FINANCIAL ANALYST TEAM R.K ASSOCIATES VALUERS & … · COVID-19: ECONOMIC IMPACT AND INDIA’S RECOVERY COVID IMPACT ANALYSIS Page 6 of 59 2020 April’ INDIA’S CHORONOLOGY OF EVENTS

FINANCIAL ANALYST TEAM

R.K ASSOCIATES VALUERS & TECHNO ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS (P) LTD.

COVID-19: ECONOMIC IMPACT

AND INDIA’S RECOVERY

COVID IMPACT ANALYSIS Page 1 of 59

PART A - ECONOMY OF INDIA ................................................................. 4

HOTSPOTS OF CORONAVIRUS IN INDIA ................................................................... 4

CORONAVIRUS GROWTH RATE IN INDIA IN LAST 4 MONTHS ................................. 5

INDIA’S CHORONOLOGY OF EVENTS ........................................................................ 6

RKA FY 2021 GDP PROJECTIONS ............................................................................... 7

GDP GROWTH (%) FORECAST OF INDIA BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES .....................11

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE FOR F.Y. 2019-20* ($ BN) .................................................12

IMPACT ON INDIA FROM DIFFERENT WORLD ECONOMIES ...................................13

CHINA .............................................................................................................................. 14

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ................................................................................. 16

UNITED KINGDOM ....................................................................................................... 18

JAPAN.............................................................................................................................. 20

GERMANY ...................................................................................................................... 22

SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN ECONOMY POST COVID-19 .......................................23

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON DIFFERENT SECTORS ....................................................24

SECTOR WISE MICRO ANALYSIS ..............................................................................25

INVESTMENT STRATEGY DURING COVID-19 PERIOD .............................................28

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT ASSETS CLASSES IN INDIA ...................29

PART B – ECONOMY OF USA ................................................................ 32

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................32

GDP GROWTH YOY .....................................................................................................32

SECTORAL GROWTH RATE FOR US ECONOMY ......................................................33

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON U.S. ECONOMY ................................................................33

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & USA 2019 ..........................................35

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2




GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATE BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES.......................................36

PART C – ECONOMY OF CHINA ............................................................ 37

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................37

QUARTER WISE CONTRIBUTION TO CHINESE ECONOMY .....................................38

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & CHINA 2019 .......................................38

IMPACTED INDUSTRIES IN INDIA ..............................................................................39

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES FOR CHINA BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES ................40

PART D – ECONOMY OF UNITED KINGDOM ........................................ 41

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................41

GDP CALCULATED BY USING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) CHAIN VALUE ........41

GDP LATEST QUARTER ON QUARTER (Q-o-Q) GROWTH .......................................41

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM .........................................41

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & UK 2019 .............................................42

FDI EQUITY FLOW FROM UK TO INDIA .....................................................................42

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATE OF UK BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES ...........................43

PART E – ECONOMY OF JAPAN ............................................................ 44

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................44

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROWTH (%) RATE .........................................44

GDP LATEST QUARTER ON QUARTER (Q-o-Q) GROWTH .......................................45

FDI EQUITY FLOW FROM JAPAN TO INDIA ...............................................................45

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE JAPAN .............................................................45

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & JAPAN 2019 ......................................45

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES OF JAPAN BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES ..................46

PART F – ECONOMY OF GERMANY ...................................................... 47

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................47

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GROWTH RATE .............................................47

EQUITY FLOW FROM GERMANY TO INDIA (PROVISIONAL) ($ MILLION) ................47

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE GERMANY (IN CRORES) ...............................48

3

4

5

6




EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & GERMANY 2019 ................................48

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES OF GERMANY BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES ...........49

BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………. ............................................................. 50

7




HOTSPOTS OF CORONAVIRUS IN INDIA

PART A - ECONOMY OF INDIA




Source: Times of India Dated: 21st

July, 2020 by Anurag Thakur

CORONAVIRUS GROWTH RATE IN INDIA IN LAST 4 MONTHS




INDIA’S CHORONOLOGY OF EVENTS

January’

2020

April’

2020

March’

2020 WHO declared this new pneumonia virus as a Pandemic. India

imposed air travel restrictions from March 13th. On March 15th, PM

Modi proposed SAARC fund. On March 22nd, Janta curfew was

observed. Finally, on March 24th complete lockdown was

announced.

May’ 2020

Nationwide Unlock 1.0 has begun. As per guidelines

issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), malls,

hotels, restaurants and places of worship can open from

June 8 with safety protocols in Unlock 1.0. In Unlock 2.0,

Educational institutes, air travel, Metro, Cinema halls, any

social/ political/ sports events are not permitted till 31st

July. Many pharma companies are in the mid-final stage

of vaccine preparation. Govt. continues to support to BPL

by providing free ration till the end of November. Daily

new COVID cases continue to increase; reaches 1.53

million with recovery rate reaches close to 65% as on

31st July. From 1

st of August Unlock 3 has been

announced where night curfew has been removed and

Gyms and Yoga institutes are allowed to operate.

Second and third patient were also reported in Kerala. Virus started spreading in

India. February’

2020

On April 14th, PM Modi extended lockdown till May 3rd 2020.

But conditional relaxation in lockdown was given from April

20th. World Bank announced $160 Bn emergency fund to

fight against corona.

Lockdown 3.0 and 4.0 subsequently was imposed till 31st

May, 2020 with increased relaxations to restart the

economy. Govt. announced Rs. 20 Lacs crores stimulus

package. World bank has also sanctioned $1Bn aid/ loan

to India to fight this pandemic.

June’ 2020

onwards

In January, first Corona patient was found in Kerala. This marked an entry of COVID-19 in India.

Later WHO declared this new virus as “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/visiting-malls-restaurants-places-of-worship-from-june-8-here-is-the-list-of-dos-and-donts-6443016/

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/visiting-malls-restaurants-places-of-worship-from-june-8-here-is-the-list-of-dos-and-donts-6443016/




4.43%

-32.31%

-15.59%

-3.73%

3.36%

-35.00%

-30.00%

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

Quarters of F.Y 2021

Qrt. wise GDP Growth in Comparison to Q4 FY20

Q4 FY20

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21

Q4 FY21

RKA FY 2021 GDP PROJECTIONS

*RKA estimates for Base case

*RKA estimates based on “Factor Cost Method” on real GDP basis

-3.90%

-8.13%

-12.96% -14.00%

-12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

Scenarios

GDP Growth / (Contraction) Rate for F.Y. 2021

Optimistic Case Base Case Pessimistic Case




As per our analysis following major factors stand in support of the RKA FY 2021 GDP

Projections based on “Factor Cost Method” on real GDP basis:

After previous 18 months of slow down, India has shown signs of recovery in Feb month, 2020

with IIP figures from 127.6 to 133.5 Y-o-Y, PMI increasing by 4.5% to 54.5 from 54.3 Y-o-

Y respectively and core sector output grew at 5.5%, i.e. 11 month high level.

In March’ 2020, data started contracting as IIP, PMI & core sectors growth again slipped

from 133.5 to 120.1 month-on-month basis, 54.5 to 51.8 month-on-month basis and 6.47% of

contraction from previous month respectively. The major reason was spread of Coronavirus in

India.

Thereafter, complete lockdown for 40 days (24th March’ 2020 to 3

rd May’ 2020) brought the GDP

to almost to its’ bottommost level and GDP growth rate contracted on account of shut down of

all Industrial and commercial activities completely except essential commodities, pharmaceutical

drugs etc. As per Bloomberg, 75% of the total economic activities remain closed during those 40

days of 1st two phases of lockdown period except those as mentioned previously. The

decline in

economic activities is also evident by downfall in export and import by 60% (Appx.) in the month

of April’ 2020.

Small manufacturers may avoid immediately starting production in the initial stage of relaxation

from lockdown due to low demand in the industry due to which they might not be able to achieve

the breakeven point.

After lock down 2.0 post 3rd

May, some relaxations in restrictions in the non-hotspot/ non

containment zones restarted the economic cycle to gradually pickup intermittently.

Due to opening of restrictions post lockdown 3.0, COVID-19 cases may spike again and Central

& State Govt. may take some intermittent region based emergency measures to contain the

spread.

Even in case the Govt. does not go in for imposing restrictions, the overall sentiments will

remain weak and economic activities will remain intermittently disruptive till the graph of daily

new cases starts coming down conclusively.

As per data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GOI dt. 31st July, 2020,

manufacturing sector output during the 1st Quarter of F.Y. 2021 contracted by 24.6% in

comparison to the output of same period in the previous financial year. As per our analysis, the




contraction in manufacturing sector will start falling with the lifting in lockdown relaxations by

Govt. in phased manner.1

In the month of May, IIP data shrinkage was 35% - 45% but it was better than that of contraction

of 55.5% in April month. Among eight core sectors, Fertilizer production grew 7.5% in May after

two consecutive months of contraction suggesting some strength in rural economy. Cement

sector witnessed lower contraction of 22.2% in May month against 85.3% in April month. Steel

sector contraction in May month was 48.4% vs 78.7% in April. Electricity sector figures were

15.6% vs 23% for the same period etc. This is heartening that India’s manufacturing purchasing

managers’ index (PMI) rose from 30.8 in May to 47.2 in June, showed IHS Market’s latest

survey.

With some relaxations in the unlock down 1 and substantial relief in unlock down 2 are expected

to further help in recovery in the core sectors as well as in the whole economy as well.

Therefore, from the beginning of 2nd

Quarter onwards, Industrial production, economic activities

and consumer consumption will gradually start scaling up freely in the major parts of the country

except in the remaining few hotspots areas. It will help the economy to start coming back on

track starting from the beginning of 2nd

quarter and GDP growth rate will start rising

intermittently.

Currently there is a huge distrust on China among major large economies of the world. This may

lead to shifting of operations of some of the MNCs from China to India.

Brewing tensions between China and US over the virus outbreak and counter allegations may

show some turbulence in the Global markets in between second to third quarter. Moreover, the

outcome of the US Presidential election to be held in November’ 20 might be a decisive one

about the future of trade relations between them.

Third quarter of the financial year is considered as festival season in India, hence production

and growth of non-essential/ luxury items will also increase due to natural growth in the

domestic consumption.

Hospitality, tourism & aviation Industry are the worst affected and their revival is expected from

next financial year onward only.

Likely, strategic shift of investments from China to India may start reflecting a positive impact on

Indian stock market and economy only from the fourth quarter onwards this year. This will

provide a boost to the Indian economy and the GDP curve will take an upward trajectory.




In spite of growing opportunities for India with movement of investments & businesses out of

China to India and reforms & economic package announced by the Government but it is

expected that spurt in domestic demand may still takes almost two or three quarters to start

reflecting the results on ground due to current weak market sentiments, low liquidity, low

purchasing power, job losses and uncertain economic conditions ahead.

It is expected that economy will take at least 2-3 quarters to come back to normal (pre-COVID

numbers) and from there it will start rebounding on growth path.

It is anticipated that by the end of second quarter, a major breakthrough in terms of Covid-19

vaccines/treatment may be achieved and its’ mass production may start from the third quarter

which will boost global market & economic sentiments.

Indo-China border clash as on June, 15th during the pandemic will have profound impact on the

bilateral trade relationships. Furthermore, China has been accused of spreading corona virus

across the globe and there has been growing anti-Chinese sentiments in India as well across

the world.

Major Caveats: in order to capitalize on the growing opportunity, India has to continue with

its reforms path especially on administrative reforms to reduce red tapism and bureaucracy

and initiate land as well labour reforms so as to truly project its’ credentials as a pro-business

country. Furthermore, India has to revamp its human productivity, capability & capacity in

order to develop size and scale of manufacturing facilities and become a dominant global

player.

Major Issues Industry will face in early recovery of economy will be labor migration, weak

demand, supply chain disruption, liquidity crunch, low purchasing power, input imported raw

material, global slowdown.

Major Potential Advantages: High domestic consumption, radical reforms by the

Government, migration of investment from China to India might help India to attain its pre-

COVID GDP numbers and then gaining trajectory path.




As per IMF:

PLGE: (4.5)%

PCGE: 1.9%

World Bank:

PLGE:(3.2)%

PCGE: 1.5%-2.8%

As per ADB:

PLGE: (4)%

PCGE: <2%

Moody's*:

PLGE: (3.1)%

PECE: 2%

Crisil ratings:

PLGE: (5)%

PCGE: 1.8%

RBI :

PLGE: (1.5)%

PCGE: -ve$

India Ratings:

PLGE: (5.3)%

PCGE:(2.1)%

Goldman Sachs:

PLGE: (5)%

PCGE: 0.4%

S&P*:

PLGE: (5)%

PCGE: 1.8%

Fitch ratings:

PLGE: (5)%

PCGE: 0.8%

PLGE = Post-Corona Latest Growth Estimate

PCGE = Pre-Corona Growth Estimate, RBI – Reserve Bank of India

N/P = Not Provided, * = Growth for calendar Year, ADB – Asian Development Bank

OCED = Organization for Economic Corporation and Development,

IMF – International Monetary Fund, -ve$ - RBI has said only negative growth earlier in April month

GDP GROWTH (%) FORECAST OF INDIA BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES2




45.85

16.50

(7.47) (4.77)

1.91

-50.00

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

Germany Japan China

America United kingdom

* Provisional

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE FOR F.Y. 2019-20* ($ BN)3




INDIA

UNITED STATES

OF AMERICA

UNITED KINGDOM

GERMANY JAPAN

CHINA

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

CHINA

UNITED KINGDOM

JAPAN

GERMANY

IMPACT ON INDIA FROM DIFFERENT WORLD ECONOMIES




India imports around 70% of its APIs in terms of consumption value from China.4

For many critical antibiotics and antipyretics, dependency on imports from China is close to

100%.4

India imports $10 billion APIs from China. These APIs are crucial for more than $30 billion

medicine i.e. exports and consumption in India.5

However now India is actively working to develop indigenous APIs which will reduce our

dependence on China and an opportunity for India pharma companies in this segment.

India imports 67% of electronic components from China.6

India also imports 45% completely built units of consumer durables from China.6

Around 75-80% of value of components used in smartphones, TVs are sourced from China.

Prices were hiked 2-3% by the Chinese suppliers in the month of April, so it may inflate

finished goods prices in India.6

Under Atma Nirbhar Bharat program India is actively working to develop capacity in electronic

and electrical items specifically on those products which we majorly import. This will play an

opportunity for India in this segment.

India imports nearly 40% of its organic chemicals from China. So Indian organic industry is

likely to impacted.7

Organic chemicals and Iron steel contribute 26% of India's imports from China. So this sector

will be moderately impacted by shut down in China and trade tensions between the two

countries.7

Organic Chemicals

Electronics & Electricals equipment’s

Pharmaceuticals

Textile and Apparel

CHINA




As per KPMG, Textile and Apparel industry sector production will decline by 10% - 12% in the

Q1 F.Y. 2021 amid shutdown.

As per KPMG, shutdown across China has increased prices of man-made fibers (MMF) by 25-

30%. So higher raw material prices will result in higher prices of goods domestically.

India Imports $460 million of synthetic yarn and $360 million synthetic fibers as well as $140

million items like zappers, hangers, needles etc.8

China accounts for 27% of India's automotive parts imports worth $4.8 billion.9

Shutdown in China and anti-China movement if persists longer, then it is expected to result in

a contraction of 8% - 10% in the Indian auto industry.9

As per Industry body, many automakers in India import about 10% of their raw material from

neighboring nations.9

India exports 36% of its diamonds to china. Especially polished diamonds.10

The spread of the coronavirus is expected to shaving off about $2 billion from gems and

jewellery in exports this fiscal year.10

So overall, gems and jewellery exports are expected to fall by 5% from the previous fiscal 2.77

lakhs crore to 2.16 lakhs crore this year.10

Gems & Jewellery

Automotive components

CONCLUSION: Effect of COVID-19 on China was restricted only upto March’ 2020 and

after that China gradually started recovering from the situation. Hence, after evaluating all

the factors available from Industry & Market research and analysis of the overall situation,

it can be concluded that imports of raw material and intermediate products for

pharmaceuticals, electronic and components, telecom, chemicals, automotive parts etc.

from China might get moderately effected due to low demand in India in 1st half of the year

but export of Indian diamond to China might get severely affected due to limited production

and supply from India during this period. In long run it is expected that India will emerge as

the net gainer in the economic front due to Covid impact and other border tensions with

China.




India meets over 50% of global demand for various vaccines, 40% of generic demand in the U.S

as well.11

India accounts for around 30% by volume and about 10% by value in the $70- $80 billion of U.S.

generics market.11

India has the highest number of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved sites.

Outside the U.S. 8 out of 20 top generic companies are from India.

The USA is the top destination of India’s pharma products worth $5.82 Bn.11

Indian IT sector is highly dependent on US economy for its revenue.

In the first three quarters, India exported $65.6 billion worth of goods and services to America

out of which 35%-40% was alone the export of services.12

For instance, about 65% of revenue of Satyam and Mindtree come from the US. While,

Infosys’s 63%, Wipro’s 60%, KPIT’s 60%, TCS’ 56% and HCL Tech’s 56%, revenues are

generated from US.12

Total export of textile products from India to the USA was $8.57 Bn (Estimated) in 2019.

Textile exporters in India are optimistic that the additional tariff of 25% imposed by US on China,

will bring an opportunity for Indian textile sector to increase their exports.13

The pandemic has affected the majority of India’s export market especially the US and the EU

together constitute for around 60% of the total apparel exports from India in value terms.13

India’s annual gems and jewellery export to US stands at $10 billion.14

Pharmaceuticals

Textiles & Apparel

Gems & Jewellery

Information & Technology (IT)

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA




Recently US has levied a 10% import duty on import of gems and jewellery from China, taking

total tariff to 20.5%.14

This is an opportunity for India with hopes to tap a $1 billion export opportunity in this space but

rising gold prices may pose a threat to high jewellery exports from India to the US.14

India began importing crude oil from the USA in 2017 so as to diversify its oil basket from OPEC

nations. It bought 1.9 Mn tonne of crude oil in 2017-18 and another 6.2 Mn tonne in 2018-19.

Now the US oil supplies to India has jumped ten-fold to 2,50,000 barrels per day.15

Crude and it’s Derivatives

CONCLUSION: It is expected that the most severe effect of COVID-19 in USA might result

in increase in dependence of USA on world export for its’ industrial and household demand.

Besides, rising trade tension between China and America, imports of USA might get shifted

from China to other countries. This will probably result in increase in export of

pharmaceuticals, textile, jewellery etc. items from India to the USA but not to a very large

extent and US supplies of crude oil to India might get severely affected. Post COVID-19

possible shifting of major USA based MNC from China to India might result in increase in

employment and FDI investment in India. However weakening of USA economy due to

Covid impact may impact India also especially its ITeS sector since India is net exporter.




UK is the second largest and important exports destination of India’s pharmaceuticals products

worth $630.17 million in 2019, registering growth of 13.2% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis.16

The UK is now facing a national shortage of paracetamol, commonly used to fight COVID-19,

due to India curbing exports of the drug during the global pandemic.

This is an opportunity for Indian pharma companies. If the government lifts ban on sale of 26

pharmaceutical ingredients and the medicines.17

India's exports of apparel & clothing accessories to the UK worth $1.996 Bn in 2019.18

If India can do Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the UK then it can be a big boost to Indian

textiles and apparel sector with a potential of $3 billion exports additional and create 5-6 lakhs

jobs.18

India's export of textile and garments are likely to decline by 40% in coming months due to halt

in shipment to coronavirus affected (COVID-19) countries especially the US, Italy, Spain and the

UK.19

The market research and analytics firm further predicts that apparel and footwear sales will drop

by 11.1 billion pounds ($13.5 billion) in 2020 compared with 2019. Export of India will also suffer

due to this.19

India's gems and jewellery exports had declined by 20.26% in value to Rs 20,763.28 crores in

February this year as compared to Rs 26,039.32 crore in February 2019.20

Around 41% annual decline in cut and polished diamond exports led to a cumulative exports fall

of 19% Y-o-Y basis for the overall gems and jewellery industry in February 2020.21

Textiles & Apparels

Pharmaceuticals

Gems & Jewellery

UNITED KINGDOM




India imported fuel and oil, products of distillation from UK worth $449.19 Mn in year 2019.

Amid the pandemic outbreak, there would be no supplies of crude and its derivatives from UK

but it may not have an adverse impact since there is no meaningful demand for it during the

lockdown period.

CONCLUSION: Post COVID-19 export of pharmaceutical drugs might get moderately

effected but there might be a huge downfall in export of apparel items and polished diamond

to UK due to weak demand, halt in port operations etc. India’s import of crude oil and other

related items may also have moderate to high affect during the 1st half of F.Y. 2021. Overall,

India may be a net looser due to Covid impact on UK.

