Final Presentation Economic analysis

7/29/2019 Final Presentation Economic analysis

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Group Members:

Abdullah Zain

Abid khan

Fawad Mir

Asad Farouk


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http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdf
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdfhttp://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/publications/nec2005/nec44.pdf


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Total literacy rate (%), 1999/200047 percent

Total adult literacy rate (%), 20032008

55 percent

Source:http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html#63
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html


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Youth (1524 years)literacy rate, 20032007,

(Male )

80 Percent

Youth (1524 years) literacy rate,20032007,

(female)

60 Percent

Source:http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html#63
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.htmlhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/pakistan_pakistan_statistics.html


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Primary education is root cause

Causes: Opportunity Cost of child labor compared to

education Costly reading material and stationary

Effects: Low Overall level of economic development Extensive and widespread poverty


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Data 2002

Registered Doctors 101,635

Registered Dentists 5,068Nurses 44,520

Midwives 23,084

Lady Health Visitors 6,397

Population per doctor 1,446

Population per dentist 29,405

Source: Issues In Pakistan economy by S.A Zaidi


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Total Health Facilities 13,937

Hospitals 965

Dispensaries 4,916

Basic Health Units 4,872

Rural Health Centers 595

MCH Centers 1,138

TB Centers 371

First Aid Points: 1,080

Beds in hospitals &

dispensaries

105,005

Population per bed 1,515

Population to health facilityratio

11,413

Health Services Delivery (2006-07)

Doctors 107,835

Doctors registered as specialists 19,623

Dentists 7446

Dental specialists 433Nurses 43,646

Midwives 2,788

Lady Health Visitors 3,864

Lady Health Workers 95,000

Lady Health Supervisors 3,385

Population per doctor 1,475

Population per dentist 21,362Population per nurse 3,644

Human Resources(Registered, 2007)

Source:http://www.health.gov.pk/
http://www.health.gov.pk/http://www.health.gov.pk/


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Source: http://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdf
http://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdfhttp://www.who.int/whosis/mort/profiles/mort_emro_pak_pakistan.pdf


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source:http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdf
http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdfhttp://apps.who.int/globalatlas/predefinedReports/TB/PDF_Files/pak.pdf


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source: http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdf
http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdfhttp://www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/profile_pak_en.pdf


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Abid khan


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The International Monetary Fund (IMF)was Established in 1944

responsible for promoting exchange ratestability and providing temporary assistance(under Stand-By Arrangement) to a memberstate facing short-term balance of paymentsdifficulty.


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The Fund introduced new support facilitieswith time i.e.

SAF (Structural Adjustment Facility)

ESAF (Enhanced Structural AdjustmentFacility)

EFF (Extended Fund Facility) and

PRGF (Poverty reduction growth Facility)of medium-term nature.


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SAPs are designed for individual countries buthave common guiding principles and featureswhich include improving the balance of payment position,

cutting the fiscal deficit,

lowering inflation and

increasing growth.


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Trade Policy To adopt competitive real exchange rates.devalue

your currency

Lifting restrictions on exports is advised to

encourage exports Decrease in quantitative restrictions on imports..i.e.

quotas and reduction in tariff to strengthen theinternational competiveness of domestic industry.

The principal is outward-oriented export led pathfor economy, and domestic and international pricesshould be brought in line with each other.


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Fiscal Policy The reduction and elimination of fiscal deficits by

curtailing public expenditure

Increase in prices in the public sector for increasing

revenues Reformed and rationalized tax system.to increase

government revenue raising ability

Subsidies on energy and agriculture sector

substantially cut or eliminated altogether.


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Public Enterprises Treat state economic enterprise same as private

sector Reform public enterprise to improve efficiency and

profitability Close or privatize unprofitable public enterprises to

reduce government fiscal burden

Financial Sector Improve the regulatory framework to restore public

confidence Relax interest rate ceilings Liberalize time deposit rates and lending rates


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Industrial Policy Remove protection from the industrial sector to

make it more competitive Remove price controls over goods to improve

resource allocation Promote export oriented industries

Agriculture Eliminate bias against agriculture by adjusting

exchange rate and removing the protection on

industry Agric prices to be liberalized and subsidies

discontinued.


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Broad objectives achieved Economic growth revived Fiscal deficit and external debt ratio reduced Inflation came down to less than 4 percent in

2001-04 (re-emerging in later years andreaching 9 percent in 2005)

Progress made in structural reformsespecially in trade, interest rate management and capital account liberalization.


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the tax-GDP ratio remained at low level of11%

lending to public utilities high (1% of GDP)

Social indicators showed improvement, yetthey remained far below the desired levels.


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Financial sector share in GDP increased quitesignificantly.

Balance of trade deficit incresed from$1.208bn in 2003 to $20.745bn in 2008.

Total external debt increased from $36.5b in2002 to $52b by 2009


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SDR 5.17 billion ($ 7.6 billion) equal to 500%of Pakistan's quota in the Fund.

