: 1) inter-state wars
(including anti-colonial wars), 2) ethnic conflicts, 3) non-ethnic civil conflicts, and 4) flights
from repressive authoritarian and revolutionary regimes (Weiner 1996, 9). He focuses on “mass
refugee flows,” (as do I throughout this thesis) in which more than 10,000 individuals crossed an
international border due to consequences of their country of origin and were classified by the
UNHCR and/or governments as refugees (9-10). However, there are caveats to persecution
categorizing. Weiner acknowledges that it is difficult to classify a conflict or persecution source
as ethnic or non-ethnic (18). Using the Afghan conflict as an example, Weiner explains the
4 The UNHCR uses prima facie status for those defined by fleeing in mass movements, usually as a result of conflict or violence, when it is not always possible or necessary to conduct individual interviews with every asylum seeker who crosses a border; see Zieck, Marjoleine 2015, 1115-129.
9
transitions between civil war and inter-state war in Afghanistan but ultimately categorizes the
refugee crisis as a “war-related case,” deeming the principal factor or original persecution source
that led to the mass exodus as the framework for categorizing conflict in refugee crises (18).
This chapter reviewed the existing literature on persecution and UNHCR operations, as
well as identified notable research gaps. Although the refugee literature has expanded to consider
the various causes of refugee crises, it seldom considers categorizing the causal factors to
analyze and discern any trends to inform policymakers, humanitarian workers, governments, and
NGOs. Investigating the relationship between different types of persecution in refugee crises and
what effects they can have on UNHCR responses to refugee crises can lead to proactive reforms
to the agency. Chapter two draws from the three themes discussed to describe my research
design, theory, and data collection methods. Chapters three and four then apply the research
methods to case studies on the Rohingya and Afghan refugee crises. I conclude in chapter five,
summarizing my findings and how the Persecution-Source Theory fared in the analyses.
10
Chapter 2
Theory
The UNHCR continues to use different strategies to respond to different crises, but it is
difficult to discern why the agency does this in refugee crises where solutions seem scarce. It is
important to investigate the greater processes that the UNHCR dictates or is dictated by in order
to best assist refugees and better inform all actors within the refugee regime. To that end, this
thesis examines large protracted refugee crises in Asia, analyzing its causes, effects, and
implications for the UNHCR.
In the first part of this chapter, my research question is introduced, and the chosen
theoretical framework is justified. Specifically, I define the dependent and independent variables,
present my hypothesis based on an original Persecution-Source Theory, and provide alternative
explanations. The second part of Chapter 2 explains my research design by identifying the
research methods utilized to test the hypothesis. This thesis uses a mixed-methods approach,
combining qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitatively, an analysis of funding earmarks to
the UNHCR is conducted to determine trends. Qualitatively, research focuses on the Afghan and
Rohingya refugee crises as two case studies. Interviews of UNHCR staff, IOM staff, and
individuals associated with UNHCR operations within the context of the case studies are
evaluated using thematic analysis techniques.
Research Question
Why does the UNHCR differ in their response strategies to similar refugee crises? More
specifically, why does the UNHCR sometimes select repatriation as its main crisis response
strategy and at other times choose humanitarian assistance for refugee host countries as a
primary crisis response tactic instead? The aim of these research questions is to examine the
11
various UNHCR crisis responses and plans through two case studies (the Afghan refugee crisis
and the Rohingya refugee crisis), if/why one method was preferred over the other in these
particular cases, and what implications that has for preventing future refugee crises. Throughout
this thesis, the refugee crises being studied are those of mass displacement—one million or more
externally displaced people.5
Nomenclature and Application
A refugee, as defined by the UNHCR, is a person forced to flee his or her country due to
persecution, conflict, or violence (1951 Refugee Convention). A refugee is only identified as
such if there is reasonable evidence that the individual is experiencing a “well-founded fear” of
persecution pertaining to race, religion, nationality, politics, or membership in a specific social
group. In accordance with the 1951 Geneva Convention, the refugee must be outside the country
of origin and be unable to return to or fear returning to the country of origin given a “well-
founded fear” of persecution. A refugee differs from a voluntary migrant, who willingly leaves a
country of origin for economic advancement, and an internally displaced person (IDP), who too
flees but does not cross an international border.
I use the terms humanitarian aid and assistance interchangeably to mean food, water,
shelter, and health-related and other services typically provided to refugees by the UNHCR.
Country of origin and home country all refer to the state that a refugee was originally from or the
country of a refugee’s nationality. Likewise, the host country and receiving country describe the
state (being examined) that is accepting refugees.
Dependent Variable
5 This was a purposeful decision, but it would be wise to investigate smaller refugee crises for future study.
12
The dependent variable of this thesis is the UNHCR’s primary response to a refugee
crisis. Responses are examined on two, three-point scales, one regarding humanitarian aid, relief,
and assistance given to arrival countries and the other on repatriation. A value of “0” on either
scale signals that the response is not used by the UNHCR, whereas a value of “3” represents a
100% response, meaning that the UNHCR uses that response and that response only as its way of
addressing a refugee crisis. Any values in-between equate to a mix of responses by the UNHCR,
a value greater than 1.5 out of 3 is needed to be considered a primary majority response to a
refugee crisis. Any value besides the sum of both the UNHCR’s use of humanitarian aid as a
response and repatriation as a response represents other refugee crisis alleviating tactics such as
resettlement or economic integration. Figure 1 illustrates these scales.
Figure 1. UNHCR Response to Refugee Crisis Scales
Repatriation in its simplest terms is defined by the UNHCR as the act of returning to the
country of origin (1951 Convention). Repatriation can be voluntary and involuntary. In the
context of refugee crises, voluntary repatriation is the return of refugees to their countries of
13
origin, given that these states are safe to return to. Furthermore, voluntary repatriation occurs
only when refugees repatriate willingly. The UNHCR facilitates voluntary repatriation through
various means, including in-person interaction with refugees, monitoring the conditions of
countries of origin, and assisting refugees’ return administratively and legally, among others.
Conversely, involuntary repatriation implies that refugees return to their countries of origin
against their will. Involuntary repatriation is often associated with non-refoulement, which
means, as stated in Article 33 (1) of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees:
“No Contracting State shall expel or return (‘refoule’) a refugee in any manner whatsoever to the
frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race,
religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” (1951 Refugee
Convention).
Humanitarianism is characterized by three guiding principles of humanitarian action: a
‘humanitarian’ element, impartiality, and neutrality. As a result, humanitarian aid signals the
actions relief agencies use to uphold international humanitarian law to prevent and end human
suffering via these principles (International Committee of the Red Cross 2020). Relief,
assistance, and aid can take on many forms. The most basic and common forms include food,
shelter materials, health services, protection, and education (International Committee of the Red
Cross 2020). Some less obvious forms are site planning initiatives and the use of cash-based
interventions (Use of Unearmarked Funding). Numerous UN organizations and funds such as the
UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization, and the World Food
Programme collaborate with NGOs and the UNHCR to administer humanitarian aid to specific
populations. According to Heather Rysaback-Smith, humanitarian aid was “once almost
14
exclusively related to military conflict” (2016). After WWII ended, aid took on a global focus
and shifted from strictly Europe to parts of Asia and Africa (Rysaback-Smith 2016).
Persecution-Source Theory
To explain the variation in the UNHCR’s responses to refugee crises, I use an original
theory based on the source of the persecution causing refugee crises in relation to funding—a
Persecution-Source Theory. Acknowledging that the UNHCR relies on voluntary funding, the
UNHCR will be more likely to use humanitarian aid as its primary refugee crisis response tactic
if the origin country of the crisis’s government is directly persecuting its people internally.
Conversely, the UNHCR will be more likely to use repatriation as its primary strategy if the
source of the persecution is not derived from the state internally, but rather externally vis-à-vis
other states or actors as explained below. Funding would be delegated to repatriation efforts as a
result. If the persecution has elements that are internal and external, the UNHCR will follow a
standard process beginning with humanitarian aid steps and then will gradually repatriate
refugees. Thus, funding will vary based on the progression of a crisis but will be primarily
focused on humanitarian aid efforts.
All things equal, if one examines the source of the persecution one can assert that the
UNHCR would respond differently with respect to sovereignty and international norms. If a state
is persecuting its own people (resulting in mass forced displacement), the UNHCR would take a
pseudo-state approach to provide these refugees with basic needs without disparaging the origin
state’s sovereignty. Refugees fleeing this type of persecution would be less likely to voluntarily
return because they would not want to repatriate to a state that targets them and denies them their
basic human rights.
15
However, if the government of a state is not outright persecuting its people, the refugees
fleeing their country of origin would be more inclined to return. Typically, these refugees still
have citizenship in their country of origin and are recognized as legitimate citizens of that state.
Thus, the UNHCR, the host countries, and the refugees themselves would favor repatriation if it
is possible.
For the purposes of this theory, large-scale examples of conflict and violence leading to
large refugee crises/mass displacements are examined.
Internal Persecution
The first part of the theory concerns itself with persecution toward refugees of a
particular country perpetrated by that country’s central government. This internal category of
persecution can take on multiple forms, but large-scale events including those of civil war, ethnic
cleansing, and genocide are the forms of internal persecution I focus on as they are associated
with larger refugee crises.
An example of forced displacement as a result of civil war is the Yemeni Refugee Crisis.
The Yemeni Civil War caused 3 million Yemenis to seek refuge in neighboring countries and 22
million in need of humanitarian assistance. The source of the persecution against many Yemeni
refugees effectively originated from the central government itself due to this civil war (Yemen
Refugee Crisis).
Many definitions of ethnic cleansing exist throughout global security studies literature,
but the UN officially defines it as: “rendering an area ethnically homogeneous by using force or
intimidation to remove from a given area persons of another ethnic or religious group” (Office
on Genocide Prevention). There is no international treaty that details ethnic cleansing as a
specific crime. However, ethnic cleansing is defined as “a crime against humanity under the
16
statutes of both the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Criminal Tribunal
for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY)” (Office on Genocide Prevention). It is frequently hard to
distinguish between acts of genocide and those of ethnic cleansing, as ethnic cleansing crimes
can violate specific parts of the UN Genocide Convention. However, the refugee crises resulting
from the Yugoslav Wars are frequently used as examples of ethnic cleansing and ethnic conflict.
Genocide, as defined by the UN Genocide Convention (1948), consists of “acts
committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious
group”. The legal definition is in Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment
of the Crime of Genocide and further expands upon the acts of genocide:
any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; [and] forcibly transferring children of the group to another group (Office on Genocide Prevention).
The Great Lakes refugee crisis is an example of genocide present in refugee crises. It began with
two million Rwandans fleeing to the surrounding Great Lakes region of Africa after the
Rwandan genocide. Hutus were escaping persecution from the Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front,
which had taken over Rwanda at that point (BBC News Rwanda Genocide 2019).
Yet another example of internal persecution present in refugee crises is the repressive
regime. Although repression of governments can vary, by in large security forces either
supporting or not supporting the current head of state commit violence against civilians. The
crisis in Venezuela highlights such a dynamic. An estimated 1.4 million refugees have fled to
neighboring Colombia, escaping violence from the Maduro administration (Wilkinson 2019).
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External Persecution
External sources of persecution would by default be any forms of persecution not directly
coming from the refugee crisis origin state’s central government. Instead, refugees are persecuted
by other state and/or non-state actors. Violence as a result of terrorist activity and war between
one or more states is the best example of external persecution.
One case of external persecution is Boko Haram and its exodus of Nigerian refugees.
Although the Nigerian military executed the terrorist group’s leader in 2009, a resurgence of
Boko Haram attacks led to 250,000 Nigerian refugees fleeing to Cameroon, Chad, and Niger
along with attacks on the UN and government buildings (Nichols 2015). Afghanistan, as we will
later see, is another state that has dealt with (and still deals with) terrorism and refugee crises.
A war between two or more states can also lead to refugee crises. During the Vietnam
War in 1975, roughly three million people attempted to escape to other countries via boat. These
Indochinese “boat people” were escaping Communist-rule and the ongoing conflict between the
United States and Vietnam (Thompson 2010). The Iraq War between the U.S. and Iraq is another
instance where a war between states creates refugee movements.
Mixed Persecution
It is important to note that the above examples are fluid and not always entirely boxed
into either external persecution or internal persecution. Often, civil war leaves power vacuums
for terrorist organizations to fill, suggesting a transfer in persecution from an internal source to
an external source. Furthermore, other categories of persecution exist. Some examples include
smaller-scale events and more “mixed” sources of persecution (slavery). Whether more internal,
external, or maybe a combination of both, persecution varies in practice and intent.
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An example of terrorist groups contributing to the forced displacement of people is the
crisis in Syria. Al-Nusra, ISIS, and other groups are involved in the power shifts of the Syrian
Civil War, causing 5.6 million people to flee Syria from 2011 onward according to most recent
UNHCR figures (Syrian Refugee Crisis). However, the Assad regime has also greatly persecuted
Syrians. Both internal and external sources of persecution are present in the Syrian Civil War and
crisis, they highlight the differing interests of major stakeholders.
As I have mentioned in the last chapter, Weiner (1996) throughout his categorization of
the root causes of refugee crises found it difficult to assign one label to a multi-faceted refugee
crisis. However, he chooses to attribute a refugee crisis classification to the initial origin of the
crisis. His example of Afghanistan as a war-related case demonstrates the complexity between
civil war and inter-state war in distinguishing a crisis from others. To address any ambiguity that
comes with the Persecution-Source Theory, I too label Afghanistan as a war-related case and
focus on contrasting internal persecution with external persecution, rather than choosing to look
at the joint impact of mixed persecution cases.