Crude and its Derivatives




India has exported Rs 3,773.18 crore of mineral oils to Japan in 2019 which constitutes around

11% of India's total exports to that country.

With the decline in oil prices, Indian oil companies exporting petroleum and derivatives products

will suffer.

In 2019, India’s exports of Organic chemicals were $204 million (Provisional), up by 29% from

the previous year.22

Inorganic chemicals exports from India to Japan was $29 million (Provisional) that was down by

16% from the previous year.22

Agro chemicals exports was $62 million (Provisional), degrowth of 51% Year-on-Year basis in

2019.

India exports of Gems and jewellery to Japan was Rs.3043.12 crore in 2019 that constitutes

around 9% of the India exports to Japan.22

As per Industry professionals, there is an export potential of $3 billion for India in Japan in the

areas of pharmaceuticals, gems & jewellery, marine products etc.22

India's import of nuclear reactors part, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances was worth

$3.41 Bn in 2019.

During lockdown due to closure of businesses, lack of supplies and no port operation, import of

above goods remain halted.

Crude and Its Derivatives

JAPAN

Gems and Jewellery

Chemicals

Nuclear reactors & Mechanical appliances




CONCLUSION: During the COVID-19 period in India export of mineral oil, organic chemicals,

Gems & Jewellery etc. to Japan will decline significantly which might result in trade deficit and

lowering the foreign currency reserves in India. Besides lower import of boilers and

mechanical appliances may have a significant effect on industrial production during the 1st half

of the year. COVID-19 is hurting flow of investment from Japan to India worth $3 Bn,

commitment given by the Japanese companies to India.




India has exported $154.26 million agricultural goods to the Germany in 2019.23

With the spread of COVID-19, agricultural supplies are the worst hit as they are perishable and

tend to loss value & quality soon.

India's exports of pharmaceuticals were $445.78 million in 2019, up by 14.53% from the

previous year.24

Germany is the 7th largest pharmaceuticals destination for India's pharma products.

24

In April month, India has approved list of 13 countries to get HCQ and pharma APIs including

Germany that will get 50 lakhs tablets of HCQ as well as 1.5 MT of APIs from India.25

India's exports of organic chemicals to Germany was $246 million in 2019, up by 18% Y-o-Y

basis.26

India exports of dyes to Germany was $102 million in 2019, down by 1% Y-o-Y basis.26

India's exports of Inorganic Chemicals worth $21 million in 2019 that was up by 17% on Y-o-Y

basis.26

India imports of mechanical appliances and boilers, nuclear reactors parts worth $4.57 Bn from

the Germany.

These goods supplies will remain constrained due to the lockdown and disruption in logistics as

well as ports services.

Agriculture goods

Pharmaceuticals

CONCLUSION: Europe is under firm grip of COVID-19, constrained trade with EU will adversely

impact chemicals, pharmaceuticals, clothing and apparel sector of India. Export of agricultural goods

will get affected significantly due to halted logistics and port operations and concerned industry shut

down during lock down period.

Chemicals

Mechanicals Equipment and Boilers

GERMANY




India has world 3rd

largest consumer base after USA and China.

World 3rd

largest medicines producing country by volume. Produces 20% Generic medicines and also supplies 50% of global demand for vaccines.

Strong IT sector and Government support for Digital India Program.

Early strong measures for COVID19 containment which has largely contained the spread of panic given the size of population.

Strong government fiscal stimulus package and other continuous Ease-of-doing-business & pro-business reforms.

Good economic recovery in Tier-2 cities and rural areas.

India’s strong geo political relationship with major western economies to attract foreign investment.

Excessive dependence on China for majority of products like Pharmaceuticals APIs (~70%), Automotive parts, Organic Chemicals, Plastics, textile export, electrical components & items (~80%), Solar cells and panels (~80%), etc.

Indian IT sector over dependence on financial and Insurance institutions of the USA and Europe.

High cost of debt & capital as compared to other countries

Industrial imbalanced growth and scarcity of large clusters.

Poor manufacturing & infrastructure base.

Shortage of Skilled, quality and dedicated human resource.

SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN ECONOMY POST COVID-19

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

Prolong existence of Corona virus and its slow recovery in major economic centers/ metro cities.

Labor Shortage due to its slow return after migration will impact manufacturing and construction sector.

Slow recovery & pickup of demand and consumption due to liquidity crunch, low purchasing power, weak market sentiments.

Any further border escalation between China-India.

Supply chain disruption due to restrictions on China and sentimental boycott of China’s products already imported.

Global slowdown and input imported raw material supply chain disruption may pose threat for the domestic Industry.

Effect on IT sector due to huge hit of pandemic to the economies of USA and the EU countries.

Diversion of Japanese companies from China to Indonesia, Vietnam and other South Asian countries.

Keeping the reforms measures too stringent through web of complex & complicated policies, compliances & rules to remain non-responsive & ineffective on ground.

Red Tapism and low coordination among state & central governments for policy & reforms implementation on ground.

Delayed & time taking legal system and Poor contract enforcement.

Surge in bad loans due to impact on businesses may weaken the Banking & Finance sector.

Prolong & deep impact on sectors such as Tourism, Hospitality, Aviation, Luxury retail & Entertainment.

THREATS OPPORTUNITIES

Growing distrust against China might result in movement of Japanese and Global MNCs from China to India.

Due to ongoing distrust on China, focus on Make-in-India programs and other recent reforms announced by the Govt. may get more traction and it can widen exports opportunities for India.

Capacity building opportunities for domestic Industries in sectors such as pharma, electrical, electronics & solar panel components.

Crude oils prices are likely to remain low. This will help India’s keeping its import bill low and will help in countering the increasing India’s fiscal deficit which will be increasing due to Covid-19 rescue measures and fiscal stimulus package announced by the Govt. recently. This will also decrease the production cost and will improve margins for sectors like oil importing companies, paints, chemicals etc.

Renewed opportunities developed in sectors such as defense, agriculture, mining & energy after ease-of-doing-business & structural reforms announced by the Govt. in its stimulus package.




PACKAGING INDUSTRY

HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY

LEAST OR NO EFFECT MODERATELY EFFECTED MOST EFFECTED

TELECOMMUNICATION

INDUSTRY POWER SECTOR IT COMPANIES

E-COMMERCE INDUSTRY AVIATION & TOURISM INSURANCE SECTOR

BANKING & FINANCE

ASECTOR

FMCG COMPANIES

FINTECH INDUSTRY

EDUCATION SECTOR

CONSTRUCTION &

INFRASTRUCTURE

SECTOR

SHIPPING INDUSTRY FOOD PROCESSING

INDUSTRY

PHARMACEUTICALS

INDUSTRY

METAL & MINING

INDUSTRY

APPAREL & TEXTILE

INDUSTRY

TRANSPORT INDUSTRY

AUTOMOBILE &

COMPONENTS

INDUSTRY

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON DIFFERENT

SECTORS OF INDIAN ECONOMY




SECTOR WISE MICRO ANALYSIS1

MACRO DATA

E-way bills till July 26, at 38.8 million, are marginally higher than those till June 26 (34.1 million). Rail freight as on July 27 surpassed the level on July 27, 2019 – 3.13 MT compared with 3.12 MT and while the trade surplus in June is an indicator of low economic activity. July exports are almost 87.5% of 2019 July, showing some revival. Outlook: Improving

JOBS

Companies hiring intent improved from 11% during the lockdown period (March 25-June 7) to 18% for the period till September; according to a Team Lease report. Industries most keen to hire are those doing good business because of the pandemic: healthcare and pharmaceuticals; education; agriculture and agrochemicals; FMCG; IT; and ecommerce. If this persists next month, jobs can recover well, say experts. Outlook: Improving

AUTOMOBILES July has been better than June, which was better than May. But the June to July improvement isn’t sharp. Year-on-year sales decline was 25% in June and 15-20% in July. Industry says local lockdowns are affecting sales volumes by 5-7%. Two-wheelers are still the best-sellers, and sales of commercial vehicles are still in the dumps. FY21 outlook: Double-digit sales decline compared with FY20. Outlook: Improving

RETAIL

July saw a marginal rise, 64% year-on-year de-growth compared with 67% in June. In the durables and electronics sub-sector, July saw 85% pre-Covid performance vis-à-vis 75% in June and in FMCG, June’s high growth has plateaued in July. Industry says stockpiling is over, and it’s rural demand that’s driving FMCG now. FY21 outlook depends on demand reviving in urban centers and malls opening up fully. Outlook: Improving




REAL ESTATE

Sales have plateaued in July after a pickup in June to 60% of year-ago levels. Industry says demand unlikely to improve till Dussehra/ Diwali and that too depends on a demand stimulus. Outlook: Very Weak

SMARTPHONES

The 10 million units sold in July were lower than June’s 11 million. Industry says August-September sales are likely to be flat. Festive reason is critical. But demand exhaustion and consumer caution on upgrades are concerns. Outlook: Weak

ECOMMERCE

July saw 90-100% levels of pre-Covid gross merchandise value (GMV), bettering June performance. But average order value is still down compared with pre-Covid. Etailers are betting on the festive season for higher fashion and electronics sales. But some analysts are not sure. However, GMV outlook for FY21 is good. Outlook: Positive

DIGITAL PAYMENTS

July saw 90-100% levels of pre-Covid gross merchandise value (GMV), bettering June performance. But average order value is still down compared with pre-Covid. Etailers are betting on the festive season for higher fashion and electronics sales. But some analysts are not sure. However, GMV outlook for FY21 is good. Outlook: Positive

TECHNOLOGY

July saw further improvement for India’s IT firms vis-à-vis June, as tech spends by global clients adjusting to new work rules kept rising and IT biggies bagged large deals. Hiring in India and abroad is up, and IT stocks are high-performers. Industry says FY21 outlook is good. Outlook: Positive

HOSPITALITY

July occupancy likely to be around June’s 20% level, industry says. Local lockdowns are an additional negative. Industry says it will take two-and-a-half years to reach 50-70% of pre-Covid levels. Debt is likely to be a big problem. Outlook: Very Weak




CAB-HAILING

July saw 10% of pre-Covid rides, a sharp drop from 20% pre-Covid rides in June. Industry says local lockdowns are hurting. Analysts say at these levels, the business will be tough to sustain over the next few months. Ride-hailers need to look at other business models such as rentals and corporate contracts. Plus, even if demand picks up, drivers who exited the business may not be able to come back quickly. Outlook: Very Weak

AVIATION

July saw airlines operating 750-800 flights per day, less than 30% of pre-Covid levels. And this month was slightly worse than June as local lockdowns affected flights. Government estimates domestic flight numbers may be around 1,500 flights per day till November-end. Industry says this will be difficult, If Covid continues to spread. Outlook: Very Weak

FUEL & ELECTRICITY

Demand for diesel in the first half of July was 18% lower than in June first half; and petrol demand was down 6%. The industry blames high prices and local lockdowns. Peak power demand in July, at 164 GW, was marginally higher than June’s 158 GW. Fuel and power companies say unless industry and mobility revive, FY21 will be considerably worse than FY20. Outlook: Weak

STEEL & CEMENT

For steel, capacity utilization of 80% in July was slightly less than in June. Rating agencies estimate steel demand contraction of 20-21% in FY21. In cement, 70% capacity utilization in July was better than in June. But demand overall is weak, says industry, since construction activity is not growing fast. Analysts expect cement demand to decline by 10-12% Y-o-Y in FY21. Outlook: Very Weak




GROWTH/ (DEGROWTH) IN DIFFERENT INVESTMENT MARKETS OF DIFFERENT

WORLD ECONOMIES: (As on: 29/7/2020)

Countries Stock Market Bonds Yields Gold

India (8.57)% (11.38)% 25.67%

China (5.12)% (6.43)% 25.67%

USA (2.97)% (68.10)% 25.67%

Japan (6.35)% NC* 25.67%

Germany (4.42)% NC* 25.67%

Britain (19.46)% (83.88)% 25.67%

*NC=Japan and Germany government 10-Year bonds not considered.

Period for Returns in Stock market, Gold returns and Bond yields is considered between January 16

th, 2020 to July 29

th, 2020.

INVESTMENT RETURNS (%) IN DIFFERENT ASSETS CLASS IN DIFFERENT TIME HORIZON IN WORLD AS ON 29/7/2020 (All No.s in %)

Countries Stock Market Returns Bonds Yields

Gold Returns

YTD

5 Years

10 Years

Yearly Latest

YTD 3

Years 5

Years

India (7.26) 34.75 108.65 5.84 36.72 56.16 78.30

China 12.0 (13.1) 24.4 2.94 36.72 56.16 78.30

USA 6.5 52.6 192.2 0.577 36.72 56.16 78.30

Japan 3.6 10.3 131.0 0.017 36.72 56.16 78.30

Germany 3.4 14.5 109.2 (0.516) 36.72 56.16 78.30

Britain (20.3) (7.6) 15.3 0.104 36.72 56.16 78.30

Bonds Yields of 10-Year Government bonds/Treasury notes is considered as on July 29th, 2020.

Stock market returns Gold returns

YTD = July 29th, 2019 to July 29

th, 2020. YTD = July 29

th, 2019 July 29

th, 2020

5 Years = July 29th, 2015 to July 29

th, 2020 3 Years = July 29

th, 2017 to July 29

th, 2020

10 Years = July 29th, 2010 to July 29

th, 2020 5 Years = July 29

th, 2015 to July 29

th,2020

INVESTMENT STRATEGY DURING COVID-19 PERIOD




INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT ASSETS CLASSES IN INDIA:

Stock Market:

It is not a right time to invest in stock market. Since markets are highly uncertain & volatile with

coronavirus further spreading and putting stress on the stock indices.

This time around, crash is not economically induced but rather a health crisis. So with a

discovery of a vaccine for within an anticipated period of next six-eight months. Estimated

recovery may start from Q4 FY21 till FY22.

Mutual Funds:

“Mutual funds sahi hai” - This most popular adage is shattered with following points,

Closure of six debt mutual funds schemes by Franklin Templeton on April 23rd

was a shock for

the whole mutual fund industry. These schemes having an AUM of 26,000 crore. As a result,

redemption pressure mounted on other debt funds with 25,000 Cr. was redeemed between

23rd

and 28th April 2020.

27

Consequently, a reduction in AUM of credit risk, medium duration, money market was witnessed

with 19%, 11%, 5% respectively between 23rd

to 28th April, 2020.

27

Post-Franklin fiasco, there is a trust deficit among investors with respect to liquidity of mutual

funds. So as to restore faith of people and tackle with liquidity crisis grappling the mutual fund

(MF) industry, RBI moves to provide liquidity support by announcing 50,000 Standing Liquidity

Facility – Mutual fund (SLF – MF) facility but it will not alone address this issue. Going forward

there is a risk of bad loans for banks if they lend to mutual funds under SLF-MF scheme.28

In the recent times, corporates have raised Rs 2 trillion through bond market in Q1 of FY21, so

as to accumulate funds in case their balance sheets deteriorate further. They are also focusing

on cost-cutting, delaying capex to create liquidity buffers for the later part of the year.29

Inflows into debt mutual funds rose to Rs. 63,665 crores in May from Rs. 43,431 crores in April.

But credit risk funds continued to witness outflows in May amounting to Rs 19,239 crore,

since Investors continue to rush to safe funds post the Franklin episode in April, allocating their

funds to relatively safe investments like banking & PSU, gilt and money market funds.30




Gold:

Gold has delivered returns 6% - 12% in a short two to three months. Analysts expect that even if

coronavirus continues to spread, prices of gold will remain firm. Since gold preserves wealth in

difficult times, so will remain lucrative.

As stocks and bonds as investment avenues are not showing any hope of recovery, so gold is

the new investment asset. If analysts at Bank of America Securities (BoA Sec) are to be

believed, then gold prices in the international market could rally to $3,000 per ounce (Oz) or Rs.

82,000/10 grams by end 2021 from present level of $1514 per ounce at current Indian exchange

rates in about one and a half years i.e. gaining above 90% in the international markets.31

A strong global demand for gold, along with a depreciating rupee, helped the yellow metal to

breach the Rs. 50,000 per 10 gm mark in Mumbai’s retail market on 1st July. This is the first time

the price of the precious metal, crossed the psychologically important level. In the last two

years, the returns were 57% and gold has outperformed all other asset classes.32

Real Estate:

Real estate is the one of the last investment option considering economic obligations attached

to it. Amid coronavirus it is least priority for consumer for any residential or commercial site

survey.

As per ANAROCK property Consultants, housing sales across seven major cities was down by

42% year on year basis to 45,200 units. Sequentially house sales declined by 21%.33

Amid all the upheaval, a silver lining with a news, ANAROCK Property Consultants has recently

announced selling of 240 homes and 62 office units cumulatively worth Rs252 Crore across

cities during the month of March and April with the help of digital marketing. Of the total number

of housing sales closed post lockdown, at least 49% worth over Rs 85 crore were sold in the

Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) alone.33

Currently real estate sector is sitting at an unsold 6.24 lakhs residential units and 15 lakhs

under-construction homes in top eight metros. But affordable housing is having a strong

demand of 46%, 51%, 80%, 61% in Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai respectively.

However, demand for mid and luxury housing is not so encouraging in the top cities.34




Individually sales at Hyderabad recorded drop of 50%, at National Capital Region and Mumbai

recorded decline of 40%.34

CONCLUSION:

If an investor wants to accumulate wealth in a time period of 5-10 years’ while undertaking

risk, then either investment in equity markets (i.e. directly) or through SIP in mutual funds

(i.e. indirectly), are the best options.

If an investor wants to play safe then investment in Governments bonds, Quality Debt

Funds (QDF), FDs, Kisan Vikas Pitra (KVP), National Saving Certificates (NSC) are best

available options. Investment in gold ETFs, Gold bonds for better returns in 1-2 years’ time

period with wealth protection and decent returns.

It is not a right time to Invest in real estate assets for short & medium term investment.

Last but not the least hold cash and if possible, keep surplus cash in good liquid funds to

earn some extra returns.




INTRODUCTION:

The United States of America (U.S.A.) is the world's largest economy with a nominal GDP of

$21.44 trillion, constitutes one-fourth of the world economy.1

Service sector contributes 68% - 70% and manufacturing sector contribution is around 11% and

remaining contribution by the agriculture sector in the USA economy.

India is dependent on US for crude oil and its derivatives ($934.81 million), diamonds ($853.29

million), gold ($197.61 million) and civilian aircraft parts ($577.27 million) etc. Total goods

imported from USA to India worth $11.27 billion and exported from India to US $19.41billion.

Trade deficit of USA with India is $8.14 billion, till May month Year to Date (YTD) figures).2

Even amid corona outbreak, it is expected that the U.S. is set to grow to $25.8 trillion by 2024

with its GDP per capita at rising to $76,252 from the current $65,111.3

GDP GROWTH YOY4:

$ 17,404

$ 17,689 $ 18,108 $ 18,638 $ 19,073

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2.9 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3

GDP

($ Billon)

Growth in

GDP %

PART B – ECONOMY OF USA

Year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)




SECTORAL GROWTH RATE FOR US ECONOMY5:

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON U.S. ECONOMY:

1. US Federal Reserve has recently in April 29th, 2020, meeting has maintained the Federal funds

in a target range of 0 to 0.25%. They voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the

primary credit rate at the existing level of 0.25%.6

2. The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% in April,2020, the highest level since the Great

Depression since 1930. The Labor Department said 20.5 million people abruptly lost their jobs,

wiping out a decade of employment gains in a single month.7

3. Consumer prices fell 0.4% over the previous month in March, contrasting February’s 0.1% rise

and marking the largest monthly decline in prices since January 2015. Inflation decelerated to

an over one-year low of 1.5% in March from 2.3% in February, and came in a notch below

market expectations of 1.6% inflation. Chance of deflation in the US economy.8

4. EIA forecasts that the United States will return to being a net importer of crude oil and

petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and there will be fewer barrels available for

export.

Sectors Sub-sectors Contribution

in GDP

Quarterly growth rate (%)

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Manufacturing

Motors vehicles and parts, Household goods, Recreational goods, Appliances etc.

9.19% 3.11% 1.97% 0.68% (3.47)%

Food, Clothing and Footwear, Gasoline etc.

16.24% 1.58% 0.96% -

0.14% 1.86%

Services

Housing and Utilities 11.57% 0.28% 0.56% 0.09% 0.07%

Health care 11.44% 0.83% 0.14% 1.21% (4.64)%

Food services and accommodation

4.16% 1.19% 0.83% 0.25% (8.92)%

Financial services and insurance

4.60% 0.24% 0.57% 0.93% 0.83%

Other Services 5.91% 0.56% 1.38% 1.14% (1.88)%

Transport and Recreation Services

4.62% 1.72% 0.51% 0.81% (8.85)%




5. Brent crude oil prices averaged $32/ barrel (b) in March. EIA expects prices will average $23/b

during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $30/b during the second half of the year

and may rise to an average of $46/b in 2021.9

As a result, it can be anticipated that there may be no more exports of crude oil by US to

India in C.Y. 2020.

