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First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) Earnings Release May 10, 2012

First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

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Page 1: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

First Quarter 2012 (1Q12)

Earnings Release

May 10, 2012

Page 2: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

GSA - Revenue

840

874

1Q11 1Q12

4%

Page 3: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Revenue by Segment

Passenger Personnel

653665

1Q11 1Q12

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

2%12%

Page 4: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 5: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

157180 191

237

145

191

233 243

172

20%21% 21%

25%

17%

21%

24%25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

GSA Performance

EBIT EBITDA & Margin

66

95

1Q11 1Q12

43%

Absence of Easter Season on both 1Q11 & 1Q12

Page 6: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 7: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Passenger EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

Leverage on senior management experience to overcome market conditions

Page 8: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 9: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Personnel Revenue

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

12%

This segment keeps its growing trend

Page 10: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 11: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Personnel Segment Presence

Current Presence:

►Coahuila

►San Luis Potosí

►Tamaulipas

►Nuevo León

In analysis:

►Jalisco

►Chihuahua

►Querétaro

►Aguascalientes

Page 12: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Personnel

Productivity Revenue per Kilometer

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

ene-0

9

mar-

09

may-0

9

jul-09

sep-0

9

nov-0

9

ene-1

0

mar-

10

may-1

0

jul-10

sep-1

0

nov-1

0

ene-1

1

mar-

11

may-1

1

jul-11

sep-1

1

nov-1

1

ene-1

2

mar-

12

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

ene-0

9

mar-

09

may-0

9

jul-09

sep

-09

nov-0

9

ene-1

0

mar-

10

may-1

0

jul-10

sep

-10

nov-1

0

ene-1

1

mar-

11

may-1

1

jul-11

sep

-11

nov-1

1

ene-1

2

mar-

12

5% Price increase.

Previous Previous

Page 13: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 14: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Guidance

►Revenues 2012: ~8% YOY

►EBITDA 2012 Margin >25% / Revenues

►EBITDA 2012: 21% YOY

Page 15: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 16: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Recent Appointment

Prior to becoming CEO, Mr. Contreras served as Chief

Financial Officer at Grupo Senda. He also held various

finance and management positions at

Cemex, McKinsey & Company and Grupo Financiero

Banorte.

Mr. Contreras holds an Engineering Degree from

Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de

Monterrey (ITESM) and a MBA from Columbia

University.

José Manuel ContrerasFormer Head of Finance / Current

Chief Executive Officer

Page 17: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 18: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

GSA - Revenue

840

874

1Q11 1Q12

4%

Page 19: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

GSA - Kilometers

65

59

1Q11 1Q12

9%

Page 20: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

157180

191

237

145

191

233 243

172

20%21% 21%

25%

17%

21%

24%25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

GSA Performance

EBIT EBITDA & Margin

66

95

1Q11 1Q12

43%

Page 21: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Passenger Revenue and EBITDA & Margin

Revenue EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

653665

1Q11 1Q12

2%

Page 22: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Passenger - Kilometers

46

39

1Q11 1Q12

15%

Page 23: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Passenger Revenue and EBITDA & Margin

Revenue EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

653665

1Q11 1Q12

2%

Page 24: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Personnel Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue EBITDA

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

12%

51 52

1Q11 1Q12

1%

Page 25: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 26: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Financial Ratios

Net Debt / EBITDA Cobertura Coverage

3.0x

4.5x

5.2x

3.4x

3.7x

3.2x

2.3x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P

2.3x

1.7x

1.4x

2.0x 2.1x2.2x

2.9x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P

Page 27: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Liability Management: Liquidity

Short Term Debt 2011 vs 1Q12 Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012

495

400355 355

436

95

4581

2011 Payments 1Q12

Refinanced ST Debt 1Q13

1Q12

ST Debt Payments 1Q13 ST Debt Refinanced

28%

436

403 392

354

495

313 305276 270

237

182

132

127 122

117

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012 E

CMLTD Banks

-28%

Page 28: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

313 305276 276 252

182

132127

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012

CMLTD Banks

Liability Management

CapEx Lines: Refinancing Short Term Debt

Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012

Post 3Q Refinancing

28

In addition, the Company will use CapEx lines to refinance short term debt

495

436

403 392

354

495

436403

CapEx lines

utilization

313 305276 270

237

182

132127 122

117

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012 E

CMLTD Banks

Page 29: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 30: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

Free Cash Flow

Concept (Ps millions) 1Q12

EBITDA 171.8

Net Working Capital -24.9

Taxes -1.4

Other Expenses -3.2

Operating Cash Flow 142.3

Financial Expense -41.0

CapEx (Replacement) -2.6

Free Cash Flow 98.8

30

Page 31: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:
Page 32: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

1,922

ST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Leases ST Banks Bond @12.81

Bond’s Alternatives – New Bond

32

305

214123

2,038

69

Page 33: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management:

384 384 384 384 384

1,922

ST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Syndicated Loan Leases ST Banks Bond @12.81

Bond’s Alternatives – Syndicated Loan

33

305214

123

501 453

Page 34: First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x 1.4x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P. Liability Management: