Fishbanks Simulation Instructors' Guide.setup and Player Briefing

11-131 Rev. January 22, 2013

This guide was prepared by Professors John Sterman, the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MIT's System Dynamics Group, and Andrew King, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.

Copyright © 2011, John Sterman and Andrew King. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Fishbanks Simulation Instructors’ Guide: Setup and Player Briefing

John Sterman, Andrew King

Abstract

Fishbanks is a simulation of an open-access fishery in which players compete to maximize the economic value of their “fishing companies”. The simulation exposes participants to the Tragedy of the Commons, the dynamics of renewable resources, and the challenges of designing, implementing and enforcing policies for sustainable resource management. The current version is an interactive, web-based simulation, freely available at the MIT Sloan’s LearningEdge site, along with other interactive management flight simulators. The web-based version described here updates and extends the classic game designed by Dennis Meadows. In its various forms, the game has been played thousands of times around the world, with players ranging from elementary students to senior business and government officials. Here we cover how to set up and play the game. A companion teaching note provides material instructors can use to debrief the results. Fishbanks is a dynamic, multi-player game in which players seek to maximize their net worth in an open-access fishery. The simulation interface provides players with information about current competitive and resource conditions. During each round, players make two types of decisions: (1) they can change the size of their fleet by buying, selling, or ordering ships, and (2) they decide how to use their fleet by sending their ships to the deep sea fishery, the coastal fishery, or keeping them in the harbor. Players can also try to negotiate agreements to manage the fishery more sustainably and equitably, and the game allows administration of fishing quotas, permits, boat buyback programs, and other policies players may wish to implement.

http://www.sciencemag.org/site/feature/misc/webfeat/sotp/pdfs/162-3859-1243.pdf

http://www.sciencemag.org/site/feature/misc/webfeat/sotp/pdfs/162-3859-1243.pdf

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/simulations/fishbanks/Pages/fish-banks.aspx

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/simulations/Pages/System-Dynamics.aspx

FISHBANKS SIMULATION INSTRUCTORS’ GUIDE: SETUP AND PLAYER BRIEFING John Sterman, Andrew King

Rev. January 22, 2013 2

Fishbanks can be played with 1 to 10 teams (fishing companies) per “ocean”; 6-8 teams, with 2 to 4 people on each team (about 10 to 50 people in total), are best. To accommodate larger groups, multiple oceans can be played simultaneously. (We have run the simulation with 90 people in three oceans.) An “umpire” (e.g. the workshop leader) monitors and paces each game. The simulation keeps track of fish stocks, stock recruitment (growth in the stock), the catch per ship, profits and losses, the market value of ships, and other information. The game can be run in a workshop or classroom in a typical 80-minute class period. It also supports an asynchronous mode in which students make decisions any time during a specified interval such as a day over the course of a week. Instructors who register with LearningEdge will find additional teaching resources including a video teaching note demonstrating the game, a full teaching note with debriefing guide, and slide decks for briefing and debriefing.

Table of Contents

1. Key Lessons

2. Before You Run a Game

a. Game Mode and Group Size

b. Choosing Settings

c. Authorizing Users

3. Class Plan for a Workshop (Live) Session

a. Room Setup and Seating

b. Introduction and Instructions

c. Logging In and Simulation Orientation

d. Starting Play

e. Normal Play

f. Crisis

g. Resolution

h. Game Wrap

4. Appendix 1: Example configurations

5. Appendix 2: Administering and Managing Regulation as an Instructor

6. Appendix 3: Tips for Playing Asynchronously

7. References



Key Lessons

Fishbanks creates the opportunity for people to learn fundamental lessons about the sustainable management of renewable resources. These lessons include: Resource Dynamics: Renewable resource stocks are reduced as extractors harvest the resource or as a result of inadvertent so-called “side effects” of other economic activity (e.g., sewage dumped in a river, greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere). To be sustainable, resource extraction and degradation must be balanced by regeneration and renewal: fish can be taken no faster than they reproduce, trees can be cut no faster than new ones grow, carbon dioxide can be emitted into the atmosphere no faster than it is removed. Regeneration and renewal for many important resources, including fish and other fauna, forests and other flora, fresh water, and the climate, are not constant, but depend on the state of the resource. For biological resources such as fish and forests, the level of the resource is limited by the carrying capacity of the ecosystem that supports it. Prior to extraction by humans, the resource stock will be near the maximum level the ecosystem can support. As extraction rises, regeneration will tend to rise as each remaining organism has more food, space and other resources it needs to reproduce. The ecosystem compensates for extraction: the more you take, the more grow back. However, when the resource becomes sufficiently depleted, regeneration peaks and falls—at some point there are simply too few fish remaining for reproduction to offset extraction. Now the dynamics shift: the more you take, the fewer grow back. The smaller the remaining resource stock, the smaller the rate of regeneration, further lowering the stock in a vicious cycle that can rapidly lead to resource collapse. The Tragedy of the Commons: Historically, a “commons” was the common pasture on which any villager could graze their livestock. In contrast to private property, such “common pool” or “open access” resources can be used by anyone. If the resources were managed to maximize total profit or social welfare, extraction would be limited to no more than the maximum sustainable yield. However, common pool resources are subject to overexploitation: it is rational for each extractor to expand their take as long as it is profitable to do so. Combined with resource dynamics (see above), the result is often the destruction of the resource. The tragedy arises not merely because the resource is destroyed, but because the resource is destroyed as a consequence of each individual’s pursuit of self-interest: the profits from taking one more fish or cutting one more tree benefit the individual extractor today while the costs of reduced future harvest are borne by all. An individual who stops harvesting simply allows others to take a little more, with no change in the outcome, so it is not rational to reduce your own take. Misperceptions of Feedback: Research shows people do not understand the basic dynamics of resource accumulation, nor the feedback processes that control extraction and regeneration. Further, extractors and policymakers often have poor knowledge of the ecological relationships governing regeneration and resource levels. Stock levels, regeneration, and even harvest rates are often known imperfectly. There are long delays in estimating and reporting resource stocks, harvests and