Hypotheses and Observable Implications
My hypothesis derives from the Persecution-Source Theory. When comparing states
experiencing refugee crises, I expect the UNHCR to administer humanitarian aid/relief efforts as
its primary strategy of aiding refugees fleeing from internal, state-sponsored persecution. I also
expect the UNHCR to use repatriation as its primary strategy in alleviating refugee crises where
the main source of persecution originates from different state or non-state actors.
If correct, multiple observations exist when employing this theory. When the source of
persecution causing a refugee crisis is internal, deriving from the country of origin’s government,
the UNHCR will have a majority percentage of its funds directed toward alleviating the crisis
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through humanitarian aid tactics. Furthermore, within quotes, interviews, and media analyses, the
UNHCR will press for humanitarian aid-related donations to the crisis and/or explain its
priorities for assisting the refugees affected by state-led persecution. Conversely, if the source of
persecution causing a refugee crisis is external, from other state or non-state actors, the UNHCR
will focus a majority percentage of its funds toward alleviating the crisis through repatriation
efforts. Quotes, interviews, and media analyses should point to increased movements of
voluntary repatriation. In cases where persecution is both internal and external, the UNHCR will
focus its funds mostly toward humanitarian aid relief efforts.
Alternative Explanations
Although there is a compelling case that can be made for the source of refugee
persecution and the preference of either repatriation or assistance/aid directed toward the host
country by the UNHCR, there are factors other than the source of the persecution that could
influence the relationship between UNHCR crisis response tactics and refugee crises. The
allocating of funds toward certain refugee crisis alleviating strategies, media coverage of crises,
and a standard process based on timing are three alternative explanations for UNHCR
preferences toward certain strategies over others.
Funding Allocation
The UNHCR receives its funding through voluntary donations. There exist two avenues
for allocating funds: 1) Earmarked Funds (General Programs) and 2) Special Projects. Donors
can decide what kind of donation they would like to make. In other words, donors are in control
of whether their donations go toward General Programs and/or Special Projects. However, more
emphasis has been placed on Special Projects funding since states and donors can use this
category as a means of supporting specific refugee crises and responses to them in certain ways.
20
Donors do this for a variety of reasons, but often for political motivations (Harrell-Bond 1989).
General Programs funding has taken a hit as a result, and general humanitarian aid/relief,
although still in great demand, is less likely to be funded compared to specific initiatives (Forced
Displacement in 2017).
Controlling for all other variables and given this information, in a comparison of refugee
crises, the UNHCR may choose to administer humanitarian aid/relief efforts as its primary
strategy of aiding refugees when top donors’ (namely state governments) voluntary funds are
delegated specifically to humanitarian-based projects. Furthermore, the UNHCR could choose to
use repatriation as its primary strategy in alleviating refugee crises if voluntary funds are
delegated specifically to repatriation efforts. It is dependent on the donors’ intent for the money.
This explanation, as we have seen previously, is frequently mentioned throughout the literature,
but it may not be sufficient enough to stand on its own. Although top donors are state
governments, other top non-state donors may not have a specific political objective in mind
when donating. The UNHCR would still allocate voluntary funds as expressed by the non-state
government donors, but that would not directly influence the agency to favor repatriation over
humanitarian aid or vice versa when using the funds to alleviate refugee crises.
Alternately, the UNHCR could choose to administer humanitarian aid/relief efforts as its
primary strategy of aiding refugees when a refugee crisis experiences more press coverage and
media attention compared to other crises. Conversely, the UNHCR could prioritize repatriation
as its primary strategy in alleviating refugee crises when a refugee crisis receives a lower amount
of news coverage relative to other crises.
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Media Coverage
Some refugee crises receive more media coverage than others. Given that voluntary
donations can be allocated to General Programs or Special Projects, donors may choose to have
their funds be used for a particular crisis (via Special Projects) if they are more aware of the
crisis and are more informed on the state of the refugees in that particular emergency. Increasing
media attention of a refugee crisis may compel donors to contribute to humanitarian aid efforts to
help alleviate that crisis through a donation to Special Projects. Consequently, the UNHCR
would delegate those funds to that crisis. An opposite situation may also occur. The less often the
media covers a crisis, the more likely it is to be overlooked by donors and thus the UNHCR may
feel the need to put a swift end to the crisis via repatriation as its primary tactic so as to prioritize
other more “popular” refugee crises to appeal to donors. If this explanation is true, the UNHCR
should collaborate with other NGOs to ensure that refugee crises that are more “forgotten” than
others still receive sufficient media coverage to ensure that refugees receive the care that they
need.
Standard Crisis Timeline
Another explanation could be attributed to a standard timeline or process of the
UNHCR’s crisis response. The key driver behind the UNHCR’s decision-making, in this case, is
timing. The evolution of refugee crises can be separated into three loosely defined phases: 1) The
Emergency Response Phase; 2) The Response Plan Phase; and 3) The Exit or “Hand Over”
Phase. 6 The logic then, is as follows: the newer the refugee crisis, the more likely the UNHCR is
to administer humanitarian aid as its primary crisis response method. The longer a refugee crisis
lasts or the more protracted it is, the more likely the UNHCR will employ repatriation efforts as
6 For this thesis, I have named the phases explicitly. They vary in how they are referenced throughout the literature.
22
its primary crisis response method. Figure 2 briefly illustrates this process with the Indochinese
Refugee Crisis.
Figure 2. UNHCR Phases in Responding to the Indochinese Refugee Crisis
When a crisis hits, the UNHCR will respond immediately by providing humanitarian aid
to the refugees fleeing. This Emergency Response Phase will not involve any repatriation efforts
and will focus solely on addressing the immediate needs present through Quick Impact Projects
or other strategies. After some time has passed and the initial shock of the refugee crisis has
subsided, the UNHCR will then determine its next steps in the form of an action plan, such as the
“Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis.” The Response Plan Phase
identifies long term needs, logistics, sector objectives, indicators and targets, and organization
and funding requirements. Aid will be administered more systematically with intentions to meet
goals aligned with UNHCR durable solutions. Lastly, when a significant amount of time has
passed and it has been deemed safe for refugees to return to their country of origin, the UNHCR
will begin repatriation procedures and “hand over” the refugees back to their home country. This
last phase often contains many unknowns and researchers like Sarah Deardorff Miller criticize
the UNHCR for being unclear in their exit strategies (2019).
23
The Emergency Response Phase
1975: Vietnamese refugees fled when South Vietnam fell to communist forces.UNHCR camps and humanitarian aid
The Response Plan Phase
1979 Geneva Conference1989 Geneva Conference, Comprehensive Plan of Action
The Exit or “Hand Over”
Phase1995: 1,311,183 asylum seekers resettled, the rest were repatriated.
This explanation, although likely to hold true to some degree, does not account for all
other factors such as donor influence, media coverage, persecution type, and many others. The
timing itself cannot be the sole variable determining UNHCR responses.
Research Design and Data
Part one of the chapter focused on theoretical groundwork. This next part of the chapter
explains my research design and data collection methods.
The research design used a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and
quantitative data. Qualitatively, investigating two case studies on the Afghan and Rohingya
refugee crises can give detailed insights into the UNHCR’s differing responses to seemingly very
similar cases. By the same logic, performing thematic analyses on interviews of UNHCR staff,
think tank experts, and other refugee officials within the context of the case studies is an
effective way of categorizing responses and identifying patterns. By analyzing sets of funding
earmarks to the UNHCR for the Afghan and Rohingya refugee crises one can identify any larger,
noteworthy trends in the allocation of voluntary donor funds over time and to what arena
(General Programming or Special Projects or both).
Using a triangulation approach through qualitative and quantitative research together
helps to more accurately test the hypothesis and ensure validity. It can more accurately highlight
both a causal relationship between the sources of the persecution in refugee crises and UNHCR’s
decision-making processes, as well as UNHCR donation patterns that are more generalizable. In
terms of deriving patterns and themes, thematic analysis is a commonly used qualitative
approach to analyzing interview data. To that end, thematic analyses are helpful in further
determining what the UNHCR aims to do with its funding and what it has done, for numbers
24
alone cannot demonstrate the level of help that has been provided to the refugees as a result of
donations.
In the next section, my case study selection is specified. Then, the operationalization of
the dependent and independent variables is quantitatively expressed alongside the
operationalization of variables for the qualitative portion of the research.
Case Selection
The first section of the qualitative analysis investigates two case studies of refugee crises
in Afghanistan and Myanmar over a six-year period (2014-2019) consistent with UNHCR Global
Reports funding data. The second section consists of thematic analyses of interviews with public
officials from the UNHCR, think tank experts, and other officials on topics related to the Afghan
and Rohingya refugee crises and the UNHCR’s decision-making processes. When examining
each refugee crisis, Afghan refugees’ country of origin is Afghanistan, and Rohingya refugees’
country of origin is Myanmar. Pakistan hosts the largest number of Afghan refugees and
Bangladesh hosts the largest number of Rohingya refugees (Forced Displacement in 2017).
Through detailed case studies on UNHCR behavior toward Afghan and Rohingya refugees in
Pakistan and Bangladesh, numerous implications reveal themselves later in the thesis.
Cases were chosen based on specific criteria: length of refugee crises, geographic
location, number of refugees for both cases, and UNHCR attempts to alleviate the crises. Both
the Afghan and Rohingya crises have taken place for roughly the same amount of time, from the
late 1970s onward. The UNHCR defines protracted crises as “one[s] in which 25,000 or more
refugees from the same nationality have been in exile for five or more years in a given asylum
country” (Forced Displacement in 2017). Both cases fit this description. According to the
UNHCR 2017 Global Report, both crises have been identified as “major situations” in the Asia-
25
Pacific region. Conflict displaced more than 470,000 people in Afghanistan in 2017, affecting 31
out of 34 provinces. In 2017, Bangladesh hosted 655,000 Rohingya refugees and Bangladesh
hosted 1.4 million Afghan refugees (Forced Displacement in 2017). In Afghanistan, 470,000
were displaced due to conflict (Forced Displacement in 2017).
Although similar in relative geographic location, scale and length of the emergencies, and
prioritization by the UNHCR, initial quantitative trends suggest UNHCR-led solutions toward
these crises differ. Afghanistan and Myanmar also differ in respect to majority religion and
demographics, but both have similar GDP per capita calculations and religiosity plays an
important role in societal and governmental relations (IMF Report for Countries).
The UNHCR’s Regional Plan: Building Resilience and Solutions for Afghan Refugees in
South-West Asia (2017) highlights funding choices in regard to assisting Afghan refugees amidst
Afghanistan’s declining security situation from 2015 onward (see Figure 3).
26
Figure 3. Resilience and Solutions Measures for Inside Afghanistan—Budget
Source: United Nations. “UNHCR's Regional Plan – Building Resilience and Solutions for Afghan Refugees in South-West Asia – 1 July 2016 – 31 December 2017 (June 2016).” UNHCR. Accessed April 16, 2020.
This contrasts with the UNHCR’s Myanmar Refugee Emergency Response in
Bangladesh (2018) which shows funding needs for the Rohingya crisis are centered more on
basic needs and essential services (see Figure 4).
It can be asserted based on these initial figures that repatriation strategies are more readily
applied to Afghan refugees than Rohingya refugees, whereas humanitarian aid/relief efforts are
the more primary tactic in helping Rohingya refugees rather than Afghan refugees. Chapters 3
and 4 delve into more quantitative detail on funding changes for the crises.
Quantitative Analysis
The quantitative analysis concentrates on UNHCR funding from the period of 2014-2019
since that is the data that the UNHCR has made available via annual Global Reports. Through
quantitative methods, I look at funding changes for the Rohingya and Afghan refugee crises from
2014-2019 to determine if the UNHCR prioritizes repatriation-related efforts over humanitarian
27
Source: UNHCR. “UNHCR's Supplementary Appeal - Myanmar Refugee Emergency Response in Bangladesh.” Operational Portal. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/62739.
Figure 4. UNHCR's Supplementary Appeal - Myanmar Refugee Emergency—Budget
aid as a primary solution or vice versa. This is accomplished by locating what parts of the budget
and donations are allocated to whom and where. Furthermore, refugee population numbers and
flows are analyzed over the same period to indicate signs of repatriation or aid-based policy
implementation.
Allocation of Funds
The allocation of funds is determined by numerous divisions. The UNHCR describes the
process of determining a budget via its Emergency Handbook. Furthermore, the annual UNHCR
Global Reports provide budget and expenditure breakdowns in terms of earmarked and
unearmarked funds. Geographically, categories separate budget and expenditure data on regional
and individual country bases. Also, four pillars distinguish which types of forcibly displaced
people will receive funding. For the purposes of this thesis, Pillar 1: “Global refugee
programme” is the only pillar used in quantitative funding analysis since all other pillars pertain
to statelessness, reintegration, or IDP operations rather than the UNHCR’s typical refugee
mandate. Figure 5 shows the UNHCR Planning Framework in this regard.
28
Figure 5. UNHCR Planning Framework
Source: UNHCR. “Emergency Handbook.” Accessed March 27, 2019. https://emergency.unhcr.org/entry/257108/unhcr-operations-plan-in-emergencies.
When observing changes in UNHCR funding to determine the UNHCR’s strategies in
alleviating refugee crises, it is important to note whether the funding is earmarked or not, where
the donated funds originated from if unearmarked, and if there is a positive or negative
correlation between the amount of time a crisis has persisted and categorized funding. Funding is
reallocated on a quarterly basis along lines of earmarked, softly earmarked, or unearmarked
designations (Use of Unearmarked Funding 2017).
With specific regard to funding, several outcomes could result. Beginning with General
Programs, if there is a steady increase in this type of funding from 2014-2019, more services and
aid are being administered based on need as determined by the UNHCR and vice versa. Of these
funds, a breakdown of which countries are receiving more funds from General Programs, what
the funding will go towards, and changes in these funds over time can highlight the UNHCR’s
crisis alleviating priorities. The next step is to look to the persecution source of the refugee crisis
being investigated—either internal, external, or a combination of both.
This same process is repeated for Special Projects funds, except the funding is decided
upon by the donor. Of the funds donated to specific countries, a breakdown of what the funding
is going toward (repatriation efforts or more aid-based efforts) will signal the priorities of the
donors which, therefore, are the UNHCR’s crisis alleviating priorities since they have no
decision in the matter. The next step is to once again examine the persecution source.
Refugee Movements
The numbers of refugees moving to and from Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to and from
Bangladesh and Myanmar make up the second part of the quantitative analysis. The UNHCR’s
Global Reports for each refugee crisis break down the refugees into groupings based on those in
camps, those who voluntarily return to their host countries, and other categories. For
29
consistency’s sake, I analyze the movements of Afghan and Rohingya refugees during the same
donor period: 2014-2019, as available.
Qualitative Analysis
The qualitative analysis covers different components and contexts of the Rohingya and
Afghan refugee crises through primary and secondary research. I use interview responses on the
UNHCR as an institution and its decision-making in the Rohingya and Afghan refugee crises to
determine under what circumstances repatriation-related efforts are prioritized over humanitarian
aid as a primary crisis solution or vice versa. The role of persecution type and the source is
questioned within the crises and in general to test the Persecution-Source Theory.
Data Collection and Measurement
To measure the role of persecution sources in the Rohingya and Afghan case studies, I
conducted fifteen interviews. I spoke with individuals working at UNHCR and IOM
Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland in person. Questions were asked on a semi-structured basis
to identify the primary causes behind the UNHCR’s decisions to focus on either repatriation-
centered or humanitarian aid-centered efforts in refugee crises. They were also asked about the
Rohingya and Afghan Refugee Crises and the reasoning behind the UNHCR’s differing
responses to both.
I also interviewed think tank scholars in person from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, the Woodrow Wilson Center, and the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.
In terms of staff positions, I conducted interviews with the highest-ranking available scholars
who were willing to participate. Questions were asked on a semi-structured basis with the
purpose of obtaining alternate perspectives on the UNHCR’s decision-making processes toward
Rohingya and Afghan refugees.
30
Furthermore, I interviewed a U.S. State Department staffer, a former IOM official, and
numerous refugee consultants. In addition to the traditional semi-structured questions asked,
interviewees were asked to identify the reasons behind donation allocation and the motivations
that compel state governments to donate to some crises over others. Responses were then
evaluated based on key themes pertaining to repatriation, humanitarian aid, the UNHCR, and the
refugee crises discussed.
If interviewees used language expressing that the UNHCR’s primary response to a
refugee crisis is repatriation, its value on the first scale (Figure 1) will be greater than 1.5.
Similarly, if interviewees used language indicating that the UNHCR’s primary crisis response is
humanitarian aid, the value on the second scale will be greater than 1.5. Usage of secondary
sources directly from the UNHCR, UN System, NGOs, and media coverage supplement the
interview responses for a value on the scales.
Thematic Analysis
To measure and interpret interview responses, I used thematic analysis. Specifically, I
manually pulled elements or “chunks” from interview notes and identified, analyzed, and
reported themes, drawing from Braun and Clarke’s methodology from Using Thematic Analysis
in Psychology to test the persecution-source theory and hypothesis (2006). To determine what
counted as a theme, I read and reread the interview notes and transcripts, labeling the ideas
behind the data relevant to my research question by coding. Next, these codes were
systematically sorted into patterns or subcategories, and eventually main themes. Lastly, the
themes were interpreted. Figure 6 provides a visual of this process in more detail. With each
31
interview, based on the themes and codes, responses were assigned a numeric value on the scales
in Figure 1.7
Employing thematic analysis techniques allowed me to have flexibility in my project
while engaging in thorough and consistent methods to evaluate the interviews. I have
incorporated both inductive and deductive coding measures, as used by Dr. John Schulz in
evaluating interview data (Schulz 2012).
This chapter detailed the various aspects of the project’s research design. In the Theory
portion, my research question and chosen theoretical framework are specified. The Research
Design and Data part of this chapter illustrated the research methods, both qualitative and
quantitative, utilized to test my hypothesis. Chapters 3 and 4 applies the Persecution-Source
Theory and my research methods through two case studies—the Rohingya and Afghan refugee
crises.
Chapter 37 See Tables 3 and 6 for themes, definitions, and examples.
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Figure 6. Phases of Thematic Analysis
Case Study: Internal Persecution of the Rohingya
“We used to live in a big house beside a lake where my husband would go fishing. I was
very happy there. I have two children and another one on the way. Two weeks before the crisis, a
bomb exploded near our village. We knew the military would come to the village to find the
culprits, so the men went to the lake to hide. I have not seen my husband since.”8
Stories like this are not uncommon among the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. A history of
ethnic violence and persecution by the Myanmar government has stripped hundreds of thousands
of people of their homes, leaving them injured, traumatized, and separated from family members.
Now, into 2020, the Rohingya refugees face an uncertain future as the UNHCR continues to
work with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and others to bring an end to the crisis. This uncertainty
reminds us of the critical need to engage in research and analysis so families and individuals can
cease putting their lives on hold.
In the previous chapter, my research methods and theory were explained. This chapter
applies these methods and the Persecution-Source Theory to a case study analyzing the Rohingya
refugee crisis, with Myanmar as the country of origin and Bangladesh as the major host country
examined. The first section details the historical background of the crisis, Myanmar politics, and
the Rohingya refugee population in Bangladesh. Then, an overview of UNHCR actions taken to
address the crisis describes changes in funding, response strategies, and goals for providing
solutions to Rohingya refugees. The chapter concludes with an analysis portion, evaluating
UNHCR responses to the Rohingya refugee crisis and their consistency with the Persecution-
Source Theory.
Background
8 “Tales of Horror from Myanmar: ‘They Burned My Daughter Alive.’” CNN. Cable News Network. Accessed April 17, 2020. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/09/world/myanmar-rohingya-refugee-stories/.
33
The Rohingya refugee crisis is the result of systematic persecution by the Myanmar
government and its security forces against the Rohingya people, a Muslim minority group in a
predominantly Buddhist country. The Myanmar government refuses to recognize the Rohingya
and denies their citizenship, viewing them as illegal immigrants originally from Bangladesh.
Although anti-Muslim sentiment, civic unrest, and citizenship questions have characterized
modern Myanmar politics from the 1970s onward in multiple forced migration flows, the most
recent wave of Rohingya persecution can be broken up into two parts, displacing hundreds of
thousands of refugees within days. The first part started in October 2016 and ended in January
2017, and the second part began in August 2017 and is still ongoing.9
The crisis has displaced over 700,000 Rohingya, according to UNHCR data (Refugee
Emergency Response Bangladesh). Upwards of 600,000 Rohingya have been fleeing primarily
to Bangladesh, with many more still going to India, Thailand, Malaysia, and other parts of South
and Southeast Asia. The majority of the Rohingya have fled Myanmar’s Rakhine State to seek
refuge in Cox’s Bazar, home to the Kutupalong refugee camp, which currently hosts over
9 Shahid, Rudabeh (Atlantic Council—Nonresident Senior Fellow), in discussion with the author. December 7, 2019.
34
Figure 7. Myanmar and Bangladesh Map
Source: Al Jazeera. 2017.“Rohingya Crisis Explained in Maps.” Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2017/09/rohingya-crisis-explained-maps-170910140906580.html.
600,000 refugees (the world’s largest refugee camp) (Refugee Emergency Response
Bangladesh).
Before the International Court of Justice in early December 2019, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Myanmar’s State Counsellor (and Nobel Peace Prize laureate) claimed that war crimes “may
have been committed against Rohingya Muslims,” but she continues to deny any acts of
genocide by security forces (Mcpherson 2020). Furthermore, she believes that refugees are
exaggerating the abuses they faced; she suggested that UN investigators and human rights groups
continue to victimize Myanmar with “unsubstantiated narratives” (Mcpherson 2020).
Historical Context
Ethnic groups besides the Buddhist majority, the Bamar, have faced extensive sectarian
divisions and ethnic conflict within Myanmar. The Myanmar government recognizes 135 ethnic
groups, however, the Rohingya remain unrecognized which has resulted in statelessness and
legality issues. The Rohingya believe they are indigenous to western Myanmar and have an
ethnic affinity with Arabs, Mughals, and Portuguese.10 They attribute their descent to Arakan
people before and during British colonialism. The Arakan region (now known as the Rakhine
State) was classified as an “independent kingdom” between India and the Burmese Kingdoms of
Myanmar (Ghosh 2016).
Known as Burma at the time, Burmese were the rulers in power in Myanmar during the
1700s. It was at this time that the British East India Company took interest in land neighboring or
near India. The British fought against the Burmese in three Anglo-Burmese Wars. Ultimately,
Britain took over Burma in 1886 and reformed virtually all aspects of Burmese society,
economics, and politics (Majalla 2011). On January 4th, 1948 Burma declared independence from
Britain consistent with the Independence Act of 1947. The 1940s were an especially turbulent 10 Ibid.
35
time and a coup d’état led to General Ne Win’s takeover. Since this coup, the Burmese military
has played a “direct or indirect” role in controlling state functions.11
The Rohingya suffered from persecution as early as the 1940s. Known as the Tatmadaw,
Myanmar’s military began explicitly targeting the Rohingya in 1978. The Tatmadaw carried out
Operation Dragon King in the Rakhine State, in which they claimed to be targeting illegal
immigrants (Majalla 2011). Moe describes the nature of the Tatmadaw’s campaign against the
Rohingya: “[The Tatmadaw] carried out with impunity a ‘Four Cuts’ campaign against other
ethnic populations, cutting off food, funds, and information. The goal is to prevent recruits from
joining ethnic armed groups and quell aspirations of greater self-determination” (2017). A shift
in policy contributed to the persecution of the Rohingya, creating a legal space for more
discrimination and denial of Rohingya legitimacy (Ghosh 2016). The 1982 Citizenship Law
enacted by the Tatmadaw excluded the Rohingya as one of Myanmar’s 135 “national races.”
Through the law, citizenship is granted to those belonging to one of the national races
(Associated Press 2018). Associate and naturalized citizenship are the remaining standings a
person can have in Myanmar. Naturalized citizenship can only be given to those with one or
more parents with a type of Burmese citizenship and/or can provide “conclusive evidence” that
their parents moved to and lived in Burma prior to its colonial independence in 1948 (Ghosh
2016). Despite the Rohingya residing in the Rakhine State for multiple generations, the
Myanmar government refused and continues to refuse Rohingya citizenship, regarding them as
Bengali Muslims who are in the country illegally due to British partitioning. Although
originating from the 1982 law, this remains the government’s position to date.
More military violence took place in the 1990s, causing the Rohingya to flee on multiple
occasions en masse to Bangladesh and other South or Southeast Asian countries. After Aung San
11 Ibid.
36
Suu Kyi’s 1990 electoral victory, the military began persecuting the political opposition and
especially targeted Muslims in the Arakan region for their religion and support of the pro-
democracy movements. An estimated 250,000 refugees fled to Bangladesh, and their eventual
return was facilitated by the UNHCR in the early 2000s. This repatriation did not seem to last,
and the Rohingya were consistently uprooted by the Myanmar army (Majalla 2011). In 2006,
150,000 refugees from Myanmar were documented in camps in Thailand (Moe 2017).
A new constitution was drawn up by military forces in 2008. Now, Myanmar is governed
as a parliamentary system; 25% of the legislators are appointed by the military and the other 75%
are elected in general elections. The establishment of the National Human Rights Commission,
new labor laws, less press censorship, and movement toward a mixed economy convey the
beginning of Myanmar’s transition to democracy (Associated Press 2018). Occurring from 2011-
2015, the reforms also allowed for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi from arrest. Many are
skeptical of the reforms, and Myanmar’s intent to democratize, especially given the ill-treatment
of the Rohingya and other ethnic minority groups like the Karen. The assertion is that the
Burmese military can strengthen institutions more conducive to democracy as well as the
conditions that keep the Tatmadaw in control. Suu Kyi remains unable to control Myanmar
military forces, serving as a de facto leader.12
In light of the governmental restructuring, violence toward the Rohingya remained
commonplace. 2012 was also no stranger to systematic violence perpetrated by the state against
the Rohingya. The 2012 Rakhine riots between Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims led to
the displacement of nearly 100,000 Rohingya and caused the government to declare a state of
emergency. Additionally, the government continued to not recognize the Rohingya as one of the
country’s 130 national ethnic groups in 2012. Known as a civil war, the conflict between the
12 Ibid.
37
Rohingya and governmental/non-governmental groups worsened. Government crackdowns
targeting the Rohingya carried on into 2015. However, 2017 witnessed the largest influx of
Rohingya into Bangladesh, with 625,000 people fleeing by December 2017.
Described by members of the international community, the UN, and NGOs as ethnic
cleansing, the Tatmadaw used (and in previous insurrections have used) gang rape, forced labor,
indiscriminate killings, violence against civilians, and the burning/bulldozing of Rohingya
villages in the Rakhine State as methods of “replacing” the Rohingya and wiping any trace of
them from Myanmar. Despite witness accounts and Human Rights Watch mapping of the burned
and bulldozed Rohingya villages, the government denies any wrongdoing.13 In 2017, Myanmar
and Bangladesh signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to spur voluntary repatriation
of the Rohingya and cooperation on the situation, but critics pose that until there is a legal path to
citizenship created for the Rohingya people, they will remain in camps like Kutupalong in Cox’s
Bazar, Bangladesh (Darusman 2018).
Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh
Approximately 671,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are documented to have fled
targeted violence in Myanmar since August 2017. These refugees joined some 213,000 Rohingya
who were already in Bangladesh due to previous waves of displacement. Figure 8 shows how the
Rohingya refugee arrival rate in Bangladesh changed from 2017-2018.
Figure 8. Rohingya Refugee Arrival Trends Since Aug. 2017
13 Former IOM worker (Head of IOM Community Stabilization Unit) in discussion with the author. December 14, 2019.
38
In late August into early September alone, more than 80,000 Rohingya fled crossing the border
into Bangladesh. Numbers hovered near the 20-35,000 mark until later into September, when
entry into Bangladesh began to subside (besides some flare-ups). By the end of 2018, the total
Rohingya population in Cox’s Bazar District was close to 906,600 (UNHCR 2019). Refugees
have spontaneously settled in and around existing refugee communities in two main settlements,
Kutupalong and Nayapara, overstretching already-limited services and scarce resources.
According to the UNHCR, 75% of the Rohingya refugees who fled during the latest crisis
arrived in September 2017. Although the arrival rate significantly decreased into 2018, the
refugee influx created “the world’s most densely populated refugee settlement” (Rohingya
Refugee Crisis Explained).
Type of Persecution
The persecution Rohingya refugees have experienced and continue to experience for the
purposes of this thesis, using categories from the Persecution-Source Theory, is taken to be
internal persecution. Evidence from the 2019 UN Independent Factfinding Missions, NGO
reports, and personal accounts indicate that the Tatmadaw systematically drove out the
39
Rohingya. Although there is contestation as to whether the Tatmadaw’s raping, pillaging,
murdering, and burning of villages in the Rakhine state constitute genocide or ethnic cleansing, it
is clear that they instituted campaigns to kill thousands of Rohingya people and cover up the
deaths. In other words, the Rohingya are facing state-sponsored or induced persecution that
targets them for their ethnicity and hinders them from being legally recognized within
Myanmar’s borders.
Given the Tatmadaw’s mass human rights violations and the Myanmar government’s
exclusion of the Rohingya within its Citizenship Law, we can expect the UNHCR to use
humanitarian assistance as a primary crisis response for the Rohingya case. The UNHCR will
also devote a majority percentage of its General Projects and eligible Special Projects funds to
alleviating the crisis through humanitarian aid tactics from 2014-2019. Furthermore, an analysis
of quotes, interviews, and media coverage should point to the UNHCR focusing on humanitarian
aid-related donations to and aspects of the crisis. News stories would illustrate the urgency of the
situation through increased frequency and coverage on humanitarian aid. If the Persecution-
Source Theory holds, interviewees would indicate the UNHCR’s primary response to the
Rohingya crisis as humanitarian assistance, meaning a value on the first scale (Figure 1) will be
less than 1.5 and the value on the second scale will be greater than 1.5.
UNHCR Responses
For the purposes of this section, I focus on UNHCR responses beginning in 2017 onward
since the largest and most recent Rohingya exodus that took place heightened at that time. In the
initial weeks of the Rohingya refugee crisis’s 2017 emergency phase, the UNHCR airlifted more
than 1,500 metric tons of humanitarian aid to Bangladesh (Rohingya Refugee Crisis Timeline).
This aid consisted of blankets, plastic sheets, sleeping materials and tents, kitchen items, jerry
40
cans, and more (100 Days of Horror). Over 50,000 bamboo, rope, and tarpaulin shelters were
constructed to house the new refugees in Bangladesh. Humanitarian aid six months into the crisis
was expanded to include and call for natural disaster supplies to combat cyclones and monsoons,
such as poles, ropes, shelter-grade tarpaulins, sandbags, and tools (100 Days of Horror).
Interviews with former and current IOM officials highlighted “the Sphere Standards,”
which are baseline standards of humanitarian responses and a mechanism to hold humanitarian
actors accountable.14 The UNHCR uses these to standardize their responses by ensuring that
“human dignity and human rights at the basis of refugee protection are duly reflected in the
standards of care. Rather than focusing on available resources, the indicators will contribute to
move towards a Rights-Based Approach (RBA).”15 RBA provides the loose framework that takes
international human rights norms, standards, and principles and uses these to standardize
processes of humanitarian and development agencies. The UNHCR integrates human rights into
its operations through gender mainstreaming, capacity building, etc. in its protection planning
objectives and implementation of program activities to assist refugees.
In terms of the UNHCR Media Centre’s coverage of the crisis, there are numerous
observable trends. Firstly, leading up to the crisis, UNHCR articles about the Rohingya were
published at a frequency of about once per year from 2005 to 2016. In 2017, the number of news
stories increased exponentially; from January to August there was one story per month released.
September 2017 proved to be a turning point and peak: for that month alone, the UNHCR Media
Centre released ten Rohingya news stories with some published back-to-back (UNHCR Stories).
Now, about one story per month or two months focuses on the Rohingya, and the content has
14 Aplon, Jason, (IOM Transition and Recovery Division, Department of Operations and Emergencies Post Conflict/DDR Advisor) in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Grundy, Sam, (IOM Program Advisor, Transition and Recovery Division) in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Former IOM worker in discussion with the author. December 14, 2019. 15 Ibid.
41
generally deviated from needs and the situation in Bangladesh to include refugee stories,
progress on legal proceedings, and other topics (UNHCR Stories). Rohingya repatriation stories
have not been covered by UNHCR, many are humanitarian aid related or share refugees’ stories
and resilience.
Toward the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018, amid the UNHCR providing Rohingya
refugees with aid and services—consistent with the agency’s protection mandate—two fact-
finding missions sought to investigate the nature of the human rights abuses the Rohingya were
fleeing from in Myanmar. A coalition of 69 human rights NGOs appointed an Independent Fact-
Finding Mission team, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, urging for the
UN Security Council to respond to the humanitarian crisis and consider legal repercussions. The
second Independent Fact-Finding Mission 2018 Report from the Office of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) suggested the UN Security Council establish an ad
hoc international criminal tribunal or have proceedings go through the International Criminal
Court. Further recommendations reiterated support for repatriation without violating non-
refoulement, increased monitoring and reporting, and other measures (OHCHR, n.d.). The
OHCHR’s Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar submitted its report to the United
Nations Human Rights Council on September 12, 2018 and concluded that the Tatmadaw did
violate international law and principles of international humanitarian law (OHCHR, n.d.). This
report also described the nature of the Tatmadaw’s actions toward the Rohingya as “crimes
against humanity, genocide, and ethnic cleansing” (OHCHR, n.d.).
In March 2018, the UNHCR launched a Joint Response Plan (JRP) for the Rohingya
Humanitarian Crisis. The three sections of the plan include the nature of the crisis and its needs;
the agency’s response strategy along with its partners; and, within their response strategy,
42
each sector’s needs in addition to their own set strategies. The Response Strategy section
explains the UNHCR’s goals and initiatives (in order of priority/precedence) they plan to
undertake to address the crisis with respect to those most in need. Here, the UNHCR introduces
its Protection Framework (see Figure 9), guided by four strategic objectives: 1) Provide timely
life-saving assistance and protection, as well as improve the living conditions of Rohingya
refugees and affected host communities; 2) Ensure well-being and dignity of Rohingya refugees
and affected host communities; 3) Support environmentally sustainable solutions; and 4)
Confidence building and resilience of Rohingya refugees and affected host communities (2018
JRP for Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis). Since the first JRP in 2018, a 2019 iteration has been
published. Currently, a draft of the 2020 JRP is also available in the works (Dhaka Tribune
2019).
43
Figure 9. UNHCR 2018 Rohingya JRP Protection Framework’s Four Pillars
When comparing and contrasting the 2018 and 2019 JRPs, we can observe some notable
differences. In 2019, the UNHCR expresses shifting its focus toward increasing service quality
and the diversity of services (i.e. mental health services); scaling up protection-monitoring
programs; and increasing direct participation of refugee men, women, and youth through
committees. Additionally, there were three strategic objectives listed for 2019: 1) Collectively
deliver protection to refugee women, men, girls and boys; 2) Provide life-saving assistance to
affected populations; and 3) Foster social cohesion (2019 JRP for Rohingya Humanitarian
Crisis). According to the Dhaka Tribune, within the draft of the 2020 JRP readers will notice that
as the emergency period has slowed, aid sectors like the shelter component will require less
funding, signaling a potential reprioritization toward solutions, protection, and legal processes
(HumanitarianResponse 2017).
44
Source: ReliefWeb. 2018. “JRP for Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis: March - December 2018 - Bangladesh.” ReliefWeb. reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/jrp-rohingya-humanitarian-crisis-march-december-2018-0.
Coordination
Jacob Kurtzer explains that the UNHCR is often constrained politically by the refugee-
sending and refugee-receiving governments they work with.16 Furthermore, in an interview with
UNHCR Deputy Director of Resilience and Solutions, Mamadou Dian-Balde, reminds critics of
the UNHCR’s work that the agency was created by states.17 Thus, an important aspect of the
UNHCR’s response strategy and its ability to respond lies within coordination efforts between
major stakeholders, especially national governments.18 Beginning in 2017, the Government of
Bangladesh and other humanitarian organizations coordinated to provide aid to the Rohingya
refugees. Initially, Bangladesh showed solidarity with the Rohingya, but as the crisis evolved
views toward hosting more refugees shifted.19
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi and Bangladeshi Foreign Secretary
Md. Shahidul Haque signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in Geneva known as the
Arrangement on Return of Displaced Persons from Rakhine State. Regarding Myanmar, a similar
agreement was set up in early 2018. The tripartite MoU between the UNHCR, the United
Nations Development Programme and the Government of Myanmar that sought to create
appropriate conditions for safe, voluntary, and orderly repatriation of Rohingya refugees from
Bangladesh was extended for one year. However, numerous sources from the UN, NGOs, and
other governments agree that Myanmar has not done what is necessary to foster conditions
conducive for the return of the refugees (UN News 2018).20 Refugee returns at this time remain
16 Kurtzer, Jacob (CSIS Deputy Director and Senior Fellow—Humanitarian Agenda), in discussion with the author. December 4, 2020.17 Dian-Balde, Mamadou (UNHCR Deputy Director for Resilience and Solutions), in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020.18 Dian-Balde, Mamadou (UNHCR Deputy Director for Resilience and Solutions), in discussion with the author. January 2020. (Interviews of UNHCR Consultants by author, 2020)19 Shahid, Rudabeh, in discussion with the author. December 7, 2019; Former IOM worker, in discussion with the author. December 14, 2019.20 See also works by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International (more located in the References section).
45
stagnant and low, the UNHCR reports 95 refugees have voluntarily returned to Myanmar (UN
News 2018).
Besides coordination at the state level, the UNHCR has undergone restructuring in an
attempt to better service refugees. A most recent example is the agency’s decentralization of
regional offices and bureaus. For Asia and the Pacific, the new regional bureau and its offices are
located in Bangkok. Additionally, the UNHCR convened the first Global Refugee Forum in late
December 2019 to share overall best practices, encourage governments and other stakeholders to
make pledges, and provide a platform for refugees to share their stories among academics,
policymakers, and NGO workers.
UNHCR Funding for the Rohingya Refugee Crisis
Below are two tables, documenting changes in UNHCR funding toward initiatives in
Myanmar and Bangladesh respectfully. Table 1 illustrates Myanmar’s financials from 2014-2019
and Table 2 displays Bangladesh’s financials for the same period.
Table 1. UNHCR—Myanmar Financials
UNHCR Budget (in USD) UNHCR Expenditure (in USD)Year Basic
Needs Durable Solutions (repatriation)
Budget Total
Basic Needs
Durable Solutions(repatriation)
Expenditure Total
2014 39,865,482
3,708,203 68,108,703 6,056,284 630,446 21,525,219
2015 28,710,421
4,745,305 72,772,720 5,848,961 1,071,038 17,615,690
2016 17,796,118
12,039,879 56,212,579 5,562,733 697,807 17,128,649
2017 19,058,006
7,833,245 49,162,200 5,817,050 913,138 17,537,167
2018 14,875,491
2,399,530 46,116,560 4,869,882 465,547 16,688,276
46
201921 13,497,385
3,120,049 38,724,000
The data for Myanmar is representative of overall funding totals from the Pillar 1 (refugees)
category. Upon examining UNHCR funding for Myanmar for the period, there exist some trends.
The total budget determined overall has decreased essentially each year, and total expenditure
has seemingly plateaued around $17 million. Although the UNHCR has allocated various
amounts ranging from about $3 million to upwards of $12 million toward repatriation, the reality
is small fractions of total expenditure actually end up funding it. The basic needs portion of the
budget has also been mostly decreasing since 2014, but in expenditure, it is only slightly
decreasing in small increments. Efforts to use repatriation as a primary solution do not seem to
illustrate the funding story, most of the money (planned in a budget and the reality of
expenditure) tends to be used for humanitarian aid or other needs/capacity-building not included
under basic needs.
Table 2. UNHCR—Bangladesh Financials22
UNHCR Budget (in USD) UNHCR Expenditure (in USD)Year Basic
Needs Durable Solutions (repatriation)
Budget Total
Basic Needs
Durable Solutions(repatriation)
Expenditure Total
2014 12,306,018 4,240,243 7,534,7302015 5,859,101 15,184,305 7,576,7832016 13,667,947 7,284,0222017 67,596,216 49,606,7752018 220,442,812 159,895,165201923 223,467,75
7845,567 307,553,397
21 Note: UNHCR Expenditure funding data not available for 2019.22 Note: Bangladesh Financial information was not made readily available by the UNHCR and did not designate how much expenditure (if any) went to voluntary returns for the period observed. Other data besides budget totals and expenditure totals were not reported except in 2014 and 2015.23 Note: UNHCR Expenditure funding data not available for 2019.
47
Now turning to UNHCR funding for Bangladesh, patterns are more difficult to discern. The data
for Bangladesh is representative of overall funding totals from the Pillar 1 (refugees) category.
Firstly, the total budget determined overall has greatly increased from $12,306,018 in 2014 to
$307,553,397 in 2019. This is reflected in expenditure too, with $7,534,730 in 2014 to an
expenditure of $159,895,165 in 2018 (2019 expenditure data is not yet available). Unfortunately,
the UNHCR has not made all of its data publicly accessible, so funding toward repatriation and
basic needs for Bangladesh cannot be determined. However, given the large increase in overall
budget and expenditure, one could assert that these areas would also increase in funding.
Analysis
My analysis revealed that all interview participants shared aspects of six themes. Table 3
highlights these themes, providing definitions and examples. The data suggests that the UNHCR
will respond similarly to refugee crises during its “Emergency Phase,” regardless of whether
what generated the refugee crisis was internal persecution, external persecution, or mixed (see
Figure 2). However, once crises are more protracted, the root causes of the refugee flow or the
types of persecution matter and greatly impact the agency’s abilities to find solutions for those
refugees. Regarding the Rohingya, the UNHCR is unable to select repatriation as a primary long-
term crisis response tactic or feasible durable solution. This is the case for a multitude of reasons.
Taking the theme Constraints, the UNHCR faces obstacles assisting the Rohingya
through humanitarian aid measures. Although the Bangladesh government has taken in hundreds
of thousands of refugees fleeing from Myanmar, they are also a refugee-sending country and
they have their own domestic challenges that make the government more difficult to work with.
Another constraint that hinders the UNHCR’s ability to provide the Rohingya refugees with
48
solutions is that of the country’s economics and a need for aid for its people alongside the
Rohingya. Arguably the most impactful constraints deliberately cited by respondents were the
Myanmar government’s lack of political will to address the Tatmadaw’s crimes against
humanity. Without finding a way to reform relations toward the Rohingya legally (such as
through citizenship) and socially with the end of these grave human rights violations/the
destroying of Rohingya villages in Rakhine, repatriation as a solution is seemingly impossible.
Table 3. Thematic Analysis of Interviews Themes, Descriptions, and Examples; Rohingya Case.
Theme Description ExampleReturn Likelihood; conditions needed;
and popularity of safe, dignified, orderly, and voluntary returns among refugees and actors
According to an IOM Official, internal conflict or inter-ethnic conflict makes it “incredibly more difficult to return refugees” (2020).24
Constraints Obstacles in refugee assistance and partnerships between stakeholders
“It is complicated to forsee any durable solutions for the Rohingya. Bangladesh has limited resources and a huge population, making it hard to integrate; international support not to the scale that is needed for integration to occur… None of the solutions are there.”25
Politics How national policies affect the UN Refugee Agency
“UNCHR hates being involved in political stuff. Humanitarians don’t want to admit they’re involved in political work… but then they have to make political calculations all the time.”26
Root Causes What generated a refugee flow Ethnic conflict makes things complicated; causes are more linked to solution responses rather than immediate responses.27
Budget Monetary contributions and their impact on UNHCR operations
“The donors listen to the UN… it’s very different in the humanitarian world, in the political world, in the development world. It’s really where the UN system works best.”28
24 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020. 25 Elie, Jerome, (ICVA Senior Policy Officer for Forced Displacement), in discussion with the author. January 9, 2020.26 Interview with former IOM worker, December 14, 2019.27 Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 7, 202028 Interview with former IOM worker, December 14, 2019.
49
Solutions Durable solutions (repatriation, reintegration, and resettlement) and their likelihood
“Response determinations are impacted by other factors, but for durable solutions the nature of the displacement matters more.”29
The Politics theme can thus be thought of as a subset for this case study—either as a type
of constraint, on finding solutions budgetarily and otherwise, an innate part of the return process,
or the dynamics of the UNHCR’s work with Myanmar and Bangladesh no matter how neutral
they try to appear. Essentially, the UNHCR is: a) unable to assist Bangladesh in returning
Rohingya refugees to Myanmar because of the nature of the displacement and its politics; b)
unable to resettle the Rohingya in other countries due to their ethnicity and a lack of willingness
by the international community; and c) cannot reintegrate the Rohingya in Bangladesh since they
are viewed as “temporary refugees.” This leaves little to no room for durable solutions, making
humanitarian aid continuation the agency’s only option, at least for the time being. Additionally,
the U.S. “typically doesn’t earmark funds for the [UNHCR] budget,” which highlights that the
hypothesis in which the UNHCR is a “pawn” of large state donors is not true for each crisis, if
any.30 If state influence from top donors readily impacted the UNHCR’s work for this crisis,
perhaps the U.S. would be earmarking its funds to exert influence.
The novel combination of responses by all interviewees, UNHCR funding data of the
Rohingya crisis, and steps taken by the UNHCR suggest that the UNHCR uses humanitarian aid
as a majority response rather than repatriation or other solutions. In this case, the Persecution-
Source Theory held against alternative explanations in the Rohingya case: to a significant extent,
the internal persecution faced by the Rohingya is now an obstacle in coming up with a solution
to alleviate the crisis. As interviewees have described, when the root causes of a crisis are
29 Kurtzer, Jacob (CSIS Deputy Director and Senior Fellow—Humanitarian Agenda), in discussion with the author. December 4, 2020.30 Sultan-Khan, Athar, (UNHCR Special Advisor to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees), in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.
50
inherently political and require major policy reform by the country of origin, ways of alleviating
or working on solutions to a crisis are minimized.31 Figure 10 displays where the Rohingya crisis
falls on the UNHCR Response scales. When averaging the values assigned to each interviewee
along with budget/expenditure considerations and UNHCR actions to date, the UNHCR’s use of
humanitarian aid as a response has a value of 2.3.32 For use of repatriation as a response toward
the Rohingya crisis, the value is 0.7, indicating that the UNHCR has not been able to begin
successful, orderly return operations of Rohingya refugees nor does it plan to in the immediate
term.33
Figure 10. UNHCR Response to Rohingya Refugee Crisis Scale
The Rohingya case study illustrates some consistency with the Persecution-Source
Theory. Since constraints are placed on the UNHCR’s work as a result of the root causes of the
Rohingya crisis—which is classified as internal persecution—the UNHCR is unable to repatriate
31 Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 6, 2020. Kurtzer, Jacob, in discussion with the author. December 4, 2019. Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.32 Average of interview responses’ numerical values, taking into account other information from the Rohingya case study. See Appendix for assigned numerical values per interview.33 Average of interview responses’ numerical values, taking into account other information from the Rohingya case study. See Appendix for assigned numerical values per interview.
51
Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar. We can conclude that the ethnic cleansing and internal,
state-led persecution which generated the Rohingya refugee crisis now influences the UNHCR’s
responses and abilities to assist the Rohingya in Bangladesh. However, many interviewees
stressed the importance of timing as another important factor. Had this analysis focused solely on
the agency’s responses in 2017 alone, the results may be different since the most recent influx of
Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh required extensive UNHCR emergency response and
humanitarian aid to assist the hundreds of thousands of new refugees in Cox’s Bazaar.
Many interviewees discussed the UNHCR’s operations under constraints by voluntary
donations. In varying levels of enthusiasm, responses conveyed that strong donors and
earmarked funding alone cannot make up the majority of pressures exerted onto the agency.
Some found the UNHCR to be less constrained by its budget and expenditure as opposed to other
UN agencies or organizations, like the IOM.34 Others described the agency’s expertise and
mission to be respected by donors, claiming that they listen to the UNHCR rather than command
it.35 UNHCR officials also expressed that the funding model does not impede their ability to
assist refugees, although some “may be biased.”36 Dian-Balde explains that he does not think he
is “at the mercy of the governments,” when conducting his work. “It isn’t just money that is
influential, smaller governments that host larger percentages of refugees per capita are important
too.”37
News coverage and attention directed toward crises are important, but those interviewed
whom themselves do not work for the UNHCR merely hypothesize how influential this is.
34 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Grundy, Sam, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Raiman, Daniela (UNHCR Senior Policy Officer and Global CCCM Cluster Coordinator), in discussion with the author. January 9, 2020; Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.35 Ibid; Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Kugelman, Michael, in discussion with the author. December 11, 2019.36 Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020.37 Ibid.
52
According to Kugelman and Aplon, the UNHCR does an effective job of addressing refugee
needs, even in places like Chad which remains virtually absent within media coverage.38 Aplon
and Grundy also point out that, when looking at the duration of a protracted crisis and the
potential for media fatigue it really depends on the political situation. “If there are gross human
rights violations… the crisis often becomes weighted. This is a different media character, [the
crisis] will get a lot of attention. However, with protracted crises, there is a precipitous drop-
off.”39
In terms of timing, the longer a refugee crisis lasts or the more protracted it is, there is
uncertainty if the UNHCR will employ repatriation efforts as its primary crisis response
method.40 UNHCR officials strongly contended that this was not the case and that it is dependent
on the will of the refugees. In the case of the Rohingya, there is almost no desire to return to
Myanmar.41 Sultan-Khan explains that the parameters for the UN Refugee Agency were clear
against the backdrop of the Cold War, “later on, of course, it got more complicated. That was
when we started to get involved with internally displaced people.”42 His response signals back to
the idea that the nature of conflicts led to more complex displacements and political situations
for the UNHCR to respond to, durable solutions will look different in these cases if they are an
option at all. Jerome Elie responded similarly, first detailing the difference between normal
refugee status determination (RSD) processes versus large group RSD (which happens in the
Rohingya case, they are considered prima facie) and then reviews each of the durable solutions 38 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Kugelman, Michael, in discussion with the author. December 11, 2019.39 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 7, 2020; Grundy, Sam, in discussion with the author. January 7, 202040 Independent Refugee Consultant, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020; Elie, Jerome, in discussion with the author. January 9, 2020; OCHA Consultant, in discussion with the author. January 5, 2020; UNHCR Associate Legal Officer, in discussion with the author. January 6, 2020; U.S. State Dept. official, in discussion with the author. December 28, 2019. 41 Raiman, Daniela, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020; Shahid, Rudabeh, in discussion with the author. December 7, 2019.42 Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.
53
for the Rohingya in Bangladesh. He finds that “none of the solutions are there,” and in regard to
repatriation this cannot take place since “there is no accountability for what has been done.”43
Sultan-Khan provides a beacon of hope. He says that despite the constraints placed on the
agency to work toward durable solutions, the High Commissioner for Refugees has many strong
partnerships: “…for example, Gabon or Cape Verde took the lead on the Organization of Islamic
Countries’ response toward Rohingya refugees. This response is critical when the UNHCR can’t
speak or advocate for refugees. It makes the work difficult, but UNHCR can still practice
advocacy and be a voice for the ‘voiceless.’”44
This chapter examined the Rohingya refugee crisis as a case study of internal persecution,
charting the forced displacement’s background and UNHCR responses to it. Chapter 4
investigates the Afghan refugee crisis and external persecution using a similar framework.
43 Elie, Jerome, in discussion with the author. January 9, 2020.44 Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.
54
Chapter 4
Case Study: Afghan Refugees and External Persecution
“I am sick, in eyes and body, so I want to go home to Afghanistan.”45
The Afghan refugee crisis just experienced its 40th anniversary of the Soviet invasion.
The protracted nature of the crisis, along with the numerous actors involved in conflicts within
and against Afghanistan has made it a complex case. The UNHCR faces many obstacles in
assisting the Afghan refugees in finding long-term solutions, and the Pakistan government is
pushing for more repatriation initiatives despite a deteriorating and unstable security situation
within Afghan borders. Politics aside, it is vital that all actors in the refugee regime do not forget
the suffering and hardship the Afghan refugees have endured for multiple generations.
The last chapter used a case study to investigate the Rohingya refugee crisis and its
implications under the Persecution-Source Theory. Similarly, this chapter examines the Afghan
refugee crisis, with Afghanistan as the country of origin and Pakistan as the host country of
focus. The first section delves into the historical background of the crisis, Afghan politics and
contributing factors to the crisis, and the Afghan refugee population in Pakistan. The next section
establishes a brief snapshot of UNHCR actions taken to address the crisis, particularly those
regarding funding, response strategies, and potential solutions for Afghan refugees. Lastly, this
chapter concludes by analyzing the UNHCR’s responses to the Afghan refugee crisis and their
significance under the Persecution-Source Theory.
Background
45 United Nations. n.d. “Afghan Refugees Share Hopes and Fears with UN Refugee and Relief Chiefs.” UNHCR. Accessed April 16, 2020. https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/latest/2018/9/5b940bf24/afghan-refugees-share-hopes-fears-un-refugee-relief-chiefs.html.
55
The Afghan refugee crisis began due to the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979-1989. Four
main “waves” of forced displacement or exoduses of Afghan refugees have contributed to the
crisis as we know it today. The first wave occurred during the war when the Soviets initially
invaded (1979–1989), the second was due to the Afghan Civil War (1992–96), immediately
following was displacement as a result of Taliban Rule (1996–2001), and lastly the ongoing War
in Afghanistan (2001–present) has continued to cause Afghan refugees to flee. According to the
UNHCR’s 2018 Global Report, there are 2.5 million registered refugees from Afghanistan, with
most having fled to Pakistan and Iran (UNHCR 2019).
