First results from the HyMeX-SOP1 field First results from the HyMeX-SOP1 field campaign dedicated to Mediterranean campaign dedicated to Mediterranean

heavy precipitation and flash-floodsheavy precipitation and flash-floods

Véronique DucrocqVéronique Ducrocq(CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, Toulouse, France)(CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, Toulouse, France)

with contributions from:with contributions from:F. Bouttier, F. Duffourg, O. Nuissier, B.Vié, B. VincendonF. Bouttier, F. Duffourg, O. Nuissier, B.Vié, B. Vincendon

(CNRM-GAME)(CNRM-GAME)S. Davolio (CNR-ISAC), J. Delanoë (IPSL/LATMOS), R. Ferretti (Univ. S. Davolio (CNR-ISAC), J. Delanoë (IPSL/LATMOS), R. Ferretti (Univ. D’Aquilla), C. Flamant(IPSL/LATMOS), V. Homar (UIB), J.P. Pinty (LA)D’Aquilla), C. Flamant(IPSL/LATMOS), V. Homar (UIB), J.P. Pinty (LA)

WWOSC2014, Montréal, 16-21 August 2014

Introduction

HyMex is a 10-y program devoted to the water cycle in Mediterranean, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of hydrometeorological risks

Within the long-term observation period started in 2010, several special observation periods (SOP= research field campaigns) are performed for improving our knowledge about high-impact weather events in order to better understanding, modelling and forecasting them.

The first SOP series in Northwestern Mediterranean:

-Heavy precipitation event (HPE) and flash-flooding for SOP1 (5 Sept.-6 Nov. 2012)

-Regional winds, air-sea fluxes and ocean convection for SOP2 (1 Feb.-15 March 2013)

France

Spain

Italy

Mediterranean Sea

V. Ducrocq

On large scale and mesoscale environment: Nuissier, O., Joly, B., Joly, A., Ducrocq, V. and Arbogast, Ph., 2011 (QJRMS); Ricard, D., V. Ducrocq, L. Auger, 2012 (JAMC) On triggering mechanisms: Ducrocq, V., O. Nuissier, D. Ricard, C. Lebeaupin, T. Thouvenin, 2008 (QJRMS); Bresson, E., V. Ducrocq, O. Nuissier, D. Ricard, C. de Saint-Aubin, 2012 (QJRMS)On water vapour origin and transport: Duffourg, F. and Ducrocq, V., 2011 (NHESS); Duffourg, F., and V. Ducrocq, 2013 (ASL)

Heavy precipitationHeavy precipitationA multiscale phenomenomA multiscale phenomenom

SOP1 objectivesSOP1 objectives

25 oct. 2009

SOP1 aimed to obtain detailed information on four key components:

The distributed hydrological response of the Mediterranean watersheds

the microphysics and dynamics of precipitating systems leading to HPE

the air-sea exchanges and ocean mixed layer prior and during HPE

the upstream marine flows and their interaction with complex

terrain

A large field campaign over the whole Northwestern Mediterranean

Mobile or on-alert instrumented plaforms

(atmosphere, ocean, soils and rivers)

SOP1 experimental set-upSOP1 experimental set-up

~200 instruments deployed for the field campaign, including airborne and seaborne instruments, radars, lidars, wind profilers, boundary layer balloons, etc – (~ 250 flight hours with SAFIRE/F20 & ATR42, KIT/DO128, ~850 RS) ~300 scientists involved in the field campaign

Ducrocq et al, 2014 (BAMS)

Maximum of daily precipitation at each raingauge during SOP1 (5 Sep.-6 Nov. 2012)

Ducrocq et al, 2014 (BAMS)

SOP1 Intense Observation Periods (IOP)

20 days with at least one raingauge with more than 100mmm/24h 16 IOPs dedicated to Heavy precipitation

Flood in Spain13 fatalities

Tornado in Marseille, Nice airport closed

IOP13

IOP8

IOP16aFlood in France2 fatalities

IOP16b

@Fr

ance

3@

C. V

erge

iner

Squall Lines in ItalyIOP6

Ducrocq et al, 2014 (BAMS)

HyMeX SOP1 data exploitationHyMeX SOP1 data exploitation

HyMeX SOP1 data and more generally HyMeX observations provide the framework to:

Progress on the understanding of heavy precipitation events and on the hydrological processes during flash-floods.

Improve Convection-Permitting NWP, including physical (microphysics, turbulence) parameterizations, air-sea coupling, EPS and data assimilation systems.

Develop and evaluate the coupling of the new convection-permitting EPS with hydrological models for ensemble forecasting of flash-floods over the small-to-medium watersheds.

Evaluate and improve existing operational observation networks and associated products and of new observation systems and allow preparation for future satellite missions such the NASA GPM mission.

Evaluate coupled ocean-atmosphere-rivers regional climate modeling systems used in the joint HyMeX and WCRP/(MED-)CORDEX CMIP5 downscaling exercise over the Mediterranean domain.

Investigate the social and economical responses to extreme precipitation and associated hydrological events using among other approaches, an interdisciplinary post-flood methodology.

HyMeX SOP1 data exploitation HyMeX SOP1 data exploitation

HyMeX SOP1 data and more generally HyMeX observations provide the framework to:

Progress on the understanding of heavy precipitation events and on the hydrological processes during flash-floods.

Improve Convection-Permitting NWP, including physical (microphysics, turbulence) parameterizations, air-sea coupling, EPS and data assimilation systems.

Develop and evaluate the coupling of the new convection-permitting EPS with hydrological models for ensemble forecasting of flash-floods over the small-to-medium watersheds.

Evaluate and improve existing operational observation networks and associated products and of new observation systems and allow preparation for future satellite missions such the NASA GPM mission.

Evaluate coupled ocean-atmosphere-rivers regional climate modeling systems used in the joint HyMeX and WCRP/(MED-)CORDEX CMIP5 downscaling exercise over the Mediterranean domain.

Investigate the social and economical responses to extreme precipitation and associated hydrological events using among other approaches, an interdisciplinary post-flood methodology.

HyMeX SOP1 provides obs. to characterize the upstream flow over the sea where routine obs. are scaree.g. to investigate both the misrepresentation of Po Valley convection and over the sea by WRF (3km) evidenced over some IOPs.

E. Pichelli, R. Rotunno, R. Ferretti, 2014 (in preparation)

IOP6 – 24 Sept 2012

KIT/DO128aircraft

Low and mid-level specific humidity over the sea

23:50-03:00 UTC 12:00-15:00 UTC

Boundary layer pressurized balloon

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for understanding model deficiencesunderstanding model deficiences

Qv

(g/k

g)

12

13

14

Qv

(g/k

g)

11

1210

86

4

2

14

16

18

Obs.

WRF

MESO-NH –2.5km model

RASTA Radar reflectivities (dBZ)

time (h)

Composite radar reflectivities (dBZ) observed at 13:45 UTC and F20 trajectory

Radar reflectivities (dBZ) simulated at 2000m at 12:45 UTC and F20 trajectory

Stratiform part

Convective part

Images of hydrometeors

F. Duffourg, O. Nuissier, J. Delanoë, A. Schwarzenbock2014 (in preparation)

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for validating and improving model parameterizationsvalidating and improving model parameterizations

HyMeX SOP1 provides in-situ microphysical observations and radar onboard SAFIRE/F20, aerosols observations onboard SAFIRE/ATR42 in and near MCSe.g. in order to validate and improve microphysical parameterizations

IOP16a – 26 Oct 2012

SAFIRE/F20 Aircraft

MESO-NH –2.5km model

RASTA Radar reflectivities (dBZ)

time (h)

Composite radar reflectivities (dBZ) observed at 13:45 UTC and F20 trajectory

Radar reflectivities (dBZ) simulated at 2000m at 12:45 UTC and F20 trajectory

F. Duffourg, O. Nuissier, J. Delanoë, A. Schwarzenbock2014 (in preparation)

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for validating and improving model parameterizationsvalidating and improving model parameterizations

HyMeX SOP1 provides in-situ microphysical observations and radar onboard SAFIRE/F20, aerosols observations onboard SAFIRE/ATR42 in and near MCSe.g. in order to validate and improve microphysical parameterizations