www.sciencemag.org/site/feature/misc/webfeat/sotp/pdfs/162-3859-1243.pdf



regeneration. Thus, even if fisheries were fully privatized, thereby eliminating the incentives for overexploitation that create the Tragedy of the Commons, extractors will likely overharvest. Experiments show exactly this with simulated fisheries: participants operating a fully private fishery still overexpand their fleets, overharvest, and lose money (Moxnes 1998; see debriefing material in the companion teaching note). Further, there are delays in building up extraction capacity, and investments in capacity are often long-lived and largely irreversible, particularly because entire communities and economies grow up around the extractive activity. Political interests in continued extraction build up, causing opposition to and delays in the implementation of government policies or industry self-regulation to preserve the resource. Many open access resources involve extractors from different communities and nations, leading to additional delay while laws are debated and treaties negotiated. Misperceptions of the feedbacks governing resources, poor information, long delays and irreversible commitments often doom the resource and the communities dependent on it. By the time the community discovers that they are harvesting unsustainably, it is often too late. Successful Governance of the Commons Is Possible: While the barriers to successful management of common pool resources described above are formidable, it is possible for communities to self-regulate and govern their common resources sustainably. Political scientist Elinor Ostrom has documented many examples and analyzed the conditions for successful governance, winning the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2009 for her work (see e.g. Ostrom 2009, Ostrom et al. 2010, Ostrom and Hess 2007). Successful management of the commons has been documented on a variety of scales, from local communities such as individual fishing villages to the public provision of community services such as police, firefighting, education, and libraries, to global agreements such as the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which bans atmospheric atomic weapons tests, and the Montreal Protocol, which limits production of halocarbons that destroy stratospheric ozone. Governance can be initiated and maintained by informal relationships among community members, but often, and particularly for larger resource systems with more and more diverse actors, it requires institutionalizing agreements, monitoring methods, enforcement mechanisms and other policies in formal laws and regulations (at local, state/provincial, national or international levels). Such agreements enable communities to act collectively to improve societal welfare.

Before You Run a Game

Game Mode and Group Size

Fishbanks is an interactive, multi-player web-based management flight simulator. It is available free of charge via MIT Sloan’s LearningEdge site, along with other interactive management flight simulators. The web-based version described here updates and extends the classic game designed by Dennis Meadows. The classic game remains highly effective and is particularly useful for smaller groups and situations where Internet access is limited. In its various forms, the game has been played thousands of times around the world, with players ranging from elementary students to senior business and government officials.






The web-based version of Fishbanks can be used in two modes: “workshop” mode and “asynchronous” mode. In workshop mode, a facilitator or instructor conducts the game live, for example, in a class at a school or university, in an executive education course, or for a policy briefing,. Sessions can be conducted in a typical class period of about 80 minutes (with subsequent debriefing). In asynchronous mode, the game is played out over an extended period of time such as several days. Participants are given a fixed period, such as a day, to make their decisions, which they can enter at any time prior to the deadline. The facilitator monitors activity and umpires the game (with debriefing in a subsequent session or online). Both modes work well. Advantages of workshop mode include high interpersonal engagement, excitement, and rich opportunities to draw out lessons around personal leadership styles, as well as the ability to conduct the game in a short period of time. Advantages of asynchronous mode include the chance for participants to design and negotiate more complex agreements, including realistic policies such as quotas and permits, and to learn about and practice their skills in bilateral and multiparty negotiations with less time pressure. In either mode, participants don’t have to be in the same room; they can be located anywhere in the world as long as they have Internet access. The software supports a chat feature that allows participants to send messages to all other participants or to specific teams, so that physical co-location is not required. Fishbanks is played in teams, with each team representing a fishing company, operating in a particular ocean and competing against others in their ocean. The game can be played with one individual per team, though we strongly recommend teams of 2-4 individuals to enhance learning and engagement. Each ocean can support from 1 to 10 teams. The game runs best when there are enough teams to make the competition intense but not so many that cooperation is impossible. We find 6-8 teams to be a good number to balance competition with opportunities to cooperate. The one-team-per-ocean mode is useful to illustrate the impact of privatization and help people learn about the dynamics of renewable resources. If time permits, one can run the game as an open access fishery with multiple teams in each ocean, then run it again (or give the participants an assignment to run it again) with one team per ocean to learn about privatization. With 6-8 teams of roughly 2-4 people each the game can accommodate groups of about 12 to 50 people. For larger groups, the game supports simultaneous multi-ocean play. We have run the game in workshop mode with a total of over 90 people playing in three oceans. Larger groups with more oceans are also feasible.



Choosing Settings

Before you facilitate a session, you must register as an administrator to gain access to the instructor resources. Before your session, you should set the initial conditions including the number of oceans and teams per ocean, and biological and economic parameters governing the simulated fishery. You do so by creating a “class” with a set of parameters you select and save. To create a class, access Fishbanks through mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/simulations/Pages/System-Dynamics.aspx. Click on the Fishbanks Simulation icon, which will take you to the page you see below. Select Set up a new class. You will be asked to log in, using the user name and password you selected when you registered with LearningEdge. After logging in, you’ll be asked to choose a class code and an optional password. Select a class code, for example, MITFB1109, (MIT Fishbanks, September 2011), and write it down (e.g., email it to yourself). Then click Submit.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/Pages/Request-Account.aspx




The screen will show that you are logged in as an administrator for the class name you’ve selected. There are four main tabs: Settings, where you select the number of oceans, teams per ocean, and choose parameters for the fishery; Users, where you create users for each ocean; Results, where you will access the results of the games; and Monitor, where you will be able to see what is happening in and control the game as it is played. When first setting up a class, select the Settings tab. You will see six buttons (Global Settings, General, Financials, Fish, Catch, and Net Recruitment), each displaying a different set of parameters. Select Global Settings. Here you choose the game mode and the number of teams per ocean. There are three game modes: Manual (untimed), Automatic, and Timed. In manual mode, the umpire (you or your assistants) manually advances the game through each round. Manual timing is best in workshop mode where you, as facilitator, will sense from the group, and the time remaining, how long to allow for each round. Automatic mode is needed when people play as individuals and there is no umpire; in this mode, the game advances to the next round as soon as the players enter their decisions. The Timed option is best when running the game in asynchronous mode; here the game advances to the next round after a user-specified interval (though the umpire can always override the default). After selecting the game mode, choose the number of teams per ocean for your class. All oceans in each class will have the same number of teams. BE SURE to Apply Settings before moving to the next settings tab. Now, select the General settings tab. The default values are shown below.



Initial Ships: The initial total number of ships in each ocean is the product of the number of teams per ocean and the initial number of ships per team. It’s important to start the game with the total initial fleet well below the maximum sustainable fleet size. With the default parameters, the maximum sustainable fleet size is about 44 ships. With three ships per team and 7 teams, the initial fleet will be 21 ships, less than half the maximum sustainable level. If you have more teams, want a larger initial fleet size, or want the game to play out longer before the participants have a chance to build their fleets beyond the sustainable level, you should increase the maximum and initial fish stocks (on the Fish tab). Adding 400 fish to the maximum deep ocean stock (and 200 to the coastal stock) for every team above 8 is a reasonable rule. Ship Market Value and Costs: The market value of ships will vary with the bids, offers and trading prices the players choose during the auction phase of each round. The initial market value is set to the cost of a new ship. The minimum market value is set to $1. During the Auction phase of each round, players can offer ships at auction, setting a reserve price, and/or bid on ships others offer at auction. Under normal conditions, ship market value adjusts to the average price at which ships are auctioned during the game. During the first few rounds, auction activity is typically high and ship market values often rise. Later, however, if the teams deplete their fish stocks, fishing will become unprofitable. Auction prices will fall, and the reported market value will also drop. Soon, however, the players typically stop bothering to offer ships at auction, knowing that no one will bid for them at any price. In this situation, the market value of ships has clearly fallen, but there is no new information from transactions to indicate the market value of ships. In the default case, if there are no auctions for several rounds, the market value of ships gradually adjusts to the net present value of a ship, given expected catch and operating costs. This feature ensures that market values are appropriate even if there is no auction activity. For example, when fish are abundant and fishing is profitable, the NPV of a ship is high and the market value of ships will rise even if there is no auction activity because, for example, everyone wants to buy and no one wants to sell. In depleted fisheries, the NPV of a ship can easily become negative, and the market value of ships will fall, even if there is no auction activity because everyone wants to sell and no one wants to buy. Checking the box to Set Ship Market Value to Last Reserve Price overrides the determination of market value by NPV, setting the market value to the last posted reservation price. This option ensures that market value is determined solely by the players’ decisions, but may result in inflated market values after fish stocks are depleted, because players often continue to set reserve prices that are far too high. You can initiate a bank auction to generate information on market values, but this takes time and adds to the fleet at a time when there are likely too many ships. We recommend using the default, particularly in workshop mode. The default increment for bids is $25.



Maximum Ship Orders: Every round, each team has the option of ordering new ships from the shipyard, at a cost of $300/ship (in the default). The default rule is that each team can order at most half their current fleet, rounded up to the next integer. Thus with three ships in round 1, a team can order as many as 2 new ships. Alternatively, you can set a fixed maximum order. We recommend the default as it generates gradual exponential growth in the fleet, while a large maximum order limit can lead to individual teams placing very large orders and rapidly pushing the total fleet above the maximum sustainable level. In this situation players tend to blame the team that placed the single, large order for the failure of their fishery rather than seeing how the pursuit of self-interest by all leads to the collapse. Save any changes you make. Now, select the Financials tab. The default values are shown below.

Initial Cash and Interest Rates: Each team begins the game with a specified amount of cash per ship. With the default value of $200/ship and initial fleet size of 3 ships/team, each team begins with $600. If they maintain a positive bank balance, they will earn interest at the Interest Rate on Positive Bank Balance. As explained in the briefing slides, players can finance all their cash needs—there is never a limit on how much they can spend based on their cash balance. However, if their cash balance becomes negative they must borrow from the bank, paying the Interest Rate on Negative Bank Balances. Facilitators can adjust these rates to reflect the interest rate environment at the time and place of play. The cost of borrowing should exceed the return on savings. Operating Costs: Players must allocate their ships among three locations: ships can be sent to the deep sea fishery, the coastal fishery, or kept in the harbor. The default operating costs are $250, $150, and $50/ship/year, respectively. Combined with the default price of fish and catch per ship, fishing will initially be most profitable in the deep sea and slightly less profitable in the coastal fishery. Keeping a ship in the harbor always loses money. Save any changes you make.



Now, select the Fish tab. The default values are shown below. Fish Price: The price of fish is constant. The default value, $20/fish, in combination with the other parameters (operating costs and catch per ship) yields good profits when fish are abundant, and losses when fish stocks are significantly depleted. Initial and Maximum Fish Stocks: The default values for maximum and initial fish stocks are set so that the deep sea fishery supports twice the stock of the coastal fishery. The initial stocks are less than the maximum because the game starts with a nonzero initial fleet. The initial values are roughly consistent with the equilibrium fish stocks resulting from even allocation of the initial fleet between the coastal and deep fisheries. Of course, fish stocks will change as the players change the allocation of their fleets, and as they acquire new ships. Save any changes you make. Now, select the Catch tab. The default values are shown below. !



Catch per Ship: Catch per ship varies with the density of fish in each fishery, as shown by the Effect of Fish Density on Catch per Ship. When fish are abundant, each ship easily fills its hold; catch reaches the maximum determined by ship capacity and the number of trips each can make each year. The default is higher for the deep sea than for the coastal fishery. The relationship between density and catch per ship is shown in the graph below. Users may select the default, a low technology option, a high technology option, or specify their own relationship. In all cases, catch per ship must be zero when fish density is zero (no fish, no catch), and one when fish density is at its maximum.

Default: catch per ship is constant at the maximum until fish density falls to 0.5, then linear. The default represents a modern commercial fishery with the ability to fish in nearly all conditions and locations and good navigation aids, fish location technology, and modern gear.

Low Technology: Catch per ship falls even for small reductions in fish density. The low technology situation represents the capabilities of traditional fishing communities before the advent of modern factory fleets, aids to navigation and fish location technology such as radio, radar, GPS, sonar, spotter aircraft, etc., and modern gear (bottom trawls, purse seines, long lines, etc.). These conditions still characterize the methods used by many indigenous peoples and fishers in developing nations. Note that catch per ship is very low for densities below 0.5: the fish are able to hide in refugia where they cannot be located or taken by the gear in use.

High Technology: Represents an even more effective set of technologies than the default case. Here, factory fleets, superior aids to navigation and fish location technology such as radio, radar, GPS, sonar, spotter aircraft, etc., and high-tech gear (e.g., bottom trawls, purse seines, long lines, etc.) allow catch per ship to remain near the maximum even when fish stocks are significantly reduced. The fish have no refugia where they are out of reach.



When choosing the low or high technology options you may leave the maximum catch per ship at the defaults, or change it (typically, lowering the maximum for the low technology and raising it for the high technology cases, respectively). When lowering the maximum catch per ship values, be sure to choose values that still allow fishing to be profitable when fish densities are close to one. (Higher values will always be profitable for high fish densities and unprofitable at zero; the higher the maximum catch per ship the closer to zero fish density must fall before fishing becomes unprofitable.) The default relationship provides good results. Counter to the intuition of many players, the high technology option actually promotes faster and more complete destruction of the fishery, as fishing remains profitable for even lower fish densities, and fish stocks are seriously depleted before players receive any signal from declining catch per ship or profit that there is a problem. The low technology option slows the decline of the fishery and makes it easier to reach sustainable agreements to manage the commons (because the incentive to defect from the cooperative agreement to limit the catch is smaller). Weather Variations: Natural fluctuations in ecosystem conditions can cause actual catch per ship to vary year to year. These variations are labeled “weather” but include any source of variability that may affect the catch, including natural fluctuations in fish abundance or migration patterns, diseases, etc. The random variation is drawn from a uniform distribution. Each year’s weather is independent of prior time periods. The impact of weather on catch per ship each period is the same in both the coastal and deep sea fisheries, and, if you have multiple oceans, is the same in each ocean. The Maximum Impact of Weather on Catch is 0.20 in the default case, meaning catch per ship will vary by a maximum of ±20% around what it otherwise would be. Save any changes you make. Now, select the Net Recruitment tab. The default values are shown below.

!



Net Recruitment is the net increase in the fish stocks. As shown below, net recruitment has an inverted U shape: When fish density is zero, net recruitment is zero: no fish, no births. When fish stocks are at the carrying capacity of their ecosystem, births are just balanced by natural mortality and predation, so net recruitment is also zero. The shape of the relationship is the same for the coastal and deep sea fisheries. The default values set the maximum higher in the deep sea compared to the coastal fishery. Users have a choice of two shapes for the relationship.

Default: Net recruitment reaches its maximum at a density of 0.6, and falls away quickly for lower densities. This shape corresponds to a situation in which, for example, the fish gather in schools. In such situations, common for many species, schooling promotes reproductive success through high density and lowers the risk of predation. Such behavior is relatively common, not only among fish, but also among birds, including sea birds such as puffins and penguins, and the now-extinct passenger pigeon, and mammals including seals, some whales, and some primates. For such species, births fall and predation risk increases dramatically when density falls, lowering net recruitment.

The logistic curve is widely used because it facilitates analytic solutions to simple fishery models such as the Gordon-Schaefer model (see the appendix of the teaching note/debriefing guide). Note that when the user selects the logistic option for net recruitment, the model uses the analytic expression at right, not the piecewise linear relationship shown in the graph above.

Logistic: Net recruitment is given by the logistic (Verhulst) model, in which fractional net recruitment declines linearly as density falls (see the full derivation in the debriefing guide). Formally, Net Recruitment (fish/year) = rS, where r is fractional net recruitment and S is the fish stock. When r is linear in density,

r = rmax(1 – S/Smax),

where rmax is the maximum net recruitment rate and Smax is the maximum fish stock (fish density is S/Smax). Then

Net Recruitment = rmax(1 – S/Smax)S.

Thus Net Recruitment is quadratic (an inverted parabola) in density. It is easily shown that maximum net recruitment occurs at S = Smax/2.



Maximum Sustainable Yield and Fleet Size The maximum sustainable fleet size is given by

where MSY is the maximum sustainable yield and q is catch per ship. The MSY is given by maximum net recruitment. As shown in the debriefing guide, the Maximum Economic Yield, the catch that maximizes social welfare (total fishery profits), is always lower than the MSY and occurs at a higher fish density than the MSY. Catch per ship varies with fish density as shown on page 11, but assuming catch per ship near the MSY is at its maximum (true for the default and high technology cases, with either the default or logistic net recruitment function), the default parameters give

for a total maximum sustainable fleet size of about 44 ships.

FMSY = MSY/q

FMSY ! MSY/qmax =(330 fish/year)/(15 fish/ship/year) = 22 ships for the Coastal Fishery

(550 fish/year)/(25 fish/ship/year) = 22 ships for the Deep Sea Fishery

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Authorizing Users

Now you need to authorize users so they can log in and access the class with the settings you have just chosen. Click on the Users tab at the top of the administrator page.

You can enter the user information into the window provided (see above) or you can use the Excel template provided by the simulation, which is far more convenient (see below). The following example creates a game with one ocean and three teams.

The email addresses need not be real, but they must be in standard email format: [email protected]. The First and Last Name Fields can be the actual first and last names of the team captain for each team. Alternatively, as in the example on page 17, the First Name field can be used to identify the ocean in



which the player will operate, and the Last Name field can be used to identify the team number. This is convenient for Workshop Mode in which players are not preassigned to teams. (The Ocean and Team fields are optional.) In this example, the password, which corresponds to team numbers, is made very simple to facilitate login by the players. Note: only one computer per team should be logged in to the game. To enter the player information, copy the spreadsheet (without the header row) and paste it into the field in the Upload User List screen. After clicking on Load User Information you should receive a screen like the one below confirming that the players have been loaded. In the example here, you should change the Ocean Name from “Ocean 1” to “Atlantic” to be consistent with the ocean name you have chosen.

A more realistic example, shown on page 17, sets up users for a class to be run in workshop mode with three oceans—Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian—each with seven teams. Because this game was designed to be run live in workshop mode, the email addresses are fictitious and selected to make login as simple as possible.



The example below shows a section of a spreadsheet for a session to be run in asynchronous mode. Here the emails are real, so that the facilitator can communicate with the teams (the actual names have been redacted in the figure). Some of the teams selected their own names in advance; the facilitator entered these names when setting up the class.

Once you’ve chosen your settings and uploaded the users for each team and ocean you are ready to play.

!

Emails redacted



Class Plan for a Workshop (Live) Session

The majority of sessions are run in one session (workshop mode). Introducing and playing the game usually takes about 60-90 minutes. Debriefing the game can take another 30-90 minutes. As a result, the game can be played in a compressed form in a single class, spread over two classes with the debriefing session in the second class, or as part of a double class session. The following description provides timings for a game to be played in one 90-minute class.

Room Setup and Seating

A flat room is best, though we have run the game in a traditional case-style classroom with tiered seating. In a flat room, provide one small table (round or rectangular) and chairs for each team, with one computer per team. Leave some room in the middle of the room where teams can gather to negotiate. If you have multiple oceans running simultaneously, arrange the tables so that teams from each ocean are near one another. Remember that each ocean is completely independent of the others; there is no transfer of funds, ships or fish across oceans. Place tent cards identifying the ocean and team number (e.g., “Atlantic 1”) on each table so you and the players can see which teams and oceans are which. You can preassign players to teams or let people sit wherever they wish. To speed the login process we hand out a sheet of paper to each team, at the appropriate point in the briefing, with the team name, username and password. For example, the team identified as [email protected] in the example spreadsheet on page 17 would receive a sheet with the following information: Team Name Login ID Password Atlantic 1 atl1 a1 The instructor should make sure that every team has one, and only one, working computer that is properly logged in. Only one computer from each team should be logged in at a time. Sometimes computers crash (battery problems, etc.), so it is useful to have some backup machines available. Once people are settled with their teams, you can introduce the game and begin play.

Introduction and Instructions (10 Minutes)

Over the years, a set of introductory slides has evolved from the inputs of Dennis Meadows, John Sterman, and Andrew King. These slides are available online for instructors. The slides use the default settings; you should customize the settings to meet your needs. Walking through these slides usually takes about 10 minutes.











http://forio.com/simulate/mit/fishbanks/simulation/login.html





Here are common questions that come up during the briefing:

Question Answer

What is the goal? How do we win?

You goal is to maximize the value of your assets at the end of the game. Remember, assets are the sum of your bank balance and the current market value of your fleet.

How long will we play? How many years? I don’t know how many years we will play.

Can we go into debt to buy ships?

Yes, but you will pay interest on the loan. The banks is always willing to lend you whatever you need to finance your ship purchases and operating expenses.

Are all of the ships identical? Yes. New ships, old ships, and ships from different teams are all identical.

Do ships ever sink? What if the weather is bad? Do ships wear out and need to be replaced?

Ships never sink, no matter the weather. The lifetime of ships is much longer than the likely length of the game. No replacement is needed.

When we buy a boat at auction or from another team, when can we use it?

Right away, in that year.

Why would we ever buy ships at auction or pay more than $300 per ship if we can order them?

You pay for ships you order this year but you don’t get them until next year. If you buy a ship at auction you can fish with it this year and



earn an additional year of profit. Also, the number of ships you can order each year is limited by your current fleet size. Having more ships now allows you to order more, if you desire.

How long do fish take to mature before they can be caught or reproduce?

One year. Fish born this year can reproduce and be caught next year.

Do fish migrate between the deep sea and the coast?

No. The fish populations are separate and do not move between fisheries.

Does catch per ship fall if everyone fishes in the same area this year?

No. Catch per ship this year depends only on fish density and weather. It will be the same this year whether 1 or 10 or 100 ships fish there. Next year the catch may differ, based on the density of fish and weather next year.

What is the stock level now?

As seen in slide 12, the fleet has been growing and the catch has been growing proportionately. There is no evidence of overfishing, and scientists are highly confident fish stocks are near their maximum levels.

What is the maximum sustainable yield?

Estimates vary widely, and are contentious. [Depending on how much information you want to provide, you can show slide 18 with rough estimates of the net recruitment function; but be sure to emphasize that no one knows, that there is great uncertainty, and that estimates are politically contentious, with scientists typically estimating lower maximum sustainable yields than the fishers.]

Can we talk and negotiate with other teams? Of course. You can make any agreements you wish.

At this point, players are usually excited to get going and annoyed by further questions. It’s fine to begin the game with a few players still a bit confused; people rapidly learn how the game works.



Logging In and Simulation Orientation (5 minutes)

At slide 14, it’s time for people to log in. People can access the game directly at bit.ly/fishbanks or via the LearningEdge site, mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/simulations/fishbanks/Pages/fish-banks.aspx. The players then login with the ID and password you provide to them. Note that players do not need to enter the class name to log in. If a particular user has been authorized to play in more than one class, that user will receive a dialog box asking them to select the appropriate class from a popup menu listing all the classes that user is authorized to play in. As the facilitator, you should be logged in to the class as an administrator and be ready to project your screen when appropriate (for example, to give information on game results to date). However, most of the time you should not display your screen on the projector. To orient people to the interface, you should quickly explain what they are seeing on their screen. The instructor’s video provided on the Fishbanks site, mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge/simulations/fishbanks/Pages/fish-banks.aspx, illustrates how to explain the screens and features to the players; you can ask them to view it in advance although in our experience it is not necessary. Below we show some slides illustrating how the player interface works. However, we strongly recommend that you avoid slides. Instead, walk the players through the interface while they look at their own screens. Alternatively, you can open a new browser, log in as an individual, and project the interface on the screen, so that you can click on the various tabs and show the players how to navigate around the simulation. Make sure you use a different browser (not just a separate window or tab) to do so. For example, if you are logged in as an administrator using Firefox, you should log in as an individual using Internet Explorer, Chrome, or Safari to show them the views they see as players.

http://forio.com/simulate/mit/fishbanks/simulation/login.html










Starting Play (5-10 Minutes)

Each round consists of an auction phase and an allocation phase. In the auction phase players can offer ships for sale at auction and/or bid on ships others are offering. It is fun and useful to start play by auctioning off three ships, offered by the bank. Auctioning three ships at the start of the first year accomplishes several important goals: 1) it demonstrates to the players how the auction process works; 2) it motivates players to think about the economics of the fishery; 3) it gives them a sense of what others are thinking and increases the excitement; 4) it immediately updates the asset value of the ships, typically to a higher level; and, 5) the auction breaks the initial symmetry in which all teams start with the same number of ships. Doing so is useful because, at the start of the game, fishing is profitable, so the team with the largest fleet will earn the most and have the highest total asset value. The team that wins the initial auction will usually have the highest asset value (unless they dramatically overbid). Key points for auctions:

1. Ships offered at auction are always offered as a single lot: if you win the auction, you are buying all the ships the seller is offering.