Oil exploration companies will suffer but sectors/ companies using crude and its derivatives

as inputs will benefit.

This is right opportunity for India to fill its 39 million barrels of oil strategic reserves apart

from 40-45-million-barrel capacity at refiners’ end, most of which is filled up. So by booking

crude in future markets, India can save its forex reserve and strengthen fiscal health. As

per UBS securities, import bill of India for crude is expected to decline from $ 84 billion in

FY20 to $ 50 billion in F.Y. 2021.9

Currently, India is exploring the possibility of storing crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum

Reserve of the US. Right now India has an existing storage capacity of 5.3 million tonnes

and the NDA government has also approved the construction of an additional 6.5 mt of

strategic crude oil reserves at Chandikhol (4 mt) in Odisha and Padur (2.5 mt) in

Karnataka. It will not only provide India with additional energy security but also help to tide

over short-term crude supply disruptions going ahead. 10

6. Coronavirus is forcing Americans to take debt. About 7% workers took out short-term loans,

20% are unsure about debt repayment as per a survey of University of Chicago.11

7. Overall manufacturing sector will be down but companies producing personal health care

products, medical supplies, household staples will perform far better.

8. Due to the coronavirus and lockdown, Americans have started shopping grocery online. So

business of e-commerce companies such as, Amazon, eBay, Walmart etc. will be boosted.

9. In the month of May, the U.S. Commerce Department tightened sanctions on iconic Chinese

technology firm Huawei. Days later, Washington added a further 33 Chinese entities to an

export control blacklist for alleged complicity in human rights violations or ties to the Chinese

military.12

10. In June month, US has imposed visa restrictions on the Chinese Communist Party officials

believed to be responsible for restricting freedoms in Hong Kong.12




11. Concurrently, U.S. legislators tabled bills that would restrict a federal pension fund from

investing in Chinese stocks. So this is a kind of golden opportunity for India to allure these

pension funds investment worth trillions of dollars to invest in Indian economy and stock

market.11

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & USA 201913:

Products

Share (%) of total business in 2019

Import Export

Precious Stones, Gems and Jewellery etc. 23.12 19.92

Pharmaceuticals -- 10.29

Nuclear reactor, Boilers, Mechanical items etc. 10.06 7.69

Vehicles other than Railways or Trams or its parts thereof -- 5.45

Plastic and Articles thereof -- 4.72

Mineral fuels, Oils and others products 20.51 --

Organic Chemicals 5.24 --

Electrical machinery, equipments and consumer durables etc.

5.20 --




IMF:

PLGE: (10.2)%

PCGE: 5.9)%

World Bank:

PLGE: (6.1)%

PCGE: (7.9)%

Fitch rating:

PLGE: (5.6)%

PCGE: (5.6)%

Moody*:

PTCE: (3.1)%

PECE: 0.2%

JP Morgan:

PLGE: (25)%

PCGE: N/P

S&P:

PLGE: (5.2)%

PCGE: (1.3)%

PLGE = Post- Corona Latest Growth Estimate

PCGE = Pre-Corona Growth Estimate

N/P = Not Provided, *= Degrowth in Q2 FY20

OCED= Organization for Economic Corporation and Development,

S& P = Stand & Poor rating agency

IMF = International Monetary fund

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATE BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES14




INTRODUCTION:

China is the second-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $14.14 trillion in 2019 and on

Purchasing power parity (PPP) basis $27.31 trillion. It makes up 16.38% of the global

economy.1

Service sector contributes around 52% in the economy whereas the industry sector contribution

is around 41% and rest by the agriculture.

Top trading partners of China in 2019 as per worldtoexports.com is United States $ 418.6 billion

(16.8% of China’s total exports) and trade with India was $74.9 billion (3% of China’s total

exports).2

In 2019, India exported goods worth $ 16.752 Bn to China that constitutes 5.075% of India’s

total exports. Whereas India imported goods worth $ 70.319 Bn from China that constitutes

13.68% of India’s imports from the world. Trade Deficit of India with China in 2019 - $53.567 Bn,

down by 15.03% Y-o-Y.3

According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, Chinese investments in India between

January-September 2019 were to the tune of US$0.19 Bn and Cumulative Chinese investment

in India till the end of September 2019 amounted to US$5.08 Bn. Cumulative Indian investment

in China until September 2019 is US$ 0.92 Bn.4

Reasons of trade deficit with China could be attributed to the following factors:

A narrow basket of commodities, mostly primary, that India exports to China.

Market access impediments for most of India’s agricultural products and the sectors where

India has competitive edge, such as pharmaceuticals, IT/ITeS etc.

To reduce this trade deficit, the Indian government and its officials are making efforts. For

instance, various protocols have been signed to facilitate export of Indian rice, rapeseed

meal, tobacco, fishmeal/ fish oil, chili meal to China etc. so as to reduce India’s mounting

trade deficit with China.5

PART C – ECONOMY OF CHINA




QUARTER WISE CONTRIBUTION TO CHINESE ECONOMY (100 MILLION YUAN)6:

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & CHINA 20197:

Sl. No.

Export product % share of total export to China

Import product % share of

total import to China

1 Chemicals 19.78 Chemicals 13.71

2 Mineral fuels and Oils, Its derivative products etc.

17.08 Electrical Machinery & Equipments, Consumer durables items

29.35

3 Cotton 10.61 Nuclear reactor, Boilers, Mechanical items

19.02

4 Ores, Slag and Ash 7.31 Fertilizers 2.93

5 Plastic and Articles thereof

6.62 Articles of Iron or Steel 2.47

Particulars Q1 2019 2Q 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

Gross Domestic Product, Current Quarter (CQ)

218,062.80 242,573.80 252,208.70 278,019.70 206,504.30

Change in above figure (%) 7.42% 11.24% 3.97% 10.23% -25.72%

Value-added of the Primary Industry (CQ)

8,769.40 14,437.60 19,798.00 27,461.60 10,186.20


Value-added of the Secondary Industry(CQ)

81,806.50 97,315.60 97,790.40 109,252.80 73,638.00


Value-added of the Tertiary Industry (CQ)

127,486.90 130,820.60 134,620.40 141,305.20 122,680.10





As per United Nations Conference on Trade and Development dated March 4th, 2020 the impact of slowdown in China and coronavirus effect on various sectors of India is shown in below

image8.

Impacted Industries in India




IMF:

PLGE: 1.0%

PCGE: 1.2%

Nomura:

PLGE: 2.6%

PCGE: 1%

NBSC:

PLGE: (6.8)%

PCGE: N/P

S&P:

PLGE: 1.2%

PCGE: 2.9%

EIU:

PLGE: 1.4%

PCGE: 5.4%

Fitch ratings:

PLGE: 1.2%

PCGE: 0.7%

IMF = International Monetary fund



EIU = Economic Intelligence Unit

CICC = China Investment Capital Corporation

S & P = Standard and Poor’s rating agency

NBSC = National Bureau of Statistics of China

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES FOR CHINA BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES9




INTRODUCTION:

The United Kingdom (UK) is the sixth-largest national economy in the world which comprising of

3.3% of the world GDP.1

In nominal terms 2019, GDP was $2.744 trillion and Purchasing power parity (PPP) terms 2019

GDP was $3.162 trillion.1

In UK, service sector dominates by contributing around 70% of total GDP. Industry contributes

17% and rest by the agriculture.

In 2019, India exported goods worth $9.31 Bn to the UK that constitutes 2.82% of India’s total

exports. Whereas India imported goods worth $7.56 Bn that constitutes 1.47% of India’s imports

from the world. India is having trade surplus of $1.75 Bn.2

GDP CALCULATED BY USING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (SA) CHAIN VALUE

MEASURES (CVM) (£ MILLION) FIGURES3:

Particulars 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP 19,95,478 20,33,234 20,60,494 20,89,519

GDP growth (%) 1.92% 1.89% 1.34% 1.41%

GDP LATEST QUARTER ON QUARTER (Q-o-Q) GROWTH: CVM SA%4:

Particulars Q12019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

GDP growth (%) 0.67% -0.16% 0.52% 0.02% -1.98%

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM (IN CRORES) IS PRESENTED IN

THE TABLE BELOW5:

Particulars 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exports 57,769.86 57,181.81 62,431.40 65,104.79

Imports 33,936.30 24,583.50 3,0,989.47 52,744.20

Trade Surplus/ (Deficit) 23,833.55 32,598.31 31,441.92 12,360.59

PART D – ECONOMY OF UNITED

KINGDOM


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_sector




EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & UK 20196:

FDI EQUITY FLOW FROM UK TO INDIA (PROVISIONAL) ($ MILLION)7:

*CUMULATIVE INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS SINCE APRIL 2000 TO MARCH 2019

Products Share (%) of total business in 2019

Import Export

Gems and Jewellery Products 30.45 5.38

Pharmaceuticals -- 5.73

Nuclear reactor, Boilers, Mechanical items etc. 15.65 11.41

Vehicles other than Railways or Trams or its parts thereof

-- 4.57

Clothing and Accessories -- 17.24

Crude and its derivative products 6.05 --

Iron & Steel 5.50 --


5.27 --

Particulars 2017 2018 2019 Cumulative Inflows &

/Outflows*

Inflows 9,953 5,473 9,352 140,370

Outflows 1,483 847 1,351 26,789




IMF*:

PLGE: (10.2)%

PCGE: (6.5)%%

Fitch Solutions*:

PLGE: 1.1%

PCGE: (2.5)%

S&P*:

PLGE: (6.5)%

PCGE: 2%

Fitch Rating*:

PLGE: (9.0)%

PCGE: (7.8)%

Moody's Analytics#:

PLGE: (10.3)%

PCGE: 0.3%

IMF = International Monetary Fund



OCED= Organization for Economic Corporation and Development,

S&P= Standard & Poor’s rating agency

*= Calendar Year’s Growth Rate

#= Q2 CY20

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATE OF UK BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES8




INTRODUCTION:

Japan, the third-largest economy in the world, contributes almost 6% to the global GDP.1

It is the third-largest in the world by nominal GDP in 2019, i.e. $5.154 trillion and the fourth-

largest by Purchasing power parity (PPP) 2019, i.e. $5.712 trillion.2

In 2018, Japan was the world's fourth-largest importer and the fourth-largest exporter in the

world.2

Services sector contribution was 74.6% and agriculture as well as industries contribution was