The UNHCR’s most recent data indicates there are currently 1.4 million Afghan refugees
in Pakistan (UNHCR 2019). Afghan refugees make up the largest protracted refugee population
in Asia and the second-largest refugee population following the Syrian refugees (UNHCR 2019).
56
Figure 11. Map of Afghanistan and Refugee Movements
Source: ReliefWeb. Afghanistan Multi-Year Protection and Solutions Strategy (2019-2021) – Afghanistan. ReliefWeb. reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-multi-year-protection-and-solutions-strategy-2019-2021).
Afghanistan remains unstable, with some Afghan states being more dangerous than others. This,
combined with tensioned relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, has made finding
solutions to the Afghan crisis especially difficult. Figure 11 highlights this complexity through a
map of Afghanistan and the movements of refugees from across the Durand line (the
Afghanistan and Pakistan border).
Historical Context
Afghan migration to Pakistan dates back to the 10th century (Ghufran 2008). After the
Second Anglo-Afghan War, the Pakistan-Afghanistan border (the Durand Line) was lineated
under British India’s Mortimer Durand influence. In 1947, political interference from British
India in Afghanistan ended. With Pakistan now in the picture, the Pashtun and Baloch tribes
found themselves divided (Ghufran 2008). However, outside influence and interference by
European countries did not end with Britain. Soon, the Soviet Union became more closely
involved with Afghan affairs.
The Soviet Union supported the Afghan Communist government against anti-Communist
Muslim guerillas throughout the Soviet-Afghan War. Afghanistan’s government in 1978 with
Mohammad Daud Khan as president was overthrown, leading to Nur Mohammad Taraki’s rule.
Relations with the USSR at this time grew stronger, despite a lack of popularity by the greater
Afghan public. The USSR initiated land and social reforms, to the dismay of opposition groups.
Any dissent against these reforms resulted in intense persecution from the Soviets (Sultana
2011). The Mujahideen (a collective of Islamic groups) retaliated and led insurgencies against
the Soviets, leading to an invasion by Soviet forces on December 24, 1979. The invasion
removed then President of the People’s faction, Hafizullah Amin. The U.S. supported
Mujahideen, which helped to spread civic unrest across Afghanistan (Tober 2007).
57
The Soviets’ influence, although still present, gradually declined in the 1980s. Much of
the persecution was left for the Afghan army to commit against dissenting civilians. The Soviets
sought to target the Mujahideen by “depopulating” rural areas and killing larger numbers of
civilians.46 These initiatives forcibly displaced millions of Afghans. In 1981, there were 1.5
million Afghan refugees, by 1982 roughly 2.8 million Afghans fled to neighboring Pakistan
(Ghufran 2008). 1986 noticed a peak, the number of Afghan refugees had risen to nearly five
million, with the majority of the refugees based in Pakistan (Khan 2017, 11). Most of the Afghan
refugees that came to Pakistan were ethnic Pashtuns, but Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras were
ethnic groups also represented. It is estimated that during the invasion, there were more than six
million Afghan refugees (Khan, 8).
The conflict further evolved into three periods of Afghan civil war, followed by the
ongoing war in Afghanistan. The first of which was a continuation of the Soviet-Afghan War,
excluding the Soviets from 1989-1992. Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union supported opposing
sides of the civil war as before, but the Afghan army was able to fight off the Mujahideen during
this time (Safri 2011). This was short-lived though; the Afghan government fell in 1992 when
President Mohammad Najibullah stepped down and Mujahideen groups took over Kabul. The
second civil war (1992-1996) took place between opposing Mujahideen rebel groups. Human
Rights Watch claims that there were five different Mujahideen armies or groups contributing to
the extensive damage of Kabul from 1992-1995 (Human Rights Watch 2001). The city’s
population subsequently decreased from 2 million to roughly 500,000 (Human Rights Watch
2001).
46 Kugelman, Michael (Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center), in discussion with the author. December 2019.
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During this period in the 1990s, international funding for Afghan humanitarian aid began
decreasing. Consequently, the UNCHR launched an “encashment” program to encourage
voluntary repatriation from Pakistan to Afghanistan in tandem with Pakistani calls for increased
voluntary return (Khan 2017, 11). However, in 1994 the Taliban (an extremist Islamic group
originating from and believed to be backed by Pakistan) began taking over Afghan cities and
provinces. By 1995, the Taliban controlled twelve Afghan provinces.47 Despite the merging of
groups and the formation of new alliances from various Mujahideen groups, the Taliban secured
control over southern, eastern, and western Afghanistan. They sealed their official takeover of
the country by toppling over Kabul in September 1996, establishing the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan, marking the third period of Afghan civil war creating mass displacement. Tens of
thousands died from the wartime atrocities and bombings (Human Rights Watch 2001). As a
result, Afghanistan accepted refugee returns and witnessed more displacement. After the Taliban
came to power, humanitarian aid declined again, forcing more Afghans to cross into Pakistan
(Khan 2017, 3). A Human Rights Watch report describes the series of Taliban massacres against
civilians from 1996-2001. According to the report, the Taliban especially targeted Shia or Hazara
Muslims (2001).
After the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, repatriation initiatives began again.
From 2002 to 2015, over 3.8 million Afghans returned to Afghanistan with assistance from the
UNHCR (Ahmadi and Lakhani 2016, 1). It is worth mentioning that estimates of Afghan
refugees as they have moved between Afghanistan and Pakistan may be largely inaccurate due to
numbers of unregistered Afghan refugees resulting from an “unregulated and unmonitored
system” in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border (Ahmadi and Lakhani, 1). This system has subjected
Pakistan to large-scale movements, trafficking of drugs and arms, and militant entry originating
47 Interview with former IOM worker, December 2019.
59
from Afghanistan—which made the Afghan refugee situation a protracted political, security, and
economic issue.48
There was a spike in returns from Pakistan in early 2015 following the attack on a
military school in Peshawar in December 2014. Actions by Pakistani security forces and local
authorities continue to push refugees to return. During the first ten months of 2015, Pakistan
deported 20,000 undocumented Afghan refugees and reported nearly 96,000 spontaneous returns
of undocumented refugees (Ahmadi and Lakhani 2016, 3).
Afghan Refugees in Pakistan
Historically, the Afghan refugees in Pakistan were not restricted to the refugee camps and
could experience more mobility compared to refugees in other host countries (Khan 2017, 15).
They moved around freely throughout the country where they were allowed to work, acquire
education, rent houses, and travel freely within Pakistan like other Pakistani citizens.49 As the
crisis grew more protracted, some Afghan refugees moved from camps to residential
neighborhoods, integrating into urban life in Pakistan. However, despite successful cases of
integration, Pakistan is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, meaning Afghan
refugees cannot access formal education opportunities, to open a bank account, formally work, or
buy property. Moreover, the longevity of the instability in Afghanistan has exacerbated worsened
relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan; family units have formed in Pakistan over multiple
generations making it difficult to repatriate Afghan refugees.50 In sum, “the longer it takes, the
more difficult it [assisting Afghan refugees] becomes.”51
48 Aplon, Jason (Transition and Recovery Division Post Conflict/DDR Advisor, IOM), in discussion with the author. December 2019.49 Ibid.50 Interview with former IOM worker, December 14, 2019.51 Sultan-Khan, Athar (Special Advisor to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Executive Office of the UNHCR), in discussion with the author. January 8, 2020.
60
Approximately 1,420,673 million Afghan refugees have fled to Pakistan as of 2019 data.
In total, the different displacements of Afghan refugees have resulted in 2,371,815 registered
according to 2019 statistics (UNHCR Global Focus: Populations 2019). Despite Pakistan being
adamant about repatriation, the number of refugees fleeing to Pakistan is increasing. UNHCR
data indicates that in Pakistan, 1,352,560 refugees were registered in 2016. In 2017, refugee
numbers increased to 1,393,143, and in 2018 those registered reached 1,404,019 (UNHCR
Global Focus: Populations 2019). On the other end, rates of repatriation have been markedly
high prior to 2016. Figure 12 shows how the Afghan refugee repatriation rate changed from
2009-2016.
The graph indicates minimal changes from 2009-2015. However, 2016 witnessed high fatalities
as a result of security operations in Afghanistan against the Taliban. 383,951 registered refugees
voluntarily repatriated to Afghanistan in 2016. In 2017, this decreased to 60,545, and in 2018
smaller still: 16,220 (UNHCR Global Focus: Populations 2019).
61
Figure 12. Afghan Repatriation Trends Since 2009
Source: Chaudhry, Hufsa. 2017. “HRW Report Accuses UNHCR of Inaction over 'Forced Repatriation' of Afghans.” Dawn.com, Feb. 13, 2017, www.dawn.com/news/1314348.
These numbers can be attributed to a response to security deterioration in Afghanistan. In
2018, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan recorded the highest amount of
civilian deaths, which also includes the highest ever recorded statistic of children killed in the
conflict (Amnesty International 2019). 11,000 casualties were reported, including 3,804 deaths
and 7,189 injured (Amnesty International 2019). The “Analysing Peace and Quantifying Its
Economic Value” report by the Institute for Peace and Economics claimed Afghanistan is the
world’s “least peaceful” country, replacing Syria (2019). Unsurprisingly, the numbers of those
successfully repatriated has decreased.
Type of Persecution
Using classifications from the Persecution-Source Theory, the persecution Afghan
refugees have experienced and continue to experience for the purposes of this thesis is taken to
be external persecution. In other words, the Afghan refugees have fallen victim to violence as a
result of an inter-state conflict (the Afghan-Soviet War) and/or persecution from non-state actors
(the Taliban).
Given increasing negotiations with the Taliban, greater calls for repatriation by Pakistan
and Iran, the inconsistency of the violence stemming from military operations, we can expect the
UNHCR to use repatriation as a primary crisis response for the Afghan case. The UNHCR will
also devote large percentages of its General Projects and eligible Special Projects funds to
alleviating the crisis through voluntary return funding from 2014-2019. Furthermore, an analysis
of quotes, interviews, and media coverage should point to the UNHCR focusing on return-related
donations to and aspects of the crisis. News stories would illustrate coverage on repatriation
initiatives, and there would be fewer articles published (since media coverage tends to focus on
the beginning of a crisis). If the Persecution-Source Theory holds, interviewees would indicate
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the UNHCR’s primary response to the Afghan crisis as repatriation, meaning a value on the first
scale (Figure 1) will be greater than 1.5 and the value on the second scale will be less than 1.5.
UNHCR Responses
Consistent with the methodology used in the Rohingya case, I focus primarily on
UNHCR responses beginning in 2016 onward since that is when the agency released its most
recent regional plan: Building Resilience and Solutions for Afghan Refugees in South-West Asia.
Additionally, the 2016 Repatriation of Afghan Refugees from Pakistan Supplementary Appeal
asking for increased funds to meet financial requirements for the Regional Plan to adjust for
projected returns of Afghan refugees of up to 221,000. The Appeal details a continued focus on
voluntary and dignified returns of Afghan refugees, their monitoring and advocacy, and payment
of repatriation grants as financial support of integration/reintegration. Additionally, I examine
coordination between the UNHCR, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other relevant actors from 2014
onward (consistent with funding data provided for the 2014-2019 period).
In terms of the UNHCR Media Centre’s coverage of Afghan refugees and their safety,
there are numerous observable trends. UNHCR articles about the Afghan refugees were
published quite frequently in 2002 and 2003, with a dip around 2013 (stories were published
once per year or less). They maintained this plateau until 2015. Here, the number of news stories
began to steadily increase; five stories were released in 2015 with some focus on repatriation of
51,000+ Afghan refugees from Pakistan and the “future of Afghan refugees” (UNHCR Stories).
This trend did not carry on into 2016, however. The only story of that year focused on the
UNHCR and its funding set aside for 60,000 returnees (UNHCR Stories). 2017 and 2018 saw
three and four stories respectively, whereas 2019 only had one story published. Although articles
and news stories have varied across years, consistent topics discussed include the status of the
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UNHCR assisting with voluntary returns of Afghan refugees, Afghan refugees expressing their
desire to return to Afghanistan, the future of Afghan refugees, and other solutions-based stories.
Humanitarian aid has not been discussed at length, rather conditions of camps and the Afghan
refugees’ experiences are more touched upon (UNHCR Stories).
Although the attention placed on the voluntary return of Afghan refugees has ebbed and
flowed depending on the year and UNHCR initiatives, NGOs and governments point out the lack
of safety and stability among government forces and the Taliban within Afghanistan. In
December 2018, a UNICEF report found that from January to September of 2018, five thousand
children were killed or injured in Afghanistan (Radio Liberty 2018). Human Rights Watch
claims more than 10,000 civilians were killed or wounded during 2018, with one third being
children. Most recently, on March 5th, 2020, ICC judges authorized an investigation into war
crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed by the Afghan government, the
Taliban, American troops, and U.S. foreign intelligence operatives. This builds upon reports of
attacks in urban areas by insurgents, airstrikes and night raids by the U.S. and Afghan forces
causing many civilian casualties, and the consideration of the Afghanistan Independent Human
Rights Commission calling the Taliban’s “terrorism against the Afghan civilian population” a
war crime (Afghanistan Analysts Network 2020). These war crimes by the Taliban include
killing teachers, abducting aid workers, and burning school buildings (Afghanistan Analysts
Network 2020).
There was a spike in returns from Pakistan in early 2015 following the attack on a
military school in Peshawar in December 2014, and actions by Pakistani security forces and local
authorities continue to push refugees to return. During the first ten months of 2015, Pakistan
deported 20,000 undocumented Afghan refugees and reported nearly 96,000 spontaneous returns
64
of undocumented refugees. As a result, under the 20-point National Action Plan, the government
devised a policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees. The goal was to register Afghan
nationals by the end of 2015 (Khan 2017, 55-56). Border clashes took place in June 2016 which
further influenced Pakistan’s refugee policy. Pakistan then enforced new border rules, requiring
and checking for valid and legal travel documents for all Afghans entering Pakistan, even for
those who commute to Pakistan daily for work or schooling.
Coordination
Coordination between the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the UNHCR
(namely in the form of a Tripartite Agreement on Voluntary Repatriation) has led to a variety of
agreements, strategies, and frameworks that have shaped responses to the protracted crisis.
Beginning with Pakistan, the government adopted the Afghan Management and Repatriation
Strategy to identify and implement durable solutions for Afghan refugees. Since the situation in
Afghanistan continues to deteriorate, extensions on the dates Pakistan agreed to host Afghan
refugees until were repeated as interim measures. A new policy toward the Afghan refugees
(approved in 2013) extended Proof of Registration (PoR) cards initiatives and the Tripartite
Agreement on Voluntary Repatriation until the end of 2015. Additionally, new priorities
manifested in the “National Policy on Afghan Refugees,” which formed in relation to the
Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR). Now in its 8th year, the SSAR aims to facilitate
dialogue, coordinate responses, and increase consensus-building and partnerships for the Afghan
refugee situation. It tasks the Government of Afghanistan incorporating SSAR’s objectives into
national policy (UNHCR International Conference 2020). It also aims to provide guidance on
safe and dignified voluntary repatriation, “sustainable reintegration” inside Afghanistan, and host
community aid.
65
In collaboration with NGOs and other UN actors, the UNHCR is working to provide
refugees with solutions and humanitarian aid as described in Afghanistan: 2017 Humanitarian
Response Plan (HRP) and its 2018 iteration (ReliefWeb, n.d.). The HRP houses an overall
Country Strategy (involving work between Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and other actors) and
Operational Response Plans, which are broken down into different humanitarian clusters (ex.
emergency shelter & non-food items, health, and food security & agriculture). One specific
Operational Response Plan—the “Refugee & returnee response plan”—is led by the UNHCR
(Humanitarian Response Annual Review 2017). The SSAR continues to serve as the key
framework for the Afghan refugee crisis.
According to Pakistan Radio, the UNHCR anticipates returning 60,000 refugees to
Afghanistan. Repatriation efforts are to resume, despite the security challenges Afghanistan still
faces.52 It is too early to tell how peace talks with the Taliban and will affect the UNHCR as they
continue to assist the Afghan refugees.
UNHCR Funding for the Afghan Refugee Crisis
Below are two tables, documenting changes in UNHCR funding toward initiatives in
Afghanistan and Pakistan respectfully. Table 4 illustrates Afghanistan’s financials from 2014-
2019 and Table 5 displays Pakistan’s financials for the same period. The data for Afghanistan is
representative of overall funding totals from the Pillar 1 (refugees) category.
The UNHCR funding for Afghanistan, despite a large fluctuation in 2016 for all
categories, has some mild trends. The total budget determined overall has decreased each year
(except 2016), and total expenditure has varied slightly above or below $70,000,000. Money in
52 Interview with UNHCR consultant, January 2020.
66
the budget allocated toward basic needs has varied year by year, but not as much in expenditure,
which has remained around $20,000,000.
Table 4. UNHCR—Afghanistan Financials
UNHCR Budget (in USD) UNHCR Expenditure (in USD)Year Basic
Needs Durable Solutions (repatriation)
Budget Total
Basic Needs
Durable Solutions(repatriation)
Expenditure Total
2014 58,102,488 42,171,904 151,970,856 20,954,576 10,300,458 64,259,4622015 40,487,989 46,714,886 150,643,886 18,419,254 29,772,827 70,354,7712016 54,586,824 30,402,789 259,233,865 N/A N/A 198,000,000*2017 21,465,461 59,832,802 137,626,889 19,120,417 28,729,550 70,006,6982018 24,514,625 22,971,511 125,834,134 23,497,918 8,690,156 62,059,853201953 29,350,170 20,539,709 121,705,680
Regarding voluntary returns in the budget and in expenditure, funding has also varied year to
year. However, quite a large portion goes toward repatriation within the budget and through
expenditure. Curiously, some years in the budget and expenditure, more funding goes toward
repatriation than to total basic needs. In 2015 this is the case, as with 2017. 2019 data displays
the smallest budget determined for Afghanistan over the period, but with an increase in funding
for basic needs.
The UNHCR’s funding for Pakistan, like Afghanistan’s, does not have many clear
generalized trends. The data for Pakistan is representative of overall funding totals from the
Pillar 2 (refugees) category. The total budget has decreased and plateaued gradually from 2014-
2019, from $162,483,588 to $99,201,69. Decreases in expenditure also seem to mimic that of the
decreasing budget.
53 Note: UNHCR expenditure funding data unavailable for 2019.
67
Interestingly, expenditure for voluntary repatriation has remained in the 3-4 million USD
range but within the budget, funding set aside for repatriation has largely varied. This means that
despite values as high as $16,130,356 in 2014 for repatriation, only around $3 million of that
money will be used for that purpose.
Table 5. UNHCR—Pakistan Financials
UNHCR Budget (in USD) UNHCR Expenditure (in USD)Year Basic
Needs Durable Solutions (repatriation)
Budget Total
Basic Needs
Durable Solutions(repatriation)
Expenditure Total
2014 67,776,163 16,130,356 162,483,588 26,473,185 3,308,685 64,498,1862015 71,931,069 14,820,441 136,702,630 32,912,429 4,415,533 64,264,3812016 72,592,838 3,160,080 137,352,356 28,476,415 4,144,154 54,725,7602017 70,253,010 3,993,861 127,073,202 26,805,711 3,153,610 53,215,9912018 52,948,797 6,581,538 99,201,669 17,658,461 3,113,537 36,682,893201954 35,418,893 10,735,024 99,201,669
Basic needs expenditure has continuously decreased along with the basic needs budget. After a
sharp drop in funds budgeted for repatriation in 2016, the part of the budget for voluntary
returns/repatriation has increased, with 2019 almost reaching levels dating back to 2014 and
2015 despite a decreasing overall budget.
Analysis
My analysis revealed that all interview participants shared aspects of six themes. Table 6
looks at these themes with definitions and examples. The data suggests that the UNHCR will
respond similarly to refugee crises during its “Emergency Phase,” regardless of whether what
generated the refugee crisis was internal persecution, external persecution, or mixed (see Figure
2). However, once crises are more protracted, the root causes of the refugee flow or the types of
54 Note: UNHCR expenditure funding data unavailable for 2019.
68
persecution matter and greatly impact the agency’s abilities to find solutions for those refugees.
Regarding the Afghan refugees, the UNHCR is continuing to select repatriation as a primary
long-term crisis response tactic or durable solution, despite growing insecurity in Afghanistan.
Table 6. Thematic Analysis of Interviews Themes, Descriptions, and Examples; Afghan Case.
Theme Description ExampleComplexity Inconsistency, lack of clarity,
uncertainty; challenges make it difficult for assisting refugees
“The humanitarian space is shrinking, there is confusion due to political complexities. No one knows who is fighting who.”55
Security Objective and perceived safety within the host country and country of origin
Pakistanis often misattribute Afghans as Taliban members and the Pakistani government—sick of being a host country—threatens to repatriate Afghan refugees.56
Protracted How the long duration of a crisis impacts UNHCR coordination and assistance
“Sometimes it [finding solutions] takes too long, as is the case for the Afghan crisis. The longer it takes, the more difficult it becomes.”57
Political Will Willingness of different actors to work together and/or to bring an end to a refugee crisis
“Depending on the situation sometimes we have different capabilities… is the government ready to support [the refugees]?”58
Repatriation Returns, voluntary or involuntary, to a defined country of origin
“It’s never clear when it’s the right time is to repatriate… there’s always an imperfect environment for return.”59
Funding Monetary contributions or constraints and their effect on returning refugees
The UN was not neglecting the Afghan refugee crisis, but donor fatigue placed pressure on Pakistan and the UNHCR.60
Considering responses by all interviewees, UNHCR funding data of the Afghan crisis,
and measures taken by the UNHCR suggest that the UNHCR varies in their response strategy
year to year, but ultimately directs efforts toward repatriation as a primary long-term solution. In 55 Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 2020.56 Kugelman, Michael, in discussion with the author. December 2019.57 Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 2020.58 Dian-Balde, Mamadou (UNHCR Deputy Director for Resilience and Solutions), in discussion with the author. January 2020.59 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 2020.60 Kugelman, Michael, in discussion with the author. December 2019.
69
this case, the Persecution-Source Theory had a correlation in the Afghan case: to an extent, the
external persecution faced by the Afghans is now hindering the UNHCR from coming up with a
solution to alleviate the crisis. As Kurtzer, Dian-Balde, and others have described, 61 when the
root causes of a crisis are inherently political and require major policy reform by the country of
origin, ways of alleviating or working on solutions to a crisis are minimized.
When averaging the values assigned to each interviewee along with budget/expenditure
considerations and UNHCR actions to date, the UNHCR’s use of humanitarian aid as a response
has a value of 1.34.
Figure 13. UNHCR Response to Afghan Refugee Crisis Scale
For use of repatriation as a response toward the Afghan crisis, the value is 1.59, indicating that
the UNHCR has facilitated some instances of successful, orderly return operations of Afghan
refugees, and plans to continue repatriation efforts in the immediate term despite the lack of
61 Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 2020; Kurtzer, Jacob, in discussion with the author. December 2019; interview with UNHCR Consultant. January 2020.
70
safety and ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. Figure 13 applies these values to the two UNHCR
Response Scales.
The Afghan case study illustrates some consistency with the Persecution-Source Theory.
Since we can assert that the constraints placed on the UNHCR’s work are a result of the root
causes of the Afghan crisis—which is external persecution—the UNHCR seeks to (but is
sometimes unable to depending on the conflict) repatriate Afghan refugees back to Pakistan. We
can conclude that the inter-state war and Soviet-led (and ongoing American-led) operations
which generated the Afghan refugee crisis in waves now influence the UNHCR’s responses and
abilities to assist the Afghan refugees in Pakistan. However, many interviewees stressed the
importance of coordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan as another important factor.
Interviewees primarily discussed the UNHCR’s operations under constraints by politics
and the ongoing conflict. Responses show that pressure from Pakistani policy and officials along
with inconsistency in Afghan security make up the majority of pressures exerted onto the
agency. When it comes to the Afghan crisis, respondents described the agency’s expertise and
mission to be respected by major stakeholders.62 UNHCR officials expressed that the willingness
of refugees to repatriate or make related decisions often “depends upon the information they
receive from the UNHCR…as a reliable information source.”63 According to Kugelman and
Aplon, the UNHCR does an effective job of addressing refugee needs, but is in a tricky situation
of “risking non-refoulement.”64 In terms of timing, the longer a refugee crisis lasts or the more
protracted it is, it remains to be seen if the UNHCR will employ repatriation efforts as its
primary crisis response method.65 In the case of the Afghan refugees, there is a limited desire to 62 Aplon, Jason and Sam Grundy (IOM), in discussion with the author. January 2020. 63 Dian-Balde, Mamadou, in discussion with the author. January 2020.64 Aplon, Jason, in discussion with the author. January 2020; Kugelman, Michael, in discussion with the author. December 2019. 65 Sultan-Khan, Athar, in discussion with the author. January 2020. Abraham, Abraham (former refugee official), in discussion with the author. January 2020.
71
return to Afghanistan due to the high levels of integration Afghan refugees have experienced in
Pakistan.66 An IOM official stressed how the forty-year anniversary of the initial displacement
has led to “generations of Afghan refugee families living in Pakistan, with some refugee children
never having been to Afghanistan.”67 This reality, combined with the government of Pakistan
exerting more pressure onto Afghan refugees to leave, regardless of whether the UNHCR is
conducting repatriation operations places the agency in an especially difficult set of
circumstances.
This chapter examined the Afghan refugee crisis as a case study of external persecution,
charting the background of the crisis, and UNHCR responses to it. Chapter 5 concludes with a
summary of my findings and opportunities for future research.
66 Interview with former IOM worker, December 2019.67 Ibid.
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Chapter 5
Conclusion
This project investigates the research questions: Why does the UNHCR sometimes select
repatriation (voluntary return) and other times choose humanitarian assistance as a primary
refugee crisis alleviation method? How does the UNHCR determine a crisis response strategy for
each refugee situation? What impacts the UNHCR’s ability to assist refugees in finding
solutions? It is evident that the root causes of the crisis play an important role in constraining or
impacting the UN Refugee Agency’s ability to help refugees.
I argue that the UNHCR would be more likely to repatriate if the refugee generating
source in the crisis is external. On the other end, the UNHCR would be more likely to select
humanitarian aid and assistance as a crisis response strategy if the persecution source is internal.
These two main groupings of persecution comprise the Persecution-Source Theory.
In the last two chapters, I tested the Persecution-Source Theory through a mixed-methods
research plan, combining qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitatively, an analysis of funding
earmarks to the UNHCR is conducted to determine trends. Qualitatively, research focuses on the
Afghan and Rohingya Refugee Crises as two case studies. Interviews of UNHCR staff, think
tank experts, and individuals associated with substantial donations to the UNHCR within the
context of the case studies are evaluated using thematic analysis.
These chapters tested the Persecution-Source Theory, taking into account funding
allocation toward certain refugee crisis alleviating strategies, media coverage of crises, and a
standard process based on timing. The UNHCR’s ability to select certain crisis response
strategies may be dependent on the donors’ intent for the money. The UNHCR could also
prioritize repatriation as its primary strategy in alleviating refugee crises when a refugee crisis
73
receives a lower amount of news coverage relative to other crises, and humanitarian aid with a
higher amount. In terms of timing, the longer a refugee crisis lasts or the more protracted it is,
the more likely the UNHCR will employ repatriation efforts as its primary crisis response
method.