2. Bids and offers in all auctions are per ship. Thus, if three ships are offered at auction and

the winning bid is $700 per ship, the winning team pays $2,100 for the lot of three ships. 3. In each auction the seller sets a reserve price. The initial bid must be the reserve price or

higher. 4. Bids must be at least $25 higher (default value) than the current high bid. Your screen will

display the current high bid. 5. For the initial auction, the bank offers three ships (they came from a team that went bankrupt

and are being sold at auction by the bank). For this first round, do not offer your own ships at auction. Starting next year you can offer as many ships as you like at auction.

6. If there are multiple oceans: the bank is offering three ships at auction in each ocean. Each

auction is separate. The winning bids may differ across oceans. Remember, the oceans are separate, with no exchange of money, ships, or fish across oceans.

The game allows the facilitator to run a bank auction two ways: online, so that players will see the bids on their screens, or as an oral outcry auction. Running the auction orally is exciting; running it through the software demonstrates how the auction process works for the players and speeds play later. We recommend running the auction through the software; in our experience these auctions are



quite exciting for the players and, in workshop mode, lead to a lot of shouting and comments, including through the game chat channel. The game Monitor page shows the current status of the game. In the auction phase, you see the following:



Online auctions are administered through the Bank Auction function at the bottom of the Monitor page. (The instructor video demonstrates how to run an online auction.) Simply enter the number of ships offered and the reserve price. Players will see the auction under the “Buy” section on the left side of their screens. Once the auction is enabled, the Add Auction button changes to Withdraw. The umpire can withdraw the auction before advancing the phase and no team will be awarded the ships. If the auction goes through, the winning team receives the ships and the cost of their winning bid is debited from their bank account when the auction phase ends.

To run a voice auction, say: I have three ships for sale at auction, offered by the bank. Let’s start the bidding at $X per ship. Who will bid X? Continue until you knock down the winning bid. You must then allocate the ships to the winning team by using the Manual Auctions column on the monitor page. Enter the number of ships won at auction and the price per ship of the winning auction into the field for the winning team. By clicking Sell, the ships are sent to the team and the cost is debited from their bank balance. If a mistake is made, the ships can be retrieved and the money removed by putting in a negative number of ships into the Sell tab. To return the payment to the winning team, the price should remain positive.



Note: you can use the Manual Auction feature with negative ships to buy ships back from players (see below). Whether you run the auction orally or through the software, start the bidding at the cost of ordering a new ship (default: $300 per ship). Point out that ships you win at auction can be used immediately, while ships you order now will not arrive until next year. Since fishing is quite profitable, ships are clearly worth more than $300. In fact, initially you can earn about $250 per ship in profit from fishing in the deep sea, nearly paying off the entire costs of a new ship in one year. More subtly, (with the default rule limiting ship orders to half the current fleet), winning the auction gives you the flexibility to grow your fleet should you decide to do so. With three ships, the most you can order this year is two (half of three, rounded up). But if you win the auction, you’ll have six ships, and you can order three if you desire. The option to build your fleet has value. Typically, bidding will usually proceed to up to approximately $500 or more. The initial auction should only take a few minutes. Use the Monitor tab of the administrator view to see how the bids are changing. When you sense that the price is not rising much anymore, announce “One minute left in the auction. Get your final bids in now.” Then, with about 10 seconds left, call out “10 seconds. The high bid is now $x/ship from team y. Going, Going, Gone!” and click on End Auction. Confirm and the game will move to the allocation phase. Now explain how the allocation phase works. Players must (1) allocate their current fleet to the deep sea, the coastal fishery, or the harbor, and (2) decide how many ships to order. The first round of the game will take time as players familiarize themselves with the interface and worry about strategy. Players may even try to use excel to build conceptual models of the game. Since the game picks up pace later, allowing some time for deliberation causes no problems. You can see which teams have entered their decisions on the Monitor tab.



When most players have entered their decisions and/or after several minutes, announce “One minute left. Make your allocation decisions and decide how many ships to order.” With ten seconds to go, announce “10 seconds. Make and enter your decisions” then click Advance to Next Year, and confirm that decision. Once you have advanced the game, the players receive information about their performance in the last year. There is no way to go back once the year has been advanced. A confirmation check prevents the accidental advance.



Normal Play (20 Minutes)

The players will now be in the auction phase for year 2. You should project a quick summary of the results from year 1 for all to see. Players are usually interested in:

1) the current asset values of teams; 2) the number of ships held by each team; and, 3) total allocations among the fisheries.

Asset values can be shown by projecting the Assets page on the Results tab onto a screen in the classroom. Results can be shown either in a table or graph.

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Next, show the number of ships held by each team using the Fleet page. Then show where the teams in each ocean sent their ships using the Ship Allocation page.

Do NOT show fish stocks or recruitment—real fishers do not know these data. After showing the data, encourage players to buy and sell ships. You may need to announce “One minute left….” to bring the auction phase to a close, and then do the same after a few minutes to end the allocation phase. The pace of play will speed up as players gain familiarity with the interface, rules, and their situation. Instructors can run additional bank auctions any time they wish. However, it is usually best to limit the bank auction to the first year. Bank auctions increase the total size of the fleet, while auctions among teams only shift ownership, leaving the total fleet constant. During the debriefing discussion, it is best to show that the fleet overshot the sustainable level (if it did) as a result of their decisions, not because the instructor added ships to the fishery via bank auctions. Typically, there will be auction activity in the first few years as some teams seek to build their fleets while others seek to realize profits by ordering new ships and then selling them. The market value of ships will typically rise. If there is no auction activity, you can offer one ship as a way of updating the market value of ships, but in our experience this is not usually needed (recall that the default setting automatically adjusts the market value of ships to the net present value of a ship if there is no auction activity for several years). When time is limited (e.g., in workshop mode) you may need to move the game along by announcing “one [or two, or…] minutes left” in each phase. In workshop mode you will be able to judge from the activity of the group whether they are ready to move on or need more time as they try to negotiate agreements. You should allow some time for negotiation, but time pressure is a feature of reality:

!



while scientists study the fishery and politicians negotiate, fishing continues. Usually, a few cries of “Let’s go fishing” are sufficient to move the game along.

Crisis (15 Minutes)

Initially, fishing is quite profitable, with profits of about $250/ship/year in the deep fishery and about $150/ship/year in the coastal fishery. Most players will put most or all of their ships in the deep sea fishery, and many will also order new ships. The fish stock in the deep sea will decline. Eventually, catch per ship in the deep sea fishery will start to fall, and then even become negative as catch per ship falls enough for operating costs to exceed revenue. It becomes more profitable to shift to the coastal fishery. The timing of this crisis depends on the game settings and the behavior of the players, but it is typically in years 5-7. In some cases, the instructor will hear an audible gasp as players learn that their ships are catching less than they had expected. When the deep sea becomes unprofitable, some players may try to negotiate catch limits, quotas, or other forms of self-regulation. One option is to let them react as they wish to the situation: they may recognize the problem and negotiate, or they may not. Either way their choices will stimulate good discussion in the debriefing: if they seek to negotiate, why only after there was a crisis? If they do not, why did they ignore the signs of trouble? Alternatively, you may want to point out the gravity of the situation to motivate them to seek an agreement to preserve the fishery. You may add information about the state of the fish stocks by providing a “NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Bulletin” which reports the approximate state of the fishery. For example,

NOAA scientists at the National Marine Fisheries Service reported today that fish stocks in the deep sea fishery are severely depleted as the result of excessive fishing activity there. They report that fishing activity in the deep sea is far greater than natural reproduction. The scientists recommend substantial reductions in the catch and fishing effort in the deep sea to give fish stocks a chance to recover. The report also finds [if it is true in the simulation] that fish stocks in the coastal fishery are healthier.

During the crisis, the discussion among the players intensifies. Watch carefully to gauge what is happening. In some cases, players don’t want to slow play because they want those who have made poor decisions to suffer or they want to see how their own strategy will play out. In other cases, players may try to negotiate agreements (often spontaneously) and it can be helpful to slow down to give them a chance to do so. In some cases, players may try to write regulations or seek support from the instructor for enforcement (see the appendix in the debriefing guide). After a few minutes, you should again get the group going. Call out encouragements to go fishing, or announce “x minutes left before the end of this phase.” Often the players will support this because those not willing to abide by an agreement will push to have the game continued.



In rare cases players do create effective proposals for self or government regulation. We discuss options for administering such regulation in Appendix 2.

Resolution (15 Minutes)

Assuming that no effective regulation has been created, the teams will seek some way of maintaining their assets. The first response will be to allocate ships to the coastal fishery. However, by then the total fleet has often grown far larger than the maximum sustainable level. The stock of fish in the coast then falls very quickly, and fishing will become unprofitable everywhere. Players may then choose to put some ships in the harbor, or switch back and forth between the coast and deep ocean fisheries in response to small changes in catch per ship and thus profit across the deep and coastal fisheries. When, as is common, the total fleet is far higher than the sustainable level, the profit maximizing, but painful, choice will be to keep the fleet in the harbor where losses will “only” be $50/ship/year. At this point the instructor may choose to buy back ships using the manual auction feature and entering a negative number of ships. Whether you allow buybacks is entirely up to you, as is the price at which you offer to buy ships. You can disallow buybacks, wait to see whether players spontaneously ask you about the possibility of a bank buyback, or announce that it is a possibility. Generally, we recommend against buybacks. In real fisheries, when an individual fisher sells their ship, some other fisher buys it, so the total fleet in that fishery does not shrink. The total fleet shrinks only if ships are scrapped or taken to some other fishery entirely. Many real fishers have limited options to make a living besides fishing, so even if the fleet could be reduced, there is substantial inertia in a community dependent on fishing to keep the fishery and fleet going. If you do allow buybacks, offer $1/ship no matter what the current market value of ships may be (after the collapse of the New England cod fishery fishing vessels were actually sold at $1). By the time teams want to sell you their ships, it is likely that fishing has already become unprofitable and that the market value of ships has collapsed. The bank has a lot of market power, while the fishers are in a state of distress. Some teams may not wish to sell their ships at such a loss, and there may be disagreements over how to allocate such sales among the teams. If the negotiation over that issue is not resolved quickly, withdraw your offer to buy and move to the next year. If the players do not reach an effective agreement, the fish stocks will soon be severely depleted or even wiped out. Fishing will be unprofitable, most ships will be layed up in the harbor, ship market values will have dropped substantially, and many players will have a negative net worth. At this point, you should end the game.

Game Wrap (5-10 Minutes)

A full debriefing requires 90 minutes or longer, though shorter formats are possible. The Fishbanks Simulation Instructors’ Guide and Teaching Note provides a full description of the lessons of the game you can use to craft a debriefing suitable for your audience, and debriefing slides. In workshop



mode, the debriefing is best done immediately after the game and a short break. In many school and university settings, the game will consume a full class session, and debriefing will be in the next class. Even so, at the end of game play, take a few minutes to quickly go over the results, using the administrator view and Results tab to show what happened to the fleet, fish stocks, ship market value, and player asset values.



Appendix 1 Example Configurations

Configuration 1. The John Sterman

The goal of this configuration is make the dynamics of the system as accurate and vivid as possible. The outcome of this version is a more vital discussion of the dynamic properties of the system and the difficulty of managing it – either individually or collectively. This version of the simulation is usually played in workshop mode.

Global 7 teams per ocean. Three ships per team.

General All default

Financials All default

Fish All default

Catch All default, or high technology catch per ship function

Net recruitment All default

Regulation None to start; players can self-regulate. Facilitator willing to impose regulation if (enough) players agree.

Configuration 2. The Andrew King

The goal of this configuration is to make the system as close to an idealized and analyzable system as possible by using the logistic function for net recruitment. Another goal is to allow more time for the creation of an effective self-regulation. This version of the class is usually played out asynchronously over a week or so. One approach is to have a “fishing year” begin each class or to play the game over the course of a week with a decision due each evening. The culminating class can then be an opportunity for a few more years of play and a summarizing discussion.