SAFIRE/F20 Aircraft

Ice water content (g/m3)

12

Southeastern France, 12-h accumulated precipitation (mm), 2012/09/24, 12 UTC

Raingauge observationsDefault aerosol population

MACC aerosols as IC and BC

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for validating and improving model parameterizationsvalidating and improving model parameterizations

IOP6 – 24 Sept 2012

Validation of the LIMA 2-moment, mixed-phase microphysical scheme (Meso-NH)

Improved observation coverage from HyMeX SOP1

nb of obs per day per 1°x1°

routine 3h-precip obs at Meteo-France HyMeX SOP1 obs density

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for

convection-permitting EPS evaluationconvection-permitting EPS evaluation

eg evaluate the future Météo-France AROME EPS (2.5 km, operational in 2015)

Reliability of the AROME-2.5km ensemble for high precipitation (rr3>20mm) suffers less from sampling error if verified against HyMeX SOP1 obs (thanks to 4x more high-precip obs in HyMeX than in routine dataset)

HyMeX allows optimisation of EPS for high precip events

Reliability diagnosis usingroutine Météo-France obs

using HyMeX SOP1 obs

Use of HyMeX observations for Use of HyMeX observations for

convection-permitting EPS evaluationconvection-permitting EPS evaluation

Bouttier et al, 2014 (in preparation)

AROME EPS : perturbations of initial, lateral boundary conditions, surface, physics tendencies / 12 members, 1x/day during SOP1

25 oct. 26 oct. 27 oct. 28 oct. 25 oct. 26 oct. 27 oct. 28 oct.

MF AROME EPS ARPA-EMR COSMO_H2 EPS

Discharge from ISBA-TOP hydrological model for the Ardèche catchment (South France)

Obs.Using radar QPE

Q25%-Q75%

Mean

IOP16a

Cumulative hourly area average precipitation over the Gualentin catchment (SE Spain)

WRF EPS: Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF-EPS - 50 members

IOP8 Obs.

Probability-matched

Mean

Hydrological evaluation Hydrological evaluation of convection-permitting EPSof convection-permitting EPS

More about HyMeX studies at WWOSC2014:

Monday- SCI-PS137.03: AROME-WMED, a real-time mesoscale model designed for the HyMeX Special Observation Periods, N. Fourrié et al- SCI-PS144.02: Sensitivity study of a heavy precipitating event to the sea state using convection-permitting model simulations, O. Thévenot et alTuesday - SCI-PS155.03: Western Mediterranean Sea air-sea exchanges from the AROME-WMED model during the HyMeX campaign, R. Rainaud et al - SCI-PS180.03: Mediterranean moisture supply during an extreme precipitation event in the north-western Mediterranean, J. Campa- SCI-PS180.04: Model studies of heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean during the HyMeX campaign (2012), L. RöhnerWednesday- SCI-PS228.01: An ensemble study of HyMeX IOP6 and IOP7a, E. Richard et al - SCI-PS228.03: Amplification of high precipitation in the Western Mediterranean by Corsica island flow and convection, U. Corsmeier et al- SCI-PS218.04: Large-scale surface wind extremes in the Mediterranean, S.Raveh-Rubin et al- SCI-POW1173: Moisture transport between Atlantic and Mediterranean regions leading to extreme precipitation and flooding event, J.Campa et al- UAS-PS330.03: Flash flooding and the global environmental change perspective: Toward an integrated strategy for disaster reduction, I. Ruin et al

… and on www.hymex.org/publications

Other examples of HyMeX dataset useOther examples of HyMeX dataset use

The observations collected by more than 200 research instruments during SOP constitute an unprecedented dataset and unique relative to previous field experiments in the region as the atmosphere, ocean, river and soils were sampled together that are currently exploited in many on-going studies.

More than 350 datasets archived in the HyMeX database to support research on process understanding and model evaluation and improvement:

www.hymex.org/database

Measurements over the instrumented watersheds and social and hydrological post-event survey continue during the HyMeX Enhanced Observation Period (EOP) through the end of 2015 to capture additional flood events.

Conclusion

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention