Russia’s Capabilities and Intentions in the Arctic,

and Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

Introduction to the Arctic

■ Arctic sea ice is melting at 3.4 percent per decade

■ New economic opportunities■ Hydrocarbons■ Shipping■ Minerals■ Fishing■ Tourism

Source: National Snow & Ice Data Center

International Cooperation

Arctic CouncilUnited Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Source: www.arctic-council.org Source: www.savethehighseas.org

Defining U.S. National Security Interests

■ National Security for the Arctic Region adopted in May 2013

■ It identifies U.S. interests in the Arctic:■ Protecting sovereign territory and resources■ Pursuing responsible Arctic stewardship■ Pursuing interests through Arctic cooperation

■ More than traditional military security

Factors of Conflict

Territory and Natural Resources

Source: www.dabrownstein.com

❖ 2001: Russia’s first attempt to claim Lomonosov Ridge through UNCLOS denied

❖ 2007: Russia plants flag at the bottom of Lomonosov Ridge

❖ 2015: Russia resubmitted claim through UNCLOS

Source: globe-net.com

Northern Sea Route Dispute

Bering Sea Dispute

Source: arcticecon.wordpress.com

Environment■ Oil

■ 4 million barrels each year■ Poorly designed infrastructure■ 30 Greenpeace activists detained for studying oil rig

■ Nuclear waste■ 17,000 containers ■ 19 vessels ■ 14 nuclear reactors■ Liquid waste ■ Aleksandr Nikitin charged with treason

Taimyr Province

Source: BBC

The Northern Fleet

■ 2011 Estimate by the Strategic Studies Institute

■ 200 Combat Aircraft ■ Infantry Brigade with 74 tanks■ 209 Artillery Systems ■ Four Cruise Missile

Submarines■ 20 Multi Purpose Attack

SubmarinesSource: Sputnik News

Source: Stratfor

Source: StratFor

Source: www.businessinsider.com

Russian Icebreaker Fleet

Source: US Coast Guard

Russia’s Military Expansion ■ Replace 70% of infantry and tank brigade’s equipment by 2020

■ 2,300 Armata fifth generation battle tanks

■ 2,000 Armored Personnel Carriers

■ Tornado Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems

■ Fifth generation missile warning systems

Soft Power Problems and Solutions

Lack of Respect for International Law

■ Russia is the most dominant Arctic player

■ Potential conflict will be with Russia

■ Georgia, Ukraine, examples of their lack of respect for international law

■ Arctic as strategic check against West

Issues of American soft power■ Six U.S. agencies deal with Arctic issues (DoS, EPA, NNSA, FWS, NOAA,

GCRP)■ Problems have included:

–Lack of coordination–Lack of accountability–Lack of clear message–Lack of funding

■ Executive Order 13689 - Enhancing ■ Coordination Of National Efforts in the Arctic■ Policy breakthrough, but still new

Source: Wikimedia

UNCLOS■ 166 nations and the EU have signed

■ The U.S. still has not

■ Benefits of joining UNCLOS

■ Freedom of Navigation

■ ESC claims

■ American leadershipSource: AmericanGeo

Hard Power

Lack of Hard Power Infrastructure

■ Only a few Patrols over of the Arctic by the Coast Guard

■ Thule Air Force Base in Greenland has no intercept or combat aircraft

■ ALCOM is the closest joint command between U.S. Army and Airforce

■ Limited Arctic Training and Exercises

U.S. Icebreaker Fleet

Source: US Coast Guard

Russian Aggression in Context

■Georgian Intervention

■Crimean Invasion

■Syrian Adventures

■“Inverted” Stunts

Hard Power Solutions

■ Surveillance systems and aircraft

■ Realign the Arctic National Security Strategy

■ Better training and more equipment

Smart Power ❖ Deterrence capabilities are a must

❖ Unconditional support for international law and norms

❖ Sign and help develop the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas

❖ U.S. has dominance in most places, but not the Arctic. This must change

❖ Use NATO’s Hard Power assets to enforce recognized law and abide by it ourselves

Questions?