Financial analysis

Contract research, paid for by the above corporate entity. Equity research methods and procedures are as applied by AlphaValue. Target prices and opinions are thus exclusively determined by those

methods and procedures.

Poujoulat

Building Prod. & Materials / France Document generated on the 11/01/2013

Pull out all the “wood” stops

Buy Upside potential : 46.6 %

Target Price (6 months) 49.7

Share Price € 33.9

Market Capitalisation €M 67.4

Price Momentum STRONG

Extremes 12Months 28.8 38.5

Analyst

Gaetan Dupont [email protected]

@ www.alphavalue.com

+33 (0) 1 70 61 10 50

[email protected]

Last forecasts updated on the 11/01/2013

KEY DATA 12/10A 12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Adjusted P/E (x) 5.18 7.35 9.61 6.67 5.83

Dividend yield (%) 2.92 2.20 1.86 1.84 2.03

EV/EBITDA(R) (x) 3.96 6.08 6.70 5.97 5.42

Adjusted EPS (€) 4.47 4.16 3.49 5.08 5.82

Growth in EPS (%) 8.54 -6.80 -16.1 45.3 14.6

Dividend (€) 0.68 0.68 0.63 0.63 0.69

Sales (€th) 151,522 175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000

Net result margin (%) 5.82 4.57 3.39 4.48 4.80

Attributable net profit (€th) 8,737 8,144 6,834 9,933 11,380

ROE (after tax) (%) 15.8 12.9 10.2 13.9 14.1

Gearing (%) 39.2 52.1 72.9 75.6 71.7

Benchmarks Values (€) Upside Weight

DCF 68.9 103 % 35 %

NAV/SOTP per share 34.7 2 % 20 %

EV/Ebitda Peers 45.2 33 % 20 %

P/E Peers 59.9 77 % 10 %

Dividend Yield Peers 15.3 -55 % 10 %

P/Book Peers 41.3 22 % 5 %

TARGET PRICE 49.7 47 % 100 %

Conflicts of interest Corporate broking NO

Trading in corporate shares NO

Analyst ownership NO

Advising of corporate (strategy, marketing, debt, etc) NO

Research paid for by corporate YES

Provision of corporate access paid for by corporate NO

Link between AlphaValue and a banking entity NO

Brokerage activity at AlphaValue NO

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.alphavalue.com/Secure/Company/LongPdf/Controls/www.alphavalue.com

mailto:[email protected]

11/01/2013 A sensible acquisition to start the year. M&A /Corp. Action

Fact On 9 January, Poujoulat announced that it had acquired VA STAAL, a Danish company and a European leader for industrial steel stacks with a unique know-how in large size projects (up to 6m diameter and 130m high).

Analysis Thanks to this acquisition, the Poujoulat group becomes the European leader in large size projects with total turnover of around €35m in this business and a European market share of more than 20%. Bringing together the companies BEIRENS (manufacturing and installation of industrial stacks), MCC21 (audit, maintenance and services) and now VL STAAL, the Poujoulat group's industrial steel stacks division will offer a comprehensive range of products and services, generating 60% of its sales in export markets (versus c.15% for the Group as a whole). In this segment, Poujoulat will now lead the French, Scandinavian and German markets while also having a presence in Benelux, the UK, Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East and North Africa. In 2012, VL STAAL generated sales of around €15m and a net margin of over 10%, comfortably above that of the Group which should approach 4% in 2013e (without VL STAAL). Other than this boost to sales (+7% of external growth in 2013 thanks to this acquisition alone) and the associated expansion in margins (around +45bp over 2013), the synergies expected for the Group should also be significant.

Impact We will upgrade our forecasts to take into account the additional sales and the improvement in the Group's profitability following this acquisition.

11/01/2013 Target upgrade by 9.6%

2012 : € 3.49 vs 3.52 -0.69 %2013 : € 5.08 vs 4.22 +20.3 %

We have upgraded our 2013 (and 2014) EPS forecasts following the Poujoulat group’s acquisition of Danish company VL STAAL, which should generate 2013 turnover of around €16m for a net profit approaching €1.7m. We estimate the additional sales and net margin for 2013 associated with this transaction to be, respectively,+7% and +45bp.

€ 68.9 vs 63.0 +9.33 %

We have upgraded our 2013 (and 2014) EPS forecasts following the Poujoulat group’s acquisition of Danish company VL STAAL, which should generate 2013 turnover of around €16m for a net profit approaching €1.7m. We estimate the additional sales and net margin for 2013 associated with this transaction to be, respectively,+7% and +45bp.

Change in EPS

Change in DCF

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat (Buy)Building Prod. & Materials / France

Updates

January 11 2013 Copyright AlphaValue - 2013 – www.alphavalue.com Page 2

27/11/2012 Q3 acceleration in activity Publication Res./CA

Actualité In Q3 12, Poujoulat reported sales up by 4.2% to €43.9m, taking the sales growth over nine months to +6.3%, to €125m.

Analyse Q3 sales growth slowed relative to H1 (+7.5%), but note that the good first half performance was exclusively based on a very strong Q1(+14.5%), whereas Poujoulat had posted a marked slowdown in its Q1 sales (-0.5%). This thus represents good news in that the sales trend has again been positive over the past few months. The rebound in sales over this quarter was mainly in "France" (+5.7%, to €38.2m), whereas "export" activity saw a significant slowdown (-5.3%, to €5.7m). Against a depressed economic backdrop, the Group continues to gain market shares and pursue its international development, something which constitutes, alongside energy efficiency and wood energy, one of the Group's major future growth relays, explaining the substantial investment over the 2011-2013 period. Multiple marketing and commercial initiatives - and notably participation in the Vendée Globe - will also continue to drive sales and facilitate the launch of new products, innovation remaining at the heart of the Group's strategy. The pick-up in activity as of October currently underpins a growth forecast of around 10% for the full year 2012 (management guidance at the end of H1 was for growth of between +5% and 10%), with a H2 2012 result close to that of 2011, which will ultimately lead to significantly lower earnings.

Impact Little new news barring the more optimistic tone from management on the growth in full year sales. We remain buyers of the stock.


Poujoulat (Achat)Matériaux de construction / France

Mises à jour

11 janvier 2013 Copyright AlphaValue - 2013 – www.alphavalue.com Page 3

Stock Price and Target Price

Earnings Per Share & Opinion



Target Price & Opinion


Poujoulat is the leading European manufacturer of chimneys and flues for houses/apartments (65% of sales), industry (20% of sales) and public authorities (15% of sales). The Group is active both on the new construction and renovation segments, with an up-market positioning as regards all customer profiles, particularly specialised distributors (70% of sales) and builders/installers (15%). In terms of products, insulated ducts accounted for 44% of the Niort-based group’s sales, single wall flue pipes and flexible ducts represent 18%, roof outlets 15%, energy 13% and industrial chimneys 10%. In France, where more than 85% of Poujoulat’s business is generated (chimneys are voluminous products making transport costs very expensive), chimney sales grew substantially at the beginning of the 2000s, the market registering growth of nearly 95% between 2002 and 2006, driven by a number of favourable elements. Among these inciting factors, the creation of a tax credit on the purchase of wood-burning domestic heating appliances (from 40% in 2005 it was pushed up to 50% in 2006, before being progressively reduced since then, standing at 15% in 2012), the dynamism of the home maintenance market, boosted by a reduction in VAT to 5.5% on home improvements and alterations (taken back up to 7% in 2012), the rise in the cost of fossil fuels used for domestic heating (oil and gas) and a broader ecological awareness which explains the incitement of public authorities in favour of renewable energy producers (NB: renewable energies only represented 18% of world energy consumption in 2011, 11% for fuel wood alone, 4% for hydroelectricity and 1.5% for biomass/solar energy). Between 2007 and 2009, a period marked by new thermal regulations and a reduction in tax incentives, the fireplace market in France evolved towards more technical products. That is when Poujoulat opted to diversify into renewable energies – mainly into wood fuels, the prime renewable energy source used in buildings – to the point of becoming one of the leading players on the “fuel wood” market (wood pellets, densified logs and firewood). Today, it is estimated that 40 million cubic metres of wood are consumed each year in France, knowing that 6 million French households use wood as a source of energy. It is worth noting that Poujoulat’s first “premium” log factory, located in the department of the Indre (Bois Factory 36) has an annual capacity of 150,000 cubic metres. Very shortly, there will be two additional factories, one in the Loire (Bois Factory 42), the other in the Haute-Saône (Bois Factory 70), giving the company a total capacity of 350,000 cubic metres by the end of 2013. Established in 1950, and initially specialised in industrial sheet metal processing, Poujoulat moved into manufacturing stove pipes as from the 1960s, then into smoke evacuation ducts when, in 1975, the company was taken over by Yves Coirier (current Chairman of the Supervisory Board). In 1988, the company was floated on the Stock Exchange. At the beginning of the 90s, the company embarked on a process of external growth in France (acquiring Tôlerie Forézienne and Westaflex Bâtiment) and internationally, especially in Belgium (Poujoulat BeLux) and the United Kingdom (Poujoulat UK). In 2001, Poujoulat acquired the company Beirens. Between 2002 and 2006, Poujoulat recorded dual-digit sales growth, boosted by a favourable environment. 2007 was marked by a new phase in the company’s operational diversification with the creation of Euro Energies (wood fuel trading), which constituted a major turnaround in the development of the Group. Two years later, the German company LIVE GmbH (manufacturing and trading in metal conduits) was acquired. Between 2011 and 2012, Poujoulat successively launched Bois Factory 36, Bois Factory 70, Solaires-Energies (marketing photovoltaic systems) and Bois Factory 42, confirming its determination to intensify its presence in the renewable energy sector. From a more operational point of view, despite market conditions proving difficult in 2009 and a context marked by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, the instability of raw material costs and particularly mild temperatures, the Group has still managed to achieve a dual-digit pace of growth (+10.8% in 2010 and +15.9% in 2011), mainly due to the high performance of the “Wood and renewable energies” division, up 30% over the previous financial year. This division now accounts for some 8% of sales. Guidance for 2012 comprises annual sales growth close to 10%, a significant slowdown in construction and public contracts likely to be more than offset by the positive effects on Poujoulat’s business of the high prices of fossil fuels and the implementation of new thermal regulations. Looking ahead to 2013-2014, a significant proportion of sales growth should come from the “Wood and renewable energies” business, following the major investments made in this area in the period 2010 to 2014. It should also be noted that Poujoulat is in the process of setting up in China, with the aim of being operational by 2014, this market representing virtually half of the world industrial chimney market.

Businesses & Trends



Businesses & Trends


We address exposures (eg. how much of the turnover is exposed to the $ ) rather than sensitivities (say, how much a 5% move in the $ affects the bottom line). This is to make

comparisons easier and provides useful tools when extracting relevant data. Actually, the subject is rather complex on the ground. The default position is one of an investor managing in €. An investor in £ will obviously not react to a £ based stock trading partly in € as would a € based investor. In addition, certain circumstances can prove difficult to unravel such as for eg. a € based investor confronted to a Swiss company reporting in $ but with a quote in CHF... Sales exposure is probably straightforward but one has to be careful with deep cyclicals. Costs exposure is a bit less easy to determine (we do not allow for hedges as they can only be postponing the day of reckoning). How much of the equity is exposed to a given subject is rarely straightforward but can be quite telling In addition, subjects are frequently intertwined. A $ exposure may encompass all revenues in $ pegged currencies and an emerging currency exposure is likely to include $ pegged currencies as well. Exposure to global warming issues is frequently indirect and may require to stretch a bit imagination.

Sector 12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Change 12E/11 Change 13E/12E

€th of % total

€th of % total

Fabrication et négoce de con...

Advanced Materials

200,508 207,630 232,545 240,555 7,122 43 % 24,915 84 %

Bois et énergie solaire

Advanced Materials

13,432 21,148 30,525 41,475 7,716 46 % 9,377 32 %

Other -38,392 -36,528 (1)

-41,070 -45,030 1,864 11 % -4,542 -15 %

Total sales 175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000 16,702 100 % 29,750 100 %

Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues

1. Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

Revenues Costs Equity

Dollar 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

Emerging currencies 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.0 %

Key exposures

France 84.5 %

Belgium 4.1 %

UK 3.1 %

Europe 6.2 %

Other 2.1 %

Sales by geography



Businesses & Trends


http://www.alphavalue.com/Secure/Sector.aspx?sectorCurrentId=02119447-c505-dd11-b21f-001d920fd6a3




Historically, Poujoulat SA, the parent company, generates some 70% of net income, with net margins of between 4.5% and 5.50%. The second largest contributor to results is the Tôlerie Forézienne subsidiary (manufacturing of rigid metallic conduits for the French market), which registers some of the Group’s highest margins - Tolerie Forézienne and Poujoulat BeLux being the only two subsidiaries with margins near on 10% - followed by Westaflex Bâtiment (manufacturing of flexible metallic conduits for the French market), whose margins are significantly lower, at around 4%. The “Wood and renewable energies” activities are currently generating losses because of particularly high depreciation and factory openings which are progressive, so the business is not yet operating at full capacity. This business activity essentially involves dealing with and marketing to professionals who sell to private individuals (professional networks) – under the “Woodstock” and “Crépito” brand names – high-performance fuel wood for wood-fuelled heating appliances. It all starts with a rigorous selection of the wood from suppliers, followed by drying and preparation processes. The products are then packaged or shipped in bulk, knowing that production and storage capacities are sized to guarantee fuel availability all-year round. These products are permanently quality checked in the CERIC laboratory, which is the benchmark in the combustion of wood fuel. Since end-2011, Euro Energies is operating 3 high-performance fuel wood production sites: BF36 in the Indre, BF42 in the Loire and BF70 in Haute-Saône. This “Wood and renewable energies” activity, destined to achieve higher capacity over the next 3 years (according to management, within this time frame it should represent around 25% of the activity), recorded its heaviest loss in 2011 (€724k at the end of the first full financial year of Bois Factory 36 which delivered a loss of €575k, 2/3 of which coming from depreciation expenses). As fulfilling management’s ambitions regarding this activity is a crucial factor in the valuation of the Group, we have chosen to adopt a somewhat conservative attitude by estimating a net profit of about €1m in 2014, which would represent c. 10% of total Group net profit. Overall, Poujoulat Group’s net margins have proved relatively resilient throughout the crisis, moving up from 4.9% in 2007 to an average 5.9% in 2009 and 2010. Conversely, 2011 saw margins fall back quite significantly due to the soaring price of raw materials – the main raw material used is stainless steel, which represents about 50% of the costs of goods sold – but also, and especially, the increased investments - €23.5m in 2011 compared with €8.5m in 2010 and €4.5m in 2009 – and substantial commercial investments. In the long run, and to fully benefit from the market’s growth potential, sector players will need to pursue their efforts, specifically focusing on the post-tax credit scenario (as from 31/12/2015), which instigated the boom in sales as from the middle of the previous decade. The two major challenges will therefore be to maintain profitability in order to underpin innovation (with metal and energy raw material prices rising, this forces chimney manufacturers to pass on these increases in their selling prices, which equally impacts sales volumes), but also to guarantee coherence within the sector, as chimney retailing is extremely fragmented in France, effectively representing the weak link in the manufacturers’ value chain (the predominance of multi-brand sales outlets adversely affects the dissemination of brands for which the identity tends to become an overriding competitive advantage).

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Change 12E/11 Change 13E/12E

€thof % total €th

of % total

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques

8,904 8,347 10,536 11,096 -557 37 % 2,189 64 %

Bois et énergie solaire -724 -1,321 -24.9 939 -597 40 % 1,296 38 %

Other/cancellations -161 -505 (1) -572 -654 -344 23 % -67 -2 %

Total 8,019 6,521 9,940 11,380 -1,498 100 % 3,419 100 %

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées ...

4.44 % 4.02 % 4.53 % 4.61 %

Bois et énergie solaire -5.39 % -6.24 % -0.08 % 2.26 %

Total 4.57 % 3.39 % 4.48 % 4.80 %

Money Making

Divisional NET RESULT


Divisional NET RESULT margin



Money Making


Poujoulat is showing net debt of around €50m but it is important to note that only half of this figure constitutes genuine debt, insofar as some €30m is used to pay suppliers cash in return for a discount (tactical choice by management, in the knowledge that the discount rate is 7x higher than the cost of short-term funding, which enables Poujoulat to generate financial income almost equal to the total cost of its debt). As a result, the Poujoulat Group has almost no trade payables (around €10m). 2011 marked an important stage in Poujoulat’s development. This is because, its industrial investments, which amounted to about 8% of sales on average over the previous 5 years, soared to almost 14% of sales (€24m), and should remain buoyant in 2012 (nearly 9% of sales), especially in order to get the “Wood and renewable energies” activity up to full steam, which already represented more than half of the investment figure in 2011. The investment programme, whose 3 key focus areas are energy efficiency, renewable energies and exports (market entry into China), should ease back by end-2014. At the same time, the WCR has also increased significantly since 2010, mainly due to the increase in the “stocks” item (60% of this increase is due to raw materials and fuels), but also to the “trade receivables” item, in a context of an increase in average payment terms and relatively long supply lead-times. The combination of these two elements – high investments and increase in WCR – is the reason for 2011’s higher debt ratios, gearing above 50% (against less than 40% in 2010), but especially the net debt/EBITDA ratio at more than 2.5x (against 1.3x in 2010, the slight decrease in 2011 EBITDA accentuating the effect slightly). As dividends were no longer covered by the FCF, and the investment programme had not been completed, the company decided to suspend its uninterrupted dividend growth policy, despite a particularly low payout (historically around 15%). Nevertheless, gross debt – evenly balanced between short and long-term debt – remains at a reasonable level. EBITDA coverage of financial expenses therefore exceeds 10x. It should also be specified that the average maturity of this gross debt is approximately 4.5 years, which is a relatively short maturity for an industrial business. The Group works with diversified funding sources. As at 31/12/2011, Poujoulat had €38m worth of short-term credit lines available.

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

EBITDA €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844

Funds from operations (FFO) €th 13,529 7,679 16,609 17,905

Ordinary shareholders' equity €th 66,757 67,114 75,520 85,347

Gross debt €th 60,746 69,746 75,746 74,746

o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt €th 29,593 (2) 33,977 (2) 36,900 (2) 36,413 (2)

o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt €th 25,774 29,593 32,138 31,714

o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt €th 5,379 6,176 6,707 6,619

+ Gross Cash €th 15,186 17,430 13,878 14,294

= Net debt / (cash) €th 45,560 52,316 61,868 60,452

Other financing €th 60,746 69,746 75,746 74,746

Undrawn committed financing facilities €th 38,000

Gearing (at book value) % 52.1 72.9 75.6 71.7

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R) x 2.59 2.99 2.83 2.54

Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R) x 3.60 4.12 3.58 3.24

Interest cover (x) x 37.2 17.4 44.2 52.1

FFO/Net debt % 29.7 14.7 26.8 29.6

(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt x 1.19 0.35 0.15 0.46

"Cash" FCF/ST debt x -0.60 -0.16 -0.23 0.07

Debt

Funding - Liquidity

2. The < 1 year high debt policy is based on a management choice in the current context of very low rates (cash payment to suppliers in return for discount).



Debt


Due to the absence of real comparables for Poujoulat’s activities, the peers used in our valuation based on the comparables valuation method come from very disparate sectors such as: Construction & Construction Materials, Non-Food Retail, Capital Goods,… Our DCF model is based on an average growth of sales of 5% and an EBITDA of 5.75%, hence meaning that EBITDA margin should reach 11% by 2022, which in our view is conservative given the future high margins of the “Wood and renewable energies” activity. Furthermore, the currently very high CAPEX figures should progressively be reduced in the years to come (investment peak in 2011), likewise for the frequency of acquisitions. For our Sum of the Parts valuation, we value the two activities by using a price-earnings ratio of 10x for the "Chimneys and associated products” business and a price of €16m for the "Wood and renewable energies” division, which corresponds to the price at which the capital increase was made. At end-December 2012, a set of quoted peers comprising companies such as Centrotec (13.5x), Rougier (23.7x), Somfy (13.6x), Cogra (23.6x), Moulinvest (14.1x) and Sika (22.5x) is trading at significantly higher price-earnings levels (pre-exceptional PE). These ratios will apply to the average result for the years 2012 to 2014 for the “Chimney” activity and to a conservative 2014 result for the “Wood and renewable energies” activity”.

Benchmarks Values (€) Upside Weight

DCF 68.9 103 % 35 %

NAV/SOTP per share 34.7 2 % 20 %

EV/Ebitda Peers 45.2 33 % 20 %

P/E Peers 59.9 77 % 10 %

Dividend Yield Peers 15.3 -55 % 10 %

P/Book Peers 41.3 22 % 5 %

Target Price 49.7 47 %

Computed on 18 month forecasts P/E (x) Ev/Ebitda (x) P/Book (x) Yield(%)

Peers ratios 11.8 6.92 1.05 4.18

Poujoulat's ratios 6.69 5.91 0.86 1.89

Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 %

Default comparison based valuation (€) 59.9 45.2 41.3 15.3

Saint-Gobain 11.1 6.84 0.92 3.89

Legrand 15.4 8.72 2.40 3.42

UPM-Kymmene 10.4 6.03 0.62 7.11

Imerys 11.0 6.54 1.44 3.52

Valuation

Valuation Summary

Comparison based valuation



Valuation


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Growth 12/15E 12/22E

Sales €th 175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000 5.00 % 248,850 350,157

EBITDA €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844 5.75 % 25,215 37,293

EBITDA Margin % 10.0 9.10 9.84 10.1 10.1 10.7

Change in WCR €th -7,932 3,908 -8,418 -4,244 2.00 % -4,329 -4,973

Total operating cash flows (pre tax) €th 9,723 15,399 13,433 19,600 20,886 32,320

Corporate tax €th -4,032 -3,212 -4,896 -5,605 2.00 % -5,717 -6,567

Net tax shield €th -99.9 -206 -134 -131 0.00 % -131 -131

Capital expenditure €th -23,278 -17,000 -16,500 -11,000 -3.50 % -10,615 -8,272

Capex/Sales % -13.3 -8.84 -7.43 -4.64 -4.27 -2.36

Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes)

€th -17,687 -5,018 -8,096 2,864 4,423 17,350

Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF purposes

€th

Free cash flow adjusted €th -17,687 -5,018 -8,096 2,864 4,423 17,350

Discounted free cash flows €th -17,687 -5,018 -7,515 2,467 3,537 8,238

Invested capital € 117 123 141 149 144 112

DCF Valuation Per Share

WACC % 7.73

PV of cashflow FY1-FY11 €th 44,429

FY11CF €th 17,697

Normalised long-term growth"g" % 2.00

Terminal value €th 308,700

PV terminal value €th 146,577

PV terminal value in % of total value % 76.7

Total PV €th 191,006

Avg net debt (cash) at book value €th 57,092

Provisions €th 2,310

Unrecognised actuarial losses (gains) €th 0.00

Financial assets at market price €th 0.00

Minorities interests (fair value) €th -3,130

Equity value €th 134,734

Number of shares Th 1,956

Implied equity value per share € 68.9

Assessing The Cost Of Capital

Synthetic default risk free rate % 4.00

Target equity risk premium % 5.00

Tax advantage of debt finance (normalised)

% 30.0

Average debt maturity Year 5

Sector asset beta x 0.87

Debt beta x 0.30

Market capitalisation €th 66,289

Net debt (cash) at book value €th 52,316

Net debt (cash) at market value €th 50,082

Company debt spread bp 150

Marginal Company cost of debt % 5.50

Company beta (leveraged) x 1.33

Company gearing at market value % 78.9

Company market gearing % 44.1

Required return on geared equity % 10.7

Cost of debt % 3.85

Cost of ungeared equity % 8.36

WACC % 7.73

DCF Calculation



DCF


% owned

Valuation technique

Multiple used

Valuation at 100%

(€th)

Stake valuation

(€th)

In currency per share

(€)

% of gross assets

Cheminées et produit... 100 % PE 10.0 91,500 91,500 46.8 90.1 %

Bois et énergies reno... 100 % Adj.

historical price

16,000 16,000 8.18 15.8 %

Operating revenues

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Ebitda margin

Operating profit

Operating margin

Adj. Attrib. Net profit

Free cash flow

France

Belgium

UK

Europe

Other

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Other

Total sales

NET RESULT Analysis





Other/cancellations

Other/cancellations

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EBITDA

NAV/SOTP Calculation

1. Net debt of the parent company Poujoulat SA

2. Provisions and minority interests



NAV/SOTP (edit)


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of which increases/(...

Paid taxes

Paid taxes

Actual dividends recei...

Exceptional items

Exceptional items

Paid taxes

Exceptional items

Other operating cash ...


Total operating cash f...




Capital expenditure

Capital expenditure

Capital expenditure



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Total investment flows


Capital expenditure

Net investments in sh...

Capex as a % of depr...

Net investments in sh...

Other investment flows

Net interest expense



Dividends (parent co...



Of which (acquisition...

Of which (acquisition...

of which cash intere...


Dividends to minoritie...


New shareholders' eq...







of which (acquisition...

Roe (return on equity...

Shareholders funds (...

Net debt

Average gearing

Capex

Change in gross debt

Total financial flows


Other financial flows

Change in cash positi...


Change in net financi...

Free cash flow (pre di...



Change in scope of c...

----


Change in net debt p...


Capitalised R&D

Goodwill

Ordinary shareholder...

BALANCE SHEET

Contracts & Rights (in...

Other intangible assets

Goodwill

Goodwill

Goodwill

Total intangible

Total intangible



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Total intangible

Concession intangibl...

Tangible fixed assets

Other intangible assets




Financial fixed assets...


Financial fixed assets

Financial hedges (LT ...

Other financial assets...

of which available f...

WCR

WCR

WCR

WCR

of which trade & rec...

of which inventories ...

of which payables (+)

of which other curre...

Other current assets

Other assets

Other assets

of which tax assets (+)

Total assets (net of s...





Quasi Equity & Prefer...




Gross debt

Pension ratio

o/w Less than 1 yea...

o/w 1 to 5 year - Gr...

of which Y+2

of which Y+3

of which Y+4

of which Y+5

o/w Beyond 5 years...

Preference shares

Quasi Equity & Prefer...

Minority interests

Provisions for pensions

Minority interests

Minority interests

Minority interests




Other provisions for ri...



Deferred tax liabilities

Total provisions for ri...



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Total provisions for ri...

Tax liabilities

Tax liabilities

Other liabilities

Other liabilities

Other liabilities

Net debt / (cash)

Total liabilities and sh...

Net debt (cash)

Net debt (cash)

Net debt (cash)

+ Gross Cash

= Net debt / (cash)

----

Total liabilities and ...

Total liab. and shareh...

Average net debt / (c...

Bank borrowings

Issued bonds

Financial leases liabili...

Mortgages

Other financing

of which commercial...

----

----

Parent company net d...

Operating leases and ...

Off B/S business guar...

Contingent considerat...

Y-1 shareholders' eq...

+ Net profit of year

- Dividends (parent cy)

+ Additions to equity

o/w reduction (addit...

o/w stock option pr...

- Unrecognised actua...

+ Comprehensive inc...

Comprehensive inco...

= Year end sharehold...

EV/EBITDA(R)

CAPITAL EMPLOYED

Capital employed afte...


EV/EBIT (underlying ...

Market Cap

EV/Sales

PROFITABILITY AN...

EV/Invested capital

ROE (after tax)

ROE (after tax)

Market cap

ROCE

ROCE (Nopat/net ca...

Gearing (at book val...

Gearing (at book val...

Europe

North America



NAV/SOTP (edit)


+ Provisions (includin...

+ Unrecognised actua...

Adj. Net debt/EBITD...

Adj. Net debt/EBITD...

+ Net debt at year end

+ Leases debt equival...

Interest cover (x)

Interest cover (x)

VALUATION RATIOS

- Provisions for reserv...

- Financial fixed asset...

EV/EBITDA(R)

Reference P/E (benc...

Reference P/E (benc...

+ Minority interests (f...

= Enterprise Value

Free cash flow yield


Undrawn committed fi...

PER SHARE DATA

Adjusted EPS (bfr gwi...

Growth in EPS

Reported EPS

Net dividend per share

Free cash flow per sh...

Operating cash flow p...

Book value per share

Restated NAV per sh...

----

Number of ordinary s...

Share class 2

Treasury stock (year ...

Number of shares net...


No. of shares net of tr...

Share class 3

Share class 4

Ordinaries to class ...

ROCE



Number of equivalent ...

Number of shares ma...

Treasury stock (year ...

Number of diluted sha...


Benchmark EPS

EPS before gwill amo...

Benchmark EPS


Number of common s...

Growth in EPS


Dividend

Conversion of debt i...

Goodwill per share (di...

EPS after goodwill a...

Settlement of casha...



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Probable settlement...

Reported EPS

Book value per share

Other commitments...

Increase in shares ou...



Operating Cash flow ...


----

Adjusted EPS

Goodwill per share (di...

EPS after goodwill a...



EPS before goodwill ...

Actual payment

Preferential dividend

Payout ratio

P/Book

P/Book

Adjusted P/E

Dividend yield

Reported P/E

Dividend yield

Sales

EV/EBITDA(R)

EV CALCULATION

P/Book

Net result margin

Dividend yield

Market cap

Market cap

+ Provisions

Provisions

Attributable net profit

Preferred dividend yield


Average stock price

Average preferred sto...

Unrecognised acturial...

+ Unrecognised acturi...

ROCE (NOPAT+leas...

----

Goodwill

Accumulated good...

All intangible assets

Accumulated intang...

Financial hedges (LT ...

Capitalised R&D

PV of non-capitalised ...

Other fixed assets

Accumulated depre...

WCR

Capital employed bef...

Other assets

Net debt at year end



NAV/SOTP (edit)


+ Net debt at year end

----



Other

Total capital employed

CAPITAL INTENSITY

Operating cash flow (...

Reinvestment rate (ca...

Capital payout ratio (...

Unrecognised actuari...

Leases debt equivalent

+ Leases debt equival...


- Financial fixed asset...

ROE (after tax)

ROE (after tax)

ROCE (NOPAT/(net) ...


+ Minority interests (f...

Minority interests (fair...

EV

= EV

Gearing (at book value)

Gearing

Gearing (at book value)

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA...

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA...

EV/EBITDA(R)

EV/EBITDA(R)

EV/Sales

EV/Sales

Interest cover (x)

Adjusted Gross Debt...

Interest cover (x)

FFO/Net debt

Total debt gross/mark...

(Gross cash+ "cash" ...

"Cash" FCF/ST debt

Tax burden (Net inco...

Interest burden (preta...

EBIT margin (EBIT/sa...

Assets rotation (Sales...

Financial leverage (A...

ROE

Synthetic default risk f...

Target equity risk pr...

Tax advantage of deb...

Average debt maturity

Sector asset beta

Sector Asset Beta

Debt beta

Market capitalisation

Net debt (cash) at bo...

Net debt (cash) at ma...

Company debt spread



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Company debt spread

Marginal Company co...

Company beta (lever...

Company gearing at ...

Company market gea...

Required return on ge...

Cost of debt

Cost of ungeared equity

WACC

WACC

Keys to long term

Sales growth out years

EBITDA growth out y...

WC growth out years

Taxes growth out years

Tax shield growth out ...

Interest charges and t...

Capex growth out years

Implicit CAGR of free ...

Implicit CAGR of last ...

Total discounted free ...

Total AV discounted f...

Sales

EBITDA

EBITDA Margin

Change in WCR


Corporate tax

Net tax shield

Capital expenditure

Capex/Sales

Pre financing costs F...

Various add backs (in...

Free cash flow adjusted

Discounted free cash ...

Invested capital

ALTERNATIVE ALP...

AlphaValue narrow F...

Various add backs (in...

Interest charges and t...

Alternative AV FCF a...

AV discounted free ca...

WACC

PV of cashflow FY1-...

FY11CF

Normalised long-term...

Terminal value

PV terminal value

PV terminal value in ...

Total PV

Avg net debt (cash) at...

Provisions


Financial assets at m...

Minorities interests (f...

Equity value



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Equity value

Number of shares

Implied equity value p...

Normalised equity yield

Synthetic default risk f...

Risk free rate 10 year...

Risk free rate 10 year £

Risk premium target

Risk premium comput...

Discount rate : US

Discount rate : UK

Discount rate : Euroz...

Discount rate : Nordic...

Discount rate : Switze...

Expected wage inflati...






Bonds: normalised ex...

Equities : normalised ...

Property : normalised ...

Other/alternative ass...

Cash: normalised exp...

Expected average re...

Average term of pay...

Years needed to satis...

Annual increase in he...

Normalised corporate...

----

Average workforce

South Americas

Asia

Other key countries

----

Total staff costs

Wages and salaries

of which social secu...

Equity linked payments

Pension related costs

Benefits related paym...

----

ASSUMPTIONS

----

ACTUARIAL: PLAN...

% of assets in equities

% of assets in bonds

% of assets in property

% of other/alternative ...

% of assets in cash e...

Total

US exposure

UK exposure

Euro exposure

Nordic countries

Switzerland



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Other

Total

----

Financial assumptions

Company variables of...

Discount rate

Company discount rate


Company Future sala...

Future salary increase

Total benefits provisio...

Expected rate of retur...

Company Expected r...

of which funded pen...

AlphaValue variables ...

AlphaValue discount r...

AlphaValue Discount ...

of which unfunded p...

AlphaValue Future sa...

AlphaValue future sal...

of which benefits / h...


AlphaValue expected ...

AlphaValue Expected...

Short term AV expect...






Average term of pay...

Expected average re...

Annual rate of increas...

Corporate tax rate

Years needed to satis...

Corridor

Funded status surplu...

Unfunded status surpl...

Total surplus / (deficit)

----

Total unrecognised a...

Pension ratio

Company discount rate

----

Normalised recomput...

Provision (B/S) on fu...

Company future salar...

Provision (B/S) on un...


Company expected ra...

Total pension provisio...


Other benefits (health...

Other benefits (health...

Total benefit provisions

Funded obligations p...

Unfunded obligations ...

Total periodic costs



NAV/SOTP (edit)


of which financial co...

of which incl. in labo...

of which incl. in inte...

Balance beginning of ...

Current service cost

Interest expense

Employees' contributi...

Impact of change in a...

of which impact of c...

of which impact of c...

Pension payments

Changes to scope of ...

Currency translation ...

Pension payments

Year end obligation

Other

Year end obligation

Funded : Impact of ac...

Value at beginning

Company expected re...

Actuarial gain /(loss)

Employer's contribution

Employer's contribution




Pension payments

Other

Value end of period

Value end of period

----

Actual and normalise...

FUNDED CORRIDO...

PBO total

Plan value

----


10% corridor at the b...

Beyond 10% linked to...

Average expected re...

Actuarial (gain) / loss ...

----




Subtotal of actuarial (...

----


----

FUNDED B/S IMPLI...

( Deficit ) / surplus o...

Unrecognized actuari...

Minimum liability adju...

Other

Net balance

Balance beginning of ...

Current service cost



NAV/SOTP (edit)


Other

Year end obligation

Interest expense


Impact of change in a...

of which Impact of c...

of which Impact of c...


Pension payments


Pension payments

Year end obligation

Unfunded : Impact of ...

----

UNFUNDED CORRI...


10% corridor at the b...

Beyond 10% linked to...

Average expected re...


----



Subtotal of actuarial (...

----


----

UNFUNDED B/S IMP...

( Deficit ) / surplus o...


Minimum liability adju...

Other

Net balance

Comparison based va...

DCF based

NAV based

PE based

EV/EBITDA based

P/book based

Yield based

Valuation

Other -5,922 -3.03 -5.83 %

Total gross assets 101,578 51.9 100 %

Net cash/(debt) by year end -30,586 (1) -15.6 -30.1 %

Commitments to pay -3,105 (2) -1.59 -3.06 %

Commitments received

NAV/SOTP 67,887 34.7 66.8 %

Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Th) 1,956

NAV/SOTP per share (€) 34.7

Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%) 2.35

EV/EBITDA

Liquidity 1 = (gross c...

Payout ratio

Compared companies



NAV/SOTP (edit)




NAV/SOTP (edit)


- The Group is present in about 30 countries through 16 companies and is currently in the process of setting up in China, which constitutes a very high potential industrial market. - The Poujoulat Group is at the leading edge of internet development with 20 websites to its credit. Furthermore, poujoulat.fr is one of the most visited sites in the building sector, having recorded 2 million visits in 2011. - Poujoulat owns all its assets and its balance sheet contains virtually no goodwill or other intangible assets. - In a spirit of economy and ecology, 70% of the Group’s premises are heated using wood off-cuts from Bois Factory 36, and Poujoulat has also undertaken to replace the majority of its light fittings which should cut the Group’s lighting consumption in two. - Poujoulat products are eco-design and more than 95% recyclable.

Name % owned Of which % voting rights

Of which % free to float

Holding d'animation contrôlée par la famille Coirier 42.5 % 47.2 % 0.00 %

Famille Coirier 32.0 % 36.0 % 0.00 %

Apparent free float 25.5 %

Worth Knowing

Shareholders



Worth Knowing


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Sales €th 175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000

Sales growth % 15.9 9.51 15.5 6.76

Sales per employee €th 129 137 153 157

Purchases and external costs (incl. IT) €th -103,880 -115,662 -132,744 -141,599

Staff costs €th -51,050 -56,250 -64,400 -68,613

Operating lease payments €th

Cost of sales/COGS (indicative) €th

EBITDA €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844

EBITDA(R) €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844

EBITDA(R) margin % 10.0 9.10 9.84 10.1

EBITDA(R) per employee €th 13.0 12.4 15.1 15.8

Depreciation €th -5,607 -6,966 -6,890 -6,762

Depreciations/Sales % 3.19 3.62 3.10 2.85

Amortisation €th

Additions to provisions €th -434 -560 -480 -510

Reduction of provisions €th 835 460 800 850

Underlying operating profit €th 12,391 10,425 15,281 17,422

Underlying operating margin % 7.06 5.42 6.88 7.35

Other income/expense (cash) €th 0.00 -7.00 -7.00 0.00

Other inc./ exp. (non cash; incl. assets revaluation) €th

Earnings from joint venture(s) €th

Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation €th

Operating profit (EBIT) €th 12,391 10,418 15,274 17,422

Interest expenses €th -1,308 -1,325 -1,365 -1,345

of which effectively paid cash interest expenses €th -94.0

Financial income €th 1,214 820 920 908

Other financial income (expense) €th -239 -180 0.00 0.00

Net financial expenses €th -333 -685 -445 -437

of which related to pensions €th -85.0 -98.9 -103

Pre-tax profit before exceptional items €th 12,058 9,733 14,829 16,985

Exceptional items and other (before taxes) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

of which cash (cost) from exceptionals €th

Current tax €th -4,032 -3,212 -4,896 -5,605

Impact of tax loss carry forward €th

Deferred tax €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Corporate tax €th -4,032 -3,212 -4,896 -5,605