Global 7 teams per ocean. Three ships per team.

General All default

Financials Set Ship Market Value to Last Minimum Bid. Maximum Orders Rule: Fixed Limit Ship Orders Cap (Only applies to Fixed Limit): 10 Minimum Bid Increment for Auction: 1

Fish Default

Catch Specified curve that represents a medium between preset high and low technology options. Set for 75% of maximum catch at 50% stock.



Net recruitment Logistic

Regulation None to start; players can self-regulate. Facilitator willing to impose regulation if (enough) players agree.

Appendix 2 Administering and Managing Regulation as an Instructor

Regulation is the newest addition to the game and is the most experimental. For most in-class games, regulation is probably unnecessary. However, regulation can be very useful for asynchronous games and for certain pedagogical goals. 1) Regulation as a Comparison One way to demonstrate the value of property rights is to require permits for one game and not for another. In classes where there are a sufficient number of students to allow two games to be played simultaneously, the instructor can set one game to begin with a certain number of permits. These should be chosen to be less than or equal to the maximum sustainable yield for the fishery.

Initial Permit Number per team ≤ Maximum recruitment/Number of teams Imposing permits at the beginning of the game allows for comparison of the experience in the two fisheries. Comparisons can be made between profits, fish levels, and student experience. 2) Self-regulation During a game, especially in asynchronous mode, participants may negotiate self-regulatory agreements. In some cases, they may turn to the instructor to administer or enforce these agreements. If you, as the instructor, hope to encourage self-regulation, you should mention at the beginning of the game that regulation is possible. In most cases, a self-regulatory agreement will fail to occur. If it does, it is likely to take one of these forms:

a. Permits. Students may request that the instructor create and allocate fishing quotas (permits) according to a negotiated agreement. This is easily done by simply allocating the requested permits to the teams via the Monitor page.

b. Penalties for non-compliance. Students may ask instructors to impose financial penalties on

teams that violate agreements. Real world precedent for this exists in the relationship between some self-regulatory organizations and regulators. Examples include both fisheries (Iceland cod fishery) and industries like nuclear power (the Institute for Nuclear Power Operators).



Penalties and rewards can be imposed by selling 0 boats to teams for positive or negative amounts.

c. Taxes. In our years of experience with the game, participants have requested the

administration of a tax only once. In the current game, the only way to administer a tax on fishing is to use the direct boat auction system. Taxes can be charged by selling 0 boats to each team with a tax liability for the calculated amount of the tax.



Appendix 3 Tips for Playing Asynchronously

For most of its history, Fishbanks has been played in a single, live class session. However, asynchronous, multi-class play can be an exciting alternative. In asynchronous play, a Fishbanks year usually corresponds to a class session. An example schedule for a class meeting on Monday and Wednesday could be:

Sunday at 11:00 PM: All trades must be completed. Monday at class start: All orders and allocations must be completed. Tuesday at 11:00 PM: All trades must be completed. Wednesday at class start: All orders and allocations must be completed. Etc.

It is often a good idea to send out a reminder email before the first few deadlines. The instructor must log in to the administrator pages and advance from round to round (just) after each deadline. At the beginning or end of each class, the instructor may then show the current asset positions of the competing teams or other data, or post these overviews in the course website or folder. Expected Outcomes In asynchronous games, participants have much more time to do analysis and negotiate agreements compared to workshop mode. In some past cases, in-class negotiations have even led to formal written contracts. (See Appendix 2 in the Debriefing Guide.) The opportunity for such negotiations can facilitate continuous learning and interaction between students in the class, and it helps to keep the entire course in the student’s mind. One potential issue is that offline negotiations can lead to real conflict among the participants. In one class, a negotiated agreement was violated by a leading team, leading to anger and frustration on the part of both parties. If well guided by the instructor, these emotions serve as teaching moments to reinforce the difficulty of negotiating and enforcing agreements and serve an important pedagogical purpose. However, such emotions can also cause real antipathy, and the instructor should be watchful for student conflict. As an example of an attempt at negotiation and the resulting anger over the violation of an agreement, see the email below.

Dear King of the Atlantic and Pacific, I’m reaching to you in the name of the Atlantic Ocean fishing companies; representing 10 of the 11. Last year, we decided to collude to make fishing sustainable in our beloved Atlantic Ocean…EVERYBODY signed up (all 11 teams). We roughly estimated that if every company



limited itself to 7 ships, we would be able to fish in a sustainable way in our dear and beloved Atlantic Ocean and to maximize our global profits. And so we expected every company to own maximum 7 ships at the start of this year. But when we saw the amount of ships per company during today’s fishing conference, we realized that Team 10 had been involved in criminal activity since they purchased more ships that they agreed to. We asked fishing company 10 if they perhaps misunderstood what they signed, but they answered us with a big smile that they did it on purpose. As a consequence, we all are really upset, and would like to see what are our options are (you mentioned at the beginning of year 0 that everything was possible). Our first idea would be to kick fishing team 10 out of the Atlantic, and, for example send them to the Pacific where sustainability (and max welfare) doesn’t seem to be a main concern. But we were also thinking of… imposing a big financial penalty for every single boat they have above 7…



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124–142. Hardin G. (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162:1243-1248. Kurlansky M. (1997) Cod: a biography of the fish that changed the world. New York, Penguin. Lloyd, W. (1833) Two lectures on the checks to population. Oxford: Collingwood. Meadows, DH, Meadows, DL, Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the Limits. Post Mills, VT, Chelsea Green. Moxnes, E. (1998) Not only the tragedy of the commons, misperceptions of bioeconomics.

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Ostrom, E., Poteete, A., Janssen, M. (2010) Working Together: Collective Action, the Commons, and Multiple Methods in Practice. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

Ostrom, E., Hess, C. (eds) (2007) Understanding Knowledge as a Commons: From Theory to Practice, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.

Rosenberg, A., Bolster, W., Alexander, K., et al. (2004) The history of ocean resources: modeling cod biomass using historical records. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 3:84-90.

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Documents

Fishbanks Simulation Instructors' Guide.setup and Player Briefing