Filling evidence gaps for Climate-smart agriculture in South Africa

Prof. William Kunin

University of Leeds

Climate change & Agriculture

• Agriculture is a major global driver of climate change

• Agricultural production is strongly affectedby climate change

Climate change

Agri-culture

Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions

• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils

• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased

volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &

diseases

Climate smart agriculture

• Methods to decrease impacts of agriculture on climate (“Mitigation”)

• Methods to adapt agriculture to predicted changes (“Adaptation”)

Climate change

Agri-culture

Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions

• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils

• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased

volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &

diseases

o Changing crop and livestock choices to fit future climateso Crop & livestock breeding to improve climate resilienceo Management changes to adapt to future stresses & riskso Infrastructure investment for future climates

o Reducing use of high GHG-producing componentso Changing management to increase Carbon storage in

agricultural soils

Climate smart agriculture

• Methods to decrease impacts of agriculture on climate (“Mitigation”)

• Methods to adapt agriculture to predicted changes (“Adaptation”)

Climate change

Agri-culture

Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions

• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils

• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased

volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &

diseases

o Changing crop and livestock choices to fit future climateso Crop & livestock breeding to improve climate resilienceo Management changes to adapt to future stresses & riskso Infrastructure investment for future climates

o Reducing use of high GHG-producing componentso Changing management to increase Carbon storage in

agricultural soils

“Conservation Agriculture”:• Reduced (or no) tillage• More diverse crop systems in space & time• Continuous soil cover: crops & residuesIncreased organic Carbon in soils, improved water retention & reduced erosionIncreased production & resilience

Outline of talk:

•Climate change projections for South Africa

•Likely impact on important crop & livestock sectors

•Knowledge gaps (& AFRICAP Theme A)

• Introducing breakout groups…

Model uncertainty & climate predictions

• Models AGREE on temperature trend and regional patterns

• Models DISAGREE about future rainfall change patterns

Model: HadGEM2-ES Model: IPSL-CM5A-LR Model: MIROC-ESM-CHEM

Temperature 2050s

Current

Model: HadGEM2-ES Model: IPSL-CM5A-LR Model: MIROC-ESM-CHEM

Precipitation 2050s

Current

WIN

TER

SUM

MER

Current Max Temp Current Projected

Source: Estes et al. (2013) Global Change Biology 19:3762-3774

Climate & climate change in South Africa

Projected

Hotter everywhere, but less increase near coast

Drier summers in West, Wetter summers in East & coast

Drier winters inland, Wetter winters near coast

Observed recent climate change: 1960-2010

Summer Autumn

Winter Spring

Summer Autumn

Winter Spring

Temperatures rising virtually everywhere, in all seasons.Temp rise >1.5x global mean Source: MacKellar et al. (2014) Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South

Africa 1960-2010. South African J Science 110: 1-13

Temperature (max) Rainfall

Rainfall trends differ between regions & seasons

Climate variability & weather extremes

• Evidence that both droughts and extreme rainfall events are increasing in frequency & severity

• Multiple CC models suggest this trend for higher variability will continue in most areas of SA

Sources: Easterling et al. (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a review. Bull. of the Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 81: 417-425 ; Lumsden et al. (2009) Evaluation of potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics of rainfall in southern Africa under conditions of climate change. Water SA 35: 649-656

Agricultural impact: MaizeSuitable area Yield per unit area

Mec

han

isti

c m

od

els

Stat

isti

cal m

od

els

Mechanistic models: physiologically detailed.Capture Temp, Water and CO2 fertilisation effects

Statistical models: Incorporate wider range of drivers, incl. e.g. indirect effects on pests & diseases

Source: Estes et al. (2013) Projected climate impacts to South African Maize and wheat production in 2055. Global Change Biology 19:3762-3774

Agricultural impact: Soybean• South Africa has potential for

substantial growth in soya production under current & future climates

• Import substitution as input into livestock and poultry industry feed

• Potentially valuable for human nutrition

Potential increases in Free State; decreasedsuitability in East

Agricultural impact: Potato• Increased heat stress in summer

• Improved winter performance

• Shifting planting seasons

• Shifting regional importance

• Changed pest & disease challenges

Sources: Franke et al. (2013); van der Waals et al (2013)Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems : 2, 3. Potato Res. 56: 51-66; 56: 67-84

Late blight Root-knot nematodes

Agricultural impact: Livestock & poultry

Source: Rojas-Downing et al. (2017) Climate change and livestock: impacts, adaptation & mitigation. Climate Risk Management 16: 145-163

• Multiple direct & indirect challenges:

Agricultural impact: Dairy

• Heat stress effects on dairy cattle production

• Substantial decreases forecast in most areas (esp. East)

• Providing cooling (shade?) may help

• Breeding more heat-resistant varieties

Current suitability

Projected suitability 2046-65

Source: Williams et al. (2016) Geographical influence of heat stress on milk production of Holstein dairy cattle on pasture in South Africa under current and future climatic conditions. South African Journal of Animal Science 46: 441-447

A1:Context

Characterisation,PolicyAnalysisandEvidenceBaselines:

understandingwhatdoesanddoesn’t

work

C1:StakeholderMapping:

whoandwhatinstitutionsarekey?

C2:Participatoryco-

designofSAZs

A2:Cross-DisciplinaryResearchCapacityBuilding:identifyingandfillingknowledgegaps

A3:ParticipatoryScenario

Building:currenttrendsandregionalfuturesinaworldofchange

B1:Calibrationand

DevelopmentofModelsforApplicationinAfricanAgri-FoodSystems

B2:InnovativeUseofModelsandDataforClimateSmartAgri-FoodSystems:SDGandPariscompliantfutures

B3:DerivingDesirable

PathwaysofChange

C2:PolicyDesign

C2:Piloting

inSAZs

C4:ScalingupacrossSSA:

disseminationtoAU/COMESA

A:BuildingtheEvidenceBaseforClimate-SmartAgri-FoodSystemsLeads:Whitfield(Leeds);Ndema (FANRPAN)

B:DevelopingClimateSmartAgri-FoodSystemPathways:whatisneededtoachievetheSDGs?

Leads:Challinor(Leeds),Smith(Aberdeen),Lewis(UKMO),Madzivhandila (FANRPAN)

C:MakingitHappen:buildingcapacityforpathwayimplementation.Leads:

Bailey(CH),Quinn(Leeds),Sibanda(FANRPAN)

C3:Policy

Evaluation

D:ResearchManagementCapacityBuilding&

Cross-CuttingTrainingLead:Heery(Leeds)

Fig1:GCRF-AFRICAPTheoryofchange

Theme B: Modellingfuture Agri-Food systems

Theme A: Evidence base for climate smart Agri-Food systems

Theme C: Making it happen -- Scenarios and policy trials

Theme D: Project management and capacity building

Theme A: Building the Evidence Base for Climate-smart Agri-food Systems

• Literature & database studies on key issues for agricultural development under climate change

• Field research to fill key data gaps• Nine lab and field-based research projects spread across

four countries in Southern & Eastern Africa

• Two of these involve South Africa: A. Crop Breeding & Seed Systems for Climate Change Adaptation

Zambia & South Africa

B. SCAMPI: Smallholder & Commercial Agricultural Management Processes & Interactions -- South Africa exclusively

A. Crop Breeding and Seed Systems for Climate Change Adaptation in Zambia and South Africa

Aims:

(1) to evaluate technological crop breeding capabilities and seed system processes for improving resilience to projected climate change-related stresses in maize, rice and soybean (and potentially other crops if there is demand); and

(2) to work with crop breeders and seed systems representative to improve access to relevant and appropriate climate information

Key Stakeholders: • Organisations involved in crop improvement research, the

marketing and delivery of improved varieties, and agricultural extension

Focus on comparisons and interactions between large commercial producers and smallholders/subsistence farmers:

B. SCAMPI: Smallholder & Commercial Agricultural Management Processes & Interactions

Non-farm households, home gardens and subsistence farms: ca. 830,000

Smallholdings: ca. 440,000 Large farms:

ca. 35,000

Two-tier agricultural sector: • Most farms are small, but• Most farmland & production

is on large farms.

• National agricultural statistics & modelling focus on commercial sector… Data gap on smallholder production

Policy imperative: Increase rural employment• “Agriculture has the potential to create close to 1 million new jobs by

2030…” (DAFF Agricultural Development Action Plan, 2014) To achieve this, South Africa needs to:

• Expand irrigated agriculture. Evidence shows that the 1.5 million ha. under irrigation… can be expanded by at least 500,000 ha. Through the better use of existing water resources and developing new water schemes. […]

• Pick and support commercial agricultural sectors and regions that have the highest potential for growth and employment.”

Yet trend since 1950s:

• Fewer, larger commercial farms

• Decreased labour usage

Growing numbers of small-holders: can they help reverse trend in agricultural employment? Improve access to food, nutrition?

Will on-going land-reform further increase smallholder farming? Can it do so while maintaining or increasing production & export income? (source: Aliber 2014, cited in APAP)

A two-tiered agricultural sector• Focus on: areas where large commercial farming

and small-holder agriculture are conducted side-by-side (similar base soils, crops)

• How do management methods, soil properties, pests and production differ between the two types of farms? Do they differ in take-up, nature & impact of climate adaptations & mitigations?

• How do the two component sectors interact?

• Movement of agrichemicals;

• Movement of pests, biocontrol agents, pollinators;

• Interaction via employment and income;

• Sharing markets and infrastructure…

Fertiliser, pesticide drift?

NB: Postdoctoral job being advertised:“African Agricultural Ecology”

• Please pass the word to any good potential candidates with interests in agricultural ecology, crop pests, soils & climate-smart agriculture!

• Website: https://jobs.leeds.ac.uk/• Job Ref: FBSBY1088• Position to be posted: ca. 21 July• Application deadline: 16 August

Break-out groups: I. Summer Grains (Maize, soya, etc)

II. Livestock & Poultry (esp. Cattle, chickens)

III. Horticulture (Potato, vegetables, fruit)Key Questions:

A. How is climate change affecting / likely to affect this aspect of the food system (for large commercial AND smallholder farms) – both directly and indirectly (via effects on pest and diseases)

B. What mitigation and/or adaptation strategies may help (large farms and smallholders) cope with those challenges?

C. What actions/research/activities are already in progress to explore these strategies (by government, NGOs, charities, businesses…) and how can AFRICAP help/work with them?

D. Can you think of locations in the Free State or nearby provinces where large commercial farms and smallholders raise this type of food side-by-side?

Appoint a spokesperson and report back in 40 minutes…

Any Questions?

Agricultural ecology research

• Soils: organic matter, nutrients

• Mycorrhizal colonisation of crop plants

• Pest and pathogen attack rates on crop plants

• Biocontrol of pests

• Pollinators

https://plant-health.co.za/eco-bb-emergency-registration-fall-armyworm/

Yield & nutrition research

• Crop yield

• Biomass/fodder yield

• Nutritional value of crop

• Nutritional value of fodder

• Mycotoxin loads (fresh & in storage)

https://qz.com/999793/south-africas-best-crop-in-history-still-isnt-enough-to-lift-its-farmers-spirits/

Socio-economic research

• HAVA survey

• Land access

• Crop and livestock production

• Crop and livestock management

• Diet and nutrition

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/financial-inclusion-south-africa/