Tax rate % 33.4 33.0 33.0 33.0

Net margin % 4.57 3.39 4.47 4.80

Equity associates €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Actual dividends received from equity holdings €th

Minority interests €th 118 313 0.00 0.00

Actual dividends paid out to minorities €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Income from discontinued operations €th

Attributable net profit €th 8,144 6,834 9,933 11,380

Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other adjustments €th

Adjusted attributable net profit €th 8,144 6,834 9,933 11,380

Interest expense savings €th

Fully diluted adjusted attr. net profit €th 8,144 6,834 9,933 11,380

NOPAT €th 8,674 7,357 10,766 12,267

Consolidated P&L



Financials


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Adjusted P/E x 7.35 9.61 6.67 5.83

Reported P/E x 7.35 9.61 6.67 5.83

EV/EBITDA(R) x 6.08 6.70 5.97 5.42

P/Book x 0.90 0.98 0.88 0.78

Dividend yield % 2.20 1.86 1.84 2.03

Free cash flow yield % -29.9 -8.37 -12.7 3.86

Average stock price € 30.6 33.6 33.9 33.9

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

EBITDA €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844

Change in WCR €th -7,932 3,908 -8,418 -4,244

of which (increases)/decr. in receivables €th -3,394 12,518 -6,257 -3,155

of which (increases)/decr. in inventories €th -11,811 -2,095 -6,906 -3,482

of which increases/(decr.) in payables €th 3,425 -3,554 2,117 1,067

of which increases/(decr.) in other curr. liab. €th 3,848 -2,961 2,629 1,326

Actual dividends received from equity holdings €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Paid taxes €th -4,367 -3,212 -4,896 -5,605

Exceptional items €th

Other operating cash flows €th 393 -6,000 0.00 0.00

Total operating cash flows €th 5,691 12,187 8,538 13,995

Capital expenditure €th -23,278 -17,000 -16,500 -11,000

Capex as a % of depreciation & amort. % 415 244 239 163

Net investments in shares €th -15.0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other investment flows €th 34.0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total investment flows €th -23,259 -17,000 -16,500 -11,000

Net interest expense €th -333 -685 -445 -437

of which cash interest expense €th -94.0 -600 -346 -334

Dividends (parent company) €th -1,300 -1,343 -1,244 -1,244

Dividends to minorities interests €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

New shareholders' equity €th 645 0.00 0.00 0.00

of which (acquisition) release of treasury shares €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Change in gross debt €th 8,638 9,000 6,000 -1,000

Other financial flows €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total financial flows €th 7,889 7,057 4,410 -2,578

Change in scope of consolidation, exchange rates & other €th -673 0.00 0.00 0.00

Change in cash position €th -10,352 2,244 -3,552 417

Change in net debt position €th -18,990 -6,756 -9,552 1,417

Free cash flow (pre div.) €th -17,920 -5,498 -8,407 2,558

Operating cash flow (clean) €th 5,691 12,187 8,538 13,995

Reinvestment rate (capex/tangible fixed assets) % 22.4 26.0 22.0 13.9

Valuation Key Data

Cashflow Statement



Financials


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Goodwill €th 2,173 2,173 2,173 2,173

Other intangible assets €th 997 997 997 997

Total intangible €th 3,170 3,170 3,170 3,170

Tangible fixed assets €th 55,342 65,376 74,986 79,224

Financial fixed assets (part of group strategy) €th 0.00

Other financial assets (investment purpose mainly) €th 987 1,073 1,073 1,073

of which available for sale €th 60.0 0.00 0.00 0.00

WCR €th 58,304 54,396 62,814 67,058

of which trade & receivables (+) €th 52,954 40,436 46,693 49,848

of which inventories (+) €th 42,535 44,630 51,536 55,019

of which payables (+) €th 17,232 13,678 15,795 16,862

of which other current liabilities (+) €th 19,953 16,992 19,621 20,947

Other current assets €th 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0

of which tax assets (+) €th 0.00

Total assets (net of short term liabilities) €th 117,842 124,054 142,082 150,564

Ordinary shareholders' equity (group share) €th 66,757 67,114 75,520 85,347

Minority interests €th 1,687 1,374 1,374 1,374

Provisions for pensions €th 2,125 1,731 1,800 1,872

Other provisions for risks and liabilities €th 547 579 579 579

Deferred tax liabilities €th 1,166 940 940 940

Other liabilities €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net debt / (cash) €th 45,560 52,316 61,868 60,452

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity €th 117,842 124,054 142,082 150,564

Average net debt / (cash) €th 34,749 48,938 57,092 61,160

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

EV/EBITDA(R) x 6.08 6.70 5.97 5.42

EV/EBIT (underlying profit) x 8.63 11.2 8.54 7.42

EV/Sales x 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.55

EV/Invested capital x 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.86

Market cap €th 59,887 65,653 66,289 66,289

+ Provisions (including pensions) €th 2,672 2,310 2,379 2,451

+ Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

+ Net debt at year end €th 45,560 52,316 61,868 60,452

- Financial fixed assets (fair value) & Others €th

+ Minority interests (fair value) €th -1,180 -3,130 0.00 0.00

= Enterprise Value €th 106,939 117,149 130,536 129,191

Balance Sheet

EV Calculations



Financials


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Adjusted EPS (bfr gwill amort. & dil.) € 4.16 3.49 5.08 5.82

Growth in EPS % -6.80 -16.1 45.3 14.6

Reported EPS € 4.16 3.49 5.08 5.82

Net dividend per share € 0.68 0.63 0.63 0.69

Free cash flow per share € -9.16 -2.81 -4.30 1.31

Operating cash flow per share € 2.91 6.23 4.36 7.15

Book value per share € 34.1 34.3 38.6 43.6

Number of ordinary shares Th 1,990 1,990 1,990 1,990

Number of equivalent ordinary shares (year end) Th 1,990 1,990 1,990 1,990

Number of shares market cap. Th 1,990 1,990 1,990 1,990

Treasury stock (year end) Th 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0

Number of shares net of treasury stock (year end) Th 1,956 1,956 1,956 1,956

Number of common shares (average) Th 1,956 1,956 1,956 1,956

Conversion of debt instruments into equity Th

Settlement of cashable stock options Th

Probable settlement of non mature stock options Th

Other commitments to issue new shares Th

Increase in shares outstanding (average) Th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Number of diluted shares (average) Th 1,956 1,956 1,956 1,956

Goodwill per share (diluted) € 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EPS after goodwill amortisation (diluted) € 4.16 3.49 5.08 5.82

EPS before goodwill amortisation (non-diluted) € 4.16 3.49 5.08 5.82

Actual payment €

Payout ratio % 16.2 17.9 12.3 11.8

Capital payout ratio (div +share buy back/net income) % 16.5 18.2 12.5

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

EBITDA €th 17,597 17,491 21,851 23,844

Funds from operations (FFO) €th 13,529 7,679 16,609 17,905


Gross debt €th 60,746 69,746 75,746 74,746

o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt €th 29,593 (2) 33,977 (2) 36,900 (2) 36,413 (2)

o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt €th 25,774 29,593 32,138 31,714

o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt €th 5,379 6,176 6,707 6,619

+ Gross Cash €th 15,186 17,430 13,878 14,294

= Net debt / (cash) €th 45,560 52,316 61,868 60,452

Other financing €th 60,746 69,746 75,746 74,746

Undrawn committed financing facilities €th 38,000

Gearing (at book value) % 52.1 72.9 75.6 71.7

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R) x 2.59 2.99 2.83 2.54

Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R) x 3.60 4.12 3.58 3.24

Interest cover (x) x 37.2 17.4 44.2 52.1

FFO/Net debt % 29.7 14.7 26.8 29.6

(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt x 1.19 0.35 0.15 0.46

"Cash" FCF/ST debt x -0.60 -0.16 -0.23 0.07

Per Share Data

Funding - Liquidity 2. The < 1 year high debt policy is based on a management choice in the current context of very low rates (cash payment to suppliers in return for discount).



Financials


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Tax burden (Net income/pretax pre excp income) x 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.67

Interest burden (pretax inc./EBIT) x 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.97

EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) % 7.06 5.42 6.88 7.35

Assets rotation (Sales/Avg assets) x 1.70 1.59 1.67 1.62

Financial leverage (Avg assets /Avg equity) x 1.63 1.81 1.87 1.82

ROE % 12.9 10.2 13.9 14.1

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Y-1 shareholders' equity €th 60,206 66,695 67,114 75,520

+ Net profit of year €th 8,144 6,834 9,933 11,380

- Dividends (parent cy) €th -1,300 -1,343 -1,244 -1,244

+ Additions to equity €th 645 0.00 0.00 0.00

o/w reduction (addition) to treasury shares €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

- Unrecognised actuarial gains/(losses) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

+ Comprehensive income recognition €th -1,000 -5,072 -283 -309

= Year end shareholders' equity €th 66,695 67,114 75,520 85,347

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Sales per staff €th 129 137 153 157

Staff costs per employee €th -37.6 -40.0 -44.5 -45.6

Change in staff costs % 14.2 10.2 14.5 6.54

Change in unit cost of staff % -42.6 6.50 11.1 2.51

Average workforce unit 1,358 1,405 1,448 1,505

Europe unit 1,345 1,390 1,430 1,475

North America unit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

South Americas unit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Asia unit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other key countries unit 13.0 15.0 18.0 30.0

Total staff costs €th -51,050 -56,250 -64,400 -68,613

Wages and salaries €th -51,050 -56,250 -64,400 -68,613

of which social security contributions €th -11,812 -13,000 -13,850 -14,690

Equity linked payments €th

Pension related costs €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques €th 200,508 207,630 232,545 240,555

Bois et énergie solaire €th 13,432 21,148 30,525 41,475

Other €th -38,392 -36,528 (1) -41,070 -45,030

Total sales €th 175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

NET RESULT Analysis

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques €th 8,904 8,347 10,536 11,096

Bois et énergie solaire €th -724 -1,321 -24.9 939

Other/cancellations €th -161 -505 (1) -572 -654

Total €th 8,019 6,521 9,940 11,380

NET RESULT margin % 4.57 3.39 4.48 4.80

ROE Analysis (Dupont's Breakdown)

Shareholder's Equity Review (Group Share)

Staffing Analytics

Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues 1. Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

Divisional Breakdown Of Earnings 1. Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity



Financials


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

France % 86.8 84.5 (3)

Belgium % 3.69 4.15

UK % 2.62 3.11

Europe % 5.50 (4) 6.22 (4)

Other % 1.43 2.07 (1)

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

ROCE (NOPAT+lease exp.*(1-tax))/(net) cap employed adjusted % 7.43 5.98 7.64 8.21

Goodwill €th 2,173 2,173 2,173 2,173

Accumulated goodwill amortisation €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

All intangible assets €th 997 997 997 997

Accumulated intangible amortisation €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Financial hedges (LT derivatives) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Capitalised R&D €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PV of non-capitalised lease obligations €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other fixed assets €th 55,342 65,376 74,986 79,224

Accumulated depreciation €th 48,709 0.00 0.00 0.00

Capital employed before depreciation €th 165,525 122,942 140,970 149,452

WCR €th 58,304 54,396 62,814 67,058

Other assets €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Capital employed after deprec. (Invested capital) €th 116,816 122,942 140,970 149,452

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques €th

Bois et énergie solaire €th

Other €th 116,816 122,942 140,970 149,452

Total capital employed €th 116,816 122,942 140,970 149,452

Revenue Breakdown By Country 3. First full year of activity for Solaires-Energies (marketing photovoltaic systems), Bois-Factory 70 (transforming and marketing fuel wood, acquired in Q4 2011) and MCC2I (expertise and maintenance of industrial chimneys, acquired in Q4 2011)

4. Particularly Germany


Capital Employed

Divisional Breakdown Of Capital



Financials


In 2011 the Poujoulat Group employed 1,358 staff – including some 200 people abroad, mainly in Poland, Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom – compared to half that number in 2010. The bulk of the staff breaks down into workers (59%), management staff (31%) and sales staff (6%). In addition to the continuing growth in the Group’s staff numbers over the last 15 years (multiplied by 4 over the period, with 150 jobs created in 2011 alone), it should be noted that the profiles have changed considerably, moving to more qualified positions, thanks to a programme of training/innovation costing on average 4% of the total payroll. As regards its commitments in terms of pensions proper, they only amounted to some €2m in 2011, only just exceeding 3% of group equity. Being regularly provisioned, pension obligations present no concern.

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Pension ratio % 3.08 2.51 2.33 2.15


Total benefits provisions €th 2,125 1,731 1,800 1,872

of which funded pensions €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

of which unfunded pensions €th 2,125 1,731 1,800 1,872

of which benefits / health care €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Company discount rate % 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.50

Normalised recomputed discount rate % 4.00

Company future salary increase % 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Normalised recomputed future salary increase % 3.00

Company expected rate of return on plan assets % 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Normalised recomputed expd rate of return on plan assets % 1.00

Funded : Impact of actuarial assumptions €th 0.00

Unfunded : Impact of actuarial assumptions €th 263

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

US exposure %

UK exposure %

Euro exposure % 100 100 100 100

Nordic countries %

Switzerland %

Other %

Total % 100 100 100 100

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Funded status surplus / (deficit) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unfunded status surplus / (deficit) €th -2,125 -2,473 -2,572 -2,674

Total surplus / (deficit) €th -2,125 -2,473 -2,572 -2,674

Total unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Provision (B/S) on funded pension €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Provision (B/S) on unfunded pension €th 2,125 1,731 1,800 1,872

Other benefits (health care) provision €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total benefit provisions €th 2,125 1,731 1,800 1,872

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Funded obligations periodic costs €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unfunded obligations periodic costs €th 0.00 -85.0 -98.9 -103

Total periodic costs €th 0.00 -85.0 -98.9 -103

of which incl. in labour costs €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

of which incl. in interest expenses €th 0.00 -85.0 -98.9 -103

Pension matters

Summary Of Pension Risks

Geographic Breakdown Of Pension Liabilities

Balance Sheet Implications

P&L Implications



Pension Risks


12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance beginning of period €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Current service cost €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest expense €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Employees' contributions €th

Impact of change in actuarial assumptions €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

of which impact of change in discount rate €th 0.00

of which impact of change in salary increase €th 0.00

Changes to scope of consolidation €th

Currency translation effects €th

Pension payments €th

Other €th

Year end obligation €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Value at beginning €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Company expected return on plan assets €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Actuarial gain /(loss) €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Employer's contribution €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Employees' contributions €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



Pension payments €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Other €th

Value end of period €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Actual and normalised future return on plan assets €th 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

12/11A 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance beginning of period €th 1,754 2,125 2,473 2,572

Current service cost €th 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest expense €th 85.0 98.9 103

Employees' contributions €th

Impact of change in actuarial assumptions €th 263 0.00 0.00

of which Impact of change in discount rate €th -195

of which Impact of change in salary increase €th 458



Pension payments €th

Other €th 371

Year end obligation €th 2,125 2,473 2,572 2,674

Funded Obligations

Plan Assets

Unfunded Obligations



Pension Risks


Name Function Birth date Date in Date out Compensation, in k€ (year) Cash Equity linked

Frédéric COIRIER M CEO 126 (2011)

Jean-Francois BÉNOT M CFO 130 (2011)

Philippe BULLIER M Senior Executive 136 (2011)

André PRUNIER M Senior Executive 143 (2010)

Stéphane THOMAS M Senior Executive 131 (2011)

Name Indep. Function Completion of current mandate

Birth date Date in Date out

Fees / indemnity, in k€ (year)

Value of holding, in k€ (year)

Yves COIRIER M President/Chairman of th... 38.9 (2010)

Jean MENUT M Member 38.9 (2010)

Michel CAMP M Member 10.1 (2010)

Louis DEPARIS M Member 10.1 (2010)

Hedwige DE PENFENTENYO F Member 2012

Yes / No Weighting One share, one vote 20 %

Chairman vs. Executive split 5 %

Chairman not ex executive 5 %

Independent directors equals or above 50% of total directors 20 % Full disclosure on mgt pay (performance related bonuses, pensions and non financial benefits)

10 %

Disclosure of performance anchor for bonus trigger 15 %

Compensation committee reporting to board of directors 5 %

Straightforward, clean by-laws 20 %

Governance score 75 100%

Ticking list of key governance issues Existing committees

Audit / Governance Committee

Compensation committee

Financial Statements Committee

Litigation Committee

Nomination Committee

Safety committee

SRI / Environment

Management

Board of directors



Governance & Management


Accidents at work 25 % Of H.R. Score

Human resources development 35 % Of H.R. Score

Pay 20 % Of H.R. Score

Job satisfaction 10 % Of H.R. Score

Internal communication 10 % Of H.R. Score

Yes / No Rating Accidents at work 25 % 25/100

Set targets for work safety on all group sites? 40 % 10/100

Are accidents at work declining? 60 % 15/100

Human resources development 35 % 35/100

Are competences required to meet medium term targets identified? 10 % 4/100

Is there a medium term (2 to 5 years) recruitment plan? 10 % 4/100

Is there a training strategy tuned to the company objectives? 10 % 4/100

Are employees trained for tomorrow's objectives? 10 % 4/100

Can all employees have access to training? 10 % 4/100

Has the corporate avoided large restructuring lay-offs over the last year to date? 10 % 4/100

Have key competences stayed? 10 % 4/100

Are managers given managerial objectives? 10 % 4/100

If yes, are managerial results a deciding factor when assessing compensation level? 10 % 4/100

Is mobility encouraged between operating units of the group? 10 % 4/100

Pay 20 % 20/100

Is there a compensation committee? 30 % 6/100

Is employees' performance combining group performance AND individual performance? 70 % 14/100

Job satisfaction 10 % 0/100

Is there a measure of job satisfaction? 33 % 0/100

Can anyone participate ? 34 % 0/100

Are there action plans to prop up employees' morale? 33 % 0/100

Internal communication 10 % 10/100

Are strategy and objectives made available to every employee? 100 % 10/100

Human Ressources score: 90/100

Human Resources

HR Breakdown

HR Score

H.R. Score Building Prod. & Materials Poujoulat



Governance & Management


http://www.alphavalue.com/Secure/Sector.aspx?sectorCurrentId=b44dd138-983e-dd11-b21f-001d920fd6a3

: Strong momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall positive moving average trend confirmed by volumes

: Relatively good momentum corresponding to a positively-oriented moving average, but offset by an overbought pattern or lack of confirmation

from volumes

: Relatively unfavorable momentum with a neutral or negative moving average trend, but offset by an oversold pattern or lack of confirmation from

volumes

: Strongly negative momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall negative moving average trend confirmed by volumes

Momentum analysis consists in evaluating the stock market trend of a given financial instrument, based on the analysis of its trading flows. The main indicators used in our momentum tool are simple moving averages over three time frames: short term (20 trading days), medium term (50 days) and long term (150 days). The positioning of these moving averages relative to each other gives us the direction of the flows over these time frames. For example, if the short and medium-term moving averages are above the long-term moving average, this suggests an uptrend which will need to be confirmed. Attention is also paid to the latest stock price relative to the three moving averages (advance indicator) as well as to the trend in these three moving averages - downtrend, neutral, uptrend - which is more of a lagging indicator. The trend indications derived from the flows through moving averages and stock prices must be confirmed against trading volumes in order to confirm the signal. This is provided by a calculation based on the average increase in volumes over ten weeks together with a buy/sell volume ratio.

Momentum



Graphics


Moving Average MACD & Volume



Graphics


Sector Building Prod. & Materials



Graphics


Fundamental Opinion It is implicit that recommendations are made in good faith but should not be regarded as the sole source of advice.

Recommendations are geared to a “value” approach.

Valuations are computed from the point of view of a secondary market minority holder looking at a medium term (say 6 months) performance.

Valuation tools are built around the concepts of transparency, all underlying figures are accessible, and consistency, same methodology whichever the stock, allowing for differences in nature between financial and non financial stocks. A stock with a target price below its current price should not and will not be regarded as an Add or a Buy.

Recommendations are based on target prices with no allowance for dividend returns. The thresholds for the four recommendation levels may change from time to time depending on market conditions. Thresholds are defined as follows, ASSUMING long risk free rates remain in the 2-5% region.

There is deliberately no “neutral” recommendation. The principle is that there is no point investing in equities if the return is not at least the risk free rate (and the dividend yield which again is not allowed for).

Although recommendations are automated (a function of the target price whenever a new equity research report is released), the management of AlphaValue intends to maintain global consistency within its universe coverage and may, from time to time, decide to change global parameters which may affect the level of recommendation definitions and /or the distribution of recommendations within the four levels above. For instance, lowering the risk premium in a gloomy context may increase the proportion of positive recommendations.

Valuation Valuation processes have been organized around transparency and consistency as primary objectives. Stocks belong to different categories that recognise their main operating features : Banks, Insurers and Non Financials. Within those three universes, the valuation techniques are the same and in relation to the financial data available. The weighting given to individual valuation techniques is managed centrally and may be changed from time to time. As a rule, all stocks of a similar profile are valued using equivalent weighting of the various valuation techniques. This is for obvious consistency reasons. Within the very large universe of Non Financials, there are in effect 4 sub-categories of weightings to cater for subsets: 1) 'Mainstream' stocks; 2) 'Holding companies' where the stress is on NAV measures; 3) 'Growth' companies where the stress is on peer based valuations; 4) 'Loss making sectors' where peers review is essentially pointing nowhere. The bulk of the valuation is then built on DCF and NAV, in effect pushing back the time horizon.

RecommendationLow Volatility

(10-30)Normal Volatility

(15-35)High Volatility

(above 35)

Buy More than 15 % upside More than 20 % upside More than 30 % upside

Add From 5 % to 15 % From 5 % to 20 % From 10 % to 30 %

Reduce From -10 % to 5 % From -10 % to 5 % From -10 % to 10 %

Sell Below -10 % Below -10 % Below -10 %

Valuation Issue Normal industrials

Growth industrials

Holding company

Loss runners

Bank Insurers

DCF 35% 35% 10% 40% 0% 0%

NAV 20% 20% 55% 40% 25% 15%

PE 10% 10% 10% 5% 10% 20%

EV/EBITDA 20% 20% 0% 5% 0% 0%

Yield 10% 10% 20% 5% 15% 15%

P/Book 5% 5% 5% 5% 15% 10%

Banks' instrinsic method 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0%

Embedded Value 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40%

Mkt Cap/Gross Operating Profit 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0%

Typical sectors

Bio Techs



Methodology


Important Warning Above comments are solely aimed at institutional and other professional investors. They are designed to complement services made available by subscription only to AlphaValue via www.alphavalue.com . Above comments may only make sense in connection with an access to AlphaValue on line equity research



Methodology


http://www.alphavalue.com/Secure/Company/LongPdf/Controls/www.alphavalue.com

Documents

Financial analysis