1.4% and 24% respectively of total country GDP.2

Japan’s GDP again touched mark of $5 trillion in 2019 and is expected to expand to $6.26

billion by 2024 based on current growth estimates.1

In 2019, India exported goods worth $ 4.86 Bn to Japan that constitutes 1.47% of India’s total

exports. Whereas India imported goods worth $12.77 Bn from japan that constitutes 2.48% of

India’s imports from the world. Trade deficit was $7.91 Bn.3

Gujarat state government has written to the Japan government, Japan External Trade

Organization (JETRO) inviting Japanese companies to the state. This bodes well for the state,

as it already having a Japanese park. At the Central government level, a total area of 461,589

hectares has been identified across the country for this purpose, including 115,131 hectares of

that area alone in states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh etc.4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROWTH (%) RATE5:

Particulars 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP ($ Trillion) 4.93 4.86 4.97 5.514

Growth in GDP (Y-o-Y) 12.30% (1.42)% 2.26% 3.70%

PART E – ECONOMY OF JAPAN


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports




GDP LATEST QUARTER ON QUARTER (Q-o-Q) GROWTH6:

FDI EQUITY FLOW FROM JAPAN TO INDIA (PROVISIONAL) ($ MILLION)7:

*CUMULATIVE INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS SINCE APRIL 2000, TO MARCH 2019

INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE JAPAN (IN CRORES)8:

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & JAPAN 20198:

Particulars Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

GDP Growth Rate 0.8% 0.9% 1.7% (0.7)% (2.0)%

Particulars 2017 2018 2019 Cumulative Inflows/

Outflows*

Inflows 31,588 10,516 20,556 173,332

Outflow 4,709 1,633 2,965 30,274


Import Export

Pearls, precious and semi- precious metals -- 8.95

Nuclear reactor, Boilers, Machinery appliances etc. 26.68 8.59

Chemicals 9.05 12.10

Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Products etc. -- 11.09

Fish & Crustaceans, Mollusks, other aquatic invertebrates

-- 8.33

Plastics and products thereof 6.99 --


11.02 --

Iron and Steel 9.85 --

Particulars 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exports 30,434.66 25786.24 30,505.99 34,010.29

Imports 64,493.14 65,414.52 70,745.24 89,278.38

Trade Surplus/ (Deficit) (34,058.48) (39,628.28) (40,239.25) (55,268.09)




IMF = International Monetary Fund




BOJ = Bank of Japan

*= Calendar Year’s Growth Rate

IMF*:

PLGE: (5.8)%

PCGE: (5.2)%

Fitchsolutions:

PLGE: (3.5)%

PCGE: (1.9)%

BoJ*:

PLGE: (3) to (5)%

PCGE: (0.2)%

Fitch*:

PLGE: (5)%

PCGE: (2.7)%

World Bank

PLGE: (6.8)%

PCGE: (6.1)%

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES OF JAPAN BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES9




INTRODUCTION:

Germany is the fourth-largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Europe.1

Germany’s GDP at nominal in 2019 was at $ $3.86 trillion and Purchasing power parity (PPP) in

2019 was at $4.444 trillion.2

The service sector contributes around 70% of the total GDP, Industry 30%, and rest agriculture.

By 2023-24, Germany and India would be very close to each other in terms of the size of the

nominal GDP.1

In 2019, India exported goods worth $ 8.90 Bn to Germany that constitutes 2.70% of India’s

total exports. Whereas India imported goods worth $ 15.16 Bn from Germany that constitutes

2.95% of India’s imports from the world. Trade deficit was $ 6.26 Bn.

ECONOMIC DATA POINTS: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GROWTH RATE3:

EQUITY FLOW FROM GERMANY TO INDIA (PROVISIONAL) ($ MILLION)4:

*CUMULATIVE INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS SINCE APRIL 2000 TO MARCH 2019.

Particulars Q12019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

GDP at Current Prices (€ Bn) 843.5 845.6 864.3 881.8 847.4

GDP % Price Adjusted (1.96) 0.25 2.21 2.02 (3.9)

Particulars 2017 2018 2019 Cumulative Inflows (Outflows)*

Inflows 7,175 7,245 6,187 65,477

Outflows 1,069 1,124 886 11,708

PART F – ECONOMY OF GERMANY

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tertiary_sector_of_industry




INDIA’S TRADE BALANCE WITH THE GERMANY (IN CRORES)5:

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BETWEEN INDIA & GERMANY 20196:

Particulars 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exports 46,456.63 48,153.70 55,993.63 62,200.62

Imports 79,098.17 77,704.41 85,700.20 106,130.52

Trade Surplus/ (Deficit)

(32,641.54) (29,550.71) (29,706.57) (43,929.89)


Import Export

Vehicles other than Railways or Trams or its parts thereof

6.81 5.12

Nuclear reactor, Boilers, Machinery appliances etc. 29.98 16.06

Chemicals -- 8.45

Apparel and Accessories -- 12.83

Aircraft, Spacecraft and Parts thereof 9.78 --

Optical, Photographic & cinematographic measuring, medical & surgical instruments etc.

8.69 --


11.48 7.02




IMF*:

PLGE: (7)%

PCGE: 1.1%

Fitch Rating:

PLGE: (6.3)%

PCGE: (6.7)%

Moody's*:

PLGE: (10.7)%

PCGE: 0.4%

CFR*:

PLGE: (3)% - (10)%

PCGE: N/P

World Bank$:

PLGE: (9.0)%

PCGE: (10)%




*= Calendar Year’s Growth Rate,

$=world bank Euro zone degrowth rate

CFR = Council on Foreign Relations.

IMF* = International Monetary Fund

GDP GROWTH (%) ESTIMATES OF GERMANY BY DIFFERENT AGENCIES7




PART A:

1. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1642586

2. Hyperlink for Growth Projection for India:

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-scare-india-ratings-cuts-india-gdp-

forecast-36-from-55-for-fy21/story/399615.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/fitch-slashes-india-growth-forecast-to-30-

year-low-of-2-for-fy21/articleshow/74967144.cms

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-economy-may-contract-by-45-in-june-quarter-goldman-sachs-

11589728732340.html

https://scroll.in/latest/960685/covid-19-crisil-research-says-pandemic-may-cause-permanent-loss-of-4-in-

indias-gdp

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-to-contract-3-1-in-2020-

moodys/articleshow/76515744.cms?from=mdr

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/world-bank-sees-india-s-fy21-gdp-growth-at-1-5-4-

11586682911939.html

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/further-economic-forecast-cuts-global-recession-

bottoming-out-26-05-2020 & https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/unparalleled-global-

recession-underway-22-04-2020

https://www.indiaratings.co.in/PressRelease?pressReleaseID=41404&title=GDP-to-Contract-by-5.3%25-

in-FY21%2C-Bounce-Back-in-FY22.

https://www.dnaindia.com/business/report-rbi-survey-axes-india-s-gdp-growth-by-15-in-2020-21-2826996

3. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecntq.asp

China:-

4. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-its-impact-on-various-

sectors/textiles/slideshow/74490805.cms

5. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-pharma-stocks-that-may-gain-or-lose-

from-china-disruption/big-crisis/slideshow/74204465.cms

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-scare-india-ratings-cuts-india-gdp-forecast-36-from-55-for-fy21/story/399615.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-scare-india-ratings-cuts-india-gdp-forecast-36-from-55-for-fy21/story/399615.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/fitch-slashes-india-growth-forecast-to-30-year-low-of-2-for-fy21/articleshow/74967144.cms

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https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-economy-may-contract-by-45-in-june-quarter-goldman-sachs-11589728732340.html

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/indian-economy-may-contract-by-45-in-june-quarter-goldman-sachs-11589728732340.html

https://scroll.in/latest/960685/covid-19-crisil-research-says-pandemic-may-cause-permanent-loss-of-4-in-indias-gdp

https://scroll.in/latest/960685/covid-19-crisil-research-says-pandemic-may-cause-permanent-loss-of-4-in-indias-gdp

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-to-contract-3-1-in-2020-moodys/articleshow/76515744.cms?from=mdr

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https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/world-bank-sees-india-s-fy21-gdp-growth-at-1-5-4-11586682911939.html

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/world-bank-sees-india-s-fy21-gdp-growth-at-1-5-4-11586682911939.html

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/further-economic-forecast-cuts-global-recession-bottoming-out-26-05-2020


https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/unparalleled-global-recession-underway-22-04-2020


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https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecntq.asp

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-its-impact-on-various-%20%20%20sectors/textiles/slideshow/74490805.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-its-impact-on-various-%20%20%20sectors/textiles/slideshow/74490805.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-pharma-stocks-that-may-gain-or-lose-from-china-disruption/big-crisis/slideshow/74204465.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus-pharma-stocks-that-may-gain-or-lose-from-china-disruption/big-crisis/slideshow/74204465.cms




6. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/electronics/coronavirus-outbreak-china-shutdowns-

hit-indian-electronics-companies/articleshow/73752743.cms?from=mdr

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imports/articleshow/74143474.cms

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affected-due-to-coronavirus-attack-in-china-cmai/articleshow/74223014.cms

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supply-chain-disrupted-if-coronavirus-persists-icra/articleshow/74210052.cms&

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10. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/sme-sector/trade-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-sectors-

overdependent-on-chinese-imports-face-a-grim-reality/articleshow/74312184.cms&

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/gold/global-spread-of-coronavirus-seen-to-take-heavy-toll-on-gem-

jewellery-exports/article30912712.ece

USA:-

11. https://www.kyivpost.com/business/india-pharmacy-of-the-world.html&

https://commerce.gov.in/InnerContent.aspx?Id=506

12. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/indian-it-firms-have-high-exposure-to-us-

citi/articleshow/2859229.cms?from=mdr https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india

13. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indian-textile-exporters-to-gain-from-us-china-tariff-

fight/article27162510.ece# http://www.retail4growth.com/news/impact-of-covid-19-on-the-indian-apparel-textile-

industry-4963

14. https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/india-hopes-to-tap-1-billion-of-jewellery-export-opportunity-to-

us-119091101212_1.html

15. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indias-import-of-us-oil-jumps-10-fold-to-250000-

bpd/articleshow/74302108.cms?from=mdr

United Kingdom:-

16. https://commerce.gov.in/InnerContent.aspx?Id=506

17. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-faces-national-shortage-of-paracetamol-as-india-restricts-

exports/articleshow/74799852.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/electronics/coronavirus-outbreak-china-shutdowns-hit-indian-electronics-companies/articleshow/73752743.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/electronics/coronavirus-outbreak-china-shutdowns-hit-indian-electronics-companies/articleshow/73752743.cms?from=mdr

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/virus-may-hit-28-indian-imports/articleshow/74143474.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/virus-may-hit-28-indian-imports/articleshow/74143474.cms

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/cons-products/garments-/-textiles/indian-textile-and-apparel-industry-to-be-affected-due-to-coronavirus-attack-in-china-cmai/articleshow/74223014.cms

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/cons-products/garments-/-textiles/indian-textile-and-apparel-industry-to-be-affected-due-to-coronavirus-attack-in-china-cmai/articleshow/74223014.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/auto-news/indian-auto-industry-to-be-negatively-impacted-supply-chain-disrupted-if-coronavirus-persists-icra/articleshow/74210052.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/auto-news/indian-auto-industry-to-be-negatively-impacted-supply-chain-disrupted-if-coronavirus-persists-icra/articleshow/74210052.cms

https://www.motorbeam.com/effect-of-coronavirus-on-indian-automobile-industry/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/sme-sector/trade-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-sectors-overdependent-on-chinese-imports-face-a-grim-reality/articleshow/74312184.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/sme-sector/trade-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-sectors-overdependent-on-chinese-imports-face-a-grim-reality/articleshow/74312184.cms

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/gold/global-spread-of-coronavirus-seen-to-take-heavy-toll-on-gem-jewellery-exports/article30912712.ece

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/gold/global-spread-of-coronavirus-seen-to-take-heavy-toll-on-gem-jewellery-exports/article30912712.ece

https://www.kyivpost.com/business/india-pharmacy-of-the-world.html&


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/indian-it-firms-have-high-exposure-to-us-citi/articleshow/2859229.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/indian-it-firms-have-high-exposure-to-us-citi/articleshow/2859229.cms?from=mdr

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indian-textile-exporters-to-gain-from-us-china-tariff-fight/article27162510.ece

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indian-textile-exporters-to-gain-from-us-china-tariff-fight/article27162510.ece

http://www.retail4growth.com/news/impact-of-covid-19-on-the-indian-apparel-textile-industry-4963

http://www.retail4growth.com/news/impact-of-covid-19-on-the-indian-apparel-textile-industry-4963

https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/india-hopes-to-tap-1-billion-of-jewellery-export-opportunity-to-us-119091101212_1.html

https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/india-hopes-to-tap-1-billion-of-jewellery-export-opportunity-to-us-119091101212_1.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indias-import-of-us-oil-jumps-10-fold-to-250000-bpd/articleshow/74302108.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/indias-import-of-us-oil-jumps-10-fold-to-250000-bpd/articleshow/74302108.cms?from=mdr


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-faces-national-shortage-of-paracetamol-as-india-restricts-exports/articleshow/74799852.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/uk-faces-national-shortage-of-paracetamol-as-india-restricts-exports/articleshow/74799852.cms




18. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/india/foreign-trade-harmonized-system-2-digits-united-kingdom/exports-uk-apparel--

clothing-accessories-not-knitted

19. https://footwearnews.com/2020/business/retail/fashion-revenues-uk-coronavirus-1202954949/

20. https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-impact-gems-and-jewellery-domestic-sales-

tank-80-exports-50-in-10-days/story/398809.html

21. https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/coronavirus-impact-gems-jewellery-exports-stare-at-steep-fall-in-

q1-next-fiscal-5586621.htm

Japan:-

22. https://chemexcil.in/uploads/general/56_annaul_report_2018_19.pdf (Same)

Germany:-

23. https://agriexchange.apeda.gov.in/indexp/18headgenReportmonth_combine.aspx

24. https://commerce.gov.in/InnerContent.aspx?Id=506

25. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-ship-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-countries-first-consignment-1665759-

2020-04-11

26. https://chemexcil.in/uploads/general/56_annaul_report_2018_19.pdf

Mutual Funds:-

27. www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/mutual-funds-investing-in-debt-funds-see-rs-1-95-lakh-crore-

outflow-in-mar-120041300733_1.html

28. https://thewire.in/economy/after-franklin-fiasco-rbi-steps-in-with-rs-50000-crore-liquidity-support-for-mutual-funds

29. https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/corporates-raise-rs-2-trillion-through-bond-market-in-q1-of-

fy21-11593691199142.html

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amid-pandemic-worries-investors/articleshow/76275098.cms & https://www.news18.com/news/business/sip-

inflows-hit-11-month-low-in-may-amid-market-volatility-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-2666403.html

Gold:-

31. https://www.bloombergquint.com/personal-finance/gold-has-been-volatile-amid-covid-19-chaos-is-it-still-a-safe-

haven

32. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/76738269.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&u

tm_campaign=cppst

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/india/foreign-trade-harmonized-system-2-digits-united-kingdom/exports-uk-apparel--clothing-accessories-not-knitted

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/india/foreign-trade-harmonized-system-2-digits-united-kingdom/exports-uk-apparel--clothing-accessories-not-knitted

https://footwearnews.com/2020/business/retail/fashion-revenues-uk-coronavirus-1202954949/

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-impact-gems-and-jewellery-domestic-sales-tank-80-exports-50-in-10-days/story/398809.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-impact-gems-and-jewellery-domestic-sales-tank-80-exports-50-in-10-days/story/398809.html

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/coronavirus-impact-gems-jewellery-exports-stare-at-steep-fall-in-q1-next-fiscal-5586621.htm

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/coronavirus-impact-gems-jewellery-exports-stare-at-steep-fall-in-q1-next-fiscal-5586621.htm

https://chemexcil.in/uploads/general/56_annaul_report_2018_19.pdf

https://agriexchange.apeda.gov.in/indexp/18headgenReportmonth_combine.aspx


https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-ship-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-countries-first-consignment-1665759-2020-04-11

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-ship-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-countries-first-consignment-1665759-2020-04-11

https://chemexcil.in/uploads/general/56_annaul_report_2018_19.pdf

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/mutual-funds-investing-in-debt-funds-see-rs-1-95-lakh-crore-outflow-in-mar-120041300733_1.html

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/mutual-funds-investing-in-debt-funds-see-rs-1-95-lakh-crore-outflow-in-mar-120041300733_1.html

https://thewire.in/economy/after-franklin-fiasco-rbi-steps-in-with-rs-50000-crore-liquidity-support-for-mutual-funds

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/corporates-raise-rs-2-trillion-through-bond-market-in-q1-of-fy21-11593691199142.html

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/corporates-raise-rs-2-trillion-through-bond-market-in-q1-of-fy21-11593691199142.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mf/analysis/lump-sum-flows-into-equity-mutual-funds-slow-as-stock-rush-amid-pandemic-worries-investors/articleshow/76275098.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mf/analysis/lump-sum-flows-into-equity-mutual-funds-slow-as-stock-rush-amid-pandemic-worries-investors/articleshow/76275098.cms

https://www.news18.com/news/business/sip-inflows-hit-11-month-low-in-may-amid-market-volatility-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-2666403.html

https://www.news18.com/news/business/sip-inflows-hit-11-month-low-in-may-amid-market-volatility-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-2666403.html

https://www.bloombergquint.com/personal-finance/gold-has-been-volatile-amid-covid-19-chaos-is-it-still-a-safe-haven

https://www.bloombergquint.com/personal-finance/gold-has-been-volatile-amid-covid-19-chaos-is-it-still-a-safe-haven

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/76738269.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/76738269.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst




Real Estate:-

33. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/property-/-cstruction/housing-sales-dip-42-in-jan-mar-at-

45200-units-amid-coronavirus-concerns-report/articleshow/74824308.cms?from=mdr

34. https://www.99acres.com/microsite/articles/files/2020/04/indian-real-estate-report-jan-mar-2020.pdf

Sector Wise Micro Analysis:-

35. Data taken from “The economic Times” 30th July, 2020 edition for Stuttering Recovery article.

PART B:

1. https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-05/gdp1q20_adv.pdf

2. https://www.ustradenumbers.com/country/india/

3. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-5-largest-economies-in-the-world-and-their-growth-in-2020-2020-01-22

4. https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

5. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/gdp1q20_2nd_0.pdf

6. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200429a1.html

7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/08/april-2020-jobs-report/

8. https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states/news/inflation/inflation-weakens-to-over-one-year-low-

in-march-amid-covid-19

9. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/why-india-barely-gains-from-historic-low-crude-prices-

11587450367271.html

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/editorials/2020/apr/24/opportunities-for-india-as-price-of-crude-

plunges-amid-covid-19-crisis-2134480.html

10. https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/india-may-store-crude-oil-in-us-strategic-petroleum-reserves-

11595001301592.html

11. https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-outbreak-americans-debt-savings-supplies

12. https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/with-china-sanctions-america-pushes-the-limits-of-its-financial-power/

13. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/Icntcom.asp & https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp

14. Hyperlink of Growth projections for USA:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/property-/-cstruction/housing-sales-dip-42-in-jan-mar-at-45200-units-amid-coronavirus-concerns-report/articleshow/74824308.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/property-/-cstruction/housing-sales-dip-42-in-jan-mar-at-45200-units-amid-coronavirus-concerns-report/articleshow/74824308.cms?from=mdr

https://www.99acres.com/microsite/articles/files/2020/04/indian-real-estate-report-jan-mar-2020.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-05/gdp1q20_adv.pdf

https://www.ustradenumbers.com/country/india/

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-5-largest-economies-in-the-world-and-their-growth-in-2020-2020-01-22

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/gdp1q20_2nd_0.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200429a1.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/08/april-2020-jobs-report/

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states/news/inflation/inflation-weakens-to-over-one-year-low-in-march-amid-covid-19

https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states/news/inflation/inflation-weakens-to-over-one-year-low-in-march-amid-covid-19

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/why-india-barely-gains-from-historic-low-crude-prices-11587450367271.html

https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/why-india-barely-gains-from-historic-low-crude-prices-11587450367271.html

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/editorials/2020/apr/24/opportunities-for-india-as-price-of-crude-plunges-amid-covid-19-crisis-2134480.html

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/editorials/2020/apr/24/opportunities-for-india-as-price-of-crude-plunges-amid-covid-19-crisis-2134480.html

https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/india-may-store-crude-oil-in-us-strategic-petroleum-reserves-11595001301592.html

https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/india-may-store-crude-oil-in-us-strategic-petroleum-reserves-11595001301592.html

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/coronavirus-outbreak-americans-debt-savings-supplies

https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/with-china-sanctions-america-pushes-the-limits-of-its-financial-power/

https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/Icntcom.asp




https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 &

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-

it-mostly-right/

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/jpmorgan-slashes-its-gdp-forecast-for-next-quarter-now-

sees-a-25-contraction-and-imminent-recession-despite-herculean-stimulusmeasures

/articleshow/74833507.cms

https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/world-bank-pegs-indias-growth-for-fy20-

at-5/articleshow/73164711.cms?from=mdr


bottoming-out-26-05-2020 & https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/unparalleled-global-

recession-underway-22-04-2020

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/fitch-ratings-cuts-2020-global-growth-forecast-to-13-raises-estimate-

for-2021-5629251.html

PART C:


2. http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/

3. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/Icntcom.asp

4. https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/economic-and-trade-relation.php

5. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-china-could-explore-measures-to-

boost-trade-hit-by-covid-19/articleshow/74977563.cms?from=mdr

6. http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01

7. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/Icntcom.asp & https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp

8. https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcinf2020d1.pdf

9. Hyperlink of Growth projections for China:

https://in.reuters.com/article/china-economy-goldman/goldman-sees-chinas-economy-shrinking-9-in-first-

quarter-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idINKBN2140Q5

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3076745/coronavirus-chinas-2020-growth-

forecast-slashed-surprise-move

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020%20&%20https:/www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/



https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/jpmorgan-slashes-its-gdp-forecast-for-next-quarter-now-sees-a-25-contraction-and-imminent-recession-despite-herculean-stimulusmeasures%20/articleshow/74833507.cms




https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/world-bank-pegs-indias-growth-for-fy20-at-5/articleshow/73164711.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/world-bank-pegs-indias-growth-for-fy20-at-5/articleshow/73164711.cms?from=mdr





https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/fitch-ratings-cuts-2020-global-growth-forecast-to-13-raises-estimate-for-2021-5629251.htm

https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/fitch-ratings-cuts-2020-global-growth-forecast-to-13-raises-estimate-for-2021-5629251.htm


http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/


https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/economic-and-trade-relation.php

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-china-could-explore-measures-to-boost-trade-hit-by-covid-19/articleshow/74977563.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-china-could-explore-measures-to-boost-trade-hit-by-covid-19/articleshow/74977563.cms?from=mdr

http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01


https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp

https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditcinf2020d1.pdf

https://in.reuters.com/article/china-economy-goldman/goldman-sees-chinas-economy-shrinking-9-in-first-quarter-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idINKBN2140Q5

https://in.reuters.com/article/china-economy-goldman/goldman-sees-chinas-economy-shrinking-9-in-first-quarter-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idINKBN2140Q5

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3076745/coronavirus-chinas-2020-growth-forecast-slashed-surprise-move

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3076745/coronavirus-chinas-2020-growth-forecast-slashed-surprise-move




https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/eiu-lowers-global-growth-forecast-for-

2020-amid-coronavirus-scare/articleshow/74095173.cms?from=mdr & http://country.eiu.com/(F(YQcexu-

0sYstWTQXrXmgAYHN3j6_u18jw5BABl3xVd5kvVPMGMFZTy2Wlg1zATBit7Lt_vtvWdvtKzkilKICB_ZPWa

Me_CfL-iBmRKO1mo81))/china


https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020


bottoming-out-26-05-2020 & https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/key-

monthly-global-views-q3-bounce-sight-some-ems-could-lag-19-06 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/china-will-not-set-gdp-target-for-2020-as-coronavirus-batters-

economy.html

https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/the-economy-next-week/

PART D:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

2. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp & https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/Icntcom.asp

3. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea%09%09%09

https:/www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea

4. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2

5. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecnt.asp


7. https://dipp.gov.in/sites/default/files/FDI_Factsheet_27May2019.pdf

8. UK Hyperlink for growth projections:

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-larger-

contractions-economic-activity-03-04-2020


https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-effect-fitch-cuts-india-growth-forecast-

to-08-for-fy21/story/401823.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-gdp-jp-morgan/jpmorgan-further-lowers-us-growth-

forecast-for-q1-q2-report-idUSL1N2BL0B4

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/eiu-lowers-global-growth-forecast-for-2020-amid-coronavirus-scare/articleshow/74095173.cms?from=mdr

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/eiu-lowers-global-growth-forecast-for-2020-amid-coronavirus-scare/articleshow/74095173.cms?from=mdr

http://country.eiu.com/(F(YQcexu-0sYstWTQXrXmgAYHN3j6_u18jw5BABl3xVd5kvVPMGMFZTy2Wlg1zATBit7Lt_vtvWdvtKzkilKICB_ZPWaMe_CfL-iBmRKO1mo81))/china



https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020%20https:/www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/




https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/key-monthly-global-views-q3-bounce-sight-some-ems-could-lag-19-06%202020?fSWebArticleValidation=true&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJZMU5UVXpaakkyTXpRNCIsInQiOiJTUH

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/key-monthly-global-views-q3-bounce-sight-some-ems-could-lag-19-06%202020?fSWebArticleValidation=true&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJZMU5UVXpaakkyTXpRNCIsInQiOiJTUH

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/china-will-not-set-gdp-target-for-2020-as-coronavirus-batters-economy.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/china-will-not-set-gdp-target-for-2020-as-coronavirus-batters-economy.html

https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/the-economy-next-week/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea%09%09%09%20https:/www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea%09%09%09%20https:/www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/ukea

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/pn2

https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecnt.asp

https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/ecntcom.asp%20%20&


https://dipp.gov.in/sites/default/files/FDI_Factsheet_27May2019.pdf

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-larger-contractions-economic-activity-03-04-2020

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-larger-contractions-economic-activity-03-04-2020


https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-effect-fitch-cuts-india-growth-forecast-to-08-for-fy21/story/401823.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-effect-fitch-cuts-india-growth-forecast-to-08-for-fy21/story/401823.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-gdp-jp-morgan/jpmorgan-further-lowers-us-growth-forecast-for-q1-q2-report-idUSL1N2BL0B4

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-gdp-jp-morgan/jpmorgan-further-lowers-us-growth-forecast-for-q1-q2-report-idUSL1N2BL0B4





bottoming-out-26-05-2020

PART E:


2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan


4. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/gujarat-woos-us-and-japan-cos-from-

china/articleshow/75118802.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/covid-19-india-offers-land-twice-luxembourgs-size-

to-firms-leaving-china/articleshow/75546291.cms

5. https://data.worldbank.org/country/japan?view=chart

6. https://www.japanmacroadvisors.com/page/category/economic-indicators/gdp-and-business-activity/gdp/



9. Japan Hyperlink of the Growth:

https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/imf-projects-india-s-gdp-growth-at-1-9-in-2020-266558-

newsdetails.html

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-tracking-

lower-20-03-2020

https://your.fitch.group/rs/732-CKH-767/images/global-economic-outlook-march-

2020_Fitch_10114514.pdf?

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020https:/www.brookings.

edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/



bottoming-out-26-05-2020.

PART F:


2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Germany




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Japan



https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/gujarat-woos-us-and-japan-cos-from-china/articleshow/75118802.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/gujarat-woos-us-and-japan-cos-from-china/articleshow/75118802.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/covid-19-india-offers-land-twice-luxembourgs-size-to-firms-leaving-china/articleshow/75546291.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/covid-19-india-offers-land-twice-luxembourgs-size-to-firms-leaving-china/articleshow/75546291.cms

https://data.worldbank.org/country/japan?view=chart

https://www.japanmacroadvisors.com/page/category/economic-indicators/gdp-and-business-activity/gdp/




https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/imf-projects-india-s-gdp-growth-at-1-9-in-2020-266558-newsdetails.htm

https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/imf-projects-india-s-gdp-growth-at-1-9-in-2020-266558-newsdetails.htm

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-tracking-lower-20-03-2020

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/covid-19-growth-revisions-tracking-lower-20-03-2020

https://your.fitch.group/rs/732-CKH-767/images/global-economic-outlook-march-2020_Fitch_10114514.pdf?

https://your.fitch.group/rs/732-CKH-767/images/global-economic-outlook-march-2020_Fitch_10114514.pdf?

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020https:/www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020https:/www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Germany




3. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/Tables/gdp-bubbles.html


5. https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecnt.asp


7. Hyperlink of the German GDP forecast:

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/coronavirus-imf-says-global-economy-on-track-to-shrink-by-3-in-

2020-1667054-2020-04-157 &


https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/coronavirus-how-are-countries-responding-economic-crisis

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/gdp-round-covid-19-significantly-dents-

europes-regional-growth-prospects-11-03-2020? https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-

gdp-forecast-stable-as-coronavirus-disruption-eases-29-06-2020

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/17/japan-economy-heading-for-recession-and-germany-

wobbles

https://www.moneylife.in/article/coronavirus-crisis-is-crushing-gdp-growth-we-are-in-global-recession-

territory-says-fitch/59779.htmls

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/Tables/gdp-bubbles.html


https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecnt.asp



https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/coronavirus-imf-says-global-economy-on-track-to-shrink-by-3-in-2020-1667054-2020-04-157

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/coronavirus-imf-says-global-economy-on-track-to-shrink-by-3-in-2020-1667054-2020-04-157

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020%20https:/www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/14/the-world-economy-in-2020-the-imf-gets-it-mostly-right/

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/coronavirus-how-are-countries-responding-economic-crisis

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/gdp-round-covid-19-significantly-dents-europes-regional-growth-prospects-11-03-2020?

https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/economics/gdp-round-covid-19-significantly-dents-europes-regional-growth-prospects-11-03-2020?

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-gdp-forecast-stable-as-coronavirus-disruption-eases-29-06-2020

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-gdp-forecast-stable-as-coronavirus-disruption-eases-29-06-2020

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/17/japan-economy-heading-for-recession-and-germany-wobbles

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/17/japan-economy-heading-for-recession-and-germany-wobbles

https://www.moneylife.in/article/coronavirus-crisis-is-crushing-gdp-growth-we-are-in-global-recession-territory-says-fitch/59779.htmls

https://www.moneylife.in/article/coronavirus-crisis-is-crushing-gdp-growth-we-are-in-global-recession-territory-says-fitch/59779.htmls

Mohit Agarwal Executive Vice President (Projects) Mobile No.– 9999597597 [email protected]

Analysis by:

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2. Pankaj Singh, Financial Analyst [email protected]

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FINANCIAL ANALYST TEAM R.K ASSOCIATES VALUERS & … · COVID-19: ECONOMIC IMPACT AND INDIA’S RECOVERY COVID IMPACT ANALYSIS Page 6 of 59 2020 April’ INDIA’S CHORONOLOGY OF EVENTS