Arrangement period 23 months.

disbursed in seven tranches

It is on interest rate of 3.51-4.51%.

The amount and interest will be repaid in fiveyears from 2011.


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Restore confidence of domestic and external Tightening of fiscal and monetary policies and Protect the poor and preserve social stability

through a well-targeted and adequately fundedsocial safety net.

Initiated Economic Program to Reduce fiscal deficit: 7.4% of GDP in 2008 to 4.2% in

2009 and 3.3% in 2010 Tighten monetary policy (increase interest rate,

eliminate government borrowing) to reduce inflation to6% in 2010

Increase expenditure on social safety net (0.6% of GDPto 0.9% in 2009) -work with World Bank to prepare acomprehensive program of safety net


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Basic thrust of SAP in Pakistan has been toimprove its balance of payment position byimproving exports of cash crops

Closure of public sector industries andremoval of subsidies on food items andutilities.

Rise in inflation

Rise in poverty dramatic increase in the rate of suicides

directly attributable to unemployment.


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Pakistan received approximately US$31billion in external assistance and IMF loansbetween 1985 and 2000, yet the amountsactually spent on infrastructure and the social

action programme during this period havebeen miniscule in comparison

Rampant corruption

Vested interests and Economic mismanagement.


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Impact faced by common people because ofan immediate significant increase in the costof utilities.

18% increase every two-three months in

energy tariff.

higher fuel costs and withdrawal of foodsubsidies.

Burden transferred to consumers byindustrialists through price hikes.


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Fawad Mir


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Large Scale Manufacturing 138% growth in 2005 since 2000

Small Scale Manufacturing 80% growth in 2005 since 2000


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LSM growth reached highest in 2005 19.9%


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Major Industrial estates developed M3 Industrial Estate

Sundar Industrial Estate

Chakri Industrial Estate

Port Qasim Industrial Estate


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During 2005-08 telecom sector created 80,000 jobs directly

500,000 jobs indirectly

From 2004 to 2008 $9 billion FDI received During 2007-08 $1.62 billion 30% of countrys total FDI


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Represented 54% of economy Employed only 36% population

Industry and agriculture were neglected


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Textile exports $10.5 billion in 2006-07

$10.62 billion in 2007-08

Declined by 20% in 2008 due to recession

Textile export share 67% in 1997

55% in 2008


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Problems Increase in Cost of Production

Energy Crises

Removal of subsidies

Lack of new investment Global Recession


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Asad Farouk


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In 2004, Pervez Musharaf decides to sendPakistani military to Tribal areas

Suicide bombing starts causing law and orderproblems.


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Decline in Foreign Investments Internal Displaced People (IDP)

Increase in Unemployment

Stock exchange Suffered Decline

Rise in Smuggling

Governments Focus was not on dams andenergy sector


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We have lost 54 billion dollars in this warPress release by Foreign office

AID

10 billion dollar in Musharaf Era.


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Land Mafia Sugar Mafia

Cement Mafia

Lng Mafia

Regulatory bodies doesnt have any importancebecause prices are controlled by these cartels


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The same old nexus of bureaucracy, Military,Business giants and politicians controllingeconomy and resources.


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It is considered as next Dubai A trade Corridor for China and Central Asian

States

But because of political instability its futureis in danger.Example: Akbar bugtis extra judicial killing

in Musharaf era.


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Habib bank privatizationThe bank was sold at less than the price of its assets.Privatized for 18 billion

Bank of Punjab scandal9 billion loan issued to haris steel and 2.2 billion given to

phalia sugar mill of chaudhrys was written off.

Pakistan Steel millIntervention of judiciary saved Pakistan Steel . Governmentwas going to receive only 21 billion where as the government

was taking liability of 22 billion in shape of loans. Steel millassets were 4457 acres of land,6.7 billion rupee profit in2005.


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Shaukat Aziz imposed GST Tax recovery targets were low

Corruption in FBR

Indirect Taxation

Difference between have and have notsincreased.


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Akbar Bugti murder Chief Justice movement

Lal Masjid

Emergency

NRO

Benazir assassination


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Turkey The World Bank classifies Turkey as an upper-middle

income country in terms of the country's per capita GDP in2007.

Turkey is often classified as a newly industrialized countryby economists.

GDP composition by sector

agriculture: 9.3% Industry: 25.6%

services: 65.1% (2009 est.


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It has the world's 12th largest economy--and the thirdlargest in Asia behind Japan and China

Services, industry, and agriculture account for 54%, 29%, and18% of GDP respectively


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Why not martial law in Pakistan?


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The Future of our economy lies in a civilizedsystem.

Politics is economics

Military dictators and NRO democracy can

never change the Fate of our economy andPeople

Genuine democracy and Institutions can.

Documents

Final Presentation Economic analysis