Weather Briefing March 23, 2013---Page 1

Quick Look:

Final round of severe weather expected late tonight.

Hail, severe winds, and tornadoes all possible.

Watch expected later tonight.

Synopsis:

A warm front still extends from a low across southern Louisiana, east along the Florida

Panhandle coast, through north Florida. Ongoing thunderstorms will gradually weaken and light

to moderate rain will continue in a scattered nature through the night as the warm front

gradually lifts north. An upper level disturbance will rotate into the Tri-State region closer to

dawn, bringing with it the more unstable air and a pre-frontal squall line. This will be our final

threat for severe weather with this event. A watch is likely later tonight, with a tornado watch

being a possibility.

Weather Briefing March 23, 2013---Page 2

Probability:

The Storm Prediction Center has kept our area in their Slight Risk outlook. With the final

round of severe weather, the threat for all three hazards (Hail, Wind, and Tornadoes) remains a

possibility. Confidence is highest in the hail threat, with some uncertainty as to where the

highest wind and tornado threats will be. This is discussed below.

Outlook Hail Probability

Tornado Probability Severe Wind Probability

Weather Briefing March 23, 2013---Page 3

Timing:

Final Round—

Expect a temporary lull in the severe weather threat to start the night. Scattered

thunderstorms will still remain however. Towards dawn, as the aforementioned upper level

disturbance and surface low approach, a squall line will begin to develop ahead of a cold front.

Exactly where the squall line comes together is a bit uncertain, but it will likely organize in a

window somewhere between Panama City and Tallahassee. It won’t be until the afternoon that

the line of storms clears the southeast Big Bend and the severe threat comes to an end.

2 AM EDT 9 AM EDT

3 PM EDT

Weather Briefing March 23, 2013---Page 4

Storm Threats:

Large Hail: Large hail is most agreed upon threat as the line of storms move east. Very unstable air

aloft and strong winds support this threat. Hail similar to what was experienced this morning

can be expected within the line, quarter to golf ball with isolated larger stones possible.

Tornadoes:

A strong layer of stability near the surface will be the main inhibitor of tornadoes with the

next round of storms. This layer will become unstable and allow tornadoes to develop at least

by mid morning Sunday. However, exactly where and when storms will begin to be able to

make it to the surface is highly uncertain. Thus expect the possibility of tornadoes with the line

of storms, especially a few hours after sunrise.

Damaging Wind:

The damaging wind reasoning goes hand-in-hand with the tornado reasoning. When

tornadoes are possible, damaging wind will be as well. The only exception would be within the

most severe hail storms where strong winds will be capable of penetrating through the stable

layer. Similarly the tornado threat, the possibility of damaging wind exists with the line of

storms, especially a few hours after sunrise.

Heavy Rain Impacts:

Several rounds of strong storms resulted in some locations receiving upwards of 4” today.

This was especially true across south-central Georgia and the southern half of North Florida,

east of Panama City. In these locations, additional rainfall tonight may result in minor flooding

along small streams and creeks and urban centers. There is a slight chance of flash flooding,

primarily in more urbanized locations across the Tri-State region within the most severe storms.

Summary:

If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line

at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a

week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*284.

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