The next section summarizes results from chapters 3 and 4, comparing them. Then, I
discuss observations of the Persecution-Source Theory within the chapter, acknowledging areas
of improvement. I end by looking at the implications of the project and opportunities for future
research.
Findings Overview
This thesis contributes to the growing body of research on the UNHCR and its abilities to
provide solutions for refugees. In Chapter 3, a case study of the Rohingya refugee crisis
including funding changes from 2014-2019 and personal interviews showed that internal
persecution is correlated with the UNHCR selecting humanitarian aid as a primary crisis
response. I looked at recent historical changes that have impacted Rohingya refugees and their
experiences in Bangladesh as the host country. I then investigated the UNHCR’s responses to the
crisis qualitatively through guiding documents and partnerships among countries and parties
involved, and quantitatively by analyzing funding trends. The results do support the Persecution-
Source theory, even against alternative explanations.
Chapter 4 involved a case study of the Afghan refugee crisis, also including funding
changes from 2014-2019. Personal interviews showed that external persecution is correlated with
the UNHCR choosing repatriation as a primary crisis response. This chapter also included a
recent history of Afghan refugees and their experiences in Pakistan as the host country. The
analysis investigated the UNHCR’s responses to the crisis qualitatively through guiding
74
documents and partnerships among countries and parties involved, and quantitatively through
funding trends. The results do lend some support to the Persecution-Source theory, but some
intervening variables illustrate a more complex causal story.
Comparing the Rohingya and Afghan Crises
It appears as if for the Rohingya, the UNHCR solutions strategy is still heavily reliant on
humanitarian assistance due to numerous constraints. The first constraint is the political situation
in Myanmar; the government lacks the legal architecture needed to provide the Rohingya with
citizenship status or a path to obtaining citizenship, therefore, repatriation is not an option.
Furthermore, many refugees do not want to return because it is not safe for them to do so. The
political will by countries to assist Bangladesh and/or to speak out against Myanmar is minimal.
For example, many countries are not helping in terms of resettlement, they are simply
contributing monetarily. Additionally, reintegration or integration is difficult in Bangladesh due
to their fair share of challenges (some of which include the generating refugee mass-movements,
a lack of money, citizens having similar needs as refugees leading to discontent, and climate
change). The result is a need to use humanitarian assistance to maintain the status quo until
different solutions can be implemented.
This contrasts with the Afghan refugees, for the UNHCR uses the SSAR which was
created out of a concern that humanitarian assistance alone, particularly as it has diminished over
the years, is entirely insufficient to address the complex needs of the refugee population and
provide a basis for successful returns and reintegration. Although there may be a desire to
repatriate Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, there is common recognition among scholars and
refugee officials that the means to promote safe, orderly, and voluntary return to Myanmar do
not exist for now. Between Afghanistan and Pakistan, however, the legal mechanisms are much
75
more developed and are stronger (as is the pressure being placed on Afghan refugees to
repatriate from the Pakistan government).
Even though this is the case, this same set of RSD policies that enables the Pakistan
government and the UNHCR to help Afghan refugees is also contributing to, through arbitrary
deadlines, their lack of documentation and safety as they are deported or are unaccounted for.
Moreover, the UNHCR often lacks the capacity to process Afghan refugees via RSD since so
many are approaching the agency as asylum-seekers. This has given more power to the Pakistan
government to only provide resources and care to those documented, leading to the deportation
of undocumented Afghan refugees and/or more instances of forced repatriation to Afghanistan
(potentially non-refoulement). Additionally, a focus on repatriation through larger concentrations
of funding and in terms of policy preferences reveal a push to continue repatriation initiatives
more so in the Afghan case than in other cases. Both the Rohingya and Afghan crises have
unstable situations within Myanmar and Afghanistan, yet the thesis shows how the preference to
repatriate Afghan refugees is much greater than that to repatriate Rohingya refugees.
Testing the Persecution-Source Theory
Therefore, the Afghan and Rohingya case studies show how “policy impedes practice.”
The type of persecution, external for the Afghan refugees and internal for the Rohingya refugees,
did impact the UNHCR’s ability to assist both refugee groups since the nature of the persecution
caused the constraints that the agency now faces. Furthermore, the Persecution-Source Theory
points to the differences in solutions strategies that the UNHCR has taken in these crises, the UN
Refugee Agency seeks to repatriate Afghan refugees whenever possible but not for the Rohingya
refugees since the opportunity to repatriate (or to pursue the other durable solutions) does not yet
exist. In other words, crises generated by internal persecution confine the UNHCR to
76
humanitarian assistance-based response strategies since genocide, ethnic cleansing, and other
forms of internal persecution prevent safe conditions and policies for the return of those
displaced. It will take a dramatic shift in circumstances and ideology by the country of origin
responsible for the persecution to alter its behavior and manufacture the political will necessary
to effectively work with and assist the UNHCR.
For external persecution, one can assert that the elimination of the external threat
provides the space the UNHCR needs to facilitate voluntary returns—given that the country of
origin is safe. My investigation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan highlights this does not always
hold when the country of origin is unsafe. The instability in Afghanistan constrains the
UNHCR’s capacity to repatriate Afghan refugees despite the steps already taken and desired to
be taken within the SSAR and legal frameworks. The intent and political will among Pakistan
and Afghanistan tend to be present, the safety necessary for Afghan refugees to repatriate often is
not.
In addition to the importance of political will and safety in the UNHCR response strategy
calculus, it is wise to acknowledge the clarity to which the persecution experienced by the
refugees in the Rohingya and Afghan cases was internal and external. The Rohingya situation is
often linked to the phrase “textbook definition of ethnic cleansing” (100 Days of Horror). It is
evident from a variety of sources that the persecution the Rohingya face is internal, deriving
from the country of origin. For the Afghan case study, however, numerous external actors
became involved in the external persecution of Afghan refugees after the initial invasion by the
Soviets. More specifically, the traditional responses and coordination among the UNHCR with
relevant actors upon the elimination of the external persecution’s source was not seen in
77
Afghanistan. In fact, insecurity remained and increased as a result of continued violence despite
the removal of the preliminary threat.
The implications of this observation yield more importance to the Persecution-Source
Theory and others like it. The Rohingya case exemplifies a clear-cut, concrete scenario of
internal persecution. Inherent to the persecution’s internality are the aforementioned constraints,
namely a lack of political will and safety in the country of origin. Essentially, refugee crises
generated from internal persecution can be expected to come with these constraints. When
controlling for refugees’ desire to return, it makes sense that alleviating the internal threat
through robust policies and social cohesion would increase the likelihood of refugees returning
to their country of origin. Unfortunately, this type of situation is rarely, if ever, seen. It is
unlikely that this outcome will occur soon for the Rohingya refugees, if at all.
However, for external persecution, several different outcomes can take place. The safety
of the country of origin, when controlling for refugees’ desire to return and the implementation
of strong policies and transformative justice, is not necessarily contingent on the elimination of
the external persecution source. Just because the conflict between the USSR and Afghanistan
ended does not mean that Afghanistan is now (or ever was) safe for voluntary returns. This
caveat points to a need for expansion of the Persecution-Source Theory, particularly within the
external and mixed categories of persecution.
Opportunities for Further Research
This research demonstrates that the Persecution-Source Theory can help to make sense of
the complexities of the UNHCR’s work in refugee crises. The thesis shows how consideration of
the root causes of crises can help to better inform policymakers and refugee officials or to predict
78
the constraints the UNHCR will face throughout the duration of a refugee crisis. Moreover, it
signals a greater need for investigation of countries of origin and the causes of refugee crises.
Further research could expand this investigation into other regions to see if the
Persecution-Source Theory and others like it hold within Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and
the Middle East and North Africa. It would be worth engaging in more comparative case studies
in this regard, considering different ethnic conflicts, state-sponsored persecution, and ongoing
war. Additional research could contribute empirically to the refugee literature, testing the
significance of the associations I explored using world data sets. It is also important to continue
studies of the Rohingya and Afghan refugee crises as they evolve.
This paper examined a gap in the literature, where the UNHCR’s response strategies and
the types of persecution refugees experienced are an unacknowledged association. However, this
work also sheds light on the plight of refugees as they seek to find safety for themselves and their
families. In my belief, it is our (shared) responsibility as researchers to continue to inform
policymaking groups and local communities on the dynamics of our world. Although my work
touches upon one unknown within the refugee regime, many others need to be addressed,
whether that is through the plausibility of the Persecution-Source Theory or other means.
Regardless of how we seek to minimize the suffering of our fellow humans, we must persist, for
no one deserves to be forcibly uprooted from the places they call home.
79
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Appendix
Interviewee Interviewee’s Position Date of Interview
Location of Interview
Communication Method
Jacob Kurtzer CSIS Deputy Director and Senior Fellow—Humanitarian Agenda
Dec. 4th, 2019 Washington DC In person
Rudabeh Shahid Atlantic Council—Nonresident Senior Fellow
Dec. 7th, 2019 Washington DC Skype
Michael Kugelman
Wilson Center—Deputy Director of Asia Program, Senior Associate for South Asia
Dec. 11th, 2019 Washington DC In person
Former IOM Worker
Previous Head of IOM Community Stabilization Unit
Dec. 14th, 2019 Washington DC Phone
U.S. State Department Official
Manager and Program Analyst Dec. 28th, 2019 N/A Phone
OCHA Consultant
Humanitarian Affairs Consultant
Jan. 6th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
UNHCR Legal Consultant
Associate Legal Officer Jan. 6th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Independent Refugee Consultant
Independent Senior Consultant; former UNHCR Country Director for Afghanistan
Jan. 6th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
UNHCR Consultant
UNHCR Consultant—Emergency Services
Jan. 6th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Mamadou Dian-Balde
UNHCR Deputy Director, Division of Resilience and Solutions
Jan. 7th, 2020 UNHCR Headquarters; Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Jason Aplon IOM Transition and Recovery Division, Department of Operations and Emergencies Post Conflict/DDR Advisor
Jan. 7th, 2020 IOM Headquarters; Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Sam Grundy IOM Program Advisor, Transition and Recovery Division
Jan. 7th, 2020 IOM Headquarters; Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Independent Refugee Consultant
Independent Humanitarian Consultant
Jan. 8th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
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Athar Sultan-Khan
UNHCR Special Advisor to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Jan. 8th, 2020 Geneva School of Diplomacy & International Relations;Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Daniela Raiman UNHCR Senior Policy Officer and Global CCCM Cluster Coordinator
Jan. 9th, 2020 UNHCR Headquarters; Geneva, Switzerland
In person
Jerome Elie International Council of Voluntary Agencies Senior Policy Officer for Forced Displacement
Jan. 9th, 2020 Geneva, Switzerland
In person
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Persecution-Source Theory Scale Values68
Numerical Values for Scales (Figure 1)Interviewee Rohingya Crisis Afghan Crisis
Jacob Kurtzer Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=1 Repatriation=1.5
Rudabeh Shahid Humanitarian=2.5 Humanitarian=2Repatriation=0.5 Repatriation=1
Michael Kugelman Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=1 Repatriation=1.5
Former IOM Worker Humanitarian=2.5 Humanitarian=2Repatriation=0.5 Repatriation=1
U.S. State Department Official Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=1 Repatriation=2
OCHA Consultant Humanitarian=2.5 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=0.5 Repatriation=2
UNHCR Consultant Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=1 Repatriation=2
Independent Refugee Consultant
Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=1 Repatriation=2
UNHCR Consultant Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=1 Repatriation=2
Mamadou Dian-Balde Humanitarian=2.5 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=0.5 Repatriation=1.5
Jason Aplon Humanitarian=2.75 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=0.25 Repatriation=1.5
Sam Grundy Humanitarian=2.75 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=0.25 Repatriation=1.5
Independent Refugee Consultant
Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1Repatriation=1 Repatriation=2
Athar Sultan-Khan Humanitarian=2.5 Humanitarian=1.25Repatriation=0.5 Repatriation=0.75
Daniela Raiman Humanitarian=2 Humanitarian=1.5Repatriation=1 Repatriation=1.5
Jerome Elie Humanitarian=2.75 Humanitarian=1.25Repatriation=0.25 Repatriation=1.75
Average: Humanitarian Avg.=2.3 Humanitarian Avg.=1.34Repatriation Avg.=0.7 Repatriation Avg.=1.59
68 Based on Figure 1, which shows a humanitarian and repatriation scale to test the Persecution-Source Theory.
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Sample Questions Asked
For the UNHCR:
What is your understanding of how the UNHCR determines what strategies to use to alleviate a large refugee crisis?
Are some refugee crises given more attention than others? If so, why?
When (in the duration of a refugee crisis) does the UNHCR begin to use repatriation as its main strategy if it is used at all?
Do you think the type of persecution that is experienced by refugees influences the UNHCR’s responses in helping them? For example, if a state engages in genocide against people residing in its borders would the UNHCR react differently than if refugees were fleeing persecution from a civil war?
How does the UNHCR handle crises where the state is persecuting its people via genocide or ethnic cleansing (ex. Myanmar)? Is there a pattern?
How does the UNHCR handle crises where terrorist groups or outside forces are persecuting people? Is there a pattern?
How does the UNHCR determine when it is safe for refugees to return to their countries of origin?
Describe the UNHCR’s work with Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.
How influential are the UNHCR’s largest donors in determining what happens on the ground on a 1-10 scale (with 1 being not influential at all and 10 being making key decisions for the UNHCR)?
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